#losing to the learning curve

[evanlrodriguez]

Desperately trying to learn how to draw my babygirl

[pumpkinrootbeer]

hello . SUICIDE!

[eldritchblaaaast]

managed to successfully hunt game for the first time in KCD when a roe-deer spawned on the path ahead of me near rattay (after siccing mutt on a hare north of ledetchko and then immediately getting insta-killed by bandits)

[spittinwatches]

This is so messy but tmh silhouette exploration

[salesperson-competition]

Not only have I been reblogging to the wrong blog but I accidentally made one of the polls 24 hours instead of a week oops

I think I might be like…really good at running a poll blog guys

[batsplat]

everybody is rightfully excited about the upcoming season but whilst i think if he adapts well and keeps his head on straight marc will win the title, i do think people on this platform (and reddit) are highly underestimating pecco and honestly if marc does any marcism like last season where he just crashed and crashed and kept on crashing, the title could just as easily go to pecco. also pecco’s racecraft is very good and the victor of their wheel to wheel battles will not be a given. the cutbacks alone!! plus on his « specialty » tracks he is very very fast. and he’s younger. i also get the feeling ducati will not let marc try any mind games or whatever and he’ll try to be cordial as he’s the one going into an established team and he won’t get preferential treatment which would kind of be a first. not to meantion pecco will be his toughest teammate to date (except maybe pedrosa but a lot went right for marc when he was racing pedrosa before he literally started sabotaging bike development slow him down). i kind of want pecco to show how good he is and if marc has to win then like i beg it’s at least not a walkover haha

welllllllll idk I was kindaaaaaa there mid-season, I'm not sure if I'm still there. it's not even as much the wins that I find a bit spooky as I did the sepang/catalunya ii performances, admittedly with the proviso you only get limited prop points for going fast and then crashing. idk, I do think at a basic level the case for the prosecution is pretty compelling. the gp23 was a lot slower than the gp24, marc was still adapting to the ducati and was that fast anyway, marc's crashes were often explainable by having to push the package too hard.... does all sound reasonable yeah

that being said, it's not an open and shut case for me. I think it's a bit tricky because my sense is the commentariat is basically united in thinking it's a slam dunk situation next this year, and I am more inclined to defer to their expertise than I would be in a sport where I know what I'm talking about. idk, I don't think it's quite as cut and dried (to continue to mix metaphors) as they do that marc's going to wipe the floor with pecco - I think that's a completely plausible scenario, but not a foregone conclusion. my open questions are based more on like,, logic than they are on understanding motorcycle racing. but this is what I would make the case for the defence:

while marc's speed of adaptation is undoubtedly impressive, that doesn't mean there's any reason there's more adaptation to come - this is probably roughly as good as it gets. this is low-hanging fruit and I don't feel like many people are arguing that marc will dominate because he'll get even better with the ducati, but I thought I'd get it out of the way

this is a bit trickier to articulate but... let's see what we can do. so we know that the gp23 was slower than the gp24. but we also know that a marc-level talent could ride the bike close to its theoretical performance ceiling, which is closer to the gp24 than other gp23's made it look. 'outperforming the bike' is one of those stock phrases that are useful but obviously not true, like you can't LITERALLY outperform your machinery, that's not how physics works. what you're basically denoting is that a rider is outperforming what we believe to be its 'natural' place in the pecking order, often by riding very close to the limit. given the michelin rear tyre, the peaks of the gp23 were very hard to access this year, which is of course where marc's immense natural talent comes in. but that does mean that... I kinda feel like,, logically, surely there's a problem with the idea that you can just rub off another three tenths or whatever to estimate how fast marc theoretically would've been on the gp24? like surely it is at least possible that pecco and jorge and occasionally that other guy were riding very close to the ceiling of the gp24 - it's just that this ceiling is a lot easier to access in a controllable way. so in that sense, a better bike might just... take that last extra bit of talent out of the equation a little bit. I guess the comparison I'd make is... so I think we can probably safely assume that nobody, including any of casey's rivals at the time, could have done with the ducati anything like what casey did. but when casey moved to the honda, at the time a more rideable package, casey wasn't completely brutalising dani on the rare occasion where they both had all their limbs intact. so in a way, a 'better' bike does at least somewhat neutralise that particular strength. pecco readily admits he needs a well-sorted package to be good - but crucially, when he does have such a package, he does seem to be very fast. idk, I just don't feel like it works to pretend like we can talk about a uniform swing here, like surely it's more complicated than that

yes, I do broadly agree that people underestimate pecco. I also think, and I know this probably isn't a great time to voice this opinion, that it's still possible for pecco to become better as a rider. idk man, I really would struggle to say that I felt his 2024 campaign was worse than his two title-winning seasons. if anything, his edge in raw pace felt more pronounced, and not just because of the bike factor. now, look, I do think he was an idiot at times and there are some forms of idiocy that are incurable but... I'm not sure pecco's malaise falls into this category. first off, I think he's clocked that he needs to take sprints more seriously - which, okay, yes, does feel a bit belated but fine. secondly, the racing incidents thing... idk, I live in hope. if he has another clash with marc then this time round it's fine as long as you're taking both of you out, because now he's your title rival so whatever. if it's another rider... I mean maybe this is just in his dna as a rider but it doesn't HAVE to be. valentino please, I know you think sports psychology is fake but I could fix him. and thirdly, the other crashes... y'know, some of that is inevitable, but something like the misano ii crash where it's not a riding thing as much as it is a decision-making thing, I do again kinda feel like you could probably tackle that. idk, one thing about pecco is that he does have the capacity to Get Better, which is rarer than you'd think really and maybe he'll do it again

the marc crash thing. yeah, idk! it's super feasible to me that this was just a function of marc over-riding a poor package and that he goes back to posting prime!marc numbers of crashes - which with the exception of 2015 were mostly like... okay in races, less okay in practise but idk clearly his body must be built different. but also, maybe not! maybe you just crash this generation of bikes more when you're pushing hard! maybe there's just a lot of races and inevitably you're going to crash a few times when you're constantly riding that fast! marc assembled a decent number of dnf's for himself this year - and while a few had Something Odd attached to them, some of them were just ... crashes. again, it's plausible marc gets it completely under control and pecco doesn't but... yeah. foregone conclusion? idk man

*wiggles hand* nebulous age-based/worn-down-by-injuries factor plus the qualifying question. idk I just won't entirely believe the marc raw qualifying pace is back until I actually see it. just feels like the thing that goes with age so you're kinda primed to be on the look out for it anyway. and also say what you will about pecco as a complete package, but that man is fast over one lap. personally I do kindaaaaaa suspect pecco will win the qualifying h2h this year - doesn't mean it'll matter as long as marc can regularly qualify in the same general bit of the grid. which feels likely. but still. idk, in general there's still a few unanswered questions about how this marc compares to 2019!marc, and obviously you'll never get definitive answers to that but this year will make some things clearer on that front

anyway, I still think marc will win the title, and if you put a gun to my head I'd probably say with a pretty comfortable margin without getting to a ridiculous territory. I actually think you're completely right about pecco's strengths - I think he's going to be dominant some weekends and I even think that pecco might come out and win most of their extended wheel-to-wheel encounters. but the thing about marc is that neither of those things necessarily matter. if you look through prime!marc's title winning seasons, he generally either wasn't posting a) all that many wins OR b) a great h2h in direct w2w duels. exception is 2014 I suppose. wins titles despite losing silverstone 2013, catalunya and mugello 2016, austria and motegi 2017, qatar and austria 2018, qatar, austria and silverstone 2019 - ofc he also wins a few but it tends not to be a positive h2h... big exception really is 2014. and with the ducati margin over the field I would be expecting him to post more wins than in a 2016-type chaotic season

where marc really gets you is relentless pace and a degree of consistency in that pace. so you get a 2018-type season where marc can afford to have an argentina *gestures* whatever that was - but all his rivals are so busy tripping over their own feet that you get to half season and turn around and his only 'title rival' is five hundred year old valentino, who is in pee two in the standings on the sheer power of not binning it every other race. or, okay, vinales also wasn't crashing but he did that trick where he just doodled around in the shadow realm for a whole stretch of races. and this is where pecco's problem is - he just lost a title in a season where he won eleven races. I'm not saying I think that'll happen this year, but like,,,,, this is the issue right, there's a world in which pecco's raw pace is extremely respectable in comparison to marc's but the title winning margin is still comfortable,, because marc's bad days are mostly pee two and pecco's bad days are... remember that aragon sprint where you blinked and he was suddenly fighting with fabio? that. idk, I basically think that if pecco rides a perfect season, he has a fair shot, but there's just more plausible paths to the title for marc. which doesn't mean it's a done deal but does just make marc very much the likely winner to me

about the ducati box dynamics, idk man, who knows. I don't actually have much faith in ducati's skills at rider management, not least since I did watch them get bullied by marc like half a year ago in a completely avoidable situation. I mean ideally they just completely lose control and it becomes a bloodbath, but seeing as that's fairly unlikely... you are right in that idt it'll be as easy for marc to steer ducati's development direction because there also just won't be the same dependency relationship (unless some stuff changes a lot in the near future). does ducati's tolerance for mind games really matter? ducati seems good at figuring out how bikes work in recent times, less good with human beings since basically forever. I do like the idea of another portimao situation, preferably with them 1-2 this time, just to see the ashen faces in the ducati box. but also, some stuff can't be reigned in!! yamaha TRIED with valentino and jorge, they also would've loved to tell both of them 'no mind games', but you'd have to say it didn't really work. pecco and marc aren't valentino and jorge, but they will inevitably play mind games. you play mind games with your competitors, it's part of the game to some degree or other. worst case scenario is that marc doesn't really bother since he's winning so clearly, so. hopefully we can avoid that

(also as a fan of Narratives I do kind of want to see marc pushed. like the whole charm of 2008-09 is that valentino is having to operate from a place where in at least one of those years, he probably wasn't the 'faster' rider compared to his title rival but managed to win anyway. poured his heart and soul into the psychological warfare front because that's how he had to win. and he almost pulled off something far more drastic in 2015 with quite a radical pace deficit, where at best he was the third fastest rider that year and by a comfortable margin. idk, that's fun! I like that kind of arc where ideally the older rider doesn't have this massive raw pace margin anymore, or has SOME kind of limiting factor - even if it's that marc can't afford to crash a million times (though going by the 2024 season apparently he's not too worried about that) - so they have to use other skills to win the title. ideally your wits and nerve. but obviously that only works if you don't have a massive pace advantage over your opponent, which is objectively very nice for you but also is kinda.... idk, it's more satisfying if marc actually has to draw on something new and interesting to win the title, something he's learned since the last time he won the title. if marc dominates the title, my response will be 'wow, marc sure is a very good rider', which I think we all already knew. if marc slips pecco poison to win the title decider, THEN we're talking)

in conclusion. I too would like the margins to be kept respectable. the way I usually operate in title fights is I kinda automatically at least casually root for whoever's currently in second, because there's something wrong with my brain and I don't like winning. I mean, mainly I am hoping for a) a competitive title fight, and b) good racing. since (b) seems like a bust at least for another year, we do kinda need (a). idk I think a lot of fans can just kinda enjoy winning for winning's sake and I envy them but... the thing about 2019 is that it was just about watchable because the quality of racing was consistently very high. qatar, mugello, austria, silverstone, misano, thailand, phillip island... even ones that aren't 'classics' like cota or argentina or catalunya generally had interesting stuff going on. this stuff matters!! it mattered that valentino back in the honda days had a principled aversion to being in the top five at the end of a first lap, just to spice things up a bit. this year we had a competitive title fight and a lot of godawful races. the action is almost always concentrated in the first half of the race or even the first few laps, after which it becomes exceedingly processional. and, look, none of this is the fault of the riders except insofar as they're not testing michelin tyres, but it's still bad! next this year could become a real slog if the title winning margin is massive and the races are dull as shit. but also, what can you do. hopefully pecco will try not to roll over and die

[mp3minded]

thank you to flo milli and mango, for keeping me sane through this first piece uwu ♡

[danothan]

i’ve been having a hard time realizing and grieving my naivety/lack of intuition, especially relating to autism and ocd. there’s smth so helpless in feeling like you can’t trust yourself. but i think i’m starting to reach a point of balance. ik i don’t have the best judgment, but maybe my intuition can be the kindness i judged as naivety

i just couldn’t accept the idea that kindness (as far as i understood it at least) could have led me into harm’s way, especially bc protecting myself feels so “cruel,” so maybe that’s not the narrative i have to accept. sometimes i feel like i’m slipping into old habits when i catch myself giving someone a second chance, or the benefit of the doubt, but it’s not the same now as it was before. kindness never led me into harm’s way, it was my lack of trust in myself. i don’t need to dial in my kindness, i just need to strengthen my trust. i need to practice informed kindness

[studioeisa]

HI ILYSM. 8I PLS...

𝐌𝐈𝐗-𝐀𝐍𝐃-𝐌𝐀𝐓𝐂𝐇 𝐅𝐀𝐍𝐅𝐈𝐂 𝐖𝐑𝐈𝐓𝐄𝐑 𝐀𝐒𝐊𝐒 ★ lemme give u the biggest KITH!!! ily most <3

8I. WHICH OF YOUR FICS DID YOU SPEND THE MOST AMOUNT OF TIME WRITING? DID ANYTHING SUBSTANTIAL GET CUT FROM IT?

with lost in translation being the longest body of work i have up (so far), it seems like a vouchsafed answer. i started writing it way before i started this blog, purely as a love letter -ish to hao. it eventually made a lot of sense to publish it on his birthday. it sits at nearly 26k words, but it definitely had substantial cuts! a whole, whole lot. [spoilers abound -ish] they have the tender moment at the beach but don't confess. there's instead a bunch of near-misses after, a scene where hao eavesdrops on mc airing her concerns, a scene where he gets drunk and almost messes around w/someone else (which mc sees and oooh, tension), and then a scene where the two are filming on jeju island for GOSE. that's where the confession happens! but i think that was an extra ~10k words, and at the time, i couldn't manage to iron it all out like i might have wanted. i felt a lot of those later parts were also rather ooc, so i cut them all out :") i have some scenes of them in a relationship that are raw as hell, but, yes!

[hana-bobo-finch]

I’m not super pleased with how my mini moderate length comic is turning out so far but I am enjoying working on it. I will say however that OH MAN it was a BAD idea making so much of it take place in a hospital room because there are NO opportunities for interesting visuals. Probably the least interesting place to have an extended conversation is a sterile white room. Maybe I could twist it and pretend that oh, that was the point, it’s meant to feel confining, even if in all reality that is not the case in the slightest

[bigcats-birds-and-books]

okay so it turns out i'm Very Bad At Video Games, Actually, but in SPITE of that, bro and i are having fun playing through alan wake together finally

[sunnythefreakus]

more flag creators should look into vector software because there's so many flags i see with pixellated low resolution symbols and unintentionally messed up lines and the part of me that took graphic design courses cries out in pain every time

[rxttenfish]

honestly miranda's a lot more insecure than she will ever let anyone else know about or even mentally recognize and realize in herself - its just also in such specific and bizarre ways that no one ever picks up on it

[mosspapi]

The free trial of clip studio paint is such BULLSHIT man. What the fuck do you mean I can't save any files until I buy it. How am I supposed to trial the goddamn thing if I have to do everything in one sitting. I have never once had a free trial do this shit in my life. Idc how good the program is that's just fucking bullshit dude

[averinthine]

grappling with the question of "okay i've been too disabled to work for like a year with no signs of that changing, but what should i actually Do with my time that might be in some way slightly fulfilling without causing The Woes". getting back into music has been one answer, but i need at least one other. i'm thinking that learning a language really properly might be the most promising idea.

[riccissance]

just started a new lottielee fic and am mostly in the editing stage for the most recent chapter of my jackishauna fic. i only started writing last year and it's completely taken over my life omfg i can barely think about anything other than the soccer cannibals. this show definitely rewired my brain lmao