#this is barely analysis its like summary and commentary

[thatneoncrisis]

what do you think about the overlap of remmick and john, as two characters who were fucked over by colonial powers just to end up BEING colonial powers

OOOOOOH good question intriguing question i LOVE shit like this thank you

very long going under a readmore

i think the nature of theirs stories have made it so they are both participating in the systems that cannibalized their people, homelands, language and resources, but they go about it differently just bc of scale

remmick is like, one guy. a vampire yes, one who can do vampire hivemind shit, but hes one fucking guy. he was getting his ass beat by those indigenous vampire hunters, the damage he is capable of is on a person to person scale. he actively benefits from white supremacy as he is white passing, theres still lingering anti catholic and immigrant sentiments in the US during the 30s but for all intents and purposes he can "go stealth" in a way john cant he can reap the benefits of exploiting more at risk communities. his goal is also small fries- gluttonous and sadistic yes, but most charitably he wants sammy so he can see his family again since vampires are locked out of heaven

john. has committed a genocide on a scale unknown by man. he then proceeded to ressurrect a fraction of the population, all from his own home country, and then actively gatekeeps or destroys or manipulates any information about the world pre resurrection. his goal is also just blatantly the most petty vindictive shit on the planet. no, it is by no means reasonably to hunt down the distant descendants of people you were mad at, people who literally dont even benefit from the evils committed by those original guys anymore, bc you cannot stand the idea of any of them possibly being happy or alive. ultimately i think john represents a corrosive power fantasy. he has the power and tools to reshape society in any way, and he just replicates the one that actively fucked up the world in the first place. theyre all speaking english, they doing feudalism, the main religion is basically different christian sects, they terrorize non house settlements jsut bc they have the manpower and resources to do so.

i think this is an area wherein the locked tomb being understood as "raceblind" is kneecapping its ability to dig into this sort of shit. race as we understand it is jsut another invention of these kinds of world powers turning people against one another so there can be a steady supply of second class laborers, someone who is lesser than so there is no chance of meaningfully arguing why they do not get to reap the benefits of the imperial core (the people who make that core function in the first place). why do slaves need human rights if they arent human, ect ect. im not saying tlt would automatically be better if like, gideon was literally a slave (shes not, there is a material difference between chattel slavery and indentured servitude), but the way house citizens understand and interact with civilians on other planets is so.

we see it through individual lenses of ideology, pal wants to help everyone on new rho bc he values all life, pyrrha wants to cut and run bc she values the people close to her, crown is empathetic to the suffering of others but still clearly has other priorities. new rho is given to us via selective clips, a literal childs eyes. we understand this is a place with the exploitation of sexual labor, the teachers FIRST THOUGHT upon meeting pyrrha and learning thats not nonas dad is that shes pimping out a girl she thought was 14. this is horrifying, but i always go back to the sixth, where its some great honor to be designated to the informal sex soldiers in their military where they just go out and fuck other bored recruits in the reserves.

its goddamn bonkers when you think about it for longer than a minute- their society is still suffering the slow collapse of dwindling numbers, how long until they expand whos allowed in the gene pool out of desperation? how long until they find its easier to have some desperate non house citizen, wither through material coercion like money or transport, or more insidious means? the cohort has the power- it is The Power, and i dont really believe in a situation where a bunch of dorks raised on huckleberry finn are able to keep this kind of rot from festering. theyre the most morally rigid house, beyond like the eighth or whatever, but they still have child soldiers and use dead bodies for indefinite labor. i may trust palamedes and camilla but i do not trust "the sixth" to be better than the standard john has set. kind of a blessing everything started imploding before they could get to that point, if it hasnt already happened

uh anyway sinnners is more able to blatantly dig into these kinds of dynamics by banking on the audiences existing ideas about racial tensions and communities. the brothers made their club as a safe space for their people, and extended it to people who have already established a bond or face similar treatment. im sure the chows didnt have a place to cut loose in a town like that, id easily buy they were the only asian family there, let alone specifically chinese. it was a space that could recognize those differences but understand what was important, what this would mean to people who really had nothing to look forward to than labor for people who barely consider them human

i think this makes marys mistake sooooooo compelling. shes a white passing woman in a room full of her black friends and acquaintances. she said her mother practically raised the boys, she must be acutely aware of how differently she is treated. she keeps pushing stack about why he didnt pursue her, as if extreme racial violence is something that is easily overcome via the power of love. if he does truly love her, which i think he did, i really would understand the choice to leave her be so both of them arent under scrutiny and, you know, possibly lynched. i think mary is kind of emblematic of liberal dream of a post racial world. where you can jsut plug your ears and say I LOVE BLACK PEOPLE really loudly and then act confused as to why black* people may be apprehensive to a bunch of random ass creepy fuckin hillbillies want to party with them so bad. like remmick tries puling that card too, he chastises them over building a place that is supposed to be "inclusive" but will not allow people who could VERY EASILY disturb that peace inside. he keeps trying to put the ball in their court, prey on them being the better person, when its jsut the fact of the matter that they have no reason to trust his intentions. but mary i feel has this urge to appeal to them, to prove that racial divides arent necessary, money is money ect. and while i dont believe in self segregation as a long term solution, it is quite frankly deeply ignorant of her to keep pressing the issue. and then she gets them all killed. lol. also fun fact i didnt know that was fucking Hailee Steinfeld good lord. *including the chens i have to keep tossing in qualifiers well be here all day

so uh tlt and sinners understand the kinds of drastic shifts in personhood being the product of systematic exploitation and assimilation entails. its monstrous it cannot produce anything only take, recreate, and or eradicate. the slogan "kill the indian spare the child" especially comes to mind, the belief that western ideals and thinking, literature, fashion, language, government and economy are the only true way to be human while anything else is like, a hedonist corruption. something striking that stood out to me was remmick compelling his new congregation to dance with them, forcing them all to step in line to his music, relive his glory, in stark opposition to the earlier scene of them all dancing their own way to the same song with sammy. by contrast john uh. he doesnt even do that. hes kind of united by an identity of being kiwi and not maori. thats the way i read it, everything in his new world IS just neoclassical bullshit. i think about how harrow and gideon dont even know what maori IS as like, a concept. and something that really connects with me as a black american. the people i idnetify most strongly with did not like. exist as a group over 500 years ago. i dont know what it is to be west african, i cant speak the language i dont know the culture ive never set foot on the continent. who would i be if the transatlantic slave trade didnt happen. who would harrow and gideon be if they got to grow up in aotearoa. and thats something that solidifies the divide between john and remmick. remmick can only find ways to manipulate the system in his favor, john just made it that way from the start, to uphold some distant ideal of what he remembered the world to be

i think both stories treat the structures and mechanics of colonization and resource exploitation as a sort of disease that will inevitably eat its host and die. johns empire is not sustainable- he keeps killing planets, keeps displacing their population, his houses have notable population crises, having PAPER is a fucking luxury and their most powerful members are quite literally fueled by death- what happens when theyre out of people to die. rimmick is a vampire, it is very notable that vampires arent like zombies, theyre not brainless they cannot afford to turn the majority of people on earth into them or they fucking run out of food. what remmick was doing, not just killing those people but explicitly converting them, puts more and more strain on his ability for each on of them to survive if they ept multiplying at that rate. would they have stopped once remmick got sammy? whos to say. i sure as hell dont believe him

[semper-legens]

142. Madam, by Phoebe Wynne

Owned?: No, library Page count: 435 My summary: Young Classics teacher Rose is ready to prove herself - shape some minds, make a real difference. When she’s offered a job at the prestigious Caldonbrae Hall, educating the young daughters of the gentry, she has her hesitations... but with her terminally ill mother needing nursing care, she could do with the money. However, when she gets to Caldonbrae, her misgivings turn to concern. What dark secrets beat at the rotten heart of the school? And what is Rose’s role in its future? My rating: 2.5/5 My commentary:

I wanted to like this, I really did. A feminist tale at a spooky school where weird shit’s going on, in the style of a Gothic novel? Hell yeah, that is exactly my jam. But in execution, it just failed, and failed, and failed, and failed. I think the Big Secret at the school was meant to be a mystery, but if you have any vague knowledge of this sort of genre, you’ll be able to see what that is from page 2. I kept thinking ‘well, surely there will be some other twist’ but nope, just the surface level idea. And yeah, it’s pretty surface level. Not a lot of deeper analysis going on here.

So the big thing is that the school is in fact just training these girls to be the perfect wives to England’s elite, with an abusive system in place to keep them focused on their Value, moulding them to be the wives their prospective husbands will want. The trouble with it is that it never really goes any deeper than the ‘wouldn’t this be fucked up’ stage - I kept internally comparing it to Only Ever Yours, which I read earlier. That does a great job at showing exactly how this sort of brainwashing has fucked up these girls’ minds, whereas the girls here don’t really have enough individuality for that kind of thing to land. They’re mostly an amorphous victimish blob. And some of the means by which they are victimised are less horrific and more unintentionally funny. Like when Rose walks in on a lesson where the girls are being taught to sexually pleasure a man, it’s too absurd to be horrifying.

Because the focus is on Rose, but Rose is not an interesting protagonist. She’s too wide-eyed, too naive about her situation. She reads like a man-hating feminist from some MRA screed, and she teaches all her lessons with an obvious bias as opposed to letting the girls form their own opinions. That reads...weirdly, it’s supposed to be Rose advocating individualism over brainwashing, but really reads like My Brainwashing Is Better Than Yours. And she barely does anything through the whole plot! Or at least, her actions have not many consequences.

The school itself is too ridiculous to be believed. Okay, so the school recruits its teachers from past failed pupils, so as to not alert the world to their wrongdoing. But then they recruit Rose, supposedly as an experiment, and let her see the more shocking things they are doing, and also blackmail her via her sick mum? It blows up in their faces, because of course it does. How was that supposed to work? Of course Rose blew the whistle, of course she didn’t acclimate. Why would she?

There’s also The Race Thing, which should be mentioned. Rose notes early on that near all of the girls at the school are white, other than a smattering of Japanese students who are confined to their own area. Okay, sure, Britain’s elite are racists, that scans. But later it’s revealed that the Japanese girls are allowed at the school because they’re training the white girls at being geisha which...geisha being sex workers is largely a fabrication, geisha are artists and dancers and occupy a different place in society to sex workers, and given that barely any of the Japanese girls get any characterisation whatsoever it really just smacks of racism and fetishisation. Ugh.

Next up, over to some non-fiction, for a look at the idea of being transgender in the Past Times.

[evabellasworld]

Our Roots

For Star Wars POC Week 2020

Day 3: Favourite Planet

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Summary: Erhan Wuxar took Odd Eye to his home planet, Zeltros, where they shared an intimate moment with each other.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Standing in front of the cargo bay on Coruscant without her clone gear, Odd Eye was tapping her foot numerous times as she flipped through the pages of her horror novel, waiting for someone. It had been almost an hour since she stood there, expecting Erhan to arrive. She’s not surprised, of course, considering that this isn’t her first time he was late to everything.

“Odd Eye,” she heard him call her name. Odd Eye glanced at the tall, Zeltron man, with light red skin and blue, monolid eyes, along with black hair that partly covered his forehead. Instead of his usual Jedi robe, he wore a white tight singlet that was covered with a black jacket that he got from a thrift store and old, torn jeans.

She blinked once as she admired his slender stature. Usually, she prefers muscles but in this case, she’ll make that as an exception. But at the same time, she wasn’t pleased that she had to wait longer for Erhan Wuxar, who actually invited her to follow him out of Coruscant. “You’re thirty minutes late,” she crossed her arm as she closed her book.

“Yeah, sorry about that,” Erhan chuckled, handing her a bouquet of lilac that he just bought from a florist along the way. “I was too busy choosing a gift that matches one of your eyes.”

The clone commander’s puffy cheeks turned deep crimson as she held her flowers that he had gifted to her. She had never seen such a wonderful thing like this before. Growing up on Kamino, which was surrounded by oceans and storms, flowers were non-existent throughout her whole life. Odd Eye took a sniff of the pale violet flowers and felt a strong, sweet scent with her nose, making her eyes widened.

“Do you like it?” he asked, smiling.

“They’re so pretty,” Odd Eye praised, glancing at his eyes with her warm gaze. “I’ve never really gotten flowers before, or even get a chance to feel them.”

“A beautiful woman like you deserves a beautiful flower,” Erhan gave a wink, much to Odd Eye’s giggle.

She was initially mad at him for arriving later than the time that he himself had decided, but after receiving a bouquet of fresh lilacs, she can’t help but forgive him for his grave scent. After all, they’re both off-duty from war, much to her surprise. Like her brothers and sisters, Odd Eye was bred for war, and having her own emotions and complex thoughts were often discouraged by the Kaminoans.

“Well, general-”

“Odd Eye, we’re off-duty,” he let out a soft laugh. “You can call me by my first name, or Prince Charming if you want to.”

Her chest rose as she tightened her smile towards his last sentence. She does find him charming, but at the same time, he tends to be vain, especially with his looks, though Odd Eye does find him good-looking. Out of all Jedi Generals, why did I end up with someone like him?

“Well, Erhan,” she corrected herself. “Thank you for your lovely gift but I think we should get moving, yeah? After all, time is precious, and we shouldn’t waste them.”

“Of course, milady,” he nodded as he accompanied her to the cargo ship side-by-side, without any strange looks from lecherous men or clone-hating citizens. Odd Eye had dealt with them whenever she’s hanging out with her batchmates downtown. But with just her long-sleeved shirt and pants, no one recognized her as a clone, but rather, as an ordinary citizen living on Coruscant.

They sat next to each other, with Odd Eye getting the window seat. As the ship took off and jumped into hyperspace, she continued with her horror novel while Erhan read his book on economics, while checking on her every few minutes, just to make sure she's comfortable.

"You okay?" he wondered, glancing at his commander.

"Yeah, I'm good," she took a glimpse of him, before continuing to read. "What about you?"

"I'm just reading about the economy. What about you? How's the story coming along?"

"Well, Heslete just arrived at the hotel, you know, checking with some creepy receptionist."

"And what is your commentary at the scene so far?" he raised a question, causing her to think critically like a literature student in university, not that she doesn't mind.

"From what I gathered so far," Odd Eye began her interpretations. "The hotel was described as old and musty, which means it was there for a long time and the people at the hotel don't seem to be bothered to maintain the place, which means that they might be going bankrupt and was close to shutting down many times."

"Interesting analysis," Erhan stroked his chin. "But can tell me more about the heroine, like why is she going to an old hotel in the first place? Why not go to a better one with better facilities and better scenery, you know?"

"In the first few chapters, Hestele had experienced a terrible month. She had to finalize her divorce with her husband, she had to sell her house, and on top of that, she lost a job after working for more than a decade, which spells financial crisis for our main character, hence why she’s on vacation in an old hotel which tends to be cheap.”

As they jumped out from hyperspace, the duo arrived at the purplish planet with yellow tints and a hint of light blue, Odd Eye was marvelled as they entered into the atmosphere, she was surprised when she saw the sky painted with the first colour that she saw on the planet itself. 

Zeltros was where Erhan was born before he was discovered by a Jedi who saw potential in him. Even though he returned after so many years away from Coruscant, he yearns for a lifestyle filled with fun and joy, which his former master tried to suppress from him. He was harsh on him, often belittling him for acting too ‘feminine’ and soft. Fuck my master, he cursed him. I can do whatever I want, without anyone telling me what to do and how to act.

The ship touched the ground of a docking bay on the surface of the planet and Erhan escorted Odd Eye with him, surrounded by civilians. For once, they weren’t Jedi and clones, but a couple, who have feelings for each other but never confessed. 

“So, now what?” Odd Eye asked, pressing her book against her chest. “Where are we going?”

“We’ll be relaxing on the beach,” he answered. “Hope you brought swimsuits if you know what I mean.”

She was flustered by his words, but she was so excited as well that she almost brushed her hands against his. Erhan could only smile as he grabbed her hand and led her outside the station, surrounded by a busy crowd and small trees and bushes as decorations, which was rare in both Coruscant and Kamino.

“I’ve never seen this many trees in the city before,” she pointed out. 

“Zeltrons tend to sense other people’s emotions, so we plant some greens to help us calm down,” he explained, as they both got inside the hovercab. “Take us to Yellow Beach, please.”

“Huh, that is interesting. Wonder why Coruscant doesn’t do the same, considering its part of the Core World.”

“I guess it’s because the Chancellor is too busy with the war effort, hence we don’t see much improvement in our infrastructures.”

“Is that so? Then I guess he’s a shit leader with a lot of money,” Odd Eye insulted the leader of the Republic. “Not that I’m with the Separatist or anything-”

He chuckled. “It’s fine, Odd Eye. It’s free speech, and you’re allowed to criticise the Chancellor so you’re good.”

Her eyes widened at the thought of saying something from her mind without getting any form of repercussions. This kind of behaviour was discouraged by the Kaminoans and if she does say something wrong, she might have to say goodbye to her duty as a clone commander of the 666th Battalion. “Okay then, but will he know that I say something about him?”

“What is he, a Sith Lord? Of course not, Odd Eye. He won’t know anything about what you said, or even your thoughts about him, so as I said earlier, you’ll be fine.”

She breathed a sigh of relief as the hovercab made his stop. Erhan paid the driver with a few credits and thanked him as he got out, giving his hand to his commander. She took her hand and climbed out of the cab, gazing at the beach, with pearly white sands and deep blue ocean mixed with light turquoise and sky blue. 

The scenery wasn’t crowded, as it was off-season for any tourist to visit Zeltros. The beach was only filled with some locals who decided it was a good day to relax and enjoy life, which was the culture of Zeltrons. Unlike Coruscant, where people were rushing up and down for work, or Kamino where soldiers were trained to die, Zeltros was a place where happiness is valued over everything else, which seems lazy to some outsiders but Odd Eye, on the other hand, needed relaxation after weeks of fighting in the front lines.

“Do you like it so far?” he asked her, noticing her staring at the view.

“It’s peaceful here,” she said, slurping the scent from the ocean. “I mean, the sea from here, I’ve never actually seen it shimmer like a glitter before. Not even Kamino has this kind of view.”

“Really? Well, that sounds depressing.”

“Not really,” she shook her head. “It’s life, you know. That’s how it was growing up there.”

“Isn’t it boring, you know, being confined inside for too long?”

Everyday training from early in the morning to late at night, and then repeating them all over again. Isn't too boring for me but for the others, though….

“If I have to be honest with you, Erhan, I don’t even know how to answer that question.”

“Fair enough,” he shrugged, as he took her hands again and sat underneath a shady coconut tree, feeling the cool breeze from the ocean. Every time she touches him, for some reason, she feels electricity running in her pulse. Her feet were pressed on top of the white sand, which surprisingly felt soft and warm, despite ]fighting in a desert numerous times.

Erhan took off his jacket, revealing his bare arms. “Kinda hot, don’t you think, Odd Eye?”

“It is a beach with barely any trees around so yeah, it is scorching hot.”

He burst out in laughter again, much to her confusion. “I’m sorry, I shouldn’t be laughing,” he cleared her throat. “That was rude of me to do so. It’s just that the way you talk though, you seem to be fairly observant, actually.”

“Is there anything wrong with being observant, Erhan?” she raised one of her eyebrows. 

“No, it’s just profound of you to notice every little detail within your surroundings. Even as a Jedi, I tend to just ignore them until someone points out, you know?”

“Judging by what I’ve seen so far, you’re one of the most unconventional Jedi Knights I’ve ever seen in my life,” she roasted him, crossing her arms. “No offence, though.”

He laughed at her remarks, which were actually true. “None were taken, actually. The Jedi lifestyle doesn’t really suit me and my personality, actually. That was the reason why the Council didn’t grant me the rank of a Jedi Master, not that I care.”

“If you feel that being a Jedi doesn’t suit you, then why not leave?” she invoked. “Why stay if you feel restricted by the rules or something?”

“To put that in mind, I don’t really have many credits, to begin with, and also I don’t have proper qualifications to get a job for myself, so yeah, those are the reasons why I had to stay.”

“But you’re not even happy as a Jedi. Why bother, anyway?”

“I could ask you the same question, Odd Eye,” he leaned closer to her. “You don’t seem happy fighting the war and seeing your brothers and sisters die in front of you and yet, you still stay in the GAR? Why is that?”

“Because it’s my duty as a commander to lead my men into battle.”

“Do you ever consider deserting yourself, since being in the GAR makes you miserable?”

She shook her head. “I won’t forgive myself if I abandoned my brothers and sisters in war.”

“It’s kind of ironic that you won’t leave your life as a soldier behind and yet, you asked me why I never left the Jedi Order, is that right, Odd Eye?” he smirked.

“Look, Erhan, our situation is different,” she tried to explain. “You chose to be part of the Jedi Order while I was born to serve the Republic.”

Erhan shook his head in disbelief. “No, I didn’t choose to be a Jedi at all. For all my life, my parents willingly gave me away to an organization which taught me their way of living that hasn't evolved for more than 200 years. Some of my friends like Dahlia and Obi-Wan had a Jedi Master that is kind and considerate while I ended up with a master that tells me to ‘man’ up and don’t be a girl. That was my life until I became a Jedi Knight.”

Odd Eye’s expression grew softer as she blinked for a moment, realizing her harsh words towards him. “Erhan,” she placed her hand on his shoulder. “I’m sorry for being insensitive. It was my mistake for not being aware of my own words. I understand if you don’t forgive me.”

Erhan’s frown cracked into a smile as he squeezed her hand, glancing at her eyes. “I’m not mad at you, milady.”

“Be honest, Erhan.”

“Of course I am, Odd Eye,” he caressed her chin, much to her delight. “I would never lie to you, ever.”

“Are you sure about that?” Odd Eye raised her doubts. “From what I heard, you were quite a casanova to most of the ladies you’ve met.”

“In my defense,” he snickered. “Most of them I met only wanted a fling or a one-night stand. Only a few wanted a committed relationship but I had to reject them since I wasn’t interested.”

“I’m sure they were hurt by your rejections. 

“They were at first, but they accepted it, and moved on with their own lives as well. That’s just how it is, you know. You can’t be selfish when it comes to love.”

“I guess you’re right,” she smiled back, shifting her focus at the ocean view. “Love is giving and unconditional.”

“Like you and your siblings.”

She giggled as she recalled the good memories she had with her batchmates on Kamino, whom she was the closest to, besides the 666th Battalion. Erhan began to stand up, stretching his arms and legs, removing his singlet and pants, revealing his plain, black boxers. Odd Eye felt her cheeks hot as he stared at her. “I’m going for a swim, care to join me?”

“That would be nice, Erhan,” she took up his offer, as she let him guide her into the shallow parts of the ocean.

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Erhan Wuxar and Commander Odd Eye: 

[hazelandglasz]

Memes and Hot Chocolate Therapy - A Sam Wilson Birthday Bang Fic

Memes and Hot Cocoa Therapy

Fic by @hazelandglasz

Art by @daisyridlay

Pairings : Sam Wilson / Steve Rogers / James “Bucky” Barnes, Sam Wilson & Natasha Romanoff

Summary: Sam Wilson loves his blog, his corner of life hacks, recipes, and DIY. He also loves to follow blogs about puppies, recipes, and memes. When he finds a blog that manages to dig up ancient relics, he can't help but be curious and sends an ask to the blogger--more accurately, bloggers. Aka this is the fic where Sam, Steve, and Bucky are ridiculous bloggers who fall in love without even meeting because of how ridiculous and sarcastic they can be. When they meet, sparks fly.

Written for @samwilsonbirthdaybang !!

Sam closes his eyes and rests his head against his apartment door. Working at the VA is rewarding, and much needed for Sam’s own balance, don’t get him wrong. That being said, some days are tougher than others, and today calls for some serious blogging to make him feel better.

He’s tired, exhausted even, but the low purr of the old laptop coming back to life is already like a siren song, a balm on his frayed nerves. While Sam’s computer slowly lights up, he goes to his kitchen to fix himself a serious “pick-me up”, Wilson style.

On his kitchen windowsill, a couple of pigeons coo at him and Sam brings them a handful of chopped up edamame beans--he always keeps a bowl of them for his friends with feathers. He smiles at the birds before pulling out a pan from a drawer. Next, Sam gets all the ingredients he needs: milk, cocoa powder--the good stuff, not the one he puts on top of his tiramisu--, cinnamon, grated coconut, vanilla (beans, no extract--seriously taxing days call for serious hot cocoa), and the honey.

Sam is about to pour the milk into the pan when he stops and thinks. What better post to make on “Sam’s Guide to DIY” than his mama’s cocoa? He takes his phone out of his pocket and gets to work.

One of the best things about his apartment is clearly the kitchen space: great appliances, lots of tabletop space, but more importantly, wonderful natural lighting.

It allows him, even at dusk, to take pictures of the pan and the different ingredients in a way that will barely require any adjustment. Twelve minutes later, his cocoa is ready, the pictures are ready to be posted, and now , Sam can finally indulge.

His blog is his pride and joy, a melting pot of life hacks and feel-good selfies, Sam’s harbour from the storm that life can be when years of war are breathing down one’s neck, carefully crafted and fed with tasteful posts. But the rest of Tumblr? That’s his chance to put said life away, if only for a couple of hours.

Sam follows many different blogs, and he has no shame about it. Puppy owners’ accounts, recipe and body positivity blogs--they all constitute Sam’s dashboard.

And there’s another kind.

The Meme Blogs.

Sam has spent many sleepless nights finding an improbable escape within the ridiculous yet hilarious waves of memes.

In his opinion, none of them are beneath him; sure, sometimes Sam comes to the conclusion that he is, in fact, too old for this shit because what exactly is funny about goats and minerals? He certainly doesn’t know, but you know what, you do you.  

It’s always entertaining, that’s for sure.

And in the sea of blogs dedicated to memes, one in particular never fails to capture Sam’s attention, if only because its author seems just as puzzled as he is by the velocity of the meme life cycle.

“Memetymology”.

It’s a blog dedicated to finding the origins and multiple evolutions of a meme, through charts and surprisingly sarcastic commentaries.

Sam has so much love in his heart for whomever runs it, it’s bordering on a crush at this point.

The Memetymologist is funny, witty, and Sam cannot help but be intrigued by one of the blog’s specific goals.

He can’t help but wonder why, but more importantly how , the blog always seems to find the oldest of memes, their source, and how they came to rise from the Internet’s underbelly.

He’s talking relics, here-- prehistoric memes that are at the very source of meme culture.

Truth be told, Sam is fascinated by the Memetymologist’s focus in this matter.

So far, he has kept his admiration (and growing crush) to himself, simply reblogging what he considers to be the best analysis for his followers.

But this time, he cannot contain himself. Sam has to send the blogger a message to express his admiration.

Finding a parallel--documented and argumented--between the Mother of all Memes, Kilroy was here , and Shia Labeouf’s inspirational speech meme was a stroke of genius that Sam has to salute.

“That analysis was amazing, but how on Earth do you find these relics is even more remarkable”, he types. “Thank you for bringing back Kilroy too--as a vet, it was a sign that we were not as alone as we felt.”

He hits send, hoping nothing.

This blog easily has thousands of followers; they must get hundreds of asks every day.

His message is merely a congratulatory one--it doesn’t call for a reply of any kind.

That being said, without even bringing up memes, talking about the sense of belonging most soldiers find in seeing the little graffiti, even today, would be a good subject for his next meeting at the VC.

Thank you, Memetymologist, Sam thinks as he opens a Word document to start preparing his speech.

---

A message awaits him the next morning.

“From two vets to another, our pleasure. Care to share that cocoa?”

---

There is a bounce in Sam’s steps throughout the whole day, even as he enters the Center and does his “rounds” with the recovering soldiers. Whether it’s physical or mental, war leaves its scars on every person it touches.

“We have newbies,” Natasha whispers to him as he gets ready for his reunion.

Natasha’s past in the army is a bit blurry, to say the least, but her dry sense of humor is often the buoy Sam needs to keep on going.

That, and she is a remarkable sparring/cuddling partner.

“Newbies?”

“Back row, near the exit.”

“Hm--the brunet and the blond?”

“Spot on. Though I would have called them Summer and Winter Treats.”

“Nat …”

“Tell me I’m wrong.”

Sam wishes he could tell her that she is wrong, but words fail him as he looks at the two newcomers.

Both are tall and buff--though the blond one is definitely taller-- with that look in their eyes that speaks of horrors Sam knows only too well.

A look that says that they will never be the same, but they won’t let their past take them down, darn it.

A vulnerable strength, so to speak, and if Sam is already turning into a poet over them from a distance, he’s capital S Screwed.

Blond and Tall looks towards the podium with a slightly questioning look before turning to his companion, reaching for him. Dark and Buff has his eyes downcast, hunched forward in his seat. Even from his vantage point, Sam can see that his left hand is a prosthetic, and he winces in sympathy.

Not all wounds are visible, and every person in the room has had to rebuild their lives around something they lost on the battlefield, find a way to feel complete--it’s part of their common experience, something they can help each other with.

Showtime.

Sam moves forward, rolling his sleeves as he goes--his own little ritual to get in “mentor” mode. “Good afternoon,” he says, sending his voice across the room as he usually does. “Welcome back for our regulars, I hope the show won’t disappoint, and welcome to the newbies. Promise there won’t be any hazing … from me.”

Some vets relax at his words, even Gabe who’s always so tense. Sam winks at Misty, who just happens to be sitting in front of BT and DB, and she shakes her head at him with a fond smile on her face.

BT raises one eyebrow at Sam before discreetly elbowing his companion who looks up in interest.

Two pairs of very different shades of blue are directed at him, and Sam barely manages to keep himself from humming some Johnny Cash.

Oh, no I never got over those blues eyes I see them everywhere I miss those arms that held me When all the love was there

Yes please .

“Ahem.”

Trust Natasha to keep Sam from getting lost in his own little fantasy.

Spoilsport.

“Today’s show will be about this little guy we’ve all probably seen somewhere,” he continues, launching his projector with the Kilroy graffiti. “I remember seeing it drawn in chalk on a wall when I was in Afghanistan,” he adds, reaching into his own experience to free the speech of those around him. “Though the situation was not ideal,” he says with a pointed look that sends a wave of nods in his audience, “seeing it made me realize that this … nightmare, was not our first time fighting, and that I too could survive this. I, too, could say that I was here and helped my fellow soldiers keep their hopes up.”

Someone--Sam is fairly sure that it’s Old Nick in the back--starts whistling the country’s anthem, and people laugh. Sure, it’s shaky and awkward, but it’s a laugh nonetheless.

“Yeah, yeah,” he replies benevolently, “I thought you guys were used to my rousing speeches by now.”

This time around, the laughter is a little more opened, a little less embarrassed, and even Natasha smiles.

“Now, this is my experience,” he continues, more serious, “and I would never dream of thinking that I know how you feel, but this sense of belonging, of having a purpose, is what helped me get through the worst of it. Who wants to share what, in their experience, helped them?”

The silence is so thick you could cut it with a knife and serve it with a plate of ribs.

Hmmm, I might get a early dinner at the diner. Focus, Wilson!

“Drawing.”

The voice is soft, and a lot of heads turn towards it.

Uh. Tall and Blonde. Look at you go.

No, seriously, Sam would love to watch him go, as sad as it would be to see him leave.

“Hello,” Sam says, focusing all of his attention on the man.

“H-hi,” he stammers back, his fair complexion betraying the sudden pink on his cheek. “I’m Steve--Steve Rogers.”

“Welcome, Steve,” all the group sing-songs in unison, snickering and even laughing outright.

Sam is so proud of those jackasses.

“Thank you,” Steve says, a crooked grin making an appearance on his face. “As I was saying, drawing helped me connect with my--our-- squad,” he says, pointing his thumb at Dark and Buff.

Though Winter Treat suits him better, damn Natasha for putting ideas in his overactive head.

The man glances at Steve before returning his attention to-- oh .

He’s keeping his eyes on Sam--not in a confrontational manner.

If anything, it’s an appreciative look--damn right distracting too, Sam tells himself, focusing on Steve’s words.

“It was a moment of peace in the chaos,” Steve continues, “when I could find a moment and a spot to draw my squad.”

“It was a pocket of home for us too,” Winter Treat pipes up, his voice softer than his appearance lead Sam to think it would be. “When Steve drew us.”

Sam nods. “Because he was drawing you relaxed, or …?”

“Because it was a semblance of normalcy in places where normal didn’t exist,” the man says, looking up to stare at Sam. “A sign that no matter how lonely it felt, even in the middle of the group, something else was waiting and we were not as alone as we felt.”

To have his hastily composed message unknowingly sent back to him makes Sam uneasy for a moment.

“That’s a good thing to remember,” he says to cover his agitation. “No matter how nightmarish our experiences were, we were not, we are not alone in them. Who else wants to share?”

More people seem encouraged to speak up, and Sam lets the meeting run its course like he usually does, only interjecting every now and then to keep the flow going.

Through it all, he catches Steve and his broody friend looking at him intently. They even quietly speak in each other’s ear, all while glancing at him.

More than once, the meeting lulls into silence because Sam was too distracted to notice.

Very flattering, sure, but so very unprofessional of him!

---

The meeting comes to a close, and after sending everybody home with good wishes and homemade toffees, Sam almost starts jogging to get to the diner.

He’s not usually so ravenous when he comes out of a Vet day, but it was a good one, full of positive energy.

That, and he has a craving of a very different kind that has no chance of becoming a reality, so he’ll eat his feelings if nobody objects to his plans.

“Careful, on your left!”

Sam nearly jumps out of his skin but twists his body to let a crazy deliveryboy zoom by him on his left.

“You alright, Sarge?”

Sam huffs a laugh as he looks at the two men walking towards him. “Right as rain, Cap,” he replies as Steve and his friend who is still nameless get close.

“I hope the meeting didn’t scare you away,” Sam says, digging his hands in his pockets lest he does something he’ll regret.

As in, reaching out to see for himself if those pecs are real because damn son .

“Not at all,” Steve replies, a boyish grin on his lips now. “It was quite interesting.”

“Why Kilroy?”

“Buck, manners.”

‘Buck’ frowns at Steve before glancing at Sam. He twists his mouth in regrets. “I’m sorry, Sarge,” he says softly, “I need to … acclimate myself back to normal situations.”

“Nothing to apologize for, …?”

“James. Bucky,” he corrects himself. “Sergeant Bucky Barnes.”

“Nothing to apologize for, Sarge,” Sam says, waving his hand in the air as if to erase the whole past awkwardness. “Civilian life is quite a challenge.”

“Yeah.”

“So, why did you mention Kilroy?” Bucky asks again, and Sam would love to chat with those two fine ( fiii-iiine ) specimens, but his stomach grumbles and he can’t stay.

“Care to join me for dinner?”

Steve and Bucky exchange a look. The type of look that shows years of knowing each other (biblically? One can hope, those two together must look insanely hot. Like, Sahara hot).

“Sure. Lead the way.”

--

Sam’s dinner doesn’t look much, but he knows for a fact that their ribs are the best in the Tristate area.

“Really?”

Steve sounds doubtful, but he’ll eat his words when the plate arrives, and Sam has no qualms about telling him so.

If he knew that it would make Bucky laugh, he would have joked sooner, ‘cause it’s a sight to behold.

“Sorry if I have my doubts,” Steve says, sitting very prim and proper--which only makes Bucky, and in an echo, Sam, cackle even harder-- “but where I come from, the ribs are already top notch.”

“Unless you’re from the deep South like the boss here, wherever you come from doesn’t hold a candle,” Sam replies, leaning back into the leather seat and smirking at the man.

Yes, he is aware that the move pulls at the fabric of his t-shirt over his chest and arms, why do you ask.

Gotta strut the strut and flaunt his stuff.

Bucky’s eyes travel along his arm, so that’s definitely one win.

“Just from Brooklyn,” Steve replies and Bucky cocks his head and smirks like this answers everything.

“Yeah, okay, Amanda’s ribs will get you on your knees and thanking the Lord.”

“I wouldn’t mind.”

The words are softly spoken, but Sam almost chokes on air.

Did …

He …

He did, didn’t he?

When he looks back at them, there is a very alluring twinkle in both men’s eyes.

“Here you are, boys,” the waitress says, startling all of them out of their staring contest. “If you need anything, let me know, alright Sammy?”

“Thank you, ‘Manda,” Sam says, sending her a dazzling smile. She pats his cheek and returns to the kitchen with a spring in her steps.

“Regular here?”

Sam unfolds his napkin. “I practically grew up on Amanda’s cooking,” he replies, taking the time to savor the smell of the smoked meat, the barbecue spices and sauce, and the garlic fries, all blending together into “home”. “Her son and I were partners back in Afghanistan. When Riley was shot, I went home and she put me back together.”

“Through Love?”

“Through food.”

“Ah.”

“Sorry for your partner.”

“Dig in, it’s better warm.” And I need to not think downward-spiraling thoughts .

The look on both Steve’s and Bucky’s faces after their first bite is one Sam needs to cherish: surprise, delight, and hunger, all wrapped into one.

“I bow to this diner’s superiority,” Steve says with his mouth full, which Sam finds way too endearing for it to be natural. “This is … like … like …”

“Like a hug in your mouth,” Sam says, picking up a fry and savoring the taste of garlic and victory.

“Exacty.”

“Sooo,” Bucky says, lazily picking up a fry and lodging it between his lips like some sort of cowboy, “about Kilroy?”

Sam smiles, thinking about his favorite blog. “It came up on a blog that I follow online,” he explains, “and I thought about what it meant to me, and from that point on, built my speech. Why?”

Steve and Bucky exchange a loaded look. “A blog?” they ask in unison.

“Yeah, I’m on Tumblr,” Sam says, his cheeks heating up. “It’s my escape from … everything.”

“Not judging, we have a blog too.”

“What about?”

“I think you know.”

Sam raises one eyebrow. “How would I know?”

“The same way I know you make a mean hot cocoa.”

“And that your kitchen is a work of art.”

It takes Sam a moment to absorb the words, and then his eyes bulge out of his head.

New York and the world may be small, but that small? No, he did not see it coming.

“Memetymologist?”

“RedWingToTheRescue?”

Sam can feel a smile stretching his lips from ear to ear, and what’s even better, that smile is mirrored on the faces of both of the men across from him.

“Why memes?”

Steve leans forward, resting his arms on the table. “Same reason you cook, I think,” he says softly, his crooked smile making a comeback.

Is that a dimple? Oh my God.

“We follow you, too.”

Sam would have noticed the blog following him back, and his face must show it.

“Individually.”

“Ah.”

“It’s very comforting.”

“You don’t say.”

“That kitchen is really amazing.”

“Want to see it irl?”

The words are out of his mouth before he can stop himself, but the twinkle is back so he won’t berate himself too harshly.

“I wouldn’t dare refuse such an offer,” Steve says, pulling his wallet and standing up in one fluid motion.

Sam’s throat is so dry, all of a sudden.

“The things I’ve dreamed of doing in that kitchen will rock your world,” Bucky adds, a small smile making his eyes crinkle.

Sam gulps as he stands too, and would you look at that, ends up between the two men.

“By all means,” he manages to say, extracting himself from the Buff Sandwich (the Buffwich, if you will) to lead the way.

He believed that today would be a good day, but never did he imagine it would turn out to be quite that good.

---

His kitchen has never seen that kind of scene.

Never.

Sam is never going to be able to cook without having a Pavlovian boner.

Well, that’s tomorrow’s problem, isn’t it, because all of his attention is required right now to avoid dampening the mood with an injury.

“The moment you rolled your sleeves, I wanted to take that shirt off,” Bucky growls against the soft skin of Sam’s neck as he unbuttons the offensive garment, “and worship those arms.”

“Have you looked at yourself?” Sam tears himself from kissing Steve to reply, one hand groping Steve’s chest while the other gets tangled in Bucky’s silky hair.

“Hm-hm, still want to do all the things to your body.”

“Count me in on that plan, Buck,” Steve chuckles as he meets Bucky over Sam’s shoulder to kiss him.

Sam has an hand on both their head and he angles it a little bit to the left, pressed as he is between their bodies.

Oh, he’s definitely in for a treat, wherever this goes.

Ah, treats.

“Summer and Winter,” he murmurs as he alternates between Steve and Bucky’s neck to press kisses and kitten licks.

“Uh?”

“Nothing.”

“Oh, that’s--that’s good,” Bucky says. “Sam, can you--ugh, can you move?”

“No.” If anything, Sam presses even more against him, encouraged by Steve who turns him more fully towards the other man.

“You okay, Buck?” Steve says, one hand on Sam’s hip and the other cupping Bucky’s cheek.

Bucky’s eyes are black, with just a ring of blue left in them. “A bit--a bit overwhelmed here.”

“Alright,” Sam says with a sigh, moving back against Steve. “Let’s all relax and use this kitchen for its intended purpose, hm?”

Bucky and Steve give him a perfect salute. “Sir, yes sir.”

Sam smirks, shoving both his guests towards the kitchen chairs. “Wanna try my hot cocoa?”

“I thought we were.”

“You did not just say that.”

Steve snickers into his palm. “I think he did, Sarge.”

“Tsk tsk. No whipped cream for you.”

“Aww,” Bucky says, sitting at the table with his legs wide opened. “I was really interested in getting the cream.”

“He does like cream.”

“Good to know. Only if you behave then.”

“Yes, sir,” Bucky repeats closing his legs but sprawling even further into the chair.

Debauched, that’s what he looks like, and Steve, even sitting as straight as he is, is not a lot better.

Definitely my treats .

[theamberfang]

IDA: A Study in Gold 2-19

Last night I slept for a span of time that was pretty close to normal for your average person, which means it was a few hours ahead of when I’d been sleeping. As a result, I’ve still been a bit groggy since waking, but I’ll do my best to persevere instead of postponing things as I had in similar situations in the past.

Surprisingly, in previous posts I hadn’t mentioned that this chapter is coming to a close. This post will cover the final paragraph of the chapter-proper, including the now-usual paragraph summary. Though this paragraph looks to have some dialogue in it, I had a summary of the last leg of conversation between Ramford and Judith in the last post.

This isn’t quite the last post dedicated to this chapter though. I intend to do at least one more with [potentially] brief commentary about the author’s notes and then to cap everything off by stepping even further back and looking at the chapter as a whole.

Beyond that, like with chapter one, I may take a break from IDA to reorganize my analysis into a Google Doc, though without many intentions of editing any of it. I’m thinking of instead spending the rest of the week exploring other topics, under the Loose Talk tag, that I’ve been wanting to write about.

Source

As she spoke, we turned down a narrow lane and passed through a small side-door, which opened into a wing of the great hospital.

It seems the conversation since leaving Hartebeest has spanned the whole trip to the hospital. Since they are turning down a lane on their own, we can infer that they did walk their way to the hospital rather than taking a ride. They enter through a side entrance, which makes sense since Ramford works here.

It’s interesting to me that this place is described as the great hospital. This makes it sound like a particularly prestigious hospital, but there wasn’t really any indication of that from prior conversation. The fact that Ramford worked here was only mentioned in passing, as if it was barely notable, let alone impressive. It’s possible, then, that while this is a great hospital, it is really is the only hospital in Zootopia, at least of any significant repute, so it’s only expected that anyone in the medical field would work here. It’s also possible that “great” simply indicates the hospital’s size, without any respect to its reputation.

It was vaguely familiar to me, for Zootopia General was the very same hospital in which I had previously attended a set of lectures as part of my training.

I suppose this is another reason Judith may not have found a reason to make a point of Ramford and Nicolas working here: she’s worked and trained here herself. The time she’s spent here has likely given her plenty of reason to properly respect the hospital, but that familiarity also makes it less remarkable. It reminds me of how her excitement towards the rest of Zootopia was due to how unfamiliar it was, and likely still is.

Though, what she had done here is a lot less than I had imagined. I had thought coming to a hospital would involve getting some hands-on experience rather than just lectures. Granted, I have no idea how studies go in the medical field. My best guess is that these lectures incorporated live demonstration of surgery.

I do remember that she had bemoaned the fact that she couldn’t explore the city during this time, and just having a few lectures would correlate with that limitation. She did make it seem like it was more a matter of discipline than a lack of time back then though - I suppose it still could have been with how enamored she was with the city.

Besides that, hospitals are in my experience very alike in layout; the white-washed walls and dun-colored floors could have belonged to practically any other hospital.

I don’t really buy how these elements are connected: a building’s layout has little to do with how it is ultimately decorated. I imagine there are privately built homes and offices that are designed from beginning to end, but I don’t really see that happening with hospitals.

I guess “layout” may not refer to room layout and floor-plan, but decoration and aesthetic layout instead. Either way, the two halves of the sentence do both convey the sense that all hospitals are cut from the same cloth, so when you’ve been around the world to a bunch of hospitals the way Judith has, they can all blend together. Still the logical through-line for these two halves doesn’t seem as apparent as it could be.

Another aspect here is that the sentence is basically saying: “You’ve been to a hospital right? You can just fill in the environment with that.” It’s an interesting shorthand to use in a contemporary setting, or rather, a close-enough-to-contemporary setting. I get the idea that the specific details of the environment still aren’t important, but we’re getting close to actually meeting Nicolas, so some work needs to be done to set the stage.

Ramford lead me to the end of the corridor and stopped before a stout door.

It seems Judith and Ramford have made their way through the hospital in relative silence. I guess it could be difficult to have a conversation in a bustling hospital, but we haven’t actually been told that anything of the sort. I’m not a big fan of the lack of detail about the hospital, but I’ll save that for the paragraph summary.

While I feel there could have been a bit more preceding this sentence, what we actually have here is quite nice. The order of the details here easily conjures up the image of what is happening. We start with Ramford and she’s leading, so we get that they are walking. It’s to the end of the corridor so that builds their immediate surroundings, then they stop and our focus is left on the image of a stout door.

I’ve mentioned before how the details at the end of a sentence seem to have more impact, and this clearly illustrates it to me. The period forces my imagination to pause for a moment, so I linger on that last detail. In this case, it gives the door an imposing presence, almost like the door to a boss at the end of a dungeon. Considering how the anticipation for this meeting with Nicolas has built up, this seems very appropriate.

"Here we are," she said as she swung the door open, "You must form your own impressions about him."

Coming off my idea of this feeling like the end of a dungeon, I can’t help but imagine the door being swung open dramatically. Looking at it, I suppose “swung” on it’s own suggests that the door was opened with quite a bit of force, so it’s not too far off even without my specific impression. The fact that this ends the chapter also adds to the sense of finality and impact.

This does give Ramford’s words here an interesting tone to it though. It’s practically commanding. Going back to my impending-boss-battle impression, it feels akin to “You must fight this battle on your own” being said by the protagonist’s master before some final challenge. It clashes with the image of Ramford excitedly asking about Judith’s adventures earlier in the chapter.

It was confirmed that the prior conversation had our two characters making their way to the hospital in the background, and this paragraph sped us straight through the hospital to get to Nicolas. That prior conversation had a paragraph in the middle of it that was longer than this one though, so that walk feels a lot longer. Granted, it probably did take longer, but since no explicit attention was paid to that little journey, it just makes the walk through the hospital feel all the shorter. Despite being the hospital in Zootopia, it feels remarkably small.

That’s why I would have liked a few more details about the hospital, or at least the people in it. Unlike Hartebeest, this isn’t just some random place: Judith has history here and as a medical professor she may have reason to come here in the future. Though probably less important, Nicolas and Ramford also work here, so it’s not just Judith. A lot of dots connect to this location, so I expected a bit more for it.

The lack of detail also doesn’t reflect too well on Judith’s character, especially since she herself is the narrator. If she were as passionate about medicine as Boargelat said she was, I’d expect her to have a bit more insight than “hospitals all look drab and boring.” Even if that’s something she has to admit, maybe there could have been something about the people around her. As it is, the walk through the hospital feels both rushed and strangely silent. Now that I’ve said that, the silence may have contributed to the dungeon-like impression I had by the end.

It’s possible that the hospital gets more details in the next chapter, but this is still a really weak first impression. It’s also possible that, despite the characters we’ve been introduced to all converging here, the hospital simply isn’t that important in the grand scheme of things. If that’s the case, I think I’d prefer not to have that token detail about how boring the place is; I’d probably fill in the space with my own boring hospital environments without being prompted, and at least it wouldn’t reflect poorly on Judith then.

[awesomecolorfulcollectorwombat]

Weighing The Week Ahead: Can Earnings Season Spark A Rebound In Stocks?

New Post has been published on http://tradewithoutfear.com/weighing-the-week-ahead-can-earnings-season-spark-a-rebound-in-stocks/

Weighing The Week Ahead: Can Earnings Season Spark A Rebound In Stocks?

We have a normal economic calendar with a focus on housing data. Earnings season will be in full swing. The background for this news will, of course, be the stock market volatility and decline of the past week. That story will command the early-week attention, especially if aggressive selling resumes. Recent earnings seasons have buoyed stocks, leaving the punditry with this question: Can earnings season spark a rebound in stocks?

Last Week Recap

In my last edition of WTWA I took note of rising interest rates asking whether they signaled the beginning of the end for the stock rally. That was a good call. The question dominated financial news on Monday and Tuesday, even though stocks barely moved. It was almost as if the news coverage was pre-planned, and events did not matter. That changed on Wednesday, when the major market decline gave legs to the story. The last edition of WTWA provided a good preview of this, but certainly no prediction of the sharp selling.

The Story in One Chart

I always start my personal review of the week by looking at a great chart. I especially like the version updated each week by Jill Mislinski. She includes a lot of valuable information in a single visual. The full post has even more charts and analysis, including commentary on volume. Check it out.

The market declined 4.1% on the week. Wednesday saw the largest single-day loss since February. The weekly trading range was about 6.4%. Volatility spike higher, exceeding the long-term averages. The VIX implied volatility measure remained higher than the actual results. I summarize actual and implied volatility each week in our Indicator Snapshot section below.

Noteworthy

Have you already purchased your last car? Justin Rowlatt (BBC News) raises the provocative question and provides plenty of evidence. Internal combustion engines have 2000 parts, compared to about 20 for electric cars, which may have life spans of 500,000 miles.

The News

Each week I break down events into good and bad. For our purposes, “good” has two components. The news must be market friendly and better than expectations. I avoid using my personal preferences in evaluating news – and you should, too!

When relevant, I include expectations (E) and the prior reading (P).

The Good

Inflation data remained benign. PPI registered a gain of 0.2% up from P of -0.1% but in line with expectations. CPI gained only 0.1% P 0.2% headline and 0.1% core. E 0.2%.

High Frequency Indicators have turned positive, including the long-leading cluster. New Deal Democrat’s helpful weekly update breaks the data into two groups, providing both detail and a summary on each. The long-leading group has shifted back and for recently, and he continues to monitor it closely. For now, it is positive.

Economic growthfor Q3 and forward remains strong. Calculated Risk summarizes the key sources, “It looks like GDP will be in the 3s in Q3”.

Market sentiment has turned negative – very negative. David Templeton (HORAN) updates the Fear and Greed picture, a positive contrarian factor.

The Bad

As has been the recent case, most of the “bad” news consists of indicators slightly off the best levels.

NFIB Small Business optimism was slightly off the high from last month – 107.9 vs. 108.8. Bespoke also looks at the reasons behind the headline number.

Initial jobless claims rose to 214K E 208K P 207K

Michigan sentiment declined to 99.0 E 100 P 100.1. Bespoke notes that sentiment remains near the recent highs and highlights the move in inflation expectations. Expectations for income growth were also lower. The survey period captured only part of last week’s decline, and probably none of it for most respondents.

The Ugly

Hurricane Florence led to 51 deaths and estimated damages of $30 billion to $50 billion. The events have also exposed other problems. The Bipartisan Policy Center provides a good analysis, with this comment on some needed reforms:

Hurricane Florence has, like many other recent disasters, exposed a variety of flaws in the pre-disaster and post-disaster policies of the United States. These gaps undermine the nation’s resilience, endanger residents, and further jeopardize the soundness of already aging infrastructure. For immediate recovery needs, Congress has repeatedly turned to supplemental funding as short-term fixes, but to prevent this level of destruction from reoccurring in the wake of the next disaster, there needs to be a dramatic overhaul of the national infrastructure investments and disaster framework. Spending more upfront, with a focus on increased resiliency and mitigation, saves money when a disaster hits. For every $1 spent on mitigation, an estimated $6 is saved that otherwise would have been spent in recovery costs.

The Week Ahead

We would all like to know the direction of the market in advance. Good luck with that! Second best is planning what to look for and how to react.

The Calendar

The calendar is a big one, with a strong emphasis on housing. Also featured will be retail sales, the Fed minutes, and leading indicators. The Philly Fed has its fans, and it has had some market-moving moments. A favorite of mine is the JOLTS report, which has special significance as our best read on the tightening labor market.

It is also a big week for Q3 earnings reports, where we had our first taste last week. Many large companies will report. Expectations are for continuing increases in the 20% range on a year-over-year basis. (Barron’s).

Briefing.com has a good U.S. economic calendar for the week (and many other good features which I monitor each day). Here are the main U.S. releases.

Next Week’s Theme

Once again, I expect last week’s news to linger into the week ahead. My hope is that the story will turn to earnings season and substantive stock news. For the moment everyone is preoccupied with last week’s big stock declines. Mrs. OldProf and I were watching an interview with a European notable who described the stock decline as either a healthy correction or the start of a new trend. She astutely observed that he certainly had all the bases covered! By week’s end I expect pundits to be asking: Can earnings season generate a rebound in stocks?

But for the moment, we need to review the week behind. Sometimes an understanding of that is necessary to plan for the week ahead.

As is my custom, I will cite a range of viewpoints and include some links. I will organize these into two sections: Alleged causes and Recommended strategies.

Causes

Valuation – Always cited when stocks move a bit lower.

Profit Taking – A tried and true reason when a rising market changes course. (Barron’s, which also mentions some of the other potential causes listed here).

The Fed – Now apparently less data dependent, planning to keep raising rates above neutral regardless of the strength of the economy. Leading Fed guru Tim Duy notes the increased importance of the “dot plots,” the report of individual Fed participants expectations for future rates.

Tariffs – Dr. Ed Yardeni analyzes the impact of various tariff announcements and muses on the possibility that a trade war with China is now the “base case” as JP Morgan suggests. Dr. Ed believes:

…the US economy will be strong enough to boost S&P 500 earnings by 6.8% to $173 per share, which has been our number for next year for a while. I don’t think that the escalating trade war with China will be the event that ends the bull market in the US (Fig. 3). However, it may already be marking the beginning of a severe and prolonged bear market in China (Fig. 4).

Interest rates – The standard shorthand explanation from major news sources.

Technical signals – Eddy Elfenbein notes that Thursday’s trading took the S&P 500 below its 200-day moving average, a widely-followed technical indicator. Eddy also observes that panic is not indicated. The two-day loss is not that unusual, and not even the worst for 2018. The chart below illustrates both points.

Algorithms — blamed for anything and everything.

Emotion — Just another panic attack writes Scott Grannis. He concludes, “It wouldn’t be surprising to see prices decline further, but it would be surprising if this proved to be the beginning of a major rout or recession”. In his summary of key indicators, he includes an interesting chart of VIX peaks. He creates a ratio with the ten-year note yield. It is a coincident measure.

What to do now?

Buy bonds, say bond fund managers and bond research houses. Flirting with Models offers some alternatives for diversification.

Buy gold (or silver) say the fear-inspiring commercials.

Sell everything – the verdict of many investment newsletters

Don’t panic? Cullen Roche explains why this admonition is not helpful.

Buy the dip – David Templeton (HORAN) takes a good look at the data, concluding:

Some might say the decline has caused damage to the market, but a better phrase might be created opportunity. As the below chart shows only 11% of S&P 500 stocks are trading above their 50 day moving average. The last time this occurred was in February earlier this year. That turns out to be a low point in the market so far in 2018. In regards to the 200 day moving average, 41% of stocks are trading above that level, again similar to the early 2018 market low.

Buy with both hands – Ralph Vince sees the current opportunity as “juicy.”

Get perspective by considering data – then figure out how it applies to you. Brett Steenbarger explains both.

In today’s Final Thought, I’ll add a few of my own observations.

Quant Corner

We follow some regular featured sources and the best other quant news from the week.

Risk Analysis

I have a rule for my investment clients. Think first about your risk. Only then should you consider possible rewards. I monitor many quantitative reports and highlight the best methods in this weekly update.

The Indicator Snapshot

Short-term trading conditions remain favorable, despite some deterioration. The overall health indicator for our models remains positive, although some of the individual models stopped out specific positions. Super-high volatility is not attractive for most trading systems. If these high levels continue, I expect further deterioration next week. The VIX spiked much higher than actual volatility, indicating sentiment worse than the reality.

Fundamentals indicators are all solid, with stocks much more attractive than recently. The earnings yield advantage over the S&P 500 has improved significantly.

The Featured Sources:

Bob Dieli: Business cycle analysis via the “C Score.

Brian Gilmartin: All things earnings, for the overall market as well as many individual companies.

RecessionAlert: Strong quantitative indicators for both economic and market analysis.

Doug Short and Jill Mislinski: Regular updating of an array of indicators. Great charts and analysis.

Georg Vrba: Business cycle indicator and market timing tools. None of Georg’s indicators signal recession. Here is the latest chart on the Business Cycle Index.

Insight for Traders

Check out our weekly Stock Exchange post. We combine links to important posts about trading, themes of current interest, and ideas from our trading models. This week we asked whether traders thought they could actually understand the stock market. Or perhaps they were just pretending. In many ways, it is a companion to today’s post, but with a trader orientation. We shared advice by top trading experts and discussed some recent picks from our trading models. Our ringleader and editor, Blue Harbinger, provided fundamental counterpoint for the models, all of which are technically-based.

Insight for Investors

Investors should have a long-term horizon. They can often exploit trading volatility.

Best of the Week

If I had to pick a single most important source for investors to read this week, it would be Ashby Daniels’ (Retirement Field Guide) discussion of emotions and retirement planning. He illustrates his ideas with the story of an actual investor who made a knee-jerk market call that turned out well – at least for a few percentage points. Now what?

He writes:

Many people are quick to say that they aren’t market timers (nobody likes to be labeled as such), but then in the next sentence proceed to ask what I think of the market and whether now is a good time to invest more or to take some chips off the table.

In fact, the question, “What do you think of the market?” is by far the most popular question that I get asked. I just want to be on the record in saying that, “Anything other than establishing a portfolio built specifically for you and sticking with that portfolio is an attempt at market timing.” With the exception of life changes, how could it be anything else?

Read the full article for some good ideas about how to plan and stick to the plan. [Jeff – I suppose I like his approach since it is so close to my own, but there is nothing wrong with that].

Stock Ideas

Chuck Carnevale provides his usual comprehensive analysis combined with a lesson in using data. He sees Whirlpool [WHR] as a cheap stock with little downside. Be sure to watch the video to see why he calls this a “fire sale valuation.”

Blue Harbinger also surveys beaten-down names and finds one from his watch list, Ship Finance International (SFL).

Alphabet? (GOOG) Stone Fox Capital likes the opportunity, IF the company dodges or resolves regulatory issues.

They also like Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), calling market fears about competition with Intel (INTC) unwarranted.

Eddy Elfenbein does not make a specific recommendation, but he takes note of the current weakness in semiconductors, after years of strength.

Personal Finance

Seeking Alpha Senior Editor Gil Weinreich’s Asset Allocation Daily is consistently both interesting and informative. His upbeat analysis,4 Ways to Prevail Over Automation, is factual, pragmatic, and inspirational. Later in the week, his thoughts were more sobering. He challenged investors to consider how they would consider a prolonged decline. That is a topic that everyone should think about in advance.

Abnormal Returns is an important daily source for all of us following investment news. His Wednesday Personal Finance Post is especially helpful for individual investors. This week had several good posts on retirement. I especially liked Mike Piper’s warning that you might not be able to pick your retirement age. He combines data with some good examples. And, today’s Best of the Week (above).

Watch out for…

Bonds. The Mad Hedge Fund Trader says The Fat Lady is Singing for the Bond Market.

Final Thought

What caused the sharp market decline? Interest rates are a poor explanation, since the entire yield curve was the same on Wednesday morning as it was on Friday. Astute traders scoffed at the explanations offered (Avi Gilburt).

I covered the possible pattern in last week’s edition, which was an accurate preview. Briefly put, a smidgen of news sparks some trading from both human traders and algorithms. This is directionally correct, but without analysis of the overall significance. The selling often spreads to an ETF that has concentrations in the affected stocks. Sometimes prices that are viewed by some as important “technical” levels are violated. This sparks selling by a different group of traders. Despite the lack of overall logic or a cohesive explanation, the financial news must satisfy demand for an explanation. I wrote last week:

Every time the market makes a small move we are bombarded by observers predicting the worst. It is important to remember that declines of 15-20% happen regularly and without any particular reason. No one can predict these accurately, so the average investor should learn to take advantage of the movement rather than falling for the persistent pseudo-warnings. Alan Steel calls it the Fear Economy, and reviews the history of predictions by one prominent uber-bear.

Alan Steel has another great post. Starting with a bearish call from one economist from a big institution, he traces the consequences:

Let’s face it they’d seen articles written by “proper experts” reminding readers that October was a dangerous month to invest in shares.

Mark Twain used to say that yonks ago. Although he also reckoned that February, December, August, May, January, July, September, March, November April and June were, too. Say no more.

No matter what we said this couple of perpetual worriers cashed out and stuck their significant life savings in bank deposit, assuring us they’d reinvest when it felt better. So when would that be? “When the market’s higher of course”. No, they didn’t spot the irony. So three years later how have they done? Not good I’m afraid . Earned literally sod all in interest, and lost money in real terms thanks to inflation.

And also this…

In August 2010 an analysis was made of ten renowned economic experts and their predictions related to an imminent “double-dip recession” in the wake of the 2007/8 Great Financial Crisis. They included well –known revered figures including Robert Shiller (Prof at Yale University), Bill Gross (Former managing partner at PIMCO), Nouriel Roubini (Prof at New York University) as well as those economists representing Goldman Sachs, The Institute of Directors and the National Institute for Economic and Social Research.

They all saw the probabilities of a double-dip recession as higher than normal. One or two saw the probability as high as 50% to over 60%. And they were wrong. Unless you count the fall in demand for Hummus and Taramasalata in Greece.

[A few months earlier, in May of 2010, I challenged these ideas with my Dow 20K call – the market doubling rather than being cut in half. There were plenty of skeptics, especially on Seeking Alpha. Or this halfway update. And finally, the 2016 CNBC coverage. The important takeaway is that the key indicators I am using have not changed, nor has the avalanche of negativity. The time to worry will come – probably when recession odds move higher.]

Barry Ritholtz offers a challenge on the same concept. He notes that the factors alleged to underly the decline were well known in advance. So many offered great explanations with the benefit of hindsight. But not on Tuesday.

What now? Your best course of action depends upon your personal circumstances and time frame.

If you are a trader, follow your system. Use your stops to exit positions. Get ready for another day.

If you are a passive investor with an “all-weather” portfolio, you should not do anything. This sort of move comes with the territory. If you find it disturbing, then your stock position may be too large. Or you need to spend less time watching the news!

If you are an active investor who determines values of the companies you hold and price targets for the stocks, you should ignore the opinion of the emotional Mr. Market. Take advantage of price disparities to buy or sell as indicated. Volatility provides opportunity.

[Note: If you find these recommendations difficult, you may be using the wrong method. We combine these perspectives to right-size risk. My two papers on investor pitfalls and understanding risk are available at no charge.]

I’m more worried about:

China trade. Any mention of progress or lack thereof generates an immediate market reaction. This issue is important and could provide the catalyst for major gains.

The LIBOR transition. This reference rate for many contracts has proven to be both unfair and unstable. Improvements are coming, but Richard Berner (Bipartisan Policy Center) warns that we should not be complacent during the transition.

I’m less worried about:

Earnings growth. Can it be a catalyst again this month? The reaction to conference calls will give us a sense of the market mood.

Disclosure: I am/we are long WHR, INTC.

I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Additional disclosure: Short calls versus both WHR and INTC.

[therightnewsnetwork]

Did Assad Order the Syrian Gas Attack?

On the morning of April 4, a Syrian Air Force Russian-made Sukhoi-22 fighter bomber dropped or fired something at a target in rebel-held Idlib Governorate. A cloud of some chemical substance subsequently materialized and drifted to the adjacent inhabited village of Khan Shaykhun, where it killed between 50 and 100 people. We also know that the Russians used a “hotline” prior to the attack to alert the United States military that the strike would be taking place against what was apparently described as an arms depot.

We also know about what might be considered collateral damage. The deaths and alleged use of chemical weapons were described by President Donald Trump as a “vital national-security interest” and served as the pretext for a strike by 59 U.S. cruise missiles two days later, which was directed against the Syrian air base at al-Shayrat. The U.S. attack did little damage and the base was soon again operational. The White House also reversed itself regarding possible Syrian peace talks, declaring that Bashar al-Assad must be removed as a condition for any political settlement of the ongoing crisis. It also described Russia as complicit in protecting the Syrian president. Secretary of State Tillerson declared that bilateral relations with Moscow cannot improve as long as Russia is supporting al-Assad. The relationship with Russia is, according to President Trump, at an “all-time low.”

The U.S. government, in support of its narrative justifying the cruise-missile attack, has issued a four-page assessment entitled “The Assad Regime’s Use of Chemical Weapons on April 4, 2017.” The report was issued by the National Security Council, which is part of the White House, and was authored by Lt. Gen. H.R. McMaster, the national-security advisor, rather than Director of National Intelligence Dan Coats. The provenance suggests that it might not be what it is touted as, a “Summary of the U.S. Intelligence Community’s Assessment …” It makes a number of claims, some of which might be considered fact-based, while others seem questionable.

Bear in mind that nearly all the information and physical evidence available from the attack site in Syria has come from anti-Assad sources linked to al-Qaeda affiliate al-Nusra, which controls the area. This includes the so-called White Helmets, who are opposition surrogates. The established narrative derives from this material as well as from bipartisan assertions of Assad’s “certain” guilt, even from normally liberal Democrats, which are being presented as fact. 

The four-page White House report is supplemented by commentary provided by McMaster and Secretary of Defense James Mattis (also a former general) on the day of the U.S. attack, as well as a more recent interview with CIA Director Mike Pompeo, which describes the decision-making process and the military options. Each official, as well as President Trump, took it as a given that Syria had carried out the attack. Regarding the motive for such an attack, the report claims that Damascus was seeking to halt a rebel advance. Others in the media have claimed that it was done to “test” the United States or intimidate the Syrian population, but some other observers find those explanations elusive. After all, Bashar al-Assad would have had no good reason to stage a chemical attack when he was winning the war, while the rebels theoretically had plenty of motivation to stage a “false flag” attack to alienate Damascus from Western Europe and the Americans.

There is considerable repetition in the White House report describing Syrian involvement, rebel inability to mount a chemical attack, physical remains, and symptoms of the dead and injured. It says that the U.S. government is “confident” that the Syrian government carried out a chemical attack using “a neurotoxic agent like sarin … against its own people” on the morning of April 4, and that it would have been impossible for the rebels to fabricate the incident because it would be too complicated for them to do so. The alleged U.S. intelligence relating to understanding the attack included Sigint, geospatial monitoring, and physiological examination. Plus “Credible open source reporting … tells a clear and consistent story.” This included commercial-satellite imagery, which shows the impact sites of the weapons used, and opinions registered by civilian agencies like Medecins Sans Frontieres and Amnesty International.

The U.S. government report also maintains that Syria has violated its international obligations by retaining chemical-weapons capabilities even though it agreed to destroy all stocks in 2013. The narrative also insists that the still highly controversial attack made on Ghouta in 2013 was, in fact, carried out by Damascus. Syrian chemical-weapons experts were probably “involved in planning the [current] attack.” Symptoms of the victims were consistent with exposure to sarin.

Since the attack, per the report, the Russians and Syrians have been spinning out “false narratives” employing “multiple, conflicting accounts [of what took place] in order to create confusion and sow doubt within the international community.”

As noted above, beyond the bare bones of the Syrian attack, the U.S. retaliation, and the casualties, there is little in the incidents and the surrounding analysis that can be regarded as hard fact. Little in the National Security Council report is unassailable, and one should note that almost none of it is based on U.S. intelligence resources. The possibility that a Syrian chemical-weapons expert was “probably” involved expresses uncertainty, suggesting that an intercepted telephone call is being generously interpreted. And the geospatial monitoring is either a satellite (or even a drone) overhead, or possibly an AWACS plane operating along the nearby Turkish border, which would register the flight path of the Su-22 and the subsequent explosion(s), hardly conclusive evidence of anything beyond what we already know to be true.

The thinness of the U.S. intelligence came through in an April 13 talk by CIA Director Mike Pompeo, who described the pressure from the White House to come up with an “assessment.” As a bottom line, he commented that “Everyone saw the open-source photos, so we had reality on our side.” One might observe that that reality was derived from Google satellite photography possibly adjusted by the rebels and freely interpreted by the media, not from the $80 billion per year intelligence community.

Observers should also reexamine the assumption that rebels would be unable to either mount a chemical attack or create a “false flag” operation. There have been numerous instances of ISIS and al-Nusra use of chemicals both in Syria and Iraq, the most recent being just this past week in western Mosul. And the similar Ghouta “false flag” in 2013 almost succeeded, apparently aided by Turkish intelligence, stopped only when Director of National Intelligence James Clapper paid a surprise visit to President Obama in the Oval Office to tell him that the case against Damascus was not a “slam dunk.”

And the physical evidence that the Syrians launched a chemical attack from the air has been challenged. The only eyewitness to surface, a 14-year-old, has described how she saw a bomb drop from an airplane and hit a nearby building, which produced a mushroom cloud. It is just as the Russians and Syrians described the incident and rules out sarin, which is colorless. And then there is the testimony of Professor Theodore Postol, professor emeritus of science, technology, and national-security policy at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Postol has examined the evidence in the photos and concluded that the toxin was fired from the ground, not from the air, adding that no competent analyst would believe otherwise—suggesting that there was a rush to judgment. Postol concluded that “it can be shown, without doubt, that the document does not provide any evidence whatsoever that the U.S. government has concrete knowledge that the government of Syria was the source of the chemical attack.”

Former weapons inspector Scott Ritter has also disputed the findings in the White House report, noting that what evidence there is points to the use of conventional weapons by the Syrians. He also notes that the Su-22’s available weapons cannot deliver a chemical or gas attack from the air, something which Donald Trump and his advisers might not have been aware of.

And then there are the victims. The tests confirming the presence of sarin were carried out in Turkish hospitals and Ankara is far from a neutral party, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan having demanded repeatedly that al-Assad be removed.

It is all too easy to forget that the rebels and their associates are killers, with little to differentiate them from the crimes that are being laid at Bashar al-Assad’s door. Two recent examples of rebel brutality include the beheading of a child and the recent bombing of Syrian refugees waiting to cross into government-controlled territory. The latter attack killed more people—including women, children, and babies—than the incident at Khan Shaykhun, but it was not so much as mentioned by President Trump. It was only briefly reported in the U.S. media before being dropped down the memory hole, presumably because it did not fit the prevailing narrative.

Other videos and pictures of Khan Shaykhun victims cited by the White House show survivors being assisted by alleged medical personnel, who appear not be wearing any protective garb. If the chemical agent had actually been sarin, they too would have been affected. And the symptoms of sarin are similar to the symptoms experienced with exposure to other toxins, including chlorine and smoke munitions. One survivor noted a smell of rotten food and garlic. Sarin is, in addition to being colorless, odorless.

And then there is the question of al-Assad’s chemical-weapons supply. It is now being asserted by the White House that the Syrians retained a significant capability, but that is not what Secretary of State John Kerry said in July 2014, when he claimed everything was destroyed: “We struck a deal where we got 100 percent of the chemical weapons out.” The United States, working with Russia, was instrumental in destroying the Syrian chemical stockpile.

It certainly appears that there was a rush to judgment on the part of the White House and the top presidential advisors. It is possible that al-Assad did what he has been accused of, but the Trump administration decided to assign guilt to the Syrians before they could have known with any clarity what had happened. As in the case of Iraq, the available intelligence was made to fit the preferred narrative. All that remained was to call a meeting of top advisors to determine exactly how to punish Damascus. The truth about what occurred in Syria on April 4 remains to be discovered, and is almost certainly possessed by many in the U.S. intelligence community. Perhaps someday, someone who understands what happened will feel compelled to reveal what he or she knows.

Meanwhile, the fallout from the incident and the U.S. retaliation is severe and potentially catastrophic. As Princeton Professor Stephen Cohen, America’s leading expert on Russia, put it recently:

I think this is the most dangerous moment in American-Russian relations, at least since the Cuban missile crisis. And arguably, it’s more dangerous, because it’s more complex. … So the question arises, naturally: Why did Trump launch 50 Tomahawk missiles at a Syrian Air Force base, when, God help us, he did kill some people, but was of no military value whatsoever? Was this meant to show ‘I’m not a Kremlin agent?’ Because, normally, a president would have done the following. You would go to the United Nations … and ask for an investigation about what happened with those chemical weapons. And then you would decide what to do. But while having dinner at Mar-a-Lago with the leader of China, who was deeply humiliated, because he’s an ally of Russia, they rushed off these Tomahawk missiles.

Philip Giraldi, a former CIA officer, is executive director of the Council for the National Interest.

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[patriotnewsblogger-blog]

Did Assad Order the Syrian Gas Attack?

New Post has been published on http://www.therightnewsnetwork.com/did-assad-order-the-syrian-gas-attack/

Did Assad Order the Syrian Gas Attack?

On the morning of April 4, a Syrian Air Force Russian-made Sukhoi-22 fighter bomber dropped or fired something at a target in rebel-held Idlib Governorate. A cloud of some chemical substance subsequently materialized and drifted to the adjacent inhabited village of Khan Shaykhun, where it killed between 50 and 100 people. We also know that the Russians used a “hotline” prior to the attack to alert the United States military that the strike would be taking place against what was apparently described as an arms depot.

We also know about what might be considered collateral damage. The deaths and alleged use of chemical weapons were described by President Donald Trump as a “vital national-security interest” and served as the pretext for a strike by 59 U.S. cruise missiles two days later, which was directed against the Syrian air base at al-Shayrat. The U.S. attack did little damage and the base was soon again operational. The White House also reversed itself regarding possible Syrian peace talks, declaring that Bashar al-Assad must be removed as a condition for any political settlement of the ongoing crisis. It also described Russia as complicit in protecting the Syrian president. Secretary of State Tillerson declared that bilateral relations with Moscow cannot improve as long as Russia is supporting al-Assad. The relationship with Russia is, according to President Trump, at an “all-time low.”

The U.S. government, in support of its narrative justifying the cruise-missile attack, has issued a four-page assessment entitled “The Assad Regime’s Use of Chemical Weapons on April 4, 2017.” The report was issued by the National Security Council, which is part of the White House, and was authored by Lt. Gen. H.R. McMaster, the national-security advisor, rather than Director of National Intelligence Dan Coats. The provenance suggests that it might not be what it is touted as, a “Summary of the U.S. Intelligence Community’s Assessment …” It makes a number of claims, some of which might be considered fact-based, while others seem questionable.

Bear in mind that nearly all the information and physical evidence available from the attack site in Syria has come from anti-Assad sources linked to al-Qaeda affiliate al-Nusra, which controls the area. This includes the so-called White Helmets, who are opposition surrogates. The established narrative derives from this material as well as from bipartisan assertions of Assad’s “certain” guilt, even from normally liberal Democrats, which are being presented as fact. 

The four-page White House report is supplemented by commentary provided by McMaster and Secretary of Defense James Mattis (also a former general) on the day of the U.S. attack, as well as a more recent interview with CIA Director Mike Pompeo, which describes the decision-making process and the military options. Each official, as well as President Trump, took it as a given that Syria had carried out the attack. Regarding the motive for such an attack, the report claims that Damascus was seeking to halt a rebel advance. Others in the media have claimed that it was done to “test” the United States or intimidate the Syrian population, but some other observers find those explanations elusive. After all, Bashar al-Assad would have had no good reason to stage a chemical attack when he was winning the war, while the rebels theoretically had plenty of motivation to stage a “false flag” attack to alienate Damascus from Western Europe and the Americans.

There is considerable repetition in the White House report describing Syrian involvement, rebel inability to mount a chemical attack, physical remains, and symptoms of the dead and injured. It says that the U.S. government is “confident” that the Syrian government carried out a chemical attack using “a neurotoxic agent like sarin … against its own people” on the morning of April 4, and that it would have been impossible for the rebels to fabricate the incident because it would be too complicated for them to do so. The alleged U.S. intelligence relating to understanding the attack included Sigint, geospatial monitoring, and physiological examination. Plus “Credible open source reporting … tells a clear and consistent story.” This included commercial-satellite imagery, which shows the impact sites of the weapons used, and opinions registered by civilian agencies like Medecins Sans Frontieres and Amnesty International.

The U.S. government report also maintains that Syria has violated its international obligations by retaining chemical-weapons capabilities even though it agreed to destroy all stocks in 2013. The narrative also insists that the still highly controversial attack made on Ghouta in 2013 was, in fact, carried out by Damascus. Syrian chemical-weapons experts were probably “involved in planning the [current] attack.” Symptoms of the victims were consistent with exposure to sarin.

Since the attack, per the report, the Russians and Syrians have been spinning out “false narratives” employing “multiple, conflicting accounts [of what took place] in order to create confusion and sow doubt within the international community.”

As noted above, beyond the bare bones of the Syrian attack, the U.S. retaliation, and the casualties, there is little in the incidents and the surrounding analysis that can be regarded as hard fact. Little in the National Security Council report is unassailable, and one should note that almost none of it is based on U.S. intelligence resources. The possibility that a Syrian chemical-weapons expert was “probably” involved expresses uncertainty, suggesting that an intercepted telephone call is being generously interpreted. And the geospatial monitoring is either a satellite (or even a drone) overhead, or possibly an AWACS plane operating along the nearby Turkish border, which would register the flight path of the Su-22 and the subsequent explosion(s), hardly conclusive evidence of anything beyond what we already know to be true.

The thinness of the U.S. intelligence came through in an April 13 talk by CIA Director Mike Pompeo, who described the pressure from the White House to come up with an “assessment.” As a bottom line, he commented that “Everyone saw the open-source photos, so we had reality on our side.” One might observe that that reality was derived from Google satellite photography possibly adjusted by the rebels and freely interpreted by the media, not from the $80 billion per year intelligence community.

Observers should also reexamine the assumption that rebels would be unable to either mount a chemical attack or create a “false flag” operation. There have been numerous instances of ISIS and al-Nusra use of chemicals both in Syria and Iraq, the most recent being just this past week in western Mosul. And the similar Ghouta “false flag” in 2013 almost succeeded, apparently aided by Turkish intelligence, stopped only when Director of National Intelligence James Clapper paid a surprise visit to President Obama in the Oval Office to tell him that the case against Damascus was not a “slam dunk.”

And the physical evidence that the Syrians launched a chemical attack from the air has been challenged. The only eyewitness to surface, a 14-year-old, has described how she saw a bomb drop from an airplane and hit a nearby building, which produced a mushroom cloud. It is just as the Russians and Syrians described the incident and rules out sarin, which is colorless. And then there is the testimony of Professor Theodore Postol, professor emeritus of science, technology, and national-security policy at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Postol has examined the evidence in the photos and concluded that the toxin was fired from the ground, not from the air, adding that no competent analyst would believe otherwise—suggesting that there was a rush to judgment. Postol concluded that “it can be shown, without doubt, that the document does not provide any evidence whatsoever that the U.S. government has concrete knowledge that the government of Syria was the source of the chemical attack.”

Former weapons inspector Scott Ritter has also disputed the findings in the White House report, noting that what evidence there is points to the use of conventional weapons by the Syrians. He also notes that the Su-22’s available weapons cannot deliver a chemical or gas attack from the air, something which Donald Trump and his advisers might not have been aware of.

And then there are the victims. The tests confirming the presence of sarin were carried out in Turkish hospitals and Ankara is far from a neutral party, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan having demanded repeatedly that al-Assad be removed.

It is all too easy to forget that the rebels and their associates are killers, with little to differentiate them from the crimes that are being laid at Bashar al-Assad’s door. Two recent examples of rebel brutality include the beheading of a child and the recent bombing of Syrian refugees waiting to cross into government-controlled territory. The latter attack killed more people—including women, children, and babies—than the incident at Khan Shaykhun, but it was not so much as mentioned by President Trump. It was only briefly reported in the U.S. media before being dropped down the memory hole, presumably because it did not fit the prevailing narrative.

Other videos and pictures of Khan Shaykhun victims cited by the White House show survivors being assisted by alleged medical personnel, who appear not be wearing any protective garb. If the chemical agent had actually been sarin, they too would have been affected. And the symptoms of sarin are similar to the symptoms experienced with exposure to other toxins, including chlorine and smoke munitions. One survivor noted a smell of rotten food and garlic. Sarin is, in addition to being colorless, odorless.

And then there is the question of al-Assad’s chemical-weapons supply. It is now being asserted by the White House that the Syrians retained a significant capability, but that is not what Secretary of State John Kerry said in July 2014, when he claimed everything was destroyed: “We struck a deal where we got 100 percent of the chemical weapons out.” The United States, working with Russia, was instrumental in destroying the Syrian chemical stockpile.

It certainly appears that there was a rush to judgment on the part of the White House and the top presidential advisors. It is possible that al-Assad did what he has been accused of, but the Trump administration decided to assign guilt to the Syrians before they could have known with any clarity what had happened. As in the case of Iraq, the available intelligence was made to fit the preferred narrative. All that remained was to call a meeting of top advisors to determine exactly how to punish Damascus. The truth about what occurred in Syria on April 4 remains to be discovered, and is almost certainly possessed by many in the U.S. intelligence community. Perhaps someday, someone who understands what happened will feel compelled to reveal what he or she knows.

Meanwhile, the fallout from the incident and the U.S. retaliation is severe and potentially catastrophic. As Princeton Professor Stephen Cohen, America’s leading expert on Russia, put it recently:

I think this is the most dangerous moment in American-Russian relations, at least since the Cuban missile crisis. And arguably, it’s more dangerous, because it’s more complex. … So the question arises, naturally: Why did Trump launch 50 Tomahawk missiles at a Syrian Air Force base, when, God help us, he did kill some people, but was of no military value whatsoever? Was this meant to show ‘I’m not a Kremlin agent?’ Because, normally, a president would have done the following. You would go to the United Nations … and ask for an investigation about what happened with those chemical weapons. And then you would decide what to do. But while having dinner at Mar-a-Lago with the leader of China, who was deeply humiliated, because he’s an ally of Russia, they rushed off these Tomahawk missiles.

Philip Giraldi, a former CIA officer, is executive director of the Council for the National Interest.

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http://www.therightnewsnetwork.com/did-assad-order-the-syrian-gas-attack/ %cats%

[semper-legens]

116. Boundless Realm, by Foxx Nolte

Owned?: Yes Page count: 326 My summary: A non-fiction book about Walt Disney World’s Haunted Mansion, focusing on analysis, behind the scenes-anecdotes, history, and a walkthrough of the attraction. My rating: 5/5 My commentary:

If you like the Haunted Mansion, get this book.

No, like, do it now. It’s not that expensive and it’s worth it, honestly. I’ve talked about some of my Disney parks books on here before, and the resounding feel from those posts is essentially ‘it’s nice, but bare-bones’. Those books cover the basics of the attraction and its history, which is good if you’re someone with an entry-level knowledge and interest, but not for those seeking something deeper.

(God, listen to me, talking like I’m the Expert of the Haunted Mansion fandom despite never actually haven ridden the thing.)

I am glad to say that this is exactly the book I was searching for! Nolte has an insider’s knowledge of WDW’s Haunted Mansion, partially from working at the attraction, partially from years of knowledge and interest, partially from research and discussion. And I was particularly interested, because WDW’s Mansion is often treated as something of an afterthought by some HM fans, only notable for the differences between it and DL’s Mansion, and not for its own unique origin story and development - I gotta admit, my knowledge on it is severely lacking. Nolte has a lot of love for WDW’s Mansion, and it shines through every page of the text. 

It’s a well-put-together book as well - complete with black and white illustrations, photos, and diagrams to emphasise Nolte’s point. Unlike many academic works, I read it cover to cover, including the appendices, and I was very pleased at Nolte’s appendix on my beloved Phantom Manor, treating it as an attraction worth discussing rather than another afterthought as some HM fans do.

Read this book. I certainly am going to do so, over and over.