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FOREX Analysis 8/25

I’m going to post which pairs I’m think about trading tonight. 

GBP/JPY

looks like we’ve been creating a series of lower lows with sharp moves back to demand. I think the banks have been taking profit off the top, which also display on the 4hour time frame with the profit taking pin bar. Also the pinbar was placed inside a supply zone at a resistance level. My bias is towards the downside, so will be looking to enter position once we get a solid confirmation that we’re not going any higher (lower high, or bearish engulfing on the 15 min. 

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Breakout Watchlist 8/25

Here are some of my prediction on which stocks have the best chance of breaking out by Friday 

AMZN

AMZN is right at the level of a break out, what I’d like to see is a correction in the RSI, and a strong bullish engulfing candle to confirm the direction, entry on 30 mi or 15 min is going to be crucial in nailing this beast. The measured move projection looks like we can push towards $3765, but that might take a couple weeks to reach if we indeed have a break out. Buyers have been stepping in and pushing price past previous highs. Be cautious of banks performing a false breakout signal. Make sure the price action and volume shows what direction we’re headed in.

NVDA

NVDA has had one of the most successful bullish trend, just looking at the price action you can see it’s still bullish. I’d be buying any pull backs to the 8 ema, or 34 ema. You can also see on the volume candles that the banks want to move higher. (We retail traders can’t push price only institutional traders and banks can) So that is institutional and bank volume. Now NVDA has been pretty healthy as far as its uptrends. No parabolic pushes, just moving along nice and steady. It can move anywhere from $15-20 in a single day, so buying OTM options could be ideal for higher returns. Now the only caution I can really see is that we jump into the trend late, and banks decide to take some profit off the table. Beward any bearish pins followed by new lows.

AMD

Another semiconductor stock, similar to AMZN pattern, we’ve created a flag. What I’d like to see is volume step in with a nice bullish engulfing or exhaustion gap. This might be the last push we see for AMD for a while, at least until next earnings, or heavy news catalyst. I’d be cautious of any price below 75.50 as we can easily fill the gaps below and head back to demand and consolidate for a pretty long time before moving up again.

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MegaCap Recap 8/24

Updated on yesterday’s analysis

TSLA

As expected it looks like banks start taking some profits off the top this morning. Pretty large drop about $204.11 off the high. Also noted in the last post that we would head in a slight consolidation. Though, our target drop into demand was not met ($28 shy of target), there is still a high probability to head down to these levels. Reason being is the price action after the fact. I believe banks could not fulfill all their sell orders, so they may have to manipulate price a bit to get retail to believe this was a pull back that way the can sell more of their position. We need to find a true base and fair price before taking anything on on this stock. Looking for entry around demand is going be ideal with a target past the current high. 

AAPL

Pretty much same situation as TSLA, gap up pre market and sold off at open, pretty much screwing any weekly options holders who bought at the open hoping for a continuation. We gapped up only to fill the gap early in the session. Bouncing off the 8 ema, and retouch here could be a great buy opportunity.

AMZN

AMZN had a failed continuation higher, no real observation here as buyers and sellers were pretty much evenly matched. Would like to see a break out of supply and stronger demand form.

FB

No real observations on FB, failed to move higher pretty much assuming NQ had the same situation which most of these tech stocks are following.

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MegaCap Analysis 8/23

Here are the stocks I’m going to be keeping a close eye on this week. 

TSLA 

Tesla had a major run which ran in 3 levels. Seeing a 4th level is extremely rare. This is a typical rally base rally type move which forms weak demand zones as retail can confirm the up trend and banks will eventually need to take profits, so the more people believe TSLA will continue rallying, the bank can consume those buy orders and start taking profits. They will probably take profits with an initial sharp decline followed with consolidation. We’ll prob retrace back to the “weak demand” area around $1900 - $1870(demand zone) Even $1650 is doable as it’s a 61/8 Fib Level with confluence of a weak demand zone and support. Banks should make it fall back to demand and get retail to believe price is falling so they can start placing their buy orders. With the stock split coming up soon, we could see a short term consolidation, and a rally even higher. My guess is $2250. We can also see a massive divergence on the hourly chart which can signal the correction before continuing higher.  

AMZN 

AMZN has hit a supply zone, if we can break out and build a demand zone inside of supply, we can continue rallying as it looks like banks have finished consolidation and profit taking from the last major rally. Goal is to find where price can go next. If we come out of supply to the downside we can retrace to the nearest demand zone. Based on the Fib we can see the next zone would be around $3450. 

AAPL

AAPL also had a huge run last week. We broke out of a demand zone, so AAPL could actually run a bit more before building another base of consolidation. What I’d like to see is a break of $500 and could take this long. Need to watch out for any false breakouts as the banks can easily manipulate the price and trap long traders. This is much likely to happen on the first break of the support level, so patience on this on would be beneficial. 

FB 

Facebook formed a double top with second top being formed with below average volume and weak RSI . We formed a pretty large supply zone as well. I believe price can easily fall below and go for a gap fill if we can’t break out of this supply zone. Looks like the banks are consuming all the buy orders, and getting ready for a big move as well. 

GOOGL

Googl also forming a double top, weakness is showing as it was failing to break out. Based on the volume it looks like banks didn’t want google to go any higher, and most likely trapped a lot of buyers and the resistance level. Most of this move up looks like momentum not really caused by the banks. I think we can see a pretty decent pullback in to the nearest demand zone before going higher on this one. 

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Forex Analysis 8/23

My Analysis of the following Forex Pairs

EUR/USD

Entering key demand zone, we need to wait for a reaction in the demand zone before taking a trade. Waiting on Bullish Pin bar to confirm bullish trend. Looks like banks are taking profits currently before moving the trend back to new highs. Also Oversold on the RSI, fast, and slow stochastic. If we cant’ break demand low, we’ll continue an uptrend. 

USD/JPY

Strong head and shoulders pattern developed on 4 hour and 1 hour charts. Looks like banks are taking profits on the down trend. The left shoulder reached demand twice and the reaction was pretty small. Might be a good time to short this currency pair with a target at the key demand zone between 104.725 & 104.50 (Round Number). We may bounce one more time as the banks need to maximize their profits. 

GBP/USD

Crazy pattern here. Huge “M” formation. Don’t really have a prediction for this one, will need to wait for the demand zone reaction. But, judging the past movements, we could witness a huge drop in price. Will wait for a reaction in the key demand zone area.