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Introduction

The use of the Fibonacci sequence as a scale for estimating and sizing story points is a prevalent topic in Agile Scrum teams. This article addresses the frequently asked question of why the Fibonacci sequence is chosen for story points in an Agile Scrum setting.

Need for Estimation - Predictability

"When will you deliver the project?"

"How can you ask that question? We are Agile."

Predictability stands as the paramount reason for estimation in a project. With finite resources such as budget, time, and team members, predictability becomes crucial for delivering maximum outcomes within the available constraints.

What is a Story Point?

Story points serve as a unit for estimating the 'Size of Work' during story estimation. These points are team-specific and represent an imaginary unit. Various number sequences, including the Fibonacci series, are used for estimating story sizes.

Story Points Scale

Agile estimation involves abstract units, and various number sequences are used for this purpose. The Fibonacci series, modified Fibonacci series, power to two, series of five, T-shirt sizes, and other creative scales are utilized.

What is the Team Velocity?

Team velocity, a key outcome of story point estimation, represents the average of past sprints. It aids development teams in committing to work and assists product owners in budgeting and forecasting. Consistent velocity indicates a consistent throughput by a team.

Benefits of Using Fibonacci Sequence for Story Points

Natural Rhythm

The Fibonacci series, occurring in nature as Fibonacci numbers, aligns with a natural rhythm. Its progression reflects a harmonious and naturally evolving sequence.

Fibonacci Series Resembles Product Backlog

In a product backlog, stories at the top are more refined, mirroring the increasing gaps in the Fibonacci series. This granularity mirrors the principle of "being roughly right over being precisely wrong."

Problems Don't Grow in Sequence

Problems vary in size, and the Fibonacci series captures this non-linear growth. It discourages assuming that a problem is exactly double or triple the size of another, promoting more accurate estimation.

Humans Are Bad at Estimation but Good at Comparison

Human estimation skills excel in comparison rather than precision. The Fibonacci series, with its relative sizing, accommodates this human tendency and is more effective than linear scales.

Accurate Estimate is Oxymoron

The concept of an accurate estimate is challenged, as precision is often unattainable. The Fibonacci series embraces the idea of estimating within a range, aligning with the Cone of Uncertainty in project management.

Law of Large Numbers

The law of large numbers suggests that, over a large number of stories, variations in estimates tend to balance out, providing a more accurate aggregate. This principle helps in minimizing the impact of individual estimation errors.

Faster Estimation Using Poker Game for Story Pointing

Story pointing through poker games encourages group ownership and quicker consensus building. The ranges in the Fibonacci series facilitate faster decision-making, avoiding prolonged arguments over precise numbers.

Disassociate From a Formula

The Fibonacci series disassociates from a specific formula, reducing psychological attachment to numerical scales. This detachment helps teams focus on relative sizing without fixating on formulaic approaches.

Disadvantages of Non-Numeric Scales

While non-numeric scales like T-shirt sizes or physical relationships may be familiar, they lack comparison units and even distribution. The Fibonacci series, with its numerical sequence, outperforms non-numeric scales in reflecting backlog granularity.

It's Easy and Fun

Story pointing with the Fibonacci sequence is simpler and more enjoyable compared to traditional estimation techniques. Once understood, it becomes an easy and fun method that promotes collaborative decision-making.

In conclusion, the Fibonacci sequence offers a range of advantages for story point estimation, aligning with human psychology, nature, and the dynamic nature of project complexities. Its ease of use and adaptability make it a preferred choice for Agile Scrum teams.

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How to Evaluate the Success of Release Planning or PI Planning

Introduction: "When will you deliver the project?" "How can you ask that question? We are Agile."

These dialogues are familiar in projects, particularly for scaled Scrum teams engaging in Release Planning or PI (Program Increment) Planning. This standard practice involves strategic planning for a set duration or specific sprints, distributing work from the product backlog, and prioritizing it for targeted releases. This article focuses on post-planning evaluation, exploring the metrics and reports essential for justifying plan versus actual outcomes and the return on investment (ROI) for the significant resource investment in planning meetings.

Release Planning/PI Planning Definitions

PI Planning

PI Planning, a formal event in the Scaled Agile Framework (SAFe), acts as the heartbeat of the Agile Release Train (ART). It aligns all teams on the ART to a shared mission and vision.

Release Planning

A commitment to delivering an increment of product value, involving collaboration among scrum masters, product owners, delivery teams, and stakeholders. It serves as a high-level plan, distinct from sprint planning meetings.

Success Factors in Release Planning

For Product Stakeholders: Alignment with Business Goals

Release planning allows product stakeholders, including product owners, managers, clients, and higher management, to align their vision with the plan. It transforms business goals into an implementation plan, enabling stakeholders to witness the realization of their vision sprint by sprint.

For Scrum Teams: Planning Work for the Next Sprints

Scrum teams utilize release planning to define their roadmap for upcoming sprints, providing a holistic view of the business value delivered over time. It offers a bird's eye perspective, aligning team efforts with the broader picture.

For Scrum of Scrum: Identifying Cross-Team Dependencies and Risks

Release planning, despite its chaotic nature, helps teams identify and minimize dependencies through discussions. It also surfaces risks that can be tracked, mitigated, or accepted.

For Resource Management: Capacity Planning

Release planning serves as an opportunity for resource managers to conduct capacity planning for future sprints. It makes the available work visible, facilitating decisions on onboarding new team members or adjusting team structures.

Metrics/Reports for Success Evaluation

Emphasis on Working Software

As per the Agile Manifesto, working software is the primary measure of progress. Focusing on tangible outcomes ensures the actual delivery aligns with the planned goals.

Cautionary Note on Metrics

While metrics are crucial, it's essential to heed caution, acknowledging that not all vital aspects can be quantified. Long-term and significant issues may not have pre-defined metrics, emphasizing the need for a balanced approach.

Importance of Relevant Metrics

Metrics serve as agreed-upon measures to evaluate organizational progress. However, their relevance and alignment with actual business and technical objectives must be critically assessed to avoid the pitfalls of measuring the wrong elements.

In conclusion, successful release planning evaluation involves a balanced reliance on relevant metrics, emphasizing tangible outcomes, and recognizing the nuanced nature of success in an agile context.

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Planning Poker serves as a consensus-driven, gamified method for estimating efforts or the relative size of development tasks, primarily applied in software development. This comprehensive article delves into the effective utilization of Planning Poker as an agile estimation technique.

Understanding Planning Poker

Planning Poker is a collaborative approach to determine estimates or the 'size of work' for a team-assigned task. In this consensus-based technique, team members individually cast their votes for the estimate, and the entire team collectively finalizes the estimation. Widely employed in software development, particularly in agile frameworks like Scrum and extreme programming, Planning Poker fosters teamwork and effective estimation.

Historical Background

James Grenning initially designed Planning Poker, and its popularity surged under the trademark of Mike Cohn. Grenning's original paper on Planning Poker can be found here.

Research from the Rand Corporation in the 1940s revealed the inherent challenge humans face in accurately estimating hours, a difficulty consistently observed in practical experiences. Planning Poker addresses this challenge by providing relative estimates that consider factors like risk, uncertainty, and complexity.

Relative Estimates

Planning Poker generates relative estimates, emphasizing the size of work rather than precise, absolute figures. Unlike construction projects with well-defined tasks, software development involves hidden complexities that surface progressively, making accurate hour-based estimates challenging.

Versatility of the Technique

While rooted in the Wideband Delphi method, Planning Poker's adaptability extends beyond software development. This consensus-based approach can be applied to estimate various scenarios, such as predicting stock market trends or forecasting a country's population. A panel of experts provides individual estimates, engages in debates, and reaches a consensus on the final estimate.

Value Added by Planning Poker Estimation

Predictability, not pinpoint accuracy, is the goal of estimation.

Story points aid in sprint planning, ensuring achievable team commitments.

Establishing a common understanding of tasks and uncovering biases.

Filtering both pessimistic and optimistic estimation biases.

Revealing hidden assumptions and sharing insights within the development team.

Facilitating active participation and learning for each Scrum team member.

Implementation Timing

Planning Poker can be employed during product backlog refinement or sprint planning meetings. Stories can undergo multiple evaluations, especially if initially estimated at higher levels, prompting the need for splitting into smaller tasks.

Physical vs. Online Planning Poker

In co-located environments, using physical planning poker cards during discussions is recommended. These cards include unique elements like the Infinity card, Question card, and Coffee Break card.

In essence, Planning Poker stands as a valuable technique, emphasizing collaboration, adaptability, and effective estimation within agile frameworks and beyond.

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Agilebin Retrospective: the tool that helps you continuously improve your team's performance! Our user-friendly interface makes it easy for your team to reflect on their work and identify areas for improvement. With Agilebin Retrospective, you can track progress, set goals, and keep everyone on the same page. Say goodbye to ineffective team meetings and hello to a more productive and collaborative work environment.

Starting a new meeting is very easy. Go to the agilebin Retrospective page, provide your board name and click on Start Meeting button. A new meeting will start. The meeting link will be available at the top. Whoever start the meeting, becomes facilitator of the meeting. As the facilitator of the meeting, you need to share the meeting link with other team members so that they can join the same meeting.

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https://www.bedirectory.com/Retrospective-Board--Free-Online-Board-for-Retro-Meeting--Agilebin_324434.html

Agilebin Retrospective: the tool that helps you continuously improve your team's performance! Our user-friendly interface makes it easy for your team to reflect on their work and identify areas for improvement. With Agilebin Retrospective, you can track progress, set goals, and keep everyone on the same page. Say goodbye to ineffective team meetings and hello to a more productive and collaborative work environment.

Starting a new meeting is very easy. Go to the agilebin Retrospective page, provide your board name and click on Start Meeting button. A new meeting will start. The meeting link will be available at the top. Whoever start the meeting, becomes facilitator of the meeting. As the facilitator of the meeting, you need to share the meeting link with other team members so that they can join the same meeting.

How to use agilebin Retrospective board agilebin Retrospective provide free online retrospective board for distributed scrum teams.