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‘Stealth phase’ over? Why Wall Street FOMO will make $20K Bitcoin look cheap
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‘Stealth phase’ over? Why Wall Street FOMO will make $20K Bitcoin look cheap
The year 2020 sucked for pretty much everyone. Unless you’re holding Bitcoin (BTC) that is.
The price of Bitcoin is up 125% year-to-date, making it once again the best-performing asset just as it has been for the past decade.
Strangely enough, the public seems completely oblivious to this fact. But not everyone is ignoring Bitcoin’s latest rally above $16,000. Currently, the price is just 20% shy of its all-time high.
Wall Street is not here yet
Considering the impressive year Bitcoin is having, it’s not surprising that Wall Street is now starting to realize that the world’s first decentralized cryptocurrency isn’t going anywhere.
Remember 2017? That historic Bitcoin price rally was largely driven by retail traders — the average Joe — who were anticipating a Wall Street stampede alongside the frenzy of new tokens minted via initial coin offerings.
At the same time, the CME introduced their cash-settled Bitcoin futures right at the peak in December 2017 and… pop!
BTC price dropped sharply in the following months and the hype fizzled into a multi-year bear market. Obituaries from the news media made the average Joe eat the loss, and many wrote Bitcoin off as just another bubble that burst.
Google searches for “Bitcoin” pretty much tell the whole story.

Google Trends searches for “Bitcoin” (2015-2020). Source: Google
But in 2020, the public searches for Bitcoin no longer reflect BTC as its price has “decoupled.”
What’s more interesting is that even Wall Street still remains largely on the sidelines suggesting that BTC may be very undervalued at $16,000 and with a market cap of $297 billion. However, the latest data suggests that this is already beginning to change.
“Wall Street is not here yet,” Gemini exchange co-founder Cameron Winklevoss explained last month. Winklevoss added:
“Institutions aren’t in Bitcoin right now. It’s been a retail phenomenon for the last decade. So Wall Street talks about it, they’re aware of Bitcoin, but they’re not really in it from our perspective, but it’s starting to happen.”
Wealthy zip-codes in New York and Silicon Valley drive BTC price
As Cointelegraph reported earlier this month, it is mainly wealthy areas in New York and Silicon Valley — home to many high-net-worth individuals — that are most interested in Bitcoin right now.
But while the public is largely unaware, several wealthy investors are heralding BTC as a new asset class. Paul Tudor Jones, Michael Saylor and Stanley Druckenmiller have made waves in 2020, revealing their positions in Bitcoin.
Do they realize something that the public did not in 2017? Was the average Joe simply too early then?
Jones said investing in BTC is like investing early in Apple stock. Saylor stated that his company, MicroStrategy, which bought up a total of $425 million in Bitcoin, will hold it for 100 years calling it “the world’s best collateral.”
Meanwhile, Druckenmiller, the latest big-name Bitcoin convert, now argues that “If the gold bet works, the Bitcoin bet will probably work better.”
Together, these smart money investors are beginning to realize one thing. As Tyler Winklevoss put it:
“Bitcoin is better at being gold than gold.”
Gold is up just 23% in 2020 during a year of global economic upheaval, which is when this safe-haven metal was supposed to shine (pun intended).
But Bitcoin, or “digital gold,” has been stealing the show by gaining 125% year-to-date and up by almost 300% from its coronavirus-crash lows in March. What’s more, BTC’s market cap is just 2.36% of gold’s, which some long-term investors see as the best asymmetric risk-reward ratio bet in history.
Individuals who bought Bitcoin 10 or even five years ago would most likely agree.
The end of Bitcoin’s “stealth phase”
With its fixed supply, Bitcoin is becoming particularly attractive as a hedge against inflation, which is all but guaranteed by the United States Federal Reserve.
But unlike gold, Bitcoin is absolutely scarce. Its supply is mathematically fixed and cannot be changed by any authority.
What’s more, the rate at which new BTC is mined is reduced by 50% every four years, which analysts argue is one of the biggest catalysts for new bull market cycles. This event is called the halving, with the last one occurring in May 2020.
Market sentiment cycle. Source: Michaël van de Poppe
Cryptocurrency trader Michaël van de Poppe believes that the Bitcoin market is now exiting the Stealth Phase and entering the Awareness Phase. No longer is BTC just digital money for buying drugs on the dark web.
According to van de Poppe:
“With Stan Druckenmiller, Michael Saylor, and more listed companies jumping into the Bitcoin markets, it’s quite clear that we’re at the early stage of a new bull cycle.”
Bitcoin is a small club, and you can be in it
In addition to the halving, the aforementioned investors have also noticed that BTC’s fundamentals, network activity, and on-ramp infrastructure (e.g. Cash App, PayPal) have all significantly improved since 2017. So it’s not surprising that this emerging asset class is starting to look like a no-brainer bet to smart money.
Other investors will also eventually realize that a small allocation of capital into Bitcoin significantly boosts portfolio returns. Last month, the co-founder of 10T Holdings, Dan Tapiero, noted:
“Only 3% BTC position in past 5yrs would have increased performance of a 60/40 portfolio from 6.8% to 10.2%.”
At this rate, investment fund clients will begin asking questions such as: Why is my nephew’s Bitcoin stash outperforming my 401K, FAANG stocks, gold, and Warren Buffett put together? How do I gain exposure to Bitcoin?
But what makes Bitcoin truly unique is that it doesn’t play by Wall Street’s rules. It’s software with its own set of rules. It is not a stock or an IPO. It’s a technology that’s open to all and voluntary to use. It has early adopters, not insiders. It has market cycles, not bailouts. It has existed for over a decade and grows stronger by the day.
Despite already existing for nearly 12 years, Bitcoin is only now starting to be noticed and taken seriously by serious investors. At the same time, it maintains the lowest barrier to entry for everyone else compared to traditional finance.
This is precisely why Bitcoin still presents a unique opportunity for the average Joe: to acquire BTC now at lower prices than what Wall Street will pay for it later.
The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.
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China’s leadership in the Bitcoin mining industry will be challenged
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China’s leadership in the Bitcoin mining industry will be challenged
If you talk about Bitcoin (BTC) mining, you have to talk about China. China has become a giant in the Bitcoin mining ecosystem with major mines and pools, quick, cheap labor and a majority control of the world’s hashing power. So, should you go set up a mining operation there? Do the pros outweigh the cons? Is China actually a threat to the Bitcoin ecosystem? Let’s look at the state of Chinese mining.
Back to the basics
In the beginning of Bitcoin, you could simply mine from your laptop or set up a few miners in your home to run the hashing algorithm. But as more miners started turning on and the Bitcoin mining difficulty rose, higher levels of computing power and electricity was needed to solve the equations and reap the reward.
Only a finite amount of Bitcoin can be mined — 21 million tokens — so as time goes on, it will get harder and harder to mine them. Miners continue to need better and faster hardware, which requires more electricity. Today, mining operations are moving to large data centers where thousands of miners run day and night.
Related: How to mine Bitcoin: Everything you need to know
Why mention all of this? Because when mining at a large scale, electricity costs, labor costs, the speed of acquiring new hardware and sustainability come into play if generating profit is the goal — and China has the advantage in nearly all of these areas.
The state of mining in China
At the end of 2019, China produced nearly two-thirds of the world’s hashing power. Even though cryptocurrency usage and exchanges are reportedly banned in China and Bitcoin mining was once in danger of being shut down, the government took an about-face and is increasingly embracing the use of blockchain technology in its major industries — and allowing Bitcoin mining to grow.
Related: US Bitcoin holders worry about Chinese control of the mining network
Bitcoin mining in China is a growing industry because labor costs are cheap, turn-around time is incredibly quick, and lead time and production costs are much lower, since the country is a hub for global trade. Since much of the hardware used to mine Bitcoin is made in China, miners can very quickly be upgraded. If you want to set up a data center fast with low overhead and expenses, do it in China.
Low electricity costs in the form of hydropower are available as well. Because Bitcoin mining requires so much electricity between powering the miners and powering the fans to cool the miners, a data center needs to get electricity as cheaply as possible. Hydropower in the Sichuan province is reportedly as low as $0.02 per kWh during the rainy season, and the Chinese government is now encouraging mining in this province so operations can take advantage of the hydropower plants there.
Related: Sichuan rainy season to give Bitcoin hash rate a much needed jolt
But only some Chinese mining operations run on cleaner, cheaper hydropower. Most run instead on coal, which is a dirtier and more expensive option. Of the main power sources today, hydro is the cheapest, at around $0.01 to $0.02 per kWh, with wind being another cheap option at $0.025 cents per kwh. Gas and coal are the more expensive options, at $0.03 to $0.035 cents (plus transmission costs and taxes). So, while labor and materials may be cheap, coal usage makes mining operations unsustainable from both a cost perspective and environmental perspective. Factor in the political instability of setting up mining operations in China, and you may want to look elsewhere.
Can China stay on top?
Anyone wanting to set up scaled mining operations are increasingly seeking out locations in Nordic countries, Canada and the United States. While these locations may offer higher start-up expenses and maintenance costs, the availability of sustainable, cost-effective electricity is proving to be a big advantage. Additionally, these areas are more politically stable, so there is less threat that the government will one day decide to shut down all mining operations. In fact, Canada deemed mining operations as “essential services” during its COVID-19 pandemic shutdown.
Related: Regulatory overview of crypto mining in different countries
This may be the reason why the world’s hashing power is shifting locations. According to a recent report, Chinese hashing power is decreasing compared with last year yet growing in other parts of the world.
Another reason for this decrease may be that Chinese mining was hit hard in 2020. The COVID-19 pandemic disrupted supply chains, causing new hardware to be significantly delayed in getting to data centers. In an industry where every minute counts, using slower, older miners for even a day longer means losing money and advantage. Additionally, China’s quarantine rules prevented workers from tending to their rigs, further disrupting operations.
Additionally, the third Bitcoin halving occurred this past May, cutting the mining reward in half and forcing miners to make significant upgrades to their hardware to stay competitive. Because it now takes twice as much hashing power to mine the same amount of Bitcoin as a year ago, mining operations have needed to not only upgrade, but make sure their energy costs were staying efficient. Following the halving, many miners around the world switched off because the endeavor was no longer profitable.
On top of it all, this summer’s monsoon season caused excessive flooding in the Sichuan province, leading to electrical shortages that cut up to 20% of the region’s hash rate.
Despite these significant setbacks, mining in China is sure to bounce back. But with other parts of the world embracing and encouraging Bitcoin mining, and with the greater sustainability offered elsewhere, we may soon see China’s place as the giant of the industry challenged.
The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.
Philip Salter is the head of mining operations at Genesis Mining, the world’s largest cloud crypto mining operation, where he leads the software development, data engineering and research teams. Salter started his career as a software developer for BSI Business Systems Integration AG. Salter is an avid miner and crypto enthusiast based in Germany.
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Inflation games: Bitcoin competes with fiat on value but lacks volume
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Inflation games: Bitcoin competes with fiat on value but lacks volume
Bitcoin being regarded as “sound money” is a common refrain among many proponents of the popular cryptocurrency. With a finite supply of 21 million and a network secured by over 120 exahashes per second of computing power, the consensus among industry commentators has often leaned toward it becoming a global monetary superpower.
Barely a decade into its existence, Bitcoin’s inferred value is already the 11th-largest global monetary base. Earlier in November, Bitcoin became larger than the Russian ruble for the first time in history.
While fiat currencies buckle under economic strain exacerbated by the coronavirus pandemic, Bitcoin (BTC) has continued on its upward trajectory for most of 2020. Even though the price fluctuations are much more volatile, BTC is up about 120% year-to-date despite the Black Thursday event, a substantial decline suffered back in mid-March.
With economic recovery plans likely involving considerable stimulus packages, such cash injections are expected to cause significant devaluation in fiat currency values. If Bitcoin follows through on the parabolic advance predicted by numerous market analysts, it stands ready to move even higher up the global monetary base log.
The entire record of world reserve currency history remains consistent with the fact that monetary bases rise and fall. In the six monetary epochs since 1450, no currency has maintained global dominance for more than 110 years. With the U.S. dollar standing at 95 years of being the world’s reserve currency, some are hoping this is a sign that things may change soon.
Fiat currencies weaken
Despite being the most gold-backed fiat currency in the global market, the Russian ruble now has a lower monetary base than Bitcoin. With the ruble losing further ground to the U.S. dollar and BTC jumping to the $16,000 mark, 1 BTC now equals 1.2 million rubles. Up next for Bitcoin in its assault of major currencies is the Canadian dollar. Based on its current circulating supply, a move above $18,000 for BTC would see it overtaking the CAD.
As previously reported, Bitcoin is already at all-time highs against seven national currencies including those of Brazil, Argentina and Turkey. Rising inflation exacerbated by economic stagnation occasioned by COVID-19 has negatively impacted several fiat currencies.
For now, Bitcoin’s all-time high remains the $19,665 attained during the December 2017 bull run. However, for Bitcoin to begin to challenge the premier global currencies like the U.S. dollar, Chinese yuan and Japanese yen, it will need to reach a six-figure price, according to John Todaro, research head at institutional trading platform TradeBlock, who told Cointelegraph:
“We could see Bitcoin surpass other major fiat currencies, but it depends on how one measures the size of an FX market. The New Zealand Dollar (‘kiwi’) is at the lower end of the group and the most susceptible to being passed by Bitcoin but currently sees over $100 billion in daily trading volume, which is well above that of Bitcoin. Unlike other hard money assets, Bitcoin does see high trading turnover, so even at a modestly higher market cap, Bitcoin’s notional trading volume could be quite a bit higher than it is today.”
Bitcoin shines as global economy stutters
The parabolic advance required to propel Bitcoin to such heights would also place BTC firmly in the same category as gold — as a bonafide store of asset value. Several proponents of the popular cryptocurrency already identify BTC as a suitable hedge against monetary debasement and other forms of economic uncertainty.
Amid interest rate cuts back in 2019, Travis Kling, founder and chief investment officer of Ikigai Asset Management, warned that the prevailing debt situation at the time was a recipe for another global financial crisis. According to Kling, central banks were propping up growth metrics to portray the impression of a healthy economy. When Kling made these comments, the world was yet untouched by the coronavirus pandemic.
Bitcoin featured frequently in the discussions around possible safe-haven assets that could be used as a hedge against another global recession. Amid the COVID-19 panic of selling off assets, BTC did not escape the massive liquidation of Black Thursday, proving that it has not yet achieved that coveted status. The largest crypto by market capitalization crashed by almost 50%, bottoming out at about $3,800. However, in exactly eight months since then, BTC’s price is up over 300%.
Commenting on the possibility of Bitcoin reaching a new all-time high in the short term, Todaro remarked that it will be tough to establish a sustained push toward the record before the end of 2020, adding further: “This bull cycle should bring us well beyond prior ATHs on a longer-term basis and with government spending increasing and the May halving behind us, we are set up for one of the most attractive bullish periods in Bitcoin’s history.”
Joe DiPasquale, the CEO of crypto hedge fund BitBull Capital, also sees Bitcoin setting a new all-time high during this current bull run, telling Cointelegraph: “It is very likely [that Bitcoin reaches a new all-time high] since Bitcoin has now crossed $16,000, which was a key resistance level. $20,000 is not that far off from this point unless any major negative developments impact the market in the short-term.”
COVID-19 and infinite quantitative easing
While inflation remains a real concern for many countries, 2020 has been a pivotal year for Bitcoin in terms of supply dynamics. The May halving event saw the supply of new Bitcoin cut by half.
Meanwhile, several governments in response to the economic strain induced by COVID-19 adopted proactive monetary policies including stimulus cash injections. According to World Bank estimates, global gross domestic product is expected to decrease by 5.2% in 2020 — the largest contraction in decades. Back in June, the World Bank outlined a roadmap for countries to navigate the economic problems, stating:
“Policies to rebuild both in the short and long-term entail strengthening health services and putting in place targeted stimulus measures to help reignite growth, including support for the private sector and getting money directly to people. During the mitigation period, countries should focus on sustaining economic activity with support for households, firms and essential services.”
Recognizing the declining value of cash holdings, some companies are already pivoting to Bitcoin as a treasury reserve asset. Nasdaq-listed MicroStrategy made headlines back in August when it announced the acquisition of 21,454 BTC — valued at $250 million at the time. More interest from big traditional institutions followed soon as they sought to buy into Bitcoin as a means of reserve.
Related: The next big treasure: Corporations buy up Bitcoin as a treasury reserve
The business intelligence firm doubled down on its Bitcoin adoption policy with an additional 16,796-BTC ($175 million) purchase in September. In less than two months, the company has seen the value of its BTC holdings grow by over $160 million. Similar things could be said of other non-crypto native companies that bought up BTC as a reserve.
While Bitcoin retains certain characteristics pertaining to currencies, the lack of supply caps for fiat makes any attempts to draw comparisons between both somewhat problematic. If so, perhaps market capitalization makes for a better parameter in gauging Bitcoin’s growth vis-à-vis the size of other major asset bases, as DiPasquale stated:
“Bitcoin surpassing fiat currencies is not a metric we should focus on since fiat currencies have no circulation limits as such. Instead, market cap is a better metric, and Bitcoin is now among the top-20 assets (stocks, ETFs and cryptocurrencies ranking).”
Economic downturn likely difficult to reverse
In a speech delivered on Nov. 6, Jerome Powell, chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve, downplayed expectation of a swift recovery from the current economic contraction: “The current economic downturn is the most severe in our lifetime. It will take a while to get back to the levels of economic activity and employment that prevailed at the beginning of this year.”
Powell’s remarks echo similar warnings from the World Bank and other financial establishments. Indeed, the overwhelming consensus is that the confluence of global, regional and national economic constraints exacerbated by COVID-19 will be difficult to overturn in the short to medium term.
Pharmaceutical giant Pfizer recently announced that its COVID-19 vaccine was over 90% effective in preventing the virus. While the development constitutes a bit of good news in the fight against the pandemic, market analysts say the economy is destined for a downward path regardless of a vaccine.
Todaro believes that “equity markets are pricing in the COVID-19 vaccine as a savior to industrials and in-person retail companies.” However, he did add that good news alone will not kickstart economic recovery as supply and demand dynamics will need to be reestablished. Furthermore, according to Todaro, various established firms are in dire financial situations, and without additional relief by governments, they are likely to go bankrupt: “This uncertainty is starting to come back some now, with equities markets seeing a pullback.”
With more pain ahead, Bitcoin appears primed to receive even greater institutional attention as big-money players look for alternative investment vehicles. Indeed, the flow of smart money into Bitcoin already has some stakeholders predicting that BTC will challenge gold as the de facto hedge asset of choice for institutional investors.
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Keep dreaming! Options data suggests $560 Ethereum price won’t happen
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Keep dreaming! Options data suggests $560 Ethereum price won’t happen
This week, Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH) prices reached new highs as a slew of bullish news continued to pump investors’ hope that the next crypto-bull market will mirror the one seen in 2017.
Many novice traders simply follow spot prices on the major crypto exchanges to gauge the direction price might take. However, reviewing options markets data can provide additional relevant insights on market sentiment.
Looking at the most recent activity in Bitcoin options, it is clear that some trades occurred on strikes that seemed improbable even for the most bullish analysts. These trades include 20 BTC CME December call options with a $70,000 strike and the 56 BTC worth of $100,000 December strikes at LedgerX.
These anecdotal trades might not reflect the broader market conditions, but oddly enough, the highest Ether options contract for December 2020 stands at $1,120. This trade is undoubtedly bullish considering there are only 42 days left until expiry, but not even close to the BTC options pending 330% upside or higher.
It is worth noting that Deribit also holds Ether call options for March 2021, with strikes trading up to $1,600. Although this effect might have been caused by the Ethereum 2.0 launch date on Dec. 1, its upside stands at 230%. This is considerably lower than Bitcoin’s options.
ETH options open interest by strike, in ETH thousands. Source: Skew
As the data above shows, out of the $613 million in Ether options open interest, a mere 28% stands at $460 and higher. This situation can be partially explained by the 23% rally that occurred over the past 10 days, indicating that traders were not expecting these prices.
It’s also important to remember that options until March 2021 are listed on most exchanges. Therefore, some optimism ought to be expected for the more distant dates. Buying options for prices way above the market level is relatively cheap. The $600 ETH call option for January 2021 was trading at $12 just two weeks ago.
Traders are more optimistic about Bitcoin
When comparing this data to the Bitcoin options markets, there’s a striking difference. BTC options are remarkably more bullish, and there are $50K call options that were placed long ago for June and December 2021.
BTC options open interest by strike, in BTC thousands. Source: Skew
Take notice how, unlike Ether markets, there are some massive bets above $17,000. This time around, 40% out of the $3.75 billion BTC options open interest stands at $16,000 and above.
Bitcoin price has increased by 18.5% over the past 10 days, so these optimistic bets would have seemed even more unrealistic back then. Thus, the recent ETH rally shouldn’t be an excuse for the lack of over-optimistic option trades.
Consequently, one can only conclude that Ether traders were not as bullish as Bitcoin traders. Investors may infer that this is a good thing, as unrealistic expectations might frustrate investors.
Nevertheless, Ether investors’ lack of appetite in willing to bet $17 for a 25% bull run until Dec. 25 is telling.
The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.
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Why Bitcoin price just lost $16K in a ‘typical’ weekend drop
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Why Bitcoin price just lost $16K in a ‘typical’ weekend drop
The price of Bitcoin (BTC) has seen volatility within the past 12 hours. The top cryptocurrency fell from $16,400 to $15,750 within hours, rejecting sharply after surpassing the $16,000 resistance earlier this week.
As of Nov. 14, the 20-day moving average of Bitcoin on the daily chart is at $14,600. In the near term, if a pullback occurs, the $14.6K level remains a favorable area for buyers.
An algorithmic trader known as “CryptoGainz” explained that the current market structure of Bitcoin likely caused a sell-off to occur. The trader pinpointed the abundance of sell orders at $16.5K that did not subside as BTC hit $16,400.
This could indicate that the sell orders at that level are not spoofed orders. Hence, it could show that sellers are genuinely attempting to take profit on BTC at around $16,500.
The daily price chart of Bitcoin. Source: TradingView.com
Why $16.5K is a problem for Bitcoin in the near term
When traders or bots try to spoof the Bitcoin market, they place fake orders at key support or resistance levels.
For instance, if traders place large spoof orders near a resistance level, there is a chance that buyers would not push through the resistance. Hence, spoofing could be used to artificially pump up or restrict a market’s momentum.
The “asks” or sell orders above $16,500 have not disappeared during the recent BTC rally. Considering this, the probability that $16.5K would act as a heavy resistance level in the near term remains high.
When BTC was hovering at around $16,200 before the Bitcoin price drop occurred, the pseudonymous trader explained:
“I wouldn’t say we’re going to nuke, but at this point clever proprietary entities with a lot of capital and intellectual property of a certain nature realize that the 16.5k asks have been resting there for a long time and don’t appear to be lifting with price very close to there.”
The trader noted that algorithms could move to “hunt” stops of long contracts if it is profitable to do so. Based on the rapid decline of BTC in a short period, that is likely what happened as BTC dropped below $15,800. The trader added:
“Meaning, if an algorithm exists that can profitably dump price and flush longs, the conditions for its use are possibly being engineered in a manner so as to extract the maximum amount of profit. tl;dr – as soon as it’s profitable to hunt longs, your stops are getting taken.”
Where BTC price may go next
The outlook of Bitcoin among traders and analysts remains mixed. Some traders say a deep pullback to the $12,000 to $13,000 range is inevitable, if not healthy, during this bull run.
Cantering Clark, a Bitcoin trader, said a $13K retest could occur despite the strong momentum of BTC. He wrote:
“I love to get loud with everyone else when sh*t is pumping, but I am securing the bag and playing short term only right now. Feeling like we are running hot, I think the market inflicts the most pain down soon rather than up. Spot players don’t get an easy ride.”
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Bitcoin whale clusters show ‘institutional FOMO’ is behind the BTC rally
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Bitcoin whale clusters show ‘institutional FOMO’ is behind the BTC rally
Data shows that institutions heavily accumulated Bitcoin in the $12,000–$15,000 range, and according to analysts at Whalemap, this is a positive trend because institutions and whales typically accumulate assets with a longer-term investment strategy in mind.
The fact that larger hands are accumulating BTC instead of retail investors also explains the somewhat suppressed mainstream interest in Bitcoin, as Cointelegraph previously reported. Various metrics, including Google Trends, have shown lackluster mainstream demand for BTC despite its parabolic rally in recent months.
Institutional “FOMO” makes the current BTC rally stronger than previous cycles
Whalemap analysts described the recent spike in demand for Bitcoin from whales as “institutional FOMO.”
FOMO, short for “fear of missing out,” refers to a trend wherein investors increasingly buy into an asset fearing it will continuously surge. Referring to a chart showing whale clusters and inflows into whale wallets, the analysts said:
“These are the levels and this is what institutional fomo looks like.”

Bitcoin whale clusters throughout 2020. Source: Whalemap
Whale clusters emerge when whale addresses — addresses that hold over 10,000 BTC — buy Bitcoin and do not move it for prolonged periods of time.
This shows that whales plan to hold their most recent BTC purchases in their personal wallets. Whalemap analysts said:
“Bubbles indicate prices at which whales have purchased BTC that they are currently holding.”
The aggressive accumulation of Bitcoin from whales likely occurred based on two key trends that have been present in the cryptocurrency market since October.
First, there has been a sharp reduction in short-contract liquidations throughout the recent rally. In previous rallies, when BTC broke out, upward of $100 million worth of contracts were liquidated on major exchanges. This shows that the rally was not a short squeeze but an actual accumulation phase.
Second, the spot market has been leading the derivatives market, not vice versa. When the price of BTC was increasing, the funding rate of BTC was rarely over the average 0.01%.
The low funding rate shows that the futures market has not been majority long, demonstrating that the demand came from elsewhere.
This bull market will be more stable than 2017
Atop the heightened involvement of whales and institutions, overall trading volume has substantially increased in the recent rally.
Data from Santiment, an on-chain market analysis firm, also shows Bitcoin volume at around $31 billion and this is much higher than on Jan. 6, 2018. At the time, BTC price also was hovering at around $16,350.
Santiment analysts found that the ongoing rally has more volume behind it than the 2017 rally. The analysts wrote:
“With Bitcoin hitting $16,350 on CoinbasePro an hour ago, we’re now at the highest price level in 34 months (Jan 6, 2018). The avg. daily trading volume this week is $31.0B vs. $18.5B then.”
As Cointelegraph reported, the roadblock in the near term for Bitcoin remains whether whales will sell at the $17,000 resistance. Some analysts say that there is no clear resistance until the $18,500–$20,000 range, which means an all-time high could be much closer than most expect.
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6 Questions for Sheila Warren of the World Economic Forum
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6 Questions for Sheila Warren of the World Economic Forum
Each week we ask the buidlers in the blockchain and cryptocurrency sector for their thoughts on the industry… and we throw in a few random zingers to keep them on their toes!
This week our 6 Questions go to Sheila Warren, head of blockchain and DLT at the World Economic Forum.
Sheila serves on the executive committee of the World Economic Forum and the leadership team of its Centre for the Fourth Industrial Revolution, working with public-, private- and third-sector actors around the world to advance the adoption of new technologies in the global public interest. She currently focuses on blockchain, digital assets, data policy and the integration of new technologies with new data governance models.
Previously, Sheila was on the executive team at social enterprise TechSoup, built NGOsource — a service that focuses on international grant-making — and was a Wall Street lawyer. She is on the boards of the ACLU of Northern California and the Equal Justice Society, and she advises various groups, including ones focused on blockchain technology, digital currency and data ethics.
1 — If the world is getting a new currency, will it be led by CBDCs, a permissionless blockchain like Bitcoin, or a permissioned chain such as Libra?
It all depends on what problem the new form of currency is addressing. This whole “one ring to rule them all” mentality makes no sense to me; these things serve different purposes, often deliberately, and there is room for all of them! As far as what will lead, I guess I’d ask lead whom? I’m mostly interested in opportunities for financial inclusion, and any of these could potentially play a role in addressing the needs of the un/underbanked. If we’re not solving actual problems, what is the point of any of this?
2 — Which countries are doing the most to support blockchain – and which ones will be left behind?
We’re seeing the most innovation in smaller and/or frontier economies and, of course, China. Any country that is not paying attention and either already making investments in this area or standing by at the ready to do so is already behind. That being said, larger economies can certainly catch up once they do decide to enter the field, because of the resources they can bring to the table. I’m particularly excited right now about what’s happening in the Caribbean, ASEAN, and the African continent (Sierra Leone, Nigeria, Uganda, Ghana, and others). And I’m paying very close attention to China and South Korea.
3 — If you didn’t need sleep, what would you do with the extra time?
I have little kids, so I don’t sleep much to begin with! Honestly, if I had any extra time, I would sleep. Sleep is the most important thing I’m not doing enough of, and everything else is a distant second place. But if sleep were covered, I’d read even more than I already do. I get through about a book a week and would love to increase that!
4 — What talent do you lack, and wish you had? How would you use it if you had it?
I’m a musician, but I’m a pretty terrible visual artist. I never really progressed beyond stick figures, and my seven year old is routinely embarrassed by my creations. I wish I could draw! If I were better at this, my notes would be so much more interesting. I admire artists so much – the way they see the world is inspiring. I think having this particular form of sight would expand my perspective.
5 — What is the biggest obstacle facing Ethereum today – and what is its biggest opportunity?
Keeping the community engaged. Ethereum is where it is today in large part because of its community, and various groups have done a lot to ensure that loyalty goes beyond people looking to exit quick/yield farm etc but encompasses a lot of people who want to build. The potential for ETH is enormous, IF the community stays engaged and committed through the next phase. Community management is super hard under the best circumstances, and these are not those.
6 — What should we be teaching our kids?
We should be teaching our kids to stand up for what is right through action. It’s not enough to set their moral compass and hope for the best; they need to be taught what effective resistance looks like. We also need to make sure that our kids are actively anti-racist and are stewards of the global commons. And that they should always vote!
6 Questions for Sheila Warren of the World Economic Forum
Market Analysis 6 Questions for Sheila Warren of the World Economic Forum
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Price analysis 11/13: BTC, ETH, XRP, LINK, BCH, LTC, BNB, DOT, ADA, BSV
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Price analysis 11/13: BTC, ETH, XRP, LINK, BCH, LTC, BNB, DOT, ADA, BSV
Data shows that Bitcoin’s (BTC) current rally is supported by greater participation from retail and institutional investors. The CME Bitcoin futures open interest has moved closer to the previous all-time high, a sign that institutional investors are becoming more interested in cryptocurrencies. Similarly, Bitcoin’s spot volume has hit a new 52-week high, according to data from Arcane research.
However, during strong uptrends, traders tend to get greedy and take on excessive leverage. Hence, large open interest on derivatives could act as a double-edged sword because even a small decline in Bitcoin could force the highly leveraged traders to close their positions. Such a move could have a cascading effect that could lead to long liquidation.
Daily cryptocurrency market performance. Source: Coin360
While traders should be cautious, there is no need to panic as yet because the current up-move in Bitcoin has happened without any euphoria or frenzy, especially among retail traders.
Moreover, several analysts have been skeptical of the rally, which is another positive sign. The top usually forms when the last bear in the market turns bullish and there is no one left to buy.
This does not mean that there will be no corrections along the way. Pullbacks are necessary to periodically shake out the weak hands and this generally improves the longevity of the trend.
Let’s analyze the top-10 cryptocurrencies to ascertain whether the uptrend will continue or is a correction around the corner.
BTC/USD
The bulls pushed Bitcoin (BTC) above the $16,000 overhead resistance on Nov. 12. This breakout started the next leg of the uptrend that may carry the price to the critical overhead resistance at $17,200.
BTC/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView
The upsloping moving averages and the relative strength index in the overbought territory suggest that the bulls are in command. If the momentum can carry the price above $17,200, then the bulls will have a clear shot at the all-time highs.
However, traders can get cautious if the pair turns down from the current levels and drops below $16,000 once again. This will suggest that the market participants have rejected higher levels.
If the price sustains below $16,000, the bears will try to sink the BTC/USD pair below the 20-day exponential moving average ($14,596). Such a move will indicate that bulls are not buying the dips as the sentiment has turned negative.
ETH/USD
The bulls are finding it difficult to propel Ether (ETH) above the resistance line of the rising wedge pattern. However, the positive thing is that the bulls have not given up much ground.
ETH/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView
The bulls will again attempt to thrust the price above the wedge. If they can do that, the ETH/USD pair may rise to $488.134. The bears may again try to stall the up-move at this resistance. If they succeed, a drop to the 20-day EMA ($426) is possible.
Conversely, if the bulls can push the price above $488.134, the next leg of the uptrend is likely to begin. The first target on the upside is $520 and then $550. The upsloping moving averages and the RSI above 67 suggest that bears are in command.
The first sign of weakness will be a break below the 20-day EMA. Such a move could result in a drop to the support line of the wedge.
XRP/USD
XRP has been consolidating near the $0.26 overhead resistance for the past two days. This suggests that the bulls are not closing their positions in a hurry as they expect the price to break above the range.
XRP/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView
The rising moving averages and the RSI above 59 suggest that bulls are in control. A breakout and close above $0.26 could start the journey to $0.30. Above this level, the up-move may reach $0.326113.
Contrary to this assumption, if the bulls again fail to sustain the price above $0.26, then the bears will try to pull the price back below the moving averages. If they succeed, the XRP/USD pair may drop to $0.2295.
LINK/USD
The bulls failed to push and sustain Chainlink (LINK) above $13.28 on Nov. 11. This shows that the bears are aggressively defending this resistance. However, the positive thing is that the bulls have not given up much ground in the past two days.
LINK/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView
The bulls are currently attempting to drive the price above $13.28. If they manage to do that, the LINK/USD pair will complete an inverse head and shoulders pattern that has a target objective of $19.2731.
Both moving averages are sloping up and the RSI has risen above 58. This suggests a minor advantage to the bulls.
Contrary to this assumption, if the pair turns down from $13.28 once again, the bears will try to pull the price down to $9.7665. A break below this support will invalidate the bullish pattern.
BCH/USD
The bulls purchased the dip below the 20-day EMA ($257) on Nov. 12 but could not sustain the higher levels. This has attracted selling by the bears and Bitcoin Cash (BCH) has broken below the 20-day EMA.
BCH/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView
If the bears sink the price below the 50-day simple moving average ($247), the BCH/USD pair could drop to the next support at $231. The bulls have defended this support on two previous occasions, hence, a break below it may intensify selling and drag the price to $200.
However, the 20-day EMA is flat and the RSI is close to the midpoint, which suggests a few more days of range-bound action. The momentum could pick up if the bulls push the price above $280 or the bears sink the price below $231.
LTC/USD
Litecoin (LTC) has surged above the $64 resistance today, which shows that the bulls have overpowered the bears. The buyers will now try to sustain the momentum and drive the price above $68.9008.
LTC/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView
If they succeed, the next leg of the uptrend could begin. The next target is $80 and then a rally to $100 is possible. The upsloping moving averages and the RSI above 67 suggest bulls are in charge.
Contrary to this assumption, if the price again turns down from the current levels and plummets below $64, it will suggest a lack of buyers at higher levels. Such a move could attract profit booking that may result in a drop to the 20-day EMA ($57.86).
BNB/USD
Binance Coin (BNB) is currently stuck in a tight range between $28.97 and $27.30. The altcoin bounced off the support of this range on Nov. 12 and the bulls will now try to push the price above the moving averages.
BNB/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView
If they succeed, the BNB/USD pair could rise to $30 and a break above this resistance may open the gates for a rally to $32.
However, the downsloping 20-day EMA and the RSI just below the midpoint suggest a minor advantage to the bears.
If the price turns down from the current levels and breaks below $27.30, the pair may drop to $25.6652. A break below this support will signal weakness.
DOT/USD
Polkadot (DOT) turned down from $4.63 on Nov. 11 and the bears attempted to sink the price below the 20-day EMA ($4.31) on Nov. 12 but failed. This shows that bulls are defending the moving averages.
DOT/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView
The 20-day EMA is rising gradually and the RSI is above 55, which suggests that bulls have the upper hand. However, the buyers will have to sustain the price above the immediate resistance at $4.50 to increase the possibility of a move to $4.95.
Contrary to this assumption, if the DOT/USD pair again turns down from $4.50 or $4.63, the bears will try to sink the price below the moving averages. If they succeed, the pair could drop to the $3.80 support.
ADA/USD
After the bulls failed to push Cardano (ADA) higher on Nov. 10 and 11, the bears tried to sink the price below the moving averages on Nov. 12 but could not. The altcoin has currently rebounded off the 20-day EMA ($0.102) and the bulls are attempting to push the price to $0.1142241.
ADA/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView
The moving averages are rising and the RSI is in the positive zone, suggesting an advantage to the bulls. The ADA/USD pair could pick up momentum after the bulls push the price above $0.1142241.
However, if the pair turns down from the current levels and plunges below the moving averages, the bears will try to pull the price down to the $0.0893 support.
The next trending move may start after the bulls push the price above $0.1142241 or the bears sink the price below $0.0893.
BSV/USD
The bulls have failed to propel Bitcoin SV (BSV) above the 20-day EMA ($162) in the past three days. This suggests a lack of urgency among the bulls to buy at the current levels.
BSV/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView
The 20-day EMA has started to turn down and the RSI is just below the midpoint, which suggests a minor advantage to the bears.
If the sellers can sink the price below the immediate support at $154.66, the BSV/USD pair could drop to the $146 support.
This negative view will be invalidated if the bulls can push the price above the moving averages and the downtrend line. Such a move will increase the possibility of a rally to $181.
The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.
Market data is provided by HitBTC exchange.
https://ift.tt/3lqdIL4 Altcoin News Price analysis 11/13: BTC, ETH, XRP, LINK, BCH, LTC, BNB, DOT, ADA, BSV
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DAO treasuries still down 40% after October’s DeFi downtrend
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DAO treasuries still down 40% after October’s DeFi downtrend
Decentralized autonomous organizations, or DAOs, were heavily hit by October’s decentralized finance downtrend, with the total value of assets managed by DAOs crashing by 40% from 30 days ago.
According to data from DeepDAO, the combined assets under management controlled by DAOs was more than $290 million as of early October. By the second week of November, the AUM of DAOs had fallen more than 50% to tag $140 million.
As of this writing, DAOs currently manage $172.7 million in assets, with the total having increased by20% alongside the partial recovery posted by many top DeFi tokens over the past week.
Despite DAO treasuries shrinking during October, sector-wide membership increased by 1,100 (around 10%), with 11 DAOs now boasting more than 100 members each.
However, a DAO’s total membership is not necessarily a good indicator of how robust an organization’s governance may be.
Bancor is currently the largest DAO, with 4,156 members. However, the organization is yet to vote on any proposal. Similarly, pNetwork is the third-largest, with 1,243, despite conducting zero votes so far.
PieDAO is the second-largest DAO by members, with 2,145, despite only six voters participating in its sole governance proposal. PieDAO is also the largest DAO by fiat value, controlling more than $51 million worth of assets.
By contrast, dxDAO shows well-rounded strength, ranking fourth by fiat value and membership, in addition to hosting the third-largest number of governance proposals and the second-most voters of 87 decentralized organizations.
https://ift.tt/32Eiai1 Altcoin News DAO treasuries still down 40% after October’s DeFi downtrend
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BitPay launches mass crypto payments for businesses
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BitPay launches mass crypto payments for businesses
Crypto payment services provider BitPay has launched BitPay Send, a new blockchain-powered mass-payout platform for businesses.
BitPay Send allows organizations who do not want to handle or own crypto themselves to process crypto payments en masse. It can be used to complete payroll payments, pay contractors or affiliates, and process customer cashback and rewards programs. Available in 225 countries, all recipients need to pass the Know Your Customer procedure and have a cryptocurrency wallet.
BitPay claims the platform cuts processing time from days to minutes.
The service has already been adopted by advertising platform AdGate Media in order to pay affiliates around the world. AdGate president Dan Sapozhnikov explained that many of their affiliates are located outside of North America and Europe, where access to bank accounts can be difficult, so they want “to be paid in Bitcoin.” But he said that the firm “did not want to buy and hold crypto,” adding:
“Having BitPay manage that risk was an important factor in choosing BitPay Send. With BitPay Send, we are able to get our affiliates paid in a matter of minutes and not days.”
BitPay CEO Stephen Pair said the ease of sending global transactions via crypto is a big attraction for businesses:
“Traditional international payment methods are cumbersome, costly, and slow. With BitPay Send, companies can make mass payouts without having to buy, own or manage crypto and their recipients receive payments quicker and at a lower cost.”
BitPay is a U.S.-based company that launched in 2011. It processed almost 100,000 transactions per month in 2020, the majority of them being in Bitcoin (BTC). The firm is backed by multiple investment firms including Founders Fund, Virgin Group, Index Ventures, and Aquiline Technology Growth, having raised more than $70 million in funding.
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DeFi the odds: Total user numbers up 55% in just six weeks
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DeFi the odds: Total user numbers up 55% in just six weeks
While many decentralized finance tokens suffered heavy losses last month, prompting hastily written obituaries about the DeFi “bubble,” metrics measuring user activity saw sustained, sector-wide growth.
According to crypto market data aggregator Dune Analytics, the total number of unique DeFi user addresses is around 860,000, an increase of roughly 10 times over the past year. However, that figure is cumulative, and users might have more than one address.
Unique wallets engaging with DeFi over time: Dune Analytics
Despite many DeFi tokens shedding significant value last month, the sector’s user count increased in October by nearly 40%, from roughly 555,000 to 775,000.
A further 85,000 users joined DeFi during the first 11 days of November, increasing the number of users by 11% in less than two weeks. In total, that means DeFi user numbers have grown 55% from the start of October.
Lending protocol Compound and decentralized exchange Dydx were among DeFi’s strongest gainers, increasing their user bases over the past 30 days by 250% and 50%, respectively.
Compound’s absolute growth of 135,000 new users over the past month even exceeded the 110,000 attracted by leading DEX Uniswap.
Total users over time on Uniswap and Compound: Dune Analytics
The quantity of markets hosted on Uniswap is also quickly expanding, with the number of pairings on the platform increasing 34%, from roughly 16,200 to 21,700 over 30 days.
Dune estimates that nearly 81,000 users interacted with Uniswap over the past week — equal to 9.4% of all unique addresses in engaging with the entire DeFi sector.
Uniswap currently represents 63.6% of daily DEX trade, followed by Curve with 12.2%, SushiSwap with 8.64%, and 0x with 7%. As such, just four exchanges make up more than 91% of total DEX volume.
https://ift.tt/36tFX5r Altcoin News DeFi the odds: Total user numbers up 55% in just six weeks
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The Bitcoin price has only been higher than now for 12 days in its history
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The Bitcoin price has only been higher than now for 12 days in its history
The Bitcoin (BTC) price, which is currently sitting at $16,320, has only been at this level or higher for 12 days in the coin’s entire 4,332-day history, representing just 0.28% of the cryptocurrency’s life.
Crypto analytics platform Messari published data stating that the closing price had exceeded $16,320 only on 12 other days, 10 of which occurred from Dec. 7 to 20 in 2017, with the highest close occurring on Dec. 16 at $19,378. Any investor who bought at the all-time high of $20,089 would still be down 18.35%. In contrast, investors who bought at this cycle’s low of $3,126 on Dec. 15, 2018, would be up 424%.
Of the other top 10 coins, only Chainlink (LINK) comes remotely close to Bitcoin, with the coin sitting above the current price of $12.70 for 2.7% of its life.
By contrast, the majority of altcoins are yet to enter proportionally rare price ranges. Ether’s (ETH) current price of $464 has been exceeded 201 days in the past, representing more than 10% of the entire 1,933 days since the Ethereum network went live.
XRP, Bitcoin Cash (BCH), Litecoin (LTC), Binance Coin (BNB), Polkadot (DOT) and Cardano’s ADA prices all vary between 9.7% and above 30%. BCH exceeds all other coins sitting above the current price of $258 for at least one-third of its life.
Bitcoin’s strong rise past $16,000 has also seen record volumes recently. With more than $5.5 billion in Bitcoin trading volume recorded on Nov. 5, only nine days have seen stronger volume in Bitcoin’s history.
Compared to this day in previous years, investors have seen profits of 88%, 2,275%, 4,326% and a staggering 5,833,991% for the years of 2019, 2016, 2013 and 2010, respectively.
In other words, investing $1 into Bitcoin on November 13, 2010, would have increased to $58,339 today.
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Bitcoin futures and options suggest that a major BTC price move is looming
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Bitcoin futures and options suggest that a major BTC price move is looming
Bitcoin (BTC) has been highly volatile in recent weeks, rallying above $16,000 for the first time in three years. But the futures market’s open interest indicates that a large volatility spike is likely very close.
The term “open interest” refers to the total sum of contracts that are actively open in the futures market. If the open interest is high, it means there is a high number of traders betting on Bitcoin price action.

Bitcoin futures aggregated open interest. Source: Skew
Currently, as of Nov. 13, Bitazu Capital founding partner Mohit Sorout pointed out that the open interest of Bitcoin futures is at an all-time high. This means that the chances of heightened volatility in the near term should not come as a surprise.
Sorout said that the “liquidation fest” has not started, referring to Bitcoin’s tendency to see cascading liquidations following large price movements. He said:
“BTC futures and perpetuals aggregated Open Interest has made a new all time high today Liquidation fest hasn’t even started.”
Higher open interest may trigger major volatility
Bitcoin futures contracts typically offer high leverage of up to 125x. Traders can gain access to anywhere between 1x to 125x leverage depending on the platform.
When the leverage of a position is high, it means the liquidation price is closer to the entry price. As an example, if a trader places a 20x Bitcoin long at $16,300. With a 20x leverage, a trader can trade $200,000 with $10,000 worth of capital.
But the high leverage means that the liquidation price ranger is tighter. In the case of the 20x long at $16,300, if BTC drops below $15,600, the position would get liquidated.
If a position gets liquidated with a stop-loss in place, the trade would wipe out the entire position. Hence, if a $10,000 long ($200,000 position) on 20x gets liquidated, then $10,000 would be lost completely.
As such, when a major price movement occurs and the open interest of the futures market is high, Bitcoin tends to see massive volatility spikes.
Whether this trend would have a positive or a negative impact on Bitcoin’s near-term price cycle remains uncertain. If long contracts get squeezed, then the BTC price drops, and if short contracts get liquidated, it increases.
Across major futures exchanges, the average funding rate of Bitcoin is 0.01%. This means that the market is relatively balanced, and neither buyers nor sellers are overwhelming the market.
The options market is also heating up
The rest of the Bitcoin derivatives market is similarly seeing an increase in trading activity and open interest.
Deribit, the top cryptocurrency options exchange, shared Skew’s chart showing total Bitcoin options open interest also reached a record high in the past few days.

Total BTC options open interest. Source: Skew
The timing of the options market’s open interest soaring is noteworthy because theoretically, options open interest should peak toward the end of the month.
The monthly BTC options contracts expire on the fourth Friday of each month, and as such, open interest tends to spike in the last week of every month.
But, as Cointelegraph reported, data shows that bulls are not fazed by the upcoming $525 million options expiry. As long as BTC remains above $15,500, the large options expiry won’t likely have a major impact on the price.
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Belarus’ largest bank reportedly launches crypto exchange service
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Belarus’ largest bank reportedly launches crypto exchange service
Belarusbank, the largest financial institution in Belarus, is reportedly launching a cryptocurrency exchange service.
According to a Nov. 12 report by local news agency Prime Press, Belarusbank is rolling out a service allowing users to exchange cryptocurrency using a Visa payment card. As reported, the new service enables trading crypto against fiat currencies like the Belarusian ruble as well as the United States dollar and the euro.
Belarusbank executives reportedly said that the launch of the new crypto service comes in line with the company’s digital transformation program that was announced a few years ago.
The new service is reportedly available to citizens of Belarus and Russia. The bank is also planning to extend the list of countries supporting the service as well as the list of supported cryptocurrencies in the near future, the report notes.
According to the report, the new feature is a result of Belarusbank’s partnership with local crypto payment operator Whitebird. Prior to introducing the new service, the two companies reportedly partnered to jointly explore the crypto industry in 2018.
Belarusbank is apparently one of the first banks in Belarus pushing its own crypto service. The bank initially announced its plans to set up a crypto exchange in early 2019.
The development of crypto business in Belarus has been encouraged by local crypto-friendly regulation. As previously reported, Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko signed a draft decree legalizing the use of digital currencies in late 2017.
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Cointelegraph Consulting: How the US election may impact Bitcoin price
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Cointelegraph Consulting: How the US election may impact Bitcoin price
With Joe Biden poised to be the next president of the United States, Cointelegraph Consulting reflects on how traditional assets have responded to the election of a Democratic candidate. Historically, Democrats have been bullish for gold, as the common perception is that more unbacked money gets printed under Democratic leadership, further debasing the dollar. In the short term, Bitcoin (BTC) has already strongly benefited, increasing by 10% since election day so far.
The latest findings by Santiment, published in Cointelegraph Consulting’s biweekly newsletter, indicate that long-term Bitcoin holders’ average profits are sitting at a 14-month high, increasing the likelihood that they may exit the positions and take profit.
Market Value to Realised Value, or the MVRV ratio, is an indicator that tracks the average profit or loss of a certain group of holders in an effort to understand whether they are in a position to sell at a profit. Shortly after breaking $15,000 on Nov. 5, Bitcoin’s 30-day MVRV ratio — or the average ROI of all addresses that have acquired BTC in the past 30 days — shot up by 18.8%, indicating that short-term BTC holders were averaging close to 20% profit on their initial investment.
Other on-chain metrics show that Bitcoin whales have been accumulating BTC in the run-up to the latest push past $15,000. The collective balance of addresses holding 10 to 100 BTC hit a 6-month bottom on Sept. 20 before starting to bounce back, and has grown by 37,800 BTC since, implying renewed confidence in the asset.
Other news from around the legislative and enterprise blockchain world showed one of China’s largest banks launching a new blockchain-based bond that uses tokenized certificates. In the U.S., the Securities and Exchange Commission is having a record year with more than $1.26 billion collected from unregistered ICOs in 2020.
Read the full newsletter edition here to get the entire scoop, complete with detailed charts and images.
Cointelegraph’s Market Insights Newsletter shares our knowledge on the fundamentals that move the digital asset market. With market intelligence from one of the industry’s leading analytics providers, Santiment, the newsletter dives into the latest data on social media sentiment, on-chain metrics and derivatives.
We also review the industry’s most important news, including mergers and acquisitions, changes in the regulatory landscape, and enterprise blockchain integrations. Sign up now to be the first to receive these insights. All past editions of Market Insights are also available on Cointelegraph.com.
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Bitcoin price at $16K and beyond? Here are the bear and bull cases
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Bitcoin price at $16K and beyond? Here are the bear and bull cases
The price of Bitcoin (BTC) surpassed $16,000 with relative ease on Nov. 13 and has remained resilient above it. Analysts are divided on the short-term outlook on BTC because the momentum remains strong but there are concerns of an overheated rally. But there are numerous positive developments that could continue to sustain the uptrend of BTC.
Generally, the cryptocurrency market has seen an increase in trading activity across all types of exchanges. Spot, derivatives, and institutional markets have all seen a noticeable spike in demand from investors. Speaking to Cointelegraph, Denis Vinokourov, head of research at crypto exchange and broker Bequant, said the overall uptick in trading volume is positive:
“Looking at the traded volume on retail-focused crypto venues shows there has been a significant pick up in interest among these market participants. At the same time, though, the volumes and the open interest (OI) across the more regulated venues and, in particular the CME, has also been on a steady uptick.”
The substantial increase in the trading volume of the cryptocurrency market has been a critical catalyst for Bitcoin throughout the recent rally. On-chain market analysis platforms, such as CryptoQuant, have reported large deposits by whales. This means that high-net-worth investors have increasingly sold BTC in the past week as its price exceeded $16,000. Still, the dominant cryptocurrency was able to sustain its momentum and rise to as high as $16,480 on Nov. 13.
A large uptick in trading volume and consistent inflow of stablecoins into exchanges typically mean that the demand for Bitcoin is rising. As such, there is a strong possibility that the main impetus for the BTC rally above $16,000 was the high trading activity and newly emerging appetite for BTC from stablecoin inflows. Following the breakout above $16,000, analysts are generally bullish, particularly toward the medium-term trend of BTC. However, some remain cautious around the immediate effects.
The bull scenario for Bitcoin in the short term
The price of Bitcoin has only been above $16,300 for 12 days throughout its history. Looking at on-chain data, analysts at IntoTheBlock noted that there is little resistance between $16,300 and $18,750. If BTC rallies toward $18,750 in the near term, that would leave a minor gap until a new all-time high above $20,000.
In the near term, based on market orders and on-chain levels, the analysts said that the $15,170 area would likely emerge as the new support area. The firm found that 860,000 addresses bought 465,000 BTC near that level, which would mark it as critical support. This means that if BTC remains comfortably above $15,170, it would strengthen the foundation for the next bull run. But if it drops below it, there is a possibility for a deep pullback.
While the on-chain and technical factors favor an overextended Bitcoin rally, traders have also expressed concerns. Above $16,000, the road toward a new record high is considerably straightforward. As such, traders anticipate that sellers will try to suppress the price at around $16,000, causing a consolidation phase to emerge.
But technical analysts state that the momentum of Bitcoin might simply be too strong to see a sharp pullback. Kevin Svenson, a chartist at Cryptowatch, said that buyers with FOMO — the fear of missing out — might have taken over the market. The upside momentum of BTC is strengthening, especially as it continues to see a staircase rally.
Svenson noted that BTC could see a rejection in the future. Still, the analyst said that BTC might reach $17,000 to $18,000 before a pullback occurs: “#Bitcoin is just floating upward. FOMO buyers have taken over the market… keep in mind. We may be entering an area of ‘over exuberance’ … expect a rejection back down to crush FOMO buyers.”
Other traders have similarly said that the dip Bitcoin saw on Nov. 12 to sub-$15,500 might have been “the dip.” After reaching $15,965, BTC suddenly declined by nearly 4% to $15,440. After the pullback, BTC made a run back to $16,000 and then proceeded to cleanly break out of the dreaded resistance level. Based on this price action, a pseudonymous trader known as “Loma” said that a large pullback in the short term is likely. The trader noted: “Guess that was the dip. I don’t think it makes sense to test $15,800 area again.”
The near-term bear case
The short-term bearish scenario for Bitcoin still revolves around a positive market sentiment. Analysts still anticipate BTC to rally toward the end of the year, but in the immediate term, they expect a pullback because historically, BTC has seen corrections throughout prolonged bull cycles. In 2017, as an example, when BTC rallied toward $20,000, it regularly saw rejections of 20% to 30%.
Michaël van de Poppe, a full-time trader at the Amsterdam Stock Exchange, said that Bitcoin is in the “disbelief phase.” Short-sellers and skeptics are increasingly betting against BTC as it reaches toward its record high. Yet, Poppe pinpointed the likelihood of 20%–30% corrections during uptrends. If these pullbacks occur, they could present great opportunities, he explained:
“I do agree with the statement that we’re in the disbelief phase. It’s also hard to state something else when $BTC is just 20% away from a new all-time high. Regardless of that, a correction of 20–30% that massive opportunity to be buying relatively ‘cheap’ $BTC. Take it.”
Josh Olszewicz, a Bitcoin technical analyst, referred to the Ichimoku Cloud indicator to point out that BTC is well above the cloud. This indicates that BTC is likely overbought and has rallied far beyond its support levels on higher time frame charts. The analyst said the $13,200 level would remain an area of interest for buyers.
Short contract liquidations not occurring?
A variable for Bitcoin’s price trend in the foreseeable future is the unusually low amount of short-contract liquidations. For instance, when BTC surpassed $16,000 on Nov. 13, only around $13 million worth of short liquidations were recorded on Bitfinex and BitMEX. Binance Futures and other exchanges also saw relatively low short liquidations compared with previous cycles.
Vinokourov believes that the lackluster short liquidations could mean that the Bitcoin market is in a healthier position. It signifies that short squeezes are not the main catalyst for the BTC rally. Rather, genuine spot market demand and institutional appetite could be causing the price of Bitcoin to increase. When the market is less dependent on the futures market, which supports high leverage, BTC is less vulnerable to volatility spikes to the downside, as Vinokourov noted:
“Curiously, short liquidations have been absent and there is a sound reason for that — the total OI may be at a record high, but the surge higher is actually being driven by stablecoin margined futures, as opposed to margined Bitcoin. Because of the said stablecoin exposure, there is no exposure to Bitcoin and, as a result, the market is in a much healthier condition than it would have been if the movement into stablecoin margin products did not happen.”
The combination of Bitcoin’s declining dependence on the derivatives market, the clear breach of the $16,000 resistance level, and various on-chain data points that confirm $15,170 as an important support level for BTC raises the probability of a broader rally. At the same time, due to the historical tendencies of BTC to see large pullbacks even amid parabolic rallies, traders are preparing for potential sharp drops to buy the dip. Regardless, the medium-term prospect of BTC remains positive, especially heading into the year-end.
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Tezos upgrade reduces smart contract fees by 75% to attract DeFi
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Tezos upgrade reduces smart contract fees by 75% to attract DeFi
Top-20 crypto asset by market cap Tezos (XTZ) has successfully completed its latest upgrade, “Delphi,” which aims to reduce smart contract gas fees by 75% to attract decentralized finance (DeFi) developers to build on top of its blockchain.
Delphi was proposed on Sept. 3. It’s a joint undertaking from Nomadic Labs, Metastatic, and Gabriel Algour intended to “help individuals developing smart contracts on Tezos.”
According to a joint post from Delphi’s developers the upgrade is “crucial to enable novel applications on Tezos that target areas like DeFi, collectibles, and gaming.”
“The size and complexity of smart contracts is limited by gas constraints and so people attempting to build contracts with rich functionality have needed improvements to those constraints for some time.”
Tezos is a fourth-generation blockchain platform that utilizes proof-of-stake and facilitates smarts contracts and decentralized applications.
Tezos’ core value proposition is that it’s a “self-amending blockchain,” which formally utilizes on-chain mechanisms for proposing, testing, and activating protocol upgrades without requiring the network undergo a hard fork.
The Delphi upgrade included optimizations to gas computation, including a reduction in the base cost of manager operations from 10,000 to 1,000 gas units, and implementation of new cost models for type checking and IOs.
With the update, Tezos blocks can now include three-and-a-half times more simple XTZ transactions and four times more multi-asset transfers, while contracts can perform 10 times as many internal calls as was possible prior to Delphi’s implementation.
Delphi also reduces Tezos storage costs by a factor of four, from 1 XTZ to 0.25 XTZ per kilobyte. XTZ is currently trading for $2.06 each.
“The benefits will be most visible in large and complex contracts involving multiple calls to other contracts and substantial computation.”
Further upgrades building on Delphi’s new features are expected to be proposed by Nomadic Labs before early December.
Tezos conducted an initial coin offering in July 2017 — raising $232 million in what was then the largest ICO to-date — before launching its mainnet in beta one year later.
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