alonsonfl-blog

[alonsonfl-blog]

Thank You, Gronk

Thank you, Gronk. Thank you for putting us in position to punch it in and win our sixth Super Bowl. Thank you for the massive conversions in Kansas City two weeks earlier. Thank you for your heroic efforts in losing efforts in Denver and against the Eagles. Thank you for coming back from your malady of injuries in 2013 and making Tom Brady look like Tom Brady again (your words, not mine) when we were on to Cincinnati in 2014.

Thank you for emasculating the Steelers in 2017… and 2016… and 2015… and 2013… and 2010… yeesh. Poor Mike Tomlin.

Thank you for every single Gronk spike (there were 91, 79 in the regular season and 12 in the playoffs). Thank you for scoring 0.69 touchdowns per game in the regular season (I had to sneak that in there somewhere).

But your work on the field speaks for itself. You were an absolute joy to watch every Sunday for the past nine years, but what makes you special is everything you did when you were off the field.

I remember when you got drafted and started to jump around the stage with your brothers like a lunatic. I was mad the Patriots hadn’t been able to get their hands on Jermaine Gresham the night beforehand, and that they had to settle for some special teamer named Devin McCourty instead (bypassing superstar pass rusher Sergio Kindle… Bill the GM is KILLING Bill the Head Coach).

But hey, I thought, at least they had this guy at tight end. He seemed like he would be fun to root for. And boy, was he. The reason why? He never stopped being the kid who jumped around with his brothers after he got drafted.

You always played the game with an unmatched love and exuberance, but it went beyond that. You always had a smile on your face. You never stopped dancing. Even when you were hurt and had just lost in your first Super Bowl appearance, you still went out and partied. Not many people took that all that well. Hell, I didn’t take it well. Does Gronk even care about winning? Why’s he partying if he just lost, then? (In my defense, I was 12).

Looking back on it now, I think everyone can take a lesson from that hobbled night on the field and shirtless night in the club in Indianapolis. No matter how bleak things may look, no matter how shitty a situation may be, never stop being positive. Never stop having fun, if that’s what you want to do for a bit. Never stop being you.

A Super Bowl loss. Getting called to the principal’s office. Four forearm surgeries. Puberty. A torn ACL after fighting back from four forearm surgeries. A shitty love life. A back surgery. A rejection from a university. A bulging disc and Achilles after an offseason of trade rumors. A shitty love life (again!). It can all feel like the end of the world, but ultimately, you’re gonna have to wake up the next day, and you’ll be faced with a choice: am I gonna go to a dark place, or am I gonna fight, with a smile on my mouth, no matter how hard it is in the moment?

I forgot to thank you for something at the beginning of the letter (or whatever this is): thank you for always making me and millions of others smile, even in situations where it would probably have been easier to never leave your bed.

I idolize some players because I can see myself being them. Julian Edelman, for example. No, I won’t ever have the God-given ability to be Julian Edelman on any kind of football field (or Braxton Berrios, for that matter), but I can see myself being some version of Julian Edelman. Never the biggest, never the strongest, never the most talented. But works his ass off and plays (lives?) with a passion that I’ve never seen anyone match. Ditto Tom Brady. I can see myself outworking the room and making the most of what I have to work with.

The funny thing is, you are the complete opposite. You were the biggest, strongest, most talented, and greatest tight end anyone who’s ever watched you has ever seen. Anyone trying to replicate you was always gonna fall short. Anyone who thought it was possible was delusional.

But what you taught us was that we shouldn’t try to be anyone else. I never tried to be Rob Gronkowski, or Julian Edelman or Tom Brady for that matter, because you taught me that it was always alright to be me. And that’s what I’ll always be the most grateful for, beyond everything you did on the field.

I grew up with you during the past nine years, and there was no one better to grow up with. Enjoy retirement, you’re gonna kill it. Thank you, Gronk.

[alonsonfl-blog]

Steeler Superiority

The Pittsburgh Steelers are a superior organization to the New England Patriots. First, let’s look at the Super Bowls; Pittsburgh has 6 trophies. The Patriots have 5 (even though they’ve advanced to their 13th AFC Championship Game in Tom Brady’s 17 full seasons as a starter and have a chance to win their 6th Super Bowl in less than two decades). The Steelers have won their Super Bowls over a prolonged timeframe; most of their fans under the age of 40 barely remember or weren’t alive for four of their championships. The Patriots? Well, they’ve won all of their Super Bowls this century; that may seem like a dominant, unparalleled run, but to me it’s just pretty inconsiderate to their more elderly fans.

Furthermore, let’s take a look at how the teams handle their players through the scope of one player in particular: Antonio Brown. The Steelers stuck by Brown, steadfast in their belief that despite the fact that he ghosted the coaching staff and *alleged* rapist Ben Roethlisberger three times during the regular season. The Patriots? Bill Belichick? Well, they would have traded his ass at the first sign of trouble (see: Randy Moss, 2010). That team first mentality may seem brilliant to some, but to me it reeks of arrogance and disloyalty, something the Steelers would never be (especially to a head coach who has won a grand total of three playoff games with a consistently loaded roster since being undressed by Aaron Rodgers in Super Bowl XLV).

Finally, let’s move on to cheating; simply put, one of these organizations does it better than the other, and that organization, my compadres, is the Pittsburgh Steelers. Why, you ask? Well, let’s harken back to the old saying: if a tree falls in the woods and no one hears it, does it make a sound? In other words, the Steelers cheat, but no one seems to *hear* it. They have been accused of deflating footballs twice as many times as the Patriots in the past decade, and no one seems to give a shit. This is simply uncanny! Furthermore, while their head coach did not ignore a memo from the league office to stop filming the opposition’s signals *from the sidelines* and move the filming to the press box in 2006 (google it, seriously. The Anderson Memo), their head coach did something else in plain sight: he tried to trip his bitter rival’s kick returner, Jacoby Jones, on national television back in 2013. Seriously, this happened! And no one cares! Oh, and they misrepresented Le’Veon Bell’s (remember him) groin injury on their injury report before an AFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME (which they lost 36-17 to... the Patriots)... and no one cared. The Seahawks lost a 2nd round pick for the same infraction! When the Patriots cheat, they lose draft picks (two first rounders in a decade). When the Steelers cheat,...did it make a sound? That is the mark of a superior organization. By the way, said head coach has won 3 playoff games with a top tier quarterback since attempting to trip a rival player. Three! And he’s still employed! Super Bowls from when mom and dad were still in diapers, loyalty, success cheating, and just plain class. Those are your Pittsburgh Steelers.

Now, to a more pressing matter: Thomas Edward Patrick Brady. Thomas (or “Tom”) has been a full time starter for 17 years. During that time, he has lost three Super Bowls, four AFC Championship Games, torn one ACL, thrown 171 interceptions in the regular season, spent zero days in an in-patient rehabilitation facility, and has never been accused of any type of relationship violence [unless you read Seth Wickersham’s story on the collapse of the Patriots dynasty; in that case, you would know that Mr. Brady (known by some as the “GOAT”) once raised his voice at Josh McDaniels; when is someone gonna get control of this guy, seriously? Since Wickersham’s story, the Patriots have appeared in a Super Bowl and are about to appear in a game that could send them to another, by the way. Quite a collapse]. For what it’s worth, “the GOAT” has also been accused of raping a woman zero times during his tenure as the Patriots starting quarterback, abysmal numbers when compared to the starting quarterbacks in the AFC North. Nevertheless, it’s time we compare Mr. Brady’s resumé to one of the great quarterbacks of his era, a player who does not get his deserved respect in the “GOAT” discussion: Johnny Manziel. During his time in the NFL, Manziel lost zero Super Bowls, zero AFC Championship Games, threw 164 LESS interceptions than Mr. Brady, was accused of relationship violence multiple times, and checked into rehab twice. These numbers dwarf Tom Brady’s numbers, and it isn’t even close. Want to take a closer look? Manziel hosts one podcast. Brady hosts none. Manziel actually won a Heisman Trophy. Brady, well, he didn’t. His head coach at Michigan benched him for Drew Henson. You think Johnny Fucking Football would’ve gotten benched foe Drew Henson? Please. Want more? Johnny was a first round pick (22nd overall). Tom Brady? He was a sixth round pick (199th overall). That alone should be proof that Manziel was and is more talented than Brady, and that Brady was the product of his system/surroundings. Why? Because NFL executives never make mistakes on a player’s ability coming out of college. Not even when they take Arrelious Benn (I swear, that’s not a fake name) 156 spots ahead of Antonio Brown in 2010 ... wait what?!? By the way, Johnny Manziel has never been accused of outright rape either. So there’s a case to be made for another AFC North quarterback as the GOAT, but that’s a different topic for another dissertation.

Also, the Steelers are definitely a better football team than the Patriots. That much is clear, as they beat the Patriots 17-10 in week 15 of this season. Sure, the Steelers hadn’t beaten the Patriots since 2011 before that game, the Patriots have since advanced to the AFC Championship Game (for the eighth straight year), and the Steelers have since advanced to Cancun and Antonio Brown trade talks, but Joe Haden will always have “The Pick”.

That is all. #Boomin

[alonsonfl-blog]

Pats-Dolphins: What The Fuck Just Happened?

The Patriots have clinched their 10th consecutive AFC East title. This is unprecedented, man. We are so fortunate to be fans of this team, in this er- what the fuck just happened?

Let’s get this out of the way: the Patriots were the better team in Hard Rock Stadium. They dropped 33 points, and it easily could have been more. But that’s been the story of the 2018 Patriots.

They dropped 38 on Indy, but they let them linger and it probably should have been closer to 50.

They dropped 43 on Kansas City, but they left points on the field when they got into Kansas City territory (Stephen Gostkowski kicked six field goals).

They dropped 38 on Chicago, in Chicago, without Gronk, and there was Tom Brady at the podium, saying that it should have been closer to 50.

Even against the Bills, when the offense struggled, they moved the ball more than their output (18 points before a Devin McCourty pick-six) would have indicated.

At some point, this was going to bite them in the ass. The team has shown all season through their wins in games with far-from-ideal execution that it has a relatively large margin for error. But you can’t keep producing results so far below potential and expect to keep getting away with it. And today, they finally didn’t.

Stephen Gostkowski missed an extra point. Stephon Gilmore dropped a pick-six. Josh McDaniels peed down his leg in a two minute drill to end the first half for the third consecutive game. Tom Brady missed Chris Hogan in the end zone and proceeded to take a sack with nine seconds left in the first half. Gostkowski missed a field goal. Rob Gronkowski was the last line of defense on the final play of regulation with the Dolphins on their own 31 yard line (wait what?).

They made the plays to get in position to win the game and not make it close. And when it came time to execute, they didn’t, just like they haven’t all season. They let the Dolphins hang around, just like they let the Colts, Bears, Bills, and Jets hang around in weeks past. Hell, even the Vikings game was 10-10 at one point late in the third quarter when it should have been closer to 27-10.

It had almost come back to bite them in the ass once, against the Bears, when Kevin White was stopped at the one yard line on a Hail Mary. Today, it finally did. The dam broke. The Patriots lost a game they had no business losing… or maybe they had no business winning with all of their mistakes? I don’t even know at this point.

What I do know is that this is the most shocking loss of the Belichick era. No, not in terms of “upset!” or in terms of “wow, they laid an egg against an inferior team.” This is the most shocking loss I can remember for the Patriots in terms of “what the fuck just happened?” and it’s not even close. I repeat, Rob Gronkowski was the last line of defense on a 69 yard, game ending lateral play. What the fuck just happened?!?!

As frustrating as the loss was, the Patriots can actually take some positives away from this game.

Tom Brady played like the greatest quarterback of all time today. It was probably his best game of the season. In stark contrast to last year, he’s playing his best after Thanksgiving.

Josh Gordon might be the best wide receiver Brady has had since Prime Moss. Wait until they unleash Playoff Gordon. There is absolutely another level to get to with him.

Julian Edelman is still the toughest son of a bitch in the NFL. He’s a stud and more importantly he’s still a crazy person. There’s no receiver I’d rather have in a big spot.

Finally, and maybe most importantly, this was the best Gronk has looked since week one (but damn, he takes the biggest hits I’ve ever seen anyone take. It’s horrifying.). This game could do wonders for his confidence.

Those are the main positives. There are more; James White was barely used today. They’re making a concerted effort to keep him fresh. The Patriots are saving the Full Scalpel Offense (aka the Spread and Shred) for the playoffs. Count on it. Today was all the proof you need that this team can score with anyone.

Ultimately, none of this matters if this team doesn’t have a Championship DNA. Let’s be honest, they haven’t faced any real adversity yet. Most people knew Jacksonville and Detroit could be chalked up to personnel; of course they suck without Edelman and Gordon in the lineup. Some guys have been in and out of the lineup, sure. Tennessee? Please. They laid their annual egg and it happened to be in Tennessee. Big whoop.

But now? This is adversity. This is halftime of the 2014 Kansas City game (“they’re just not good anymore!”). This is Brady’s suspension in 2016. This is Gronk’s injury in 2016. This is some real shit. This is the most heartbreaking, inexplicable, WTF regular season loss the Patriots have had in the Belichick Era.

And it’s when we find out whether or not this team has that Championship DNA.

There are two ways the team can go. They can galvanize the troops, like they did after Kansas City and Green Bay in 2014, when they roared back against Cincinnati and San Diego. Like they did during Brady’s suspension. Like they did after Gronk’s 2016 back injury sent him to IR. The 2014 and 2016 teams didn’t lose a meaningful game after those crushing losses. Those seasons ended on duckboats.

They could also go the way of 2015, the way of Harper’s Muff (it’s a seminal moment, you’re fucking right it’s a proper noun). That team could never dig itself out of the hole created by Harper’s Muff. It lost 3 of its next 5 regular season games to non-playoff teams and never rediscovered its mojo.

So, this is the first dose of adversity for the 2018 Patriots. The type of nut up, show me what you got adversity that has brought the team together for two title runs in the last half decade, and also the type of adversity that crippled maybe the best Patriots team of the past half decade.

Weirdly, last year’s team never faced that adversity, that critical point in the regular season. I could never get a read on their mental toughness. Maybe that was a sign.

We’re going to find out what this team is made of in Pittsburgh. Can they win on the road? Can they respond in the face of adversity? Do they have that Championship DNA?

Well, now they play the best team they’ve played all season on the road, after the most bitter regular season defeat they’ve suffered in two decades. I’m not gonna lie, I’m nervous. It could go one of two ways, and if it goes the wrong way, who knows how many more championship opportunities they have left in this unbelievable era of unprecedented dominance.

I can’t wait for Sunday. Let’s see what they’ve got. #LFG

[alonsonfl-blog]

2018 Patriots 53 Man Roster Projection 2.0

Here is my second 53 man roster projection for the 2018 Patriots. I’ll have more out after preseason games. Locks are in bold. Suspended, PUP, and IR players are at the bottom. Have at it:

QB (2): Tom Brady, Brian Hoyer No questions about the top two. Brady got off to a bit of a rusty start in camp, but seems back to his normal self. Hoyer's experience in the system makes him the clearcut backup. Etling has been inconsistent at best, and hasn't shown enough for the team to consider keeping three quarterbacks. A year on the practice squad would be ideal for him. RB (5): Rex Burkhead, James White, Sony Michel, Jeremy Hill, Brandon Bolden I've expected the team to keep four backs throughout the offseason, but Michel's injury opens up a spot for another of Jeremy Hill, Brandon Bolden, and Mike Gillislee. Burkhead, White, and Michel are locks, with the expectation that Burkhead will split some of the early down responsibilities with Hill as Michel gets his legs back under him. Depending on Michel's return timetable, the team could keep four backs and add a developmental player at linebacker (Ja'Whaun Bentley) or edge defender (Eric Lee, Keionta Davis, Harvey Langi)... or, of course, make a trade (John Simon?). WR (6): Chris Hogan, Kenny Britt, Phillip Dorsett, Cordarrelle Patterson, Eric Decker, Matthew Slater This is the worst wide receiver group the team has had going into week one since 2013, and its floor might be lower than that (which is scary). However, with the week five return of Edelman and projected growth in the system for Britt and Dorsett, the group's upside might rival the 2016 Edelman/Hogan/Amendola/Mitchell outfit, especially with Rob Gronkowski as the top tight end over Martellus Bennett. Britt is my breakout guy for the 2018 Patriots. He's still young (29) even though it feels like he's been around forever, and just had over 1,000 yards with Bad Case Keenum and Rookie Jared Goff throwing to him on the 2016 "We're Not Fucking Going 7-9" Rams. Check out my case for Britt here. Dorsett's side sessions with Brady and glowing praise from coaches and teammates alike, coupled with his flashes of upside in 2017 lead me to believe he has real upside as the fourth receiver with Edelman back after September. He just looks so smooth... admittedly, most of this is theoretical/projection. I only include Decker because of Edelman's suspension and his reported $1.9M contract. I doubt he'll be on the team if the other receivers are healthy after week 5. He really struggled creating separation last year. If I had to present a case for him: he was better late in the season and into the playoffs, has some background in the system, and was coming off major hip and shoulder surgery last year. Also, his wife calls him "Big Dick Decker" ... so there's that. I give Patterson almost no shot to carve out a role for himself as a receiver through anything more than reverse/bubble screen gadgetry. If he does, based on his past with learning playbooks, this team is probably in trouble. FB (1): James Develin Overlooked as a crucial component of the offense. Remember the Patriots playing Shaq Mason at fullback at times in 2015? TE (3): Rob Gronkowski, Jacob Hollister, Dwayne Allen No questions here beyond the Patriots maybe asking Allen to restructure his contract, or releasing him with the hope of bringing him back at a salary more in line with his role and production. Gronk will serve as the top tight end, and I think both Hollister and Allen will play a role as tight ends 2a and 2b. Think of Allen as Michael Williams (except he makes $5M... ugh) and Hollister as a rich man's Tim Wright, with upside to become Gronkowski's second best post-Hernandez sidekick (miss you, Marty). OL (9): Trent Brown, Joe Thuney, David Andrews, Shaq Mason, Marcus Cannon, Isaiah Wynn, LaAdrian Waddle, Cole Croston, Ted Karras I count the top seven players on the list as locks, leaving competition for one, maybe two offensive line spots. I give those to the incumbents in Croston and Karras because (a) none of the veterans (Bowanko, John, Schwenke, Tobin) the team brought in have separated themselves and (b) experience and trust in the system. I see some people cutting Croston in projections, and while I understand it, I think the team carrying him on the roster for all of last year means they really like him.

I’ve pushed for the team to try Wynn at left guard as a way to simply play their five best linemen, but based on the early returns from camp, it doesn’t seem like the team is strongly considering it at this point. Too bad. I think Wynn is a lot better than Thuney, and a Wynn-Andrews-Mason interior would absolutely maul people with Brown and Cannon flanking.

Trent Brown was such a masterstroke trade by Belichick. From everything we’ve heard, he looks like the team’s best lineman. I’ll bet he upgrades on Solder, at 20% of the cap hit. If the marriage continues to benefit both sides into the season, I think they make a push to extend him similarly to Marcus Cannon in 2016. The team continues to bring in veterans on the interior of the offensive line, which coupled with the depth at that spot that already existed on the roster leads me to the conclusion that Shaq Mason is the WTF Trade Candidate for this year's training camp. I won't predict it, but I had to get it out there. ED (4): Trey Flowers, Deatrich Wise, Adrian Clayborn, Derek Rivers No surprises here. These four guys are locks, and the team will try to make this its four man edge defender rotation. With Wise's training camp jump, Flowers and Clayborn's proven production, and Belichick's praise for Rivers (coupled with his significant talent), I'm optimistic it'll work. Eric Lee, Harvey Langi, or Keionta Davis could sneak on, though Davis has been playing inside at times during practice. If John Simon becomes available I would think the Patriots inquire. Simon is the way-too-obvious trade or cutdown target for the Patriots this preseason. DT (4): Danny Shelton, Lawrence Guy, Malcom Brown, Vincent Valentine Shelton, Guy, and Brown are established as the top rotation, with Shelton the clear top dog and Guy and Brown as solid 2a/2b rotational pieces. All three will ideally wind up playing a similar number of snaps. I wouldn't read much into Brown being "demoted" to the second unit. Valentine makes the team over Adam Butler, a meh situational pass rusher with no value on early downs and therefore very little depth value on the team. Valentine is a great fill in option as a big defensive tackle if one of Shelton, Guy, or Brown get nicked. If Shaq Mason was a possible WTF Trade Candidate, Malcom Brown may be one on a smaller scale, due to the presence of Valentine, Butler's proven ability to be a replacement level situational pass rusher, and Brown's expiring contract. John Atkins has also opened a couple of eyes during camp. The possible spot for a Brown trade: Detroit, who might be looking at starting Ricky Jean Francois at defensive tackle. Who knows, maybe they throw in Golden Tate, whose contract also expires after this season! (yes, I know they won't throw in Golden Tate. Just let me have my fun)... LB (6): Dont'a Hightower, Kyle Van Noy, Marquis Flowers, Brandon King, Elandon Roberts, Christian Sam The top five are either locks or very close to it, especially based on Elandon Roberts' heavy usage during camp (usage I expect to fizzle significantly come September). Hightower and Van Noy are the horses, with Roberts and Flowers playing situationally, and Sam developing behind the scenes. If either one of Hightower or Van Noy goes down, the Patriots have experience mixing and matching to fill in their roles, but against the best offenses and offensive minds, they're in trouble. Get those two to January. Roberts was atrocious last year, but he has experience in the system and Belichick apparently trusts him. With the prevalence of big nickel as a base defense, though, I don't think his thumper linebacker role will come into play much with Hightower and Van Noy healthy. I do expect Marquis Flowers to carve out a role for himself on passing downs, moving Hightower to the edge, bumping Trey Flowers inside, and letting Brian Flores get creative with pass rush looks. Typing that sent a wonderful chill down my spine. Ja'Whaun Bentlely was the victim of Michel's injury forcing me to keep five running backs, as he's the last guy out in this projection. I don't exactly weep for the team not being able to keep two complete negatives on passing plays at linebacker, though. Sam has been playing over him in practice. CB (6): Stephon Gilmore, Eric Rowe, Duke Dawson, Jason McCourty, JC Jackson, Ryan Lewis I've been banging the "keep six corners" drum for months, and Lewis and Jackson's strong camps have only added fuel to the fire. Gilmore and Rowe will start. The team should try to extend Rowe at some point, similar to what they did with Van Noy last year. Dawson has been seeing top slot reps, though the team experimented with McCourty outside and Rowe in the slot during the week. I like that corner trio more in a vacuum, though it may lack shiftiness against certain receiver types. I think the slot will vacillate based on matchups. McCourty could be in trouble without a strong preseason, as Jackson and Lewis carry more long term upside and the team saves almost $3M by cutting him before the season. McCourty was great last year, though, and cutting him would leave the team with unproven depth behind Gilmore and Rowe on the outside. Jackson and Lewis emerging allows Jonathan Jones to stay on PUP and come back fully ready to go during the season. With no corner as a lock to make the team beyond Gilmore and Dawson signed beyond this year, Jackson and Lewis making the team would allow for more continuity at the position in 2019. The team should go to great lengths to avoid adding their names to the list of young corners that got away (Darryl Roberts, Justin Coleman, Cre'Von LeBlanc, Troy Hill, Rashaan Melvin, Kenny Moore). S (4): Devin McCourty, Patrick Chung, Duron Harmon, Eddie Pleasant The top trio stays the top trio, and I try to prepare myself for seeing Duron Harmon wear 21. I don't buy that he'll usurp Chung as the safety alongside McCourty, but stranger things have happened.

Goodbye, Jordan Richards. Eddie Pleasant takes the mantle of dime safety/core special teamer from Richards, with proven competence in the role, and allows Nate Ebner to fully recover from his ACL tear by starting the season on the PUP list. Duke Dawson, Ryan Lewis, and JC Jackson's value as special teamers shouldn't be overlooked as it relates to the safety/special teams mix, either. That is a major part of what allows the team to keep ten DBs while not being forced to keep five safeties. Special Teams (3): Stephen Gostkowski, Joe Cardona, Ryan Allen The triumvirate returns for another season. No questions on Gostkowski or Cardona, but Allen's battle with Corey Bojorquez in the preseason bears watching. Bojorquez has a monster leg.

Suspended: Julian Edelman

PUP: Nate Ebner, Jonathan Jones, Cyrus Jones

IR: Malcolm Mitchell

[alonsonfl-blog]

The Roster: Pre Camp 53 Projection

QB(2): Tom Brady, Brian Hoyer

RB(4)- Rex Burkhead, James White, Sony Michel, Jeremy Hill

WR(6)- Chris Hogan, Kenny Britt, Jordan Matthews, Cordarrelle Patterson, Phillip Dorsett, Matt Slater

TE(4)- Rob Gronkowski, James Develin, Jacob Hollister, Troy Niklas

OL(9)- Trent Brown, Isaiah Wynn, David Andrews, Shaq Mason, Marcus Cannon, LaAdrian Waddle, Joe Thuney, Cole Croston, Luke Bowanko

ED(4)- Trey Flowers, Adrian Clayborn, Deatrich Wise, Derek Rivers

DT(4)- Danny Shelton, Malcom Brown, Lawrence Guy, Vincent Valentine

LB(7)- Dont'a Hightower, Kyle Van Noy, Marquis Flowers, Elandon Roberts, JaWhaun Bentley, Christian Sam, Brandon King

CB(6)- Stephon Gilmore, Eric Rowe, Jason McCourty, Duke Dawson, Jonathan Jones, JC Jackson

S(4)- Devin McCourty, Patrick Chung, Duron Harmon, Nate Ebner

ST(3)- Stephen Gostkowski, Ryan Allen, Joe Cardona

[alonsonfl-blog]

Here is another case for Kenny Britt: look at him. Jesus.

[alonsonfl-blog]

The Case For Kenny Britt

The Financial Times Lexicon defines a distressed asset as “an asset that is put on sale, usually at a cheap price, because its owner is forced to sell it.” To the seller, the sale of a distressed asset represents a “cut your losses” moment, where one opts to get what it can for the asset.

In the NFL, we see transactions with distressed assets on an almost weekly basis; Team X trades Player A to Team Y so as to not have to cut  Player A and lose him for nothing. This type of transaction naturally yields most of the power to the buyer, or Team Y in the scenario; as Team X is in “get what you can” mode, Team Y has the opportunity offer below market value for Player A. A perfect example of the scenario: the trade between the Browns and Patriots involving Jason McCourty. As Cleveland was prepared to cut the player, they were forced to sell at a lower price; this gave the Patriots the opportunity to acquire a potential starting cornerback for a pick-swap in the late-6th/early-7th rounds.

The teams that recognize opportunities in acquiring distressed assets in the NFL are generally those that have success (see: the Patriots and Eagles have made the most trades involving players in the NFL since 2010). The teams forced to trade away their distressed assets typically stay bad, seeing as their player assets have lost value for a reason, and teams don’t get much in return for whatever investment they made in the player to invest in another. The Browns (sorry, Cleveland) fit this description to a T; one must only look at recent trades involving Barkevious Mingo, DeShone Kizer, Jamar Taylor, and the aforementioned McCourty trade to New England. However, there is another player the Browns severed ties with, one who wasn’t traded, who may present the greatest opportunity for success to his new team: Kenny Britt.

To the Cleveland Browns, Kenny Britt was an example of the law of diminishing returns. When Browns GM John Dorsey took control of the team on December 8, 2017, he determined that the benefits added by Britt to the Browns were less than the amount of energy Cleveland invested by merely employing Britt. This led to the decision to cut him one year into a 4-year, $32 million contract, and eat $10.5 million in dead money. To Cleveland, the move to cut Britt was made necessary by Dorsey’s desire to establish a new culture in Cleveland, and Britt’s plain-to-see lack of effort coupled with his alleged horrific attitude and toxic influence on the Browns locker room. To the rest of the NFL, this was an opportunity.

Kenny Britt is good at football. This may not have been apparent to the casual fan watching a Browns game last season, but the proof is in the pudding. Britt’s college production (17.8 college YPR), coupled with his athletic (74th percentile Speed Score; 72nd percentile burst score) and analytical profile (71st percentile College Dominator; 90th percentile Breakout Age) led to him being drafted in the first round (30th overall) by the Tennessee Titans in the 2009 draft. In layman’s terms: Britt is 6’3, 215 pounds, an explosive athlete who dominated the competition at a young age in college. The Football Gods don’t make many humans like this. In his second season in the NFL, Britt had a seven catch, 225 yard, three touchdown game against the Philadelphia Eagles in which he was benched for the first three series. Britt tore his ACL in the third game of the 2011 season; through three games, he had 17 catches, 289 yards, and three touchdowns. Kenny Britt is good at football.

The knee issues lingered throughout the 2012 season, and a poor relationship with the Titans doomed his 2013 season, but Britt’s tantalizing potential has always been apparent, and never more so than in 2016. On a team quarterbacked by the yet-untapped Case Keenum and Jared Goff, possessing no semblance of a run game (Todd Gurley averaged 3.2 yards per carry two years ago… remember that??), coached by Jeff Fisher, that ranked last in total offense, Britt caught 68 passes for 1,002 yards and five touchdowns. On third downs, he caught 65% of his targets. On the worst offense in the NFL -  one with no quarterback, running game, or other credible receiving threats - Kenny Britt (possibly motivated by the fact his contract was up after the season) put up numbers comparable to Brandin Cooks, coupled with third down numbers that dwarf anything Cooks has ever come close to. This served as yet another reminder to the NFL world: Kenny Britt is GOOD at football.

Britt’s 2016 season earned him his aforementioned 4-year, $32 million contract in Cleveland, a contract he did not last even a full year into, which brings us to the NFL’s opportunity. Britt cleared waivers after Cleveland’s decision to cut him, as teams were (rightfully) unwilling to let the Browns off the hook and pay the remaining balance of his contract. This made Britt free to sign with any team, and he had no doubt where he wanted to play: New England. Britt signed a dirt cheap two-year contract with New England that carries him through the end of the 2018 season (still only his age-30 season, even though it feels like he’s been around forever). Like they did with Mingo and McCourty and Danny Shelton and Jabaal Sheard and Dion Lewis (man, poor Cleveland. At least they drafted Baker Mayfield.), New England poached Cleveland’s distressed asset. And there are reasons to believe he can be the next in a long line of Browns castoffs to be successful in New England that go beyond “Kenny Britt is good at football.”

Before landing in New England, Kenny Britt had played under three NFL head coaches: Jeff Fisher, Mike Munchak, and Hue Jackson. Kenny Britt now plays for Bill Belichick. Before landing in New England, Kenny Britt played with 13(!!!) quarterbacks: Kerry Collins, Vince Young, Rusty Smith, Matt Hasselbeck, Jake Locker, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Austin Davis, Shaun Hill, Nick Foles, Case Keenum, Jared Goff (the preceding three before their exorcisms), DeShone Kizer, and Kevin Hogan. His team’s quarterback is now Tom Brady. I understand that Britt has had some attitude concerns during his time in the NFL, but look at those lists. I mean… Rusty Smith. Whose attitude would be unaffected by that?

To put it simply, Britt’s immense talents have been wasted in a career marred by inept coaching and quarterback play. He chased the money after an under-the-radar awesome season for the 2016 “We’re not fucking going 7-9” LA Rams, was miserable in Cleveland, and forced his way to New England in order to play for the greatest coach and with the greatest quarterback in NFL History. He is also going to be thirty, and is likely playing for his last contract this year. His attitude and work ethic should not be an issue; far from it. And by all indications, Britt was great in the locker room after getting to New England.

With his career to this point marked by sky-high expectations and opportunity capped by miserable surroundings, Kenny Britt enters his first offseason as a Patriot with mostly nonexistent expectations as yet another distressed asset acquired off the scrap-heap from the sad-sack Browns and massive opportunity amplified by his pristine surroundings. And, it bears repeating: he’s playing for his last contract. The last two times Britt played for a contract, he earned a 2-year, $9.15 million contract from the Rams, and the infamous 4-year, $32 million contract from the Browns. If that doesn’t quell concerns about his attitude, Britt is now surrounded by fellow Rutgers alumni Devin and Jason McCourty in a program similar to that of Greg Schiano, which added stability to his life at Rutgers (also, the opposite of a Hue Jackson program). As cliché as it sounds, Britt has everything to gain and nothing to lose in playing for New England, and New England has everything to gain and nothing to lose in employing Britt.

The Patriots traded away Brandin Cooks and lost Danny Amendola to free agency in the offseason, Tom Brady’s top two wide receivers (as Chris Hogan was injured for half the season) last year. One of the top spots is tentatively expected to be filled by Julian Edelman, one of Brady’s all-time favorite targets, who was lost for the 2017 season with a torn ACL. Most expect Hogan to fill the number-two wide receiver spot, but most don’t ask the question: is Chris Hogan better than Kenny Britt? Hogan is actually older than Britt, and had less than 1,000 career receiving yards before joining New England. Hogan has notably had trouble separating from man coverage in the Patriots’ biggest wins of the past two seasons (Super Bowl LI and the AFC Championship Game vs Jacksonville). Because of his established rapport with Brady and special teams value, Hogan is a lock to make the team, and will have a role on the offense. But it should not be out of the question that Britt or another one of the higher pedigree options (Phillip Dorsett, Jordan Matthews, Cordarrelle Patterson) on the New England wide receiver depth chart eat into Hogan’s snaps.

Beyond Edelman and Hogan, the Patriots have no roster locks at wide receiver (I would put Patterson and Matthew Slater in a separate category as special teamers). The Patriots usually prefer to keep five wide receivers on the 53-man roster, meaning that Britt will be competing against the likes of Jordan Matthews, Phillip Dorsett, Malcolm Mitchell (though I think his knees make him close to a lost cause at this point), Braxton Berrios, and Riley McCarron for a roster spot on the 2018 team. Not only that, the Patriots use 11 personnel (3 WR, 1 RB, 1 TE) often, so whoever wins the third and fourth receiver spots should stand to have a prominent role in the offense (especially as the Patriots manage Edelman’s workload in his return from the ACL tear). I give Britt a great chance to win at least a top-four wide receiver spot on the offense, and likely top-two or three, due to his unique physical traits, New England’s need for an outside presence at receiver who can threaten the defense down the field, his proven production, and his hunger factor.

In 2016, the Patriots cycled through four wide receivers in their 11 personnel packages: Edelman, Hogan, Mitchell, and Amendola. As they look to limit physical wear and tear on top players and present different matchup problems for defenses, I expect a similar rotation in 2018, with Edelman, Hogan, Britt, and one of Matthews, Dorsett, or Mitchell, as the offense deemphasizes 12 personnel due to the lack of a competent number two tight end (sorry, Dwayne Allen) and becomes more rooted in 21 and 11 personnel. This does not mean I expect Britt to post gaudy numbers; he’s still behind at least Rob Gronkowski, Edelman, the running back who is on the field, and likely Hogan in the pecking order for targets. However, I believe that Britt’s presence will let the Patriots to feel comfortable in 11 personnel and allow the offense to keep the dimension many thought it lost with the Brandin Cooks trade. Sellers of Kenny Britt stock are selling a distressed asset, and we would be wise to buy before its value blows through the roof.