armariuminterreta - Tumblr blog

[armariuminterreta]

The election coverage this year was long, drawn-out, and obsessed with speculating about majorities. But how close actually was the election?

[armariuminterreta]

2019 is not the slam-dunk “gotcha” example that everybody thinks it is.

[armariuminterreta]

Come play with the interactive widgets! And watch what shifts in voting and polling imply for seat and national outcomes.

[armariuminterreta]

Despite Newspoll’s improving performance, maybe we shouldn’t overdraw conclusions for polling errors of the federal election.

[armariuminterreta]

Ever onward, ever upward, working on the being ever-better.

[armariuminterreta]

Delve behind the curtain and discover what goes into making an election forecast.

[armariuminterreta]

South Australia goes to the polls this evening! Re-promoting our forecast for posterity, kudos and the true test tonight. Have a watch party and watch the votes go down!

[armariuminterreta]

To quote Twitter, electing the Senate and the House on different dates would be an insane thing to do (though I’d love to see it happen in my lifetime).

[armariuminterreta]

Variety is the spice of life, but outlier polls are not necessarily the meat of the matter.

[armariuminterreta]

NAFTA was a scapegoat for American economic problems for much of the last decade. But this political pinata never actually did what most people accuse it of.

[armariuminterreta]

If we want to discuss how inflation ends empires, first we gotta make sure we’re using the right definitions. And oh holy historiography, do I want to pick an argument about definitions.

[armariuminterreta]

Polling has created its own ecosystem of checks and balances that penalize and correct error; if polling error was ridiculously predictable, none of us would ever be surprised by elections.

[armariuminterreta]

Amid the anticipation of the next election, polls are coming out and under sharp scrutiny and discussion. Here’s a hand-crafted guide to preserving your peace of mind, and not caring!

[armariuminterreta]

While we agree with Dr Bonham that approval ratings are rubbish, they're more the sort of thing you'd toss into recycling than landfill.