austraz-randbats

[austraz-randbats]

the power of webs basculegion

Under Sticky Web, Chimecho can beat Tinkaton 1v1. This might seem ridiculous. Tinkaton is a specially bulky Steel/Fairy breaker; Chimecho is a weak CM sweeper that hits it ineffectively. But if Tinkaton can't deny recovery with Thunder Wave or Encore, it can't outdamage it with Basculegion denying Gigaton Hammer.

Does Basculegion deny Gigaton Hammer? No. Basculegion was my only wincon; I couldn't afford Stealth Rock damage and 25% from a move that, yes, is resisted, but has 160 BP before STAB. Basculegion can't switch into Gigaton Hammer, so it can't deny it.

[austraz-randbats]

games like this are why I don't talk trash

[austraz-randbats]

austraz (2060) vs. JustAFacade (1976)

Haven't been playing much; some rating decay. Intimidate doesn't work here. Early Tera, but f I'm given this much advantage, why not use it? A 5v3 for a Tera is a good trade.

Scouting for Oricorio was very useful. I had Falinks and Lurantis in the back; Oricorio beats both. An Oricorio reveal at the right time would've won.

[austraz-randbats]

This is good advice that mostly applies to randbats, but OU having team preview means you don't have to play around that, which is something I have trouble with. Take this game I just played: I was winning on turn 2, but got predicted and didn't midground the unrevealed slots, so lost most of my advantage.

Turn 1, I thought about clicking SD on DD, but didn't want to make that read. In this instance it would've been better – SD -> Bug Bite saves a turn of LO damage – but I wouldn't read too much into it. (Do people make more aggressive opening plays when it's late? When they've been playing for a long stretch?)

Turn 3, I fear Mach Punch and get read. Conkeldurr -> doubling into a Steel resist was a good play. Would Bug Bite have been better here? I'm not sure. Should I have reasoned that someone who'd DD -> turn 2 Tera would make risky plays? I don't think about psychology.

Turn 4, I make another predictable play and end up having to sac my Golduck. Conkeldurr is hard to midground: it has Facade for neutral damage, CC for Rock- and Steel-types, and Knock Off for ghosts. Normal + Fighting + Dark is unresisted. But when there are unrevealed teamslots, it's also a gamble: do they have a Ghost-type and predict CC? Do they have a Fairy-type that doesn't mind losing its item?

At the time I thought I'd lost my advantage by turn 11 only to regain it on turn 12; it's only from watching the replay that I realize how strong Pikachu is here. I do realize it when Illumise comes out, of course: the Gen 3 bugs are deeply annoying.

Did I play badly around the unrevealed slots, or did I just get unlucky? It felt like I played badly – I made predictable plays and got predicted, and early-game Electric moves always risk losing momentum to a Ground-type switchin – but if I'd mispredicted, I could've taken 50% from a Hydro Pump, which would've put Pikachu into Mach Punch range.

[austraz-randbats]

Specs Basculegion in rain + surprise Espeon vs. webs

austraz (2138) vs. stinkypokeeee (2086)

Hydro Pump crit OHKOs Pelipper. Insane.

[austraz-randbats]

Life Orb is bad

austraz (2108) vs. TSM_Noob (2053)

Revavroom switches in on a Knock Off and sweeps by attacking seven times from 50%, preventing a Polteageist countersweep.

[austraz-randbats]

Recovering from a bad first turn

austraz (2156) vs. Lambo Murcie (2174)

Lead Kleavor vs. Mew. I can 2HKO or pivot but I'd rather get rocks up... except Stone Axe is 95% and I miss and get oneshot with Hydro Pump, which is 33% on one of three sets. Great! Do I resign?

No, I have Sawsbuck. Maybe it's losing, maybe it's not. I get the 60%s and opponent reveals Serperior. I have to fear Glare; Sawsbuck is only good because it's fast (217). I switch to Dialga and fail to click TWave, so Houndoom (213) comes in for free. Arceus-Fire is a good defensive check and a Sludge Bomb poison means it can't be Glared later... but there's a Kyogre. Great!

Once Serperior (227) is gone, Sawsbuck wins. The Tera Stellar set sounds incredibly scary; thankfully, it's LO Tera Dragon. LO is a bad item that's easy to exploit. Opponent doesn't want to give it up, though, so that doesn't work; I'll have to win with Iron Valiant instead.

I sac Milotic to get Sawsbuck in vs. Kyogre. I think here I'm still losing; my opponent had an Enamorus in the back, which beats Val and loses to Sawsbuck, so trading Serperior for Sawsbuck would've been correct. But I win the trade of mispredicts: I Tera Normal Headbutt to OHKO Serp and instead Enamorus comes in predicting Horn Leech.

[austraz-randbats]

Never resign

austraz (2168) vs. scyther225 (2192)

HDB Pachirisu is trash. Walled by Gastrodon, but I get a lucky crit, then miss two 80%s in a row and misread. I should've preserved Decidueye, which my opponent clearly had nothing for. Roost -> Tera Steel would've been better, I think, but at the time I thought I could break with Flutter Mane and clean with CB Bax. LO Pult in the back isn't too bad - I can trade Ludicolo for damage and I'm fine. Then I miss the 85%.

Hydro Pump was incorrect. LO Giga Drain would've done min 48% according to Calcdex, plus 20% LO recoil for the 2HKO, putting it into Ice Shard range.

Then this happens.

I don't know if that was a Tera Steel predict (Bax doesn't get Tera Steel) but Dragon Darts was correct. After that, Bax wins.

[austraz-randbats]

Swindling a worse position with Falinks

austraz (2106) vs. thethirstysimp (2255)

Guts Heracross

SG Tera Ground Revavroom (useful defensively)

SD Leavanny (no webs—sad!)

Specs Golduck

CB Baxcalibur

LO No Retreat Falinks

I was sure this was losing. LO is bad on lastmons and I think I was imprecise in the early game. But it's better to be lucky in the late game.

Lead Heracross vs. Persian. I have to respect Aerial Ace. Reva. Fake Out, so it's Silk Scarf, which is annoying. I greed and SG, which was a mistake. Great Tusk comes out. If it doesn't have Ice Spinner I always go Leavanny. Shuffling brings out Heracross to tank an Avalanche for a free Knock Off but I greed again and CC into a Trevenant reveal. I've thrown Heracross away at this point so I trade it for a Knock Off.

Was this imprecise? I'm not sure. Heracross was high-value, but this team wants to punch holes with Golduck to force a Bax/Falinks endgame. Maybe that'll look like CB Ice Shard to clean up after a No Retreat sweep, or maybe it'll look like trading Bax for damage and tempo, but I'm not sure where Heracross fits into it. Heracross is better, though; maybe I could've brought Falinks in on a switch as an early-game breaker and saved Heracross for a sweep? Falinks has LO, which is terrible lategame - LO lastmons end up 20% short of a win far too often for my liking. (To get to an endgame that's still contested, you need a near-equal position, and near-equal positions are the kinds most likely to be decided by small amounts of damage.) Was it worth it?

If I hadn't greeded on Great Tusk, I'd have gotten about 30% in exchange for LO damage... but if my opponent hadn't had an answer to SG Reva I'd have been winning on turn 2. I'd still have had to switch out, since Tera Ground can't tank EQ: it still does ~53-63%. I don't think 30% for 10% makes that much of a difference.

KO into Trevenant would've been nice but who goes into Trevenant on Heracross? That's a very confident CC predict, Guts is guaranteed to have Knock Off, and Freezai would knock. Here I realized I'd blundered into a worse position.

But worse positions happen. I trade Heracross for Knock Off into Harvest Trevenant. Harvest is strong. It's not something to give up lightly. But what are the options? Chimecho and Trevenant can't come in on Knock Off, Persian, Avalugg, and Cacturne can't come in on CC, and Great Tusk is slower and get two-shot. Giving up Cacturne would be understandable, but then what?

More shuffling. Avalugg recovers to full on a switch—I hope that doesn't matter later. I make a play and bring Golduck in on a switch. I have to break Persian. I Specs Hydro into a Cacturne reveal. Alas!

Chimecho is annoying. It outspeeds Falinks and I don't have Tera Dark. I don't miss any Gunk Shots, but I had to go for the 80%s. A full team reveal is a concession, but overall my position is worse, and a Bax/Falinks endgame looks like the least bad option. I sac Golduck for the 2v4.

It's losing given correct play, but everyone's worse in endgames, myself included. Falinks loses to Persian unless it can set up, so I have to trade it for Bax. I'd have tried harder to avoid the speed tie endgame if not for the threat of Tera Dark.

Turn 32: The speed tie arrives. If I win it, I live a Psychic, set up, break Chimecho with Iron Head, and go for the flinch vs. Sturdy. If I lose it, I lose immediately to Psychic—but my opponent doesn't know that, since I could Tera Dark. It's a 50% and then a 30%, but after the bad start I'm not sure what else I could've done. I think if I'd played Heracross better I'd have been able to break Persian, use it as a breaker, and maybe even save it for the lategame after dealing with Tera Fairy Chimecho.

[austraz-randbats]

Sometimes I play randbats. Sometimes I write about my games in Obsidian. But we have the internet, so now I'm doing it here. Hi.

It's an interesting toy problem. I kinda care about how I do on toy problems; sometimes there are lessons that generalize to harder and more important ones. If I had a less conservative cultural background I'd probably play poker instead.

My writeups will be wrong sometimes. If I were better I'd be higher rated.

Peak #4 2023-08-01

[austraz-randbats]

Playing around Ditto

austraz (2081) vs. gobrokeforpokes (2086)

TBolt Cresselia Ursaring CM Hatterene Beartic support Swalot QD Tera Ground Volcarona

TBolt is 25% on Cress. I don't want to reveal it.

Turn 1: Cress vs. Ditto is an interesting lead matchup. Opponent will switch out; so will I. Ursaring is bulky.

Turn 2: Ursaring threatens EQ vs. Toxapex. I fear TSpikes; switch to Hatterene. 23% with Leftovers is bearable. I debate between Psychic vs. Draining Kiss. Psychic does more damage, no Dark-types vs. Cress. In retrospect I should've clicked Mystical Fire, which didn't occur to me as an option. Same BP as Draining Kiss and Defiant is annoying. (This was a mistake; what Defiant mon would want to switch in?)

Turn 3: I predict Iron Head and get read. Stonjourner is a threat. It might force me into Tera Ground Ursaring. I go Cress.

Math excursion: Stone Edge is 80% to hit. if you roll two five-sided dice, what are the odds that neither comes up 5? There are 25 outcomes: (1 1), (2 1) ... (5 1), (1 2) ... (5 2), ... (5 5). Out of these, we have (1 5) (2 5) (3 5) (4 5) (5 5) and (5 1) (5 2) (5 3) (5 4) (5 5), but 5 appears twice, so (25 - 9)/25 = 16/25 = 4²/5² = 64% to hit.

But it's 20% that I can stay in. Ursaring is a new 20% and a roll on top of the 64%. I'd rather sac than tera early.

Non-math excursion: this is all System 1. I don't know probability. If it's an 80.9% roll with a 64% chance to hit, what are the odds of a 2HKO? But there are better and worse outcomes. Stone Edge has a high crit chance (1/8 = 12.5%), but that doesn't matter here; the worst outcome is a 2HKO, and there are better outcomes where I hit. I don't think it really matters, though; if I'd seen a better line I'd taken it, and getting better at probability will pay off on the ladder way less than learning not to tilt. I suspect that generalizes.

Turn 8: I get one EQ and give up Ursaring for damage on Stonjourner. I can RK with Beartic. But opponent switches out to Toxapex, which is a good play.

I can't set up because of Ditto, and I have to answer Toxapex with Hatterene to play around Toxic or TSpikes, I don't know which. I haven't revealed Swalot yet; I'm hoping to bait TSpikes, but I also also haven't needed to reveal it. I need an information advantage.

Opponent's gameplan is to chip me down with Toxapex and Forretress. Forretress can't switch in on Hatterene safely, but Toxapex can't stay in.

Palafin revealed. Another threat, but TBolt looks good here. I'll try to set up, pressure Ditto, and Tera Electric at the right moment.

After some shuffling, turn 15: Toxapex comes in vs. Cress. Pex can live a hit, Toxic my wincon, and switch out, and with Regenerator that's not enough progress for that concession. I reveal Swalot predicting Toxic.

Turn 19: TSpikes is a mistake. I can always go Swalot. Stonjourner can't switch in and Cress has TBolt for Palafin. I'll have to make concessions for chip on Forretress. Cress can tank and recover.

Turn 28: Picking up Stonjourner is nice. I don't have to worry about a future LO-boosted Stone Edge and I don't have to preserve Beartic. My team is pretty slow and Volc does nothing with Palafin around.

Turn 32: Band? I still don't want to tera. I don't need to. Precise calculation is important.

Turn 35: I could Tera Electric here, but I want the optionality, so I take a quieter line and concede Toxic for the initiative. Obviously Pex will switch out. I'm not sure that this was accurate - if I'd gotten predicted and switched in Swalot on a Recover, the position would get hairy. I don't fear Band Palafin.

Everything I do has to be positioned against Ditto. Cress improofs itself as long as it doesn't tera. Swalot improofs Hatterene. Cress improofs Swalot. Beartic can't come in, but at some point I can CC and sac to pressure Ditto... and the last mon is a Torterra!