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[becausemls]

NOMADS OR NATIVES

Game week 4 is over and the dust has settled. Chances are you either made out like a bandit with FC Cincinnati, or crashed and burned with the New England Revolution. Sadly, I fall in the ladder category. At the bitter end of an otherwise respectable game week I did the unthinkable and put three New England players on my team. Needless to say, this was... unwise. My rank plummeted to 125 overall and my team ended on 51 points. Vive la révolution.

But enough about the failures of yesterday, let’s focus on better things to come. In my opinion, the most obvious question of the week is whether or not to stick with the tried-and-true formula of favoring home players. Statistically, home players outperform away players by a decent margin. This is true in every league but even more so in MLS. For perspective, I believe I’ve selected fewer than 5 away players this season, including bench slots. This strategy has certainly cost me points (see Darwin Quintero), but overall it’s incredibly effective. But every once in a while we are presented with a slate of truly uninspiring home match-ups. A game week that calls the old ‘rule’ into question. This is one of those weeks.

NOMADS

As you can see from the table above, despite a full slate of games, very few match-ups standout for fantasy potential. The first two away teams we should consider are Minnesota and LAFC. Both face abysmal opposition and both have proven to be effective on the road. DC United is another away team with a tempting match-up. Orlando has struggled at virtually everything this season and have yet to find their stride. Couple that with DC’s strong start and it begins to look like one of the standout fixtures. 

New York Red Bulls are talented, exciting, and at times utterly infuriating. Their lackluster performance against Orlando in game week 4 burned many managers, myself included. But as bad as the Red Bulls looked, Chicago looked worse. And while recent experiences have left me with mixed feelings, having a NYRB player on your bench is probably not a terrible idea.

So maybe spare a thought for the lowly travelers. William Butler Yeats said, “There are no strangers here; only friends you haven’t yet met.” The nomads have a lot to offer this week so keep an open mind. 

NATIVES

As a dedicated armchair tourist I prefer to stay close to home. Henry George Bohn said, “Every dog is a lion at home.” I tend to agree but this week has the potential to turn lions into lambs. The typical home team advantage is diminished by the quality of the visitors.  

Toronto FC is still a question mark in my mind. They looked good in GW1, had a bye in GW2, squeaked past New England (!) in GW3, followed by another bye in GW4. This is not an encouraging start. So far they’ve scored 4 goals and shipped 3 (two of those against the worst team in MLS). They’ve just signed Spanish midfielder Pozuelo but he’s unlikely to feature this weekend considering he only arrived in Canada this week. I may put DeLeon on my bench but I’m still undecided. 

Sporting KC take on Montreal and offer the best clean sheet potential of the round. The Impact will be without Piatti so I will certainly have an SKC defender in my lineup. I also view Nemeth as a reasonable option considering he’s nailed for 90 minutes and still relatively cheap. 

FC Cincinnati, Columbus Crew, and the LA Galaxy round out the best of the best of what’s left. Lineups will be key, especially in the Galaxy game. This is an obvious challenge considering they play in the last match of the round so you have no good options if you get burned by LA’s starting XI.  

So regardless of inclination, natives or nomads, remember the words of Yogi Berra: “When you see a fork in the road, take it.” 

I’ll post player picks later this evening or tomorrow. Au revoir. 

[becausemls]

GARDENS IN THE DESERT

Another weekend of fantasy MLS is fast approaching and the slate of available games is skinny to say the least. Only 10 teams compete in round 4 making squad selection relatively simple. The obvious standouts of the week are FC Dallas, New York Red Bulls, and Los Angeles FC. 

Needless to say, Vela (FWD; $11.8), Diomande (FWD; $9.8), and Wright-Phillips (FWD; $10.8) should be in every squad. Period. This is probably not the week to get creative or hunt for a differential. With so few players to chose from, fantasy squads will have a lot of uniformity so your rank could really suffer if a differential pick doesn’t produce. The basic template will likely be some combination of the following: 

Keeper: Miller (LAFC; $5.7), Robles (NYRB; $5.9), Maurer (FCD; $4.5)

Defense: Duncan (NYRB; $5.2), Hollingshead (FCD; $5.8), Zimmerman (LAFC; $7.3)

Midfield: Royer (NYRB; $8.0), Gil (NER; $9.7), Pomykal (FCD; $6.7)

Forwards: Vela (LAFC; $11.8), Diomande (LAFC; $9.8), Wright-Phillips (NYRB; $10.8)

I don’t plan to deviate too far from this basic structure, with one possible exception: according to the Union presser, Fabian (MID; $9) will likely be deployed as a second striker in their match against Columbus. If true, he could be an extremely productive addition to any squad.

UPDATE: Fabian is considered doubtful to start

[becausemls]

THE SPOILS OF VICTORY

Budgets are a fact of life. Edmund Burke once said, "Frugality is founded on the principle that all riches have limits." But these limits can begin to feel abstract when viewed through the prism of the MLS fantasy game. We're only four weeks into the spring season and many managers have already realized a 10, 15, or even 20% budget increase. Needless to say, a bigger budget makes filling a squad much easier and far less time consuming. Anyone can perform reasonably well simply by selecting the most expensive players, which many of us are suddenly able to do routinely.  

Like Mr. Burke, I have a tendency to romanticize the principles of fiscal limitations. I enjoy the earliest weeks of a new fantasy season when budgets are tight and success or failure rests on the shoulders of some $5M moonshot. I enjoy the purest form of fantasy sports: knowledge mixed with luck. While I’m admittedly stubborn and a bit old-fashioned, I’m not entirely rigid. For instance: once a critic of the limitless transfers concept, I’ve since come to enjoy the weekly reboot and endless retooling. But as team values approach $110M+ it becomes more difficult to enjoy.

These were the ‘sure things’ I had on my team going into game week 3. They rose $500K regardless of their GW3 performance. For instance, DeLeon (2 pts) and Quintero (4 pts) received the same price rise as Rooney (23 pts) and Sauro (15 pts). By the end of the weekend I had earned an extra $4.3M in team value with virtually zero effort. And while it was certainly fun watching my team value boom overnight, it also felt too easy. Too predictable. Suddenly the limits of riches seem... ambiguous. Mr. Burke would be aghast.

I don’t have a solution or presume to suggest otherwise, but I hope they find a way to keep the game feeling fresh a bit longer. Until then, be bold and different. And if playing with the same ‘sure thing’ template week after week begins to feel stale, embrace the words of Luc de Clapiers who famously said, “The most absurd and reckless aspirations have sometimes led to extraordinary success.” 

[becausemls]

TWO WRONGS DON'T MAKE A RIGHT; TRY THREE

The Ides of March are upon us and Game week 3 is fast approaching. Before jumping into predictions and picks, lets review a few points from GW2. Chicago had an uninspiring home opener in front of ~ 300 fans, drawing with Orlando 1-1 (Sapong/Dwyer). Neither team looked good and no one from this fixture is likely to feature in my team anytime soon. Columbus won away to New England but it's hard to extrapolate too much given the overall state of the Revolution. Dallas easily dispatched a Zlatan-less Galaxy (great job, Pax!) and Minnesota's 3-0 victory over San Jose provided further insight into the abysmal state of the Quakes. Sporting KC continue to impress and LAFC, particularly Vela, look downright frightening. Game week 2 was short on surprises but entertaining all the same. I ended the round with 81 points and an overall rank of 362.

Game week 3 offers several promising match ups and numerous opportunities to capitalize on price rises and squad rotations. The budget vs. points debate is very real with valid points on each side, but personally, I'm far more concerned with points so I'm focusing on players with the best overall potential. Not to say it's unwise to fill out your team with players expecting a price bump, only that doing so above other considerations can lead to missed points and a suffering rank.

With points in mind, the two teams I'm most interested in this week are Columbus Crew and Toronto FC. Columbus has been good at home and Zardes looks hungry for goals. He's affordable (FWD; $9.7) and he's the focal point of a potent attack. I also like the Crew's clean sheet potential so I'm looking at least one defensive option (likely Sauro; $5.5) in addition to Zardes. As for Toronto, they play New England, the current punching bag of the Eastern Conference. I will almost certainly have 3 TFC players heading into GW3. DeLeon (DEF; $5.5) is playing out of position and terrorized Philly's defense in GW1. At his price he's a must have player this week. Bono (GK) is another intriguing pick at $5.6. He's a solid keeper facing a shaky attack. Bradley (MID; $9.5) was amazing in GW1 and while unlikely to replicate the goals, he's still a bonus point machine. Hamilton (FWD; $4.4) is a curious bench option, but he burned me in GW1. I'm still unsure if he'll be in my final GW3 squad at roster lock.

Helen Keller said, "Optimism is the faith that leads to achievement. Nothing can be done without hope and confidence." So whether you're blinded with optimism or deafened by despair, good luck.

[becausemls]

MONEY COSTS TOO MUCH

Game week 1 is in the books. Coincidentally, the ‘books’ is where I’d like to focus my immediate attention. Specifically, player price changes and what we know so far. In short: not too much. However, a few things should be considered based on reviewing our own team values. First, low priced players do not get the benefit of mercy if they fail to perform. As you can see from the chart below, $4.5 priced defenders, mids, and forwards were judged just as harshly as their higher priced colleagues. Many assumed these players would increase in value simply for getting unexpected minutes. Obviously that assumption was incorrect.

As you can see, I had a rise of $2.2 coupled with a drop of $0.6, resulting in an overall gain of $1.6 in team value. (84 points).

Lodeiro and Acosta each had double-digit returns and received the max $0.5 increase. A double-digit score appears to be the sweet spot for the 0.5 rise but only time will tell if that threshold will fluctuate as more results are incorporated.  

Mosquera dropping $0.1, despite earning 3 points, was a painful reminder of the fickle nature of the mysterious pricing system. C'est la vie. Vega was spared only by the ‘four-is-the-floor’ rule carried over from last season. 

I was hopeful that at least one or two $4.5ers would perform (looking at you Hamilton) and get a big price bump, but overall I feel okay about GW1. At least I have a better understanding going forward. Benjamin Franklin famously said, “An investment in knowledge pays the best interest.” So whether this week left you flush with Benjamins or crashing on Poor Richard’s couch, take what you can from your new situation and adjust your plans accordingly.

[becausemls]

WAITING IS LEARNING

New beginnings are just few days away but I'm already filled with a lingering fear of missed opportunities and wasted resources. I understand it’s best to wait until shortly before the roster lock (March 2nd, 1:00 PM EST) and base my decisions on facts rather than hearsay; however, patience has never been my strong suit. So with that in mind, let's explore one of my favorite alternatives to waiting: tinkering. 

Egalitarianism is the opening theme as we struggle to build a decent squad with a $100M budget. Assessing value is always important but it’s utterly critical going into a new season. Francois Rabelais once said, "Frugality is for the vulgar." If true, game week one makes vulgarians of all fantasy managers. Soon enough, team values will reach absurd levels, bolstered by the ability of clever players to work around whatever bizarro algorithm MLS settles on this year. But for now we're all the same. With that in mind, here are my budget picks for GW1:

"Humor is just another defense against the universe." -Mel Brooks

Goalkeepers - Tyton (FCC; $5), Vega (SJ; $4 ~ risky pick)

Defenders - Nerwinski (VAN; $5), Smith (SEA; $5), Corrales (CHI; $4.5)

"He who walks in the middle of the road gets hit from both sides." -George P. Shultz

Midfielders - Schuller (MIN; $6), Pomykal (DAL; $6), Larentowicz (ATL; $5.5), Vera (HOU; $6)

"Invincibility lies in the defense; the possibility of victory in the attack." -Sun Tzu

Forwards - Nemeth (SKC; $7), Mattocks (FCC; $6.5)

While we patiently--or impatiently--wait for last minute news of lineups and injuries, let's remember the immortal words of the late Henri Nouwen who famously said, "Waiting is a period of learning. The longer we wait, the more we hear about him for whom we are waiting." 

Best of luck to you, fellow vulgarians. 

[becausemls]

HOW DID IT GET SO LATE SO SOON?

The start of the 2019 season is less than a week away and personally I couldn’t be happier. The winter was long and full of FPL terrors so I’m genuinely excited to begin anew, stateside. I hope to devote more time to the blog this season with regular updates and player picks. Thanks to all who have supported the site. Drop me a line on twitter or instagram anytime. Cheers and good luck this season!

[becausemls]

Beware the Ides of March

For me it was another week of lackluster performances and lopsided picks. Attack and midfield were respectable (aside from Meram and Martinez), but my defensive picks were disastrous. My so-called autoroo was also a laughable effort resulting in a 1 point gain from bench. Italo Calvino once said, “Melancholy is sadness that has taken on lightness,” and after another disappointing showing in our beloved league, I agree completely. As the saying goes, a storm can’t last forever.

The matches that intrigue me the most in GW3 are Atlanta at home against Vancouver, and NYCFC at home against Orlando. Vancouver has looked okay so far but I cannot imagine they’ll do much in the terror dome. Orlando on the other hand is a bit trickier to predict. They have key players returning (Kljestan and possibly Dwyer) but they face an inform NYC on the road. NYC has the potential to devastate teams that lack strong defensive cohesion and Orlando has looked shaky these past two weeks. Maybe the return of Kljestan will rally their troops and firm up their shape but at this point I can’t see any outcome other than NYC grabbing all three points.

GW3 must haves: Villa, Almiron, and Gutierrez

[becausemls]

MISTAEKS HAPPEN

Sometimes the best way to deal with tragedy is with laughter. The french novelist Colette famously said, “You will do foolish things, but do them with enthusiasm.” I was instantly reminded of this quote upon reviewing my GW1 team. I went heavy on Toronto and Seattle, passed on Houston, and failed to execute my auto-switch plan due to website issues (more on this later). I also captained Lodeiro instead of Vako. Added all together they equal my worst ever start to fantasy MLS, by far. I finished the round with an overall rank of 1457 (I think?) and a score of 72.

As you can see, I got a lot wrong in round 1. Toronto were incredibly eager to hit the post and/or ad boards which resulted in 13 shots, 2 on target, and 0 goals for TFC. Not a great start for last season’s cup champions. For comparison, Houston had 13 shots, 10 on target, and scored 4 goals. I expect TFC to recover quickly but I will probably avoid all together until they regain form.

Finally, the terrible “updated” user interface and bizarre scoring/saving errors have to be fixed ASAP. I want the fantasy game to be great and believe it ultimately will be, but there are a LOT of problems that need immediate attention from the developers. If this drags on for another 2-3 weeks I imagine most casuals will stop playing and even serious, committed managers will lose interest. Not much we can do beyond sending feedback and hoping for the best.

Personally I’m thrilled to be playing fantasy MLS again, warts and all, and I’m really looking forward to another wacky season (or, uh, two 1/2 seasons). 

[becausemls]

It’s All Happening - GW1

Fantasy MLS is back and this season brings big changes to the league as well as the fantasy game. LAFC is obviously the biggest variable this season; however, with a promising roster and beloved manager I have a feeling they will be a solid addition to MLS ranks. I’m expecting a decent finish, just short of a playoff spot. The other big change this season is still happening, I think. MLS is rolling out massive changes to their fantasy website (some good, some godawful) and I think everyone is still trying to adjust, myself included. I’m cautiously optimistic they will get the UI right, eventually, and I’m 100% onboard with a dedicated phone app (coming this spring, supposedly). 

I’ll post more throughout the weekend as the results trickle in...

Join the BecauseMLS league (league code: LPUY6NJT)

Good luck!

[becausemls]

Toronto the Good... the Bad and the Ugly

Despite the unimpeachable and downright inviting nickname, Toronto the Good, there was nothing good about their 5-3 home loss to Montreal. Shipping 5 goals is always shocking but doing so at home is capitulation. If I sound salty about this particular loss it’s because I am. I loaded up on Toronto’s defense this week and paid dearly for it. My overall rank slid from 11th to 14th heading into the weekend and I have little hope of improved performances from anyone on that Toronto side.

Atlanta were as scary as ever as they rolled past LA 4-0. At home Atlanta seem unstoppable and considering they have at least 4 players capable of double-digit hauls my only regret is wasting a spot on Guzan.

LA remain useless and unworthy of further mention.

Montreal is the real head-scratcher for me. WTF is going on with this team? One week they look totally vacant and the next week they storm Toronto and put 5 goals past a defense generally respected for its overall stability. I cannot imaging how frustrating it must be to be an Impact fan these days.

So far I’m on 77 points with a round rank of 1040. Full round update after the weekend games. Good luck!

[becausemls]

Josef and the Amazing Technicolor Hat-trick(s)

Round 28 was a terrifying lesson in why we target home teams. The round opened with Atlanta’s assault of a shocking and utterly broken New England side. Anyone with Nguyen on their team knew early on that spot was wasted - myself included. New England couldn’t keep their players on the field (2 red cards) let alone hope to stop or even contain Martinez who scored 3 all by himself. Along with Mr. Martinez just about every other Atlanta player scored a goal in this 7-0 thrashing. I genuinely feel for anyone who went with anything other than 4 Atlanta players. Of course, we all know Martinez wasn’t done as he went to on to score another 3 goals on Saturday. Huge congratulations to those managers wise enough to captain him.  The second game of the week was Vancouver’s 3-0 stroll past Minnesota, providing massive fantasy points and further support for the time-honored tradition of home team focus.

The weekend games went largely as expected with a few exceptions. Personally I was a bit surprised by Montreal’s performance and New York Red Bulls provided a further blow as I targeted BWP in a switheroo with Piatti. My disappointments are relatively minor as I ended the round with 139 points and moved up one spot to 11th.

The coming round could be a bit trickier to navigate given the fixture pileup Atlanta is experiencing but with several DGW options it should be another high scoring week. I’ll post GW picks soon. 

[becausemls]

Montjoie Saint Denis!

First, I’d like to apologize for the lack of updates before the last round. I’m having a bit of trouble making my FTP cooperate with the system I thought would help me automate the process. I’m working on a fix which should make things run smoothly going forward.

On to fantasy MLS and Round 24!

This week is all about the Montreal Impact. Two home games this round means they are the clear standout when it comes to selecting your team. First, as always when discussing Montreal, is Mr. Piatti. At $11.2 he’s Montreal’s most expensive option but also their most threatening. Dzemaili is a close second at $9.2. These two guys look really dangerous when they attack together and double home games makes them a no-brainer. Personally, I’m taking Piatti & Dzemaili along with some combination of 2 Montreal defenders.

Chicago is the other DGW team this round - away to Montreal tonight and at home against Toronto on the 19th. While these fixtures aren’t quite as tempting as Montreal’s, I’ll likely go all in on the Fire as well. Rotation is the biggest concern so be prepared for at least one of your picks to disappoint with an early sub or an outright omission. C'est la vie. Sadly, this is the price we pay for countless rounds of ‘exciting’ double game weeks!

I will probably fill out my squad with a mixture of players from Seattle, NYC, San Jose, & SKC (still tinkering).

Good luck everyone! Sorry again for the recent site issues.

[becausemls]

Join or Die... or Don’t

I have a feeling this round will have more than a few strange outcomes. The DGW teams are meh and many of the other matches could easily be viewed as toss-ups, especially when considering dips and spikes in form that several of these teams have experienced recently. On the heels of such a big DGW, I believe going with tried-and-true strategies is the best approach. For me, that means waiting for the Philly & Columbus lineups to be released later today. Several decisions hinge on who starts in this uninspiring midweek match. I know that isn’t terribly helpful but it's honestly the best advice I can give for this round. Wait and see if at all possible. If your schedule won't allow for last minute adjustments, go with Meram, Steffan, Medunjanin, possibly O. Kamara and ignore everyone else. Philly played 2 matches in Round 20 and Columbus is traveling to both of their games. I ultimately agree with Mike from the MLSFI Podcast who suggested neither of these teams can afford to rotate much at this point, however, I would be lying if I told you Philly didn’t scare me. There are simply too many heavy hitters available with good/promising home games to blindly focus on decent-at-best DGW options. For captain it looks like Meram or O. Kamara will get the armband but I don’t feel great about either. Good luck everyone!

[becausemls]

Round 20 Recap

With another huge DGW behind us it’s time to review the highs and lows of Round 20. I ended the round on 145 points thanks to a monster performance from David Villa (Captain). At the other end of the spectrum is Nicolas Lodeiro. His unimaginably stupid 88th minute red card crushed the hopes of many managers in Round 20 and given his relatively poor form this season it will be difficult to suggest selecting him again. To anyone who did follow my advice on Low-deiro, mea culpa!

In addition to having Lodeiro (5 pts) and Giovinco (5 pts) in my team, I also opted for Moralez (12 pts) over Alessandrini (18 pts). Yikes.

Round 21 will likely be much less exciting with only 2 teams playing twice; however, don’t forget about the early deadline, July 26th, 7:30PM EDT.

I will post my picks for this week soon.

[becausemls]

Another Binate Game Week

As always, DGWs have a huge impact on fantasy scores. Game week 20 will be no different. I’ve listened to the podcasts, read the posts, and consumed the articles. Guess what. Pick double game week players. That’s pretty much it for this round. Your budget can and will dictate which ones you select but stick to that basic principle and you should be okay. In a round with so many teams playing twice filling your squad with DGW players is not only dead simple, it’s crucial. This is sure to be a high scoring week with the vast majority of managers fielding full DGW squads, including the bench spots.

Here’s the good news: loading up on DGW players will be incredibly simple because nearly every team plays twice. Fourteen to be exact. That said, many of the same challenges we typically associate with DGWs are shaping up to be factors yet again. Rotation, call-ups, and poorly reported last minute injuries are the primary pitfalls of this week. Which brings us to Seattle. Is Frei injured? The official site says yes but I’ve seen no confirmation from any outside source, including an interview he gave yesterday immediately following practice. Bottom line: proceed with extreme caution. I will likely make an eleventh hour switch to Bush ($5.5; MTL) unless Frei’s status is clarified.

Pay attention to last minute injuries via Mike’s excellent MLS Injury News and don’t forget to set your lineups! Good luck and have fun!

[becausemls]

Hello!

Welcome to BecauseMLS.com. This site is dedicated to my obsession with Fantasy MLS. It will feature blog posts, resources, GW picks, and helpful links. If you happen to find it useful and/or entertaining, great! If not, that’s okay too. Either way, thanks for stopping by and checking it out. The design, layout, and function will evolve quite a lot over the next few weeks and months so please be patient as I iron out the wrinkles.

Regarding my own Fantasy record, I’ve done consistently well in the past across multiple leagues and competitions (MLS, PL, Euro, Bundesliga). That said, I make no guarantees. After all, fantasy sports should be fun.

Special shout-out to the folks over at the MLSFI Podcast. I recently discovered that Mr. Guy Sanchez coined the expression “Because MLS.” Despite my blatant appropriation he was incredibly gracious and even wished me good luck. I’m a big fan of the show and his words of encouragement were very much appreciated.

Another post will be coming soon with GW20 picks and details.

Thanks for reading,

Cheers