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Business Intelligence -Geoffrey Maxwell
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This page is about educational resources geared towards the technology of business and the business of technology. Administered by Geoffrey Maxwell, a current Master's student in Business Intelligence at Full Sail University, the page welcomes all to join in on the conversation to enrich and preserve the innovation we search for in the BI field.
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Mastery Reflection 12 - Business Intelligence Capstone
Over the past twelve months, I have been working towards my Masters of Science in Business Intelligence.  Over the course of this time, I have had the pleasure of learning invaluable concepts surrounding the topics of big data, data mining, statistics, business intelligence technologies, data visualization, professional communication, creative reporting, and executive-level decision making.  Before entering the program, I reviewed each course’s syllabus and gathered a great deal of preliminary information to help me decide if this program was the right one for me.  After taking a holistic look at the program’s entire curriculum, I felt strongly that this course would enhance my analytical thinking and help mold me into a BI professional as well as equip me with highly desirable skill sets in the BI industry.  
Some of the concepts that I’ve learned during this time that have been easier to grasp than others are analytics, the practical uses of BI technologies - such as data warehouses, ERPs, knowledge repositories, and ETL tools, statistics, data visualization, and creative reporting.  Some of the more advanced concepts that I would love to explore more intimately are data mining, machine learning, artificial intelligence, and advanced algorithms for leveraging data sets.  
Now that I have finished my time here at Full Sail, I truly believe that I have been prepared to walk seamlessly into the BI industry at the entry level and use the knowledge I have gained at Full Sail to improve in my entry position and become a seasoned BI professional over time.  The one thing that I believe could have slightly enhanced the program is if we were to have had access to mock data in assignments where data was required - perhaps inside of a mock data warehouse created by Full Sail.  Tableau and Excel were both great tools to leverage the data that we did have, and the instructors did a wonderful job of guiding us through the use of these tools.  Overall, this program has equipped me with the skill sets, traits, and level of practical knowledge to enter into the BI industry confidently and proudly.
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Mastery Reflection Course 11 - Business Intelligence Case Studies
In the eleventh course of our Business Intelligence Master of Science program, we were given a pre-selected company to perform a case study in which the final goal was to provide a data-driven solution to a problem that plagued the  company.  This first case study was followed by a company of our choosing and being able to perform a case study of equal intensity with critical points being added progressively throughout each week.  My original goals for this course were wildly off-task, as I did not fully understand what would be required for this month.  However, over the course of the entire program, I have come to develop a much broader sense of what a data-driven solution entails.  As a result of what previous courses have taught me, my expectations for this course were exceeded.  The discussion boards provided a foundation for the end-of-week assignments, while the assignments required the student to fully-map out a data-driven solution from front to end.  The instructor provided intimate and customized feedback to students to genuinely guide the first case study.  By the time we were ready to perform the second case study on our own company’s Capstone Solution Plan, students were well-equipped with the knowledge needed to meticulously flesh-out concerns that executives, management, and stakeholders would have with our plan; thus, much of our feedback was geared towards helping the student think proactively in providing a thorough assessment of our company along with problem/opportunity identification and feasible solution.
There were many things I learned during this course.  Foremost, in order to provide a strategic plan for a corporation or organization, the proposal must be written in the tone of a subject matter expert and must contain logic that appeals to an executive audience that cares about much more than knowing the names of popular software and hardware, trendy sales tools, or a collection of ideas that do not provide full cohesion.  In fact, the elements of the proposal must flow together to provide a thorough analysis of where a company has been, what capacity it currently operates within, where the company intends to go, a roadmap of how it will get there, and a way to measure the plan’s effectiveness.  Without the inclusion of these required elements, the plan lacks substance and is at risk of being rejected.  In a matured career, such a lackadaisical coverage could cause speculation into whether the planner (or planning team) has any clue at all about what an effective solution looks, sounds, and feels like.  At the end of the day, the plan must capture the audience’s attention, satisfy concerns before they arise, and give legitimate basis for the audience to attack the problem or opportunity at hand.
Moving forward, the concepts I have learned this month can be applied in my professional BI career in many ways.  The primary practical application from this course’s teachings is that in order to implement any kind of solution in a team environment, the ability to communicate, the art of persuasion, and clear depiction are of utmost importance.  Furthermore, when entering the BI field as a new graduate, the student must be able to clearly depict what is being brought to the table.  It is of equal importance to have a practical knowledge of a very technical field.  This course has placed the student in the position to use professional language and promote technically-sound content to establish trust between the audience and the planner.  In summary, this course has provided the student with the necessary skills and knowledge to enter the BI field as a new professional and communicate with a technical audience about implementing potential BI solutions.
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Course 10 - Business Intelligence Leadership and Communication Skills
This month was exciting at Full Sail University!  Our course in month 10, Business Intelligence Leadership and Communication Skills, exceeded my expectations set forth in the Mastery Outline in month 1.  In my course objectives, I indicated that I wanted to be able to create motion graphics components within an analytical presentation.  Our final assignment included an opportunity to utilize this skill set - along with the need to compose the presentation with a high degree of communication skills.  Another goal I set for myself in month 1 was to be able to effectively sell presentations through effective communications.  As stated, the tools and assets used in this program and this month’s course have prepared me to deliver presentations with effective communications “dead-in-the-pocket.”  My last goal was to be able to become fully capable of directing meeting agendas, its participants, and its learning environment.  Although we did not have the opportunity to collaborate on a project directly with other students this month, I am confident that the skills I have learned this month would help me to tackle this desire.
Beyond communication skills, this month really set the tone for understanding how to become an effective leader.  Grit, ambition, the will to keep moving forward when trials and tribulations are at its steepest, decision-making under uncertainty, preparation, and the ability to lead a team towards a common goal despite differences in culture, work ethics, integrity, and courage are all values and skills that have been taught by Full Sail this month.  These traits help form an exemplary leader, and those who are in leadership positions or are hoping to evolve into leaders would be unwise to think that these traits are not important.  In fact, the success of any organization or individual lies within the ability to direct and be directed and resiliency when things may not go as planned.
In my BI career, these traits will become truly important to retain and display on a daily basis.  In a field where communication failures can impact an organization for the worse, it is essential to be able to communicate effectively.  There have been many organizations that have gone down the toilet because of a lack of understanding between two parties or upper management, and it often involves a breakdown in communication.  Likewise, leadership is crucial in the BI field.  Without direction, an organization is headed into an oblivious nothing or into danger.  The most successful organizations all have a few things in common - and it is that it builds leaders at every level of the organization, it places leadership as a value on a light-tower for all to see, and it places the most extraordinary leaders who have mastered communication, resiliency, and strategic-thinking in the highest positions to help govern and direct the company’s success.  The material I have learned this month here at Full Sail have better prepared me to take on the reigns of becoming an effective leader that communicates clearly.
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Course 9 - Data Visualization and Creative Reporting
This month was very exciting at Full Sail University!  Our course in month 9, Data Visualization and Creative Reporting, offered a wealth of knowledge in the field of providing an artistic vision when presenting data coupled with the ability to relay a deep message with little or no verbiage.  The discussion posts were geared towards learning how to use the abundant tools available to business intelligence professionals; namely, Tableau, Excel, Microsoft Power BI Editor, Social Baker, TwitterCounter, among many other.  The wonderful thing about using these tools is that most of them are extensively compatible.  For example, utilizing Excel and Tableau together, I was able to create a map that conveyed the places I’ve traveled in my lifetime.  Additionally, it was proven that these tools are able to cohesively operate with presentational platforms - such as Keynote, PowerPoint, and iMovie.  Our end of week assignments were aimed at combining all of these entities to create multi-media, multi-data asset, and multi-analytical platforms presentations that told stories that could easily be visualized and understood with images and minimal audible language.  
Though my first initial goal of utilizing Illustrator and Photoshop to create data visualizations was not met, it was not due to the lack of course material that provided instruction.  In fact, the course was so rich with training that I actually forgot to give a dedicated focus to my original goal of using these two tools.  This was primarily due to the fact that there was a plethora of other exciting tools that were intriguing - to say the least.  In turn, these tools and training helped me achieve my second goal of creating effective storytelling presentations.  My third goal was met and exceeded by being able to create dashboards to help executives understand a “bird’s eye view” of an organization and make effective business decisions.  It will be extremely interesting to utilize this skill set when entering the professional world of BI.
Moving forward in life and in my BI career, these skill sets will be an invaluable asset.  Often times, professionals are very data-oriented and statistically-inclined; however, the ability to demonstrate effective presentation skills and win over an audience may be lackluster.  It is in these respects that I am excited to utilize what has been learned this month and continue building on it.  This class will help me continue honing my skills in BI as I wrap up the final months in this program.  Specifically, one of the requirements for next month is to be able to use these data visualization and creative reporting skills to use while using motion graphics.  Of course, motion graphics must have the foundational elements of visual appeal, clarity, and usefulness.  Finally, being able to use these skills in the last two closing months of this program will help my presentation skills build to a higher pedigree and polish my Capstone Thesis to a noteworthy presentation and literary piece.  
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Course 8 - Process Modeling and Analysis
This month here at Full Sail has been equally as challenging as last month.  Process Modeling and Analysis laid a foundation in intelligently conveying processes from a business process standpoint.  Many diagrams were required - which helped polish the presentation skill set that has been needed to successfully complete the program and develop communication skills through the form of visual presentations.  In week 1, we were instructed to build a website for our Capstone organization.  Each week afterwards, logic needed to be added to the previous material to create a cohesive unit of work that showed progress in a sequential manner.  Discussions served as building blocks and helped explore topics relevant to simulations.  Many of these simulations require complex algorithms - such as Integrated Simulation, while others use common sense modeling - such as Recognition-Primed Decision Modeling.  The discussions and activities were meant to simultaneously interact with the thought process behind building logic and understanding business processes as it relates to modeling.  The final assignment instructed us to finalize the website and have a sound plan to implement a business model, the ability to analyze processes, a firm reasoning for pricing products and services, the ability to analyze operational inputs and outputs, and an understanding of how decisions will be upheld and analyzed.  
My original goals developed in Month 1 were to intensify organizational skills within BI, identify patterns that can be regrouped into habitual processes, and utilize BI technologies to provide insights, and explore software that allows interactive decision tree production to simplify assessments.  While the language in these original goals were not as keen as the language obtained throughout the program, I was able to exceed the expectations in these goals by performing the prescribed activities, following the instructor’s feedback, and applying the material learned throughout the course.  
Overall, this experience should help leverage my presentation skills, research capabilities, communication skills, and process modeling skills as well as develop advanced language found throughout the BI industry.  This is important for my next class - which is Data Visualization and Creative Reporting, and it is also important for my overall proficiency as I develop professional skill sets in Business Intelligence.
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Course 7 - Patterns and Recognition
This month here at Full Sail has been the most challenging so far.  Patterns and Recognition has focused on a holistic review of taking data and performing statistical functions to derive the most use through recognizing patterns within the data.  This has been accomplished from using data in very practical examples.  In one activity, we were prompted to utilize the data for a triathalon to predict how much of a chance the winner of a particular event within the race has when tying in other factors.  Another scenario we were faced with was using data in the restaurant industry to help a friend make an investment decision on selecting a profitable franchise while avoiding franchises that had data that suggested poor performance or uncertainty in the future.  We were then tasked with gauging stock market performances with data.  Last, we were asked to gather data for our Capstone Thesis Project in which we applied Bayes Theorem while uncovering patterns and trends to update our knowledge using concepts we learned in this course.
This course has met my expectations when considering what my targets were in month 1.  In month 1, I provided a few goals as well as a the tactics in reaching these objectives.  Although I did not utilize any concepts with real-time analyses, I did learn a great deal of advanced concepts and build my working knowledge of Search Engine Optimization.
In essence, what I have learned this month will be critical in completing my degree and becoming a professional in the Business Intelligence or data field.  Perhaps the toughest thing to do is make use of limited data.  While in the real world, working for the right company may help give access to tons of data, practicing advanced concepts with limited data at Full Sail opens up the potential to making substantial use of limited data and hones the skills of data professionals because we are challenged to a much higher degree.  I am thankful for everything this course has taught me, and everything Full Sail has taught me throughout the duration of this degree.
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Course 6 - Data Mining
This month’s course at Full Sail University, Data Mining, has stretched my understanding and skill sets in data mining and data visualizations.  In comparison to the perception in my initial Mastery Journal Timeline of the course, all of the goals and expectations were met.  The first goal was to study the frameworks that collectively compose data mining.  Perhaps frameworks was not the best choice of wording; rather, techniques and concepts are more suitable words to describe data mining processes.  The second goal was to probe commonly used algorithms within data sciences that command sets of predetermined executors.  The material within this course gave sufficient linear and statistical expressions - in written and video format - to meet this goal.  However, it was not until the final week that we were instructed to utilize commands within Excel to build a predictive model.  Perhaps applying algorithms and functions each week in a progressive scheme could have added value and a deeper understanding in the course’s entirety.  Nonetheless, sufficient material was provided to grasp the overall theories and applications that compose the data mining field.  Last, the third goal was to explore clustering.  The book in this course, Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques, 3rd Edition, gave an abundance of information concerning the proper way to map out and construct a cluster.  Notably, the previous course in month 5 also abutted on the subject of clustering to a great degree.
Perhaps the most prominent understanding gained from this course was deciphering the data mining capabilities found within the most widely used data platforms or platforms that leverage data mining among many other Business Intelligence applications.  The most remarkable platform that can be learned by non-technical personnel is Tableau.  Its visualization capabilities could be considered insurmountable by many experts, and it is able to connect to almost any data source.  Other data mining tools, such as RapidMiner and Knime, have free versions that are worth trying as opposed to the costly applications found in other renowned applications such as Oracle or Microsoft.  After trying the free version, the weight of a financial commitment could be measured to properly determine whether a healthy ROI would be feasible.  If a healthy ROI is not foreseeable, there is no pressure to continue.  The concepts of predictive modeling algorithms were placed into application in the last week, so the constructs of data mining were explored as well.
Although my career path may not lead me to a position that strictly entails the processes of data mining, the material learned in this course will serve greatly in future courses and throughout my BI career, as data mining is a foundation in predicting patterns and trends.  Applying algorithms to predictive models can always be useful in any industry and corporation.  Utilizing these skill sets can prove to be profitable and adds a layer of proactive thinking that would not be available otherwise.  I can only hope that whatever path I end up choosing, it lands me in the primacy to further enhance my data mining skill sets.  This is especially true as it pertains to learning algorithms for predictive models.
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Mastery Journal - Course 5 (BIA)
In this month’s course, students were prompted to investigate examples of the use of Business Intelligence Analytics in real world examples and formulate decisions and apply analytical thinking to a working company of the student’s choice.  One company that struck a very high chord was Popeye’s Louisiana Kitchen.  With plenty of data and research information to work from, the analytical decisions needed to strategically place this company above its competitors and out of the dangers of dormancy and default proved to be challenging, yet rewarding and insightful.  Understanding the variety of internal and external phenomenons within the restaurant industry that bring about difficulties under pressure and in the steady calm helped to define data, analyze it, and make it useful.
In my original goals and strategies for this class, the first goal was to understand the forces that determine causation and probability variances.  This goal was not only met, but exceeded.  Causation and variances were discussed heavily throughout each week in the training sections.  The second goal was to underline truths found in data while recognizing the difference found in false positives and fake data.  The topic of false positives was mentioned in a Week 1 and Week 2 lecture, and the concept was grasped adequately.  The expectations of recognizing fake data was perhaps actually within reach in a previous course, so this topic had already been resolved.  Last, the third and final goal was to investigate laws surrounding predictive modeling and forecasting.  Much of the rules and concepts surrounding predictive modeling was covered through the use of the Bayesian Analysis and decision trees, while forecasting was a focal point in the final assignment and was a sub-topic explored throughout the month.
This course will help me to continue developing the building blocks in the overall goal of obtaining a wealth of knowledge in the BI field.  This was a much more advanced course than previous ones, and the previous courses helped in the execution of instructions and understanding of the BI language.  Perhaps the most challenging part of this course was the statistics portion of it, but it will certainly help sharpen analytical capabilities moving forward.  The extensive use of Excel and Visio throughout this course was extremely helpful - as future courses will undoubtedly call for crafting visualizations geared towards analytics.
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Conclusion
This month, the Business Intelligence Analytics class at Full Sail was implored to make several assignment submissions and discussions that provided diagrams, flowcharts, spreadsheets, and explanatory writings that conveyed the critical thinking, decision-making under pressure, and analytical composure needed to effectively take on the tasks of being an analyst in today’s business world.  Assignments provided exposure to BI specific concepts and terms through the challenges of data science, market analysis, competition analysis, Bayesian Analysis, decision-making at the CEO level, business process analysis, and forecasts and predictions.  Students were asked to review real world business case scenarios and apply them to a working company that the student was perhaps interested in or one that the student would like to discuss as a Capstone Thesis in the final month of the Business Intelligence program.  Reviewing this material, along with the assignment submissions and exploration of these working companies, helped to carve a foundation for the student in the Business Intelligence realm.
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Process Analysis
The benefits realized from the audiovisual camera capturing gender, ethnicity, and number of passengers (and possibly height/weight estimation when technology is able to) could persuade marketing techniques immensely.  Having these audiovisual features could also aid in developing more sufficient customer service techniques.  Additionally, asking if the customer would like to try the $5 special could help sales.  Also, providing a rewards card to use during purchases could help build a loyal customer base and help Popeye’s obtain a larger market share.  Last, the deals or savings found on the receipts could help retain customers or bring them back at a later date or time.
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Six Sigma
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Total Quality Control (TQC)
The Deming’s 14 Point system is designed to help an organization implement a culture that is focused on establishing quality measures to develop, maintain, and enhance progression as it pertains to controlling quality.  Here are some considerations behind each step:
1.  Popeye’s is driven by the expectations and needs of its customers.  In order to keep the customer first, Popeye’s must centralize its operations on producing quality Cajun food and deliver unparalleled fast food service.  Without doing so, Popeye’s is running an exercise in futility.
2.  When new quality measures and programs are designed, who is supposed to believe in the overall goal of meeting expectations?  The entire company from the executives down to the hourly worker should buy into the idea of creating quality products and services.  That means doing it right every time!
3.  Often, managers feel the need to micromanage every aspect of the operation.  This, of course, becomes more and more inefficient over time because it takes the manager away from the more important matters of the business - such as observing production rates, staying above profit expectations, developing planning schedules, ironing out equipment failures, and so on.  The only true way to implement quality at the subordinate levels is to lead from the front, lead by example, and hold others accountable for their shortcomings.  In this sense, managers relieve themselves of the unduly headaches that come along with poor or neglectful performance levels by providing team members with a list of expectations and what type of reprimand is warranted for which infractions.  This way, less time is spent checking behind every process and more time is spent on quality.
4.  Inasmuch as vertical integration is possible, it should be practiced to the degree that it is possible.  Working with several suppliers can sometimes be beneficial, but do not allow price to be the sole reason for contracting out.  Instead, place quality at the forefront.  And, when feasible, Popeye’s should utilize its own production and distribution services to keep quality practices and measures in house.
5.  Now that the organization has determined what quality measures are to be put in place, it can remain comfortable in knowing that the job is done, right?  On the contrary, quality is a continuous process that buds and blooms more vibrantly with age.  It is common practice with forward-thinking companies to develop quality practices and measures and review them periodically, when things don’t seem to be working out the way they should, or when new, innovative ideas are to be tested.  This way, quality keeps up with the trends of developing technologies and idea-rich minds.
6.  Without training, there is no room for the brain to process techniques.  Sadly, companies that do not require and encourage training can be easily caught in a downward spiral of stagnation, and processes can remain unimproved for an eternity if the workforce is not given the opportunity to expand beyond the horizons of current practices.  It is best for an organization to equip its employees with abundant training resources in order to rejuvenate the minds that work hard to quarterback progressive quality.
7.  Leaders CAN be found ANYWHERE.  The reason why they AREN’T found EVERYWHERE is because they haven’t been developed.  Companies do themselves a great service when establishing mentorships to produce powerful problem solvers for the future.
8.  The most astounding results come at the rejection of fear.  This is simply because where the costs are the steepest, the rewards are the highest.  Usually, humans are susceptible to courage when the cliff has a safety net below it.  However, the cliff without the safety net can sometimes have an invaluable jewel if the motorcycle can land correctly.  Practice caution when there is reason to, but when contingencies are available, go for it!
9.  Too many times and very often, departments do not cohesively work with each other.  Many times, this is because the technicalities within different job fields disallow this opportunity.  Other times, it is simply a matter of employee attitudes and dislikes.  In any case, build pathways between departments and encourage an inviting culture to empower relationships between entities.  The more cohesive each unit is able to become with others, the more flexible and agile the company as a whole becomes.
10.  Do not suggest that the organization’s success falls on the daily practice of verbalizing unimportant mottos or slogans.  It is okay to brand to customers; likewise, it is fine to brand the human resources and employee relations departments in such a fashion that it conveys a vibrant upbeat.  However, resting the success on the shoulders of “We Can Get it Done” and “Why Not Us?” doesn’t carry the spirits necessary to practice quality.  Quality must be practiced by humans, and humans perform quality work because they are rewarded in many forms of compensation.  Slogans are hardly one of them.
11.  Projections are a great way to understand what goals are to be accomplished and track the progress of meeting these goals.  However, these are better reviewed at the highest levels of executive staff.  Managers and the lower-level workforce need not be bothered with numbers, numbers, numbers, and more numbers only to be told that the team is not doing a great job.  Let managers and employees focus on the quality of the work.  In doing so, the quantity of the work will either pan out or go hand-in-hand with quality objectives.
12.  As mentioned in Point 10, humans perform quality work because they are rewarded in many forms of compensation.  These types of compensation vary greatly, but at times, not a single one of these compensations is more important than the other.  Being rewarded can come in many fashions - including raises, bonuses, extra vacation or sick days, being provided a plaque, award, or vocal recognition, among many others.  Rewarding employees for hard work enhances the amount and quality of work they are willing to perform.
13.  Training is one half of the development phase in implementing quality.  The other half of the development phase lies within the reigns of providing the means to help leaders and all other employees develop individually.  Professional development is a tool to enhance the proficiencies and traits needed within each level of the organization.  Teams loved to be recognized for a hard working performance.  Individuals, however, love to be recognized for individual commitment to quality.  And in what better way can this be conquered than by letting the employee know that the company would like to reward him or her by furthering their education and professional knowledge?
14.  Although the individual commitment must be made by everyone to achieve the team effort, the team must work towards its common goals in order to be fully effective.  It can be easy to forget this when people have their own daily lives, commitments, and work aspirations to deal with.  Ensure that stagnancy is not the case when it comes to producing quality results by offering everyone a reminder through actions - and not only words.
Photo Credit:
http://www.foodfindsasia.com/popeyes-vice-president-of-culinary-innovation-talks-about-the-process-of-developing-new-chicken-menu-items/
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/9-step-process-implement-anything-rob-nixon
https://womenofdestinyblog.wordpress.com/2015/02/25/break-free-from-whats-been-broken/
http://www.peoplethink.biz/category/accountability/
https://www.processexcellencenetwork.com/lean-six-sigma-business-transformation/articles/enhance-your-continuous-improvement-capability
http://www.informationmapping.com/en/
http://www.wheel.ie/leadership
https://anthonyuu.wordpress.com/2017/04/30/courage/
http://www.mcmillan.net.au/blog-news-updates/tips-for-team-cohesion/
https://www.pinterest.com/pin/147774431503502067/
http://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/Giant-House-Numbers-Fabricated-Steel-Numbers-Signs-Digits-12-inch-in-Size-/271387866349
http://femgineer.com/2014/09/take-pride-in-your-work/
https://www.susanadamspsychotherapist.com/self-improvement-therapy-atlanta-counseling/
http://www.agentarrange.com/theteam.asp
https://www.kijiji.ca/b-jobs/gta-greater-toronto-area/popeyes/k0c45l1700272
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Total Quality Control (TQC)
In this diagram, Popeye’s aims to convey what steps should be taken to improve its processes.  Data should be collected in as much and throughout as much of the operations as possible.  Particularly, operational processes, employee training, food quality, food safety, customer satisfaction, and cleanliness of equipment and facilities are all areas that Popeye’s should focus on.  Operational processes refer to the “gears” and “switches” that help Popeye’s to go from wanting to deliver product to customers to actually delivering product to customers, including:  logistics, administration (such as payroll, human resources, etc.), restaurant management, brand management, finance, investor relations, and marketing & advertising.  A deeper analysis of Popeye’s TQC is taken using Deming’s 14 Points in the next slide.
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Risk Analysis:
Calculations are fabricated and used with the intent to portray possibilities in the marketplace for Popeye’s if marketing strategies were to stay the same or change.  EMV= Expected Monetary Value.
Photo Credit:
https://www.nytimes.com/2014/08/04/business/popeyes-offers-chicken-with-its-own-playlist.html
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Forecast Analysis
In 2007, Popeye’s Louisiana Kitchen was facing adversity in a battle to keep the brand profitable for its franchisees (Gutierrez, 2007).  At the time, the restaurant had just received its 2006 financial reports and had been surprised at a 3.4% decrease across same-store sales - which was down from a 6.1% increase from the previous year.  Of course, Popeye’s made a huge turnaround after hiring Cheryl Bacheldor as CEO and focusing more on the marketing initiatives, branding, and menu innovations.  In fact, even in the midst of the mid-2000′s turmoil, the acting CEO of AFC promoted the ideas of these initiatives to franchisees in an attempt to bring assurance in the brand’s keepsake.  Had Popeye’s not addressed these issues, a steady decrease of 3.4% each year, as depicted in the previous visualization, would have led to a mass-closure across the entire Popeye’s units.  
In 2012, Popeye’s was able to average sales of $2,253,000 per store (Oches, 2013).  Considering that Popeye’s does not reveal the average profit of its stores (n.d.), let’s assume that the average annual cost to run a Popeye’s is $1.5 million dollars, and the rest of the sales for the year result in profit.  Let’s also assume that this is also the average sale per store in 2016.  This profit, of course, would only be possible after operational and overhead costs have been subtracted from annual store sales.  Some of the possible overhead costs to keep in mind are “advertising, depreciation of assets, indirect labor, mortgage, equipment and structure repair, supplies unrelated to food and drink, utility, property taxes, license fees, and local taxes” (Grayson, n.d.).  Operational costs may include “labor, cost of goods sold, marketing,occupancy expenses, repairs and maintenance, and administrative costs” (Redman, n.d.).  If, after deducting the average expenses from the annual sales on the previous forecast chart, the net profit for the average store were to be observed, then 2016 would see an average of $753,000 in profit.  However, if the store declined at a consistent rate of 3.4% each year for ten more years, then 2026 would see only $95,000.  By 2028, the average Popeye’s store would not profit anything and would, in fact, fall in debt.  Luckily, Popeye’s focused its attention on improving its perception among the public through honed marketing campaigns and an fresh, new menu.  
References:
Grayson, L. (n.d.). How to figure out restaurant overhead. Chron. Retrieved on August 27, 2017 from http://smallbusiness.chron.com/figure-out-restaurant-overhead-40513.html
Gutierrez, C. (2007). Popeyes chicken operator needs spinach. Forbes. Retrieved on August 27, 2017 from https://www.forbes.com/2007/06/01/afc-share-drop-markets-equity_cx_cg_0601markets20.html
Oches, S. (2013). The QSR 50. QSR. Retrieved on August 27, 2017 from https://www.qsrmagazine.com/reports/qsr50-2013-top-50-chart
Redman, B. (n.d.). Examples of expenses for a restaurant business. Chron. Retrieved on August 27, 2017 from http://smallbusiness.chron.com/examples-expenses-restaurant-business-23491.html
(n.d.). Franchising FAQ. Popeyes. Retrieved on August 27, 2017 from http://company.popeyes.com/franchise/international/faqs/
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Forecast Analysis
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Risk Analysis
Note in the previous visualization that there is a bubble representation of possible risks for Popeye’s entering into a global market.  This is not an exhaustive representation, but there are some main ideas that must be identified when considering global expansion.  “Cyber Security” (Cascone & Larson, 2016), “Legal, Human Resources, Supply Chain, and Political factors” (n.d.) are just a few of the many threats that exist in such an international market - each with its own subset of potential problems. 
Also, consider the Quantitative Risk Assessment matrix.  This can be used to identify the seriousness of a potential problem and applying a probability factor to understand the possible frequency of each infraction occurring.  As an example, the probability that there will be a supply chain breakdown due to a missed pickup, a late arrival, or severe weather conditions could be suggested as very high - or a 5.  However, the impact that this would cause on Popeye’s operations would probably be very low - or a 5.  Depending on what type of freight that is being moved, the impact may be higher.  For example, if a distribution truck is scheduled to deliver deep fryers to a store that has had all of its deep fryers break down in the last 24 hours and is now unable to serve chicken, the impact would be very high - or a 25.  The impact would be somewhere in the middle if the store were operating on three fryers, with no contingency back-up fryers in immediate possession, and against a standard operating procedure that calls for three fryers.  However, the scenario could be much more harmful.  For example, a cyber security failure that released the name and credit card information of customers would be very unlikely to happen, or a 1 on the probability scale.  Although this would not likely happen, the effects it would have on Popeye’s if it were to occur would be grave and unforgiving - or a 25. 
References:
Cascone, J. & Larson, B. (2016). Restaurants’ evolving business models leave them vulnerable to cyber risks. The Wall Street Journal. Retrieved on August 20, 2017 from http://deloitte.wsj.com/cfo/2016/11/10/restaurants-evolving-business-models-leave-them-vulnerable-to-cyber-risks/
(n.d.). International expansion poses wide range of risks for food and beverage companies. Marsh. Retrieved on August 20, 2017 from https://www.marsh.com/us/insights/research/international-expansion-poses-risks-for-food-beverage-companies.html
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