callhimgamblor-blog

[callhimgamblor-blog]

We have a lot to talk about...... 

[callhimgamblor-blog]

Maths and Reality for the Lottoland haters

39%

That is all you need to remember when playing Lottoland. That and the fact you aren’t actually buying a lottery ticket although I think, by now, you would need to be pretty dim to not realise that.

I play US Power on Lottoland as for $10 it gives me a chance to win hundreds of millions of dollars. Something that no land based offers in Australia. I do, however, go in with my eyes wide open. I see the headline numbers and I know that isn’t what I am actually playing for. Here is some maths.

The headline number on the site RIGHT NOW (20th August 2017) is $675 MILLION!!!

The Lottoland small print isn’t actually all that small and it pretty much spelt out for you at the bottom of nearly every page.

Lottoland keeps 35% as a commission. OK.

Lottoland employs the same payout methods as the US lottery it is taking bets on. That is, payout as a lump sum is 60% of total value.

1 x 0.65 x 0.6 = 0.39 or 39%

So. 675000000 x 0.39 = $263250000. NOT BAD!

The difference between me and many others I guess is that I read the rules and small print and know this number before I place my bet. I know that my $10 is actually to return about $263 million, not the headline figure. You know what else!? I’m fine with that!

The odds of winning the US Powerball lottery are stated at 1 in 292,201,338. I know I am not getting this return and I am still OK with that. The odds of buying a ticket for the US Powerball lottery from Australia is 0. It cannot be done. 

Lottoland isn’t a scam. It is a business. If my numbers come in and I win the “Lottoland US Power” for $263000000 I will not be crying foul! I will be popping champagne and house hunting.

If you go in with your eyes open then you will not be surprised.

[callhimgamblor-blog]

Gold, the calm after the storm and "Just bad luck"?

So here we are, the 2nd of December and here I am, a GoldStar VIP! :-D

Of course, getting there was just mental. I have never played so hard for so long just to get VPPs. On Friday evening I played 1400 hands in just under 3 hours. That is 500 hands an hour or 8 hands a minute or one hand every 7 seconds.... for nearly 3 hours straight..... at 0.25/0.50 stakes.

I likened it to earning SilverStar in one day and I very nearly did it stopping about 100vpp short on Friday evening. The benefit of clearing it that night would have been getting into the $100k freeroll on the Saturday evening (The 30th) but I knew I would still have a chance. 

As an aside I am a family man and have a very busy life outside of poker so I don't get to play until 7:30pm earliest. This gave me 45 minutes on sitting down Saturday evening to earn the remaining points to clear GoldStar in time to reg the freeroll.

Long story short, I cleared GoldStar at 8:23pm Saturday evening. ~8 minutes after late reg stopped for the $100k. Just bad luck?

Maybe.

Last night was double vision Sunday. One of the side effects of going for GoldStar was a mountain of FPPs so I played (and won) a 210fpp satellite into the Storm and bought 700fpp tickets for the other storm and the bigger 11. Felt good to be basically free rolling.

Two things as the end to this blog post isn't all that exciting 

Playing 1 hand every two minutes feels utterly bizarre after Friday evening.

I ultimately busted 2100th or something out of nearly 50000 people in the Storm for +$48.

Not great, but certainly not bad either.

December will be very quiet now. A couple of evenings to clear SilverStar as per normal and then some tournaments at the end of the month.

Oh. The December GoldStar $100k freeroll is on Saturday 28th and I will be busy with a massive family bun fight so I can't play that one either!! 

Just Bad Luck!

[callhimgamblor-blog]

GoldStar? Let's see shall we....

Because I have been playing a lot this month at reasonable stakes my monthly VPP count is actually doing pretty well. The shame is that I have only noticed this with 4 days to go to the end of the month. I have ~600 VPPs to get in 4 days. One of those is tonight and I am out so not playing. Another is "date night" so I will not be playing. That leaves two evenings.

I have the roll to commit to 4 full buy ins on Arp before I need to pull back a bit so it looks like Friday and Saturday evening I will be two tabling Arp on ZOOM until the job is done. I have done four tables before but I don't want to be too out of control. What I may do if I hit my high stop on one is hop off  that one and step up to Omega Centauri for a bit. Its all about the FPP winrate.

That means that on Sunday evening (The 1st) I can enjoy the two Sunday Storms and Bigger 11 without worrying about grinding the cash.

All things being well I shouldn't need all four buy ins.... Of course.

Then in December I can enjoy the spoils of GoldStar VIP baby! :-D

[callhimgamblor-blog]

Challenge Accepted.

As November drifts towards December and 2013 drifts towards 2014 a couple of things have been bought into focus. My current VIP Stellar Awards bonus status and my annual VPP total.

As things stand I am SilverStar as always.

I have 3050 out of 5000 VPP for my next ($50) stellar bonus. 

Clearing 5000 VPP would also mean I clear 10000VPP for the year.

Clearing the above will also make me a GoldStar VIP going into 2014.

My roll is currently on a bit of a high so I am going to step up to Omega Centauri (0.50/1) ZOOM on Sunday and see where the tide takes me. The FPP win rate at that level means the bonus should appear quicker. 

Of course, I am coming off the back of my most successful month to date where I have earned ~2000 VPPs so I need to go back to back to complete my challenge. 

It will be nice to be a GoldStar though.... :-)

[callhimgamblor-blog]

Zoom mentaility II

I have been playing on Arp (0.25/0.50 zoom) some more this week and I thought I would write a little more about hand selection and pre/post flop strategy.

After Daniel Negreanu's video earlier this week warning people against playing 'standard' poker it is interesting to see non-standard plays working really REALLY well on zoom.

I think the vast majority of players on Arp and above are regular players. You don't get many chancers sitting down with $50 day in day out. That said, I imagine most of them know and mark/identify the other regs. I know I do. It is very obvious to me with a nice bright pink ring when another reg is on the table. 

Outlining Arp "Standard Play" (In my opinion)

Agression is still the winner on Arp. People fold a LOT of hands and are uber aggressive with most reasonable start hands. That is, 3 betting pre. I have been successful by simply identifying the spots where a 3 bet wlll work and even a 4-bet pre sometimes.

Fear gets to a lot of people on Arp I think. People need to remember that the vast majority of players on Arp play "standard" poker.

AQs. Raise pre. Miss flop. C-bet anyway. MAYBE bet missed turn too.

Imagine calling them (in position) with 67s

Flop comes K74r. 

By the turn the pot is going to be around $8 and worth winning. A lot of players will check-fold the turn when called on this flop though and that is winning me a lot of money. Having the balls to call a turn bet and bet to a checked river is also winning at the mo. 

I guess I am finding myself thinking about how he would play it if he DID have a K or a set and the answer is that although the action would be similar the bet sizing would be different and the time taken to act would be different. Of course, this is a tactic I, and other players, are also adopting.

Imagine you are in late position, raise and get called by a player in the blinds. Imagine the flop comes down all rainbow and raggy and instead of insta-checking the blinds player takes 15 seconds and then checks and THEN raises your (predictable) C-bet. You're gonna fold.

Another good one that is working at the mo is the proverbial "Donk bet".

You are in the SB, say, and you have 68s and you call a late position raise. You hit middle or bottom pair on a rainbow board. Nearly everyone is expecting you to check but I am finding a lot of people FOLDING to a half pot bet. People seem to just not know what to do when they raise and then get bet into.

Of course. A bit of it is luck too. Calling C-bets and hitting your second pair on the turn is always nice. 

Interestingly, the old staple of "sets win prizes" may still be true but I can honestly say that in my last 4 sessions (Where I am up ~3.5 BI) I have not yet hit 1 set.

Grind on. :-)

[callhimgamblor-blog]

Zoom mentality.

As my hand count goes ever upwards I am noticing the pre-flop decisions changing a LOT between zoom poker (at the level I play) and your standard MTT (which I also play)

A little information first.

Arp is ridiculously aggressive. Like isildur1 aggressive and if you're not prepared for it you will be eaten alive. Of course, knowing it is like that you can adjust and I think this is why I am now finding success.

AQ is shite

This may count in MTT too but it CERTAINLY counts on Arp. I am currently probably folding it PRE flop unless it is suited. Basically, if you play it as normal for Arp i.e. Aggro then you will probably loose money unless you flop the Q. If you hit the A - in my experience - you are probably behind on Arp. AK is actually near the BOTTOM of the premium hand range that I play AQ and AJ need to be suited. AT and less I need to be on the bubble too and be calling a single raise.

Generally action on any given hand will be a 2.5-3x raise followed by some guy 3 betting to $3.50-$4. So if I am sat with ATs on the button and it comes to me asking for $4 to call they are getting mucked.

The way to make money on ZOOM poker is to STEAL blinds and initial raises with 3 bets and play and hit raggy two pair and sets. You can quote me on that. I am more likely to play 78cc than AQo. 

Of course, that is where the element of luck comes in. If you can play 300-400 hands in a single table session then the likelihood is that you will hit some sets and have a couple of opportunities with AA,KK,QQ. Of course, then you need to find some guy willing to ship the lot with AQo or chase a gut shot... 

Of course, variance is always going to happen and I have given and received some pretty sick beats on ZOOM. Best one recently was $35 AIP with AKs and flushing AA for the win. 

That reminds me of one of my favourite quotes from the poker videos I have watched over the summer. On seeing a similar situation the guy with AA says "How many flush draws you got? Just one huh... I got two."

[callhimgamblor-blog]

Flop action...

As a player on ZOOM poker I see a LOT of pre/post flop action and there is a couple of points to be made as I have identified and plugged a leak in my game. 

In short, I was floating too many flop bets with just two overs.

Picture the scene... You are dealt KcQc in mid position and you call a raise to 3x from early position (EP).The flop comes down as a raggy rainbow and EP C-bets two thirds pot. Totally standard.

In terms of money....

EP (XxXx) raise to $1.50

MP (KcQc) calls $1.50

Flop ($3.75) - 4c 7h 9s

EP bets $2.50

MP.............................????

You see, this is the issue. If I call here I am basically saying "I have two overs, I know you do too. If I hit you're in trouble," - but what I am also saying is - "I have two overs. If paint hits the turn your probably in trouble and should check fold seeing I called your C-bet."

Now then. To call would be to put $4 (8x) in a pot where I simply have two overs. Not great. Yes, in position but EP has the betting lead and is almost certainly bombing any turn less than a ten.

So you can't fold as that is too weak on a raggy flop. You can't call (really) as it is not mathematically a profitable play. Raising is an option but polarises your hand somewhat so you better hope he folds or you had better be prepared to throw more money in on pretty much any turn with your two overs... Risky.

What about raising pre?

Same situation....

EP (XxXx) raise to $1.50

MP (KcQc) raises to $4

EP (XxXx) calls 

Flop ($8.75) - 4c 7h 9s

EP checks

MP.............................????

By calling pre he is stating that he has a strong hand - A good ace or probably 88-JJ.. More would 4-bet, less would fold. Crucially, we have reached the same point in the hand but you appear far stronger, have the betting lead and can put the player to a decision.

By 3 betting pre YOU are stating that you have a very good ace or a strong pocket pair 99-AA

With that in mind he is probably on check-fold mode when shown a raggy flop and so a C-bet of ~$5 will probably take it down with your two overs....

As for the leak. Calling a raise pre with a speculative hand - mid suited connectors  for example - and then floating a flop where I know I am behind and HAVE to hit to win. That is what has been nipped in the bud.

Thoughts/Comments welcome.

"The Dyer".

[callhimgamblor-blog]

More target updates.

Was feeling rubbish yesterday so I decided that I wouldn't play yesterday evening. Obviously that means that I DID play and ended up setting fire to ~$100 from the roll. Nasty but, lukily thanks to some bank roll management, handleable.

Anyway, without further ado.

Targets were:

21 VPPs - $10 bonus

164 VPPs - $7.19 bonus (The rest of the reload)

246 VPPs - $50 bonus (VIP Stellar)

322.29 - SilverStar clear for October.

Now on 1571.05 FPPs so VIP live is a go.

Updated:

$10 bonus cleared. Now on 477/543 VPP total to clear the rest of the reload bonus. So...

66 VPPs - $7.19 bonus (The rest of the reload)

852/1000 - 148 VPPs - $50 bonus (VIP Stellar)

224.64 VPPs - SilverStar clear for October.

Now on 1717.55 FPPs.

Clearing VIP live with the boss and her mother tomorrow so should be able to book that now (and still have plenty of FPP change for the VIP $30k on Saturday evening)

[callhimgamblor-blog]

September targets - Update.

The targets WERE:

199 VPPs - $10 bonus

342 VPPs - $7.19 bonus (The rest of the reload)

423 VPPs - $50 bonus (VIP Stellar)

500 VPPs - SilverStar clear for October.

1500 FPPs - VIP Club Live ticket

Updated:

21 VPPs - $10 bonus

164 VPPs - $7.19 bonus (The rest of the reload)

246 VPPs - $50 bonus (VIP Stellar)

322.29 - SilverStar clear for October.

Now on 1571.05 FPPs so VIP live is a go.

[callhimgamblor-blog]

Targets - September.

Got a few different FPP/VPP targets for this month as I appear to be within touching distance of several different ones.

First some facts. 

Current FPPs - 1304.40

VIP Stellar rewards status 577/1000 VPPs ($50 bonus)

Monthly VPPs (September) - 0 (Not started yet...)

Reload Bonus Clearance status 201/543 VPP ($10 collected @ 200 - Next release of $10 at 400 then the rest on completion.

VIP Status - Silver Star. Nailed for September. Need 500 to clear to October.

So. The targets. In order. All from 0 (Now)

199 VPPs - $10 bonus

342 VPPs - $7.19 bonus (The rest of the reload)

423 VPPs - $50 bonus (VIP Stellar)

500 VPPs - SilverStar clear for October.

Of course. With that I will also be able to buy my ticket to the VIP Live in London event which is happening November 26th. 1500FPPs for SilverStar. Free bar you say? Yup. Thanks.

[callhimgamblor-blog]

Silver Arp + VIP Live...

Middle of this month I gave up on clearing SilverStar this month. I had 10 days away on holiday and then another weekend away (Albeit at a poker festival) so finding time to grind the poker wasn't going to be easy. Of course, I forgot just how fast FPPs stack up when you step up a little in the blinds. I normally play in "Whirlpool" which is 0.10/0.25 zoom. "Arp" is 0.25/0.50 and the FPPs fly in. Also, the profit is there to be made if you have the self control to play TAG. What I have learnt with ZOOM is there is simply NO NEED to bluff. 3 bet pre sure, but betting air hands is very rarely necessary. Anyway. Long story short, On Wednesday (28th) I still needed ~300vpps to clear Silver and here I am today (30th) having done it. The roll is looking ok ($90) and now I have to sit on my hands for a couple of days until the new month rolls around. 

Also now got 1350FPPs stored up ready to buy my "VIP LIVE" ticket for when that party comes to London town in November.

[callhimgamblor-blog]

Three hands from the Goliath weekend.

AKA, The good, the bad and the ugly.

The good

In the cash game. Got dealt AA and got two streets of value prior to shipping the river. Although he was pot committed by then he still managed to fold Top top on the J high non flushing non straightening board although I guess by then it was just a bluff catcher (hence the shove). It was worth +£50 anyway.

The bad

In the tournament. The more I think about this the worse it is, We are in level 8 so late-reg/re-entry is done and gone. I am down to 16x which, at the time, feels rubbish but, in retrospect, is actually not so bad. Especially seeing players grinding much MUCH smaller stacks late into the evening. I get dealt AQcc under the gun and make it 2k to go at 400/800/100. It folds around to the button who ships her big stack. I call and she has JJo. They hold (Although I did flop the flush draw) and that's me out. I told myself "Meh, you gotta win the races" but I think it is a race I could have just avoided if I had thought about it for a second or two.

The ugly

In the cash game. Talked about this hand a fair bit after but I am just glad he folded and I got away with it. I am UTG+1 and get dealt JcJd. I have a stack of ~£230 and we are playing £1/£2 NLH. 

I raise to £7 (Table standard)

Folds to MP player who 3 bets to £20 (Also standard)

Folds back to me. 1 minute tank then 4 bet to £50. As far as I remember this is the only hand in a 5 hour session where there was a 4 bet pre.

MP tanks for 3 or 4 minutes prior to throwing in a call.

Flop comes down 3h4h6h. (£103)

After a 2 minute think I ship my remaining £180. I have MP covered by ~£50. I then assume a hellmuthian position. Cap and sunnies in place, leaning on fists covering mouth.

A full ~10 minute tank later he folds his QdQs stating that he put me on AA, KK or AK with one heart. 

All in all, a great weekend in Coventry. Same again next year!

Tom.

[callhimgamblor-blog]

184

More zoom. Hit silver star last night and started playing 0.25/0.50 this morning.... Roll has padding now.

[callhimgamblor-blog]

Zoom

Cheeky 30 mins. +$30. Zoom is so nice when the tired/drunk/donkey players are around and the cards are behaving. Nearly at silver now. Looking forward to the freerolls. Roll ~$105

[callhimgamblor-blog]

Poker sites/roll/plan

Full Tilt - 0 - miniFTOPS soon....

Pokerstars - $55 - ZOOM + Sunday grind

PKR - 0 - No plan

GCasino - £140 - Goliath satellites 

[callhimgamblor-blog]

Poker sites/usernames

Full Tilt - kruelintent

PokerStars - The Dyer

PKR - kruelintent

GCasino - D0NKEY