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Israel should try first, then US should act

President Trump has postponed a decision on the bunker buster question for two weeks. With him, that often means no decision at all. But the two weeks provide time for negotiations. That is a good thing. The Europeans are wisely trying to take advantage of the opportunity, so far without results. It is still reasonable to ask whether the US should or should not act against the deeply buried…

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Bunker buster or not, that's the question

The Israelis have succeeded in sucking Donald Trump into their war with the Middle East. He is already saying “we” when referring to Israel’s successes in destroying Iran’s air defenses. “We” are also threatening to kill the Supreme Leader. This talk is inappropriate, and the Israeli war was ill-advised. More diplomacy was in order. But still there is a big question out there. The…

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Careful what you wish for

The Balkans are aflutter because President Trump mentioned the region. He apparently said on his social media platform: During my first term, Serbia and Kosovo were in a fierce dispute, as they have been for decades, and this long-standing conflict was ready to escalate into war. I stopped it. Biden damaged the long-term chances with some very stupid decisions, but I will fix it again. This is…

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It doesn't sound quite right

Netanyahu to ABC: "Elimination of Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei is not going to escalate the conflict — it's going to end the conflict."Didn’t he say the exact same thing about Saddam Hussein? pic.twitter.com/wPCAJuFsw9— Ihab Hassan (@IhabHassane) June 16, 2025 Israel has established control over Iran’s airspace and is now attacking at will. But it has not yet destroyed either of Iran’s main…

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Incoherence is not healthy

Donald Trump’s birthday military parade fizzled yesterday. Attendance was low, energy was lower, and organization was poor. “No Kings” protests boomed. A couple of thousand demonstrations in all parts of the US attracted easily more than a million peaceful protesters. Energy was high and organization superb. We are going in the right direction. Trump has been underwater and mostly sinking in the…

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Diplomacy needed to restore security for all

If you haven’t seen it already, the interviews above with Wendy Sherman and Vali Nasr strike me as eminently level headed. Bottom lines: negotiations no longer, regime change unlikely, more and escalating war, Iran will press ahead to get nuclear weapons. Regional implications They don’t deal with the regional implications, except for mentioning Saudi denunciation of Israel for the attack on…

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Trump caused this Israeli war with Iran

Tonight’s Israeli attack on Iran is not a one-time thing. Nor is it a matter of days, as the press is reporting. Assuming the Islamic Republic stays in place, this attack will encourage Iran to try to develop nuclear weapons. Tehran will think that will make it immune. Israel will need to attack repeatedly over months and years to prevent that. Iran will respond in kind. The consequences for…

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Violence in this good cause is not good

Donald Trump is gleeful. He has mobilized the California National Guard to repress violent anti-Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) demonstrations in Los Angeles. This will cause more violence, which is what Trump and his bile-filled adviser Stephen Miller want. Their effort to round up and deport immigrants has flagged. The LA violence gives them an excuse to use military force against…

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Israel in Gaza: illegal, immoral, unwise

Former Israeli PM Ehud Olmert tells @biannagolodryga why he thinks Israel is now committing war crimes in Gaza. pic.twitter.com/goEgTbne3N— Alex Marquardt (@MarquardtA) May 27, 2025 So many have written so much about Gaza that I’ve hesitated. What is there to say that adds value or insight? But the situation requires at least a brief remark. Illegal Israel is withholding humanitarian aid,…

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Nuclear Iran – facts, goals and opportunity 

Former IAEA Safeguards Inspector Dr. Pantelis Ikonomou writes: In May 2018, then President Trump withdrew the US from the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).  Today, Iran is much closer to possible acquisition of nuclear weapons than at that time. Facts The fourth round of nuclear negotiations between the US and Iran was recently completed. Their continuation will convene soon. …

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Winning the war with equanimity

As I prepare to leave Kyiv Wednesday, here are notes on issues not covered in my earlier posts. Or where I would like to amend previous statements. The posts in question are First Impressions, Culture, Religion and Education, Ukraine’s Strengths and Weaknesses, and Ukraine’s Opportunities and Threats. Culinary delights Kyiv’s restaurants are really good and cheap for those who live on dollars…

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Ukraine's opportunities and threats

Based on proceedings at the Kyiv Security Forum, I’ve already tried to summarize Ukraine’s strengths and weaknesses. Here are some opportunities and threats. Opportunities still abound The West still has opportunities to improve Ukraine’s position vis-a-vis Russia, which responds only to actions (not just words): Strengthen sanctions, including secondary sanctions against firms doing business…

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Ukraine's strengths and weaknesses

The Kyiv Security Forum last Thursday and Friday was a crash course in Ukraine’s strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats. Here I’ll do the strengths and weaknesses. I’ve already reported on other aspects of my experience here in Kyiv. Unity and commitment are gaining advantage Ukrainians, according to Rasumkov Centre surveys, believe in victory. But my conversations suggest that there…

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Culture, religion, and education in Ukraine

I’ve had a chance now to sample–in tiny doses–Kyiv’s cultural, religious, and educational institutions. Some would be impressive even without the war. But conflict makes it doubly difficult to keep high standards. Money is short and people have other things to think about. We shouldn’t expect world class museums, performances, and universities. When we find them, they merit not only praise but…

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First impressions of a peaceful Kyiv at war

I arrived in Kyiv after 10 pm Saturday night, after the 12-hour train ride from Chelm, Poland and the 3.5-hour train ride from Warsaw. It wasn’t an entirely auspicious arrival. The driver who was supposed to meet me showed up late and the train arrived early. Only a Polish acquaintance with whom I shared a cabin on the train saved the night. His Ukrainian girlfriend got in touch with the driver.…

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Heading for Kyiv, thinking about post-war

I’m traveling to Kyiv this week to give presentations at the Kyiv School of Economics on preparing for post-war transition. I don’t think that is likely soon. But whenever it happens, I hope readiness for it will improve the prospects of success. I’ll also be trying to understand how Ukrainians are thinking about the war and prospects for peace. That is in preparation for the revision of my 2019…

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A Passover for the Palestinians

Tonight is the first Passover Seder. Jews around the world will gather with family, friends, and community to commemorate liberation. It is not clear from which ancient Egyptian Pharaoh. But that doesn’t really matter. It is even unclear whether the Jews were ever in Egypt, never mind as slaves. Passover is a universal story of liberation, adopted by many different people of many different…