emilkalinowski-blog

[emilkalinowski-blog]

US Consumer price increases can be attributed to three things: 1) oil/gasoline, 2) vehicles, and 3) Uncle Sam's double-rotor stimmy-stimmy helicopter. (Not included? The Fed's QE #6 - yes, #6.)

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Inflation! Isn't it crazy when someone says, 'This is a consumer price increase, but not [monetary] inflation; so don't blame the Fed's QE for this.' In this clip @JeffSnider_AIP notes two sectors are to blame. Watch the full video for more: https://youtu.be/fPWSbO7uCEs

[emilkalinowski-blog]

Watch the Harry Houdini of Macro attempt to escape out of '6.8% YoY increase in consumer prices is not "inflation"' box! No key! In a safe! Submerged underwater! Is it a semantic trick? Is it dark magik!?  Watch the full escape (or macabre death!): https://youtu.be/fPWSbO7uCEs

[emilkalinowski-blog]

Lucky in cards? Then unlucky in love. At least that's @EmilKalinowski's experience. Similarly, if you're unlucky in monetary policy (Federal Reserve begins QE6 taper), you may be lucky in public relations (consumer price increases are decelerating) to frame the mistake as a win.

[emilkalinowski-blog]

The #Fed has to taper faster because consumer prices (i.e. motor fuel, automobiles) rose faster than it expected. It didn't have the moxie to stare down the CPI increase and explain why QE (i.e. 'money') had nothing to do with CPI. Maybe they're not really a central (money) bank.

[emilkalinowski-blog]

The #Fed is decelerating USA-QE6 (not to be confused with JPN-QE25) not because there's too much money but because #ConsumerPrices have surged. Yet, CPI does not always mean (monetary) inflation. And so, the Fed's reducing 'money supply' due to a supply-demand imbalance! Wha? Why?

[emilkalinowski-blog]

America's central bank—and possibly the center of the monetary universe—the #FederalReserve has announced that it intends to decelerate its sixth #QE program (yes, six in 13 years). Woo! Orthodox Economics is jacked to the TIPS! (…but not @JeffSnider_AIP).

[emilkalinowski-blog]

If economics was anything like a scientific endeavor - and not an ideology (a cult?) - then the Silent Depression would have been solved by now. Instead the profession blames us! The workers, the consumers, businesses, et cetera for not doing it right.

[emilkalinowski-blog]

The economics profession is supposed to look at data with disinterest and extrapolate therefrom. Is that what they do? Or do they first presume that monetary policy is effective and extrapolate and explain away from that implicit assumption (never made explicit)?

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Economists and policymakers are selective in their appreciation of consumer sentiment. On inflation? Lock it in! But if consumers say inconvenient things about wages, consumption and macroeconomic outlooks well then, pfft...

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Deus forbid economists and policymakers take workers and consumers at their word that the economy is lousy. Those mouthbreathers?! Deus forbid I tell you!

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‘Economists and policymakers need new data tools to reconcile gloomy consumers (bad) with surging consumption (good),' says a FT column. Huh! Consumers are gloomy because they've seen the present economic context four times already in the last 14 year.

[emilkalinowski-blog]

‘Consumer sentiment in the US is at 10-year lows (U. of Mich.) because they don't know how to react to price increases,' says a FT column. Huh! Consumers have handled previous price surges (e.g. 2008, 2011, 2018). Maybe they're glum because the economy itself is gloomy.

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Consumer demand for goods has been fantastic! Consumer demand for service has been abysmal. Combine the two and consumer spending is off trend, off the pre-plague normal--such as it was.

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The relationship between US Job Openings and Job Hires was stable enough 2000-13 but the third eurodollar crisis (2014-16) decoupled the two stats. The fourth crisis (2018-20) exacerbated the problem. And today? Bonkers. Bananas. It's two different worlds.

[emilkalinowski-blog]

The Eurodollar futures' curve inversion is not an isolated warning amidst a sea of plenty. We discuss the US Treasury yield curve's shape and how it corroborates the story spun by Eurodollar futures.

[emilkalinowski-blog]

The Eurodollar futures curve dipped its toe into inversion on Dec-01. What about since? Has it downed a glass of Scotch, sloughed off any inhibition and enthusiastically skinny-dipped into the pool? CANNONBALL!! (Jeff says, 'No, it still has its clothes on; well, most of them.')