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[fantasystatter]

A Look at WR Production in their First 4 Years

  Points 300 240 200 160 80 Would Be Last Season WR4 WR14 WR28 WR45 WR96 PPG 18.75 15 12.5 10 5

    First, I looked into how often all players reached a certain number of yards,

  Rookie (312) 2nd Year (278) 3rd Year (250) 4th Year (217) 1000+ Yards 9 (2.9%) 26 (9.4%) 18 (7.2%) 10 (4.6%) 900+ Yards 16 (5.1%) 32 (11.5%) 21 (8.4%) 16 (7.4%) 750+ Yards 28 (9.0%) 42 (15.1%) 36 (14.4%) 27 (12.4%) 500+ Yards 67 (21.5%) 70 (25.2%) 60 (24.0%) 45 (20.7%) 250+ Yards 112 (35.9%) 111 (39.9%) 94 (37.6%) 71 (32.7%) Any Yards 221 (70.8%) 194 (69.8%) 156 (62.4%) 118 (54.4%)

  Next, I looked every WR's points,

  1st Year 2nd Year 3rd Year 4th Year 300+ (18.75PPG) 0 (0.0%) 2 (0.9%) 5 (2.6%) 1 (0.6%) 240+ (15PPG) 4 (1.3%) 13 (5.8%) 14 (7.2%) 5 (3.2%) 200+ (12.5PPG) 15 (4.8%) 28 (12.6%) 18 (9.3%) 16 (10.2%) 160+ (10PPG) 31 (9.9%) 48 (21.5%) 39 (20.1%) 27 (17.2%) 80+ (5PPG) 84 (26.9%) 94 (42.2%) 79 (40.7%) 56 (35.7%) Any 223 (71.5%) 194 (87.0%) 157 (80.9%) 117 (74.5%)

Now where things start to get useful. I looked at all 1st rounders point outputs (The four rookies who didn't score positive points their first year were Perriman, White, Jenkins and Ross).

  1st Year 2nd Year 3rd Year 4th Year 300+ (18.75PPG) 0 (0.0%) 1 (3.0%) 3 (10.0%) 0 (0.0%) 240+ (15PPG) 3 (8.1%) 4 (12.1%) 6 (20.0%) 1 (3.6%) 200+ (12.5PPG) 9 (24.3%) 10 (30.3%) 7 (23.3%) 5 (17.9%) 160+ (10PPG) 12 (32.4%) 15 (45.5%) 13 (43.3%) 9 (32.1%) 80+ (5PPG) 25 (67.6%) 23 (69.7%) 21 (70.0%) 16 (57.1%) Any 33 (89.2%) 30 (90.9%) 28 (93.3%) 22 (78.6%)

  2nd Rounders (the player over 300 is Allen Robinson Year 2 then Michael Thomas 3 and 4),

  1st Year 2nd Year 3rd Year 4th Year 300+ (18.75PPG) 0 (0.0%) 1 (2.1%) 1 (2.4%) 1 (3.3%) 240+ (15PPG) 1 (2.1%) 8 (16.7%) 3 (7.3%) 3 (10.0%) 200+ (12.5PPG) 4 (8.3%) 11 (22.9%) 6 (14.6%) 7 (23.3%) 160+ (10PPG) 11 (22.9%) 15 (31.3%) 13 (31.7%) 9 (30.0%) 80+ (5PPG) 29 (60.4%) 28 (58.3%) 22 (53.7%) 15 (50.0%) Any 48 (100.0%) 41 (85.4%) 30 (73.2%) 22 (73.3%)

  3rd Rounders

  1st Year 2nd Year 3rd Year 4th Year 300+ (18.75PPG) 0 (0.0%) 0 (0.0%) 0 (0.0%) 0 (0.0%) 240+ (15PPG) 0 (0.0%) 0 (0.0%) 4 (12.5%) 0 (0.0%) 200+ (12.5PPG) 1 (2.6%) 6 (16.7%) 4 (12.5%) 3 (11.1%) 160+ (10PPG) 6 (15.4%) 9 (25.0%) 7 (21.9%) 4 (14.8%) 80+ (5PPG) 13 (33.3%) 20 (55.6%) 18 (56.3%) 8 (29.6%) Any 36 (92.3%) 32 (88.9%) 27 (84.4%) 19 (70.4%)

  4th to 7th Rounders

  1st Year 2nd Year 3rd Year 4th Year 300+ (18.75PPG) 0 (0.0%) 0 (0.0%) 1 (1.1%) 0 (0.0%) 240+ (15PPG) 0 (0.0%) 1 (0.9%) 1 (1.1%) 1 (1.4%) 200+ (12.5PPG) 1 (0.5%) 1 (0.9%) 1 (1.1%) 1 (1.4%) 160+ (10PPG) 2 (1.1%) 9 (8.5%) 6 (6.6%) 5 (6.9%) 80+ (5PPG) 17 (9.0%) 23 (21.7%) 18 (19.8%) 17 (23.6%) Any 106 (56.4%) 91 (85.8%) 72 (79.1%) 54 (75.0%)

  Finally, I wanted to look at how players improved from year to year. I only looked at players that scored 50+ the year before, and those that scored 0 points the next year to reduce outliers. (2nd to 3rd year is highly influenced by Boyds huge 291% jump. Without him, the average is -6%)

  1st to 2nd 2nd to 3rd 3rd to 4th 1st Round 28% -10% -7% 2nd Round 20% 6% 2% 3rd Round 26% -7% -39% 4th to 7th 15% -8% -1% All 22% -5% -5%

The average was influenced heavily by high big changers, so I calculated the % of players who improved year to year. 50% is if the same amount of people improved and Closer to 100% means more players improved, less means less.

  1st to 2nd 2nd to 3rd 3rd to 4th 1st Round 71% 29% 32% 2nd Round 59% 38% 45% 3rd Round 74% 45% 6% 4th to 7th 50% 32% 43% All 63% 36% 33%

I thought this might just be for players who didn't preform well/efficient, so I did the same for high performers (players who scored 240+ points then 160+ points) Clearly this wasn't the case.

  1st to 2nd 2nd to 3rd 3rd to 4th 240+ 67% 27% 8% 160+ 64% 27% 21%

  So I thought this might be because of injury, so I calculated the % of players who improved year to year who played the same amount of games both years. My sample is really low, so it's not a good measurement on its own, but it shows it's not due to injury

1st to 2nd 2nd to 3rd 3rd to 4th 79% 50% 42%

  Additional Information

Justin Jefferson and CeeDee Lamb were the two highest scoring 1st round rookies from 2015-2020. Odell is the highest scoring rookie of the 10 years. 2014 was a crazy year with Odell, Evans, and Benjamin all scored 200+ points(Watkins scored 196)

  Take Aways

WRs get a BIG boost from year 1 to 2 then tend to decrease as time goes on.

It's not worth drafting 4th-7th rounders unless they have already broken out at any point in their careers.

3rd Rounders COMPLETELY fall off in their 4th year, and I have no idea why.

2nd rounders in my original post pulled away from 1st rounders, but it seems to have leveled off with the additional 4 rounds.

    Spreadsheet here

Original Reddit Post

[fantasystatter]

A Look at QB's Drafted in the first round from 2010-2019

THIS IS NOT A RAITINGS POST. THE RAITINGS JUST NEED TO BE CLOSE AND ARE NOT PERFECT

I took a look at 10 years of QB's drafted in the 1st round to see what I could learn from them. I'm interested in two main things.

How often are teams successful in getting a franchise QB?

Are good teams more successful in drafting franchise QBs?  

  I took all 30 QBs drafted in the first round between 2010-2019 (10 years) and

assigned them a rating from 1 to 10, 1 being absolutely horrible, 5 being league average, and 10 being a likely HOFer.

Checked if they have a pro bowl (or multiple)

Checked to see if they are still starting or not

Checked the Win % of the team that drafted them for the 3 years before the QB was drafted.

  Key: Year (Year Drafted), Team(Team that Drafted them), Pro Bowl(If they made a pro bowl), Still Starting(If they are still playing for the team they were drafted to), Rating(How I rate their entire career to this point), Win % (The average win % of the team that drafted him for the 3 years BEFORE he was drafted)

  Year Team Player Pro Bowl Still Starting Rating Win % 2017 Kansas City Chiefs Patrick Mahomes Y Y 10 67% 2018 Baltimore Ravens Lamar Jackson Y Y 8 46% 2017 Houston Texans Deshaun Watson Y N 8 56% 2018 Buffalo Bills Josh Allen Y Y 7 50% 2011 Carolina Panthers Cam Newton Y N 7 46% 2019 Arizona Cardinals Kyler Murray Y Y 7 38% 2012 Indianapolis Colts Andrew Luck Y N 7 54% 2012 Miami Dolphins Ryan Tannehill Y N 6 42% 2010 St. Louis Rams Sam Bradford N N 6 13% 2018 Cleveland Browns Baker Mayfield N Y 6 8% 2016 Philadelphia Eagles Carson Wentz Y N 6 56% 2016 Los Angeles Rams Jared Goff Y N 5 42% 2019 New York Giants Daniel Jones N Y 4 40% 2014 Minnesota Vikings Teddy Bridgewater Y N 4 38% 2018 New York Jets Sam Darnold N N 3 42% 2010 Denver Broncos Tim Tebow N N 3 48% 2011 Jacksonville Jaguars Blaine Gabbert N N 3 42% 2013 Buffalo Bills EJ Manuel N N 3 33% 2012 Washington Redskins Robert Griffin III Y N 3 31% 2015 Tennessee Titans Marcus Mariota N N 3 31% 2017 Chicago Bears Mitchell Trubisky Y N 3 29% 2015 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Jameis Winston Y N 3 27% 2014 Jacksonville Jaguars Blake Bortles N N 3 23% 2019 Washington Redskins Dwayne Haskins N N 2 44% 2012 Cleveland Browns Brandon Weeden N N 2 29% 2014 Cleveland Browns Johnny Manziel N N 2 27% 2011 Minnesota Vikings Christian Ponder N N 2 58% 2011 Tennessee Titans Jake Locker N N 2 56% 2016 Denver Broncos Paxton Lynch N N 1 77% 2018 Arizona Cardinals Josh Rosen N N 1 58%

  Of the 30 QBs drafted

14 have at least 1 Pro Bowl [47%]

8 are still with their original game [27%]

8 were drafted by a "good team" with an average winning record the 3 years before drafting them [27%]

1 were drafted by a team with an average .500 record the 3 years before drafting them [3%]

21 were drafted by a "bad team" with an average losing record the 3 years before drafting them [70%]

7 I rated a 7 or above [23%]

12 I rated a 5 or above [40%]

18 I rated a 4 or lower [60%]

6 I rated a 2 or lower [20%]

4 of the 8 players [50%] drafted by "good teams" had a rating of 5 or above

7 of the 21 [33%] players drafted by "bad teams" had a rating of 5 or above

  TLDR: Teams in general have a 40% chance of drafting an average or better QB in the first round. "Good teams" have better odds of drafting an average or better QB then "bad teams"

  Original Reddit Post

[fantasystatter]

A look at What Makes a TE1 and An Attempt to Find Potential Breakouts

Hey guys, I desperately need a TE, so I decided to try to figure out what has made a TE1 in previous seasons to try to predict what TE's could break out.

  Here are the average(of the 3 years) of the Top 3, Top 6, Bottom 6, Bottom 3 TE's as well as the total average of all top 12 TE's over the past 3 years.

  TGTS REC PCT YDS TD FPTS Top 3 8.5 6.1 72% 75 0.44 16.3 Top 6 7.5 5.3 71% 63 0.47 14.5 Bottom 6 5.5 3.7 67% 42 0.31 9.8 Bottom 3 5.6 3.7 66% 40 0.27 9.2 Total 6.5 4.5 69% 53 0.39 12.1

  Below are the TE's who have met or exceeded an above "stat" (except catch PCT, and FPTS) for each average

Top 3 [8 TEs]

All 4 Kelce TGTS & REC Waller TD Gronkowski, Hockenson, Schultz, Thomas, Knox, Johnson

  Top 6 [8 TEs]

All 4 Kelce TGTS & REC & YDS Waller TD & REC Gronkowski, Hockenson TD Schultz, Thomas, Knox, Johnson

  Total [11 TEs]

All 4 Kelce, Gronkowski, Hockenson TGTS & REC & YDS Waller REC & YDS Kittle REC & TD Schultz YDS Andrews TGTS Geskicki TD Thomas, Knox, Johnson

  Bottom 6 [13 TEs] (Removed TD as a Single TD puts you above the average)

All 3 Kelce, Gronkowski, Hockenson, Waller, Kittle, Andrews, Gesicki REC, & YDS Schultz TGTS & REC Fant TGTS & YDS Pitts REC Thomas & Conklin YDS Goedert

  Bottom 3 [13 TEs] (The only difference is Conklin gained YDS)

All 3 Kelce, Gronkowski, Hockenson, Waller, Kittle, Andrews, Gesicki REC, & YDS Schultz, Conklin TGTS & REC Fant TGTS & YDS Pitts REC Thomas YDS Goedert

  Whats that All Mean?

Kelce, Gronkowski, Hockenson are studs (But you knew that)

Waller, Kittle, Andrews, Gesicki have all the stats but TDs.

Conklin, Fant, Pitts are all getting low TE1 numbers in 2 of the 3 "important" stats. Conklin and Fant also low TE1 numbers in TDs

Schultz's crazy 93% catch percentage is higher than any TE1 in the past 3 years. It's 12.6% higher then the #2 (81%) catch percentage of all TE1s over the past 3 years. Though using that 81% catch percentage would give him an average of 4.0 receptions per game which is still low TE1 numbers.

Only 5/36 (13.8%) of TE1s over the past 3 years have had under 5 targets per game. Only 1 has under 4 targets per game.

Original Reddit Post

[fantasystatter]

A Look at What Makes a "Good" Weekly Score for each Position

  First I wanted to look at the weekly rank averaged over the entire season at each weekly rank. So for example I took the WR1 each of the 17 weeks and averaged their score. This didn't tell the entire story, so I also averaged them just over the weeks with 4 teams on BYE (BYE), and averaged the weeks when there were under 4 weekly byes (NOT BYE).

  Here are the numbers for QBs, RBs, and WRs

  QB  QB  QB RB  RB  RB WR  WR  WR Rank AVG BYE Not BYE AVG BYE Not BYE AVG BYE Not BYE 1 35.2 34.1 36.2 38.0 35.7 39.7 38.5 38.7 36.3 2 32.6 31.9 33.3 30.4 28.3 31.4 33.2 33.0 33.1 3 30.1 29.1 31.4 26.0 23.2 28.0 29.7 28.7 30.6 4 28.9 28.3 29.7 25.2 22.3 27.3 27.5 26.8 28.0 5 27.4 27.1 28.0 23.6 20.8 25.6 26.6 25.9 27.0 6 25.9 26.1 26.4 22.6 19.7 24.6 25.3 24.8 25.6 7 24.7 24.6 25.4 21.6 19.0 23.2 24.3 23.9 24.5 8 24.0 23.9 24.6 20.6 18.2 22.2 23.6 23.2 23.8 9 23.1 22.9 23.8 19.5 17.5 21.3 22.8 22.6 22.9 10 22.3 21.7 23.1 19.0 17.2 20.5 21.8 21.8 22.0 11 21.6 20.7 22.6 18.3 16.6 19.7 21.3 21.4 21.4 12 20.8 19.9 21.7 17.8 16.1 19.1 20.8 21.1 20.7 13 20.0 19.2 20.8 17.1 15.6 18.2 20.2 20.3 20.2 14 19.5 18.9 20.3 16.5 15.2 17.4 19.7 19.7 19.8 15 18.7 18.0 19.4 15.8 14.5 17.0 19.3 19.4 19.4 16 18.1 17.5 18.8 15.5 14.3 16.5 18.9 18.8 19.0 17 17.5 16.5 18.6 14.7 13.7 15.6 18.4 18.5 18.5 18 16.8 15.9 17.8 14.3 13.4 15.2 18.0 18.0 18.1 19 16.0 15.1 16.8 13.8 13.1 14.6 17.5 17.3 17.7 20 15.1 13.9 16.3 13.4 12.7 14.1 17.1 16.9 17.3 21 14.7 13.3 15.9 13.0 12.3 13.6 16.8 16.5 17.0 22 14.2 12.7 15.6 12.5 11.8 13.1 16.4 16.1 16.6 23 13.0 11.2 14.7 12.0 11.4 12.5 15.9 15.6 16.2 24 12.0 9.8 14.1 11.6 10.9 12.3 15.7 15.4 15.8 25 11.1 8.7 13.2 11.3 10.5 12.0 15.4 15.2 15.5 26 10.3 7.5 12.7 10.8 10.1 11.5 15.0 14.8 15.1 27 9.7 6.8 12.1 10.5 9.9 11.0 14.5 14.1 14.8 28 8.7 5.4 11.4 10.2 9.5 10.8 14.2 13.9 14.4 29 7.6 4.3 10.2 9.8 9.2 10.4 14.0 13.8 14.1 30 6.3 2.7 9.1 9.4 8.7 10.0 13.8 13.5 14.0 31 5.0 1.4 7.8 9.1 8.4 9.8 13.5 13.3 13.7 32 3.8 0.6 6.2 8.7 8.0 9.4 13.3 13.1 13.5 33 3.0 0.4 4.8 8.4 7.7 9.1 13.0 12.9 13.2 34 2.0 0.3 2.6 8.2 7.5 8.9 12.8 12.7 12.9 35 1.6   1.6 7.9 7.1 8.7 12.4 12.4 12.6 36 1.4   1.6 7.7 6.9 8.4 12.1 12.0 12.4 37 1.6   1.6 7.4 6.6 8.1 11.8 11.6 12.1 38 0.9   0.9 7.1 6.4 7.8 11.6 11.3 12.0 39 0.7   0.7 6.8 6.0 7.6 11.4 11.1 11.8 40 0.2   0.2 6.6 5.8 7.3 11.2 10.9 11.6 41 0.1   0.1 6.4 5.5 7.2 11.0 10.7 11.4 42       6.2 5.4 6.9 10.8 10.5 11.0 43       6.0 5.1 6.7 10.5 10.3 10.7 44       5.7 4.9 6.4 10.2 9.9 10.5 45       5.4 4.6 6.0 10.0 9.8 10.2 46       5.2 4.5 5.8 9.8 9.6 9.9 47       5.1 4.3 5.8 9.6 9.5 9.8 48       4.9 4.2 5.5 9.4 9.3 9.6 49       4.7 4.0 5.3 9.2 9.1 9.3 50       4.5 3.6 5.1 8.9 8.5 9.2 51       4.3 3.5 4.9 8.7 8.2 9.1 52       4.1 3.3 4.7 8.6 8.0 9.1 53       3.9 3.1 4.4 8.5 7.9 8.9 54       3.7 3.0 4.3 8.3 7.8 8.7 55       3.6 2.9 4.1 8.1 7.5 8.6 56       3.3 2.6 3.9 7.9 7.4 8.4 57       3.1 2.3 3.7 7.8 7.3 8.2 58       3.0 2.2 3.6 7.6 7.1 8.1 59       2.9 2.1 3.4 7.5 6.9 8.1 60       2.7 1.9 3.3 7.4 6.7 7.9

  Here are the numbers for TEs, Ks, and DSTs

  TE     K     DST     Rank AVG BYE Not BYE AVG BYE Not BYE AVG BYE Not BYE 1 26.6 23.2 29.9 18.0 18.9 17.0 21.1 20.6 20.8 2 21.7 18.7 24.4 15.6 16.6 15.0 16.2 16.1 15.9 3 19.0 17.2 20.6 14.5 14.9 14.3 14.6 15.1 13.9 4 17.7 16.3 18.8 13.4 13.7 13.2 13.1 14.0 12.0 5 16.2 15.1 17.1 12.6 12.9 12.6 12.1 12.7 11.3 6 15.1 14.1 15.9 11.9 12.0 12.0 10.7 10.7 10.2 7 14.2 13.0 15.2 11.5 11.7 11.3 9.5 8.9 9.4 8 13.2 12.5 13.7 10.9 11.0 11.0 8.8 8.1 8.8 9 12.8 11.9 13.3 10.1 9.7 10.4 8.2 7.3 8.3 10 12.2 11.4 12.6 9.8 9.6 9.9 7.5 6.9 7.3 11 11.6 10.7 12.0 9.7 9.6 9.8 6.8 6.1 6.9 12 11.0 10.0 11.5 9.3 9.3 9.2 6.1 5.6 6.2 13 10.4 9.5 11.0 8.8 8.9 8.6 5.8 5.1 6.0 14 10.1 9.2 10.7 8.4 8.1 8.3 5.6 4.9 5.8 15 9.8 8.9 10.4 8.2 8.0 8.1 5.4 4.7 5.4 16 9.3 8.3 10.0 7.6 7.3 7.8 5.1 4.3 5.2 17 8.9 8.0 9.5 7.3 6.9 7.4 4.6 4.0 4.7 18 8.4 7.6 9.1 6.8 6.3 7.0 4.1 3.7 4.0 19 8.0 7.2 8.8 6.4 6.0 6.6 3.6 3.1 3.8 20 7.8 7.0 8.5 6.0 5.4 6.4 3.2 2.9 3.3 21 7.4 6.6 8.1 5.5 5.0 5.8 2.8 2.6 2.7 22 7.1 6.3 7.8 5.2 5.0 5.2 2.5 2.0 2.7 23 6.8 6.0 7.6 4.9 4.6 5.1 2.1 1.6 2.2 24 6.5 5.8 7.1 4.5 4.0 4.8 1.6 0.7 2.0 25 6.1 5.4 6.7 4.0 3.4 4.3 1.2 0.3 1.6 26 5.5 5.0 6.0 3.5 3.0 3.7 0.8 0.1 1.1 27 5.1 4.6 5.7 2.9 2.3 3.2 0.3 0.0 0.4 28 4.9 4.3 5.5 2.2 1.3 2.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 29 4.7 4.2 5.2 2.4   2.3 -0.4 -0.3 -0.6 30 4.6 4.1 5.1 1.9   1.8 -0.8 -0.9 -0.8 31 4.3 3.8 4.9 1.6   1.5 -1.9 -2.0 -1.7 32 4.1 3.6 4.7 1.1   1.0 -3.1 -3.1 -3.0

  The other way to look at it would be how much you need to score on average over 16 weeks to finish at each rank. So for example, a quarterback would need to score on average 25.3 points and play 16 games to be the season's QB1

  Rank QBs RBs WRs TE K DST 1 25.3 23.6 22.4 19.6 10.8 9.4 2 24.4 21.1 20.6 17.4 10.5 9.3 3 24.2 20.8 20.5 11.0 9.8 9.1 4 23.8 16.6 18.0 11.0 9.7 8.8 5 23.5 16.2 17.6 11.0 9.6 8.8 6 23.3 15.8 17.1 10.6 9.4 7.9 7 21.9 15.7 17.0 10.0 9.1 7.8 8 21.9 14.5 16.6 9.3 9.1 7.4 9 21.4 14.0 16.4 9.3 8.7 7.3 10 21.4 13.7 15.9 9.3 8.6 6.8 11 20.0 13.0 15.5 9.2 8.5 6.6 12 18.3 12.9 15.5 9.1 8.4 6.6 13 17.6 12.6 15.3 9.0 8.4 6.4 14 17.3 12.4 15.3 8.9 8.3 6.4 15 16.9 12.1 14.8 8.8 8.3 6.3 16 16.8 12.0 14.6 8.8 8.1 6.2 17 16.0 12.0 14.5 8.0 8.0 6.1 18 15.8 11.9 14.2 8.0 7.7 5.9 19 15.8 11.7 14.0 7.8 7.5 5.6 20 15.7 11.6 14.0 7.3 7.5 5.5 21 13.5 11.2 13.9 7.1 7.4 4.8 22 13.3 11.0 13.6 6.2 7.3 4.6 23 12.3 10.7 13.4 6.1 6.9 4.6 24 11.9 10.5 13.3 5.8 6.6 4.5 25   10.5 13.2       26   10.3 13.0       27   10.3 13.0       28   10.3 12.2       29   10.2 12.0       30   9.9 12.0       31   9.0 11.9       32   8.9 11.8       33   8.5 11.8       34   8.5 11.6       35   8.3 11.5       36   8.1 11.4       37   8.0 11.3       38   7.9 10.8       39   7.9 10.8       40   7.8 10.4       41   7.6 10.3       42   7.3 10.3       43   6.8 10.2       44   6.7 10.1       45   6.4 9.9       46   6.4 9.8       47   6.3 9.7       48   6.2 9.6      

  Having both shows some interesting things. For example a WR could score on average 10th every week and end up as a WR1. Mike Davis for example has scored 11.75 points on average. That's RB24 any given week, but if sustained would end him up as the RB18.

  This is in part due to injuries (only 22% of the top 36 RBs played all 16 games, and only 81% played 13 or more games) and in part due to how difficult it is to score big points every week.

  TL;DR: Don't worry if your player isn't scoring top numbers every week. You don't need to consistently score big to finish the season big.

  Original Reddit Post

[fantasystatter]

How Last Year's Surprise First 2 Week Top Scorers Ended Up

We're at the point in the year when everyone is hyping up players who had a great week 1 and 2, and debating how they will end up.

  Keep in mind this is data from one year, and is only a small sample and 2 weeks instead of 1. For example, just because no RBs who were Boom picks and drafted as a RB3 finished outside a RB3 dosen't mean it won't happen this year.

  Here are the WR's who Boomed the first 2 weeks and finished as a WR3 or better

Rank Player Points Finish Draft 1 Calvin Ridley 47.8 4 25 3 D.K. Metcalf 30.7 5 26 4 Stefon Diggs 29.9 3 24 5 Robby Anderson 28.4 27 60 12 Terry McLaurin 24.6 23 27 20 Corey Davis 19.7 29 75

  Here are the WR's who Boomed the first 2 weeks and finished as a WR4 or worse.

Rank Player Points Finish Draft 9 John Brown 27.2 76 (38) 33 10 Julian Edelman 25.9 110 (53) 36 11 Darius Slayton 25.5 56 45 15 Keelan Cole Sr. 22.5 49 100 16 Russell Gage 22 40 73 16 Marquez Valdes-Scantling 22 44 94

  Here are the RB's who Boomed in the first 2 weeks and finished as a RB3 or better

Rank Player Points Finish Draft 9 Kareem Hunt 30.2 10 33 6 Raheem Mostert 37.8 47 (12) 26 12 James Robinson 27 7 59 12 Melvin Gordon III 27 13 34

  Here are the RB's who Boomed in the first 2 weeks and finished as a RB4 or worse

Rank Player Points Finish Draft 11 Malcolm Brown 27.7 45 60 18 Jerick McKinnon 24.1 40 65 20 Joshua Kelley 23.3 63 57

      Key Rank The rank they finished in the first 2 weeks respective of their position. Player Player's Name Points How much they scored the first 2 weeks Finish The rank they finished the season with respective to their position (number in parentheses is how they would have finished if they completed a full season. Only used for players who missed 3 or more games) Draft How they were ranked pre season

  Key Points

2/6 of the WR's and 1/4 of the RBs drafted outside the top 36 of their position last year ended up as a WR3/RB3 or better

4/6 of the WR's and 3/3 of the RB's drafted inside the top 36 of their position last year ended up as a WR3/RB3 or better

  If anyone knows of any hype posts for any players listed, from the first 2 weeks of the 2020 season, let me know. I'll add them to my post. Ones I found myself are already linked.

  Original Reddit Post

[fantasystatter]

A Quick Look at RB Injury Risks

  Below are the Pre-Season rankings last year for RB's and how many games they played.

  I did the top 30 RBs then Removed Bell, because of his fiasco, and added #31 Aikers to account for his removal. I only did 30 to help account for healthy scratches, but still get a large sample.

Rank Name GMS 1 Christian McCaffrey 3 2 Clyde Edwards-Helaire 13 3 Miles Sanders 12 4 Josh Jacobs 15 5 Nick Chubb 12 6 Kenyan Drake 15 8 Todd Gurley II 15 9 Chris Carson 12 10 James Conner 13 11 Leonard Fournette 13 12 Saquon Barkley 2 13 Melvin Gordon III 15 14 Mark Ingram II 11 15 Kareem Hunt 16 16 Tarik Cohen 3 17 David Johnson 12 18 Raheem Mostert 8 19 Jonathan Taylor 15 20 D'Andre Swift 13 21 Devin Singletary 16 22 Matt Breida 12 23 Ezekiel Elliott 15 24 James White 14 25 Alvin Kamara 15 26 Aaron Jones 14 27 Dalvin Cook 14 28 Derrick Henry 16 29 Joe Mixon 6 30 Austin Ekeler 10 31 Cam Akers 12

  Here are the odds of any single player missing x games

Games Played Amount Percent 16 3 10% 15 7 23% 14 3 10% 13 4 13% 12 6 20% 11 1 3% Under 10 6 20% 11-13 12 36% 14+ 13 43%

  Here are the odds of any single player missing a range of games

Games Played Amount Percent 14+ 13 43% 11-13 12 37% Under 10 6 20%

  Here are the odds, of your players playing missing less then 3 games if you have 3 viable starters

No Players Going Down 18.5% 1 Player Going Down 41.9% 2 Players Going Down 31.6% All 3 Players Going Down 8.0%

  Here are the odds, of your players playing missing less then 3 games if you have 2 viable starters

No Players Going Down 32.5% 1 Player Going Down 49% Both Players Going Down 18.5%

  Though it's important to keep in mind that these are not the odds they go down at the same time.

  Original Reddit Post

[fantasystatter]

A Look at 2020 RB Floors

  All numbers are projected to a full 16 games, even if they played less.

  Here are the top 60, the rest can be found on my Full Spreadsheet Here

  Rank Player 6 * 10 * 15 * 20 * 25 * 30 * 35 * 1 Dalvin Cook 16 16 15 9 7 2 2 2 Alvin Kamara 16 15 14 10 5 4 3 3 Derrick Henry 15 12 11 7 6 4 4 4 James Robinson 16 16 8 6 3 2 0 5 Aaron Jones 16 15 9 5 1 1 1 6 Nick Chubb 13 13 11 5 3 0 0 7 David Montgomery 15 13 9 7 4 0 0 8 Austin Ekeler 14 13 10 5 2 2 0 9 Jonathan Taylor 14 12 10 3 2 2 1 10 Chris Carson 15 13 8 4 1 0 0 11 Myles Gaskin 16 14 6 3 2 2 0 12 Ezekiel Elliott 15 11 9 4 1 0 0 13 David Johnson 15 13 7 4 1 0 0 14 D'Andre Swift 14 12 7 4 2 0 0 15 Josh Jacobs 15 12 5 5 2 1 1 16 Joe Mixon 16 11 5 3 3 3 3 17 Melvin Gordon III 13 11 7 3 1 0 0 18 Ronald Jones II 14 11 7 2 1 0 0 19 Antonio Gibson 15 10 6 3 1 1 1 20 Mike Davis 15 9 6 4 2 0 0 21 Miles Sanders 15 11 5 4 1 0 0 22 James Conner 12 11 7 2 0 0 0 23 Clyde Edwards-Helaire 15 12 5 2 0 0 0 24 Kareem Hunt 14 9 6 2 1 0 0 25 Salvon Ahmed 11 11 5 3 0 0 0 26 Kenyan Drake 14 10 4 2 1 0 0 27 Nyheim Hines 13 9 4 3 2 0 0 28 Jeff Wilson Jr. 9 7 5 5 3 1 0 29 J.D. McKissic 13 8 5 2 1 0 0 30 Raheem Mostert 14 8 4 2 2 0 0 31 Todd Gurley II 11 7 4 2 1 0 0 32 Chase Edmonds 11 8 4 2 0 0 0 33 Leonard Fournette 9 7 5 2 1 0 0 34 J.K. Dobbins 12 9 3 1 1 0 0 35 Rex Burkhead 10 5 5 3 2 2 0 36 Giovani Bernard 11 5 4 4 0 0 0 37 Darrell Henderson 10 5 4 2 0 0 0 38 Damien Harris 13 8 2 0 0 0 0 39 Devin Singletary 11 7 3 0 0 0 0 40 Wayne Gallman 10 7 3 0 0 0 0 41 Latavius Murray 11 5 2 2 1 0 0 42 Cam Akers 11 5 3 1 0 0 0 43 Sony Michel 11 4 4 2 0 0 0 44 Kalen Ballage 10 6 3 0 0 0 0 45 Jamaal Williams 9 5 3 1 0 0 0 46 Jerick McKinnon 7 6 3 1 0 0 0 47 Carlos Hyde 8 5 3 0 0 0 0 48 Zack Moss 9 6 1 1 0 0 0 49 James White 10 6 1 0 0 0 0 50 Justin Jackson 7 7 2 0 0 0 0 51 Duke Johnson Jr. 10 3 3 0 0 0 0 52 Adrian Peterson 8 5 2 0 0 0 0 53 Gus Edwards 11 4 1 0 0 0 0 54 Alexander Mattison 6 4 2 1 1 0 0 55 Tony Pollard 8 4 1 1 1 1 0 56 Frank Gore 10 4 1 0 0 0 0 57 Malcolm Brown 5 4 2 1 1 0 0 58 Phillip Lindsay 7 3 1 0 0 0 0 59 Boston Scott 8 2 1 0 0 0 0 60 Brian Hill 6 2 2 0 0 0 0

Take Aways

I'm not projecting next year, this is only last year's data, which may be helpful for projecting next year.

Christian McCafery would have finished in a tier of his own as expected (though there are many problems projecting 3 to 16 games, which is why he wasn't included)

Huge drop-offs in constancy, especially when you compare them to WRs which were more linear. The main drop offs were RB #2(122) to #3(102), #3(102) to #4(94), #30(54) to 31(48)

Joe Mixon is one of 5 players to score 40+ points, and he did it 3 times, more then any other player

  The Math

The formula for ranking their consistency was I took every stat, divided it by their games played then multiplied it by 16.

[ ({15+}*3) + ({10+}*2) + ({6+ & 20+}*1.5) + ({25+ & 30+}*1) + ({35+}*0.5) + ({40+}*0.25) ]

I wanted to weigh the odds of them getting 15+ points really high, while keeping my formula relevant for lower tier players, while also factoring in their boom potential slightly to sort similar players. I added in this time their total season score divided by a really small amount in order to differentiate the players who had the same score reaaaly far down in my rankings. If you have ideas to improve the rankings, I'd love to hear them.

  Original Reddit Post

[fantasystatter]

A Look at 2020 WR Floors

  All numbers are projected to a full 16 games, even if they played less.

  Here are the top 60, the rest can be found on my Full Spreadsheet Here

  Rank Player 6+ 10+ 15+ 20+ 25+ 30+ 35+ 40+ 1 Davante Adams 16 15 13 9 7 7 3 3 2 Tyreek Hill 15 15 13 7 5 2 1 1 3 Stefon Diggs 16 16 12 7 5 1 1 1 4 Calvin Ridley 15 14 12 5 4 2 0 0 5 A.J. Brown 15 13 10 8 3 1 0 0 6 DeAndre Hopkins 16 13 9 8 4 1 0 0 7 Will Fuller V 15 13 10 6 1 1 1 0 8 Keenan Allen 15 13 9 7 3 2 0 0 9 Allen Robinson II 15 14 8 6 3 0 0 0 10 Julio Jones 12 11 11 5 2 2 0 0 11 Amari Cooper 13 13 10 3 1 1 0 0 12 Chris Godwin 15 12 9 3 1 1 0 0 13 Adam Thielen 14 10 7 7 4 2 0 0 14 Mike Evans 14 11 9 4 2 1 1 1 15 Brandon Aiyuk 13 11 9 7 0 0 0 0 16 Justin Jefferson 13 10 8 6 4 2 1 0 17 D.K. Metcalf 13 12 8 4 3 1 1 1 18 Robert Woods 15 10 8 4 2 1 0 0 19 Terry McLaurin 13 13 7 4 1 0 0 0 20 JuJu Smith-Schuster 13 11 9 4 0 0 0 0 21 Diontae Johnson 13 11 7 6 1 0 0 0 22 Robby Anderson 15 12 8 1 1 0 0 0 23 Jamison Crowder 13 11 7 5 3 0 0 0 24 Corey Davis 13 11 7 3 2 1 1 0 25 CeeDee Lamb 15 11 7 3 1 0 0 0 26 Brandin Cooks 13 12 5 4 3 2 1 0 27 Tyler Lockett 14 9 6 4 3 3 2 1 28 Curtis Samuel 14 10 7 4 1 0 0 0 29 D.J. Moore 15 10 7 3 1 0 0 0 30 Cooper Kupp 15 12 5 3 2 0 0 0 31 Chase Claypool 12 9 7 3 1 1 1 1 32 Sterling Shepard 13 11 5 3 1 1 0 0 33 Antonio Brown 14 10 4 4 2 2 2 0 34 Tyler Boyd 13 10 6 3 1 0 0 0 35 Marvin Jones Jr. 13 9 5 4 3 1 1 0 36 Cole Beasley 14 10 5 3 2 0 0 0 37 Tee Higgins 13 10 6 3 0 0 0 0 38 Jarvis Landry 14 10 5 2 1 0 0 0 39 Emmanuel Sanders 13 11 5 2 0 0 0 0 40 DeVante Parker 14 9 6 1 0 0 0 0 41 Russell Gage 11 9 6 2 1 0 0 0 42 John Brown 11 9 7 0 0 0 0 0 43 Marquise Brown 13 9 5 1 0 0 0 0 44 Nelson Agholor 12 8 4 4 1 0 0 0 45 Deebo Samuel 11 9 5 2 0 0 0 0 46 Laviska Shenault Jr. 14 9 3 1 0 0 0 0 47 D.J. Chark Jr. 12 7 4 2 2 0 0 0 48 Odell Beckham Jr. 9 7 5 2 2 2 2 0 49 Jakobi Meyers 11 8 5 1 1 0 0 0 50 Tim Patrick 13 9 3 2 0 0 0 0 51 Keke Coutee 12 8 4 2 0 0 0 0 52 Tyron Johnson 14 7 5 0 0 0 0 0 53 Michael Gallup 11 7 3 3 2 1 0 0 54 Christian Kirk 11 7 3 3 0 0 0 0 55 T.Y. Hilton 12 6 3 2 2 0 0 0 56 Mike Williams 9 6 4 3 1 0 0 0 57 Marquez Valdes-Scantling 10 5 5 2 0 0 0 0 58 Jerry Jeudy 11 8 2 2 2 0 0 0 59 Keelan Cole Sr. 9 6 5 2 0 0 0 0 60 Randall Cobb 11 8 3 0 0 0 0 0

Take Aways

I'm not projecting next year, this is only last year's data, which may be helpful for projecting next year.

No one scored 20+, 25+, 30+, 35+, or 40+ points more times then Davante Adams. He was as consistent on the lower numbers, but had HUGE boom potential.

After Adams there were no "Huge Jumps" Like TE and QB, everything went pretty uniform, except a small jump from #9 to #10.

The Math

The formula for ranking their consistency was I took every stat divided it by their games played then multiplied it by 16.

[ ({15+}*3) + ({10+}*2) + ({6+ & 20+}*1.5) + ({25+ & 30+}*1) + ({35+}*0.5) + ({40+}*0.25) ]

I wanted to weigh the odds of them getting 15+ points really high, while keeping my formula relevant for lower tier players, while also factoring in their boom potential slightly to sort similar players. I added in this time their total season score divided by a really small amount in order to differentiate the players who had the same score reaaaly far down in my rankings. If you have ideas to improve the rankings I'd love to hear them.

  Original Reddit Post

[fantasystatter]

A Look at 2020 QB Floors

  All numbers are projected to a full 16 games, even if they played less.

  Rank Player 15+ 20+ 25+ 30+ 35+ 1 Rodgers 15 13 9 2 0 2 Mahomes 15 12 7 4 2 3 Murray 14 11 8 4 2 4 Allen 15 9 9 6 2 5 Watson 14 11 5 3 0 6 Herbert 14 11 5 2 1 7 Wilson 13 10 5 3 1 8 Jackson 13 10 6 1 0 9 Brady 11 9 5 4 1 10 Tannehill 13 7 6 2 1 11 Cousins 12 8 2 1 0 12 Carr 10 8 1 1 0 13 Fitzpatrick 11 7 2 0 0 14 Rothlisberger 11 5 3 0 0 15 Brees 11 7 0 0 0 16 Ryan 9 6 3 1 0 17 Newton 10 5 3 2 1 18 Burrow 11 5 2 2 0 19 Stafford 11 5 1 0 0 20 Wentz 8 5 3 0 0 21 Goff 7 5 1 0 0 22 Mayfield 9 4 3 1 0 23 Bridgewater 9 4 2 0 0 24 Tagovailoa 9 4 2 0 0 25 Rivers 8 3 0 0 0 26 Lock 5 4 2 0 0 27 Dalton 8 2 2 0 0 28 Jones 5 2 0 0 0 29 Darnold 4 2 0 0 0

Take Aways

I'm not projecting next year, this is only last year's data, which may be helpful for projecting next year.

Rodgers was a machine, and while he didn't have any super high weeks, He had more 20+ point weeks then any other QB, and as many 25+ games. He shouldn't have won you any weeks like his peers, but he gave you a consistent advantage every week you played him.

Allen's 9 weeks of 20+ is the lowest of any of the top 6 finishing QBs, however he clearly had the most boom potential.

When extended to a full season, Dak becomes my undisputed #1 QB, Hill (just his QB weeks) and Hurts become #12 and #13 respectively. I excluded them because the sample size of 4 games each is too low.

After #9 on my list there's a big drop off, where none of the QB's posted 20+ in half their weeks

The Math

The formula for ranking their consistency was I took every stat divided it by their games played then multiplied it by 16.

[ ({20+}*4) + ({15+}*2) + ({25+}*1.5) + ({10+}*1) + ({30+}*1) + ({35+}*1) ]

I wanted to weigh the odds of them getting 20+ points really high, factor in lower but still okay games, while factoring in their boom potential slightly to sort similar players. If you have ideas to improve the rankings I'd love to hear them.

  Original Reddit Post

[fantasystatter]

A Look at 2020 TE Floors

  Player Rank Points 6+ 10+ 15+ 20+ Kelce 1 313 15 14 12 10 Waller 2 279 15 12 8 4 Kittle 3 125 7 5 5 2 Hockenson 4 175 13 10 4 0 Andrews 5 170 10 8 4 3 Thomas 6 177 12 10 2 1 Henry 7 145 11 9 1 0 Tonyan 8 177 11 9 4 1 Hurst 9 149 12 8 3 0 Eberon 10 142 11 8 2 0 Smith 11 140 9 8 1 1 Cook 12 127 9 8 1 0 Fant 13 149 12 5 3 1 Gesicki 14 159 12 5 3 3 Gronkowski 15 149 9 7 4 0 Godert 16 116 8 4 3 2 Hooper 17 114 8 6 1 0 Graham 18 144 10 6 3 1 Engram 19 141 10 6 2 0 Schultz 20 147 12 5 2 1 Smith Jr. 21 99 6 5 3 1 Higbee 22 128 10 3 2 1 Arnold 23 97 8 2 1 1 Everett 24 93 5 3 0 0

  Take Aways

I'm not projecting next year, this is only last year's data, which may be helpful for projecting next year.

The top 5 line up perfectly with fantasypros rankings

Thomas and Tonyan scored more points, but you would have been alot happier with Hock and Andrews last year.

Gesicki and Fant were WAY too boom and bust for week to week production

Gronk was incredibly slow weeks 1-5. If you remove them from my rankings, he jumps up to #6.

Kelce was an absolute MONSTER. He had as many 20+ point games then anyone but Waller had 10+ games.

  The Math

The formula for ranking their consistency was I took every stat divided it by their games played then multiplied it by 16.

[ ({10+}*4) + ({8+}*2) + ({15+}*1.5) + ({6+}*1) + ({20+}*1) + ({30+}*1) ]

I wanted to weigh the odds of them getting 10+ points really high, factor in lower but still okay games, while factoring in their boom potential slightly to sort similar players. If you have ideas to improve the rankings, I'd love to hear them.

  Original Reddit Post