fplmaestro-blog

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#GW26 team, little skeptical benching David Luiz and Laporte. Two transfers made: Firmino and Fraser out, Batman and Sonaldo in! Pogba captain, Rashford vice captain.  

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Fool’s Gold 2; is it Still Folly to Chase Price Rises?

By @InfernoSix

Introduction

Earlier in the season I wrote an article called Fool’s Gold, is it folly to chase price rises?  This looked at the points scored over the last 6 game weeks of last season, to see how the lower priced players compared with the higher priced players.

The conclusions came to in that article were that the most expensive forwards and midfielders, on average, did not significantly outscore their cheaper counterparts.  A teammate comparison analysis indicated that it was not necessary to have the most expensive player from a particular team.  The lesson I brought forward to this season was that it is not necessary to chase player price rises in the early part of the season, so that towards the end of the season a high team value is available to buy the most expensive players.

I suggested that player fatigue was a possible reason why there wasn’t a significant difference between the players. This is because over the whole season, the expensive players may have played more than the cheaper players and so at the end of the season fatigue affected their FPL point’s performance?

As a follow up to that article I want to see if over the first 11 game weeks of this season, when fatigue should not be an issue, if the most expensive forwarders and midfielders outscored their cheaper counterparts.

                        Top 20 Forward Analysis

The analysis I did was to list in price order the top 20 scoring forwarders and midfielders. I then calculated the average points scored by the most expensive players and the least expensive players.

The first table shows the forwards. Note the player prices are as they were at the start of GW1.

There are 11 players in the most expensive and 9 in the least expensive. They cannot be split 10/10 as one of the three £7.5m players would have to go into the least expensive bracket. However, who should that be, as they all scored between 27 and 32 points? The best way to proceed was to make the division at the cost boundary of £7.5m.

The most expensive scored an average of 43 pts at an average cost of £9.5m, whilst the least expensive, an average of 41 pts at accost of £6.4m. Not a very significant difference.

Amongst the most expensive players, only Aguero, Costa & Lukaku scored over 60 pts whilst only Defoe, amongst the least expensive scored over 60 points. This means there has been a limited number of expensive forwards in form.  Any FPL manager starting the season with Kane, Vardy, Rooney or even Ibra, considering his lofty cost of £11.5m, will have been disappointed with their returns.

For me, Aguero and Lukaku have been my forwards for most of the season. I started with Aguero and only dropped him when he was banned, then brought him back. Lukaku came into my team in GW3 when Everton’s fixtures turned for the better.

Top 20 Midfielder Analysis

The second table shows a similar analysis for the top 20 scoring midfielders. Again, there are 11 players in the top part and 9 in the bottom part.

This is a different result to the forwarders as there is a 10 point difference between the averages of the most and least expensive players.

Seven of the most expensive players scored 60 points or over and none of the least expensive managed to score 60 points. Clearly, there are more expensive midfielders  in form and there is greater choice for FPL managers.

They are also outscoring the expensive forwards 62 points to 43 points. The average cost of the midfielders was £8.8m as opposed to £9.5 for the forwards. This means there is better value to be had amongst the midfielders.

It appears, at this time of the season when FPL managers budgets are similar, it is important that they are spent in the right areas.  The most expensive midfielders are perfoming as expected and outscoring their cheaper counterparts.  This is the area where most of the budget  should go.

I also suggest that managers use formation 352.

Top 20 Defender Analysis

In the original article, I did not analyse defenders but in this one I have. The third table shows the top 20 scoring defenders.

Again, the player split is 11/9.

The most expensive defenders did outscore the least expensive 44 to 39.

This would suggest it is better to spend money on the more expensive defenders rather than the cheaper ones.  In my team I have three defenders over £5.0m and two at £4.0m who do not play.

A side point is that the expensive list is dominated by three players each from ARS, CHE & TOT.  I will be looking to have a defender from at least two of these team. I may not be able to afford a third!

Conclusions & Implications

As expected, at the start of the season the more expensive players did outscore the cheaper players. This is especially true for defenders and midfielders. Not so much for forwards. I think this is because only a few premium forwards are in form, Aguero, Costa  & Lukaku.

Even though the results are generally as expected they do not confirm that the fall off in expensive player performance, at the end of last season, was due to fatigue. Neither do they contradict the earlier work.

It is important at this stage of the season to have expensive midfielders as they have been the highest scoring postion. I would also suggest playing 352 as oppose to the popular 343.

It will be interesting to see if the end of this season is similar to the end of last season. I anticipate that it will be, so I will not chase price rises.

An alternative way to increase team value is to buy players who may or may not be in form, but are expected to perform well. One example for me this season was Lukaku. When I bought him in GW3 he had been on a run of games where he had not scored. He cost £9m and was owned by 6% of managers. Since then he has scored 66 points, gone up in value to £9.8m and is owned by 33% of managers. I have had other, less spectacular succeses,  with Firmino & Coutinho . For interest,  the table below lists the players who, on 7 Nov 16 when I took the snapshot had seen the largest price rises. Not many above £0.3m.

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£5 @FPLMaestro knockout league

This is a randomly generated draw for the knockout league. Good luck!

Round 1

Match 1 : @ffscout_az 47 vs 54 @boothy_geezer 

Match 2 : @fpl_opinion 29 vs 76 @fplpricechanges

Match 3 : @Geofreak33 27 vs 53 @Fix_craig

Match 4 : @Pule81 40 vs 49 @ChorleyGolfer

Match 5 : @GuyLH77 45 vs 34 @FPLMaestro

Match 6 : @OllieMFL 40 vs 48 @Rev0lusean

Match 7 : @jamboboogie 31 vs 48 @Darryllwilson

Match 8 :  @Infernosix 45 vs 43 @Fpl_clown

Round 2

Match 9 : @GuyLH77 22 vs 48  @Rev0lusean

Match 10 : @Infernosix 50 vs 42 @Darryllwilson

Match 11 : @boothy_geezer 36 vs 39   @Fix_craig

Match 12 : @Pule81 52 vs  50  @fplpricechanges

Round 3

Match 13 : @Rev0lusean   96 vs 84 @Pule81

Match 14 : @Infernosix 52 vs 77 @Fix_craig

Final

Match 15 : @Fix_craig vs @Rev0lusean

[fplmaestro-blog]

Fool’s Gold, is it Folly to Chase Price Rises?

By @InfernoSix

Introduction

Previously, in the first half of seasons I have followed the common strategy of chasing player price rises. This has been to increase team value, so that in the later stages of the season I can purchase as many of the higher priced players as possible. In the belief, these higher priced players will return the highest points.

I would make transfers early in game weeks, usually on Saturday or Sunday evenings and transfer into my team a player that performed well that day. This could lead to problems as due to injuries I may have to take 4pt hits later in the game week.

Also, the players good performance may have been a fluke and not to be repeated. So my team could then contain a dud player, that in a later game week I would have to remove with a second transfer.

I have looked at the last 6 weeks of last season, from wk33 to wk38 and compared the scores of all players, to see if lower price players score as high as the more expensive players. If they do, then there is no need to chase player prices during the first half of the season.

Top 20 Player Analysis

The first analysis I did was to list in price the top 20 scoring FWDs and MIDs. Then to calculate the average points scored by the 10 most expensive and the ten least expensive. Table 1 shows the FWDS. Note, the player prices are as they were at the start of GW33.

The most expensive scored an average of 31 pts whilst the least expensive 29 pts. The difference in average cost between the groups of players was £3.69M. Over 6 GWS this extra cost gained on average 2 pts.

The highest scoring FWD was Aguero with 52pts at a cost of £13.50m whilst the second highest was Carrol with 41pts at a cost of £6.30m. Although, Carroll scored significantly less than Aguero he did score significantly more than the average of the 10 most expensive FWDs. Iheanacho was not far behind him with 38pts.

Giroud at £8.7 also scored between 6pts and 16 pts more than three players who were at least £1.2m more expensive. Table 2 shows a similar analysis for the top 20 scoring MIDS. This time the difference in average pts is 1. Not very significant. Two players, Sanchez & Mane, amoungst the most expensive scored more than 40pts. Whilst in the least expensive three players scored 40 or more pts. Infact the highest scoring MID was Mane who at £7.3m was by no means the most expensive.

I also plotted Price vs Proints. The graphs show that the relaytionship was not linear but is random. The most expensive FWD scored the highest points but this appears to be the exception not the rule.

Teammate Comparison

The next analyis I did was to look at players in the top 8 teams at the start of week 33. The teams were ARS, LEI, LIV, MCI, MUN, SOU, STK, TOT & WHU. I wanted to see if the most expensive player in each team/position outscored the cheaper players.

Table 3 shows the top 3 priced FWDs for each of the top 8 teams. Within the teams the players are listed in Price order. In five of the teams a cheaper player either outscored or scored similar to the most expensive player.

For LEI, Vardy and Ulloa had a price difference of £2.5m  and they scored similar totals. Granted Okazaki had more game time than both and only scored 10 pts.

For LIV, Sturridge & Benteke scored similar amouts at 33 & 31 pts, with a price difference of £1.9m

For MUN, both Martial and Rashford outscored Rooney.

At SOU, Long outscored Pelle. Although Pelle did not get much gametime compared with Long.

All three STK FWDs scored poorly but all about the same.

ARS, MCI and TOT each relied on one FWD so it was inevitable Giroud, Aguero & Kane would outscore their cheaper teammates.

Table 4 shows the same analysis for MIDs. In half the teams a cheaper alternative outscored their more expensive teammate. 

LEI Drinkwater scored 7pts more than Mahrez.

LIV Although, only £0.1m between them Firmino scored 11pts more than Coutinho.

TOT costing £1.8m less, Lamela scored 4pts more than Eriksen.

WHU both Noble & Antonio scored at least 3pts more than Payet.

For SOT Mane did outscore the cheaper Tadic but Tadic did return a very high 45pts.

Conclusions & Implications

Over the last 6 game weeks the most expensive FWDs and MID, on average, did not significantly outscore their cheaper counterparts. Granted Aguero, the most expensive FWD did return the most pts. However, Giroud and Carroll outscored more expensive FWDs such as Kane Sturridge and Rooney.

The teammate comparison analysis indicated that it is not necessary to have the most expensive player from a particular team. In the past, when making transfer decisions I looked at teams that had good forthcoming fixtures and then tended to pick the most expensive player. There have been times when I have not been able to afford that player and so have downgraded a second player within my team to generate funds. This has resulted in a 4 point hit. Based on this analysis I will no longer do this but pick a cheaper player from the team with good fixtures.

This season I stop chasing price rises but wait to make transfers as late as possible in the game week. This could be difficult to do as it will go against the grain that has been established over the last few seasons.

Further work

It would be interesting to establish the reasons why cheaper players can do as well as the more expensive players. This analysis was done over the last 6 game weeks of the season. Over the whole season had the expensive players played more than the cheaper player and so at the end of the season fatigue was a factor? This season, at the end of GW6, I will carry out a similar analysis on he first six game weeks. Although, at the start of a season some players may return as many oats as expected because they  are not fit.

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Join our FREE FPL league

Hey there, to join our FREE FPL league click here  or us the manual code-  63509-13317.

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‘Money ball’ Approach to FPL

By @InfernoSix

Introduction

I describe my approach to FPL as Moneyball.  What do I mean by this? Essentially, I use statistics to help me select my initial team and to support my transfer decisions as well as captain choices throughout the season.

Stats are not used exclusively as I also watch games, read match reports and listen to opinions on twitter and various FPL websites.

Pre-season

This season when the game was launched, I didn’t go to the list of players and select the high profile expensive new signings or the highest point’s scorers from last season and then find that the team was £6m over budget! Then look to the newly promoted sides to find budget options.

No. I said to myself, ‘how many points are required to win FPL’?  The winning totals in the last three seasons were 2458,2470 & 2634 points. The average being 2520 points which equates to 66 pts/week.

If we say 8% of points are to come from the captain choice (5.3pts/week) then the team has to score an average of 61 pts per week. As there are 11 playing positions, excluding bench players, within the team, each position has to contribute an average of 5.5 points per week.

That is the target I set myself, to put together a team that will generate 5.5 pts per position per week.

Points / 90 mins and Value for Money

At the end of last season I downloaded from the FPL website the minutes played and total points scored for every player. This was then used to calculate the points scored per 90 mins. I find this is the most useful stat to compare players.

Using total points scored can be misleading. One player who scored 150 pts may have done so over 34 games, but another player, due to injury, may have score 150 points in 20 games. The points/ 90mins would be 4.4 & 7.5.Therefore, for the season ahead I would pick the second player.

When this season’s game launched, I downloaded the players’ current prices. Combining them with last season’s pts / 90mins I was able to calculate Value for Money for each player.

To see how I used these stats we can compare Liverpool midfielders Firmino and Coutinho. The table shows the stats for both:

In season 2015/16 they both had similar game times of 22 lots of 90 mins. However, Firmino scored 1.3 pts more per 90 mins than Coutinho. Although, this season Firmino is £0.5m more expensive his Value for Money is £0.1 higher. The higher the number the better the value.

Based on this, I would select Firmino over Coutinho.  Note, as I write this, Coutinho is selected by 13% of FPL managers and Firmino by 8%. Assuming, they perform similarly this season, to last season, my stats based approach should give me an advantage over other FPL managers.

Team Analysis

I analysed last season’s teams to determine their pts/90mins/position. This was based on players that played at least 10 games:

As suspected the teams that had the best seasons were towards the top and the teams that the worst seasons were towards the bottom.

Based on league positions last season, the above analysis and a judgement call by myself, I placed the teams is three categories Top 6, Mid 8, & Bottom6. This is an instance where I have not used stats alone to make a decision. The relegated teams were removed from the analysis and the promoted ones put in their place. The list of teams and categories are below:

In general, I will avoid players from the bottom six teams and this will include budget options. The reason for this is because the bottom six teams tend to score fewer pts/90 mins than teams in Top 6 or Mid 8. The exceptions to this will be extremely cheap budget options which I will use as bench fodder, say £4m a GK and DEFs. Or any standout players within the bottom6 team.

Fixture Analysis

I like to use fixture analysis to find the teams I want to select players from. The analysis tool I use is Season Ticker provided by www.fantasyfootballscout.com  I set it to list the fixtures for the first 3 game weeks. This is because I plan to play the wild card after GW3.

No matter how much planning the FPL manager makes in pre-season the first few game weeks are a bigger lottery than the rest of the season. The players that played well last season may not be the ones that play well this season. New players have come to the league and they adjust to it at different rates. Some of them never adjust.  Players that have taken part in international tournaments may not be match fit.  So for all these reasons I will reassess my team after game week 3 and probably play the wildcard.

UTD and CHE have the best fixtures of the top 6 and WBA and STK have the best fixtures of the MID8. When I select the players I may double up on the teams which have the best fixture. I do not plan to triple up on a team at any point. This is because it is putting my eggs all in one basket. I like to spread players as this maximises the opportunities to score bonus points:

Team Structure

A common team structure used by FPL managers is 343 with rotating £4.5m defenders. However, analysis I have done has led me to play 352 without rotating defenders.

343 vs 352

I compared the Top 10 FWDs with the top 10 MIDS from last season to see who scored the most points.                                                                     

The table shows the top 10 FWDS from last season.  They had an average Pts /90 mins of 5.3 and based on this seasons player prices the average Value for Money is £0.59.

                                      This table is the same data for the top 10 MIDs from last season. This time the average Pts / 90 mins is improved to 5.8 and Value for Money is improved to £0.66.

The bonus points system is the same this season as last so I would expect MIDs to outscore FWDs again.

Alternative Defensive structure

                                      It is common for FPL managers to have two premium defenders, 2 rotating home/away £4.5m defenders and one bench warmer £4m defender such as:

    The logic being that the premium players are always selected and the two £4.5 players are selected based on who is playing at home. However, I did not accpt that this is the best way to maximise points from the defence. So I carried out the following analysis

The table shows £4.5m & £5m DEFs who played at least 30 games last season:

The averages for the £5m players were :                

  Pts                         Pts/90                  VfM

128                          3.6                        £0.71

Now imagine a manager selected the two best performing £4.5m players, McAuley & Cathcart and that they rotated perfectly home and away. The maximum points available would be

McAuley                                            =             +97

Cathcart                                            =             +96

Appearance        = -2 x 34               =              -68

Total      available                             =             125

Remember only one of them can be selected in anyone game week, so appearance points for the non-playing player have to be deducted from the total available points. This maximum is less than the average for the £5m players. Also, the average points / 90 mins for the McAuley/Cathcart combination was 2.85 which is much lower than 3.7 for the £5m players.

GW 1-3 Team

This is my the current team draft:

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Final Prizes for our £5 FPL League

£55 for the winner

£35 for second place

£25 for third

£15 for fourth

Ok, so I kind of messed up and allowed 26 people to join. This won’t be an issue, I’ll just give out 5 more quid in prizes. Good luck to everyone that joined, the league is now closed. Cheers!

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My latest draft. 

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Top Picks from Promoted Teams

by @iFantasyEPL

Only two weeks to kick off, let’s take a look at the best newly promoted players out there.

Burnley

Returning back to the premier league since they got relegated in the 2014-15 season.

Tricky start with Liverpool, Chelsea and Leicester in their opening 5 fixtures.

Home games against Swansea, Hull and Watford in their first 6 games.

ATTACK – ANDRE GRAY ( 6.5 ) is the one to watch out for. With 23 goals and 9 assists last season, he averages 2.4 shots on goal per game. He could be the ideal 3rd forward for your team. His good form has continued in preseason, as he has scored 4 goals in 3 games.      

MIDFIELD – SCOTT ARFIELD ( 5.5 )  contributed 8 goals and 6 assists last season.

DEFENSE – MICHAEL KEANE ( 5.0 ) is the ideal defender who has an eye for goal as well as a good defensive record. He put together 5 goals and 19 assists, last season.

KEEPER – TOM HEATON ( 4.5 ) is a great pick from this side. Coming into this season with 19 clean sheets and 3.1 saves per game, is something to be proud of. He will be up against the big boys now and will hopefully continue to accumulate those save points. In 2014-15, he had 10 clean sheets with Burnley in the Premier league.

Hull City

Hull are not new to the Premier league, they’ve struggled against big teams in the past.

They made their way this time around through the play offs, with a win against Sheffield Wednesday.

Very tough start to the season with Leicester, Man Utd, Arsenal, Liverpool and Chelsea in their opening 7 fixtures.

ATTACK – ABEL HERNANDEZ ( 6.0 ) is not to be ignored as he, like Andre Gray, is a goal machine. Averaging 3.2 shots on goal per game and coming off a good season with 21 goals, the Uruguayan is worth keeping an eye on. ALSO, he takes PK’s.

MIDFIELD – There are plenty of decent options in the side with ROBERT SNODGRASS ( 5.5 ) who missed half of last season due to injury, however still managed 4 goals and 7 assists. We’ve seen him rack up goals and assists, in the past. SAM CLUCAS ( 5.0 ) is also a decent option who does chip in with goal and assists, 6 and 8 respectively in previous season. MO DIAME ( 5.5 ) who scored 10 goals and 4 assists in last season. He’s not new to the premier league and has never seized to impress me, in the past. 

DEFENSE – As I mentioned earlier, Hull have a tough opening set of fixtures. I would only consider ANDY ROBERSTON ( 4.5 ) as a filler in my back line.

KEEPER – If you are out of funds, JAKUPOVIC ( 4.0 ) is the man you are looking for, as McGregor is injured. Jakupovic will start for Hull. Temporarily, at least. 

Middlesbrough

Back to the premier league after 7 long years.

Easiest start among the 3 teams with Stoke, Sunderland, West Brom and Crystal Palace their first 4 fixtures.

Only conceded 8 goals at home last season.

ATTACK – NEGREDO(6.5) looks to be the best addition when it comes to promoted teams. On loan from Valencia, the Spaniard look’s set shine. He didn’t get too much game time at Man Shitty, but will surely be a starter for Middlesbrough’s. JORDAN RHODES ( 6.0 ) is another option for Karanka as he has been on a scoring spree since his days at Blackburn. Rhodes has scored 16 goals,  since he was brought in January 2016.

MIDFIELD- Boro have decent options in midfield. One that catches my eye is FISCHER ( 5.5 ) , who was brought in from Ajax in the summer. With 12 goals and 5 assists last season, the Dane is certainly on my short list. I fully expect him to make the score sheet, many a time. STEWART DOWNING ( 5.5 ) & ALBERT ADOMAH ( 5.5 ) are also prospects to consider. 

DEFENSE – GEORGE FRIEND(4.5) looks the most solid pick, going into a easy run of games. With Boro conceding only 8 goals at home, 31 overall and gathering 22 clean sheets last season. At 4.5 Friend looks a good bet.  

KEEPER – VALDES ( 4.5 ) is a decent option. The manager has spoken highly about his experience and record. It does seem as though he is nailed on, and with Boro’s fixtures, the Spaniard is definitely a viable option.

It’s worth taking a look at players from promoted teams. They are often cheap, selected by few and have the potential to gather a good amount of points. GOOD LUCK TO YOU ALL!

[fplmaestro-blog]

How to leave an FPL league

For all those asking, here’s a step-by-step tutorial on how to leave an FPL league. 

1) Go to the ‘Leagues’ tab

2) In the column ‘Movement’, click ‘-’

3) Click on ‘Leave league’

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How NOT TO build an FPL team

ONLY 18 DAYS TILL KICK OFF! Let’s take a quick look at common mistakes I see people make during preseason. Going to keep this one brief. 

Make too many LAST MINUTE CHANGES

This is not healthy and has F*CKED me in the past. If you are insecure with your team towards the dying seconds of the GW1 deadline, it’s not a good sign. Try to have a draft that you are satisfied and won’t alter much, around about a week before the deadline. Try have your team locked in AT LEAST 48 hours before deadline.

Planning an early WC

Unless there is a DGW, there’s NO REASON to play an early WC what so ever. If your team is F*CKED UP, it’s fine I guess. Planning an early wild card, in my opinion, is almost as though you’re expecting your team to falter.

Playing your chips too early

I’ve noticed a few people have already activated their chips, prior to the GW1 deadline. They might give you a head start, but a DGW is a significantly more lucrative time to play these chips. 

Not having a set formation

Pivoting between numerous formations, can really hurt you. I see people put way too much money on their benches, so they can pivot between 3-5-2 and 3-4-3. This IS NOT a good idea, it entails a lot of points being wasted on your bench. 

Being biased

Just because you support a particular team, does not mean you have to avoid certain players. Being I was a Man United fan, I used to take every measure possible to avoid Aguero, Toure(when he was good) and even avoided Suarez a couple of years ago. This totally F*CKED me. You have to swallow your pride and pick the players who will serve your FPL TEAM the best. 

Rely TOO MUCH on Twitter FPL accounts

None of us are experts and at the end of the day it’s your team, not ours. You should do what you feel is right. I’m just here to offer my perspective on FPL and what I would do, IF I was in your shoes. ALWAYS GO WITH YOU GUT FEELING, don’t rely on others. 

That’s it from me, good luck to you all! Let us know if you have spotted any other common mistakes. Feel free to keep sending us your teams! 

P.S. this is all just my opinion, don’t get too mad if you disagree with anything I’ve said. :)