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Goals Above Replacement: New vs Old

The dust seems to have settled on free agency. Teams are starting to look very similar to how they will when they take the ice on opening night. The Blues roster will look almost as different as their upgraded stadium.  Bloggers and writers alike have spilled gallons of internet ink talking about Hockey IQ and grit. There are many intangible things in the game of hockey. The leadership that David Backes brought was one of them. His ability to will a team to victory with his angry stare isn’t something that shows up on a stat sheet. But without those intangibles, there are quite a few tangible stats to mull over when comparing players. One of the most complete is called Goals Above Replacement. 

This stat takes into account a players entire game, and compares it to a baseline or a replacement level player. A replacement level player is one who is readily available on the market. For any baseball fans out there, GAR is a similar stat to WAR in baseball. The higher the number, the better a player is over your average Joe player who could be added to a roster at any given time.  To put the numbers into perspective, the highest GAR last season was Connor McDavid who had 24.12. Sidney Crosby had a GAR of 20.19.  

GAR takes into account 6 categories that encompass most of a players game. They are Even Strength Offense, Even Strength Defense, Power Play Offense, Penalty Drawing, Penalty Taking, and Faceoffs. Even Strength Offense looks at scoring and shot generation. Even Strength Defense looks at shot suppression, and shot quality. Both of these stats take into account quality of teammates and opponents. Powerplay Offense is mainly about production on the man advantage, and the rest are obvious. 

If a player is an offensive powerhouse but gives up massive amounts of quality shots on the other end of the ice, this will balance out their number. This is where a stat like GAR shines. Hockey players are rarely one trick ponies, and their overall play contributes to a teams wins and losses.

The Blues will have a large number of players not returning this season. Below are the departed players who suited up in at least 50 games for the Blues last season. 

Paul Stastny: GAR: 13.29 Stastny was regarded as one of the top centers available in free agency this season. His GAR shows this. His biggest contributor was his 5v5 offense. He also did well on 5v5 defense, his penalty taking, and his faceoffs. 

Patrik Berglund: GAR: 2.99 Berglund’s number is pretty low, which shouldn’t be surprising. His biggest contributor was his 5v5 defense. The big Swede was hard to play against, but didn’t do much to make himself stand out.

Kyle Brodziak: GAR: 2.14 For as much as Blues fan’s bemoaned when he left, Brodziak wasn’t a big scorer in the GAR category. His biggest contributing factor was his faceoff percent.

Vladimir Sobotka: GAR: 0.19 Sobotka is the first player with much noticeably in the red. He was in the positive for only his 5v5 defense, penalty draws, and faceoffs. The remainder of the categories he was worse than a baseline replacement player.  

Overall, the Blues lost 4 players, for a total of 18.61 Goals Above Replacement.

Now let’s look at the newcomers. 

Ryan O’Reilly: GAR: 17.20 O’Reilly himself almost recoups the GAR of the 4 departing players from last season. His strongest categories are his faceoffs, which he lead the league in last season, and his 5v5 defense. Falling just behind are his 5v5 offense, and his penalty taking. 

Tyler Bozak: GAR: 9.95 Bozak brings a strong 5v5 offense to the table, with his next biggest factors being his skill on the powerplay and his faceoffs. 

Patrick Maroon: GAR: 7.72 Maroon is a hometown boy that plays with size and grit. For a player known for swinging fists and landing hits, he is also a strong 5v5 offensive driver. It contributed the most to his GAR. His only downside is he is below the average at taking penalties.

David Perron: GAR: 6.96 Perron comes in just behind Maroon in the newcomers. His biggest drivers are his 5v5 offense and his powerplay offense. It will come as no surprise to any Blues fan he is below average in how many penalties he takes, and his ability on the faceoff. For a winger, his ability on the faceoff will make very little difference on the Blues.

Overall the Blues gained 41.83 goals above replacement this off season. That’s a net gain of 23.22 goals above replacement from last season once you remove the players that departed. For those keeping track, John Tavares had a GAR of 18.94 last season. 

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4 Year Averages: Acquisitions and Departures

Day 1 of free agency is upon us, and with us passing into the late afternoon most of the dust is starting to settle. There are 3 major signings for the Blues. Backup goaltender Chad Johnson, left winger David Perron, and center Tyler Bozak. You may remember Tyler Bozak from the article I did on him previously which can be read here. I highly suggest you do so for a more in depth look.

The Blues will be a very different looking team than they were last season, alongside these acquisitions are the departures of C Paul Statsny (VGK), C Kyle Brodziak (EDM), and G Carter Hutton (BUF). So with 3 newcomers and 3 departures, it makes it very easy to stack up what we gained and lost. In this article I will use players 4 year averages to foreshadow what they might be like next season. This will even out outlier seasons and give a clearer picture. These number are rounded to the nearest number.

C Paul Stastny

GP: 66 G: 14 A: 30 P: 44 POWER PLAY GOALS: 4 FO%: 56.3 CF%: 53.5 POINTS PER GAME: 0.66 +/-: 7

C Tyler Bozak

GP: 74.5 G: 16 A: 28 P: 46 POWER PLAY GOALS: 6 FO%: 54.98 CF%: 50.95 POINTS PER GAME: 0.61 +/-: -9.5

These two are the easiest to compare because many are slotting Bozak into Stastny’s spot as 2C. Bozak appears to have a slight advantage in goals, but that can be attributed to him seeing more games per season that Stastny who has missed games due to injury. Stastny is actually a higher point per game producer than Bozak. When you dive into the numbers outside of G/A/P, you’ll see where Stastny really begins to pull away from Bozak. He is significantly better on the face off and is much better at puck possession. In the last 4 years, Stastny has taken the puck away 68 more times than he has given it away, Bozak has only taken the puck away 59 more times. Last season, however, Bozak gave the puck away 5 more times than he took it away. The biggest difference between Stastny and Bozak is their ability to play a 2 way game. Bozak, is a known liability on defense. Plus minus is one of my least favorite stats because a player can make a perfect play and receive a negative number if his teammate makes a mistake and allows a goal. I rarely include this stat, but the disparity in the numbers made it worthwhile. Bozak is not a 2 way forward. He cannot play defense.

At sheer face value, the Blues are looking to lose 2 points per season by replacing Tyler Bozak with Paul Stastny. Bozak received a 3 year $5mil per season avg contract from the Note. Stastny received a 3 year $6.5mil per season ave contract from Vegas. For the offensive production, the Blues got a good deal, but when the defensive liability of Bozak is factored in, this deal looks far less favorable. 

C Kyle Brodziak

GP: 44 G: 7 A: 8 P: 15 CF%: 46.5 OZS%: 30.28

LW David Perron

GP: 76 G: 16 A: 32 P: 48 CF%: 52 OZS%: 53.85

These two players are almost impossible to compare. They play two different positions on different lines. Brodziak is a defensive minded center who was the heart and soul of the bottom 6. David Perron is an offensive minded LW who primarily plays in the top 6. Longtime Blues fans need no introduction to Perron. This isn’t his first time to wear the Note, but chances are it is his last. Perron left money on the table to return to St. Louis, which is something you have to love about the guy. In a season when big names repeatedly turned down St. Louis, he told us we were his home. 

Don’t let his 66 points last season as a knight fool you, that isn’t what he will be here. In Vegas he was allowed to focus primarily on offense. With all of those 66 points, he was still only a +1 on the season. Perron isn’t the best two way forward, and he is known for taking inopportune penalties, especially in the offensive zone. Many Blues fans jokingly names the David Perron hat trick as a goal, an assist, and an offensive zone penalty. In the last 4 season he averaged 57 penalty minutes, compared to only 36 by Brodziak. 

Brodziak walked away for a modest 2 year $1.15mil a season average contract. Many fans were sad to see him go. If the Blues are looking to allow their younger, faster, players with upside play on the 4th line, then it was time for him to go. If the Blues are still rolling out a defensive minded 4th line, then extending a QA to Dimitri Jaskin and allowing Brodziak to walk would be a mistake. David Perron received a 4x4 from the Blues. A 4 year $4mil a season avg contract. For his past season, this is a reasonable deal, but last season was an outlier in his career. We know what he is capable of, and he will add something to the Blues that we need, a right handed shot. Of the three deals, this one seems like the best. 

G Carter Hutton

GP: 25 S%: .916 GSAA: 2.60

G Chad Johnson

GP: 34 S% .902 GSAA: -7.49

This is easily the biggest disparity of any of the signings. Carter Hutton has proven over the course of his career that he is capable of putting up better than average to elite numbers. The league average save percentage last season was .913. This would make Hutton’s 4 year trend slightly better than average, and Chad Johnson’s far worse than average. My favorite goalie stat is GSAA. This stat calculates what the league average goaltender would save when facing the exact same number of shots the goalie you’re comparing faced. If the stat is above 0, then this goaltender would save that many more goals per season than facing the league average goaltender facing the same number of shots. If the number is negative, the goaltender would have saved fewer goals than the league average goalie. Over the course of 4 seasons, Hutton saved more goals than average. Johnson saved far fewer. 

Carter Hutton left for a starting position that Chad Johnson used to hold. He received a 3 year $2.75mil a year average contract from Buffalo. Chad Johnson received a 1 year $1.75mil a year contract from the Blues. It wouldn’t make sense for the Blues to sign Hutton with Allen still under what appears to be an immovable contract. The Blues have a fine talent pipeline coming up in players like Husso and Binnington. I still feel a much more capable goalie could have been had on a similar deal. That being said, if you look below the surface, Doug Armstrong likely wanted a goalie who Ville Husso could beat out in training camp to give him confidence. I would expect to see Husso get extended NHL playing time this season. Especially after this signing. 

The Blues have signed a player who will put up similar offense to Paul Stastny, but is a major liability on the other end of the ice. They have also added a top 6 winger coming off a career year. They let the leagues best backup goaltender walk and replaced him with possibly he league worse starter from last season. The deck has been shuffled, but I don’t see the Blues being much better now than they were last season. They seem to be all in on betting on the development of young talent like Rob Thomas, Jordan Kyrou, Klim Kostin, and Ville Husso. One interesting side note, the Blues who were desperately thin at right handed shots last season added 2 right handed shots in Bozak and Perron. 

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Free Agent Goaltender: Jonathan Bernier

Jonathan Bernier G Colorado Avalanche

It is no secret that the Blues are looking for an upgrade at goalie. Jake Allen has had a midseason slump for two seasons in a row. He has needed extended help from his backup to not sink the entirety of the season during these times of metal decay. With UFA Carter Hutton likely moving on, the Blues will need a capable net minder behind or next to Allen. As I have written in a previous article, I believe Allen is much more suited to a 1A/1B scenario than being saddled as the true #1 guy in net. You can read that article here. 

With Ville Husso at least a year of development away from being truly NHL ready, the Blues may need to turn to a veteran on a short term deal who can bridge the gap. Look no further than Jonathan Bernier. He spent his time last season in Colorado after coming over from Anaheim. The 29 year old split time with Semyon Varlamov, seeing lesser action of the two. Let’s look at his stats:

GP: 37 W-L-T: 19-13-3 S%: .913 GAA: 2.85 GSAA: 0.84

Bernier isn’t posting league best numbers, but he is posting above league average numbers. Something that Jake Allen is not. The NHL is a team game, but often the most important player in determining if your team gets a point on any given night is your goaltender. Bernier has a point percentage of .554. A perfect 2 points every night would give a goaltender a 1.00 point percentage, so out of a possible 2 points every night, Bernier averages over 1 point every time his team took the ice. Jake Allen averaged less than a point per night at .483 last season. 

Save percentage is one of the most looked to stats for goaltenders. The league average last season was .912, putting Bernier just barely above average. Jake Allen was well below the league average at .906 last season. Allen’s career average is .913, but Bernier’s is slightly beter at .914.

Goals against average is a stat that I find misleading, which is why I included GSAA, or goals saved above average. Teams play wide ranges of defensive schemes, and some goalies face far more shots per night than others. GSAA takes that into consideration. This stat looks at the goals a goalie prevented given his save percentage and shots faced vs. the league average save percentage on the same number of shots faced. The higher the number the better with 0 being exactly average. Bernier, is saving more goals per night than the average goalie when facing the same number of shots per night. Jake Allen has a putrid -10.34 in this category. 

Bernier had trouble remaining healthy last season missing time with a head injury and a lower body injury. At this stage in his career, he is not a starting goaltender, but he is a slightly above average goaltender. When splitting reps with Jake Allen, they could work to each other’s strengths and provide the other with much needed time off. Bernier’s body could get a break and Allen’s head could get a break. Bernier would be much more suited in this role than completely untested Ville Husso. 

So what would it cost to bring Bernier in? According to Hockey Graphs, 2 year $3.1 mil per year avg. This would effectively bridge the gap until Husso is ready, and for a reasonable price. In comparison, UFA Robin Lehner is expected to get a 2 year $3.6 mil per year average. The average salary on the St. Louis Blues last season was $3.33 mil, meaning Bernier would be a below average salaried player for the Blues. The Blues, however do have the 9th highest average salary in the league per player. According to Hockey Graphs, Carter Hutton is also expected to garner a 2 year $3.1 mil a year average deal. For the same price, Hutton might be a much better goalie, but he is also looking to be a starter. He would likely take less to go to a team where he can be the number one guy. He seems to have had his fill of sitting behind Jake Allen.  

After being spurned by Tavares, the Blues are left with a large amount of salary cap space and few big named players to fill it with. It is becoming obvious they must start looking for multiple smaller pieces to complete their puzzle instead of a few large pieces. Bernier is not a player who will lead the Blues to cup contention himself, but he is a player who would fill a need and improve the team as a whole. While other options like re-signing Hutton might be more favorable for the Blues, it also might be less favorable for the player. The Blues would seem to be a favorable landing spot for a player like Bernier who isn’t looking to be the number one guy. For his asking price, he would be a very reasonable addition to the Blues. 

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Patrick Maroon

Patrick Maroon LW Edmonton Oilers / New Jersey Devils

Rumors have begun to swirl that the Blues are interested in adding free agent left winger Patrick Maroon. Maroon is a St. Louis native who played last season with the Oilers before being traded to the Devils at the deadline. 

The 30 year old St. Louisian has made a name for himself by being strong on the puck, and a physical beast on the ice. Let’s take a look at his numbers from last season.

GP: 74  G: 17 A: 26 P: 43 CF%: 53.3% HIT: 150 BLK: 14 S%: 12.1

There is enough here to jump off the page at you, but let’s break it down and compare it to current Blues. His 43 points would put him 6th on the Blues behind Alex Steen, and his 17 goals would have him tied at 4th with Patrik Berglund. His Corsi for percentage would be the 5th best among forwards, putting him within .3% of Alex Steen. Hits are a very relative stat, a hit means that your team doesn’t have the puck. They are also one of the hardest stats to accurately track. The Blue with the most hits was Dimitri Jaskin, but second behind him was Brayden Schenn. The divide between the perceptions of those two players is wide, so take this stat as you will. If Maroon was to be compared, he would come in 3rd just 4 hits behind Schenn and 23 more than the 4th place Vladi Sobotka. While he is physical, his block total is astonishingly low. To put it into perspective, Tarasenko, a player who is not known to go down to block shots, blocked 37, and the forward with the most, Steen, blocked 58. 

Outside of the numbers, Maroon is a powerful skater but he lacks speed. He is very adept at playing below the goal line and in the corners. His 6′3 225 lb frame makes him roughly the same size as Chris Thorburn, but he scored 36 more points. 

Maroon was obviously a commodity if he was moved at the deadline, and it was rumored for a short while he was on the Blues radar before their wheels fell off forcing them to be sellers at the deadline. So what makes Maroon desirable by teams who were looking to make the playoff push?

He is effective on the power play and helps drive possession for his team. Maroon isn’t going to score many goals while on the man advantage, but he is good at using his frame to screen the goalie. He is effective at playing a similar position to Wayne Simmons in Philadelphia. On the advantage, he plays just outside of the crease, where he can both catch and distribute the puck, as well as screen the goalie. Picture him playing just in front and off the goalie’s left shoulder. He can step in to screen or step out to receive a pass and distribute it when the defense collapses on him. His versatility in front of the net is a commodity not many players in the league have.  

For his lack of speed he makes up for it in strength on the puck. Defenders often bounce off of him or lack the ability to separate the puck from his stick. This is no more obvious than when he is fighting to maintain possession of pucks in the corners. Keeping possession of the puck in the offensive zone is a good way to drive offense. It wears out the defenders and often leads to icing or an offensive zone face off even if a goal isn’t scored.

Maroon also isn’t afraid to drop the gloves. He did so 5 times last season, and that was down from 9 in the season before that. To put that into perspective, Chris Thorburn fought 8 times last season, with Schenn coming in behind him with only 2. 

All of his attributes would contribute well to the Blues. Maroon isn’t a player who will show up often on the score card, but this is a team game. With the flashy big names passing again and again on St. Louis, it might be time to take a different route towards winning. Vegas did is last season with a crop of hard workers without many household names. Patrick Maroon is a powerful body who will give it his all night in and night out. He was brought to tears when he scored in front of his son in St. Louis against the Blues. I can only imagine how he would feel to suit up for the Note. He is an upgrade over Berglund and Sobotka, both middling players neither of whom have the same strength in the corners or the ability to screen the goalie with regularity on the power play. 

One downside is Maroon is a left handed shot. The Blues are a team of almost exclusively left handed forwards. The only right handed shots currently under contract are: Oskar Sundqyuist, Chris Thorburn, and Tage Thompson. Of the three, Thompson is the only one with top 6 potential. The Blues desperately need a right handed shot in their top 6. Maroon is better suited as a 3rd liner, and shoots from the left side. While he does handle some very specific needs, like the powerplay, he is also more of the same. The Blues are loaded with left handed players best suited for the 3rd line. 

So is he worth the investment? Maroon is coming off a back surgery this off season, but it is reported that he will be ready in time for camp. He is also 30 and could be looking to go for the biggest payday with the longest term, as this could be his last big contract. Could there be a hometown discount for St. Louis? It’s hard to tell. According to The Athletic, they expect Maroon to get somewhere between $8-$5 mil a season. Those prices are steep, but they seem to expect him to be much closer to $5 mil. The Blues have the cap space to spend, after being turned down John Tavares. They also may be looking to build a team without trading away their future prospects. Maroon isn’t going to be the type of player who turns the Blues into an automatic contender, but he is a player who would improve the Blues from where they are now. With much of the free agents beginning to circle their final landing spots, St. Louis appears to again be flyover country. Building a team piece by piece, rather than with one or two giant pieces could keep the Blues competitive and in the playoff race. Maroon is a piece, and one who likely won’t balk at the thought of simply living in St. Louis. 

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Jake Allen as a 1A/1B

Blues twitter has been exploding as of late while fans attempt to come to terms with the Blues current goaltender situation. Jake Allen has been wildly inconsistent through stretches of his career. At the start he looked to be the franchise goalie the Blues needed to anchor their team for a long run at being cup contenders. Those were the days when Allen was working in tandem with Brian Elliott. Since then, he was given the full time job and a bloated contract after a wildly successful playoff run when he stole game after game for the Note. 

In the two season as a full time starter, Allen’s save percentage is .910. Prior to that, as a 1A/1B, his save percent was considerably higher at .917. To put these numbers into perspective, last season the league average in this category was .912. So, as a starter, Allen is below average, but as a 1A/1B, he was better than average. 

The save percentage isn’t the only story. Allen has been noted for having mental breakdowns, which have derailed his season twice as a starter. His game is very mental and based on positioning more than athleticism. In his two seasons as a 1A/1B, he had 10 shutouts. This gave him a shutout rate of 11%. He had a shut out rate of 13% in his final season as a 1A/1B. In his two seasons as a starter, Allen had 5 shut outs. This gave him a shutout rate of 4%. In his final season as a starter, his shut out rate was 1% He was just shy of 3 times more likely to shut a team out every time he took the ice as a 1A/1B than he was as a starter. 

So outside of having a stablemate to lean on during slumps, what else does the 1A/1B give Allen that he might need? Mental breaks. In his final season with Elliott, Allen got 4 more days off in his first three months than he did as a starter. In his two seasons as a starter, he began to fall apart after the first three months of the season. He averaged in the area of an extra 1/3 day off between starts when working with Elliott. This time seemed to help Allen keep his head in the game. During his stints as a starter, Yeo has gone as far as not having him travel with the team so he could clear his head at home. For a player like Allen who has to be mentally sharp to compete at a high level, the extra head rest seems to make a big difference. 

Before its said that Allen played with different teams in each of those years and that could contribute to the change, lets look at this stat. Its called Goals Saved Above Average, and its one of my favorite goalie stats. This stat is the number of goals a goalie prevented given his save percentage and shots faced vs. the league average save percentage on the same number of shots. So, when facing the exact same number of shots, this is how many more or less goals a goalie will let in than the league average goaltender. In his 2 years as a 1A/1B, Allen saved 4.87 more goals than the average goalie would have. In his 2 years as a starter, Allen let in 8.14 more goals than the average goalie would have. 

Every statistic you look at shows that Allen is substantially better when worked as a tandem than he is when he is expected to be the guy. This study looked at a total of 4 years of results broken down into 2 year splits. Either Allen has regressed and was never as good as we thought he was, or he simply works better when given extra time off to clear his head. It will be extremely hard to move on from Allen and his bloated contract. There simply aren’t any franchise goalies who we can bring in to replace him. There are a plethora of quality league average goaltenders available who could be placed in as a 1B. With the extra mental rest, and without carrying the extra weight of the starter title, Allen could rebound to his previous form. In my opinion, adding in a 1B is the only viable option. Expecting Allen to be the guy with no safety net is too dangerous, and a waste of Tarasenko in his prime. Expecting to trade him and get a better player in return would require giving up other quality assets and lessen the overall quality of the team.

Check out my article on Robin Lenher here, who might be a player the Blues target. Keep checking back as I detail other free agent goaltenders who the Blues might target this season in future articles.  

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Free Agent Goaltenders: Robin Lehner

This is the first installment in a series detailing free agent goaltenders the Blues might target this off season.

The Blues are in a unique situation with their goaltenders. Jake Allen’s mid season struggles were a large reason he team missed the playoffs last season. That being said, his very strong play at the start and end of the season was a large reason they were in a playoff position to begin with. Allen is under contract until 2021 at $4.35 mil a year. His contract is paying him a premium, and he is not producing. The Blues currently don’t have a backup on the roster with Carter Hutton looking to test the free agent market. Youngsters like Ville Husso appear at least a year away from making an impact on the NHL level.

So where do the Blues turn?

Robin Lehner G Buffalo Sabres

Lehner is a giant of a man. His 6′4 240lb frame is only dwarfed by the rage he holds inside it. The big swede is known for his explosive tendencies and fiery compassion. He is still relatively young, at only 26, and plays a very aggressive butterfly style. He has spent his last 3 seasons with the Buffalo Sabres where all reports are saying he has worn out his welcome. Lehner is an RFA, but all signs point to Buffalo not extending him a qualifying offer, and allowing him to become a UFA.

Lehner came to Buffalo by way of a trade from Ottawa. A large reason he has worn out his welcome is the large expectations Buffalo fans had when he arrived. Lehner arrived with forward David Legwand in exchange for a first round pick. When a player garners a first round pick, they are expected to produce at a high level, and Lehner did not. He finished out 2 season with Buffalo on his previous contract before he was given a 1 year prove it deal last season. In a year when he was playing for a big contract, Lehner produced the following stats:

GP: 53 GS: 50 W/L/TO: 14-26-9 SV%: .908 GAA: 3.01

Lehner was the better of the 2 main goalies who suited up for Buffalo last season. On the last place team in the league, Lehner had similar stats to Jake Allen who played on a much better team. In my opinion, the SV% is more important than GAA when looking at a goaltender. If a goalie is peppered with shots all night long, he is bound to let more goals in than a goalie with similar skill level who faces relatively few shots. More on this later. Lehner’s save percentage was .002 better than Jake Allen last season. He did finish below the league average, which is .912.

The Swede was known for making athletic first saves, but having trouble controlling his position for rebounds. On a better team, rebounds get swept away. Buffalo has one of the weakest defensive corps in the league last season. They were noted for their extreme lack of speed and positioning. To attempt to put it in comparison let’s look at blocked shots last season. The Blues blocked 1278 shots, while the Sabres blocked only 1082. This is 196 extra shots a season that were sent but never made it on goal for the Blues. This lead to Lehner facing 2.08 more shots every night overall than Jake Allen did.

One has to believe that with a better defense in front of him, Lehner would have performed better. His career save percentage is .915, which is .002 better than Jake Allen.

Jake plays based on sound positioning. He makes saves not out of athleticism, but from being in the right position to make an easier save. This means when he breaks down mentally, like has has in the past 2 seasons, he finds himself out of position and unable to make saves. Lehner is a battler, much like Hutton. He might find himself out of position but he continues to fight using his extremely large frame and athleticism to make saves. The Blues, in my opinion, have always done well with a battler in goal. The entire team seems to get fired up when their goalie is visibly fighting to keep them in the game.

It is often hard to judge goaltenders because what sits in front of them often determines how their stats look. Recently, more advanced stats have come out that really help break goalies down. One of my favorite is Goals Saved Above Average. This stat looks at the goals a goalie prevented given his save percentage and shots faced vs. the league average save percentage on the same number of shots faced. The higher the number the better with 0 being exactly average.    

Last season, Lehner’s number was -6.08. This means that based on goalies facing the exact same number of shots at the league average save percent (.912), Lehner let in 6 more goals over the course of the season. Jake Allen’s number was -10.34. If facing the same number of shots, Allen let in 4 more goals over the course of the season than Lehner. Allen has only saved more shots on average twice in his career, saving +6.28 in 2015-2016 and +2.20 in 2016-2017. In comparison, Lehner saved more than average 3 times. In 2012-2013 he saved +10.34. In 2015-2016 he saved +5.98, and in 2016-2017 he saved +13.29. Over the course of his career, Lehner has saved 2.6 goals more on average. Allen has saved 1.16 fewer goals on average. This has been true even though Allen has played on far better teams than Lehner.

With Allen still under a bloated contract, the ability to move on from him will be difficult. Allen has never thrived as a true #1 goaltender, but did do well when paired as a 1A/1B. When Allen’s inconsistencies would appear, the team could rely on their other option. That happened in a way this past season, as Hutton took on the starting job during parts of the season, but for long stretches the crease belonged only to Allen.

Lehner is a quality option who could light a fire in a locker room that lacks it, but he is not a franchise goalie. He could make a good 1B to Jake Allen for the right price. There are a few big name goalies available this off season for teams in need, but most are aging and over the hill. While they have proven themselves in much bigger moments, they also have less in the tank and will require a bigger contract even if only based on their name. Lehner is a lesser known commodity who could be had for relatively cheap after under performing on his 1 year $4 mil a year average deal last season.

He will likely be able to be had for a smaller amount of money and on much shorter term. He may even be palatable to another one year prove it deal. It would make sense for him to come to a team with a solid defensive core like the Blues to boost his numbers and try free agency again he following year. That would coincide with the projected NHL impact time of Ville Husso.

With no easy way out from under an under performing, over paid goalie; the Blues best option may be to go back to a 1A/1B system. Even with Allen being paid far more, a true 1A/1B system with a fiery battling goalie like Lehner who may come on the cheap makes too much sense to pass up. He should be firmly planted on the Blues radar this off season.

[gatewaycitygoals-blog]

Computer Forensic Analyst: Proof can be found in Hoffman Case

There has been much made of the he said she said case between with wife of Erik Karlsson and the fiance of Mike Hoffman. It seems much of the Blues fan base has already come to the agreement, without any proof, that Monika Caryk, and by proxy, Mike Hoffman, are guilty. The couple spoke today to the Ottawa Citizen, claiming their innocence. The article can be read in its entirety here.

Caryk and Hoffman claim they are willing to work with the Karlssons and the local authorities to clear their name. The question is, can proof be found. The answer is yes.

I spoke with a computer forensic analyst, who wished to remain anonymous, about this case, and how he would solve it.

Q: In a case like this, can proof be found of who operated the instagram account linked with the harassing comment?

A: Yes, it is actually not that difficult, it just involves a lot of leg work. First of all, you will need to send a subpoena to instagram to obtain the IP addresses used by the accounts which have been harassing Miss Karlsson. Once you have obtained those you send a follow up subpoena to the internet service providers to find who was using those IP addresses. It is more difficult with phones than computers, but it can be done.

Q: Hoffman and Caryk have said they would cooperate fully with the police to try and clear their names. Would turning Caryk’s phone over to the police help the case?

A: In most cases, the person could give their personal phone to the police but have been using a burner phone to do the harassing. In this case physically turning over the phone to the police wouldn’t do much to help.

Q: Is it possible to completely cover your tracks in a case like this?

A: Yes, it is. If a person really knows what they are doing they can cover themselves well enough to make it impossible to catch them. The standard person, however, would have no idea how to do that completely. 

Q: A criminal stalking case was opened against Caryk, but she states the police have not contacted her yet, does that point to it being a false claim?

A: No, I always have my ducks in a row before I interview a suspect. I want to know the answers to some of the questions I’m going to ask before I ask them. Cases like this are easy to prove, but they take time. Subpoenas can take 2 or 3 weeks to return, and even then you may need follow up subpoenas. The chances of finding real proof of this being or not being Monika Caryk are high. It will just take time to do it.

So there you have it. There could be a definitive end to this case in the future, should the authorities decide to follow up accordingly. I would like to point out that the computer forensic analyst I spoke with has no knowledge of this case, and was speaking only in generalities under the pretense of “If this was a case presented to you in your own jurisdiction, how would you handle it”. All information given in this article also assumes that this case was occurring in the United States, and laws and procedures can vary in other countries. The comments given by the analyst are generalities and are not to be taken as an official statement by him or the department he represents.

If Hoffman and Caryk are truly innocent, it should be able to be proven, it might just take some time for the truth to come to light. 

[gatewaycitygoals-blog]

Free Agent Centers: John Tavares

This is the final installment in a series detailing potential free agent centers the Blues could target this season. Check out the articles on:

Joe Thornton Ryan O’Reilly Tyler Bozak

John Tavares C New York Islanders

By this point, even the most casual Blues fans know who John Tavares is. He has been on the radar for the Blues since last season. The 27 year old Ontario native is in his prime and is easily one of the best players in the league. Recent reports say he is focusing on negotiations with the Isles, but unless they offer him an outrageous deal, he will likely wait until the salary cap limit is set. 

The higher the ceiling, the more Tavares will be able to get on his deal. It only makes financial sense to wait and see. There is very little that needs to be said about Tavares stats, they simply speak for themselves.

GP: 82 G: 37 A: 47 P: 84

Instead of ranting and raving to the choir about how great Tavares is, or how perfect he’d be on the Blues; I’m going to look at what matters: Money.

The Blues are currently middle of the pack a far as salary cap space. They are 17th in overall salary cap space, but let’s look at it and break it down. Thanks to our friends over at Cap Friendly

 It is obvious Tavares is looking to get paid, and the Blues have the money to pay him, but just barely. The key to look at is current roster size. NHL teams on opening day must have a roster of 23 players. So while teams like Dallas have more cap space than the Blues, they also need to field 5 more players to have the same number under contract as the Blues. Their extra $5 million looks awfully smaller when viewed under that microscope. 

Most teams on this list would need to trim some fat off their roster after signing a whale like Tavares, who is expected to sign a contract in the realm of $11-$12 million a year. 

The Blues could free up $7.35 million by moving Berglund and Sobotka this off season. Those two could be replaced by Robert Thomas and Zach Sanford for only $1.769 mil. This would free up $5.58 mil this season and give the Blues 19 rostered players. If you guess Tavares gets $12 million, and the above player moves are made, The Blues would need 4 players and have roughly $6.5 million a year to fill those spots. That is very doable to fill the bottom of your roster.

If you find yourself combing through the list of teams with more cap space, there aren’t many with more favorable playing situations than the Blues. Let’s look at the ones that do:

Columbus - They have more cap space and one more player under contract. They also had a much better season last year than the Blues. They do not; however, have a superstar like Tarasenko that Tavares would get to play next to.

Philadelphia - The Flyers are in a big market and finished better than the Blues last season. Tavares would also get to play next to fellow superstar Claude Giroux.

Winnipeg - The Jets are a team that is on the upswing. They are from a smaller market, but they have plenty of cap space and finished just short this past season. Replacing Paul Stastny with Tavares could easily make them the heavy favorites to win the cup.

Toronto - No team has a fan base or a facility like the Leafs. They also have a youngster named Matthews you might have heard of. They are a prime destination for any free agent, and if Tavares brought a cup back to Toronto he could go down in the annals of history.

Colorado - Cap space and legal weed, what else do you need to hear?

Las Vegas - They came just a few games short last season, and were a media darling all season. The Knights got coverage from media outlets who generally forget hockey is a sport. They also have a brand new stadium and amazing game day experiences. 

So what makes the Blues stand out to Tavares? Other than the fact they have Tarasenko and the money to pay him: not much. As a team that is always shooting for a cup, the Blues have to go all in on Tavares, but even if the do go all in, it might not be enough. The Blues should be a front runner for Tavares, but in this race, if you don’t finish first, you truly are last. 

[gatewaycitygoals-blog]

Blues Announce 2018 Preseason Schedule

Preseason in the NHL isn’t met with much fanfare. Teams look drastically different between their preseason roster and their opening day roster. That being said, good teams are built with depth, and the Blues will be playing plenty of good teams this preseason.

9/18 - @ Dallas Stars 7:30 PM 9/19 - vs Minnesota Wild 7:00 PM (In Des Moines, IA) 9/21 - vs Columbus Blue Jackets 7:00 PM 9/23 - @ Columbus Blue Jackets 2:00 PM 9/25 - vs Washington Capitals 7:00 PM 9/28 - vs Dallas Stars 7:00 PM 9/30 - @ Washington Capitals 7:00 PM (Time subject to change)

The tough schedule this season could go a long way towards helping Yeo decide who makes the final roster. Once the preseason is over the record doesn’t count and no one remembers it, but it could play a bigger role this season with so much young talent trying to crack the opening day roster.

[gatewaycitygoals-blog]

Free Agent Centers: Tyler Bozak

This is the third installment in a series detailing prospective free agents the Blues could acquire at center this off season. The first installment on Joe Thornton can be found here. The second on Ryan O’Reilly can be found here.

Tyler Bozak C Toronto Maple Leafs

The hockey world is large and expansive, and watching the Blues on local market TV often leaves fans without much insight on teams in the eastern conference. We all know Toews and Kopitar, they are main stays on the other side of the ice. Someone you might not know is Toronto Maple Leafs alternate captain, Tyler Bozak.

He is a 32 year old Regina, Saskatchewan native, and is currently considered the 3rd best center available this off season behind Tavares and Stastny. Third best might sound enticing, but lets break it down.

GP: 81 G: 11 A: 32 P: 43 OZS%: 57.2%

None of his stats jump off the page, just like his play on the ice. Bozak isn’t overly physical or creative. He is primarily a clean up man who stays near the net to bat in rebounds. In a full season of games, Bozak had only 3 more points than Paul Stastny did in just 63 games with the Blues last season. 

While he took 13.3% more draws in the offensive zone that Patrik Berglund last season, his Corsi for % was only 0.5% better than our big Swede’s. What does this tell me? More than half of the time Berglund took draws, he was in his own zone. He was able to possess the puck, move it out of his zone, and maintain possession through the neutral zone and into the offensive zone at virtually the same rate as Bozak who took much more favorable draws. Speaking of draws, Berglund was also 1.5% more likely to win them than Bozak. 

For a player who lacks creativity, he doesn’t make up for it with physicality either. Last season he laid only 43 hits and blocked only 28 shots. Compare that to Schenn: 154 hits / 37 blocks and Berglund: 111 hits / 36 blocks. He also gave the puck up more than he took it away. He had 5 more giveaways than takeaways last season, compared to Schenn: 14 more takeaways and Berglund: 11 more takeaways. 

His stat line was still this weak even when paired often with James Van Riemsdyk (lead the team in goals with 36) and Mitch Marner (lead the team in points with 69). Compare that to Patrik Berglund who was most often paired with Kyle Brodziak (10 goals) and Alex Steen (15 goals). 

Bozak isn’t an exceptional player on either end of the ice. The Blues could use a good cleanup man in front of the net, but Bozak is coming off a $4.2 mil a year contract. It is unlikely he goes anywhere for less than that this off season with such slim pickings at center. For the price he will likely require, the Blues should shy away from the 3rd best center in this years free agency pool.

[gatewaycitygoals-blog]

Free Agent Centers: ROR Ryan O’Reilly

This is the second installment in a series highlighting centers the Blues might target in free agency. The first installment on Joe Thornton can be found here. 

Ryan O’Reilly Center Buffalo Sabres

To the casual fan, Ryan O’Reilly might not elicit much excitement. He has spent most of his career as one of the best players on bad teams. His most recent stint has been spent in upstate New York with the struggling Sabres. 

He isn’t a household name like John Tavares, and he hasn’t received the local media attention (and now internationally bad media attention) that Mike Hoffman has. In my opinion, he might be the best option for the Blues. 

Before you chop my head off and scream Tavares is a better and more dynamic player, you are right. Tavares is just shy of a generational player. He is easily one of the best in the entire league, and would immediately become the best player on our team. (Sorry Vladi) JT will be covered in a future article in this series, but to lure him to St. Louis with every other team in the league courting him will take big money and big term. Rumor has it it might take in the area of $12 mil a year avg. A contract like that could cripple the Blues ability to build a team around him and certainly cripple them in the future. Is it worth it for a few real shots at the cup? Only if we win, which is never guaranteed.

O’Reilly doesn’t come cheap, he is making the exact same amount as Tarasenko. He is locked up until 2023 with $7.5 mil/yr avg.That isn’t a cheap contract to take on, but compared to what Tavares will make, its palatible.

So who is Ryan O’Reilly?

He’s a 27 year old Ontario native, and he’s one of the best two way forwards in the league. He is defensively sound and plays like a power forward. He might also have the best backhand in the league. His stat line reads:

GP: 81 G: 24 A: 37 P: 61 TOI: 20:49 OZS%: 42.6% FOW%: 60%

There are a few stats here that jump off the page at me. He eats up time on the ice. He averaged more time on the ice than any Blues forward. Schenn lead the team with 19:44 last season. The Blues might be looking to give Robert Thomas a real crack at the lineup this season, but giving him too much ice time would be a real risk. Having a clock eater like O’Reilly would benefit a team that’s looking to develop its young talent at the big league level. 

The next is his offensive zone start percentage. The Sabres were an awful team last season (25-45-12). Less than half of his zone starts were in the offensive zone. This means he was constantly battling to clear the zone before any sort of offensive stats could be tallied. The Blues centers’ zone starts look like this:

Schenn: 63.9% Stastny: 54.1% Berglund: 43.9%

This means that O’Reilly started with less favorable zone time than Berglund but managed to score 35 more points. O’Reilly actually scored 2 fewer goals than Berglund had points all season.

How was he able to so reliably able to generate points with such bad zone starts? Look no further than his prowess in the faceoff. He lead the NHL in that category and was 4.8% better than any other Blues center last seasons. The ability to maintain puck possession is vital in all three zones, and winning the faceoff can be the difference between getting the puck in your opponents net and keeping it out of your own. 

This is how O’Reilly was able to net 61 points last season, which would have put him 3rd on the Blues behind only Tarasenko and Schenn. He did this with far worse zone starts an a far worse team. It’s often hard to project how a player will do when placed on a better team, but the general consensus is, you play better with better players around you. 

Stats are all well and good, but what kind of player is O’Reilly? Stats can be deceiving in the NHL. A puck that bounces off your ass and go into the net, and it counts as your goal. Are these empty stats? The unequivocal answer is no. O’Reilly creates plays like no other player currently on the Blues. He isn’t a master set up man like Schenn. O’Reilly fearlessly charges the net and dares anyone to move him out of the slot. He is strong on his stick and skates and throws grown men around like they are rag dolls. Imagine David Backes with better hands and the deadliest backhand in the league.

O’Reilly knows when to hold onto the puck and when to pass it. Especially on the power play. So often last season I saw Blues pass the puck just as quickly as they got it without creating any looks for themselves or their teammates.They would mindlessly pass it back and forth while the defense stood still and never bit on a move. O’Reilly will drag the puck around the ice with power and make his opponents choose to give him an open look or his teammate. He also has a quick and accurate one timer. 

Something his physical charging the net style forces him to do is dig the puck out from behind the net. After watching Jaskin try and fail for years at scoring a wrap around, watching O’Reilly bring a puck out from behind the net will make your mouth water. He has, in my opinion, the best backhand shot in the league. His sheer strength allows him to out muscle opponents and get his shoulders in position to shoot. Most players in this position will tap a weak backhand attempt that has little or no aim or power. O’Reilly has the ability to go top shelf from the backhand with a flick of the wrist. 

He is deadly from all angles on the ice. He is not a sniper, but he is as close as a bruising power forward gets. His shots have eyes whether they are one timers, backhanders, or wristers. He scores goals and creates points by going to the net. He doesn’t sit back and wait for a play to develop. When his teammates find themselves in the corners or behind the net, O’Reilly finds an open spot in the slot for an outlet. He creates offense not by creativity but through physicality and intelligence. He knows where he needs to be and how he needs to get there.  

Don’t want to take my word for it? Check out every goal he scored in the 2016-2017 season:

Are you convinced? Are you surprised a player like O’Reilly is out there and you didn’t know about it?

So what would it take to get him? Buffalo has been in a consistent rebuild for some time, and are one of the worst teams on the blue line. The Blues have young defensemen like Schmaltz and Walman who Buffalo might be interested in, as well as movable veterans like Carl Gunnarsson. The Blues also have young forward talent in spades. Let’s not forget about our first round pick we got from WPG. Could O’Reilly be had for Eric Foley, our 1st round pick, and Schmaltz? I think it would be one of the better offers Buffalo will get. The Blues have flexibility in the trade market because of the amount of assets they have. They have more than most teams who are sniffing around O’Reilly. The Blues likely won’t make a move until they have lost out on Tavares, or at least feel they have fallen out of the front running. 

Fans across the gateway city will be upset if Tavares goes somewhere else, but if ROR is the consolation prize, I for one won’t be upset for long. 

[gatewaycitygoals-blog]

Problems in the Senate

Updated: 6/12/13 7:00 pm

As free agency starts to heat up, writers over at The Ottowa Citizen reported there has been a major rift in the Ottwa Senators locker room. 

The name Mike Hoffman will likely ring a few bells to Blues fans. He was reported to be one of their major targets towards the trade deadline before their on ice play forced them to be sellers instead of buyers. A name you might not recognize is Monika Caryk. She is Mike Hoffman’s girlfriend, and a raging internet troll. 

The report stated that Erik Karlsson’s wife has filed an order of protection against Monika for harassment. There is a laundry list of incidents, culminating with Monika reportedly harassing Miss Karlsson over the stillborn death of her child. Monika reported to have stated the baby stood no chance of a live birth after the child’s mother abused painkillers during her pregnancy. 

Updated: As time passes more and more info is breaking on this story. It appears to be a well known issue in the Ottawa locker room. Multiple wives have since come to the defense of Miss Karlsson. As further info breaks it appears Hoffman may be too toxic to touch for any team. This is especially true for the Blues who's caption also lost a child recently.

This report has lead to rumors that both Hoffman and Karlsson could be on the outs in Ottowa. Both players are currently under contract, and could be traded to clean up the locker room. Below, I’ll give you a short rundown on if it makes sense for their player to trade in red for blue.

Mike Hoffman

LW/C

2 years remaining $5.187 mil avg/yr

GP:82

G: 22

A: 34

P: 56

Hoffman has been a 20+ goal scorer for the last 4 seasons, and has never failed to score atleast 22 goals in any full season with Ottawa. With 22 goals, he would rank 4th on the Blues, behind only Tarasenko, Schenn, and Schwartz. The addition of Hoffman would likely spell the end for players like Patrik Berglund and Valdi Sobotka. If the Blues were able to trade both of those players, they would free up $7.35 mil in cap space this season and next. 

Berglund currently has a modified no trade clause, meaning he would submit a 20 team list who he could not be traded to. Sobotka, currently has no such clause. With Ottawa finishing 2nd to last in their division last year, they would likely be on Berglund’s list, but Sobotka might be able to be packaged with a pick and or a prospect to land Hoffman. Neither Blues player will garner much if any attention without a nice package around him, but Ottawa is in need of young exciting players and the Blues have those in spades.

Updated: while this info seemed relevant at the time this story broke, as further details flow in, it appears the outrageous claims may be completely true. Below are tweets from other wives inside the Sens organiczation. At this point, even bringing on a player with Hoffman's skill seems like a bad idea. Especially with a captain like Pietrangelo.

Erik Karlsson

RHD

1 year $6.5 mil avg/yr

GP: 71

G: 9

A: 53

P: 62

Karlsson has been one of the most prolific point men in the league from a defensive standpoint for awhile. Even if a down season, he would have the most points out of any Dman on the Blues, and 3rd overall behind only Tarasenko and Schenn. Before I delve into exactly how great a player Karlsson is, I’ll head it off at the pass. Karlsson has only one year left on his deal and plays right handed. This would put him in direct competition for playing time with Alex Pietrangelo and Colton Parayko. The Blues are in need of a strong left handed defenseman to replace Jay Bouwmeeser, and that’s something Karlsson just isn’t. With other teams showing interest, the Blues would quickly get outbid for a player who they don’t exactly have room for. Sorry, Erik, no Travs for you.

[gatewaycitygoals-blog]

2018 Prospect Camp

It's that time of year again, when the Blues get all their kids together to see exactly what they've got. The 2018 prospect camp schedule has been released and will span June 26th through the 29th at the Ice Zone at the St. Louis Outlet Mall. All on ice practices and scrimmages will be free and open to the public for any fan wanting to get a preview of the young talent.

This could be a very interesting year for the prospect camp. There are more than a few youngsters who could see extended time on the big league roster this season.

The biggest names here are Klim Kostin, Robert Thomas, and Jordan Kyrou. Any of those three could see extended time with the Blues this season. Both Thomas and Kyrou have 2 golds in international play, and Kyrou was awarded the Jim Mahon Memorial trophy last season in the OHL. The Jim Mahon is given to the top scoring right winger in the league. Kostin didn't have the same success in the minors, but many see a young Tarasenko in him. They are both very talented Russian players who dropped to a late first round pick because of the fear they could opt out for the KHL.

Two other names you might recognize are Erik Foley and Mitch Reinke. Foley was a touted prospect we received from the Jets in the Stastny trade this camp will be a first look for many Blues fans. Mitch Reinke is the first player in recent memory that the Blues have signed out of the NCAA.

An under the radar player to watch is Alexey Toropchenko. Alexey made an impact in last year's camp with his speed and size. He was over shadowed by players like Thomas and Kyrou in the OHL last season, but the 18 year old could be a very interesting piece if he develops properly.

[gatewaycitygoals-blog]

Free Agent Centers: Joe Thornton

This is the first installment of posts in regards to possible free agent centers the St. Louis Blues could target this off season:

Jumbo Joe Thornton Center San Jose Sharks

Jumbo Joe isn’t a fan favorite in St. Louis. He has had a dubious rep in the gateway city after a questionable hit on David Perron which ultimately lead to a terrible concussion and several ongoing post concussion symptoms today. Fast  forward almost a decade: Perron has left, returned, and left the Blues again and Jumbo Joe is facing free agency.

Thornton has been a mainstay on the Sharks for quite some time, but it might be time for the Sharks to put their former captain out to pasture. Joe will be 39 by the time the NHL season starts, and he missed a portion of last season with injury. He was only able to compete in 47 games last season. His stat line read:

Games: 47 Goals: 13 Assists: 23 Points: 36

In his shortened season he was good for 0.77 points per game. This would put him between Schenn: 0.85 PPG and Stastny 0.63 PPG to put his productivity into perspective. 

So would an aging veteran like Joe Thornton be an addition to the Blues?  The short answer is yes. The long answer is yes, under the right circumstances.

Jumbo Joe is no longer a top tier center. If his age hasn’t finally caught up to him already, it will. At 39, you can’t expect him to take top line minutes. The question is: under what circumstances is he coming to the Blues. 

Much of the Blues off season will be determined by whether or not they can land their number 1 choice. The top free agent center is John Tavares. With JT on the roster, the Blues would immediately be a cup contender. Without a signing like Tavares, the Blues will again be in an uphill battle for a cup, and maybe even for a playoff berth. Does Thornton fit into either or both of these roles? The answer is both.

Thornton has been a big part of the San Jose special teams units for quite awhile. Think back to our last encounter with them in the WCF and you might remember them complaining more penalties needed to be called to get their red hot power play unit on the ice. The Blues were second to last in PP% last season. If that unit had been even league average, the Blues might have been in the playoffs. With the departure of David Backes, the Blues lacked a big body to park in front of the goalie when on the man advantage. Last season, Thornton had 7 of his 13 goals on the power play, and 11 of his 23 assists on the power play. 

His presence would immediately upgrade out special teams units, which would eventually add up to more points in the standings. 

So when he isn’t on the special teams units, where would he fit on our lines? My take: 3rd line center. Look towards a familiar face to see how it might work. David Backes in Boston. A former captain known for his physicality and grit still finding success later in his career by playing fewer minutes against lower level opponents. Backes averaged 15:23 TOI last season compared to 19:14 TOI in his last season with the Blues. If the Blues land Tavares, our top two centers are Tavares and Schenn. This would be one of the best 1-2 punches in the league, and allow Thornton to sit comfy on our 3rd line on the road to a possible cup. If the Blues fail to land Tavares, Schenn  would remain on our top line, and youngster Robert Thomas would be penciled in as our 2nd line center. Thomas is a highly skilled player who would benefit from playing along side other top 6 forwards. In this scenario, the Blues are hoping to make the playoffs, but still building for the future. Thomas would benefit more from a season as a 2nd line center with some growing pains, than he would from a bottom 6 role with players who aren’t likely to score even when handed a good opportunity. 

Thornton could also pair well with some of our younger players who would benefit from a physical veteran beside them. Look no further than Fabbri and Kyrou. They are both younger smaller players who would benefit from a player known to stick up for his teammates like Thornton. Thornton provides the best skill and protection combination of any player or prospective player. 

The key is what is market like for Jumbo Joe. Let’s take a look at some stats from our friends at CapFriendly.com for a look at what players over the age of 35 can get:

You’ll see Joe is playing on the most expensive of the deals, with his old friend Patrick Marleau coming in 2nd. They are both UFA’s this season, and neither is likely to sniff anything close to their previous contract. No team will be willing to offer much more than 1 or 2 years in term to a player of Thornton’s age, especially coming off an injury. Would a 2 year, 3.5 million avg/year deal be enough for Thornton? I can’t see him getting a better deal anywhere else. This would put him in the same basket as Patrik Berglund $3.85 mil a year and Vladi Sobotka $3.5 mil a year. Both of those players look to inhabit the same 3rd line role as Thornton, but neither have the ability on the power player that Jumbo Joe does. The Blues could look to dump either Berglund or Sobotka this off season, and make a 1-for1 trade on their roster and salary cap for Joe Thornton. Tavares would likely take up a large portion of our cap space, but the ability to trade out under performing players like Berglund or Sobotka and replace them with Joe Thornton for no extra salary cap hit would be the best possible scenario. Sobotka can be moved to any team, and Berglung has a modified no trade clause. This means, Berglund would submit a 20 team no trade list, and any team not listed, the Blues could trade him to. Don’t expect anything more than a very late round draft pick for Berglund, in a move that would be mostly a salary cap dump. 

So do you want to see Jumbo Joe in Blue and gold?