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Spotlight Subscriber: Truly Unique Strategies

We work with some of the best financial advisors in the world. 

Thank you, Robert, for the great feedback.

Today’s spotlight shines on…

Robert Ruggirello, from Brave Eagle Wealth Management

Q. How did you get started with HiddenLevers?  

We were searching for a stress testing platform to provide a non-biased third party view of the drawdown risk in our portfolios.  We selected HiddenLevers based on the sound quantitative framework.  In addition, the website is visually appealing, easy to navigate, and produces elegant reports.

Q. Why is Stress Testing important to Brave Eagle Wealth Management? 

We believe that large unexpected draw-downs that exceed investors’ risk tolerance are what cause investors to quit on their long-term plans.  We are focused more on this drawdown risk than we are on annualized volatility.  We estimate and quantify each client’s breaking point, and build custom portfolios that have estimated drawdowns that do not exceed that level, to avoid panicked selling at the bottom.

Q. How have you applied HL’s tools to your practice? 

A specific risk that we focus on with our clients is inflation, and there are several inflationary scenarios in HiddenLevers that we use.  We have found that we can improve expected results in the inflationary scenarios without sacrificing expected results in other scenarios across the board.  We believe this can only be accomplished through proper diversification. Hidden Levers helps us to quantify the level of diversification.

 Q. Do you use any HL tools besides Stress Testing?  

In addition to stress testing, we have also incorporated the correlation screener into our due diligence process. The correlation screener helps us to identify truly unique strategies that contribute to diversification at the portfolio level.

 Q. Does HiddenLevers help with transparency?  

Yes. Advisors typically provide clients with one estimate of return and one of risk, i.e., "expected return" and "expected volatility". An example would be a portfolio with expected returns of 5% and expected volatility of 10%.  Hence, returns should fall between -5% and 15%, about 2/3rd's of the time.  Even if returns were normally distributed, what about the other 1/3rd of the time?  That is a big number that is not accounted for.  From the client’s perspective imagine losing 30% when you were told your portfolio should earn 5% with 10% volatility.  We believe in providing new clients with an estimate of what could happen the other 1/3rd of the time.  We do this through stress testing multiple scenarios with HiddenLevers.

Q. What is your advice to others that are considering HL?  

Market crises have been happening more frequently than statistics say they should.  We think Advisors should stress test portfolios, and disclose the estimated results in the Investor Policy Statement, in addition to expected return and expected volatility.

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WarRoom Recap: Climate + Disasters

Harvey. Sandy. Katrina. Andrew. Whatever the long-term impacts of climate change, it's hurricanes and floods that get the most press. While this summer's storms in the US and South Asia haven't yet perturbed markets, investors do have assets at stake and concerns to address:

At what point do natural disasters impact markets?

Why don't real estate prices or markets reflect climate vulnerability? 

Which industries are at risk for near-term impacts of climate change? 

Join us as we reframe the Climate Change scenario, and examine how Hurricane Harvey may shift real estate valuations to reflect climate realities.

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New Feature: Style + Sector Analysis

We're excited to release the next expansion of our Proposal report, which includes three new analysis sections. The Style, Sector, and Market Cap pages are now available for anyone with the Proposal feature.

These sections can be added to your proposal through the Proposal Settings page. Here you can customize the proposal in many ways including setting up different proposal templates.

If you are already a HiddenLevers subscriber, please reach out to your account manager or support@hiddenlevers.com to add this feature. Or,  you can try it free with our 7-day trial HERE.

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Spotlight on Subscribers: A Client Friendly Tool

We work with some of the best financial advisors in the world. Thank you Richard for the great feedback.

Today’s spotlight shines on…

Richard Oring,  from New Century Financial Group

Q. How did you get started with HiddenLevers?

I discovered HiddenLevers when I got frustrated by the current software I was using to measure risk. The software I used wasn’t customizable, it was very generic on what you could do. The other software program limited the scenarios I was able to run and didn’t have the ability to really work with SMAs. Another frustration I had while doing research on a replacement was that most other software programs had reports that weren’t always client friendly. It was perfect timing on coming across HiddenLevers for my business because I manage portfolios by limiting the volatility and maximum potential drawdown.

Q. What have you learned?

When I signed up for HiddenLevers I was expecting the software to show me the risks associated with current market scenarios. By playing around with the levers in the program I saw how different indicators can affect underlying holdings and overall portfolios.

I also learned how easy it is to optimize your current holdings in a model and minimize the downside risk. It was really quick and simple to shave some points off the risk in existing portfolios.

The biggest thing I learned was that the tools within HiddenLevers were able to explain complex information in a simple format for clients to understand. I really love the proposal report as this has helped me compete against managed mutual fund portfolios. Having the side-by-side comparison with fund prices is a great benefit for me to close business. 

Q. How have you applied HL’s tools to your practice?

I went from using HiddenLevers as a marketing tool for prospects, to a tool I use for all my existing clients. HiddenLevers makes the client meetings more beneficial because there is more depth to our conversations regarding downside risks resulting from current market conditions.

I am in the process of upgrading to the next level within HiddenLevers to help me manage my whole book of business. Being able to run batch stress tests is a great tool for handling some of the new DOL rules we see coming in the near future. 

I’m also an OSJ of a large group and I have been demonstrating this software to my advisers and have received such positive feedback. They are usually amazed on the capabilities of what the software can deliver.   

Want to have a similar experience?! 

Test drive our system FREE for seven days.

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HiddenLevers Perspective: Economic Levers

In HiddenLevers, you can run economic what-if simulations on investments. For example, how would a Conservative Model perform if Oil prices double or the Fed unwinds its balance sheet? In addition to our built-in simulations, interactive stress testing allows you to create custom economic scenarios and adjust various economic indicators (levers). In this HiddenLevers Perspective, we will explore how our economic levers interact with one another. We will also discuss how scenarios play a role in modeling the economy when levers move unexpectedly or to extremes.

To get started, let’s look at an example from HiddenLevers. In interactive stress testing, you may notice that if you slide the S&P 500 lever down, all the other levers move as well:

HiddenLevers regresses the S&P 500 against the 10-Year US Treasury yield to determine how changes to the market affect yields on average. This means that changes to the equity market will create a proportional change to treasury yields when creating a stress test. We call this feature 2nd order effects, and we calculate it for most levers. Typically, for economic levers that have at least daily or weekly data, we will use the rolling two-year regression calculation between the two levers to determine how one lever will impact the other. While this works with most economic levers, we sometimes use the relationship of one lever to determine another lever. For example –the value of USD and the S&P 500. It makes sense that when the S&P 500 goes down, the value of USD goes up. After all, as participants sell their holdings, they are exchanging their shares of stock for cash, and US dollars often become a safe-haven for investors during periods of market volatility. What may not be as obvious though, is how changes in the S&P 500 might affect the value of the Euro. To account for these changes, we use the USD as an intermediary factor between the S&P and the Euro. So, if a drop in the S&P 500 portends an increase in the dollar, we know that relative to dollars, Euros should cost less. If we were to simply look at the S&P in isolation against the value of the Euro, it may be hard to map a meaningful relationship. We use this sort of mapping for several economic levers inside of our system, including our secondary indicators.

Our secondary levers can be particularly tricky because these levers often exhibit idiosyncrasies outside of regular market cycles. Levers like wireless sales and consumer confidence can be linked to market cycles, while levers like coal and BDI shipping rates might be better explained by mapping relationships to intermediary levers like the price of oil. 

While using historical relationships to map lever-to-lever correlations can be valuable, we know that these relationships sometimes break down. To account for lever relationships breaking down, we create scenarios. For example, our Rising Rates scenario shows examples of interest rates going up while equity markets and GDP growth contract, two indicators that usually move in the same direction as yields. For most users, our off-the-shelf scenarios make it easy to explain a wide range of economic possibilities. If advanced users want to go beyond our custom scenarios, they can turn off our 2nd order effects feature and move each economic lever independently of the others. This allows users to create their own custom scenarios.

If you want to learn more about creating economic scenarios, then check out our Scenario Creation white paper, or reach out to our support desk (800.277.4830 or support@hiddenlevers.com).  Try a free 7-day trial HERE.

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The Spotlight is on HiddenLevers

HiddenLevers is usually the one shining the spotlight on our users, but this week the spotlight is shining on HiddenLevers' co-founder Praveen Ghanta. He was recently interviewed by Manish Khatta, of  Potomac Fund Management, after HiddenLevers was chosen to power their client proposal system. After two years of failed attempts with various providers, Potomac finally found a software who fit the bill!

Background:

Can you tell us a little about yourself and your background as our readers try to understand the process behind HiddenLevers?

HiddenLevers isn’t my first tech venture – I started my career in the dot-com boom and sold an internet startup right into the bubble pop in mid-2000. I then landed on Wall St (at Deutsche Bank) and spent many years building credit risk trading and management systems. That fit well with my educational background, as I studied both computer science and economics at MIT – but I always wanted to get back to entrepreneurship.

Fast-forward to 2008, and I started to think about trying my hand at another venture – just as the financial crisis was looming…

What was the main reason you started HiddenLevers?

In 2008, prior to the crisis, I became interested in the idea of identifying the relationships between different factors in the economy and investments. If we all look at the beta to the S&P 500, why don’t we also consider an investment’s potential beta to oil, or home prices, or interest rates? The initial idea revolved around discovering the “hidden” economic levers that move your investments – hence the company name.

But I realized almost immediately that if you have analyzed these economic relationships, you can also try to answer what-if questions about the future – what happens to my portfolio if the tech sector corrects? Or if home prices pass their 2007 highs? By the time HiddenLevers hit the ground running as an actual company (January 2010), the demand for better ways of modeling risk was evident, and this kind of forward-looking scenario analysis looked like a great opportunity.

The Proposal System: 

The ability to create proposals was a recent release from HL. Why did you get into the business of creating a proposal tool?

In two words: advisor demand. We got many requests from firms that were dissatisfied with the proposal tools that they saw on the market, and at the same time really liked our approach to presenting risk. Many advisors were already using our reports and other output with clients, and they were hoping to see something more holistic. We’ve focused on making our product development process driven by client feedback, so once we started to hear the requests, we listened. Another motivating factor were the changes in DOL rules – advisors need to be able to present more clearly on both matching a client’s risk tolerance and on the value that their allocations provide.

Being a tactical, unconstrained manager made it difficult for us to find a proposal system? Why do you think Hidden Levers fit the bill?

Potomac cares deeply about risk management, and I think you needed a system that would help you illustrate that. Since HiddenLevers has built a risk-forward proposal which focuses on highlighting that capability, I think it was a natural fit.

Nerd Alert: Maximum Drawdown, Stress Testing and Expected Return:

Can you explain why maximum drawdown is a key part of your system including the client risk scoring?

Measuring a client’s risk tolerance is about trying to understand how they might react when their investments are losing money. Most risk assessment processes try to capture that, but it’s very important to look at tail risks – what might an investor do when their investment is down more than a few standard deviations? Maximum drawdown can provide a good historical perspective on this, particularly when an investment has a real historical track record, and not just back-tested or index data.

Why forward-looking stress tests vs examining the actual historical return characteristics?

HiddenLevers’ forward-looking stress tests are really about taking the concept of max drawdown and attempting to model the risks that might cause a similar drawdown in the future. The stress testing model that we use relies heavily on historical return characteristics, as it uses a strategy’s historical returns to model its relationship to various factors in the economy. But since history never exactly repeats, it’s quite helpful to be able to take the economic relationships that drive an investment’s returns, and then model an economic situation more in keeping with the present.

The next crisis won’t play out just like the last financial crisis – for one we are starting in a much lower interest rate environment. Forward-looking stress testing enables us to look at a large range of different ways that the next crisis might unfold, rather than being tied to an exact repeat of history.

Do you track sample portfolios to see how accurate the forward stress testing has proven to be?

We do track sample portfolios and we use these to evaluate the accuracy of our model across a range of asset classes, including equities, fixed income, balanced strategies, and even tactical funds.

We periodically publish white papers summarizing these results – for instance we published a white paper on model performance in recreating historical scenarios like the 1987 crash, the 2008 financial crisis, and the 2014 crash in oil prices. These studies enable us to continue to tune and refine our model to improve its accuracy. Using these sorts of historical tests, we found that the model projected results within 5% of the actual result in 85% of the cases reviewed.

The proposal shows expected return/drawdown. For the layman, how are those numbers computed?

This concept is based on some long term historical data: since 1900, major downside market events (where the S&P 500 fell more than 20%) have occurred roughly twice a decade, or once every five years. Recent crashes have been slightly less frequent but more powerful, with two 50% declines in the past 17 years.

HiddenLevers measures the risk side of Risk/Reward using its stress testing model, enabling advisors and asset managers to look at a range of plausible downside risk events over the next five years. The potential five-year expected return is calculated by first using the model to project returns in the upside case, where stock markets continue to rise in line with their long-term averages.

This upside case is averaged against a variety of different risky scenarios, with the upside given an 80% chance of occurrence (remember that the downside is roughly 1 in 5 years). Once the average annual return is computed using this approach, it is compounded over 5 years to show a total return projection for the 5-year period.

The Future: What’s on the Roadmap?

What’s next in store? Any new and exciting improvements coming up?

We have had numerous requests to include additional components in our analysis and as proposal modules – analytics like sector, style, region, and credit quality breakdowns are planned for later this summer.

HiddenLevers is also augmenting its Risk Monitor capability to monitor clients’ status throughout their whole life cycle – has a prospect completed their questionnaire? Now that they’ve closed, does the risk of their new holdings match their risk assessment?

How about integrations with our software partner Orion Advisor?

HiddenLevers is planning to start sending more data back into Orion, so that advisors using both platforms can see HiddenLevers risk/reward and other metrics inside Orion and in Orion-generated reports.

Will you add the ability to add contributions or distributions to past or future scenarios?

This is an area of great interest for us – we do have it on the roadmap, but when we tackle this feature, we’d like to really address the idea of scenarios occurring at any point during a client’s financial plan. What if a particular downside scenario occurs tomorrow? Five years from now? Six months before retirement? How does the timing impact their financial plan? We are working on that concept – stay tuned.

Click here to read the original interview

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WarRoom Recap: End of Retail

Amazon buying Whole Foods is more proof that a handful of mega-cap tech companies are toppling retail. Legacy big box stores are desperately trying to play catch-up in e-commerce, and sector consolidation will leave only a few players in control. It’s not just retail either – it’s every sector.

Is the retail sector in a death spiral? 

Where else is tech domination spreading? 

Can the indexes rise amid sector consolidation? 

Join us as we update the Tech Bubble scenario, and debunk the notion of millennial preferences killing retail consumption.

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New Feature: White-Labeled Hello-to-Close Workflow

HiddenLevers now offers a single, customizable software solution that assesses risk tolerance, analyzes current holdings, applies your recommendations, and pushes proposals directly to account opening. This workflow can also be white-labeled to match your firm’s brand identity. Try a 7-day trial free HERE.

This plug-n-play solution begins with customization and choice. Your firm can white-label the look and feel of HiddenLevers to better represent your brand, including customizing survey questions, general site design, and proposal layout.

When advisors log in for the first time, the setup is complete, and they are ready to begin stress testing suitability and closing new clients.

Benefits of Hello to Close

Frictionless Sales Process

Sophisticated Stress Testing Model

White-Labeled, Professional Proposals

Custom Surveys Your Advisors Prefer

Model Selection Tool of Approved Strategies

Digital + Efficient Process

Competitive Tool for Recruiting New Advisors

To explore how this can work for your team, call 800.277.4830 or email sales@hiddenlevers.com or schedule a demonstration.

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New Feature: Single Portfolio Proposal Report

The HiddenLevers proposal report now supports both single and double portfolio proposals. It is available now as an add-on feature in HiddenLevers. See a video demonstration here:

The single portfolio proposal is helpful if you don’t have or need a prospect’s current holdings. It can also be used to create presentations for individual models. If you want a step-by-step walkthrough, visit our Knowledge Base article HERE.

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WarRoom Recap: Fed Unwinding

The Fed wants out of its bloated balance sheet. If it doesn’t create space to maneuver, how will the Fed fight the next crisis? Easy money is creating inflationary pressure, and all the future “positives” – GDP growth above 3%, tax cuts coming to fruition, long-term unemployed coming back into the job market – likely add fuel to the fire.

What does Fed Unwinding look like?

Is the Fed’s balance sheet forever changed?

Are higher rates self-defeating for the Trump agenda?

Join us as we introduce a new scenario on Fed Unwinding, and show how to put the 2017 Fed Stress Tests (for big banks) to work for your clients.

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Product Update: Branded Risk Survey

HiddenLevers now allows you to email a risk survey to a client directly from the software and incorporate your firm’s branding, see a video demonstration here:

See a step-by-step instructional guide in our Knowledge Base.

The branded risk survey email is another way to use HiddenLevers to engage with your clients and prospects about risk proactively. With the inclusion of your branding and the ability to send directly from HiddenLevers, the HiddenLevers makes is easier than ever to tackle risk.

Try a 7-day trial free HERE.

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Guest Blog - Risky Business: Why Financial Advisors Need to Discuss Risk

Today, we welcome a guest blog post from Potomac Fund Management’s Manish Khatta, President + Portfolio Manager (www.potomacfund.com). As an asset management firm for independent financial advisors, Potomac is another firm that believes risk isn’t just a sexy buzz term but is something that your firm should be considering very carefully! Thank you, Manish, for joining us today!

The financial world has many ways to talk about risk—alpha, beta, Sharpe ratio and so on—but at the end of the day, how much do clients, or frankly most financial advisors, really understand about these terms?  The answer is, not much.

No one really understands risk, so advisors and clients don’t talk about it and the consequences are significant. Only one in four clients say their financial advisor has talked about how much their investments may decline if the market crashes, per an investor survey by FinMason, a financial technology firm.

We like to think our advisors are different and constantly talk about the risk factors in the market using tools like our recent resource report on maximum drawdown.

We need to talk… about risk.

There is no good reason for advisors to avoid client discussions about risk. Unless you promote passive investments in which case you should avoid the risk discussion like the plague!

People think about risk and reward trade-offs nearly every day, most often outside of the context of the investment markets.

Consider these choices:

“Should I buy life insurance?” People weigh the risk of paying too much premium for a life policy, versus the reward of knowing their beneficiaries get some degree of financial protection.

“What should my car insurance deductible be?” You may reward yourself with lower premiums by choosing a higher deductible, but you risk paying more out of pocket if you have an accident.

“Should I go to the gym or stay on my couch?” You risk the poor health consequences of a sedentary lifestyle for the reward of easy entertainment.

I think all the sophisticated ways to measure and discuss investment risk make the discussion more complicated. Financial advisors need to keep it simple. The one risk measurement clients care about the most (whether they realize it or not) is maximum drawdown risk—how much can they potentially lose in a catastrophic market downturn?

Dear Financial Advisor:  Keep it simple stupid…

To us, maximum drawdown is the only risk barometer that really matters, for two primary reasons: First, maximum drawdown is easy for clients to understand—it’s all about how much pain they are willing to endure to seek adequate returns.

Second, maximum drawdown can’t be changed, obscured, hidden or beautified by other performance statistics. With any peak-to-trough drop in investment value, what you see is what you get. There’s no hiding or smoothing over the consequences of a significant loss.

For example, let’s look at the performance of one of the biggest funds in the market, Dodge & Cox Stock Fund (DODGX), during the years of the financial crisis and Great Recession (2007-09). Looking only at calendar years, this fund suffered a -43% decline in 2008, falling along with the overall stock market and most other stock funds, but rebounded with a 31% gain in 2009.

What these annual returns can’t hide is the whopping -63% maximum drawdown this fund suffered from its peak in 2007 to its trough in 2009. (See chart below.)

The question that a financial advisor should ask a client interested in a fund with this kind of track record is, “Are you willing to tolerate the pain of a -63% drop in the value of your investment?” or even simpler “Are you ok with losing -63 % of your investment at any given time?”

Only the most aggressive investors would answer yes to this question yet trillions of dollars have recently poured into passive investments. In our opinion the aggressive investor is usually the first to freak out and sell everything, at the worst possible time. Most clients would recoil in pain over a catastrophic loss of this magnitude and be averse to investing their money at this level of risk.

How Potomac can help.

That’s why we believe a tactical strategy to manage risk and avoid catastrophic losses is suitable for all investors. (That would even include the most aggressive investors, when they’re ready to dial down their greedy impulses.)

We also believe all financial advisors should put maximum drawdown at the forefront of the discussions they have with clients about risk management. Using the pain of significant losses to frame the discussion about investment risk can help clients provide honest assessments of their true risk tolerance. Financial advisors can then use this assessment to place clients in an appropriate investment strategy.

We just published a resource report on maximum drawdowns for financial advisors and their clients. It shares more examples of the impact that drawdowns and catastrophic losses can have on investment portfolios to help clients get a better sense of their true risk tolerance.

To download Potomac’s Resource Report on Maximum Drawdown, click here and learn more.

Disclosure:

This information is prepared for general information only and should not be considered as individual investment advice nor as a solicitation to buy or offer to sell any securities. This material does not constitute any representation as to the suitability or appropriateness of any investment advisory program or security. Past Performance does not guarantee future results. There is no guarantee that an investment in any program or strategy will be profitable or will not incur loss. This information has been compiled from sources believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as to their accuracy or completeness.

At certain places on our website we offer links to other Internet websites. These sites contain information that has been created, published, maintained or otherwise posted by institutions or organizations independent of Potomac Fund Management, Inc. (PFM). PFM does not endorse, approve, certify or control these websites and does not assume responsibility for the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the information located there. Visitors to these websites should not use or rely on the information contained therein until consulting with their finance professional.

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Product Update: Dynamic Portfolio Editor

HiddenLevers has released a new portfolio editor that displays live risk and allocation statistics as you are building a portfolio or model. See a video demonstration here:

If you want a step-by-step demonstration, visit our knowledge base article HERE.

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WarRoom Recap: Do Conflicts Impact Markets?

Despite dire headlines, the powder kegs of North Korea and Syria have had zero market impact. Government rhetoric and policy reversals have not cratered equities, and fixed income yields are processing domestic concerns like Fed action and tax reform. Still, headline risks are worth addressing, to separate the humanitarian and market impact of war.

How do US markets fare when the US enters global conflicts?

Are KorSyria headlines pushing US Treasury yields lower?

How does mismanagement of global conflicts impact US equities?

Join us as we update our Global Conflicts scenarios and discuss how Stress Testing builds client relationships by exploring which economic scenarios deserve attention.

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Spotlight on Subscribers: Help Clients Understand Risk

We work with some of the best financial advisors in the world. Thank you David for the great feedback.

Today’s spotlight shines on…

David Clayman from Twelve Points Wealth

Q. How did your team get started with HiddenLevers?  

A: We got started with HiddenLevers after seeing the product demonstrated at the TD Ameritrade LINC conference in 2015.  I was very impressed with the capabilities and the robust nature of the scenarios.  I examined a few of their competitors but this was clearly the most client-friendly product on the market.  At a time when few people are considering the risks hidden in their portfolios, I think stress testing one's portfolio is more than prudent.

Q. What have you learned?

A. I've learned how little people know about their own portfolios.  I would venture to say that less than 5% of prospects that we've shown results to have had any idea of the volatility that lurked inside of their portfolios.  It is the rare person who is actually comfortable with the potential scenarios once they've examined how their financial lives could be affected by various world outcomes.

Q. How has your team applied HL’s tools to practice?

A.   We stress test every portfolio we come in contact with.  Right now, with markets having gone pretty much straight up for the past 8 years, most people have forgotten what a correction in the markets feels like.  Using HiddenLevers, we're able to ask people about possible outcomes they could see occurring in the world and then show them what effect those scenarios might have on their portfolios.  In general, they think scenarios are far more likely to occur than their portfolios would reflect.  It has been a valuable tool both for converting prospects and for getting buy-in from our clients that certain expected results based on likely outcomes will produce a return sequence that they'll generally be comfortable with instead of having no set expectations.

Q. Your advice to others that are considering HL?

A. Well, I wish they wouldn’t for my own competitive advantage, haha. Seriously though, we've been extremely pleased with the product but also with the team at HiddenLevers.  Their continued support when we have questions as well as willingness to discuss certain features or scenarios has been fantastic over the 2 years we've been clients.  If you're not stress testing your portfolios in this litigious age in America, I think you're doing yourself and your clients a disservice.

Want to have a similar experience?! 

Test drive our system FREE for seven days.

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New Feature: Revamped Client Workflow

Watch the video below to see the new client workflow in action:

You can also read our step-by-step article about onboarding clients HERE.

Finally, you can try HiddenLevers for free with a Demo Account.