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Goodbye, Pittsburgh Pirates

My Dearest Pittsburgh Pirates, 

Happy Opening Day! Look, we have to talk. It’s not that I don’t love you. I still do. Very much. But it’s just become difficult for me to invest so much in this relationship when you don’t’ seem to invest the same. It’s not me, it’s you. I didn’t send you a final letter at the end of last season because it coincided with the front office again claiming that the more fans buy tickets, the more they can spend. That’s holding your fan base hostage and I have no tolerance for that nonsense. This isn’t a break up though. I will still watch you religiously and will still root for you unabashedly. I might send you a letter from time to time but that will be it. This offseason was tough to take. Not that I don’t think you could be successful this year. There’s a realistic scenario where you could be. It’s just hard to stomach the payroll dipping to about 75 million and then, on top of that, to see newly signed Lonnie Chisenhall and Jordan Lyles start the season on the IL (injured list). Bang up job with Chisenhall by the way. The guy will miss exactly the amount of time we needed him for. You traded away Ivan Nova away for no reason, other than a salary dump, and for nothing only to have no reliable fifth starter especially now with Lyles injured. It’s hard to stomach seeing free agents like Jose Iglesias and Asdrubal Cabrera get one year, nothing contracts while you make no effort to fill your vacant spot at shortstop. You traded for Erik Gonzalez who could be good defensively, but could also have an OPS of .500. Your division is arguably the toughest in baseball with the Brewers, the Cubs, and the Cardinals adding an MVP candidate like Paul Goldschmidt. Even the Reds will be improved after trading for Yasiel Puig and Matt Kemp. It will be an uphill battle but hopefully you will surprise everyone.

Let’s meet the new players. JHay and Jordy Mercer signed with the Tigers this offseason so second base and shortstop were vacant. You made a low risk trade with the Indians to bring in the aforementioned Erik Gonzalez, or EGon. EGon is supposedly strong defensively. In 136 at bats in the majors last year, he had splits of .265/.301/.375 for a measly .676 OPS. He did sport a WAR of 0.6 which was more than JHay and Mercer’s WAR combined. If he’s terrific defensively, I’ll take a shortstop who hits .265 with no power. But that’s yet to be seen. Second base will be handled by Adam Frazier and I’ll discuss that more later. Lonnie Chisenhall and Melky Cabrera were added as outfield depth. Chisenhall had about an .860 OPS over the last two years but he only had 320 at bats in that time due to injury. In the least surprising news of all time, Chisenhall broke his hand and will miss four to six weeks. That means Melky Cabrera will start until Gregory Polanco returns from injury. Cabrera’s a switch hitter whose career splits are fairly even. With Polanco and Dickerson batting lefty, adding another righty bat to the bench will be helpful once Polanco returns. Jordan Lyles was brought in initially to help out of the bullpen. He was excellent in Milwaukee out of the pen last year but it seems like all signs point to him being the fifth starter. He cost seven million less than Nova so maybe that played a part. He’s had a shaky spring and now he’s injured so if he doesn’t perform then that Nova trade will look at the more stupid. With off days, you don’t need a fifth starter for the first week or two, so hopefully he’ll be ready by then Francisco Liriano is back in the Burgh. He will pitch out of the bullpen to give you another lefty arm down there other than Felipe Vasquez. All of these moves are cost efficient. They could work out, but in each scenario it seems like there were viable and better options out there that were ignored.

Let’s take a look at the offense. The opening day lineup seems pretty set to me which is: Frazier 2B, Marte CF, Dickerson LF, Bell 1B, Cervelli C, Kang 3B, Melky RF, EGon SS, Taillon SP. Not exactly a power house. Polanco is progressing well from his surgery so it’s realistic he could be back by the end of April which is a relief. Until then, this lineup could potentially suffer from a power outage. The one wildcard is the return of Jung-ho Kang. He hit 7 homers this spring and sports a 1.113 OPS. Actually, if you want to get excited about spring stats, which no one should, Kang, Marte, and Dickerson all have OPS’ over 1.000 and Adam Frazier’s is currently .998. Don’t sleep on Frazier. My gut tells me he will have a really good year at the plate. The new hitting coach, Rick Eckstein, made a commitment to focus more on launch angles when he was hired so maybe there’s some universe where you hit more homers this year. You need them. The bench should be relatively decent particularly once Polanco is back. With Melky now starting, the other four bench spots will be Stallings for now, but Diaz when he comes back. Then it will be Colin Moran, Pablo Reyes, Kevin Newman, and J.B. Shuck, a free agent signed to a minor league deal, until Polanco or Chisenhall return. You ranked near the bottom of the league in homers last year. You don’t have a legitimate MVP candidate when everyone else in your division does (Cards - Goldschmidt, Cubs - Rizzo/Bryant, Brewers - Yelich, Reds - Votto) so that certainly puts you at a disadvantage. Kang should provide more power. Bell needs to bounce back and hit more homers. Marte, Dickerson, and Polanco need to be one of the best offensive outfields in baseball. If Frazier hits and the catching tandem can match what they did last year, this offense will surprise people. That’s the optimistic perspective. There’s also a potential version where this is one of the weaker offenses in baseball, but I’m trying to remain positive.

Pitching is the name of the game. Always has been and always will be. This part of the team could make serious waves this year. It’s arguably the best staff in the division. Pairing Jameson Taillon, who pitched like an ace from June on last year, with Chris Archer, an ace who tinkered with his pitches and looked terrific in September, could be a beastly one-two punch. Archer’s OPS against went from .926 in August to .678 in September. His ERA went from 6.45 to 2.70 and his WHIP decreased from 1.74 to 1.07. If his September lasted for a whole season, he would be a Cy Young candidate. The three and four spots will be taken by Trevor Williams and Joe Musgrove. Williams broke out last year with a 3.11 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP. His lack of strikeouts leads people to believe he will regress, but his weak contact numbers give hope that this is sustainable. Even if his ERA rises into the mid to high three’s, he will still be a solid starter. Musgrove recovered from offseason core surgery so here’s hoping there’s no hangover or issues. Musgrove pitched solid last year with a 4.06 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP. Given he was once a blue-chip prospect who hadn’t got a real chance to start in the majors, there’s reasonable that he could improve. Even if he can duplicate last year’s numbers, you would have a pretty solid starter on your hands. The fifth spot will most likely be filled by Jordan Lyles, once he’s back, and that’s by default. This situation might be the biggest ball drop by the organization. You thought you could get by on the cheap with Lyles, Nick Kingham, or Steven Brault. Brault was horrible this spring and Kingham was inconsistent to say the least. That leaves you with Lyles. If he’s terrible, you could go with an opener/bullpen day as the fifth starter but that’s not ideal. You downgraded your rotation because you wanted to save seven million. Those are the kinds of decisions that I can’t take anymore.

The bullpen should be a strength of the team. Should be. Felipe Vasquez had an absolutely dominant spring and should continue to be one of the best closers in baseball. Your two setup men were not as impressive. Kyle Crick and Keone Kela both struggled this spring, Kela in particular. I’m not about to panic over spring training stats. If they pitch like last year, you will have one of the best back ends of a bullpen in baseball. Add Richard Rodriguez to that mix, one of the surprises of last year, and that’s four solid arms in the pen. The wildcard of this group is Nick Burdi. A rule 5 guy, Burdi has pitched only pitched 9 1/3 innings this spring but he has 13 K’s, a 1.93 ERA, and a 0.75 WHIP. This could be the front office’s next diamond in the rough. Nick Kingham will make the team as a long reliver for the games when Lyles gets crushed. Add in Liriano, who matches up well against lefties, and the lowly Steven Brault until Lyles returns and there’s your seven relievers. The bullpen should be the strength of the team. They could be an elite unit. Time will tell, especially given the volatility of relievers, but if this season turns out to be a success, pitching will most likely be the catalyst.

You finished 82-80 last year and, depending on when Polanco returns, I think this is a better team. I think a full year of Archer and Taillon in ace form makes a big difference. I think getting Kang back to add power to the lineup makes a big difference. Is it possible you end up at .500 or below? Yes.  Very. But I think this could be an 85 to 90 win team which might mean a trip to the playoffs. For that to happen, a lot of things will have to go right. I know this letter comes off much more positive than I would have first made you believe. The problem is you did not do everything in your power to put the team in the best position to win. Maybe you think Mitch Keller will be up soon? But you had a solid fifth starter that you traded away as a salary dump. Jose Iglesias signed a minor league deal with the Reds. You could have at least brought him in to challenge EGon and Newman. It’s hard to take you seriously when you say your goal is to win a World Series but then you make decisions like this. I’m not saying you need to fork over 330 million to Bryce Harper. I’m just saying pay Nova nine million for one year to be your fifth starter. Any time I hear Nutting, Coonelly, or even Huntington talk, I don’t believe a word they say. It’s hard to be in a relationship when there is no trust. This offseason was as half assed as they come. You are 27th in payroll, only in front of the Marlins and Orioles (who are both in a total rebuild) and the Rays (who perpetually don’t spend a dime) so that’s nothing to hang your hat on. If you don’t perform well out of the gate, you better do something drastic like extend Taillon because you could quickly lose your fan base. There are reasons to be positive but there are equally as many reasons to be furious. This is why I just can’t do it anymore. I love you. I will always love you. But I need some space. I’ll still write you (mostly whenever you do something infuriating) and I’ll never stop watching. I can’t believe I’ve been writing you these letters for six years. Six! Wow! It all started in 2013. Your greatest season since 1992. It’s amazing where we were then to where we are now. I hope this doesn’t ruin opening day which, regardless of situation, is always a great day. Just remember, even if you aren’t getting letters from me, I’ll be watching. I’ll always be watching. I love you and that will never change. So long, for now.                                                                                                                                                                                Love Always,

                                                                                 Brad                              

P.S. stands for Please Spend. Please lock up Jameson Taillon to a long-term deal. With the way free agency went this offseason, everyone and their mother are signing extensions to avoid free agency. It’s the hot thing to do right now so hop on the bandwagon. It’s a no-brainer especially given how long it will take him to hit free agency. He should be here through the Mitch Keller and KeBryan Hayes promotions. Those two, plus maybe Cole Tucker, could prove to be stars. Having Taillon anchor that rotation for the next seven years is the right call. You didn’t spend any legitimate money this offseason. This is the least you could do for the fan base…

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You Are Officially Eliminated, Pittsburgh Pirates

My Dearest Pittsburgh Pirates,

I know, I know. I’m late. I’ve been a little under the weather and haven’t felt up to writing. No, this isn’t some passive aggressive way to punish you for officially being eliminated from the post season this week. I was seriously sick. You actually put together a nice week. You swept the Kansas City Royals at home to get them across that 100 loss threshold. You weren’t as successful in the final homestand of the season losing two out of three to the Milwaukee Brewers. The season finale at PNC Park was particularly ugly losing 13-6 in a game that featured you giving up a three-run wild pitch. You never cease to amaze me. You’ve played half of your series in Chicago already and have won the first two. That’s something I wouldn’t have expected when you weren’t ridiculously injured. With the Miami rain makeup on October 1st being cancelled, that means you will only play 161 games this season instead of the usual 162. You are 80-76 which means you are only one win away from having a winning season. This season obviously wasn’t everything you or I wanted it to be, but it’s shown upside and potential. It would be nice to cap off 2018 with a winning season. You didn’t have one for twenty years so, while that’s never the ultimate goal, that isn’t nothing. While you are already looking ahead to next year, it would be nice to finish out healthy and strong.

Speaking of health, you now had two significant injuries hit the pitching rotation this week. Chad Kuhl had Tommy John surgery this past week which means he is out for the entire 2019 season. You and him lived in denial for the last few months probably seeing if there was any improvement in order to avoid surgery. That didn’t happen. 14-16 months of recovery means we will see him in 2020 with a long road back to the major league level. With Nick Kingham getting racked in a spot start on Sunday, the rotational depth for next season looks shaky. The other injury is Joe Musgrove whose season is over. He’s dealing with a stress reaction on the front of his pelvic bone and an abdominal wall muscle strain. I don’t know what the hell that means but apparently they will see how it progresses in the next six weeks to see if it requires surgery. That doesn’t sound like something that should carry in to next year, but surgery is surgery so you never know. Musgrove put together a fine first campaign with you, putting up a 4.06 ERA, a 3.58 FIP, and a 1.18 WHIP. Not bad at all for his first full season as a starter. He looks like the only quality part of the Cole trade especially with four more years of control. Let’s just hope that we don’t add him to the list of people missing the start of next season because there’s a lot to be excited about with him.

Speaking of excitement, Pablo Reyes is making quite a name for himself. He was promoted with other September call ups and has played well enough to be an everyday starter for the rest of this season. Polanco’s injury has given him the chance to start in RF every day. His value could really be in his versatility given that he can play both corner outfield spots, 2B, and 3B. Since September 1st, he has splits of .357/.426/.595 for a 1.021 OPS in only 42 at bats. He also has three homers in that time. Reyes wasn’t exactly an offensive force in the minors this year. In AAA this year, he had splits of .289/.341/.435 for a .776 OPS in 420 at bats with 8 homers and 36 RBIs. Not exactly crushing it. He did add 13 stolen bases which isn’t a bad bonus. I don’t know yet if he’s a legitimate candidate for the bench next season but with most of our available money this offseason going to prospective infield starters, it would be nice to have some other options. There’s a distinct possibility this is a rare offensive streak that could be gone before we know it. He does seem to have a nice, compact swing and the ability to be a difference maker. It’s early but he reminds me a little of a young Josh Harrison. That might be an overstatement as utility players go, but he’s been fun to watch so far.

Speaking of JHay, one big moment happened this week. PNC Park said goodbye to Jordy Mercer and JHay, two players unlikely to return next season. Mercer has always had a steady glove and was very helpful in the 2013-2015 playoff run. His WAR in 2013 and 2014 were 1.9 and 2.8 respectively. I’ll always appreciate the consistency he provided at shortstop which can be a hard thing to find. Thanks for the run, Jordy. JHay was marred the last couple years with injuries, a less than stellar bat, and an inflated contract. Before that, JHay was the most electric player on the team. He was a ball player by every definition of the term. He played every position, sparked rallies, and always had clutch hits. The stage never seemed too big for him. Everyone will always talk about the two different times he brilliantly maneuvered a rundown in a perfect depiction of intelligence and athleticism. In 2014, one of his two All Star seasons, he was arguably your most important player and led you to the playoffs finishing the season with a 5.5 WAR and 9th in MVP voting, unheard of for him before that season. Other than Cutch at his peak, JHay was my favorite Pirate. I know the ‘blue collar Pittsburgh player’ label gets thrown around a lot, but he really exemplified it. I’ll always root for good things for JHay. He was a hard worker and a likeable star.  I’ll miss you, JHay. Thanks for everything...

 The final week of the season is upon us. It’s actually basically half over thanks to my delay. You play two more games against the Chicago Cubs, who are still fighting for the division with only a half game lead in the division and a chance to help send them to Wildcard game instead of a division championship. You end the season with a three-game series in Cincinnati with the Reds. The rest of this week will be about getting to a winning season. Then you can start to look ahead to the offseason and 2019, where there’s an actual reason for excitement. This offense needs a lot of help but it’s always easier to find hitting then it is pitching. With the rotation and even the bullpen basically set, there are reasons to be optimistic. I’ll get into that more next week. For now, let’s just finish out strong and, most importantly, healthy. The only disappointment recently has been the seriousness of the injuries that occurred down the stretch. We can’t afford anymore of those so PLEASE be careful. I beg you. Have a good final week and I’ll talk to you soon.

                                      I Just Don’t Want Anymore Bad Things To Happen,

                                                                              Brad

P.S. stands for Pittsburgh Steelers who got an ugly but much needed win on Monday night over the Tampa Bay Bucs. The offense and defense played a terrific first half getting them out to a large lead. They squandered that in the second half thanks to bad offense, bad defense, and an absurd amount of penalties. It was an ugly game to watch but all that matters is the W. This week the Steelers (1-1-1) face the division rival Baltimore Ravens (2-1) at Heinz Field on Sunday Night Football. It’s a huge game, like every Ravens game usually is, so here’s hoping they can clean up their play and keep the offense rolling.

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You Are Average, Pittsburgh Pirates

You’re nothing if not consistent. And you prove time and time again to be consistently average. After a 3-3 week, you remain smack dab at .500 with a record of 74-74. You lost two out of three to the Cardinals, who now find themselves tied with the Dodgers for the second Wildcard spot. They allowed that to happen by losing six of their last ten. What a shame. You followed that up by taking two out of three from the team with the top spot in the Wildcard race, the Milwaukee Brewers. You have had their number this year, but they just performed better mostly because of their stacked lineup. The race is heating up and your only role in it is to play spoiler. Even with you winning the series against the Brewers, they still have a three game lead in the Wildcard and are only 2 ½ games back in the division. It’s starting to look like the worst-case scenario for them is the Wildcard game at home.  Worst case scenario for you was a random injury to your best hitter that could jeopardize his ability to be ready in time for the start of the 2019 season. Well…

That Gregory Polanco injury that was originally reported as a significant knee bone bruise and a shoulder injury evolved this week. It turns out he dislocated his shoulder which required surgery that necessitates a 7-9 month recovery period. That means Polanco could be ready to return at the beginning of next season, at the earliest, and potentially not until June. This is about as bad as I could have imagined. You already are light in the hitting department and to lose Polanco for possibly half a season is a disaster.  Even if he’s ready by the beginning of April, that probably means he’s missed all of Spring Training so it’s unlikely he’ll be ready to start. He’ll have to go through his own truncated version of Spring Training to get himself in baseball shape. This makes your need to sign an outfielder this off season even greater. Dickerson came back to life a little bit this week, but he’s been so abysmal lately that you need more options. Sign an outfielder, start them while Polanco gets healthy, and then you could bench Dickerson if he’s struggling when Polanco returns. Even if Dickerson is hitting, we saw the benefits earlier this year of having a fourth outfielder. If these guys can get more days off, maybe they’ll be less likely to get hurt. Signing a free agent outfielder was originally supposed to be a luxury for depth when Polanco was healthy and Dickerson was ripping. Now with Austin Meadows gone and no outfield prospects close to the majors, you HAVE to sign an outfielder. It’s not an option anymore.

Adam Frazier crashed back to Earth this week. The person who has all but been handed the starting second base spot for next season gave us reasons again to doubt that is the best option. He went 6/29 this week for a .207 batting average. His OBP was .207 and his slugging was .276 making for a .483 OPS. He’s still bating .278 on the season with a .787 OPS so it’s not like his numbers are suddenly garbage. That’s still third best on the team which says less about Frazier and more about the lack of offense you possess. Kevin Neman has looked a little better at the plate, so you could do a platoon situation by starting Frazier against righties and Newman against lefties. When Frazier is hot, he starts regardless. If Newman gets hot and Frazier is going through a cold phase, then you swap them. Ideally, I wouldn’t want to rely on those two at all and I would want you to sign a free agent. The problem is there aren’t many good options on free agency and you have other spots to fill as well. Making a trade isn’t out of the question but you don’t have a lot of enticing assets that would net you anything worthwhile. Frazier has shown some good signs, so he might just have to be the concession you make when deciding to sign people this offseason. You do have some money to spend but not enough to cover every hole you have in the lineup which now seems like quite a lot.

It’s crazy where you sit right now. From a pitching standpoint, you could argue your roster is set for next year, aside from maybe adding a long reliever to the bullpen. The offense, however, now appears to only have four legitimate starters for next season. One has health issues with concussions (Cervelli), one just went through an epic slump and will only definitely be a starter because of a lack of options (Dickerson), and one had the most disappointing season on the team this year (Bell). The fourth is Marte who is solid though I’d love to see his OPS a little higher than .765. That leaves three infield positions, an outfield position, and bench spots. There was a time where it seemed like you might be able to spend money on the bench only, but now it will most likely be filled by guys like Osuna, Newman, Luplow, Diaz, and maybe Kramer. All very young and inexperienced so certainly not ideal. Your payroll looks to be about 80 million right now so it’s reasonable to believe the highest you would be willing to go is 100 million. That means you have twenty million to spend on a starting OF, SS, and a 3B. I’m not even saying 2B right now because that already seems difficult to imagine you finding three starters for a combined 20 million next year. You have a lot of work to do this offseason and how you handle it could determine the next three years. No pressure…

This week begins with an easier opponent followed by another division rival. You start a three-game series at home against the last place Kansas City Royals. They already have 97 losses on the season so if you sweep them, you can put them at 100. Their offense struggles more than your’s does so this could be an opportunity to put yourself over .500. After a day off Thursday, you play yet another series against the Milwaukee Brewers. I know they are most likely going to the playoffs and you are not, but I really do enjoy watching that team lose. This is the second to last week. It’s been a roller coaster of a season to say the least. It would be nice to finish strong and, most importantly, finish healthy. Moves like sitting Keone Kela for the remainder of the season to due usage makes perfect sense. I’d be fine doing the same with others. Play hard but play smart and safe. That’s the motto for the last two weeks. Finish strong and I’ll talk to you next week. Love you!!!

                                                              Desperate For A Clean Bill Of Health,

                                                                                         Brad

P.S. unfortunately stands for Pittsburgh Steelers which, after yesterday’s game, can only be described as pathetic. The offense showed up for the most part scoring 37 points and keeping them in the game. The defense, on the other hand, was embarrassed time and time again. Bad communication and a lack of execution in every facet led to Patrick Mahomes, in his third career start, throwing six touchdowns and putting up 42 points to beat you by five. The same excuses have been happening since the Shazier injury and they just aren’t justifiable anymore. This needs to turn around quickly or defensive coordinator Keith Butler might not make it to the bye week…

[iloveyoupittsburghpirates-blog]

You Are So Streaky, Pittsburgh Pirates

My Dearest Pittsburgh Pirates,

Well, you certainly know how to beat up on the bad teams. This week you played two last place teams, the Cincinnati Reds and the Miami Marlins. The only thing that stopped you from winning all six games was the weather. You were rained out yesterday so you couldn’t sweep all three from the Marlins. You scored 25 runs in the five games this week so the offense finally started producing again. The pitching remained solid only giving up ten runs in those five games. It’s the same old thing. You look like world beaters for a week and then the next week you look like you are the worst team in baseball. It’s what streaky teams do and typically streaky teams are only so successful. They are usually about .500 which is exactly what you are right now. You are 71-71 with twenty games to go. You are an average team. That’s okay because you are an average team on the rise with a rotation and bullpen that are young and improving. There is reason for optimism going into 2019 if you can improve the roster.

Gregory Polanco played his last game of the season this week. Polanco hurt his knee sliding into second and stayed down for a while before hobbling off. I was concerned it could be something that would carry into next season. It’s a significant bone bruise to his left knee that requires six weeks of rest. He injured his shoulder on the play too. That’s a relief as far as him being ready for next season. It’s a little disheartening to see a guy who has trouble staying healthy get hurt yet again. Polanco ended up putting together his best year of his career. 23 homers, 81 RBI’s, 12 steals, splits of .254/.340/.499 for an .839 OPS. His OPS+ was 127 and he ended with a WAR of 1.9. It’s not superstar level numbers but that’s a pretty damn good season from someone we were all losing faith in during his terrible slump earlier this year. These are good stats but if they are the stats of your best player, that’s a problem. Even if you have another player or two with the exact same stats it can work, but not when he’s your only batter to his over twenty homers this season. That’s a problem when you play in a league dominated by the home run. It’s something you desperately need to address this offseason. Maybe Jeff Branson should finally embrace the launch angles.

It’s not much of a debate who the biggest disappointment was this season. That would be Josh Bell by a landslide. Going into this week, he had only hit eight homers after hitting twenty-six last season. He hit two this week to get him up to ten, but even this week hasn’t been great. He did walk seven times so that explains his .370 OBP and the two homers give him a .500 slugging percentage which means he had an .870 OPS this week. He also batted .150 with three hits in twenty at bats. Over his last 30 games, he’s batting .211 with a .753 OPS which is funny because that’s his exact OPS for the season right now. Bell’s defense has improved but is still problematic based on his negative defensive WAR, so if he doesn’t hit more he’s basically Colin Moran. He can’t field, he’s slow, and he has middling offensive potential. Your corner infielders are supposed to provide a lot of offense in most lineups. With Freese gone, you are looking at next season with two corner infielders who have combined to hit eighteen homers this year. That as many as Starling Marte has and he’s not usually looked to for power numbers. After last season, Bell will be giving a full opportunity to bounce back next season and that’s an opportunity he should get given his pedigree. That means you need to add a third baseman and possibly an insurance policy for Bell. Maybe a righty hitter with some pop who rips lefties well. It would give you a nice platoon option, if nothing else. You can’t afford to go another season with production like this from your corner infielders. You do and you might be looking at another .500 season.

Corey Dickerson has had a tough fall from grace. He was putting together a terrific season and was a main reason why you felt comfortable trading Austin Meadows to the Rays in the Chris Archer deal. He should have arguably been an All Star with the first half he had. Then he pulled him hamstring and spent a little under two weeks on the disabled list. Since then, he’s been a totally different player, in the bad way. In his last 30 games, his splits are .211/.221/.275 for an abysmal .496 OPS. He struck out 26 times in 103 at bats during that span and walked twice. This is what happened to him last year. Had a terrific first half, made the All Star game, and then couldn’t buy a hit in the second half. It could be that he’s playing hurt so that’s affecting his performance. Either way, I assume it will put a pause on all of that extension talk. He’s making 5.95 million this year and has one year left of arbitration before becoming a free agent after next season. He should get a pay raise to about 7 or 8 million for 2019. It’s hard to know which Dickerson will show up. You have limited options right now so you will definitely pay him next season but the long term future with the team is cloudy. Like Polanco, he doesn’t hit lefties well so you want might to look into getting a fourth outfielder who punishes lefties. Then you can give either your lefties a day off once in a while. You hope Dickerson can bounce back next season, but with not a lot of outfield prospects near the majors, things have become a little dire.

This week isn’t so friendly. You hit the road for two series against two division rivals fighting for playoff spots. It could be fun to play spoilers. You start a three-game series today against the St. Louis Cardinals. They finally cooled off after their ridiculous run that got them back into the playoff picture. They currently hold the second Wildcard spot with a one game lead over the Dodgers and three games over the Diamondbacks. The Rockies only lead the Dodgers by a game in their division so there are a lot of teams still vying for those final two spots. It would be lovely to hurt the Cardinals chances of making the playoffs. After a day off Thursday, you head to Milwaukee to play the Brewers, who currently hold the number one Wildcard spot. They have a two game lead over the Cardinals and are only two games behind the Cubs for the division lead. These are huge games for these two teams that you don’t like and you could really put a damper on their chances if you can win some games. It would be fun to see that happen. The rest of this season is about seeing some of the younger guys and staying healthy. Obviously the Polanco injury sets a bad tone but you can’t just bench everyone and wrap them in bubble wrap to protect them. It’s not realistic. Though with a couple guys, I might prefer it. Keep getting better and try to ruin your rivals week. Good luck!

                                                                          Remaining Hot And Cold,

                                                                                           Brad

P.S. can stand for many things in this instance. Pretty Sloppy, Pretty Sh**ty, but it actually stands for Pittsburgh Steelers. They are back and played their first game yesterday in terrible weather conditions. They tied the Cleveland Browns 21-21 in what can only be described as an ugly game. The officiating was bad, the Steelers’ six turnovers were bad, and the Browns are supposed to be bad. They are certainly improved but they will need to right the ship quickly. The high-flying Kansas City Chiefs offense comes to Pittsburgh for the home opener next weekend. Another performance like this and you will be 0-1-1 with either Baltimore or Cincinnati (they play each other Thursday night) on top of the division at 2-0…

[iloveyoupittsburghpirates-blog]

It’s Time To Move Forward, Pittsburgh Pirates

My Dearest Pittsburgh Pirates, 

Sorry for the delay on this letter. I was out of town for the long weekend and didn’t have the chance to get it to you. This week was more of the same. While it’s hard to be too upset anymore, because it’s over and you are already looking forward to next year, you still performed below expectations. Facing two playoff caliber teams is never easy especially on the road so I wasn’t terribly surprised when you lost two out of three to both the Cardinals and Braves. Your offense has still been terribly lacking with only eleven runs scored in those six games. You opened it up a bit yesterday beating the Reds 5-1 though you didn’t even pull ahead until late in the game and that was only because of the two people who currently have the best OPS on your team: Gregory Polanco and Adam Frazier. Yes, Adam Frazier. That’s due in part to his 4 for 4 day with three RBI’s, a homer, and he finished a triple short of the cycle. You want a stat I bet you never thought you would see at the beginning of the season? Adam Frazier currently has as many homers as Josh Bell with eight a piece. While that’s a positive sign for the re-emergence of Frazier, it also goes to show you how disappointing of a season Bell has put together. This is where we learn who is a viable option for next season and what needs to be addressed. If you happen to win some games in the process, I wouldn’t be mad about it.

You made a couple of surprise moves this weekend before the waiver trade deadline expired. Adeiny Hechavarria, who you recently acquired, was dealt to the Yankees. That’s not terribly surprising given that you are out of the hunt and you want to give Kevin Newman the opportunity to start every day. The more surprising move was dealing David Freese to the Dodgers and most likely ending his tenure with you. I was under the assumption that you would pick up Freese’s six million dollar option this offseason after how disappointing Colin Moran has played. There’s still a small chance the Dodgers could not pick up the option, he could become a free agent, and you could resign him but that seems very unlikely. With Freese gone, you are in a position now where Colin Moran is your only third baseman. Start him the rest of the season. I’m fine with that to see if he somehow explodes. He CAN’T be your only option there for next season. He has a 0.5 WAR in 371 at bats. That’s not remotely good enough to start. Ke’Bryan Hayes had dominant week in Double-A and could be your everyday starting third baseman in a year or two but you have a window now where you can’t afford to waste a year. Signing someone like a Mike Moustakas, Jed Lowrie, or Asdrubal Cabrera is a short term investment that you need to make this offseason. With how bad Bell has been at first, you can’t afford to go into next season with two corner infield spots that could be total duds in the lineup. You have money so go spend it.  

Trevor Williams is on a historic pace right now. He pitched another 6 2/3 scoreless innings yesterday giving him a 0.74 ERA since the All Star break. The record for lowest ERA after the All Star break was set by Jake Arrieta in 2015 with a 0.75 ERA. You remember that season? He dominated you in the Wildcard game and you haven’t had a winning season since? I thought that might jog your memory. Williams has been unstoppable mixing different pitches at different speeds and placing them perfectly. He now holds a 3.16 ERA for the season and has solidified himself as a starter in this rotation next year. There has been a lot of criticism about your ability to develop pitchers with Gerrit Cole leaving and becoming a Cy Young candidate and even Tyler Glasnow looked great again this weekend going seven strong innings. Those criticisms are extremely valid but you also have to give credit when it’s due. Williams (3.16 ERA, 1.18 WHIP) and Taillon (3.45 ERA, 1.20 WHIP) have put together terrific seasons and if you are going to solely blame the Pirates for not developing the others, which again is valid, then you also need to credit them when pitchers do well. I’m not saying there isn’t a potentially huge issue with your pitcher development. We will have a better idea of the severity once Mitch Keller is ready to be promoted. I just think these are two instances that have seemed to work out very well and it needs to be recognized.

Since you have basically been eliminated from the playoff picture, Kevin Newman has been playing almost everyday at shortstop. It hasn’t gone very well. Newman made a devastating error that helped lose you the game on Saturday. He’s also shown no signs of life at the plate batting .121 with a .346 OPS. It’s only been 33 at bats so it’s hard to truly judge him on that small of a sample size. The problem is he had terrible splits in the minors versus righties with only a .705 OPS. When he faces a lefty, it’s .866 which is good but that makes him a platoon player, not a starter. Newman can be the backup SS next year and get some starts against lefties. You can also sub him in for Frazier late in games if he ends up being your starting 2B next year, which seems likely. You can’t go into next season planning for him to be your everyday shortstop. You just can’t. Even though you traded Hechavarria, you could still bring him back as a free agent. That should be your worst case scenario if you can’t find a better bat on the free agent market. Newman can be your backup middle infielder next year and I’m fine with that. But nothing more.  

This week is much easier than the last two because you are playing two last place teams. You finish out the series with Cincinnati at PNC Park today and tomorrow. You have a day off Thursday before the Miami Marlins come to town. It’s the last month of the season and you are out of the playoff picture. Time to play the young guys to see what they have but it’s also smart to limit the starting pitchers. Guys like Musgrove, Taillon, and Williams have already exceeded their innings pitched total from years past. The last thing you want is one of these guys getting hurt for a totally unnecessary reason. Nick Kingham started for Nova on Sunday who had to deal with a family matter. Kingham should basically be used as a sixth starter for this month in order to limit the others.  Overall, your rosters have expanded so there’s no reason for anyone to get overplayed at this point. The only thing that matters now is for the younger guys to get some development time and to keep everyone healthy. Go have fun and try to get better as a team. Then this offseason I hope you will open your checkbook to get better as a team. Have a good week and talk to you next weekend!

                                                                        Looking Ahead To The Future,

                                                                                           Brad

P.S. stands for playing still which I’m referring to a couple former Buccos. Cutch’s mediocre season in San Francisco was cut short when he was traded to the New York Yankees this week where another prominent former Pirate, Neil Walker, now resides. I happened to be in Oakland yesterday to watch the A’s play the Yankees so I got to see them in person. Walker struck out in a big situation and Cutch had one hit, stole a base, and scored in the loss. It was funny to see them on the field together again playing for a contender. Just thought I’d mention it…

[iloveyoupittsburghpirates-blog]

You Broke Me, Pittsburgh Pirates

My Dearest Pittsburgh Pirates,

Well, that will do it. Might as well circle March 28, 2019 on the calendar because that’s the next time you will play a meaningful game. You had a chance this week to get back into the race and you threw it away. You played two playoff contenders who were ahead of you in the race and you do the same this week. This was your opportunity to gain ground. Instead, you scored two runs in three game against Atlanta leading to a sweep at home. The offense finally found a little life after completely embarrassing itself for seven games in which you scored only seven runs. That was rather difficult to watch. When the offense finally did show up in Milwaukee against the Brewers, their offense showed up as well. Friday night was basically rock bottom for this season but more on that nightmare in a bit. When it was all said and done, done being the key word, you had lost two out of three against the Brewers. That makes for a 1-5 week when you needed it to be at least 5-1. Not exactly stepping up to the plate (pun intended) when the season was on the line. You are now 64-67, you are 13 games back in the division, and you are 8 ½ games back in the Wildcard with seven teams in front of you for the two spots. The season is over. Start looking at how to improve for next year because this one is done.

Friday night’s game broke me. It shouldn’t have been so devastating because it was already nearly impossible for you to make the playoffs after being swept by the Braves. I shouldn’t have been so emotionally invested but I sat through over 5 ½ hours and 15 innings of that game to watch you finally take a two run lead in the top of the 15th after you had tied it in the 9th to send it to extra innings. That’s when Hurdle’s decision to pull Musgrove after four innings so Josh Bell could pinch hit and strike out with the bases loaded really burned you. Every reliver had pitched except Kyle Crick who apparently wasn’t available because of back pain. Brault had thrown four scoreless innings and had batted in the top of the 15th so I assumed he could come back out even after throwing 58 pitches. Apparently, he couldn’t. This is going to be known as the “Clay Holmes season” now. Things have gone downhill since you gave him that spot start in San Francisco (It’s a coincidence because the offense imploded. Pitching him really had very little to do with your collapse.) Now he will be remembered for the half inning that put the nail in the coffin for 2018.  Holmes got the first out but looked a little wild doing so. He proceeded to walk the next guy, then throw a wild pitch, and then another walk. He struck out Ryan Braun so now it was still 6-4, men on first and second, two outs, and pitcher Jordan Lyles coming up. The Brewers were out of position players, so they had to let him bat. Holmes walked him on five pitches. It was ridiculously embarrassing. It got to the point that catcher Elias Diaz wasn’t even giving him signs. He was motioning/begging him to throw it right down the middle and he couldn’t. That loaded the bases. A single by Erik Kratz scored two to tie the game and then another single by Orlando Arcia (and a terrible throw home by Polanco) scored the winning run. That was it. The game, the season, the hope. All gone. I sat in silence for about an hour after it was over. It broke me. The game was actually the perfect microcosm for the whole year. Not very optimistic, then suddenly you seem like you’re destined for great things, but you immediately plunge back to earth. It was quite a ride.

Cue the panic. I’m just going to say it now to get it out of the way. Chris Archer has been undeniably bad since coming over in the deadline deal. He said it himself. He got lit up yesterday for six earned runs in four innings pitched. Since coming over, he’s got a 6.45 ERA, 1.75 WHIP, and hitters are batting .313 against him. That’s worse than bad. His BABIP against is a whopping .377 so there’s reason to believe that will improve. The Pirates are tinkering with the pitches he throws and how he throws them so there were going to be some growing pains. Starting pitching is extremely hard to acquire and to get someone like Archer for this year plus three more isn’t easy to do. This is a guy I’m still very excited about. Yes, Shane Baz was a first-round pick and that’s a big piece to give up. Yes, Austin Meadows has been crushing the ball (7 HRs, 1.002 OPS) in Triple-A since being traded and your offense has struggled terribly on top of it. Yes, Tyler Glasnow looked good in his first couple starts, though he’s leveled out and shown the same tendencies of high pitch counts, too many walks, and the inability to control the running game. Either way, this trade doesn’t look good right now. This season doesn’t matter anyway. Archer can take the rest of this season to iron out the kinks and come back next year ready to be a top of the rotation starter with Jameson Taillon. The risk is still very much worth it because if he gets back to the pitcher he’s been his whole career, which is reasonable to believe, then you have one of the top 20 pitchers in all of baseball. Just try not to panic after five starts because I’m sure a lot of the fan base will.

When looking at the team going into next year, there will obviously be changes that need to be made but maybe players aren’t the only thing that should be considered. The coaching staff has performed questionably at times this season and before you go into this three-year window of potentially being competitive, you might want to consider making changes. I only watch so many other baseball games in a season but whether it’s Rick Scofield or now Joey Cora, you seem to have the worst third base coach in baseball year in and year out. They make mistakes constantly. I can think of three boneheaded mistakes Cora has made in the last month. That’s too many. Jeff Branson, your hitting coach, looked very bad this week with the offense performing beyond inept. They rank 17th in baseball in OPS which isn’t terrible but not exactly something to write home about. When they grind out at bats, they can be a formidable offense. They just don’t seem to do that often enough. Even Ray Searage, who I do want to keep, isn’t void of criticism. Your pitching staff has the most errors and wild pitches in all of baseball. That doesn’t fall squarely on him but that’s got to be something that’s remedied. And then we get to the top with Clint Hurdle. I’ve had issues with him all year and it feels like I have weekly complaints. My one for this week goes back to Friday night’s game when he pinch hit for Musgrove in the 5th inning with the bases loaded. You haven’t been scoring runs and he was desperate for some. Fine. He showed a sense of urgency. Where was that urgency a month ago when you were still in the hunt and he let Alex McRae pitch in a tie game against the Cardinals for three-plus innings? That didn’t even piss me off as much at the time as it does now. He finally starts coaching with desperation after you are basically eliminated from the race? Good timing, Clint. My guess is this entire coaching staff will be back next year, but I’d be down for firing Branson, Cora, and Hurdle. They have just proved to be amateurs on way too many occasions.  

This is where I usually say what’s on the docket for this week and what you need to do in order to get back in this race. Well, that’s all pretty pointless now. You can’t lose today, which is nice, but that’s only because you don’t play. The road trip continues with three games in St. Louis against the red-hot Cardinals starting tomorrow followed by three games in Atlanta against the Braves, you know the team that swept you this week and held you to two runs in three games. If you wanted to even consider the thought of getting back into this thing, you have to win all six games. That would only be enough to ger started. The likelihood of you winning all six games is so miniscule that’s it’s not even worth talking about. Now is the time that you should start auditioning people for next season. Keep playing Adam Frazier at second to see what he’s got. Play Kevin Newman more to see if he’s got any hope of starting. Bring up Kevin Kramer and work him in more. Now’s the time to figure out what you have up the middle next year. Hell, try Kramer third if you want to get bold. I don’t care. With this pitching staff and bullpen, you can compete now. The window is open and the National League doesn’t have a team so dominant that you couldn’t sneak into the running.  Start figuring all this out now so we don’t have to you don’t waste a year of this window trying things out. You showed some potential this season. We will chalk it up to that. Now figure out how that potential comes to fruition in 2019. Good luck, as always. Talk to you next week!

                                                                     Shattered Into A Million Pieces,

                                                                                          Brad

P.S. stands for Pretty Simple. The question is what’s wrong with your offense and what happened during that epic losing streak? The answer remains the same: home runs. Or the lack there of. You rank 24th out of 30 teams in homers and in the NL you rank 12th out of 15. That won’t cut it in a home run driven league. During the seven runs in seven game stretch, you hit two homers total. The walkoff by Frazier against Chicago was one and the other was the meaningless solo shot in the 9th inning of the 6-1 loss to the Braves by Polanco. Clutch hitting comes and goes throughout a season. Home runs are the way to get sure runs and your team doesn’t hit enough. That’s also something you need to address this offseason…

[iloveyoupittsburghpirates-blog]

You Are Hanging On By A Thread, Pittsburgh Pirates

My Dearest Pittsburgh Pirates,

That week could have been catastrophic. It wasn’t though it was still pretty much a disaster. You started the week by losing two very winnable games against the Twins. You let a supposedly lesser team take two from you. That was a terrible way to go into a four-game series against the first place Cubs. If you would have told me that you held the Cubs to four runs in four games, I would have assumed you won at least three and maybe even swept them. If you would have told me we only scored five runs in four games against the Cubs, I would have assumed we got swept and got swept bad. Both are true and we split the series. I guess I can’t be too upset especially when you compare how I feel now to how I felt after we lost the first two games by the exact same score, 1-0. The second 1-0 loss you tied a franchise record by hitting into seven double plays. Way to set records! A 2-4 week is nothing to be happy about considering you are now six games out of the Wildcard race. But a 3-1 win on Saturday and the Adam Frazier walkoff homer yesterday changes the mood. Yesterday, you trailed 1-0 in the 6th so it felt like it was going to be another 1-0 loss. You tied it in the 6th and had runners at 2nd and 3rd with no outs. Didn’t score. You had opportunity after opportunity that you squandered so it felt like it just wasn’t going to happen until Frazier crushed that ball in the bottom of the 11th. I know it only helps you so much in the playoff race but, after this past week, it felt like you, me, and all the fans needed that one. It was cathartic. No time to rest on your laurels. This is a huge week with a huge opportunity to crawl back into this race so you better be ready.

The pitching rotation was phenomenal this week (except for Archer but you are still 2-1 in games he’s started) and was one of the only positives you could take away from this week. It might be time to start getting really excited about this rotation. Trevor Williams had another terrific start this week and Jameson Taillon’s run of great starts continued. I’m confident Archer will come around with all of his talent. The game changer has been Joe Musgrove. We had no clue what we were getting in that Gerrit Cole trade. Since Musgrove’s first start at the end of May, Cole and his numbers are nearly identical. Musgrove has a 3.31 ERA right now with a 1.18 WHIP. That’s damn good if you are a number two starter and he’s technically your number three. His FIP is 3.55 so it’s not even like he’s pitching way over his head. He throws consistent strikes, stays out of the middle of the plate, and he has four solid pitches to keep the batters off balance. The guy can also hit some which is far from a necessity for a pitcher but it’s certainly an added bonus. Cole is a free agent after next year. Musgrove won’t be a free agent until after the 2022 season. If Musgrove keeps doing anything like this, that trade could look great even if the other three pieces end up being worthless (which is looking highly possible.) He was a first-round pick so the talent is there and it seems like he’s figured out how to use it.

Jordy Mercer hit the DL this which caused an interesting situation. You promoted first-round pick Kevin Newman from Triple-A which got the fan base excited. You didn’t start him in any games yet and instead started recently acquired Adeiny Hechavarria. Hechavarria is a two-time Gold Glove runner up but can’t hit much at all. Newman throughout the minors has hit lefties much better than righties. The Cubs started lefties in three of the four games this series and Newman didn’t start once. Hechavarria hits lefties better too for his career but it’s still pretty awful (.617 OPS vs righties, .701 OPS vs lefties), so that shows how much they value his defense. If that’s true, I could see an argument for still starting Hechavarria once Mercer is healthy. Hechavarria has a 1.1 WAR while Mercer has a 0.3 WAR (On a side note, JHay has a 0.1 and Frazier has a 1.4 plus he has a .799 OPS compared to JHay’s at .663) so the natural thought process would be to start Hechavarria everyday (and Frazier). The treatment of Newman in this series makes me think you aren’t that high on him anymore. Or at least that it’s unlikely he will be your everyday SS next year. Hechavarria is a free agent after this year but he’s very affordable. My guess is you will resign him and plan to start him at SS everyday unless Newman or Kevin Kramer start hitting the cover off the ball.

You got dominated recently because you faced a bevy of left handed starters. Your three best hitters (OPS vs RHP/LHP: Polanco .849/.680, Dickerson .865/.693,  Marte .815/.687) are much weaker against lefties so it’s easy to understand why you would struggle against them. You need to find a fourth outfielder this offseason who has great career numbers against lefties. Those types of players are out there. I have to assume you will be making changes on the infield (the starters for most of the year have been Bell, JHay, Mercer, and Moran. They have a combined WAR of 0.8.) and Mercer and JHay are the most likely to go with Freese stepping up along with his six million dollar option next year and Bell still with so much upside. I think a possible move to keep in mind would be signing Brian Dozier. He played for the Twins before being traded to the Dodgers at the deadline. He’s having a down year with a .727 OPS. Since being traded at the deadline, he has a .826 OPS. His two years before this he hit 42 and 34 homers with OPS’ of .886 and .856. Even in a down year, he has 19 homers. He’s 31 years old so he’s obviously on the down side of his career, but that also makes him more affordable. His career OPS against lefties is .865. You need someone else who can dominate lefties. Your team doesn’t have the MVP candidate that a lot of these other teams have. You need to add more pop to this lineup and a 2B who can jack 25 homers is a really nice commodity. Kevin Kramer hits righties better. You can bring him up to platoon to give Dozier days off here and there. You sign Hechavarria and then him and Newman can battle it out for SS. This seems like a realistic option with a lot of upside. You should consider it.

These next two weeks will decide the season if it’s not already decided. You play three teams that are all ahead of you in the Wildcard race right now. This week is three at home against Atlanta and three on the road in Milwaukee. The week after is three in St. Louis and three in Atlanta. If you want to get back into this race, you need to win about 9 of these 12 games. When you’re six games out, you need to beat the teams that are ahead of you. That’s the only way to make up for losing streaks like you were just on or when you have a stretch earlier in the season where you win seven times in twenty-five games. You are a streaky team. That rarely makes for a playoff team. There’s still time to change that. You need another win streak but then you need to start winning on a more consistent basis. There are no other options right now. If you still want to be a contender, then you need beat the teams ahead of you and you need to beat them good. Otherwise, September won’t matter. Yesterday’s win was huge. Your rotation and bullpen have been fantastic. There is a chance of getting back into this but you are going to have to play some impeccable baseball.  It’s a long shot but it’s not impossible. Please pop off a bunch of wins and rub in my face that I even remotely doubted you. Prove me wrong! Good luck!

                                                                                 Still Holding Out Hope,

                                                                                             Brad

P.S. stands for Please Stop and this could become the weekly title for this section if I wanted it to be. First-round pick from last year, starting pitcher Shane Baz, was announced as the PTBNL in the Chris Archer deal. People lost their minds. Suddenly, that was too much give up for a pitcher who, yes, hasn’t had a great start yet in three tries since coming over, but is top 25 in categories like WAR, FIP, and xFip over the last three seasons. You paid for an ace. Baz is a top 100 prospect and your third best prospect, but he was in the Rookie League. The earliest he could be in Pittsburgh would be around 2023. Glasnow had a couple good starts and people freaked. He walked three and gave up five runs on Saturday. He’s still the same guy. I said from the start that if Keller or Hayes (even with his injury today falling on his shoulder) aren’t part of this deal then I would be thrilled. I remain thrilled…

[iloveyoupittsburghpirates-blog]

You Need To Show More Urgency, Pittsburgh Pirates

My Dearest Pittsburgh Pirates,

This week could have gone so much better. After taking two out of three from the Rockies in Colorado, a team currently ahead of you in the Wildcard race, you seemed to have a lot of momentum going to San Francisco for a four-game series with the Giants. You crushed them in game one and shut them out in game three. Game two will be known for the rest of the season as the “Holmes game” that I will talk more about later. Suffice it to say, you gave up on what was a very winnable game. Game four was a terrible Jordy Mercer error, a lack of any offense until the last two innings, and some bad luck for Joe Musgrove who gave up two runs in one inning on three infield singles. Those type of games happen especially when you were facing a starting pitcher who has been dominant so far in his career. That’s what makes the “Holmes game” so frustrating. If you would have won yesterday, you take three out of four on the road and I become less upset about that decision. It’s hard to ever be upset winning three out of four on the road. But when you lose yesterday, now you split a series from a lesser team in which you didn’t even have to face their ace, Madsion Bumgarner. It feels like a missed opportunity when 16 of your next 18 games are against teams ahead of you in the standings. That gives you a chance to make up ground, but you need to beat up on the bad teams. One game doesn’t make or break a season, unless you end up one game out of the playoffs, but the only way to look at the that weekend series is that you blew a prime chance.

Now about the “Holmes game”. Obviously the most controversial move of the week was pushing all of your starting pitchers back a day and giving minor leaguer Clay Holmes a start against the Giants. The theory was based on stats that showed that pitchers typically struggle in their next start after pitching in the high altitude in Denver, so they pushed everyone back a day. The problem with that theory is that teams almost never make a move like that, so you really have no data showing what good an extra day of actually does for a pitcher. The bigger problem was how bad Clay Holmes pitched. He had been dominant over his last nine starts in the minors, but Friday he struggled mightily giving up seven earned runs in 2 2/3 innings. If it worked, you look smart. It didn’t so you look stupid. The more infuriating aspect to me was that in a 7-2 game, in the fourth inning, you had runners on second and third with two outs. Casey Sadler, who relieved Holmes, was coming up and you felt like you had to let him bat to protect the bullpen. I understand that thought process, but then you ended up getting back in the game later so you look even dumber. Again, I’m sure statically the likelihood of winning a game you trail by five runs is so small that it makes sense to save the bullpen arms for a game you have a better chance of winning. The issue there is that then you are giving up on games that you potentially could still win. The game was an unmitigated disaster especially when you let Sadler bat a second time with a runner in scoring position. I can understand your reasoning, but the fact is that it cost you a game when you are fighting for your life to stay in the hunt. You can make any excuse you want, but the fact is it was the completely wrong decision and it blew up in your face.

Trevor Williams has been the best pitcher in baseball over the last month. That’s not saying much but he does have the best ERA in baseball since the All Star break and he’s legitimately your number four starter right now. You have a league leading thirteen shutouts this season and Williams has started seven of those games. That’s astounding. His ERA is 3.66 for the year, he has ten wins, and his WHIP is a respectable 1.24. His FIP is 4.26 so there’s reason to believe there will be regression. If Williams is able to stay in this realm of consistency, your rotation could become very good very quickly if your adding him to Taillon, Archer, and Musgrove. If Mitch Keller reaches his potential and joins the rotation at some point next season, look out. Williams still doesn’t get a lot of strikeouts so there’s reason for concern there. He’s 16th in all of baseball in soft contact percentage and 10th best in hard contact percentage. Those are statistics that make you believe this could be sustainable. Williams has arguably been your most consistent pitcher this season and if he can continue at this level, he might be a staple in this rotation for the next few years.

The second base and shortstop spots are going to be the most talked about positions this off-season. The likelihood that Jordy Mercer and/or Josh Harrison coming back next season seems highly unlikely when you consider their combined WAR right now is 0.1 (JHay is 0.1 and Mercer is 0.0.) I like those guys well enough, particularly JHay, but that stat is laughable. The question then becomes what do you do about those positions. We have discussed the possibility of Triple-A prospects Kevin Newman and Kevin Kramer coming up to take those spots but given they have yet to play a major league game, and it doesn’t seem likely they will this year, there’s is absolutely no way you can rely on them. That’s also if one of the them doesn’t become the PTBNL from the Archer trade. What seems to make a lot of sense as an insurance policy would be to resign recently acquired Adeiny Hechavarria. Even with a .266 batting average and a .655 OPS, he currently has a 1.3 WAR in only 63 games played. His defense is elite and that and catcher are the two positions where if you have a top-tier defender you are willing to give up some offense for that. That feels particularly true after Mercer’s two errors yesterday, one of which set up what turned out to be the winning run for the Giants. The other interesting component has been Adam Frazier’s resurgence. Frazier has a 1.5 WAR for this season and a 0.4 defensive WAR, which is much better than I would have guessed. He’s slashing .285/.350/.435 for a .785 OPS and if he can keep that OPS in that range, he’s a viable option . Given his diving stop that kept the tying run from scoring in one of the Colorado wins and a beautiful running catch down the first baseline yesterday, he seems to be becoming more reliable defensively. Unless you sign a free agent, which seems unlikely, I wouldn’t be surprised if next year you go with Frazier, Hechavarria, Newman, and Kramer on the roster and play who hits.

This week should be challenging. You get a day off today, which makes not using your bullpen more in Friday’s game and pinch hitting for Sadler either time even more frustrating. Tomorrow you head to Minnesota for a two- game series against the struggling Twins. Your two best pitchers, Taillon and Archer, start those two games but the Twins best pitcher, Jose Berrios, will start against Archer on Wednesday. I wouldn’t say winning both games is a must, but it would be awfully helpful. That’s mostly because after that the Chicago Cubs come to Pittsburgh for a four-game series. They are first place in your division and they have the best record in the NL. You are currently eight games behind them for the division. The likelihood of you catching them is less than slim to none. You are five games back in the Wildcard with Philly and Milwaukee holding the top two spots. The Dodgers, Rockies, and Cardinals are still ahead of you as well. There needs to be a larger sense of urgency. There wasn’t from the analytics department or the coaching staff this week. That needs to change immediately. You are still in the hunt, but it only takes one bad week to sink you. Focus, play hard, and everyone just be smarter. That doesn’t seem like too much to ask. Have a great week!

                                                       Trying To Let The “Holmes Game” Go,

                                                                                    Brad

P.S. stands for pretty sh***y and that’s how Colin Moran has played lately. He only had one extra base hit in two months before a triple this weekend. His respectable numbers for most of the season have tapered and now his .268/.336/.391 slash line for a .727 OPS looks below mediocre. When you add in that he is one of the slowest players in baseball and that his range at third base is an embarrassment, he becomes worthless real fast. With David Freese’s impressive performance recently, Moran should be relegated to more of a back-up and picking up Freese’s six million dollar option for next season is a necessity. Hopefully, it’s just the struggles of a rookie but I’m happier than ever that you didn’t lose 3B Ke’Bryan Hayes, your second-best prospect, in the Archer deal.

[iloveyoupittsburghpirates-blog]

You Are All In, Pittsburgh Pirates

My Dearest Pittsburgh Pirates,

The impossible happened this week. If you would have told me a month ago we would be in this situation, I would have laughed at you and said there’s a zero percent chance that happens. That eleven game winning streak changed your entire outlook for the next three years. At the trade deadline, you traded for arguably the best starting pitcher and best relief pitcher available. Keone Kela and, even more unbelievably, Chris Archer are part of your team and will be for the next few years. I’ll dig more into those trades in a bit. The actual performance on the field this week left something to be desired. You split a two-game series with the Cubs which I have a hard time being upset about. Even though it was at home, that’s one of the best teams in the league, so I can live with the split. The Cardinals then came to town with the red hot bat of Matt Carpenter. He homered in all three games in the series. After winning a crazy one on Friday, you dropped the next two games thanks to questionable coaching and no timely hitting. You are now 57-55. You are 7 ½ games back in the division and fives games back in the Wildcard with the Cardinals and Nationals having leaped over you. There are now five teams ahead of you for the final Wildcard spot and that doesn’t include the team that currently holds that spot. You’re going to have to play better if you want to stay in this thing and your upcoming schedule makes that possible.

I can’t believe you traded for Chris Archer. I was floored the day it happened. I kept saying I won’t believe it until I actually see him in uniform even after it was announced. Once it was confirmed you got him, then the big question became the return. Would you have to give up Mitch Keller or Ke’Bryan Hayes, your top two prospects? How outlandish could this return be? You managed to pull it off without trading either of them. You did, however, send them Austin Meadows, who people are still very high on, and Tyler Glasnow , who has terrific upside if he could ever get his accuracy under control. The third player in the deal is a Player To Be Named Later, but GM Neal Huntington did say that it would be a “significant piece.” It won’t be Keller or Hayes, so for me that’s still a major win. Archer’s numbers this season have been rather pedestrian (4.31 ERA and 1.385 WHIP) though his FIP was 3.62 so that means he’s pitching better than his numbers show. His first month was rough but since then he had been dominant. He also pitches in the AL East which has the most hitter friendly parks in all of baseball. Archer’s career ERA against the AL East is 4.02 (and 4.89 this year), but against all other divisions his career ERA is 3.40. His first start didn’t go well (4 ER and 4 BB) but I’m willing to blame that on jitters. Pitching coach Ray Searage has had success improving already established pitchers in the past and I imagine this will be no different. The most impressive part of the deal is how long Archer will be under contract. He has this year and next under contract and then two option years. That means you control him through the 2021 season at a very reasonable price. Your rotation lacked a true strikeout pitcher and Archer is absolutely that. This was the best thing to happen to this team since Cueto dropped the ball. As far as anything off the field, this reminds me of when you extended Cutch. It was a truly remarkable day and kudos to the front office for pulling the trigger.

The move you made first ended up getting overshadowed by the Archer trade, but it was still a damn good one. Keone Kela, the closer for the Texas Rangers, came over in a deal that sent Taylor Hearn and another Player To Be Named Later to Texas. The PTBNL in this instance sounds like it will be someone who is not one of your top 15 prospects so I’m not too worried about that. Kela has worked out of their bullpen for the last four years. His career ERA is 3.41 and his career WHIP is 1.14. His career K/9 is 11.1. Kela throws in the high 90’s with a wipeout curveball. He is still in arbitration for this year plus two more years. He will be a free agent after the 2020 season. Adding him to a bullpen that has Vasquez, Crick, Sanchez, and Rich Rod will make this bullpen one of the deeper and more dominant pens in all of baseball. You might need to look at adding a better long relief option now that you have traded Glasnow and sent Brault back to Triple-A because he’s forgotten how to throw strikes. That was made very obvious watching Alex McRae (who?) blow a tied game on Saturday. Long relief aside, this Kela move bolstered your bullpen in a big way. It’s crazy to think that it was not that long ago when your bullpen seemed to be a huge weakness. Now you have five legit and controllable arms for at least the next couple years. Bravo, yet again, on another great move.

These two trades have set your team up for the next couple years. With Austin Meadows gone, it’s seems likely that you will approach Corey Dickerson about a contract extension. He’s signed through next year anyway so your still set in LF for now. The two positions you will need to figure out this offseason will be 2B and SS. JHay and Mercer will likely be gone after this year and, while Adam Frazier has been on absolute fire since getting called back up, his defense is a liability at second so the only way it would be worth starting him is if he keeps ripping.  The good news is you should have a payroll of only about 80 million as of right now. After the Archer move, there’s no reason to believe that you couldn’t get that payroll back to around 100 million. One way to help that would be to try and trade Ivan Nova this offseason. He’s due to make about 9 million next year and his numbers this year (4.49 ERA and 1.34 WHIP) just aren’t up to snuff. He still has value so you might be able to get something in return and, if not, you can at least shed that salary and use it to fill your middle infield. Your rotation has Archer, Taillon, Musgrove, and Trevor Williams. You need one more pitcher which could be Chad Kuhl, if he doesn’t need Tommy John surgery, or Nick Kingham. He was demoted for Archer after being terrible in his last few starts but he still has upside. You could also have someone hold the place until Mitch Keller is ready. There’s still a lot of options if Nova is gone. It seems too risky to rely on the two rookies, Kevin Newman and Kevin Kramer, to be starters on a team trying to compete when they haven’t even played in the majors yet. You will need to address second and short this offseason but, thanks to these deadline moves, that’s about the only things you need to address.

This was a great week. Don’t let the fact that you went 2-3 get you down. These deadline moves were about more than this year. They were about the next three years and taking advantage of this window of talent the way you really didn’t from 2013 to 2015. You realized what had become obvious to everyone else. This team can compete for the next few years if Polanco and Marte keep playing like this. You don’t know what prospects will actually do and your best ones have already come up. So you decided to go all in on these next three plus years and I couldn’t be happier about it. You play playoff contenders the rest of this month so if you can get back on track, you can stay in the hunt. This week you travel west starting with a stop in Colorado to play the Rockies for a three-game series. You have your three best pitchers (Musgrove, Taillon, Archer) going so there’s reason for optimism. You follow that with a trip to San Francisco for a four-game series with the Cutch and the Giants. This is a big week. It’s tough to win on the road but you’re going to need to find a way to remain in striking distance. I just want to say thank you once again. This week changed the entire complexity of the next couple years and restored my faith, and I think many other fans’ faith, in this front office. I love you for that. This was a memorable week that I hope to look back on it as a turning point. We shall see. Now go have a hell of a week!

                                                                                      Beyond Exuberant,

                                                                                                Brad

P.S. stands for Please Stop and that’s directed at all of the people wondering why we didn’t keep Gerrit Cole if we were going to trade for Chris Archer. First off, Cole is a free agent after next season and he was going to leave anyway. Cole also would not be doing here what he’s doing in Houston. Houston really changed the league perspective by making pitchers throw more off-speed pitches. It’s not like you just gave Cole away for nothing. While Michael Feliz has faltered, and Colin Moran looks like an average third baseman at best, Jason Martin has had a huge year between Double and Triple-A and Joe Musgrove looks like he could be legitimate middle of the rotation starter. Cole seemed done with Pittsburgh and I was honestly a little over him too. Cole’s having a great year, and good for him, but he’s gone and you made two outstanding moves this week. Time to move on…

[iloveyoupittsburghpirates-blog]

We Have Reached A Crossroads, Pittsburgh Pirates

My Dearest Pittsburgh Pirates, 

It was the biggest week of the season and when it was all said and done you basically ended up right back where you started. Your eleven-game winning streak ended on Wednesday against a first place team, the Cleveland Indians, and then you split four games with a last place team, the New York Mets, which led you to a 4-3 week. That leaves you six games out of first place and four games out of the final Wildcard spot. Today is July 30th which means tomorrow is the trade deadline. With no game today, that means when the deadline hits on Tuesday, the most you could be out of the final Wildcard spot could be 4 ½ games. That puts you in a very interesting position. Milwaukee has the first Wildcard spot sitting 1 ½ games ahead of Arizona, who currently has the second Wildcard spot. Colorado is 3 ½ games ahead of you, Atlanta is 2 ½, and you’re the third team out of the Wildcard. You’re very much on the outside looking in as far as the playoffs go, but you are absolutely in it, so you need to act like it. Splitting a four-game series with the last place Mets at home didn’t exactly leave me with the highest vote of confidence but taking two out of three in Cleveland was rather impressive. These next two days will be very interesting and could in a lot of ways help shape the next three to four years of the franchise.

This week didn’t go quite as planned and that might mostly be because of the onslaught of injuries to your best hitters. In the midst of your lineup being the hottest in baseball, three of your four best players got hurt this week. The scariest, and what turned out to be the least severe, happened when Starling Marte took a pitch off his hand in the first inning on Wednesday. Initially the fear was it could be broken, but it fortunately turned out to be just a contusion. Marte missed the rest of that game plus two more. You lost two out of those three games. Before that, Corey Dickerson pulled his hamstring running to first base on Tuesday. You tried to wait out the injury but you finally put him on the DL on Saturday retroactive to July 25th. That means he should be available to return on August 4th. Then when it seemed like it couldn’t get worse, Josh Bell felt discomfort in his side running to first base on Friday. That turned out to be an oblique strain that landed him on the DL. Polanco has been on absolute fire, even through the Mets’ series, but your next three best hitters are Dickerson, Marte, and Bell. Marte returned Saturday, but not having Bell and Dickerson was probably a big reason for the brutal 1-0 loss yesterday. These injuries couldn’t have come at a more inopportune time but if you can survive this week then you might have your full squad back to make another run next week.

The trade deadline has basically arrived and it seems like one thing is very clear: you can't sell. It seemed like a foregone conclusion a couple weeks ago that you would trade Nova, Cervelli, Freese, Mercer, JHay, and Dickerson, but it doesn’t make as much sense especially given that you couldn’t get any value back except maybe for Dickerson and Nova. Now that you have won 15 of 19 games, it seems to change the whole opinion of this team, not just this year but moving forward. The two positions that are most of need are starting pitching and another reliever. Any trades you make shouldn’t focus on rentals, meaning someone who will be a free agent at the end of this year. There’s enough doubt that exists that it doesn’t make sense to go all in this year. Trading away prospects for two months of a player doesn’t make any sense right now. Controllable starters like Kevin Gausman and Chris Archer have come up in conversation but neither of those seem very realistic as of now. The most likely scenario seems to be adding a relief pitcher, which would still be worthwhile. With the emergence of Santana, Rich Rod, and Crick mixed in with the dominance of Vasquez, adding another upper level arm to that bullpen could make it one of the better ones in baseball. That could be essential for a team that can’t afford to pay top-tier free agents which means relying on winning close games. Your close enough that selling doesn’t make sense and doing nothing feels equally as apathetic. You have two days to figure it out and I will be extremely disappointed if you stand pat.

I think the main take away from getting back into this Wildcard race is that you might be a contender sooner than you think. On top of that, you might actually have a window that is closing. The dominance of Polanco, Marte, and Bell over the last month has been a revelation. The rotation has been better especially with Taillon pitching extremely well over that time and you have a dominant back-end of your bullpen. In the NL where there’s seemingly only two dominant teams right now (Cubs and Dodgers), it makes it seem believable you could be competitive between now and the end of 2021, when Marte will be gone. That’s why adding controllable players to this roster before the deadline makes so much sense because they could help you next year or in the years to come. That’s also why extending Corey Dickerson and trying to trade Austin Meadows for pitching makes sense because you need to be in the win-now mindset. I’m also not terribly high on Meadows at this point (.712 OPS in Triple-A this year), so I think selling high on him before his value sinks too low makes a lot of sense. The depth in your minor leagues has disappeared and now you are a top-heavy organization without many elite prospects coming in the future. There doesn’t appear to be anyone of the caliber of Cutch, Polanco, Marte, Bell, or even Taillon in your entire organization except maybe for Mitch Keller and Ke’Bryan Hayes. They are two of your four top 100 prospects and the other two are your first round picks last year (Shane Baz) and this year (Travis Swaggerty). They’ve proved nothing and they don’t even rank in the top 75 prospects according to most publications. You have the youngest staff in baseball and if you add to it, it could be good. You have a potentially really good offense if Marte, Polanco, Bell, and Dickerson continue at this level. You potentially have an elite bullpen especially if you add to it. The one thing this winning streak has taught me the most is that you have a three to four year window now. You need to take advantage of that like you didn’t the 2013-2015 window.

Things are about to get much more difficult. You have had a hell of a run, but the month of August has the potential to be brutal. This week is light as far as games but not as far as importance. After a day off on Monday, the Cubs comes to Pittsburgh for a rare two-game series. You face Jon Lester and newly acquired Cole Hamels, two lefties, which makes Dickerson and Bell’s absence a little more digestible especially when you consider you have another day off on Thursday. The St. Louis Cardinals come to town for the weekend, who are a game behind you in the Wildcard. As a matter of fact, with the Cubs and Cards on the docket this week, that means 28 of your next 30 games are against teams that are either ahead of you or are within two games of you in the playoff picture. The bad news is these are good teams, but the good news is that you have a chance to overtake some of these teams if you can beat them head-to-head. This run of games will be very telling as to the legitimate chances you have this season. If it’s not realistic, it does seem like there is a formidable team that’s a couple pieces away from potentially being a force. I hope that this streak showed you what’s possible. There is some legitimate talent on your team and there is no guarantee when players of that caliber will come along again. Do what needs to be done, whether that’s now or this offseason. Five huge games this week. Let’s see what you are made of. Good luck!

                                                                     Looking Forward To The Future,

                                                                                           Brad

P.S. stands for Pretty Standard which describes the clutchness of David Freese in his career. Freese single-handedly won a huge game on Friday night driving in all five runs in a 5-4 victory including a walkoff single in the bottom of the 9th. Freese has been on fire the last month and it makes you wonder if you should pick up his six million dollar option and keep him around next year. With this team showing they might be able to compete, doing something like starting rookies Kevin Kramer and Kevin Newman up the middle next year seems crazy. Maybe you pick up Freese’s option to give you depth at third and right handed option at first. Maybe you pick up JHay’s option or resign Mercer so that you’re not starting all rookies and then you rotate Newman, Kramer, and Kang at the other position depending on who is healthy and hitting. With this surge, it just seems like losing all of your veteran experience is now a really bad idea and David Freese provides veteran leadership as well as anyone.

[iloveyoupittsburghpirates-blog]

You Are Back In It, Pittsburgh Pirates

My Dearest Pittsburgh Pirates, 

And the streak continues. I didn’t know if you would be able to keep the winning going against a Reds’ team that has played much better lately. I should’ve known better. You beat the crap out of them outscoring them 27-5 in a three-game series and you’ve increased your winning streak to nine games. Yes, you averaged nine runs per game in this series. You’ve climbed the ladder but you’re still a fairly insurmountable eight games back in the division. The interesting part is the Wildcard chase where you are only 4 ½ games back of the Brewers and the Phillies, the two Wildcard teams as of now. The Brewers got smoked again today so you are in it. There are still two teams between you and the final Wildcard spot, but you’re coming on strong just at the right time so that if you’re a seller at the trade deadline it will look terrible and if you don’t it will look stupid. This winning steak might be the most Pirates’ thing you have ever done. The offense has been absolutely electric albeit against some mediocre pitching. If you keep winning at this rate, is it possible you become buyers at the deadline? It’s not out of the question. I would have never imagined you would be in this position but I also never imagined you would win nine in a row. This next week will determine a lot. If somehow this winning continues and you’re within a couple games of a Wildcard spot, then maybe the thinking does need to change. I’m not there yet, but the tide is turning.

Marte and Polanco have remained on absolute fire after the All Star break. Both have raised their OPS’s to .827 and .829 respectively with 15 and 17 home runs now on the season. This offense centers around them. Marte is a known commodity already having a full season in which he had an OPS over .900. Polanco might finally be breaking out and I almost hesitate to say that. His last month he’s been one of the best hitters in baseball with an OPS over 1.000 during that stretch. Anyone arguing we should trade them while their value is high is crazy. Polanco is only making 3.5 million this year. You have him under contract through 2023 and the last two years of the contract are option years where the most he will make is 13.5 million. Marte is making 7.5 million this year and he’s technically under contract until 2021 and he’ll make 12.5 million in that final year. Because of those team friendly contracts, their value is very high and you could get high-end prospects in return for them. The problem is that even if you got a few of the better prospects in baseball, you still don’t know how they will turn out. Even with Polanco’s inconsistencies, both him and Marte are proven commodities. When the Padres traded their closer, Brad Hand, and reliever Adam Cimber, who is having an awesome season, earlier this week and got one of the top prospects in baseball in return, people discussed trading Felipe Vasquez. First off, to get that kind of return, we would need to trade Vasquez and Crick. You only do that if you don’t think you can compete in the next couple years and given this run and how the NL really only seems to have two elite teams (Cubs and Dodgers especially after they traded for Manny Machado), it’s reasonable to believe you could compete sooner. You still might end up trading players who will be free agents this year or next year, but I don’t think doing a full rebuild is the right move because you don’t know what you will get in return and I honestly don’t trust this front office to make moves of that magnitude.

Who has the best OPS on your team right now? That would be Corey Dickerson after his 4 for 5 performance which included a double and two home runs, his 10th and 11th. He’s homered in four straight games. His OPS is up to .856 and he will be the biggest debate whether to trade him or not at the deadline. Obviously this nine-game winning streak throws a minor curveball into that thought process. He has another year of arbitration next year so he’s under your control for another season. He’s making 5.95 million this season so it’s fair to guess that he would make around 8 or 9 million next year. That’s still very reasonable for a guy with his current statistics. He’s been a streaky hitter throughout his career and his BABIP is .330 right now so he’s due for a regression. He is right around top five in the NL in batting average, which I know isn’t that important to most people, but it makes him fit very well at the top of the lineup. This week will probably determine if you are buyers or sellers but Dickerson could net you a very nice return. If you have a rough week and still don’t trade him, then that will tell me a lot about your opinion on Austin Meadows. I know Meadows started off strong but his last month before being demoted was well below average. The drop off from a .856 OPS to a .617 OPS (Meadows’ last month) is obviously drastic. I really like Dickerson as a ball player particularly his approach with two strikes on him. I don’t know why more players don’t choke up in that situation. He’s also cut down on his swing and misses on fastballs in the zone considerably after being the worst in baseball at that last year. That makes me think this could be sustainable.  By this time next week, Dickerson could be on another team. If he’s still here, that’s great. You could always trade him this offseason too. Or maybe you should extend him and trade Meadows. Again, it’s a proven commodity versus potential that might never come to fruition. Meadows has been very average at almost every level in the minors. One way or another, trading for Dickerson seemed like a no-brainer at the time and it has proved to be a brilliant move. Even if he ends up being traded, that mean you got a damn good prospect for him which is a win too.

I’ve been all about trading JHay and Mercer, bringing up Kevin Kramer and Kevin Newman, and starting them for the rest of the season. I’m starting to backtrack on that. Obviously things could change depending on what happens this week, but maybe you need to stay the course for now. I know JHay has had a terrible offensive season (.639 OPS) and Mercer is having a typical season which means his OPS is right around .700. Those aren’t two guys you want starting. I’m sticking with the theme of the week here which is you don’t know what prospects will actually do in the majors. People will say that there’s no way Kramer and Newman could be worse than those two but the reality is they could be. It’s very possible they could come up, bat under .200, and have an OPS of .500. That would be significantly worse. It’s also important to keep in mind that given their offensive numbers you are going to get next to nothing in return for Mercer or JHay. They both play stellar defense and are smart ball players, but that’s it. If this week ends up being a disaster and you fall well out of contention, I’d trade them in a second. I would just be sure that everyone is realistic on the lack of return you are sure to get and the possibility that what you are left with could even be worse than what you had. It’s a similar situation with Ivan Nova. I’m all for trading him too but, with the Kuhl injury, that means you are probably putting Glasnow or Holmes in the rotation and neither of those are a very desirable circumstances. My overall point is be careful what you wish for because things could always get worse.

I’m not overstating it when I say that this is the most important week of the season. For the millionth time, it will basically determine if you will be buyers or sellers at the deadline. The week starts with a tall task and finishes with a fairly easy one. Tomorrow you travel to Cleveland to take on the first place Indians and the pitching matchups don’t favor you at all. You start off by facing the defending Cy Young winner Corey Kluber and his 12-5 record with a 2.76 ERA. He will face basically your #5 starter Trevor Williams and his 4.36 ERA. That doesn’t bode well for you. Game 2 will see Joe Musgrove facing off against one of the top 100 prospects in baseball and the Indians #3 prospect, Shane Beiber. He’s 5-1 with a 3.53 ERA since being promoted after he threw a no-hitter in Triple-A. Game 3 will be your ace, Jameson Taillon, facing off against former top three pick Trevor Bauer and his 2.44 ERA. It’s the biggest series of the season and you are facing two Cy Young candidates and an elite prospect. After that, you go home to face the Mets and their lowly offense for a four-game series. You will have to go against Jacob DeGrom, but the other three games are very winnable. If this week goes well, you could be buyers at the deadline. If it goes south, you will be sellers. No pressure. It’s been a hell of a ride over this nine-game winning streak so thank you for that. Just keeping playing the way you have been and we will see what happens. Love you bunches!

                                                                                           Enjoying The Ride,

                                                                                                      Brad

P.S. stands for Pathetic Shit (pardon the language) and that’s in reference to the Brewers’ All Star reliever Josh Hader. During the All Star game, it was discovered that he had tweeted out some very racist and very homophobic things a few years ago when he was 17 years old. There is no excuse for that kind of behavior. He apologized for it and maybe he’s grown up a lot since then. We all did some stupid things when we were that age. I do think it’s a little ridiculous that his only punishment is sensitivity training rather than being suspended. A five-game suspension is still a fairly light punishment. Putting that aside, it was even more crazy when on his return to the mound at Miller Park that he was greeted with a standing ovation. I can understand forgiving the guy to a certain extent and maybe even not booing him (though I might have), but a standing ovation? Really? Poor form, Milwaukee…

[iloveyoupittsburghpirates-blog]

Quit Playing Games With My Heart, Pittsburgh Pirates

My Dearest Pittsburgh Pirates, 

What the hell just happened? I almost wrote in your letter last week that the only way this season could remain in tact was if you did something crazy like go 7-1 this week.  Then you went 7-1 this week. You took two out of three from slumping Washington Nationals and then the first place Milwaukee Brewers came to town for a rare five-game series. Let’s just say the Brewers aren’t in first place anymore. You won all five games with a particularly dramatic win yesterday to seal the sweep. You trailed 5-2 going to the 8th, 5-3 going to the 9th, and 6-5 in the 10th after you tied it in the 9th. Marte singled in a run in the 8th to make it 5-3. Jordy Mercer grounded into a double play that scored a run and moved the runner to third, so then it was 5-4 with the tying run on 3rd and David Freese coming up to pinch hit. Freese ripped an RBI triple off the Clemente wall to tie the game. You gave up a run in the top of the 10th (more on that later) so you trailed going to the bottom of the 10th. Gregory Polanco singled and a Colin Moran single moved him to third. As rain started pouring down on PNC Park, Josh Bell stepped to the plate with two outs. Bell, batting righty, ripped a line drive over the head of center fielder Lorenzo Cain. Polanco scored easily and Moran was being waved home. The throw beat him by a lot but, possibly because of the wetness, the ball skipped past the catcher allowing the run to score and you to complete the sweep. It was the best game of the year so far and right before the All Star break no less. Even with winning six in a row, you’re still a game under .500, 9 games behind the first place Cubs, and 5 ½ games out of the second Wildcard spot with five teams ahead of you. This was an exciting week but you still got a long way to go.

Without a doubt, the three most important players in your lineup are Josh Bell, Starling Marte, and Gregory Polanco. All three have struggled mightily during stretches this season and there was even some people insinuating that Polanco and Marte should be made available at the deadline. This weekend was a friendly reminder of what they’re capable of. In the double header on Saturday, Marte and Polanco hit back to back homers in the first inning of game one and did it again in the 8th inning of game two. Marte now has 13 homers and an OPS of .813. Over his last 15 games, he has splits of .345/.379/.618 for a .997 OPS. Those few days off at the beginning of the month really put him back on track. Polanco leads the team with 16 homers and has his OPS up to .823. Over the last month, Polanco has splits of .304/.409/.652 for a 1.061 OPS. I’m not going to get overly excited like I did when he started the season on a tear, but it has made me more optimistic about him. Sunday’s hero, Josh Bell, finally got his OPS to .738 while he’s spent much of the season below .700. He’s done that with a huge week where his splits were .409/.519/.591. That’s a 1.110 OPS and he has an .849 OPS over the last month. When these three hit like this, it changes the entire complexity of this lineup. You almost hate to see them get four days off when they are performing this way, but hopefully they carry this over to the second half of the season. This offense goes how they go.

The once disgustingly pathetic bullpen has turned itself around led by your lone All Star Felipe Vasquez. He’s converted 13 straight save opportunities and hasn’t been scored on in the month of July. He’s looked like his nightmarish self again and it seems to be trickling down. Kyle Crick and Edgar Santana have also not given up a run in July. Crick, who came over in the Cutch deal, has looked wildly impressive with his 96-98 mph fastball. We might be watching Vasquez and him work the 8th and 9th innings for the next five years. Santana, who I have been very critical of recently, still has a WHIP of 1.00 thanks in part to only giving up five walks in 43 innings this season. Richard Rodriguez has remained effective as well with a 2.33 ERA, a 1.06 WHIP, and 49 strikeouts in 38 2/3 innings. They are young so we will have to see how the rest of the season plays out, but for a group that me and the entire fan base thought were reprehensible only a few weeks ago now look like a formidable bunch. Glasnow and Brault have had their struggles but as the fifth and sixth option out of the bullpen, they’re good enough for me. Brault can still dominate lefties and when Glasnow is on, he’s unhittable. For a team that will probably need to win a lot of close games to be successful in the next couple years, these relievers could play a huge role if they keep progressing and pitching like this.

I still have a hard time wrapping my mind around some of the decisions Clint Hurdle makes. He’s taken a lot of heat recently for not playing Austin Meadows which I actually understand. Obviously, Polanco and Marte need to play as often as possible right now and Dickerson is still batting over .300. Meadows had a .617 OPS over the last month before being sent back to Triple-A this weekend. Might as well get him more work on days off. People lost their minds when Jordan Luplow was in the lineup over Meadows in game two of the double header Saturday. You were facing a lefty and Luplow is a righty. Makes sense to me. He proceeded to hit two homers in the game. I have no problem with how Hurdle has handled the starting lineup, but how he handles the bullpen is always questionable and it was on display again Sunday. I know you played eight games this week, so pitching options were limited especially after the double header. But there was no excuse for leaving Joe Musgrove in a 2-2 game in the 8th inning with the bases loaded and him having already thrown 105 pitches. He gave up a bases-clearing triple that put you down 5-2 and then finally Hurdle brought in Richard Rodriguez to get the final out. Rodriguez has dominated lefties this season with a 0.76 WHIP and a .156 average against. The man who hit the triple, Brett Philipps, is a lefty. What took you so long, Clint? That was the first monster mistake. Brault pitched the 9th and then had to be pinch hit for so Hurdle brought in Tanner Anderson, aka guy who has no business being in the majors, to pitch the 10th and he gave up the lead run. Can we show some more urgency, Clint? You have a chance to pull off this incredible sweep, you’ve clawed your way back into this game when you already blew it once, and you bring him in? You were about to have four straight days off. I know the pen is a little taxed but there had to be someone else available that was a better option. Fortunately for Clint, the offense saved him twice in the game so I guess he’s off the hook. I’m just getting sick and tired of having to discuss some major mistake he makes every week.

The All Star break is upon us which means that everybody, other than Vasquez, will get four days off before travelling to Cincinnati to play the much improved Reds on Friday for a three game series. The July 31st trade deadline is quickly approaching so some decisions will need to be made soon. There’s only ten games between now and the 31st so unless your winning streak continues on, you will most likely be in a similar position as you are now in the standings, very much on the outside looking in. You should almost surely be sellers even after the success this week. Nova and Dickerson could net you some return. With Kingham and even Clay Holmes pitching well this week plus Meadows’ potential and Luplow looking like a solid 4th outfielder, there is depth to cover those spots if they are traded. Mercer and Freese could get you something in return. It won’t be anything big, but they are gone next year anyway. JHay and Cervelli are the big issues. JHay pulled his hamstring running to first on Sunday so that could hurt his value depending on the severity of it. Cervelli has a much bigger and scarier problem. He’s still experiencing concussion symptoms that haven’t gone away from his last incident. There is some question if he can even play catcher anymore which would obviously hurt his value in a major way. You just hope the guy is going to be all right because this is much bigger than baseball. Hopefully we will know more in the next few days. Use those days to rest and recoup because the second half is upon us. Thank you for such an exciting week. It was truly a pleasure to watch you play. Let’s keep it going starting on Friday. Until then, have a lovely week!

                                                                                Suddenly Not Spiraling,

                                                                                               Brad

P.S. stands for Starting Pitching if you flip it around. The pitching was a big reason for your success this week. Since giving up the second 17 run game of the week last Friday, you have only given up 27 runs in 9 games. The injury to Chad Kuhl obviously left a void but Jameson Taillon, Joe Musgrove, Nick Kingham, Trevor Williams, and Ivan Nova have performed admirably. Even if you trade Nova and Kuhl is still hurt, I’m willing to let Clay Holmes take a couple more starts. His performance on Saturday (6 IP 4 H 0 R 2 BB 6 K) was pretty damn impressive especially when you consider that his fastball can hit 98 mph. This is the youngest staff in all of baseball and if you trade Nova it will be even younger. There’s a lot of potential but that doesn’t mean it will come to fruition. I’m very intrigued so see how this rotation keeps developing because if you add Keller next year they could be really good.

[iloveyoupittsburghpirates-blog]

You Have Lost Me, Pittsburgh Pirates

My Dearest Pittsburgh Pirates,

I should be much more upset right now. This week had the ability to be the worst one in recent memory until you escaped with a win yesterday. Before that, this was one of the most embarrassing weeks to be a Pirates’ fan. I went to all three games at Dodgers’ Stadium and I watched you get swept in a by an overall score of 31-8. That included a mind-numbing 17-1 loss on Monday. After that series, I didn’t think the week could really get worse. Then on Friday you managed to exceed my expectations. You gave up 17 runs AGAIN to the Philadelphia Phillies in a 17-5 loss. What the hell? I didn’t look up the stats on this because it’s too depressing, but I can’t remember any Pirates’ team giving up 17 runs twice in one week. I honestly can’t remember any team doing that ever, though I’m sure (hope) they have. That was followed by a 3-2 loss in a game that you led 2-0 going into the 7th inning and that we will discuss more later. You salvaged the series with a win yesterday, but you have looked terribly out-matched by any viable team over the past two months. You are currently 41-48, you’re 12 ½ games out of first place, and 9 games out of the Wildcard spot. Barring some amazing progression, you will miss the playoffs for the third straight year and the 26 of the last 29 seasons. Great job…

Clint Hurdle made another questionable decision that arguably cost you a game on Saturday. Jameson Taillon had been cruising with a 2-0 lead until the seventh inning. With one out, Taillon gave up an infield single. He got a force out to get the second out before a triple and a single tied the game. There were still two outs and he was only at 77 pitches, so I figured you would just leave him in. Instead, you went to your laughably awful bullpen with a man on first and two outs rather than stick with Taillon who had only made two bad pitches the whole afternoon. Edgar Santana, who has seemed to give up a run every outing over the last six weeks, was brought in and gave up an RBI double on the first pitch and you lost 3-2. Your argument was that Taillon’s numbers his third time through the order have not been good enough and I can agree with that. OPS 1st time through - .673, 2nd time through - .620, and 3rd time through - .837. I think sometimes you should look at how this particular game has progressed to determine a decision like that. My bigger issue is how unequivocally bad your bullpen has been recently. You don’t trust Taillon to go the third time through the order, but you do trust anyone in that bullpen not named Crick or Vasquez? Makes no sense. Santana, Glasnow, and Brault have all struggled as of late and you’ve had to resort to using guys like Neverauskas, Smoker, and Holmes, none of which should even be in the majors. I’ll say it again, Taillon was at 77 pitches. I don’t care if your trust is wavering. He arguably has the most talent in your rotation and your bullpen has been a joke. I’d keep him in the game every time.

(Wild pitch count add) Fun-da-mentals. I literally can’t say it enough. I know I harp on this but after this week if felt necessary to mention again. Case in point: Monday night against the Dodgers. I was there in person to watch Nick Kingham’s first start since returning to the majors for an injured Chad Kuhl. I like Kingham a lot and his performance yesterday was definitely an improvement, but his first inning on Monday was as bad as it gets. The inning led off with him dropping a ball thrown right to his chest while covering first, putting the runner at second. He balked to send the runner to third and then a dribbler single in front of home plate scored the run. After another single puts runners at first and third, I saw something I’ve never seen in a major league baseball game previously. After a pitch, Elias Diaz threw the ball back to Kingham on the mound. Kingham was a little off balance and the throw was far from perfect. It hit off the top of Kingham’s glove and rolled towards third base allowing a run to score. You barely ever see that in Little League games, let alone a high school or college game. Allowing it to happen in a major league game is beyond embarrassing. I was speechless. Whether it was JHay fumbling a ball in the first inning on Friday, or a pop up directly in the front of the plate on Saturday that four players stood around and watched fall in (fortunately they could still get the force play at second), or the major league leading 59 wild pitches you have uncorked this season, you are a nightmare when it comes to doing the little things correctly. I’m not even surprised anymore when these things happen. The blame goes from top to bottom in the organization. I apologize for harping on this issue so much but these type of botched plays are the difference between good teams and bad teams.

The older I get, the less I care about the All Star game. The fact that fans pick the starters has always been an issue for me because the most popular players get picked even when they aren’t having a great year, like Bryce Harper. But maybe that’s the whole spirit of the game. It’s just for fun anyway. Why shouldn’t the fans be able to pick their favorite players? In that case, the prestige of being named should take a hit, but that’s another conversation. All Star teams were announced yesterday and I honestly couldn’t think of who on your team was deserving. Cervelli has been one of the best catchers in baseball this year but, probably because of his recent DL stint, he just missed it. Felipe Vasquez will be your lone representative in the 2018 All Star game. His 3.38 ERA and 1.31 WHIP are far from dominant. He has struck out 51 batters in 37 1/3 innings and opponents are only hitting .218 off him with a .571 OPS against plus 18 saves in 22 opportunities. I believe he is the only player on this roster who actually has the ability to be a top five player at their position, maybe even top three. That alone could technically make him our All Star. I’m not vehemently opposed to this choice especially when the ERA leader in the American League didn’t make it. In a year where no one on your team is truly deserving, except for maybe Cervelli, makes me conclude once again that the respect given to the people who make this game should only hold so much weight.

Here comes yet another week with the potential to go terribly wrong. The wildly under-performing Washington Nationals, a game over .500 and five games out of first place and the final Wildcard spot, come to town after winning three out of four this weekend against Miami and scoring 14 and 18 runs in two of those games. With our pitching woes recently, it seems like this could be a bad matchup. After that, the first place Milwaukee Brewers, who currently hold the best record in the National League, come in for a rare five game series with a double header on Saturday. They have won 7 of their last 10 and are a legitimate contender to represent the NL in the World Series with how they have been playing. This week is your last chance. It’s the week before the All Star break and, barring some miraculous week, you will be selling at the deadline. It’s what you should do. Trade Cervelli, Nova, Dickerson, Mercer, Freese, and JHay to get whatever you can in return. It’s time. A small market team can’t afford to be middling. Either you’re all in or you’re rebuilding. That should be it. I always root for you and I just want what’s best for you. Selling your assets to see if these young guys actually have any potential is the right move. Have a good week and get ready for some much needed rest. I know I will. Love you!

                                                            Exasperated For The Foreseeable Future,

                                                                                               Brad

P.S. If you do trade JHay and Mercer, then your most likely scenario is bringing up Kevin Newman and Kevin Kramer. People aren’t very excited about them right now but there is upside. Newman has an OPS of .748 and hit only his second homer of the season yesterday. He is batting .307 with an OBP of .355 and, most importantly, has 21 stolen bases on the season. If he can bat close to .300, play solid shortstop, and steal 30-plus bases, I’m totally fine with him as my everyday shortstop. Kramer has 11 homers and currently holds an OPS of .818. He does strikeout too much and has been slumping as of late, but even he has 7 stolen bases. I don’t think these two will be superstars but they could be decent at two positions where you rarely expect much offense anyway.

[iloveyoupittsburghpirates-blog]

You Can Beat Bad Teams, Pittsburgh Pirates

My Dearest Pittsburgh Pirates,

It finally happened. You finally had a winning week. It took you playing two bottom feeding teams like the New York Mets and the San Diego Padres to do it, but a win is a win especially on the road. You won two out of three in New York and then two out of three in San Diego. You almost came back in the 9th of the middle game in the San Diego series after being down 4-1. With Polanco as the tying run on third and no one out, you weren’t able to get him in. Jose Osuna hit a pop fly down the right field line with one out. Instead of going back to tag, Polanco was half way down the third baseline and never attempted to run. Third base coach Joey Cora said after the game that, while Polanco should have been back at the bag, he told him not to run. That sparked controversy in Pittsburgh with people saying that was a boneheaded move. First off, it’s pretty pathetic that in three batters with a man on third and no outs, the best chance you had was a short pop out to right. That being said, Polanco has to be back at the bag especially when it was evident off the bat that it would be a foul ball. Watching the replay of it, I’m not convinced he scores anyway. I think you do have to send him to force a great throw and put pressure on the defense particularly when the guy running has Polanco’s speed. Either way, you still managed to pull out a victory yesterday thanks mostly to Colin Moran’s grand slam. You are three games under .500, you are eight games back in the division, and five and a half games back in the Wildcard. If you want to get back into this race, you’re going to need to have weeks like this more consistently. You have a much more challenging week ahead so here’s hoping you can keep this momentum going against more formidable opponents.

Gregory Polanco is back.  After loads and loads of criticism were placed on him and fans were demanding he get benched or sent down to the minors once Meadows was promoted, Polanco has come out the other side as one of your best players and currently your best outfielder by far. His OPS over his last two weeks is a solid .784, but in this past week his splits are .450/.560/.950 for a ridiculous 1.510 OPS. He has two homers and five walks in the week as well. I’m not allowing myself to get excited this time. It seemed like he turned a huge corner at the beginning of the season too when he started off on an absolute tear. What followed was a month of being the worst player in the lineup. You tinkered with his swing and backed him off the plate because he was getting owned by pitches throwing on the inner third. It’s seemed to make a big difference so far. Polanco’s career OPS is .728 which is below average. He’s only 26 years old so it’s fathomable that he could breakout considering he is about to enter his prime years. This week was a step in the right direction, but I’m keeping things in perspective until I see this kind of performance on a more consistent basis.

If we are talking about one outfielder crushing the ball, let’s talk about one who can’t seem to hit anything right now. That’s Starling Marte and he’s had one really terrible month. His splits over the last month are .189/.233/.315 for a remarkably bad OPS of .548. That’s 200 points below average. It’s not like he seems to be on the verge of improving either. His OPS for this past week was .432. He started off this season walking at a much higher rate than usual but that’s tapered off too. Marte is the type of player that I don’t worry about his slugging percentage. With his speed, singles turn into doubles quite frequently. That’s all you need him to do. He always plays elite defense so there’s at least still value when he’s not hitting but those type of offensive numbers will get you benched or demoted. I was happy to see Hurdle give him a day off yesterday to try and get his mind right. It would be a lot easier to do that if Meadows and Dickerson were hitting like they did at the beginning of the season, but Meadows has a .650 OPS over the last two weeks and Dickerson has a .649 OPS over the last month. This outfield that didn’t have enough space for all the talent now can’t seem to field a starting three with a remotely respectable OPS. Here’s hoping they all turn it around before it’s too late.

Let’s talk a little bit about development, or lack there of.  Jameson Taillon had a subpar outing yesterday lasting only 4 2/3 innings and giving up seven hits, four runs but three earned, and walking three. He has a mediocre 4.05 ERA and a decent WHIP of 1.26. He’s still early in his career but so far he hasn’t looked like the elite ace we expected him to be when he was drafted number two overall. This speaks to a bigger problem in the organization which is the inability to develop top-tier talent. Gerrit Cole left town and became a candidate for the Cy Young award. Meadows looks promising but first round picks like Reese McGuire, Barret Barnes, Cole Tucker, Connor Joe, Kevin Newman, Ke’Bryan Hayes, and Will Craig are either gone or not even considered Top 100 prospects by most at this point. There could still be hope for Newman, Tucker, Hayes, and even Craig but this is a problem. Small market teams can’t afford to miss on first round picks. Whether it’s development or talent evaluation, someone needs to figure out why our most talented players don’t seem to come to fruition. Blame Nutting for not spending money as much as you want. I know I do. Nothing will change until this organization figures out how to pick the best players and get the most out of them.

I can actually say it was a pleasure watching you play this weekend. I caught the Saturday and Sunday games and you split those. I’ll take it. I will get to see a lot more of you this week too. You come to Los Angeles starting today for a three-game series against the surging Dodgers. They are within two games of first place and are 1 ½ out of the final Wildcard spot. You get a day off Thursday before going home to begin an eleven game homestand. The first opponent is the Philadelphia Phillies who currently hold the second Wildcard spot and are three games out of first place in their division. This is a much tougher test than last week. I should be at all three Dodgers games so let’s hope you give me something to cheer about. You did a good job this week of getting back into my good graces. Let’s hope that continues. Excited to spend three more days with you! I hope I don’t regret it.

                                                                                              Optimistic As Ever,

                                                                                                        Brad

P.S. stands for Putrid Start. Top prospect in the organization, Mitch Keller, was promoted to Triple-A this week and made his first start there this past weekend. It did not go well. Keller lasted only 2 2/3 innings giving up ten hits and eight earned runs. I’m not going to get bent out of shape over one bad start but the fact that Keller is already in Triple-A means that there are reasonable guesses on his ETA to the majors. I would imagine that by May or June of next season, you could see Keller in your rotation. Keller has pitched great at every level, so I want to believe your development of him will make him as good as advertised. We shall see…

[iloveyoupittsburghpirates-blog]

We Can’t Go On Like This, Pittsburgh Pirates

My Dearest Pittsburgh Pirates,

I don’t know what there is really left to say. The last month has been a brutal slog. You’ve lost five in a row and 24 of your last 34 games. You are nine games out of first place and six games back of the final Wildcard spot. You went 1-5 this week splitting what turned out to be a two-game series with Milwaukee because of a rain out and then got swept at home in a four game series by the Diamondbacks. You showed no sign of life in that entire series. You scored eight runs in six games this week. That’s laughable. Your rotation started showing signs of life, but that hope has fizzled away. You can’t get anything resembling consistency from the rotation. Trevor Williams and Ivan Nova had been horrible for a month and then they gave you your two best starts of the week. Chad Kuhl and Joe Musgrove were riding high and then Kuhl got absolutely torched on Thursday (2 IP 8 ER) and Musgrove has been below average since his hot start. Taillon has been inconsistent all year, so you’re still left with the one guy who has arguably looked the strongest, Nick Kingham, still pitching in Triple-A. Not only do you not look like a playoff team, you look like one of the worst teams in baseball. What else is there to say? I’m annoyed I even have to write the letter this week. I can beg and plead with you to do better but the bottom line is that you aren’t good enough and I’m talking about everyone from the players to coaches to the front office. Blame being a small market team all you want but the fact remains that in the last 26 years you have had 3 winning seasons. What else is there to say?

That Gerrit Cole trade looks less and less impressive with each passing day. Cole has cooled down from his incredible start but so has most of the players you received in return. Joe Musgrove looked so good in his first couple of starts. He had four to five good pitches and laser sharp accuracy. After another poor performance on Saturday (5 IP 5 ER), his ERA has ballooned to 4.59 and his WHIP is up to 1.41. Those are the numbers of a mediocre pitcher. Michael Feliz got off to a good start in the bullpen before tail-spinning over the last month. He just went to the DL with shoulder problems but before that he had become the worst pitcher in your bullpen (5.51 ERA and a 1.47 WHIP) which is really saying something given how dreadful they have been. Colin Moran hasn’t been bad, but he’s nothing to write home about. He has 7 homers and 29 RBI’s while batting .265 with a .763 OPS. That’s slightly above average. You’re hoping for more than that when you trade your ace. Jason Martin is still lighting it up in Double-A with a .920 OPS but even his last ten games he only has a .776 OPS. You gave up a dollar and aren’t even getting four quarters back. These are still young guys so there’s always the chance they progress and improve. It’s just hard to feel optimistic right now when Cole is 9-1 with a 2.56 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, and 146 strikeouts in 105 2/3 innings. Woof.

The offense is on a steep decline. Francisco Cervelli is dealing with concussions issues from cumulative effect of having four concussions over the last eight years. That’s a bad sign. He was the only player in your starting lineup with an OPS over .800 (it’s .876) other than Austin Meadows who only has 110 at bats. Corey Dickerson and Starling Marte have nose-dived since their torrid start. Over the last month, Dickerson has a .665 OPS and Marte has a .721 OPS. Josh Bell had two hits yesterday but still sports a paltry .705 OPS. For as much as the fan base and I have criticized Gregory Polanco, he’s actually been coming around. Over the last two weeks, he has a .784 OPS. It’s sad when that’s considered impressive. Even as good as Meadows has been so far, his OPS of .662 over the last two weeks has brought his number down considerably. You rank 24th in baseball in home runs in a league that driven by home runs. That’s a problem. One solution would be to not play SRod in back to back games like you did this weekend. I can understand starting him against a lefty to see if he can snap out of his ridiculous slump. He’s batting .145 with a .559 OPS. He’s made 5 errors in 53 games so his defensive versatility isn’t even a strength anymore. I like SRod but this version of him doesn’t belong on a major league roster.  This lineup was able to produce earlier this year so maybe they will get back to the point, but right now this is a below average lineup which had been the strength of the team.

Why does it seem like you are never a fundamentally sound team? You always make mental mistakes and avoidable errors. Whether it’s Elias Diaz throwing a ball away that cost you a run on Friday night or the seemingly countless defensive mistakes your pitchers make, you are constantly sloppier than your opponent. You are 24th in baseball in fielding percentage and you have made the 7th most errors in the league so the numbers prove the theory. I didn’t hear the quote myself but I was told Neal Huntington, your general manager, said that as an organization you don’t teach fundamentals in the minors because the players should already know that. Wow. That’s a striking statement and explains a whole hell of a lot. I don’t understand how that can’t be a major focus especially for an organization that likes to draft batters who don’t have true positions. Even if players should already know the fundamentals that doesn’t mean they do. If they do know them, it never hurts to go over them so they are burned into their brains. If it’s second nature, then they don’t even have to think about it. It’s all in reaction. That cuts down on the insane amount of mental mistakes you make. I have no tolerance for that kind of organizational philosophy. You can’t always control how well guys hit or pitch, but you can control the little things. Fielding bunts, situational base-running, which base to throw to, and things of that nature should be taught over and over again. Instead of spending all your time going over analytics, which has merit, maybe you should spend some of that time focusing on the basics. The good teams are always fundamentally sound and you haven’t been for quite some time.

I should be more excited about this week. I’m planning to drive to San Diego next weekend to watch you play two games against the Padres but maybe I’m wasting my time. You start the week with three games in New York against the Mets. They’re in a similar boat as you having lost six in a row. They’re 13 games under .500 and are really struggling. Maybe you can start to turn things around against them or vice versa. You get a day off on Thursday before traveling to play three games against the Padres. They are ten games under .500, so you finally get a break from playing first place teams. I’ll be there to see you on Saturday and Sunday, so if you could improve immensely between now and then, that would be super. I’ve said all I need to say. The only thing you can do is refocus and try to get back on track against some weaker competition. See you in a few days.

                                                                                             Wildly Disgusted,

                                                                                                       Brad

P.S. stands for Pretty Sick which is the start that Oneil Cruz is off to in Low A ball. He came over in the Tony Watson trade a couple years ago. He’s knocking the cover off the ball this year with 10 homers, 44 RBI’s, and a .922 OPS in 66 games. He’s a shortstop that’s 6’6” and weighs 175 pounds so there’s obviously a huge frame he can build upon to add even more power. He might have to move to third base because the one downside for him is his defense. He’s made 24 errors in 66 games. That’s not a typo. It’s 24. But they don’t need to teach fundamentals, right? No way. I’m very intrigued by his bat, so he’s definitely a guy worth keeping an eye on.

[iloveyoupittsburghpirates-blog]

You Finally Didn’t Have A Losing Week, Pittsburgh Pirates

My Dearest Pittsburgh Pirates,

It wasn’t a winning week, though, going 3-3. You bottomed out in the first two games of the week against the Diamondbacks. In one game, you blew a five-run lead thanks to a pathetic bullpen and one of baseball’s unwritten and stupid rules. The next game you scored eight runs but still lost mostly due to a six run first inning thanks to three errors. It was about as ugly as two baseball games get. After that disgusting display, you managed to turn things around and win the next three games. It was your first back to back wins and your first series win in a month. A month!! You dropped the final game of the Reds’ series, but you at least look slightly more formidable than you did a week ago. Your outlook still isn’t the brightest until all phases of the team start playing together. The offense, defense, starting pitching, and the bullpen have not been on the same page since your fast start. If you score eight runs, then you give up thirteen. If you only give up three runs, then you score one. Your bullpen remains terrible and your defense is shaky at best. Not exactly the formula for success. This week poses another difficult test and mediocrity could spell disaster. Here’s hoping this week is beginning of something better because more of the same could sink you permanently.

Monday was the toughest loss of the season. You were up 5-0 in the 7th inning on the road in Arizona and Joe Musgrove was cruising along. JHay had got hit in the back with a pitch the inning before and the next batter, Austin Meadows, got a pitch up and in. Musgrove and maybe the coaches decided that retaliation was necessary. Musgrove hit Chris Owings and then a wild pitch moved him to second. A single made it 5-1 and then an error put runners on first and second. Edgar Santana, part of the worst bullpen I can remember, came in for Musgrove. He proceeded to give up an RBI single to make it 5-2 and now the tying run was coming to plate in the person of perennial MVP candidate, Paul Goldschmidt. I assumed he would hit a homer to tie the game, but Santana actually struck him out. Instead the next batter, Jake Lamb, homered to tie it. From there another full bullpen implosion was on with Kyle Crick allowing four of the ugliest runs imaginable in the 9th. People will praise Musgrove for paying them back and focus on the Freese error and the bullpen being beyond dreadful and they wouldn’t be wrong. But I can’t stand this retaliation element in baseball especially when the D-Backs’ pitcher obviously wasn’t throwing at them on purpose. The game completely changed after Musgrove hit Owings. If he doesn’t do that, maybe Musgrove stays in the game longer and you don’t have to rely on your awful bullpen. You’re focused more on dignity then winning and in the process it cost you a game. I hope everyone in the clubhouse is really happy right now with that decision because at least their pride isn’t hurt. I grew up playing baseball and I have never understood for one second throwing at hitters as payback. You want to get revenge? Beat the damn team! Nothing hurts more than that. I have zero tolerance for this nonsense and I just hope it was worth it for everyone involved. Thanks for total garbage.

A report leaked this week that your players who are free agents after this year or next year could be available for trades at the deadline. Francisco Cervelli, Ivan Nova, Corey Dickerson, JHay, David Freese, and Jordy Mercer were the main names mentioned. The situation isn’t too dire yet because you are still only 3 ½ games out of a Wildcard spot, but it’s certainly worth listening to offers. As much as I love him, Cervelli is a reasonable candidate. He’s a free agent after next season and is currently having one of his best seasons (.880 OPS) though he’s been slumping over the last month only batting .185. For a 32 year old catcher who has a propensity for getting injured, you could potentially get good value for him now. It also helps that Elias Diaz has hit the ball very well in limited at bats. In 92 at bats, he’s batting .304, with a .850 OPS, and five homers. He’s got a canon for an arm which he needs to get under better control, but he seems like a solid everyday option. Nova had been pitching horrible before heading to the DL and his last two starts (1.54 ERA, 1.20 WHIP) since returning have been terrific. Nick Kingham is still in Triple-A coming off an absolutely dominant performance the other night (8 IP 2 H 0 R 0 BB 6 K), so you could promote him if Nova was traded. My confidence in Trevor Williams has certainly gone downhill, but pitching is such a premium that if Nova keeps pitching well you could get good value for him. I don’t think the return for Mercer or Freese will be worth much, but if you fall off I’m fine getting whatever you can for them. I’m less inclined to trade JHay or Dickerson. Polanco had a big day today but it’s hard to trust him to perform or stay healthy. Health is also a major concern with Austin Meadows and your depth in the minors doesn’t exist. As of now, you have no quality replacement for JHay. Kevin Kramer has hit well this year in Triple-A (.850 OPS, 10 HR’s), but I’m not sure he’s truly ready yet. JHay also provides intangible factors that don’t show up on the stat sheet. If you don’t get blown away by an offer, keep him. None of this is to say I’m giving up on the season, but you don’t look like a World Series contender right now. If that doesn’t change, you would be smart to get value back for these players.

I know everyone has been infatuated with Austin Meadows since his promotion. He started out hot as a firecracker and had continued at a solid pace. The fact that Gregory Polanco has been horrible this season only added to the admiration for Meadows, but I think some fans need to keep things in perspective. Every time Meadows isn’t in the starting lineup, it sets off fury of tweets with people almost insinuating you’re trying to lose. I like Meadows a lot. It’s important to ease him in due to his proclivity for injuries and that he’s a young player. The reality is he’s finally cooled off with only six hits in his last twenty-eight at bats (.214) with seven strikeouts, no homers, and three RBI’s. He also never walks with only four base on balls in 91 at bats this season. Polanco had a much better performance today going 3 for 3 with a walk, a homer, and 2 RBI’s. Polanco needs to show me a lot more before I think he should be playing more often than two to three times a week. I’m higher on Meadows than I’ve been since you drafted him. I just think everyone shouldn’t act like it’s the end of the world every time he gets a day off. You don’t want to burn him out and he’s obviously already started coming back to Earth. I still want to see him in the lineup four to five times per week and that’s enough.

This upcoming week is going to be another difficult one. You are at home this week but you play all seven days against two, first place teams. Monday through Wednesday, the Milwaukee Brewers come to town. They currently have the best record in the NL. They lead you by seven games in the division and are the perfectly exemplify my disappointment with you. The Brewers aren’t a big market team but they went out and acquired Christian Yelich through a trade and signed Lorenzo Cain. Both of them have OPS’ over .800 (Yelich .848, Cain .837). Add that to their excellent bullpen and a quality rotation (that might be playing a little over their heads right now) and you have a contender. They pushed their chips in when they saw their potential. You can’t say you did the same in 2013 through 2015. Starting Thursday, the Arizona Diamondbacks, leaders of the NL West by 1 ½ games, come to town for a four-game series. You lost two out of three to them in Arizona earlier this week but they didn’t appear to be leaps and bounds better than you. If your bullpen doesn’t implode and your defense wasn’t atrocious, you had a chance to win those two games. You finally won a series against a bad team, which is good, but it’s obvious that your problems have not been fixed. The way you succeed is to beat up on bad teams and split with good teams. Unfortunately, you got your butt kicked by good teams the past few weeks. Now would be a good time to change that. More poor performances against good teams this week could be the final nail in the coffin. Please prove me wrong! Please find some way to miraculously improve all of your flaws and beat up on some good teams! Please!! I’m begging you!

                                                                                                  On The Brink,

                                                                                                          Brad

P.S. stands for Please Stop and that’s in reference to your bullpen. They are a train-wreck right now. Even today, you trailed 6-1 and fought back to make it 6-5 in the 8th. Edgar Santana came on to pitch the top of the 9th , after blowing the game Monday, and gave up a two-run homer to make it 8-5. It hurt even more when you scored a run in the bottom of the 9th that would have tied the game. Michael Feliz pitched one inning yesterday and gave up a homer. He looked better today but is far from reliable. Tyler Glasnow pitched the 7th inning the other night with a lead and looked good doing it. He should be one of your late inning options along with Kyle Crick and obviously Vasquez. Steven Brault should be used in late innings too if you are facing a good lefty. I hope you are looking outside options. If you hope to be successful, you can’t keep going to these same guys and expecting different results. There’s no real options in the minors so, unless these guys improve dramatically overnight, a trade might be your only hope of improvement.

[iloveyoupittsburghpirates-blog]

I Can’t Keep Doing This, Pittsburgh Pirates

My Dearest Pittsburgh Pirates,

I guess this week could have gone worse. Whether it was getting one-hit and losing because two runs scored due to a slippery outfield, or going 0 for 13 with runners in scoring position, or scoring seven runs but losing by a run, and then in the next two days giving up five combined runs and losing both games. You have played bad baseball while losing 16 of your last 22 games but you have also had some poor luck. That’s still no excuse. You’re losing close games, which is the mark of a bad team. You did manage to pull off an impressive win today against the Cubs to avoid the sweep, but you have slipped far off the pace. You’re a game below .500, seven games out of first place, and five games out of a Wildcard spot with seven teams in front of you. You’re only a third of the way into the season and it’s hard to imagine you playing worse than you have over the last month, but you do always find ways to surprise me. Time to refocus and try to win some baseball games because your opponents don’t get any easier. If you don’t soon, this season will be over long before the All-Star break.

Austin Meadows looks extraordinarily real deal right now. We don’t know for sure how long this will last because we’ve obviously seen Josh Bell regress a considerable amount from his rookie year. Meadows’ splits are currently .356/.385/.561 for a 1.056 OPS with five homers, four doubles, three triples and three stolen bases in only 73 at bats. His BABIP of .356 is well above average which means that he’s due for a fall. He has a quick, short swing which helps with his contact and should keep his strikeout numbers down. He also doesn’t seem to struggle against lefties unlike some other lefty hitters on the roster. Obviously, it’s a small sample size but he’s batting .435 against lefties in 23 at bats. His defense is more than competent and his speed is an asset. He still hasn’t found his clutch gene yet with only one hit in nine at bats with runners in scoring position, but he was the NL Rookie of the Month for May and you desperately need him to work out. Your track record recently with developing top-tier talent has been less than stellar to say the least. My expectations for him, even after discussing him after his debut week, has elevated immensely.  I know people are clamoring for him to play everyday given his start and I understand the impulse. It’s important to keep in mind that Meadows has dealt with multiple injuries all through the minors. He also isn’t used to playing a full season in the majors because they play twenty less games in the minors than the pros. Meadows should be your everyday starter but everyone shouldn’t freak out over a day off here and there if you want to preserve his health.

I like Clint Hurdle but this season hasn’t been his best job. I’ve openly complained about some of his bullpen decisions this year and I also don’t agree with some roster decisions (more on that later) but those aren’t always his call. His lineup decisions are always highly ridiculed especially since Austin Meadows’ promotion. While I’m mostly okay with rotating the four outfielders, I do have some objections. Gregory Polanco finally had a clutch hit today, but he’s been playing too much. He should be relegated to two starts per week instead of the four he got this week. The even more egregious decision came on Saturday against lefty Jon Lester. In a game where you were one-hit and shutout, Hurdle started Polanco over Corey Dickerson. Dickerson has splits of .333/.370/.451 against lefties this season for a .821 OPS in 51 at bats. Conversely, Polanco’s splits against lefties this season are .154/.283/.333 for a .616 OPS in 39 at bats. For his career, he has a .593 OPS against lefties. There is no excuse for ever starting Polanco against a lefty especially one as good as Lester. If Hurdle’s feeling is he never wants to bench the lefty Dickerson against a righty, then maybe the answer is just starting Polanco less. I know you have years and money invested in him, but his career OPS of .718 is showing us what Polanco truly is. He’s a well-below average defender who can’t hit a pitch on the inside third of the plate. He has a negative WAR this season and even his .236 BABIP gives me very little hope. I don’t want to use this icky word, but I feel it’s the only one to describe Polanco: Bust. And Hurdle better never start him against a lefty ever again.

What’s wrong with Josh Bell? I know that I’ve complained consistently about Polanco, and with due right, but Bell’s OPS is currently 39 points lower than Polanco’s which seems nearly impossible to imagine. Bell’s splits of .237/.318/.368 for a .686 OPS caused him to finally get moved out of the cleanup spot this weekend. His OPS is right now the worst out of any starter on the team including the perennial mediocre hitter, Jordy Mercer. His slugging percentage has dropped almost 100 points from last season and he’s on pace for a dozen less homers this year. When you traded Cutch this off-season, I assumed Bell would be the heir-apparent the team’s offensive throne. After a season in which he finished third in Rookie of the Year voting, Bell has been a horrible disappointment. Even while he’s improved as a defender, he’s still nowhere near average. His value is strictly as a hitter and he’s been 70 points below average in OPS. Maybe this is just a sophomore slump. Teams tend to figure hitters weaknesses out. They don’t throw them as many fastballs or as many pitches over the plate. Sometimes it can take time for a hitter to readjust and figure out a way to beat those pitchers again. Sometimes they never figure it out. Let’s hope Bell is the former and not the latter.

The brutal schedule continues tomorrow. You travel west to take on the first place Arizona Diamondbacks and the red-hot, year in and year MVP candidate, Paul Goldschmidt. He was off to a slow start this season, but he’s gone absolutely crazy this last week. His splits this week are .667/.708/1.476 for a ridiculous 2.185 OPS with four homers, nine RBI’s, and five doubles. They’ve won seven of their last ten games and lead the NL West by 2 ½ games. Beating them at all will be difficult and beating them at home will be even harder. You get a day off Thursday before beginning a ten game homestand against the last place Reds, so you do get a reprieve from contending teams. They hold the worst record in the NL and the third worst record in baseball. That didn’t stop them from taking two out of three from you in a series a couple weeks ago. You better take advantage of them because the week after that is seven games against two first place teams, the Brewers and Diamondbacks. You’ve lost seven straight series. You can’t continue playing at this level if you have any hopes of contending. I’ve been saying the same thing for weeks and I’m honestly sick of it. Play better baseball. Simple as that. Next week’s letter better allow me to be more optimistic. Take care…

                                                                                      Extraordinarily Fed Up,

                                                                                                    Brad

P.S. stands for Picking Starters and as far as the rotation goes, I have a complaint. Today, Nick Kingham was optioned to Triple-A yet again to make room for Ivan Nova’s return. To be fair, Nova pitched well today (5 2/3 IP 4 H 1 ER 2 BB 8 K) beating the Cubs. Kingham has arguably been your most consistent starter lately. He pitched well on Saturday (6 1/3 IP 4 H 2 ER 2 BB 5 K) and the two runs scored only because Starling Marte slipped in the outfield on wet grass. It’s honestly crazy those are considered earned runs but that’s the way it works. Kingham has a 3.82 ERA and an insanely low 0.99 WHIP. We’ve discussed this before and I know you need to limit his innings, but there’s no excuse for not having your five best pitchers on the roster. Maybe this move will only be temporary, but you better fix it and fix it soon…