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Wilbur Ross: Trump presidency would be good for stocks

Critics of Donald Trump’s economic plan have called it magical thinking, predicting it would prompt a trade war, market selloff and recession. Just this week, Macroeconomic Advisers, a St. Louis–based forecasting firm, wrote that a Trump victory would send stocks sliding by a steep 7%, enough to wipe out about $1.3 trillion of the value from the S&P 500.

But some prominent Wall Street investors disagree.

“I think, actually, a Trump presidency would be very good for the stock market,” said billionaire investor Wilbur Ross, chairman and CEO of distressed asset specialist WL Ross & Co and a senior policy advisor to the Republican presidential candidate. “First of all, he’ll cut the corporate tax rate to 15%. Any company that’s now been paying 35% will have a 30% increase in their post-tax earnings, even if pretax doesn’t change.”

Ross is particularly convinced that Trump’s tax proposal allowing manufacturing companies to expense either corporate interest or capital investment will help the equities markets. “That has to be a real boom for capital spending. And capital spending has been one of the real laggards in this whole economy,” Ross said.

Ross also sees more downside risk for stocks under a Hillary Clinton presidency. “I think there’s more uncertainty with Hillary, because all we know is she wants to raise taxes on individuals and everybody in sight. We also know she wants to put in more regulations. I don’t think the stock market needs more regulations. I don’t think the banks need more regulations. I don’t think we as a country need more regulations,” he said.

Ross’ next market bet: the oil industry

Ross, known for his distressed debt investing in the steel and coal industries, recently ventured into high-yield bonds of independent oil and gas producers. He says the trade has started to work out quite well.

“As you notice, the price of oil is not going to zero, as some people feared,” Ross said. And while he isn’t betting oil will go back to $100, he still sees a lot of opportunity with prices in the $50 range. “Fifty dollars is a pretty good price for oil. [There] are plenty, plenty of operations that are profitable very nicely, even at these levels.”

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Apptio CEO: Now the right time for IPO

It’s been a slow year for initial public offerings. In fact, it has been the weakest on record since the financial crisis of 2008. But the sickly IPO market is finally showing signs of life. This week looks to be the busiest week for new issues all year, with September on track to be the most active month for all of 2016, according to Dealogic.

Among the new issues investors seemed eager to snap up in the last few days: Apptio. The tech company, which makes cloud software to help manage IT, surged more than 40% on its first day of trading. The Bellevue, Washington–based company sold 6 million shares for $16 a piece, above the marketed range of $13 to $15. Overall, the company raised $96 million.

Co-founder and CEO, Sunny Gupta, says that despite the trend of staying private longer, now was the right time for his company to go public. That said, he isn’t sure how many other tech companies will follow. He noted from Apptio’s roadshow that he learned the “bar is high” for IPOs right now. Apptio has not posted a profit yet, but its revenues climbed over 20% last year. The stock is listed on the Nasdaq, and its ticker is APTI.

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Why 'Brangelexit' might be bad for stocks

Forget the Fed tomorrow. The real indicator of whether this historic bull market is ending may have come today when Angelina Jolie filed for divorce from Brad Pitt.

This “breaking news” didn’t exactly rattle the markets. But whether you are Team Jen or Team Angie, we wanted to bring you a final tally on what these two couplings have meant for the overall stock market. From wedding day to divorce filing, Brad and Aniston witnessed a more than 16% decline in the S&P.

For Brangelina—and it is worth pointing out there is some debate over when to formally date the start of their relationship, but we will go with Aniston’s petition for divorce—the reign of Brangelina saw an 81% increase in the S&P. Just how good were these two for the market? The first trading day after their 2014 nuptials in France saw the S&P pierce 2,000 for the first time. And, of course, Brad and Angelina were together twice as long as Brad and Jen were married, allowing for more opportunities for the market to rally. That said, their relationship did survive the financial collapse and the great recession.

It just couldn’t last long enough to make a sequel to Mr. and Mrs. Smith.

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Why Kaepernick’s brand may be stronger than ever

We are all talking about him. His jersey is number one on the NFL sales chart. And he kept a spot on the 49ers roster.

Three weeks ago, that wasn’t necessarily the case. When San Francisco 49ers quarterback Colin Kaepernick decided to sit for the national anthem back in August as a protest over what he sees as the country’s oppression of people of color, the conventional wisdom was that “Kap” had committed a cardinal sin in the world of sports. To make the most of their relatively short careers, model professional athletes in the era of big-business sports need to be more committed to capitalism than controversy.

For former NFL Pro Bowler and The NFL Today commentator Bart Scott that’s what makes Kaepernick impressive. “He’s not the starting quarterback anymore. He’s a backup… When you’re the backup, you want to be seen and not heard, so to speak. So he’s fighting for what he believes in, and that’s what makes him more impressive to me, that at this vulnerable state of his career he’s willing to stand up and fight for something.”

As Scott notes, that can sometimes be detrimental. “You can become blackballed, because you can become bad for business. So it can hurt your ability to earn.” As the saying goes, Republicans buy shoes too.

For Kaepernick, though, his stand has had the opposite effect on his brand. His jersey sales have shot up. He is donating proceeds from the boost in sales to charities focused on racial and social inequality. He has also committed $1 million from his salary to those causes. The 49ers organization has also pledged $1 million in donations, and other athletes are following his lead by kneeling during the anthem.

Scott compares Kaepernick to Muhammad Ali, who refused to fight in the Vietnam War. “It’s never a convenient time to stand up for what you believe is right. And he also put his money where his mouth is. Him donating $1 million out of his salary, or out of his bank account, speaks volumes, meaning that he’s serious, that he’s not just standing up with pompoms and cheering, but he’s actually actively trying to do something,” he said.

Of course, Kap’s ability to make a difference off the field is still strengthened by his play on it. The 49ers face the Rams on Monday.

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If Trump and Clinton lose, this man could be your next vice president

If running for president is a popularity contest, our two leading candidates are struggling to break into the cool crowd. Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Donald Trump are two of the most unpopular major party candidates in history.

With their unfavorable ratings polling high, many voters are looking for alternatives to staying home on November 8. The leading option in the polls is the Libertarian ticket with former New Mexico governor Gary Johnson averaging around 9% nationally. His running mate is the former Republican Governor of the mostly Democratic Massachusetts, Bill Weld.

Together, Johnson and Weld are crisscrossing the US aiming to get their poll numbers to 15% so they can join the televised debates this fall.

Johnson has said the debates are make-or-break for the Libertarian ticket. Weld thinks the two have momentum heading into the post-Labor Day push and predicts “national outrage if we are very, very close and don’t get in because people want to hear alternatives.”

Weld stopped by Yahoo’s offices in New York City between fundraising calls and a nationally televised town hall. He and Johnson have been friendly since they were both governors in the 1990s and as Weld put it “were members of a mutual admiration society.” Now Weld calls his running mate “painfully honest” — kind words from the competitive Weld, considering Johnson had just beaten him in a game of chess.

The only presidential candidates to support the Trans-Pacific Partnership, Johnson and Weld see free trade as a key to new high wage jobs. “We’re always going to be net winners in free trade,” Weld says. They want more competition in the health care marketplace as well, but aren’t for an immediate repeal of Obamacare.

Weld describes the Libertarian ticket as “fiscally responsible” and “socially tolerant.” As for his old party — the GOP — Weld says “nobody would confuse them with being socially welcoming … they made a point of making their platform meaner in Cleveland than it was before.”

In case you had any doubt, Weld says he’s not going back to being a Republican: “I made my bed and I’m going to lie on it.”

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Why you are giving business gifts all wrong

A bottle of wine. A box of chocolates. A gift card.

If those gifts are on your corporate gift giving list, you are missing out on one of the secret skills of successful entrepreneurs and leaders, according to John Ruhlin, the author of “Giftology.” He believes radical and strategic generosity is an investment that pays off while climbing  the corporate ladder.

Ruhlin, the founder of gift logistics company The Ruhlin Group, has designed gift giving strategies for everyone from Fortune 500 companies to celebrities to Silicon Valley startups. One big mistake he sees companies make is confusing gifts with promotional items. Think logo polo shirts or magnets or pens. That’s not a gift, says Ruhlin. That’s an ad.

A sauna. A Brooks Brothers’ wardrobe. An ice cream scooper and bowls. Those are gifts Ruhlin’s used to make a sale, secure a meeting or just say thank you.

Sending the right business gift means breaking old habits. Ruhlin says gift cards are a no-no: “It’s like giving cash. But it’s like you can’t spend money anywhere else other than here. It’s an unthoughtful gift. No creativity. And it doesn’t make people feel warm and fuzzy, especially the higher up the food chain you go.”

If you are trying to get to the top of the food chain, one of Ruhlin’s strategies is to give gifts to the “inner circle” rather than the executive. “When I take care of an assistant or a spouse, they become my sales advocate. They are the ones that are like, have you called John back? Have you reached out to him? Have you done any business with him?” Ruhlin says.

Of course, gift giving can get expensive. Ruhlin recommends spending whatever you would spend on a round of golf, nice dinner out or ball game tickets. As he points out, “You should be willing to invest in something that’s tangible and lasting. I call it an artifact.”

Ruhlin loves buying gifts people will actually use on a regular basis. Knives for the kitchen. A fancy golf accessory. He steers clear of electronics, like an iPad, because most executives already have one. Most importantly, he never gives over the holidays when people are already inundated with gifts.

Most gifts Ruhlin gives range between $100 and $500. If that is out of your budget, Ruhlin says a simple hand-written note can also do the trick.