jakesmith-pats

[jakesmith-pats]

Rodgers has everything to gain & everything to lose

-1st time hosting Conference Champ game

-What Rodgers sees as important

-Talent

3 minute read

���We gotta get one of these at home.” -Aaron Rodgers

This was what Rodgers said to former teammate Jordy Nelson late in the 4th quarter as they watched the Falcons punch their ticket to super bowl 51 in the NFC conference game of 2016. This Sunday will be the first time Rodgers & the Packers have hosted a conference championship at Lambeau Field. The forecast will be a classic Lambeau field playoff game with temperatures in the low 20s with a good chance of snow. Aaron Rodgers is just like Tom Brady in which the 2 are the best cold weather quarterbacks to ever play the game. However this year feels right for the Packers.

For years Rodgers has had a coach he didn’t respect, would often call his own plays & ignore the coach. Now he has a coach in which he was hesitant with at first, but in his second year with LaFleur he has completely bought in to the Kyle Shanahan offense and has 48 Touchdown passes & the 2nd highest QB rating of all time only behind who? Aaron Rodgers in 2011. The reason Rodgers & his teams have never hosted a championship game is because his teams have not taken care of business in the regular season. This year is different. This year the Packers took care of business (with the help of playing one of the easiest schedules in the league). They have done what good teams do. Beat teams you are supposed to beat & beat every one else while you’re at it. Rodgers has had to do so much less this year because the offense & play calling is much more efficient, he hasn’t had to run around & extend plays & make crazy throws as often.

With all that being said Rodgers has always been a “me first guy” & he still is. To reference Rodgers is on Pat McAfee show once a week (which is so insufferable) & also meets with the press once a week. He made remarks about how cool it would be to win a 3rd MVP, how he cares about the individual accolades & how he should be in the conversation as the GOAT. He made claims to how he should have won MVP in 2012 & 2016. Here’s my thing if you want to be considered the GOAT: Aaron, you gotta win more. In my eyes Aaron Rodgers has the most talent I’ve ever seen on the football field. That doesn’t win you superbowls, that doesn’t do anything for me. Big deal, the ball looks cool coming out of your hand, you can extend plays, you can make throws without your feet being set, cool man. I don’t care. How do you perform in January when the money is pushed to the middle of the table. You know who else was talented? Guys like Tracy McGrady, Ken Griffey Jr, Dan Marino. Guys with great talent but never considered in the best ever conversations because they couldn’t win. Stats are great, accolades are great, however what separates the good from the greats is the simple question, ‘Did you do both’? Manning, Brady, Montana all did both. No matter the circumstance, can you rise to the occasion & elevate others around you? Prove it. This is your year. I do believe Rodgers & the Packers have a shot at winning the whole thing. In my opinion this will be the last chance for Rodgers. The packers are getting older in some key roles such as players entering free agency like Aaron Jones, Jamal Williams & his all pro center Corey Linsley (along with some defensive pieces). In order to get a seat at the table Rodgers has to win.

Rodgers wants in that conversation so bad & he thinks his talent & counting MVPs is what is going to get him there. Look, Tom Brady is in a category all on his own. Everyone else is playing for silver & bronze. In the silver category you have guys like Manning, Montana. Then bronze you have guys like Elway, Brees, Farve, Marino, Big Ben, Staubach. Those are guys that would give you really good stats on paper, well respected guys but never really won anything or guys that should have won more than they did. Rodgers for me is top tear bronze currently & there is so much riding on this opportunity for him the next few weeks to solidify himself in those conversations. I’m sure if Rodgers loses he will be happy with his MVP award but thats not what true greatness is defined on, Aaron. Maybe he just doesn’t get it.

[jakesmith-pats]

Turmoil in Tampa

“The most important relationship a head coach has on his team is with the QB. He’s the one who runs the show on the field; he’s the ultimate extension of his coach. If there isn’t a high level of mutual trust between them, both coach and QB will be doomed.”-Bruce Arians- The self proclaimed QB Whisperer

What we are witnessing in Tampa is nothing short of a disaster. Bruce Arians has continually thrown Tom Brady under the bus with taking zero accountability (which he has been known to preach on). Seems as though Arians has been trying to get out in front of all this to make excuses to keep his job. News flash, your offensive scheme blows. There has never been an NFL offense that has had the “no risk it- no biscuit” & won a Super Bowl. The chucking & slinging the ball all over the field has never & will never work. Bruce Arians has been historic in his teams interceptions. In 1998 Peyton Manning threw league & career high 28 picks with the next 2 seasons at 15 a piece. He goes to Cleveland & his QB throws 21, 22, 18 picks. Takes over in Pittsburg in 07 with 14, 15, 14, 9, 15 even with Tomlin wanting a run first offense, Arians allowed for Big Ben to be sacked an astonishing 215 times in just 5 years. Which is an issue in Tampa in itself with there being so much interior rush pressure he can’t step into his throws. News flash if you want to throw deep you have to have protection or use play action. Brady is has been hit the 5th most in the league. Back to the topic in 2012 gets Andrew Luck (the best prospect since Manning) throws 18 picks 1 behind league leader Drew Brees also gets Luck sacked 41 times. Goes to Arizona 22 picks 41 sacks, 12 picks 28 sacks, 13 picks 25 sacks, 17 picks 40 sacks, 18 picks 52 sacks. Bruce then goes to Tampa where his QB throws a historic 30 picks against 47 sacks. The down the field attack DOES NOT WORK.

PLAY ACTION

Play action allows time for the QB to get extra protection by freezing the linebackers and gives the safety’s something extra to think about, allowing the receivers to find open spaces & take those shots down the field. Seems to me when they go play action Brady is able to find the open guy down field between Godwin & Gronk.

MOTION

Everyone & their mom knows you use pre snap motion to be able to determine if the coverage is man or zone. The Bucs lead the league in the lowest usage of pre snap motion. Arians has put Brady on blast for not reading the coverage correctly, hey Bruce it makes it a little easier if you use motion so your QB can get you in the right play. Arians has also said we make our reads after the snap of the ball. What? What kind of offense operates like that. Tom Brady has made his career by knowing what the defense is in and making calls to put his team in the best spots & mythically marching the ball down the field knowing where he is going with the ball before the ball is even snapped.

WHAT YOU SHOULD DO AS A COACH

The thing that separates a good coach from a great coach is the ability to use their roster to its strength. The Patriots operated in a way that allowed for Brady to make presnap calls with routes, line protection, audibles all at Bradys will. With Arians its break the huddle and snap the ball. Literally. There is no looking at the defense making line calls from Brady or Jensen, audibles, hots, nothing. Why have one of the smartest players to ever play the game not use his best asset; his brain. Over the 20 years Tom was in New England I never saw him glaze over his wristband as long as he has to after the huddle breaks. That is a sign that Tom is not comfortable with the play call or he knows it won’t work. Arians & Byron Leftwich calling these plays has to have him thinking “why am I letting this paint drinker & former scrub QB call these plays”.

THERE IS NO SCHEME

There is no game plan each week. It’s the same offensive sets, same route concepts, same predictable play calling. Receivers just running around, not being able to read coverage. Every week I watch this team on offense I see the same plays & a massive inability to adjust during the game. Live & die by no risk it- no biscuit. It is gut wrenching football to watch with all that talent the Bucs have.

WHAT TOM NEEDS TO DO

During this bye week for the Bucs he needs to walk into Arians offense telling him to put down the booze & kit kats & tell him we need to run the offense that we ran in New England. After all why would you bring in Tom Brady and tell him “hey scrap what has made you the greatest of all time and try this”. When Manning went to Denver he walked in the coaches office & told them we are running the Tom Moore offense & guess what, it worked. Why would you ask a 43 year old QB to throw in 50 yards down the field once out of every 3 plays. Doesn’t seem like a good formula.

DEFENSE

In 4 of the 5 loses the Bucs have had have been because they have played soft zone & only rushed 3 or 4 guys. Hey heres a great idea, lets sit back in soft zone against Drew Brees, Jared Goff & Nick Foles. Oh here is an even better idea, lets guard Tyreek Hill 1 on 1 with no safety help. I wonder if after they first quarter of that Chiefs game Arians wondered hmmm maybe we should double Hill & Kelce after 7 catches for 203 yards 2 TDs IN ONE QUARTER for Hill alone.

Everything is out of sync for the Bucs, offense, defense, coaching, it’s all the more evidence how much football is culture, coaching & executing.

TOM HAS PART OF THE BLAME

Shame on Tom for thinking he could make this work. To go down to Tampa where Arians has a reputation & offensive scheme that makes no sense. Shame on Tom for being so oblivious to the fact that he would be getting into an offense that is called by Byron Leftwich. Toms arm strength is still good, he still has a lot of velocity on the ball & still throws a tight spiral but the timing with his receivers & communication is very off. Mike Evans looks like he only knows how to run straight. He has no awareness on how to read a defense, get to the hot spot and sit in the correct spot; the guy just can’t figure out what he is supposed to run unless he is running a go. Gronk should have stayed retired, tho he has looked better than at the beginning of the year. The running backs are HORRIBLE. Tom has always had someone to come out of the backfield that can catch little flats, swings, screens, Texas routes etc. It’s pretty clear why no one wanted Fournette, RJ2 is so hit or miss but can’t catch passes either. The Bucs receivers & backs lead the league in drops. Tom has put the ball into tight windows all year, sometimes it comes down to being able to haul in those passes when you have tight 1 on 1 coverage. Toms glazed over look during these games I completely believe is because he knows this offense will not work unless he is the one running it how he wants to run it & unless Arians sobers up & realizes that then Tom will be trying to get Josh McDaniels down there to take over as the next head coach.

Tom Brady is #1 in the NFL in On Target Throws, Air Yards, Air Yards per play, & 2nd in Completed Air Yards. Tom Brady is playing at a high level but they don’t have everything together. They need to take the bye week, have a come to Jesus meeting & decide what they are going to be on offense & who is going to call the shots. I 100% believe if Tom runs the offense the Bucs can win a playoff game or 2. How they are looking now they are almost a sure lock for a first round exit.