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Your Covid-19 Risk Based on CDC and Other Reputable Data

Lawrence Trainor   7/10/20

In order for individuals to determine the risks of covid-19 for themselves, they need information. It has been stated by leaders and experts that we should follow the science. In science data is analyzed to gain greater understanding of a situation. Yet when we are getting our daily fill of news on covid-19, the news is focused on one or two pieces of information, apparently to alarm the whole population.

Without providing detailed full information regarding age, underlying conditions and location for cases, hospitalizations and deaths, the reporting agencies are doing a disservice to the American public.

Should People under 65 Years Old Fear Covid-19?

This lack of information led me to have certain questions. Perhaps other people may have had these questions, so I thought I should make this available.

Following are some of the statistics I found very interesting. Anyone can find the information. The sources of my information are the CDC, Statistica.com and other known sources.

Locational statistics  

Per the CDC, as posted on 7/8/2020, for the period from 2/1/2020 to 7/4/2020, the six states of New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Illinois had 67,997 listed as covid-19 deaths out of the 114,741 total covid-19 deaths for the United States. That means the other 44 states have a total of 46,744 of the country’s deaths. 

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/COVID19/index.htm

The population of those 6 states above is about 21.4% of the U.S. population, yet they had 59.3% of the deaths for the U.S. While the population of the other 44 states is estimated at 78.6% of the country’s population, they had 40.7% of the U.S. deaths. There are additional differences for locations within each state. The county a person lives in should be able to provide that data.

These are large variations. So, when they give only the total number of cases and deaths, they are painting a uniform picture for the country when people need to consider the actual Location they live in as part of the factors in assessing their risk.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/COVID19/index.htm

Age statistics

Per the data posted by the CDC on 7/1/2020, the total number of people below the age of 65 whose deaths were listed as covid-19 from Feb 1, 2020 to June 27, 2020 was 21,866 people out of 112,226 total covid-19 deaths for the entire United States. So, only 19.4% of the deaths listed as covid-19 are for people under the age of 65. That is good news for people in that Age group.

https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Provisional-COVID-19-Death-Counts-by-Sex-Age-and-S/9bhg-hcku/datahttps://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/COVID19/index.htm                 https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Provisional-COVID-19-Death-Counts-by-Sex-Age-and-S/9bhg-hcku/data

For people below the age of 55 during that time period, the number of deaths listed as covid-19 is 8,401 in the United States. If we then consider location, it is interesting to see how many people died of this age group in the 44 states other than the ones mentioned above. Applying the 41.6% of the deaths that occurred in these 44 states, then for people younger than 55, there are a total of 3,495 deaths in all of those 44 states. That is 3,495 deaths under 55 years old out of a population of approximately 259,500,000 people living in those states. That is a lot lower than other diseases.

Underlying Conditions

“According to a CDC report in USA Today, nearly 90% of adult patients hospitalized with COVID-19 in the US had one or more underlying diseases.” This indicates that underlying conditions may be more a factor than age. That is good news for any age group, but also encouraging news for those over 65 who are in good health.                                                               https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/news/2020/04/15/coronavirus-risk-90-patients-had-underlying-conditions/2962721001/                           https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6915e3.htm

That means in 5 months since 2/1/2020, there have been 2.187 covid-19 listed deaths for the whole country that were under 65 and did not have an underlying condition. And for people living in the 44 states mentioned above, we can estimate that 909 covid-19 listed deaths under 65 that did not have an underlying condition out a population of 259 million people in those 44 states.

People not at Nursing Homes

There is additional good news for people over 65 in the six hardest hit states noted above who are not staying in nursing homes. In New Jersey, almost 50% of the covid-19 deaths occurred in nursing homes. In Pennsylvania as of 7/10/20, 4,669 of the 6,880 (68%) covid-19 deaths have occurred in nursing homes.  So, the risk for people over 65 years old who are not staying in nursing homes is greatly reduced.                               https://www.aarp.org/caregiving/health/info-2020/coronavirus-nursing-home-cases-deaths.html                                                                                                                         https://www.health.pa.gov/topics/disease/coronavirus/Pages/LTCF-Data.aspx

It is good policy to protect people in nursing homes. People with underlying conditions should consider staying at home, depending on their condition and their doctor’s advice. Those people also living with people who have underlying conditions should also take additional precautions. The relatively healthy people of our country should be able to get back to the business of living, while practicing good hygiene.

Decline in deaths

As reported by the CDC on 7/8/20, the number of people dying per week in the country has gone from 16,886 for the week of 4/18/20 to 8,917 for the week of 5/16/20 to 2,532 for the week of 6/20/20. Despite some changes in the trend, most people should find this great news and that we are going in the right direction.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/COVID19/index.htm                                                                             https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm (interesting graph showing decline)

Originally, we were told we needed to lockdown in order to bend the curve of deaths. The press is now more concerned about the number of cases because deaths are down, but cases are not deaths. People get sick all the time and we do not shut down the states.

Here is a couple examples of states. From 2/1/20 to 7/4/2020, South Dakota had 86 covid-19 listed deaths and did not lockdown their state. Maine which has a little larger population had 109 covid-19 listed deaths. When you compare the experience of South Dakota, was it necessary for Maine to have that strict of a lockdown?

Based on the above data on age and underlying conditions, you could estimate that of the 109 deaths in Maine, there would be an estimated 4 covid-19 listed deaths for people under 65 with no underlying conditions.  On a cost/benefit analysis of the lockdown, the Maine lockdown came at a high cost to the vast majority of people and businesses in that state. Cost/benefit analyses are done all the time to determine policy.                                                                                 https://www.cdc.gov/policy/polaris/economics/cost-benefit-analysis.html

There should be real concerns by citizens of states still imposing lockdowns. By all means, people can practice hand washing and have people stay home who are sick. And, as mentioned, keep the vulnerable safe.

Other Countries

Japan has a population of 126 million and several densely populated cities. Tokyo has a population of about 13.3 million and has had 325 covid-19 deaths. New York city has 8.4 million people and 20,328 deaths. NYC City has over 95 times the deaths per capita compared to Tokyo.  Yet Japan has done this without lockdowns. This is shocking information and yet it is rarely mentioned in the news reports.

Sweden as of 7/10/20, has covid-19 5500 deaths. Sweden has a population of 10.1 million which is higher than New Jersey’s 8.9 million. The number of listed covid-19 deaths in New Jersey as of 7/4/20 is 13,484. New Jersey locked down its state. But Sweden has done 2.8 times better per capita than New Jersey. Sweden has been criticized for not fully locking down. It is not always mentioned, but Sweden did have some early restrictions that helped them keep businesses open.

However, Sweden did not do enough to protect the nursing homes, so they could have improved that and saved lives. In Sweden as of 7/8/20 for people under 70 years old, there were a total of 604 deaths. That means only 11% of the covid-19 deaths in Sweden were under 65 years old. So, they were not successful in the nursing homes, but they were successful for the working age people in Sweden.                                                                           https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/                                 https://www.statista.com/statistics/1107913/number-of-coronavirus-deaths-in-sweden-by-age-groups/                                                   https://english.alarabiya.net/en/coronavirus/2020/06/29/Coronavirus-World-still-doesn-t-understand-Sweden-s-COVID-19-expert-says        

New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Illinois have 1% of the world’s population, but 15% of the world’s covid-19 deaths. Something does not make sense. Are we being given bad information? Are the strategies in those states that incompetent? Should this be investigated?  

Current increases information

Earlier in the pandemic, the news outlets were pushing the number of deaths and lowering that curve to reopen states, but now that that is on a decline, they are pushing cases. Of course, if you re-open a state where people are active again and at the same time you increase testing, there will be an increase in the number of cases diagnosed. The media has failed to provide any information that there is any change in the fact that most covid-19 listed deaths occur for elderly people with poor health.  

Let’s look at some actual numbers posted as of July 10. Florida’s cases per day have gone from 1214 cases on April 8 to 757 on May 31 to 9,255 on July 4. That is a spike, but there needs to be more information to assess the situation. Florida covid-19 listed deaths went from 51 deaths on April 8 to 31 deaths on May 31 to 48 deaths on July 8. So, while the cases have increased, deaths have remained relatively low compared to the experience of the hardest hit states.                                    

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/state-timeline/new-deaths/florida/0 (other states can be found on this site by changing the state in the drop-down box)

It seems better to be open now during the healthier, sunny summer months when people will fight the virus better. Florida reported recently that the average age of people testing positive has gone from 56 years old earlier in the pandemic to 36 years old recently. Many of these positive tests are asymptomatic or mild cases.

Working Age People

Working age people are mostly under 65 years old. On a cost/benefit calculation, considering the information above, it seems we are destroying small businesses and people’s jobs with the current lockdowns.

So, knowing this information one can go to the website links above and see where they fit in, as far as their age and location, to determine their risk. Of course, one can still take the precautions that are advised or required. And they also should take into account whether they have an underlying condition or if someone they live with is in an at-risk group.

Remaining questions

There are questions I still have that the experts do not have answers or have not attempted to answer on this pandemic. In fact, I still have a lot of questions. Following is one question that should be addressed immediately for the sake of our culture.

How many people have died from covid-19 by going to restaurants, hair salons, fitness centers, the beaches or houses of worship?

I hope someday, we get the answers to the questions I have rather than the fear mongering that the media seems obsessed with. I plan to continue to look into these questions.

So, should people under 65 fear covid-19? I hope the above information can help assess your risk and if you really need to fear covid-19. Remember to take into account the location you live, your age and if you have an underlying condition. You can visit the sites above to continue to understand your situation.

I wish all of you well and that we can get back to living full and free lives.

Lawrence Trainor

© Copyright 2020

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Coronavirus and Our Way of Life

March 28,2020

Following are some facts and observations that need to be looked at, so we can get back to the living our lives while reducing the risk of the coronavirus.

The Governors who are shutting down things longer and harsher than the original 15-day recommendations by the President are creating fear and stopped production. These actions will harm many people’s lives even if they do not get sick. The mayor of Los Angeles is promoting on how long he thinks people should be locked down without looking at all his duties to the citizens of city.

They say they are doing this because they care about people’s health. If the Governors really cared about every life, then there are other areas they should suggest we do something about.

I heard someone mention on the radio that we have 35,000 deaths from car accidents each year. The Governors should either propose a ban on vehicles or change the speed limit to 25 miles an hour. Someone can say that is not real, but then they have accepted that a certain amount of people will die in car accidents each year. And in saying that, they are then considering other factors than just people’s health. And we do need to consider all factors in our decisions.  

We can also go with the flu, as another example. I’ve heard people say that the coronavirus is not the same as the flu. That may be true, but there are many types of flu.  I believe coronavirus is a form of the flu. Whether the coronavirus is similar or different than the various flus, the actual concern for any disease is severity and contagion of any illness.

Many get the coronavirus and either do not have symptoms or experience mild to moderate symptoms. In other words, people recover. The other concern is the number of deaths from the coronavirus.  

As of March 27, 2020, there are about 1400 deaths in the United States from the coronavirus according to the news. Two years ago, there were 61,000 deaths from the flu per Health.com. That is 5,000 deaths a month in the United States from the flu. With those numbers for the flu, we should be seeing, on the news, the number of cases of the flu and how many of those cases have died so far this season. It seems the media leaves out the full picture of the situation.

All those lives were precious. Yet these Governors did not seem to care about those lives enough to lockdown their states, during the flu season, over the last 10 years or during the more serious pandemics every couple years of that period. Other outbreaks over the last couple decades had high mortality rates. The Governors did not even tell us to wash our hands then. But now they need to lockdown their entire state.

The CDC covers one huge 20-44 age range in its report, but here’s what we know about that group: 14.3 percent hospitalized, 2 percent in the ICU, and 0.1 percent fatality rate. https://www.vox.com/2020/3/23/21190033/coronavirus-covid-19-deaths-by-age That is about the same as the flu for that age group.

An older person may be more susceptible to the coronavirus, but not all older people. It is up to the older people themselves to decide whether they go out of their house or not. They should stay home if they are sick or they decide that staying home would be the best for them, depending on their condition.

So overall, which is worse: coronavirus or flu? That's not really an easy question to answer, says Dr. Brown. "It depends on what you mean by worse,” he says. “More easily spread? Then it appears to be coronavirus. Causes more cases of serious illness. Then it’s flu.” https://www.health.com/condition/infectious-diseases/coronavirus-worse-than-flu

With the coronavirus, we should follow the prescribed hygienic precautions, such as washing the hands, covering the mouth when coughing or sneezing and cleaning surfaces. These things have long been recommended before the coronavirus and are good practices.                            

If one person has the coronavirus, then it seems it could start up again. It is doubtful we will wipe out all cases of the coronavirus. Yet the increasing spread will slow down to where there are very few new cases. Our medical experts have not explained the reason for this, because they may not fully understand this.

We should hear more about the malaria medicine that France has tested successfully. People should know the risks, like for any drug, and decide if they want to try it. Yet this is not talked about enough by our experts. It could save lives.

An expert in England predicted that 500,000 British people would die from the coronavirus. The same expert has now changed it to 20,000. That is a huge difference. So, experts do not always have it right.

Sweden is not locking down their country and they are in a colder climate which is more conducive to the coronavirus than the warmer climate of the United States.

South Korea did not lockdown their country and their new cases are in a decline.

Besides medicine, there is a lot of medical studies that show how good nutrition and sleep are factors in keeping one’s immune system strong. Someone who takes care of themselves will be less susceptible to disease and recover better when they do get sick.

It seems odd that medical experts would not use all available information in their own literature, especially when these nutrients are not that expensive.

These are facts that the top medical experts in our country have not mentioned or explained well enough. But this information is needed for leaders to decide how to handle this situation.

I’m sure the medical experts in the U.S. are well intended, but they are over only their area of expertise. Our leaders have to think about our entire country and our connections with the rest of the world. Although, health is vital, there are other factors that have to be considered by our leaders.

The recommendations the President made for 15 days on March 16th included engaging in schooling from home when possible, not gathering in groups of 10 or more people, not participating in discretionary travel, and not going to bars, restaurants and food courts.  

The Governors reacted wildly to this and turned this into a forced lockdown. The President had no intention to shut down all these businesses. Yet some Governors are allowing wedding gatherings. I think that is good. But do the Governors feel a wedding is more important than a business that took someone half a lifetime to build or more important than the people who work at those businesses.

On another radio show, the host showed the lack of understanding by designating only a few activities as essential. He played a film from decades ago that illustrated how many businesses were involved in the manufacture of a pencil. It was a brilliant example of how essential all our businesses are.

The President made recommendations and guidelines and during that first five days of the 15-days restrictions, most people cooperated. That is America. He did not lockdown our country. I hope those Governors who locked down their states do not have a political agenda with what they are doing, but I’m beginning to wonder about that.

I am not the only one saying that we shouldn’t go beyond the original 15-day restrictions for our country in order to beat this virus. We are beating it. People have gotten this virus are recovering. There are solutions in available for better health. I just wanted to point out some things I’ve heard that make sense and state my observations that I am not hearing in the media.

The longer we wait to get back to functioning again as a culture, the harder it will be to recover. We should continue our precautions. We should learn from other countries that are still functioning. We should put all the evidence as mentioned above into perspective. And we should get back to being productive and building our future.

Lawrence Trainor

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Who is responsible for the beginning of freedom for all in the United States?

Recently, there has been an attack on the Founding Fathers of the United States, and in particular Thomas Jefferson. The attacks are on the basis that they were slave owners. I will address that point in a moment. It seems the people who are attacking our country’s Founders may have another political agenda that goes beyond destroying the reputation of these men. My concern is that they may affect others to see things from a limited and one-sided point of view. So, I am communicating my thoughts to provide a broader view of the subject that I have not heard others fully express.

Our Founding Fathers were born into a world where slavery already existed. That was the culture at that time. And the slave culture has existed in one form or another in many parts of the world among many races and cultures. It is good news that in the last couple hundred years freedom for people has become more and more stable and that the type of slavery that existed then is probably at an all- time low in the history of humankind. We should be proud that we have advanced to where most people are no longer tolerant of the idea of slavery.

What people are missing is that the change started in 1776 when Thomas Jefferson wrote in the Declaration of Independence that all people are created equal. But he did not act alone. Many of the Founding Fathers also signed this agreement. With this as the starting action, they created a government to be run by, for and of the people. These actions had never been done before in human history to this degree. People can speculate on what they meant, but their words have been embraced to include all humans. I believe, that is exactly what they intended and expected that this would change the course of future history.

The people who try to bring down the Founders of our republic, also want to destroy the creations of those men – our Constitution and the Bill of Rights. We cannot let that happen. We can’t forget our heritage. It is said that those who don’t know the past are doomed to repeat it. We can learn from our mistakes. Those that see only the bad in our past never mention anything good about the Founders. Their words only destroy men without providing any inspiration for the future.

Whatever the status of people through our history, all races have built our country. All races are part of the heritage of our country. We are better off than 240 years ago. Our heritage is part of who we are today. Our goal is to continue to carry on the dreams of freedom all our ancestors hoped for. We cannot let people who want to destroy our culture take our dreams for greater freedom and prosperity from us.

The actions of the Founding Fathers opened the door for slavery to be ended. Certain of the Founding Fathers had spoken against the concept of slavery. Changes do not always occur overnight. Slavery was part of the economic system in a fair amount of our country. Do the people who attack the Founding Fathers believe that just because Jefferson and the other Founding Fathers stated that all people are created equal that slavery would end the next day?

In 1778, Jefferson introduced a Virginia law prohibiting the importation of enslaved Africans. In 1807, twenty-nine years later, President Jefferson signed a law prohibiting the importation of slaves into any place within the United States.  

Without the bold actions of the Founding Fathers, it is possible that slavery would still be with us today. Their creation gave strength and official documents that one day would allow Lincoln to issue the Emancipation Proclamation. Lincoln, himself, who ended slavery, recognized the contributions of the Founding Fathers in his Gettysburg address. If Lincoln could see this, I think we need to also recognize the positive aspects of what the Founders role was in ending slavery.

All people have short-comings. Whatever short-comings people perceive of Jefferson, no one can take away the impact and inspiration his words in the Declaration of Independence had then and continue to have in our world today.

Many blacks participated in winning the War of Independence. The war may very well have been lost without the support and sacrifices of those black families. One of many examples of blacks’ contribution to the war was Oliver Cromwell. A newspaper article at the time of the war mentioned Cromwell’s crossing the Delaware River with General Washington and his participation in the American victory at the Battle of Trenton, General Washington, himself, stated that Cromwell deserved to wear the badges of honor for his efforts in the war.  

The black men who contributed to winning the War of Independence also helped set in motion what the Founding Fathers intended. Their actions created a ripple that eighty years later saw the end of slavery for their own people. How cool is that? If we wipe out the contributions of the Founders, we then wipe out the memory of the brave black patriots who helped create the freedom we now have. Maybe instead of tearing down statues, we should erect a few more for those who have not been fully recognized for their contributions. I believe, most people know, it is best when we work together toward common goals.  

Criticizing the Founding Fathers will not solve the problems we have today. I could write more on this, but for now I can say something that most will agree on. Education is the key. That may have been said by many others, but our education model doesn’t need reform, it needs a whole new approach. If you look around, there are too many people who are not prepared to be self-sufficient. That is not a good foundation for a culture.  

We cannot judge the Founding Fathers from the way our world is now. Their world was different then and they set into motion a change to those conditions. They should be recognized for their important contributions to this movement. The effects of their actions have gone beyond our own borders and the ideas of freedom that were started in our country have influenced the rest of the world. Their vision was for life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness for all people. I’m proud of that. I hope others our proud of that as well.  

Lawrence Trainor

Ref. GeneologyBank for Oliver Cromwell information 

 ©Copyright 2017 Lawrence Trainor