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NOSHITSUM 10 October, 2017

Update: Catalans

In a speech this afternoon, the President of the autonomous Spanish region of Catalonia related he would follow through on the results of the referendum for independence. He stopped short of an immediate declaration of independence, to leave time to negotiate, effectively putting the move on hiatus. The Spanish government continues to condemn the push for independence, the Major powers of Europe have all thrown in with the Spanish government, and business leaders have started moving their headquarters out of Barcelona.

Update: ISIS/ISIL/IS/Daesh

The  last major ISIS stronghold in Northern Iraq, Hawija, has fallen. They still own terrain towards the Syrian border, but nothing on the scale of Hawija or Tal Afar. They are a far cry from defeated, and you would do well to remember that they started without owning terrain.

Update: Kenya

The opposition leader Odinga has withdrawn from the re-vote due to concerns about it not having anymore integrity than the original.

Update: Niger

4 American soldiers died in an Ambush while advising security forces on a patrol. They are the first American service members to die from hostile fire in this particular mission. While it could have been any of several groups, the attack happened in an area where Al Qa’ida affiliate al Qa’ida in the Islamic Mahgreb operates. Point of Information: What makes someone a “terrorist”? There are several opinions you or others may have based on the dictionary definition or what have you. The only one that really matters is the legal definition, the one that puts people away. TerrorISM is defined as  "the unlawful use of force and violence against persons or property to intimidate or coerce a government, the civilian population, or any segment thereof, in furtherance of political or social objectives" (28 C.F.R. Section 0.85). Note the final bit, “in furtherance of political or social objectives” as the motive. SO a TerrorIST is someone who commits the act with that intent. The media and politicians will call it whatever suits their rhetoric, but the one that matters will always be the one that shows up on the charge sheet.

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NOSHITSUM 3 October, 2017

Houthi Rebels (Shia) and Yemen (Sunni) +Coalition Forces

The Yemeni civil war has left large swaths of the country in ruin since it really kicked off in 2015, though the sentiments that fuel the conflict have roots several decades deep. The typical news cast regarding the conflict will be about Saudi bombers indiscriminately causing civilian casualties. While the Saudis are conducting most of the kinetic operations on behalf of the halfway toppled official Yemeni government, the coalition is comprised of several gulf and African nations with US support in intelligence and special forces. Operating in the area you’ll find elements of ISIS and Al Qa’ida in the Arabian Peninsula taking advantage of the lack of a governing presence. Based out of the more rural areas, they have conducted several bombings targeting Pro-Hadi government forces.

Houthis: Shia who claim to be fighting against Salafist presence and unfair politics.

The Government of Yemen: Led by President in Exile Abdrabbuh Mansur Hadi, originally acquiesced the Houthi demands and resigned under duress after several military defeats. After fleeing to safety, he claimed the Houthis had committed a coup d’état.

One of the biggest effects is the level of security in the Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea, which is likely why the US has a stake in this war at all, besides the terrorism nexus. Though piracy in the area has been hammered by multinational efforts and private security on ships.

 Biggest Winners: TBD

Biggest Losers: the people of Yemen

  Israel and Palastine

I’m going to go ahead and wash this of political nuance, I do not back, support, etc either side. Go back far enough you’ll find there are plenty of terrible actions to smear both sides without even getting into the who was where first. What you need to know is the conflict has spawned some of the most professional terrorists to walk this earth. What keeps it going is nationalist rhetoric on both sides that will accept no compromise.

Confrontations between both sides range from conventional engagements between organized forces and lobbing artillery at each other to your typical terrorist attacks. Bombings, car ramming, and shootings have claimed several American lives since the birth of Israel’s current reincarnation.

Most recently, a Palestinian individual opened fire on an Israeli check point near Jerusalem, killing three. In this instance, the targets were soldiers, but that is not always or even mostly the case. There are many attacks where Americans and others are collateral, which also plays into the hands of terrorist by increasing the amount of publicity drawn by the attack.

 Biggest Winners: TBD

Biggest Losers: Palestinians

  Al Shabaab and Somalia

Al Shabaab has plagued Somalia and its neighbors for years. Though the organization peaked in 2014 and is currently relegated to the countryside, it is still actively combating Somali security forces and their allies. The militant Islamic group aims to establish an Islamic theocracy in Somalia. Despite sounding similar to ISIS ideology, the group rebuffed a call for allegiance from the Islamic State and killed off several of its members who defected. Al Shabaab has been an affiliate of Al Qa’ida since shortly after its founding.

 Biggest Winners: The Somalian Government

Biggest Losers: Persons living in areas under Al Shabaab control

  Boko Haraam and Nigeria

Similar to al Shabaab, Boko Haram also seeks to establish an Islamic government in its respective location. Originally a problem in Northern Nigeria, the salfi/wahabi organization also operates in Cameroon, Chad, and Niger. Unlike al Shabaab, Boko Haram has declared for the Islamic State, though not without some internal friction.

Most famous in recent years for the capture and hostage taking of the Chibok School Girls, the group has killed thousands and displaced millions since its inception in the early 2000’s. Though several politicians have claimed Boko Haram to be defeated, continual skirmishes with militaries from Nigeria, Chad, Cameroon, and Niger would indicate otherwise.

 Biggest Winners: Nigerian Government

Biggest losers: Persons living in areas still controlled by Boko Haram

  Kenya

Kenya has had its own run ins with Al Shabaab, but the most concerning security matter would be the results of its elections. The previous vote for the presidential office was held on 8 August 2017 and subsequently annulled by the Supreme Court, which labeled the vote “neither transparent or verifiable.” The incumbent, Kenyatta, won the majority and regarded the annulment as a judicial coup.

The Kenyan Director of Public Prosecutions has requested an investigation of the electoral commission. In the meanwhile, there have been several protests regarding the results, the commission, and the President and there will be several more before the vote is held again on 26 October 2017. There is international concern about possible political violence, especially since over a thousand people died in the violence surrounding the 2007 elections.

 Biggest Winners: Opposition leader Odinga

Biggest Losers: Kenyans

  Cameroon independence

A product of colonization, Cameroon is a country with extremely separate English and French speaking people. So much so that the English portions believe they are being forced out of policy making positions and being treated like second-class citizens. The English speakers have long called for equality, but recently the tone has changed to that of independence. Cameroon’s Government has not taken kindly to this development and have cracked down on the seperatists.

The leader of the English opposition has claimed that at least 30 people have died in clashes. On 1 October 2017, Cameroon’s security forces opened fire on demonstrators, killing 8 and wounding several more. In the wake of the incident, the government has shut down the internet in the English speaking areas of the nation.

 Biggest Winners: TBD

Biggest Losers: The English speaking Minority

Update to Kurdish Independence

A resounding “Yes” vote has drawn rebukes from the Iraqi, Turkish, and Iranian governments- strange bedfellows united by their troubles with Kurds within their borders. Kurdish leadership has stipulated that the vote signals that they could start negotiations, though it is unlikely anyone in the Iraqi government would be willing to negotiate with them.

Update to Catalan Independence

Of those who were able to vote, the majority voted in favour of independence. Spanish national police shut down several voting sites, clashing with voters and protesters. By the end, several hundred people were injured, though the number also includes those who suffer non-violent injuries such as anxiety attacks. The Catalonian leadership have made clear they do not want a violent or sudden separation from Spain and want to begin meaningful dialogue. The Spanish Government continues to regard the vote as illegal and may take away Catalonia’s autonomy.

 Update to DPRK

The POTUS made light of The Secretary of State’s attempts to reach a diplomatic solution with the DPRK.

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NOSHITSUM 25 September, 2017

Myanmar and the Rohingya During August 2017, the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA) conducted attacks on several police posts resulting in the deaths of 12 people. Myanmar’s government responded by sending its armed forces into the area known as Rakhine, where the bulk of the Rohingya minority live, to suppress and defeat ARSA. Since the operation began, an estimated 400,000 Rohingya have fled to Bangladesh. The refugees have cited heavy handed tactics and persecution by Myanmar’s armed forces, including the burning of their villages. Myanmar’s government has denied such reports, blaming ARSA for the burned villages. There are also reports saying Myanmar is placing additional landmines along their border with Bangladesh to prevent the refugees from returning. The face of the government and de facto national leader, Nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi has faced a great deal of criticism for not censuring the armed forces. While very little has been independently confirmed, whatever has happened was clearly enough to cause hundreds of thousands to flee. It would also be important to note that Myanmar’s government has restricted the flow of information and people allowed in and out of Rakhine. Suu Kyi claims there have been no clearing operations since 5 September 2017. Key points of information for context: Rohingya are a Muslim minority in primarily Buddhist Myanmar, without full citizenship rights. ARSA bills itself as an ethno-nationalist movement, despite being comprised of Muslims. They claim to be seeking fair rights and representation for their people. Wahabi or salafi Islamic extremist groups typically fight against “western interference” in the middle east or to establish sharia based states or governments. Think Basque Separatists rather than ISIS. Myanmar officially refers to Rohingya as Bangladeshi Muslims, which gives some insight as to why they aren’t afforded full rights. Biggest Winners: ARSA, heavy handed tactics by Myanmar’s government (perceived or actual) will have driven up popular support for the terrorist organization among its Rohingya constituency. Biggest Losers: The Rohingya people. DPRK/North Korea/”Best” Korea and the rest of the world sort of The DPRK’s consistency concerning threats of doom and teaching the US a lesson have featured significantly on pretty much all major news channels about every other week for the past month. They were just as demented during the previous regime, don’t kid yourself. The difference is the current U.S. head honcho has seen fit to engage in an international shittalking competition. Most recently, the POTUS called out Kim Jong UN (KJU from here on) during a speech at the UN, referring to KJU as “rocket man” and calling him suicidal. KJU has responded, calling the POTUS a “Dotard” (basically means either old and dumb or old and senile) and an insane warmonger. Now your key take away here is KJU and his DPRK portraying the PUTUS and US as instigators to validate his nuclear ambitions. “I need Nukes so that I can have the relationship that Russia has with the US” more or less. KJU says he needs that specter of mutually assured destruction to ensure the survival and prosperity of the DPRK. KJU has also threatened an H-Bomb test in the pacific, the method of delivery and veracity of the threat are uncertain at this time. Everything thus far has been based on reporting, news, actual information, etc. rephrased for brevity and clarity. And now my opinion and the answer to everyone’s favourite question: “are we going to war with North Korea?” No, we are not. At least not until we get open or under the table approval from China. Yeah sure, if the DPRK wasn’t a Chinese sock puppet, we’d probably have iced the Kim dynasty a couple of decades ago. Fact of the matter (read “my opinion”) is China uses the DPRK and its antics to further its strategic goals the pacific and, at a slight stretch, the world. How many of have heard of what the Chinese are doing in the South China Sea? What about their most recent depredations against their wayward Taiwanese cousins? You don’t because there’s a crazy asshole in DPRK threatening calamity on a biweekly basis. Oh don’t get me wrong the articles and reports are there for those who want to look, but they don’t make the front page. Besides the obvious benefit of being a buffer between the Chinese mainland and a Major US ally, the DPRK makes a handy distraction. On the global scale it also ties up a huge amount of US defense resources. If the US spends money on the KJU problem, every dollar goes down in the Chinese win book. Same can be said for non-liquid defense assets. For the price of occasional verbal harassment and the karma of letting a nation’s worth of people suffer under KJU’s oppressive regime, China gets to better secure its national defenses and further its strategic goals in the Pacific. Biggest Winners: China, KJU Biggest Losers: The Korean people, USA, ROK, and anyone with territory in the South China Sea ISIS/ISIL/IS vs the world The Islamic State is getting its ass kicked in pretty much every location. Raqqa, Syria is almost entirely taken back by US backed militias. The Syrian armed forces and their Russian backers have beaten ISIS back towards the Iraqi border. In Iraq an unlikely combination of every kind of Iraqi that usually hate each other with coalition support have pushed ISIS toward the Syrian Border and isolated the IS stronghold of Hawijia after taking back Mosul and Tal Afar. Lona-Actor/Individual Cell attacks in the west won’t necessarily mirror the success or failure of ISIS on the whole, as a lot of these plots appear to be either independent or capable of independence. Operatives could be from the IS, or just some randos with keys to a truck. The real question at this point is how these disparate groups are going to interact when the common enemy is defeated. The Syrian Government and its Russian backers will be free to deal with the US backed groups. The Kurds are pushing for independence. The Iraqi Government isn’t so hot about that idea. Biggest Winners: Everyone fighting ISIS (for now) Biggest Losers: ISIS, ISIS captives Catalan and the rest of Spain The Catalonians are a prosperous people in a prosperous like-named state in Northern Spain. Given their wealth and success, they feel like Spain as a whole is dragging them down and taking their money to use in the rest nation. Catalonians have their own unique ethnic identity and culture, which definitely plays a part in their decision to hold a vote on seeking independence. The national government has responded by declaring the vote illegal, arresting state officials, and confiscating voting apparel. There have been several, largely peaceful, demonstrations by Catalonians. The Government of Spain is walking a fine line, trying to avoid heavy handed measure. There are definitely a lot of ways this could become violent very quickly. Biggest Winners: TBD Biggest Losers: Spain either way I’ll hit Africa, gulf states, and any developing conflicts next Monday. Feel free to provide comments, concerns, or insults.