optimiticsolarpunk

[optimiticsolarpunk]

How We Saved Ourselves

This is a short story I wrote in June 2024 about what I see as a potential future for how humans solve the climate crisis:

In 2022, the Inflation Reduction Act barely passed in Congress in the United States. The IRA was the name given to the biggest climate bill the United States had ever dreamed of passing. It was a miracle bill in some ways, one that a year or two earlier, climate activists wouldn't have dreamed would actually pass.

No Republicans supported it, so the Democrats needed every single member to vote for it in the Senate, or it was dead. Joe Manchin, the Democrat from West Virginia almost didn't vote for it, which would have killed the bill. "It's a miracle I'm even here," he would say, for being a Democrat from a deeply Republican state. In a way it sort of was a miracle, but he was there and they needed his vote. After lots of haggling, and periods when he said he wouldn't vote for it, then he would, now he won't again, Manchin came around, and the deal was done. It was all very dramatic (don't say it's dramatic...show how it's dramatic.  If you show it, overtly stating it is unnecessary).

The bill was massive, and was designed to attract billions, even trillions of dollars of private capital, or money from companies, to solve the climate crisis and save the world. They knew that the bill by itself wouldn't actually save the world, but the idea was to start the momentum, and prove to businesses that investing in climate solutions was where the markets were headed, so it would be a smart investment for them. There was a lot of money to be made saving the world, and no one wanted to miss out on it. And why not, you get to be a hero and make money, what's not to love?

By 2024, it was working, and billions of dollars started flowing into climate solutions. Massive solar projects went up. Giant offshore wind farms were under construction, pumping power to millions of homes on the densely populated East Coast.

In 2026, troves of money flowed into startup companies with big ideas for how to capture carbon, build an electrical vehicle transportation system, convert our heating and cooling to electricity and generate all this electricity without releasing carbon.

There were haters. Change is hard. "What if we don't like looking at the solar panels or wind turbines?" they would ask themselves. But as the first projects finished, they would look around and say "Well, this isn't so bad. And it's pumped a lot of money into our town and made lots of jobs." Early technology can take time to mature, so the electric alternatives were not always up to par with their fossil fuel cousins. But humans are incredible engineers, and technology improved so fast that the fossil fuel legacy tech was quickly left in the dust.

Some oil and gas companies even got in on the fun. They would think, "Well we are just energy companies. If the future energy of society is solar and wind, we'll do that too." They built massive renewable energy projects all over the world. They also got lots of tax breaks for these projects, so it was easier to get the shareholders' support. But of course, not all of them were so excited about it.

Some oil and gas companies didn't want to loose the record profits they were making from selling oil and gas. They wanted to stop renewable energy as quickly as possible, and keep fossil fuels as the dominant currency of the world economy. So they started a hidden campaign to fund what were made to look like grass roots campaigns of voters rallying against renewable energy projects. These campaigns could be very successful - at one point they had even convinced a growing audience that wind farms were killing whales. It was hard to disprove, but eventually the scientists showed enough data that the people came around. Solar was a little harder to attack, but you could always try to convince people they were ugly.

A leading presidential candidate even promised oil executives that if they donated $1 billion to his campaign, he would undo all the climate laws, ensuring the dominance of oil and gas for the foreseeable future.

The stages were set for a fierce battle. Oil and gas companies convinced a huge swath of the population that the looming climate crisis was confusing enough that we shouldn't make any drastic changes. On the other side, the data continued to pile up painting a clearer and clearer picture of the existential threat to humanity. Scientists pushed the population to make the big changes that were necessary to survive. A formidable percentage of humans looked at the data and joined the scientists' group to push through solutions to the climate crisis. The war for the future of humanity was raging. On one side: the oil and gas companies and their supporters. On the other side: the scientists and their supporters.

For years, the oil companies and their supporters were winning easily. There was just too much money coming in, and they bought victory anywhere they could. Politicians were a major lifeline - without laws like the IRA, private companies would not be willing to take on all the risks of the energy transition by themselves. In some cases, with enough money, you could even get politicians to make laws that helped prevent the energy transition, such as blocking renewable energy projects.

To counter this, scientists continued publishing the data they were gathering that showed the horrible destruction that would come if humans didn't change course. Some of the people on the side of the oil companies decided it wouldn't be so bad if some legislation was passed that helped clean up the air and water. "Why not?" they would ask themselves.

Scientists used their data to determine that humanity had until 2050 to stop adding ANY more greenhouse gases. The world had to be carbon neutral.

Storms, wildfires and droughts raged with increasing destruction across the globe. Millions of people died. Scientists tried hard to keep their predictions realistic and moderate, so they would be less susceptible to attacks on their data and predictions from the opposing side. This meant, however, that in many cases the destruction was actually worse than they predicted.

The world had three options: One was to continue burning fossil fuels for energy and end in a world of suffering and destruction. The second was to convince everyone to give up electricity, cars, and modern life. The third option was to build an enormous number of renewable energy projects around the world. Option one, continuing with fossil fuels, didn't actually solve the problem. And not many people wanted to give up modern life. So renewable energy it was.

In 2015, at a huge gathering in Paris, the world had set goals for how to solve the climate crisis, based on the scientists' data. The Paris Accord, as it would be called, set goals to build an increasing number of renewable energy projects, to replace the fossil fuel power plants that were spewing carbon into the atmosphere, causing the climate crisis. Scientist said that if humans around the world could follow these goals, by 2050 we could avoid the most catastrophic destruction.

In 2027, the world was far behind the goals. That's not to say there wasn't progress. Bills similar to the IRA began passing in countries around the world. Renewable energy technology got better, more efficient and cheaper. Electric cars became cheaper than gas cars; better and faster too.

One reason for the slow progress was that many of the people on the side of scientists began to feel like it was hopeless. There wasn't enough progress, and why were the oil companies still winning? Without the fire of optimism and inspiration, it was hard to get motivated to help.

And the oil companies were as powerful as ever. They could control the price of oil and gas by constraining their production, so they could drive the price up anytime they wanted. This led to record profits.

By 2029, the destruction had gotten worse, but it was mostly in the global south and Americans didn't really care that much about it. The destruction increased in the US too, but the oil company team explained it away as just another bad storm; nothing new. Some items had gotten really expensive, like coffee and chocolate, because of droughts in other parts of the world. But usually the current president was blamed.

There was hope. The number of renewable energy projects began to grow exponentially every year.

Engineers invented floating wind turbines, which meant we didn't run out of space for these projects, you could just float them further out to sea. Huge subsea cables brought this power back to land to distribute it deeper and deeper in land.

By 2030, a huge number of offshore wind farms far out in the Atlantic and Pacific provided enough power for every coastal state and more. During the most windy parts of the day, these wind farms produced more power than could actually be used. Advances in battery and storage meant this extra power charged giant energy storage facilities, giant batteries from which energy would be released when the wind died down.

Nuclear energy also made a comeback. People liked nuclear energy because it didn't release carbon and was not intermittent. The power was always there whether or not the sun was shining or the wind was blowing. The plateau in nuclear power plants that happened toward the end of the 20th century gave way to a big increase in small modular reactors, a fourth generation nuclear technology that allowed for smaller and much safer reactors. These were cheap and easy to build, eliminating many of the negative aspects of the first generations of nuclear power plants. The early nuclear plants from the 20th century didn't have safe technology and there were enough catastrophes that held the power source at bay until these safer technologies emerged.

Inland, massive solar farms were built in the deserts and onshore wind farms on the plains. Renewable energy projects generated enormous amounts of electricity. Giant energy highways carried electricity from renewable energy projects along cables to load centers all over the country. Fossil fuels became less important.

The companies building these projects became very rich. Oil companies noticed. More and more oil companies defected to the side of the scientists, deciding to become part of the solution instead of the problem. The money they made helped with the decision. They shut down their oil operations and began building renewable energy projects instead.

At first the team with the scientists were suspicious of these defectors from the opposing team. After all, they had been the ones causing this massive problem, why should they be forgiven so quickly? Shouldn't they all be put in jail, or worse?

But these ex-oil companies worked hard to prove that they were serious about becoming part of the solution. Each oil field they closed had a real positive impact on saving humanity. Eventually, the scientist team came around and accepted them. These companies had the power and money and knowhow to be valuable team members.

The 2050 deadline to stop emitting greenhouse gases loomed. The science had become very clear that the situation was dire. The destruction that raged around the world made their research more visceral.

By 2040, the team of oil companies was hemorrhaging members. Most employees wanted to be part of an inspiring future. Executives of any company that hadn't switched sides and had deliberately delayed progress on the climate crisis were being jailed in some parts of the world. Protests had become so effective that these individuals often could not appear in public. Boycotts and bans on anyone investing with these oil companies made life very difficult. Profits became thinner and thinner, life became harder and harder.

Life on the other team, with the scientists, was getting sweeter and sweeter. Renewable energy had become so ubiquitous that for most people it was essentially free. You could ride electric transportation as much as you wanted and get anywhere you wanted, pollution free. Cities had been transformed into green spaces with parks, bike lanes and playgrounds. No one paid to heat or cool their houses - technology made sure it was done efficiently. On nice days, you could program your house to automatically turn off the air conditioning and open the windows.

In 2045, a consortium of the last remaining oil companies in the world consolidated all it's members into one giant oil company, called United Petroleum. They entered a siege mentality to hold strong with oil. Oil was not the only product in which the company was invested, they had found plenty of profits mining minerals, many of which were used in renewable energy projects. They also built carbon capture projects, which had become very popular and profitable and genuinely contributed to reducing the amount of carbon in the atmosphere.

In early 2048 the board of United Petroleum elected a young new CEO named Nancey Lopez; an ambition upstart that had opposed the siege mentality. Within her first six months, she implemented sweeping changes, not all of them popular among the employees. Then, on June 8, 2049 she made a major speech to the entire company. She announced that United Petroleum was shutting down it's last oil fields. They would no longer be selling fossil fuel-based products. Instead, they were shifting their remaining resources into minerals, carbon capture and emerging climate tech. The name was being changed from United Petroleum to United Energy.

Ms. Lopez had worried about the employees' reaction at the announcement - would they revolt and call for her ouster? Instead, the moment she made the announcement, the crowd burst into cheers. It had been hard for these employees to be on the losing team, selling a product everyone hated. Now they were entering an exciting new phase of the company. Maybe they would even be cool again, coming up with innovations that would make life better for people.

The news swept the world rapidly. Headlines read: Last Oil Field to be Shuttered and World Enters New Post-Oil Era. The news was greeted with jubilation from every corner of the globe. The company that had been a piryah since it's inception became an inspiring symbol of humanity's ability to adapt and change. Ms. Cole's status skyrocketed and she traveled the world giving speeches.

With no fossil fuels to burn, emissions of greenhouse gases disappeared. Humans had saved themselves at the very last minute. For decades, scientists had been saying that emissions would need to cease by 2050. Humans had done it without a moment to spare. In July 2049, a month after the big announcement from Ms. Cole, the world began preparing for a worldwide celebration for January 1, 2050.  Called World Day, it became the first official international holiday observed annually across the globe.

But the change didn't stop there. For so many years, humans had dumped greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, and a huge amount had accumulated. Now it had to be cleaned up. The carbon capture projects that had been built leading up to 2050 helped do that, and more were built to help speed up the process.

A global movement to bring green vegetation to cities around the world blossomed. These cities taught each other best practices, and soon native plants and trees proliferated in cities and towns from Johannesburg to Beijing, from Guatelajera to Riyad. Growing healthy food in community gardens became a fashionable practice.

The years of work to solve the climate crisis had taught humans other valuable skills as well. Advanced technology and artificial intelligence made most work optional, so building community became a central theme for humans around the world.

The renewable energy projects that powered all this advanced technology continued to pump out power day after day. The technology had become so advanced that robots could repair and replace anything when it broke or wore out.

Some people found a lot of purpose developing even more advanced technology that could help species be healthier, happier and to thrive. They found new ways to help bring the Earth to a healthy harmony with nature. The ocean began to team with life, nursed back to a thriving ecosystem. Forests full of animals existed within major cities.

On World Day in 2200, a documentary was released that took the world by storm. Titled Saving Ourselves, it told the dramatic story of humans in the 21st century who had taken the Earth to the brink of destruction, only to save it at the last minute. Everyone had learned the story in school, but there was something about how the story was told in the documentary that made it hard to look away. While no one was alive who remembered the actual events leading up to 2050, the shocking drama of the story captivated the world. After the movie, communities would gather and celebrate the wonderful world they had created.

[optimiticsolarpunk]

Solarpunk Realism

I think one of the biggest hurdles to solving the climate crisis is that people have trouble imagining a world in which it's been solved. Many people think of the future as dystopian - but it doesn't have to be. We can solve the climate crisis - we just have to collectively start doing it.

I love the art movement called solarpunk. It's a sub-genre of cyberpunk, but where cyberpunk envisions a dystopian future, solarpunk envisions a utopian future. Both have futuristic technology mixed with old school humanity. (Another offshoot of cyberpunk is steampunk, mainly involving Victorian-era steam-powered technology in an alternate past.)

I think an optimistic vision for the future is a critical missing piece to actually solving the climate crisis and other big problems. We can't build a better world until we imagine it. That's what caught my attention with solarpunk; it's a genre of art and creativity that could play a profound role in helping save humanity.

I've been thinking about what a genre of art would look like that helps tell this positive message. At first I thought of calling it optimistic futurism. But as I thought through the idea, I kept getting drawn to solarpunk.

The first mention of the term solarpunk was in an anonymous 2008 blog post called From Steampunk to Solarpunk. In 2014, the artist Olivia Louise posted some conceptual solarpunk art on Tumblr. The next week, Adam Flynn wrote Solarpunk: Notes toward a manifesto. Based on this document and postings on solarpunks.net, in 2019 A Solarpunk Manifesto was posted on the blog of a regenerative design consulting firm.

For many years, I’ve worked on projects and art to help bring an optimistic perspective to the future. Now I’ve found a name for this kind of creativity: solarpunk. I worked mostly in the form of short documentaries and videos.

In early 2021 I started developing a potential TV show that looks at the big question: How do humans solve the climate crisis? I wanted to look at what we are doing and what more we need to do to save ourselves. I call the show Saving Ourselves. It has started out as a web videos series as I continue to try to develop the TV show on a bigger scale. I also started talking to folks building the massive offshore wind farms and other renewable energy projects around the world. We'll need to build thousands of these projects - so I start producing videos about them.

I did this because I think helping people envision a world in which the climate crisis solved is a critical piece to making happen. And what better way to do this than with a TV show?

I'm most interested in how these visions of the future can impact our present: How can we help communicate a positive message that inspires people to build this better world now? Call it solarpunk realism.

I want to look at the technologies we have now and in the near future and comment on ways I think the most likely scenarios will play out to solve big problems like the climate crisis. This is where the art form can have a major positive impact on our world and our future.

Art that helps us imagine a realistic vision of what a better world would look like.

My hope is that when we are able to see this better world, the next step will be to go out and build it.

Solarpunk themes include renewable energy, well-designed cities and community. It envisions advanced technology to help us get back to a more natural world - where nature is nurtured by technology.

Community thrives, people work and play together in harmony. We've learned how to let the Earth provide us with everything we need - and we no longer harm the Earth in the process - we feed and nurture it. A healthy Earth means healthy species and a healthy humanity.

I think solarpunk is best when technology is used less in some spaces - like less social media. We learn to be healthier with our use of technology to help humanity, and the World, thrive.