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[pleaserelaxfc]

Alright, real quick before the first game of the NWSL season kicks off, a few predictions.

First, here's how I think things are ultimately going to shake out at the end of the season:

Reign - after winning the Shield last year, the Reign have not lost many of their key players, and have added or re-integrated a few new ones, including Elyse Bennett and Emily Sonnett. Barring any injuries or extended absences during the regular season for national team duties, I think they're probably in a good position to repeat.

Thorns - just like the Reign, the Thorns did not lose many key players after winning the Championship game. They still have Sophia Smith, who will undoubtedly be scoring a ton of goals, and Crystal Dunn will be back on the field for them as well. I'm giving the nod to the Reign for the Shield again only because I think they are more consistent, and because I think they're better structured to survive any losses to international breaks.

Current - the Current dramatically exceded expectations last season, and have made some serious moves in the offseason, but I think they will still have a few flukey moments this season (especially given their first week's injury report). They'll do well, but won't quite make it into the top two.

Wave - much like the Thorns and the Reign, the Wave did well last season, and have kept their roster mostly intact. They did lose Carly Telford, one of the best backup goalkeepers in the league, to retirement, and I think they'll struggle a bit in any games where Kailen Sheridan is out. They also have a lot of young talent, but if Alex Morgan and/or Taylor Kornieck has a drop-off from last year, it will be difficult for them to do much better than they did last year.

Dash - Diana Ordoñez, Ebony Salmon, Maria Sánchez. With that forward line, the Dash will do better than they did last season, but I'm not sure that they have the players behind them to make it comfortably into the top four.

Gotham - With the return of Allie Long and the additions of Lynn Williams and Yazmeen Ryan, as well as goalkeeper Abby Smith, I think they will have a much better season than they did last year. However, despite having apparently every outside back in the league, I'm still not convinced by their defense, especially after losing Estelle Johnson, so I think they'll just scrape their way into the first round of the playoffs.

Spirit - The Spirit can't do worse than they did last year, right? (They absolutely can). I have a lot of questions about why they are structuring their defense they way they are, but based on everything we've heard from them, I think they're prepared to come into the season fighting. I think they will have a slow start, but ultimately come together to make a playoff push, although they won't quite make it in.

Angel City - This is really dependent on how soon Christen Press or Syd Leroux can get back on the field - even if they were both ready to go this week, I wouldn't have Angel City too high, but probably in the playoffs. However, as it is, they don't seem to have made too many moves to strengthen their midfield, which was a big issue for them last year, and without players who can make something out of nothing, I don't think they can do better than they did last year.

Racing - They've made a lot of solid signings in the offseason, but it never seemed like a lack of talent was their issue so much as team cohesion and tactics. With Carson Pickett and Uchenna Kanu, they could be a really exciting team, but I'll believe it when I see it.

Red Stars - Their entire midfield is new to the team, if not the league. Mallory Swanson (much like Christen Press) can often make something out of nothing, but I don't think it will be enough this season.

Pride - Seriously, where are all of the NWSL's midfielders?? (Kansas City, apparently). Marta is back, Messiah Bright is going to light things up, as will Ally Watt, but they are really lacking standout players in any other line.

Courage - This feels unlikely, given how the Courage seem to pull a rabbit out of a hat literally every season, but maybe this is the one where karma catches up to them. They lost so many of their goal scorers, and while they've brought a few new forwards in, many of them are young or new to the league, and I think it will take too long to develop the cohesion and feel for the system.

Predictions for this week's games:

Courage vs. Current: 1 - 2

Wave vs. Red Stars: 1 - 1

Spirit vs. Reign: 1 - 2

Thorns vs. Pride: 3 - 1

Dash vs. Racing: 2 - 2

Angel City vs. Gotham: 2 - 2

Basically, I think it's going to be a very exciting opening week - no shutouts! Go watch!

[pleaserelaxfc]

NWSL: International Absences

So, with the NWSL picking up with three games per team between now and the likely return of most of its international players, I thought I would do a rundown of how each team will be affected, starting with the teams least affected and moving towards those most affected. 

First, a quick overview of how many players each team is missing - number in parentheses is how many of them have played more than 50% of the club's minutes this season: 

OL Reign:  8 (4)

Washington Spirit:  7 (5)

Houston Dash:  7 (5)

Portland Thorns:  6 (6)

San Diego Wave:  5 (5)

North Carolina Courage:  5 (4)

NJ/NY Gotham:  4 (4)

Racing Louisville:  4 (1)

Chicago Red Stars:  3 (2)

Angel City:  2 (1)

Kansas City Current:  2 (1)

Orlando Pride:  1 (1)

In general, I think the number of high-minute players absent from a team is a pretty good (but not perfect) proxy for how much a team will be affected in the international window, so in this post, I'm going to start with the Orlando Pride, the Kansas City Current, Racing Louisville, and Angel City.  These four teams are each going to be missing one or two starters - often important players for the team as a unit, but with only one or two players out, the international window won't affect them much more than the normal course of short-term injuries already does.

Orlando Pride

Player(s) out:  Gunny Jonsdottir (MF)

Jonsdottir is a pretty key piece for Orlando, both in terms of play and leadership.  She is often the best performer in a fairly shaky midfield, where she can play either in a more attacking or a more defensive role, and she has even been tasked with playing as an outside back in a couple of recent games.  However, the Pride's problems in the upcoming games are going to come down to player management and weaknesses throughout the field, rather than just her individual availability.  Erika Tymrak was very good for the Pride last season but has gotten less than 90 minutes this season; either she or Mikayla Cluff, who didn't start either of the Pride's last two games with a mild foot injury, could fill in comfortably in Jonsdottir's usual attacking midfield position. 

Not on international duty but absent nonetheless is Sydney Leroux, who was just traded to Angel City.  She and Darian Jenkins were mainstays in the Pride's front line all season, and for good reason - although Jenkins is a standout player and will surely get some good goals, Leroux's absence will significantly limit the Pride's ability to win games outright.

Kansas City Current

Player(s) out:  Desiree Scott (MF); Sydney Schneider (GK)

Scott is the bigger loss here, having the second-highest number of minutes of all Current players, while Schneider has not yet made an appearance for the team.  Scott will be a loss in the defensive midfield, but rookie Alex Loera has gotten a few minutes in defensive midfield earlier in the season alongside her, and the Current also have the enormous blessing of Kristen Edmonds, who can play almost any position.  While Loera hasn't necessarily appeared as a sole number 6 in the NWSL, it seems that the Current have been working on improving the defensive capabilities of several of their other midfielders, including Victoria Pickett and Chardonnay Curran, so if she does start there, the other midfielders could pick up some of the slack as well.  With Loera and Edmonds both starting as center backs in recent games, either would need to be replaced there - but there is no lack of capable defenders on the Current's bench, including Taylor Leach, the newly-traded Addisyn Merrick, and (once she returns from injury) Jenna Winebrenner.

Angel City

Player(s) out:  Vanessa Gilles (CB), Allyson Swaby (DF)

Gilles seemed to be holding Angel City's defense together single-handedly for large portions of the Challenge Cup, and while their defensive line has become stronger the more they have played together, she is probably still the strongest player on their back line and her absence will be notable.  For their first game, Madison Hammond, who had started several Challenge Cup games before Megan Reid returned from injury, will be out under COVID protocol, so I would expect to see Paige Nielsen alongside Reid - Nielsen hasn't gotten many minutes following her own off-season health issues, but was a pretty strong player with Washington last season, so while there will be a drop in quality, I don't think it will be too significant. 

More concerning for Angel City is their rapidly-shrinking depth all over the field, including in defense - in addition to Gilles and Swaby on international duty and Hammond under COVID protocol, they are still missing Jasmyne Spencer, Sarah Gorden, and M.A. Vignola to injury.  Tyler Lussi has been performing at outside back, but she is already a converted forward in that position (and given the injuries in more attacking roles, might be better utilized there for the moment), and Ali Riley was kept out of the New Zealand gameday squad during their June games due to an injury picked up in training - I'm not entirely sure how Angel City would respond if anyone else in their defense weren't able to play.  Their other field positions aren't doing much better, although not due to international absences, with Christen Press suffering a season-ending ACL tear, Simone Charley out with an achilles injury, and Cari Roccaro also out under COVID protocol.

Racing Louisville

Player(s) out:  Emily Fox (LB), Nadia Nadim (FW/AM), Rebecca Holloway (LB), Satara Murray (DF)

Fox is pretty clearly the biggest loss here, having been a standout player for Racing through the season and a half she's been in the NWSL, but Nadim has been adding some much-needed energy off the bench that will also be missed, particularly having traded away Cece Kizer and Ebony Salmon.   While Holloway would have been the natural replacement for Fox, it seems that Racing have been preparing for their combined absences by repurposing Lauren Milliet as an outside back, and she hasn't done poorly there, either.  Milliet has been starting on the front line, and recent starting lineups have had her there alongside Alex Chidiac and Savannah DeMelo, but Racing has plenty of young talent on the forward line that could fill her absence on the wing, including Emina Ekic, Kristen Davis, and Sh'nia Gordon - those three may also be relied on more heavily off the bench while Nadim is out.

[pleaserelaxfc]

NWSL Thoughts: Week 5

This week's games

Pride vs. Spirit (7:00 Fri., CBS Sports Network)

Red Stars vs. Thorns (8:00 Sat., Twitch)

Reign vs. Wave (3:00 Sun., Paramount+)

Dash vs. Courage (7:00 Sun., Paramount+)

Angel City vs. Gotham (8:00 Sun., Paramount+)

Current vs. Racing (3:00 Mon., Paramount+)

Standings

Wave (12 pts)

Angel City (9 pts)

Racing (8 pts)

Dash (7 pts, 4 played)

Pride (7 pts, 5 played)

Red Stars (6 pts, 3 played)

Reign (6 pts, 5 played)

Thorns (5 pts, +1 goal difference)

Spirit (5 pts, 0 goal difference)

Gotham (3 pts)

Current (1 pt)

Courage (0 pts)

Predictions/Why you should watch

If you're only watching one game this weekend, I think it should be the Reign vs the Wave - the Reign look like they have finally recovered from the Challenge Cup and are re-approaching that form, while the Wave have been on an unexpected hot streak throughout the early season. Besides that one, I would expect the next best game to be Red Stars vs Thorns - Mal Pugh seems ready to mount a golden boot campaign despite only having 45 regular season minutes, while Sophia Smith is ready to carry the Thorns herself, despite the fact that they're a pretty good team already.

Pride-Spirit: Because the Pride have the highest goals against so far in the regular season, as well as one of the higher goals for - so seems reasonable that there could be a bunch of goals in this one, too.

Prediction: Spirit win, 3-1

Red Stars-Thorns: Because Mal Pugh is BACK and you want to see the fireworks when her Red Stars go up against Sophia Smith's Thorns.

Prediction: Draw, 2-2

Reign-Wave: Because you want to know just how real the Wave's hot streak is, and with the Reign finally back to scoring form, this might be one of their biggest tests.

Prediction: Draw, 1-1

Dash-Courage: Because you want to know if the Courage will ever rebound from their early-season woes against expected bottom-of-the-table teams.

Prediction: Dash win, 2-1.

Angel City-Gotham: Because you want to know if Gotham will ever be able to recover from their early-season woes, or if Angel City will be able to pull out another win.

Prediction: Gotham wins, 2-0 - I feel like Angel City have pulled out amazing results against top teams and then struggled against not-as-good teams so I'm going with the "upset" here because I love the chaos.

Current-Racing: Because you want to know if the Current can live up to their Challenge Cup potential, and if they're ever going to do that, this would be the game.

Prediction: Current win, 2-0.

[pleaserelaxfc]

NWSL Thoughts: Week 4

We're still in the early part of the season, so at this point things are very much still settling themselves down, particularly while some teams have played twice as many games as others. As we approach the end of the first quarter of the season (five teams will have played a quarter of their games by the end of next weekend), the standings start to seem more reliable, but for now, most teams are still getting into the swing of things for the regular season, and this weekend's six games should be interesting.

This week's games

Thorns vs. Dash (6:00 Sat., Twitch)

Angel City vs. Current (10:30 Sat., Twitch)

Courage vs. Wave (2:00 Sun., Paramount+)

Gotham vs. Racing (5:00 Sun., Paramount+)

Reign vs. Spirit (6:00 Sun., Paramount+)

Pride vs. Red Stars (7:00 Sun., Paramount+)

Standings

Wave (9 pts)

Pride (7 pts)

Angel City (6 pts)

Thorns (5 pts, 3 played)

Racing (5 pts, 4 played)

Dash (4 pts, 3 played, +1 goal difference)

Spirit (4 pts, 3 played, 0 goal difference)

Red Stars (4 pts, 4 played)

Gotham (3 pts)

Reign (2 pts)

Current (1 pt)

Courage (0 pts)

Predictions/Why you should watch

Thorns-Dash: Because Sophia Smith is on fire, and the Dash's defense isn't.

Prediction: Thorns win, 2-0

Angel City-Current: Because Angel City's results so far have been weird, and you want to know how that's going to play out with the Current.

Prediction: Angel City wins, 3-1

I was probably going to go with a 2-2 draw here, until the injury report for Kansas City came out - in addition to their four long-term injuries, they also have four players out under Covid protocols, including LaBonta and Mace, as well as Izzy Rodriguez (who seems to be the first backup for Mace at left back) and Chardonnay Curran (who has made some solid appearances off the bench in midfield). They already have a smaller roster than most, so this means that they will be starting with sixteen players (including three goalkeepers) plus any short-term signings they are able to make, and I just don't think they have enough depth to pull this off. Bennett and Hamilton should be good to go, so I think they could manage a goal, but I don't think they'll have enough to hold the Angel City attack back for ninety minutes.

Courage-Wave: Because the Courage feel like a strong team, but the Wave look like a strong team.

Prediction: Draw, 1-1

If you're only going to watch one game this weekend, I think this is the one.

Gotham-Racing: Because these teams have met three times in the regular season, and each of them ended in a 1-1 draw (plus a 0-0 draw in last year's Challenge Cup), and you want to know if that streak will continue.

Prediction: Draw, 1-1 - the streak holds.

Reign-Spirit: Because these are two very good teams who both feel overdue for a win.

Prediction: Reign wins, 2-1

In all honesty, I'm a bit hesitant to say "you should watch" at all with this one - the Spirit are clearly already tired, the Reign are (rightly) furious over several missed, incorrect, or close calls that have gone against them recently, and the assigned head referee is among the more lenient of an already lenient refereeing pool, so the possibility of a really rough game seems higher than usual. They are both great teams when they are at their best, but I'm not sure they will be at their best (especially Washington, as much as I hate to say it).

Pride-Red Stars: Because there are so many questions around both of these teams and you want to know what's going to happen next.

Prediction: Draw, 1-1

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So the Courage really just love saying Denise O'Sullivan is unavailable and then immediately playing her, I guess?

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NWSL Thoughts: Week 3.5

This week brings the NWSL's first slate of midweek games for the regular season - six teams will be playing on Wednesday night. The NWSL's rescheduling needs increased this week, after COVID protocols called off Gotham's home opener against the Courage (barely two hours before kickoff) - no word yet on when that will be rescheduled to, but it's also worth noting that the Courage are one of the teams scheduled to play tonight despite still having several players under COVID protocols.

Courage vs. Pride (7:00, Paramount+)

Racing vs. Wave (7:30, Paramount+)

Thorns vs. Spirit (10:00, Paramount+)

Standings

Wave (9 pts)

Angel City (6 pts)

Thorns (4 pts, 2 games played)

Dash (4 pts, 3 played, +1 goal difference)

Pride (4 pts, 3 played, -2 goal difference)

Red Stars (3 pts, 0 goal difference, 3 goals scored)

Spirit (3 pts, 0 goal difference, 2 goals scored)

Gotham (3 pts, -1 goal difference)

Racing (2 pts, 4 goals scored)

Reign (2 pts, 3 goals scored)

Current (1 pt)

Courage (0 pts)

This week's midweek games

Courage vs. Pride (7:00, Paramount+)

Racing vs. Wave (7:30, Paramount+)

Thorns vs. Spirit (10:00, Paramount+)

Predictions/Why you should watch

Courage-Pride: Because it has the potential to give us some views of players who haven't gotten much time so far, or who will be playing in unfamiliar positions. the Courage had a dominant run in the Challenge Cup, but stumbled in their regular season opener against Angel City, and will be missing several players this week due to covid protocols. The Pride have definitely benefited from Syd Leroux's return - after a very poor showing in the Challenge Cup, they earned their first win of the year over Angel City on a Leroux goal, and then drew against the Current, with their first of two goals assisted by Leroux. Although the Pride don't seem to have a fully cohesive system established yet, I think the Courage players who will be unavailable tonight are too important to their system to overcome their absence - particularly Erceg, O'Sullivan, and the potential combined absences of both their starting and first backup goalkeepers in Casey Murphy and Katelyn Rowland. I think the Pride will take this one, 2-0.

Racing-Wave: Because you want to know how long the Wave can keep up their unprecedentedly good start (for an expansion team). Racing already seem to be several levels better this season than they were in their first season in the league, but are still looking for their first win in the regular season. The Wave, after a decent but not great run in the Challenge Cup, have won all three of their games, and generally seemed dominant in play, even putting aside their four-goal win over Gotham. I would love to see Racing pull off what is starting to seem like an upset, but I'm not sure that they will - I'm going with a 3-1 win for the Wave.

Thorns-Spirit: Because these are two very good teams, which both look very different than they did the last time they played each other - in early August of last year, before Kris Ward took over as head coach of the Spirit, and of course also before Rhian Wilkinson took the reins at the Thorns. The Thorns have adjusted their formation, now generally playing in a 3-5-2 with a fairly strong defensive unit, and Sophia Smith has been absolutely burning defenders who try to stop her - in all but one of the games the Thorns have played this season, if the Thorns scored at all, Smith got a goal. Meanwhile, after going on a very long unbeaten streak when Ward came in as head coach last season, the Spirit have lost their last two games and are starting to look a bit tired (understandable - and perhaps unlikely to change in the near future, as they won't have more than five days between games until the mid-June international break). However, they are known for responding well to adversity, and I think after losing to Angel City last weekend, they're going to be fired up - I'm going with a 2-1 win for the Spirit.

[pleaserelaxfc]

NWSL Thoughts: Week 3

With last week's games disrupted by Challenge Cup-induced reschedulings, the NWSL will have its second full weekend of games this week, and despite only being ten games into the regular season, we have already seen some surprise results.

This week's games

Thorns vs. Reign (10:30 Fri., CBS Sports Network)

Pride vs. Current (6:30 Sat., Paramount+)

Gotham vs. Courage (7:00 Sat., Paramount+)

Racing vs. Dash (8:00 Sat., Twitch)

Wave vs. Red Stars (5:00 Sun., Paramount+)

Spirit vs. Angel City (5:00 Sun., Paramount+)

Games to Watch

To see a potential Championship preview: Thorns vs. Reign. Of course, the Reign were the top seed overall in the group stage of the Challenge Cup, and despite some underwhelming results over the last two weeks, they're still expected to make a strong run in the regular season playoffs. The Thorns looked like they were easily going to make it to the Challenge Cup playoffs as well, until the very last game of the group stage, which they lost while missing several players to COVID protocols - despite some massive turnover here, they are also expected to do pretty well in the regular season, and could make just as strong a run in the postseason with Sophia Smith in form and Janine Beckie added to their front line. The Thorns are coming off of what essentially became a rest week, and while the Reign played a lot of games last week, they will probably be coming into this long-term rivalry matchup feeling like they have something to prove, so I would expect this to be a very exciting game.

To gauge where things stand: Pride vs. Current. The Pride did almost unbelievably poorly in the Challenge Cup, and then started off the regular season with a resounding loss to Gotham (their second loss in three games against Gotham this calendar year), but did eke out a win against Angel City last week - with Syd Leroux back from injury, they may be on their way to righting the ship. On the other hand, the Current did well in the Challenge Cup, winning the midwestern region, but then suffered three consecutive defeats across all competitions in the last two weeks. This game could be a good indication of which direction these two teams are heading.

To see a lot of goals (or just something completely different?): Gotham vs. Courage. I don't know who is going to score them, but I think this game is going to have a lot of goals. Gotham won by 3 goals in their first game of the season, and then lost by 4 in their second, and at least 3 goals have been scored overall in every game that the Courage have played in since the international break, so it seems reasonable to think that maybe there will also be a lot of goals here this weekend. However, after I started writing this, the injury report came out and, you know what, it's bad! In addition to the regular types of injuries, Gotham has four players out under COVID protocol, all of whom I would have expected to start (Purce, Dydasco, Harris, and Krieger), and the Courage has seven (Boade, Bowen, Solaun, Pinto, Gray, Rowland, and Carson Pickett), three or four of whom I would have expected to start. So, it's possible that both teams will have very unusual lineups and we will get to see some largely-unknown players in this game.

Predictions:

Thorns vs. Reign: Draw, 2-2

Pride vs. Current: Current wins, 2-1

Gotham vs. Courage: Courage wins, 3-1

Racing vs. Dash: Racing wins, 1-0

Wave vs. Red Stars: Wave wins, 1-0

Spirit vs. Angel City: Spirit wins, 3-0

[pleaserelaxfc]

NWSL Thoughts: Week 1

The NWSL's regular season kicks off tonight, and with the group stage of the Challenge Cup finished, maybe we know a little bit more about how things will shape up for these teams than we might have in previous seasons.

This week's games

Angel City vs. Courage (10:30 Fri., CBS Sports Network)

Thorns vs. Current (6:00 Sat., Twitch)

Red Stars vs. Racing (8:00 Sat., Paramount+)

Spirit vs. Reign (5:00 Sun., Paramount+)

Dash vs. Wave (7:00 Sun., Paramount+)

Pride vs. Gotham (7:00 Sun., Paramount+)

Games to Watch

To see a potential Championship preview: Spirit vs. Reign. The Reign finished the Challenge Cup group stage as the top seed overall and will travel to Washington to face last year's NWSL champions, the Spirit, on Sunday; they will face each other again on Wednesday in the Challenge-Cup semi-final. Although the Spirit just managed to scrape their way into the semi-finals as the best second-place team, they were making steady improvements throughout the group stage, and look poised to have another strong season in 2022. At this point, I would expect both of these teams to make the playoffs, fairly comfortably, and even if they don't, at this stage of the season, this is likely to be one of the most high-quality games on this weekend.

To compare apples and oranges: Thorns vs. Current. Both of these teams did fairly well in their group stage matches, but also didn't necessarily face much in the way of strong opposition. Based on those results, I would probably expect both teams to make the regular season playoffs this year, but this game should be informative in terms of how much of their results to this point were their own quality, and how much was based on their opponents' lack of form.

To see a lot of goals: Angel City vs. Courage. Angel City conceded the most goals of any team in the Challenge Cup, and the Courage tied for the most goals scored. With that combination, I wouldn't be surprised to see a lot of goals scored in this game, primarily by the Courage - but Angel City managed to score a few solid goals of their own (and had a few more just barely denied by some of the best goalkeepers in the league), and the Courage are still missing Casey Murphy and Carson Pickett, both key pieces for their back line.

Predictions:

For this week:

Angel City - Courage: Courage wins, 3-1

Thorns - Current: Current wins, 2-1

Red Stars - Racing: Draw, 1-1

Spirit - Reign: Draw, 2-2

Dash - Wave: Wave wins, 1-0

Pride - Gotham: Gotham wins, 2-0

For the season - playoff teams:

Reign - While some of their success in the Challenge Cup so far could be attributable to the two expansion teams in their geographic group, the Reign do seem to have a very solid lineup with a lot of depth, and while they have really solid players, not many of their forwards seem likely to be called up in the July international windows.

Courage - I really don't want to put them here, but I think they have to be toward the top. On paper, heading into the Challenge Cup they were about 99% defenders, but they came out swinging and won half their games, and drew the other half, even before having all of their players ready to go. I think with Kerolin Nicoli, Diana Ordoñez, and Valerie Gauvin on top of Debinha and the Picketts, their ceiling is going to be just as high as it has always been.

Spirit - They've been on a high for a long time, and look ready to keep performing at that level for now, but I think at some point (possibly during the summer international window, if the eight or nine players that have been getting called up regularly do again), they are going to hit a slump. They'll still be good, and they might repeat as Championship winners even, but I don't think they'll manage to win the shield (besides which, a short spell of bad results could be just what they need to power them into peak form just in time for the playoffs).

Current - The Current have shown that they can pull results out even without some of their new stars, and their ability to grind out those wins will be necessary over the full season. Finishing this high will also be pretty dependent on not losing any new players, but most of their tough matchups are saved for July and August, when other teams may be more likely to have players out at international tournaments, and when (hopefully) Sam Mewis and Hailie Mace have returned from their injuries.

Thorns - I don't think the Thorns will do as well as they did last year, but Sophia Smith has shown an incredible improvement in her game, and I think they have done just enough in the midfield, in terms of developing younger players and getting new players, like Sugita, to cling to a spot in the playoffs this year.

Red Stars - I don't know how they are going to do this, but I think they will. Much like the Courage, what looked like it should have been a very weak roster on paper has shown just how much formation matters, and the Red Stars largely held their own throughout the Challenge Cup, even if they didn't move forward.

For the season - non-playoff teams:

Racing - I think Racing just needs a little longer to click, and then they'll be solid. Probably not solid enough for a spot in the playoffs, but much better than what last season's results would suggest. They're a young team, and a lot of their players are still trying to get their legs under them in the professional game, but they seem to have most of the pieces that they need - Lester and Merrick are already going a long way to solidifying the back line, Howell and Demelo are doing pretty well in the midfield, and with McDonald adding some experience to Ekic, Salmon, Kizer, and Davis in the front, they could stay in contention for much longer this season.

Angel City - Although Angel City had a rocky start in the Challenge Cup, an will likely continue to have some difficulties for the first months of the regular season, I think they'll move up the table later in the season when their long-injured defenders return to the game. It won't be enough for a spot in the playoffs, and they will probably still need to make some roster adjustments between this season and next if they want a shot at making the playoffs then, but they won't have a totally atrocious season on the whole. Also, defenses can't hold Christen Press off forever.

Gotham - With Allie Long likely out for the whole season, they don't really have a defensive midfield - the effects of that showed during the Challenge Cup, and it doesn't seem like it's going to change anytime soon. They have excellent defenders, and excellent attacking players (including Kristie Mewis), but they need at least one or two other midfielders to really up their game if they want to finish in playoff position.

Wave - They were built around their defense, but their defense hasn't been all that convincing, conceding eleven goals across the six games of the Challenge Cup. Added to that their somewhat shallow midfield and potential losses in their forward line for the summer international window, and I don't think they'll be able to pull out the results that they need here.

Dash - The Dash just didn't seem to come together at all during the Challenge Cup. They managed a couple of wins, but they also lost a lot of games that they should have won, and they haven't done much to replace the players that they lost in the off-season. Added to that a potential coaching upheaval, and I don't think the Dash will be able to get the results that they need early in the season to finish high.

Pride - Their roster was already in rebuilding mode, and then they lost Marta. Syd Leroux was also out for the end of the Challenge Cup, and it's unclear when she will return, which leaves Darian Jenkins their most dangerous scoring threat for that period. And Jenkins is a huge threat, to be sure, but without much support around her, she can only carry the team so far. Their midfield also doesn't seem to be gelling just yet, although they do have some good pieces there - if Leroux returns quickly, and the midfield figures themselves out, they could finish higher than this, but I think other teams are good enough already that they would be facing an uphill battle anyway.

[pleaserelaxfc]

NWSL Challenge Cup Thoughts: Final Week

For the last week of the group stage, I'm doing one big(ger) post covering all three groups, given the ways that results in one group could affect the outcomes for the teams in other groups in terms of the best-second-place spot.

Current Standings and Maximum Potential Points, West:

OL Reign: 13 points (16 possible)

Portland Thorns: 10 points (13 possible)

San Diego Wave: 4 points (7 possible)

Angel City FC: 1 point (4 possible)

Current Standings and Maximum Potential Points, Central:

Kansas City Current: 10 points (13 possible)

Chicago Red Stars: 8 points (11 possible)

Racing Louisville: 6 points (9 possible)

Houston Dash: 3 points (6 possible)

Current Standings and Maximum Potential Points, East:

North Carolina Courage: 11 points (14 possible)

Washington Spirit: 9 points (12 possible)

NJ/NY Gotham FC: 5 points (8 possible)

Orlando Pride: 1 point (4 possible)

Games to be played this weekend:

Spirit - Courage (1:00 Sat., CBS/Paramount+)

Gotham - Pride (7:00 Sat., Paramount+)

Wave - Reign (10:00 Sat., Paramount+)

Current - Red Stars (6:00 Sun., Paramount+)

Dash - Racing (7:00 Sun., CBS Sports Network)

Angel City - Thorns (9:00 Sun., Paramount+)

Routes to the Playoffs:

Reign

The Reign were the first team to guarantee themselves a place in the semi-finals with their win last weekend - no team in either the eastern or central divisions can finish in second place with thirteen or more points. While they don't actually need a result this weekend, they can secure themselves the top overall seed with a win, or with a draw combined with a draw or loss for the Courage.

Courage

The Courage are currently at the top of the eastern division, and a win would guarantee them a spot in the playoffs as well as either the first or second overall seed, so they would be able to host their semi-final, assuming their field is available. A draw would also guarantee them a spot in the playoffs, although not the home-field advantage.

A loss would leave them in second place in the division, and their fate would depend on results in the west (but not the midwest, where the second-placed team will end up with no more than ten points). If the Thorns win, the Courage would be out; if the Thorns lose, the Courage would be in; and if the Thorns draw, it would come down to tiebreakers (in this scenario, if the Courage lost by more than one goal, they would be out, but if they lost by one goal exactly, it would come to total goals scored, where the Courage currently have a two-goal advantage over the Thorns, or disciplinary points, where the Thorns currently have the advantage over the Courage).

Current

A win or a draw for the Current guarantees them the top spot in the central division - however, with a draw, they would be guaranteed the third seed overall, and would not host their semi-final.

With a loss, the Current will come in second in the central division, and while they won't quite be eliminated from contention for the top second-place spot, it will be a close call - they would need the the Spirit not to draw, and they would need the Thorns to lose by at least two more goals than the Current do.

Thorns

The west is the only division where the two top teams are not playing against each other this weekend, but the reigning Challenge Cup champions nevertheless still hold their Challenge Cup destiny in their hands - a win will have them at 13 points, guaranteeing them a spot in the semi-finals at least as the best second-place finisher, regardless of the result in the other game in their division. Depending on that other result, the Thorns could still sneak through to win the division as well, and likely a home-field advantage in the playoffs - if they win and the Reign lose, the two would be tied on points, and if either game is by more than a one-goal margin, the Thorns would win on goal differential.

A draw or a loss would guarantee the Thorns second place in the division, and in either case they would still be in contention for the best second-place spot, depending on the results in the other groups. In the event of a draw, the Thorns would get that final berth unless the Courage lose their game by exactly one goal - in which case it would come down to goals scored as the tiebreak between the Courage and the Thorns.

If the Thorns lose, they would need the Courage to win in order to move on. If the Courage lose, they would take the best second-place spot on points and the Thorns would be out; if the Courage draw against the Spirit, the Spirit would be tied with the Thorns on points, but the Spirit would have the goal differential advantage and eliminate the Thorns. Even if the Courage win, the Thorns could still be knocked out if the Current also lose their game, but by a margin at least two goal narrower than the Thorns' loss.

Since the Thorns play the last game of the week (by a couple of hours), they will know exactly what result they need before they take the field.

Spirit

The Spirit need a win to move on to the playoffs as a first-placed team, but a draw still leaves a narrow path to the playoffs as the best second-placed team. A loss would eliminate them.

To make it to the playoffs as the best second-placed team, the Spirit would need to draw, and they would need the Thorns to lose their game. In that case, those two - as well as the Current, if they lose as well - would all be on ten points, but the Spirit would win on goal differential - they would have a +5 differential, whereas the Thorns would have +3 or fewer, and the Current would have +1 or fewer.

Red Stars

The Red Stars have only one route to the playoffs: beat the Current and win the central division. Since the second place team in the western division is guaranteed to have at least ten points, and the Red Stars currently have only eight, they cannot lose or draw this game and remain in contention for the best second place spot.

Other Items to Watch:

While the Pride have been eliminated from the Challenge Cup playoff race, Viviana Villacorta is expected to be available for selection for them this weekend - she was a first-round pick for the them in the 2021 college draft, but suffered a season-ending injury while finishing her final season at UCLA and was not able to play for the Pride at all last season. While I wouldn't expect her to start just yet, she was a very promising prospect, and could ultimately give the Pride a much-needed boost coming into the regular season.

The Spirit have gotten Emily Sonnett back in shape - just in time to lose Sam Staab to COVID protocols this week. They're having to lean on their backup center backs much more this Challenge Cup than they were probably expecting to. They're also missing Taylor Aylmer, Gaby Vincent, and possibly Andi Sullivan, so their defensive midfield is going to be a question this week as well.

Janine Beckie is expected to be available for the Thorns in their game on Sunday, which is just devastating for Angel City.

Speaking of Angel City, Freya....make some changes. Or at least some substitutions.

[pleaserelaxfc]

NWSL Challenge Cup Thoughts: Week 5, West

With the game played between the Reign and the Wave on Thursday, all the teams in the western division are now back on the same number of games played. The Reign still seem on track to win the division and the Thorns are in fairly good shape for the best-second-place spot, while Angel City no longer has any chance of making the semi-finals, and the Wave would need an incredible stroke of luck to get there. Mid-week, the Reign beat the Wave 3-1, and before the international break, the Wave got their first-ever win, 4-2 over Angel City, and the Reign pulled out a 1-0 win over the Thorns to move them towards the top of the division.

Current Standings and Maximum Potential Points:

OL Reign: 10 points (16 possible)

Portland Thorns: 7 points (13 possible)

San Diego Wave: 4 points (10 possible)

Angel City FC: 1 point (7 possible)

Games to be played this weekend:

Reign - Angel City (6:00 Sun., CBS Sports Network)

Thorns - Wave (7:00 Sun., Paramount+)

Items to watch:

Given recent form, the Reign-Angel City game looks like it could be something in favor of the Reign. A win will guarantee them a spot in the semi-finals, and a draw will come close to doing so as well: even if they don't win the division, with 11 points, they would be guaranteed second place, and the highest possible second place finisher from the central division won't have more than 10 points, so they would only have to worry about the eastern division's second-place finisher, who can't earn more than a total of 11 points themselves.

The Thorns can't guarantee themselves a spot in the semi-finals this weekend, but a win would put them in pretty good position for one with 10 points. They will be without Natalia Kuikka this week, who has been key for them in creating opportunities, but with the depth that Portland has, that probably won't hurt them too much.

The Wave's game against the Thorns tonight might shed some light on how well the Wave will be able to compete during the regular season - the Thorns are a difficult team to play against, but after going down a goal in the fifth minute in their previous matchup, the Wave held them scoreless for the next 85. If they can manage a similarly close result in this game, I think it would show a lot of promise for them going forward in the season, even if their path to the Challenge Cup playoffs is pretty narrow.

With the results from the games earlier this weekend, there is no longer any path for Angel City to reach the semi-finals (even if they did manage second place in the division, the second-place finisher in the central division is guaranteed to have a better record), so these next two games are just for the pride for them. With Christen Press listed on the availability report as questionable due to illness, it will be interesting to see if Freya Coombe decides to shake things up to give some different players minutes on the field with each other, or if she continues to try to get the group she has been playing so far to click. Personally, with ten players having averaged 75 minutes or more across the first four games (and an eleventh likely would have as well, if not for a red card), I'd like to see a few additional players getting minutes, if for no other reason than it's nearly a guarantee that someone in that lineup will miss time at some point during the season.

[pleaserelaxfc]

NWSL Challenge Cup Thoughts: Week 5, East

After getting their third loss of the Challenge Cup in week 4, the Orlando Pride have been eliminated from contention for the top spot in the east, but while the North Carolina Courage have come out strong so far, both the Washington Spirit and NJ/NY Gotham FC are still in contention. Before the international break, the Spirit defeated the Pride 4-1, and Gotham drew against the Courage. This week's games will see the top-of-the-table Courage trying to maintain their dominance against the Pride, and the mid-table teams Spirit and Gotham fighting each other to stay alive in the competition.

Current Standings and Maximum Potential Points:

North Carolina Courage: 8 points (14 possible)

Washington Spirit: 6 points (12 possible)

NJ/NY Gotham FC: 5 points (11 possible)

Orlando Pride: 1 point (7 possible)

Games to be played this weekend:

Pride - Courage (7:00 Sat., Paramount+)

Gotham - Spirit (3:00 Sun., Paramount+)

Items to watch:

Both the Courage and the Spirit can guarantee themselves at least second place in the group with a win this week, but Gotham can also put themselves into fairly good position with a win. Between the two games, Gotham-Spirit is likely to be much more competitive, although both will have implications for the semi-finals.

For the Courage, a win will guarantee them at least second place; combined with a draw between Gotham and the Spirit, they will have locked up first place in the group. They will also be guaranteed at least second place if they draw against the Pride and the Spirit beat Gotham; otherwise, they could finish anywhere between first and third, with varying degrees of likelihood.

For the Spirit, a win guarantees them either first or second, with the ultimate placing coming down to their final game against the Courage, regardless of the result in the other game this weekend. If the Courage win and the Spirit don't, they will be out of the running for first place, but second place will still be in play - otherwise, they could place anywhere in the table.

Gotham can't lock up a spot in the top half of the table this weekend, but they can lock themselves out of first with a loss, or with a draw if the Courage get a result against the Pride.

The Pride's problems in the attack seem unlikely to improve much this weekend - Syd Leroux, who was likely going to have to carry the team largely on her back throughout the season with Marta out, is now listed on the injury report with an achilles injury. Darian Jenkins is an excellent attacher, but I'm not sure she has enough behind her to pull a result out against the Courage.

The NWSL's injury report doesn't have anyone listed for the Courage - although that's probably just an input error, rather than there being in fact no injuries, their roster is likely to be a little bit stronger than it has been in the past, assuming all of their internationals are fresh and ready to play - Kerolin got a few minutes in the Courage's last match, looking dangerous against Gotham, and Diana Ordoñez looked incredible off the bench for Mexico over the break, while starting goalkeeper Casey Murphy stayed with the club but seems close to a return from injury.

Meanwhile, the Spirit seem to be getting stronger, with Emily Sonnett likely to be back available this weekend, as well as a couple of players who have been out with longer-term injuries possibly getting a few minutes in. They also had several players put in significant minutes for their countries over the break, but like the Courage, if those players are ready to play by Sunday, they will likely all be dangerous.

[pleaserelaxfc]

NWSL Challenge Cup Thoughts: Week 5, Central

With all teams having played four games and somehow, all teams in the Central division still in the running for a spot in the semi-finals, the next two games should be interesting. Before the international break, Racing Louisville beat the Kansas City Current 3-0 and the Chicago Red Stars defeated the Houston Dash 2-0 - this weekend, the teams that lost those matches will face each other, and then the winners will face each other.

Current Standings and Maximum Potential Points:

Chicago Red Stars: 7 points (13 possible)

Kansas City Current: 7 points (13 possible)

Racing Louisville: 5 points (11 possible)

Houston Dash: 3 points (9 possible)

Games to be played this weekend:

Current - Dash (8:00 Fri., CBS Sports Network)

Racing - Red Stars (7:30 Sat., Paramount+)

Items to watch:

Both of this week's games are make-or-break for the teams currently down in the standings, but particularly the Current/Dash game - if the Dash lose or draw to the Current, they can't finish higher than 3rd place.

For Racing, a loss would take them out of the running for 1st - combined with the Dash losing, it would also take them out of the running for 2nd; a draw combined with a Dash loss would also take Racing out of the running for 1st. In either case, they would probably not have enough points to earn the best-second-place spot in the semi-finals.

On the other side of the coin, neither the Current nor the Red Stars can guarantee themselves 1st place in this group this weekend, but a win for one and a loss for the other would put the winner in a pretty comfortable position heading into the final week, where the two will face off against each other.

The Current had a pretty strong start to the Challenge Cup, but have been racking up injuries to their major players - in addition to Lynn Williams' season-ending hamstring injury, Sam Mewis has suffered a setback in her recovery and Hailie Mace has also picked up an injury (severity unknown at the moment), and neither of them will be playing this weekend. If either Mewis or Mace is expected to be out past the end of the Challenge Cup, the Current could probably stand to pick up at least one more player - otherwise, they will be relying very heavily on Hamilton, Bennett, and LaBonta.

St. Georges has been playing really well for the Red Stars, but she will be out this week for yellow card accumulation (at least one of which seemed a little soft).

[pleaserelaxfc]

NWSL Challenge Cup Thoughts: Week 4(ish), West

Current Standings:

Portland Thorns: 7 pts

OL Reign: 4 pts

San Diego Wave: 1 pt (-1 GD)

Angel City FC: 1 pt (-5 GD)

The Western region is the only one currently on a different number of games played, with Angel City having played the Thorns mid-week - the Wave and the Reign will make the difference up on April 14. Both games this week should be pretty exciting - with the way things are shaping up throughout the group, the game between the Thorns and the Reign is likely to determine which team wins the whole group, while Angel City will be fighting just to stay in the race, since if they get a worse result than the Thorns today, they will be eliminated from contention for first place.

Last Week's Games:

Angel City vs. Reign, 1-3:

Angel City came out strong in the opening ten minutes, but the Reign turned it around and got two goals in pretty quick succession - for the first, Rose Lavelle threaded a ball through for Veronica Latsko that was just a bit wide for Didi Haračić to intercept, and Latsko sent it in with her first touch. About five minutes later, Alana Cook headed in a cross from Angelina all the way to the back post. Then, around the half-hour mark, Savannah McCaskill got red-carded for a tackle that she went into studs-up - it was technically the correct call, but in the context of the officiating throughout the game, felt soft. Angel City seemed to settle in a bit afterwards, though, and although they did concede again (Haračić came out to get what looked like a Latsko shot, but wasn't able to stop it and Angelina tapped it in from the back post), it didn't become the bloodbath that it could have, and ultimately Tyler Lussi did manage to pull one goal back off of a Simone Charley assist.

Angel City still seems to have some major questions with their back line - although they're all decent players, as a unit they haven't figured themselves out. I think this was most clearly shown on the first goal, where Latsko got completely free inside the box, but there were several other risky moments. On the other side, Christen Press is clearly going to be a massive piece for them, and although her shots are incredible, her ball-getting efforts shouldn't be minimized either. Charley also made a pretty big impact when she came off the bench for Endo - she has been out since with a foot injury, but if she's able to come back from that quickly she could make a huge impact for this team.

If the Reign's biggest question coming into this season was with their goalkeeping situation, that question has been answered - the entire goal-of-the-week montage could have come from Phallon Tullis-Joyce. Their attack was on fire as well, as expected, but it's particularly impressive that three players who had never scored for the Reign before got their first goals in this game.

The refereeing here was practically an additional player - although it wasn't completely one-sided, there were several questionable decisions made. Shortly before the McCaskill red card, there was a moment where players from both teams seemed to think that some fouled had been committed and play slowed down, but nothing was ever called - such things were emblematic of the refereeing throughout.

Wave vs. Thorns, 0-1:

After Sophia Smith scored off of a Natalia Kuikka corner in the fifth minute, this game could have opened up, but ultimately neither team was able to score again and that was the only goal separating the two teams at full-time.

The Thorns came out again in a 3-5-2, and again their ability to push their wingbacks forward came in handy, with Kuikka providing the assist just at the start of the game. The two of them ended up everywhere, creating lots of opportunities across the field, throughout the course of the game. Their defensive unit was solid as well, and acknowledgement has to be given to Abby Smith, the Thorns' backup goalkeeper, who came up with a handful of impressive saves on the day.

For the Wave, Sofia Jakobsson got the start, and demonstrated just how important she is going to be - she seemed to be creating almost all of the Wave's opportunities. On the other side of the field, Abby Dahlkemper does not seem to be back to her pre-Olympics form - in particular, I think she was the one keeping Sophia Smith onside for her goal, but she didn't seem to able to step up to her to prevent that goal or later opportunities.

Thorns vs. Angel City, 3-0:

As usual, Angel City exerted some pressure early on but ultimately ran out of steam and allowed their opponent to take the lead. Sophia Smith again opened the scoring with an assist from a wingback - her shot had so much power on it I could barely see it in motion. After the half, Didi Haracic made a save on one Thorns shot, but didn't keep the ball under control and Yazmeen Ryan put the rebound in the back of the net. Finally, Morgan Weaver sent in an absolute rocket from the top of the box to close out the game.

Despite making several changes to their lineup, particularly in the midfield, the Thorns seemed to be just as cohesive a unit as ever. Smith and Weaver are a complete menace as a front pair, and even the newer players are showing their ability to contribute. Ryan also made several good plays, in addition to sticking with the ball in to ultimately score the second goal.

Angel City's performance on the day really showed how badly they are lacking in depth. With McCaskill out for red card accumulation and Simone Charley out with a foot injury, Jun Endo moved back into the midfield, Jasmyne Spencer moved up to the forward line, Madison Hammond moved to outside back, and Allyson Swaby came in at center back. While I think Endo actually did better as a midfielder than as a forward, Spencer didn't seem able to create much from the forward line. Haracic had an iffy game - she did make an incredible save from close range early on, but did make a mistake to concede the Ryan goal - but I also really enjoyed the game of chicken she played on the edge of the six-yard box with a Thorns attacker.

This Week's Games:

Wave vs. Angel City (4:00, 4/2):

I think Angel City is going to get their first win here, but it will be a close one, maybe 2-1. I don't think either defensive unit is strong enough to keep a clean sheet, but I think Angel City's attack is hungrier.

Thorns vs. Reign (10:00, 4/2):

I think I'll go with another 2-1 win here - this time for the Reign. The Thorns came together mid-week, but the Reign have been incredibly dynamic so far.

[pleaserelaxfc]

NWSL Challenge Cup Thoughts: Week 4, Central

Current Standings:

Kansas City Current: 7 pts

Chicago Red Stars: 4 pts

Houston Dash: 3 pts

Racing Louisville: 2 pts

A commanding win by the Current mid-week moved them clear to the top of the standings for the Central division, despite their two USWNT players being out with injury. Keep an eye on the game between the Current and Racing this week - if Racing loses, they are eliminated from contention for the top spot in this group. In that situation, the Dash would also be eliminated if they lose against the Red Stars.

Last Week's Games:

Red Stars vs. Racing, 0-0:

Despite the ultimate scoreline, both teams had several good chances in this game. Although Racing came very close to opening the scoring in the opening minutes when Alyssa Naeher made a close save on Ebony Salmon's header off a corner, the Red Stars generally kept the pressure on Louisville's defense for the first part of the game. Later on, Julia Lester made a crucial tackle on Ava Cook, and at the very end of the half, Emina Ekic beat Naeher only to be denied by the crossbar, while Kirsten Davis wasn't able to turn quickly enough to get the rebound shot on target. There were also several moments throughout the game where both teams came close to scoring own goals - possibly attributable to the heavy rain.

The Red Stars are handling the loss of several of their key players fairly well, and in particular, their rookies seem to be settling in nicely. Ava Cook looks to be developing a pretty solid partnership with Mal Pugh, which will be crucial with Kealia Watt out indefinitely, and Sarah Griffith also had a strong night. The Red Stars seem to be sticking with the three-back formation, which is working out for them despite having three players without much NWSL experience there, although I would be interested to see how well it works with anyone other than Naeher in goal - she had to come up with big saves on several occasions. Also just as a point of amusement, Arin Wright had a sequence towards the end of the game where she bounced around several defenders, although eventually nothing came of it.

Racing started to show their ability to work as a flexible, cohesive unit in this game. While Ebony Salmon wasn't able to score in this game, she created a lot of promising chances, and I expect that, if given more minutes throughout the season, she'll earn several goals and assists. I also thought Emina Ekic did pretty well playing more centrally than she usually does, so that's something to keep an eye on going forward. Jaelin Howell still doesn't seem to have quite settled into the team, although she did seem to grow into the game in the second half. Kim Björkegren made a couple of defensive changes coming into this game as well - first, moving Julia Lester to center back and Addisyn Merrick to right back, and then, a few minutes into the game, switching Merrick to the left and Emily Fox to the right. Merrick and Lester both seem to be flexible defenders, so while I think Merrick's partnership with Bonner was solid, I'm also glad to see them trying out another one during the Challenge Cup. More importantly, it was good to see Racing adapting to their opponents, specifically moving Fox to the right to match up with Pugh.

Dash vs. Current, 0-3:

The Current really took their opportunity in this game to announce that even without Lynn Williams or Sam Mewis, they are a different quality team this year than they were last year. Although the Dash had more control over the ball throughout the game, and largely kept it in the Current's defensive half, the Current made the absolute most of their opportunities, while the Dash weren't able to follow through on any of them. The Current made their mark early on, with Taylor Leach sending in an incredible volley off of Hailie Mace's corner in the second minute that there was simply nothing Jane Campbell could do about. Then, just before the half-hour mark, Kristen Hamilton again volleyed a ball in, this time off of Elyse Bennett's cross. It wasn't much different in the second half, and around the hour mark, Bennett received the ball and made a very impressive turn around a defender to send it through to Lo'eau Labonta, who scored.

The Dash came out with a similar lineup to the one that had gotten them three goals in the second half against Racing last weekend, but weren't able to use it as efficiently this time. Although María Sánchez continued to work through defenders and Nichelle Prince had some similar moments on the opposite side, neither were able to connect with players in the box. Probably the highlight for the Dash was a powerful shot from Makamae Gomera-Stevens that Cassie Miller was just able to push onto the crossbar. Shortly thereafter, the Dash got very lucky not to be given a red card on Jane Campbell: it very much looked like she used her hand or arm to make a stop on Bennett outside the box - the only other thing I have to add here is that this is a very, very good example of why the NWSL needs better production, because it seems that there were no cameras able to get a view of the side of Campbell's body where contact would have been made.

The Current seemed to come out in either a three-back or a five-back, with Leach, Elizabeth Ball, and Alex Loera in the center of the defense, and clearly whatever it was worked out well for them. In addition to Leach's incredible finish for their first goal, Loera made an important stop on what was nearly a point-blank shot from the Dash. Finally, while all three of their goals were absolutely incredible finishes, player of the match for me has to go to Elyse Bennett, who just never slowed down.

This Week's Games:

Current vs. Racing (3:00, 4/2):

I think this one will be closer than the current standings show - between injuries and an already small roster, I think the Current will be feeling the impact of the mid-week game more than Racing, while Racing has been improving and seems to be just on the verge of finding their groove together. Additionally, Nadia Nadim isn't listed on the injury report for Racing this week - while I would be pretty surprised by that turnaround if she is actually able to play this week, having her that close to a return could at least be a psychological boost to the team. So, I'm going to go with a 1-1 draw here, repeating their previous result.

Red Stars vs. Dash (8:00, 4/2):

I'm going to go with a Red Stars win here, and a 2-0 scoreline. The Dash are still trying to figure out their defense, and the Red Stars seem to have several alternative lineups that can each scrape out successes - and I'd only expect them to improve with Morgan Gautrat back in the mix.

[pleaserelaxfc]

NWSL Challenge Cup Thoughts: Week 3, Central

Current Standings:

Kansas City Current: 4 pts

Chicago Red Stars: 3 pts (+1 GD)

Houston Dash: 3 pts (-1 GD)

Racing Louisville: 1 pt

Two come-from-behind results in the Central division last week have given Kansas City the lead here, although every team is still very much in it. The Red Stars and the Current, now in the top two spots in the table, have both announced season-ending injuries to some of their top players this week (Lynn Williams for the Current and Tierna Davidson for the Red Stars) so they may both need to reorganize themselves to adjust to those losses.

Last Week's Games:

Racing vs. Dash, 2-3:

Racing came out surprisingly strong here, with two really skillful goals from Kristen Davis and Jess McDonald in the first half. However, the Dash made some positional changes at half-time and came back the stronger side, ultimately scoring three goals to give the Dash their first win of the Cup.

For Racing, Kirsten Davis seems to have found her footing - after looking a little shaky in her first start, she was very strong in last week's game. Jaelin Howell is probably on her way there, but doesn't seem to have settled in quite as well yet - she seemed a bit hesitant to run at Dash players in general (although at some point she did get into some amusing shenanigans with Shea Groom). Addisyn Merrick continues to be very solid at center back, and looks like she could be a good long-term partner for Gemma Bonner there. Also, Julia Lester had to come in late in the first half after Emily Fox came out under concussion protocols, and seemed to slip into the team nicely given that she had only been with them for less than a week - that will be an important piece to shore up the shallow back line in Louisville.

The Dash didn't seem to be at their best in the first half - in particular, María Sánchez wasn't getting on the ball as much as she did against the Red Stars. However, at half time they brought Julia Ashley and Makamae Gomera-Stevens on in place of Shea Groom and Kelcie Hedge, and moved Sophie Schmidt into the midfield with Ashley replacing her in the back line. This seemed to open up more opportunities to get Sánchez onto the ball, and she was crucial in creating goals for the Dash. Ashley also seemed to hold up pretty well as a center back - there had been some gaps in the defensive line before halftime, and notably, a miscommunication between goalkeeper Jane Campbell and center backs Schmidt and Katie Naughton allowed Davis her goal. Allysha Chapman is still going strong at left back, but she also got very, very lucky not to be sent off with a second yellow card (a couple of times). The Dash have called Ally Prisock back from her loan to France, and I'm interested to see whether that is to address some questions at outside back or if it's to shore up the center back depth so that Schmidt can move back into the midfield permanently.

Red Stars vs. Current, 1-2:

The Red Stars got on the board in the first half with a goal from Vanessa DiBernardo that took such a deflection that AD Franch couldn't get anywhere near it, and they looked the slightly more dominant team for most of the game. In the second half, though, Hailie Mace scored an absolute banger, and then followed it up with an assist off of a weird bounce to allow Kristen Hamilton to score the winning goal in the eighty-sixth minute.

The Red Stars continued to work on their three-back system, this time with Kayla Sharples in for Tierna Davidson, and for a long stretch of the game it seemed to work. Mal Pugh is still doing insane things on the ball, and there were a lot of moments where she came very close to scoring or creating another goal for the Red Stars. With Tierna Davidson now out with an ACL injury for the rest of the season, and the defense already down several of their mainstays, Chicago will need to rely heavily on Pugh's ability to create goals (and to defend in the attacking half), and on several defenders with little or no experience in the league.

The Current were already playing without Lynn Williams, and with Sam Mewis limited only to one half, so it isn't terribly surprising that they struggled to create much in the way of goalscoring opportunities, but their rookie center backs held up admirably and kept the Red Stars to one goal going into halftime. Mace, one of the Current's first acquisitions demonstrated how important she was to the team throughout, and although Hamilton seemed to be struggling to make an impact for a while, she ultimately did well to keep herself onside and then convert on the opportunity that Mace opened up for her. Elyse Bennett also impressed after coming on for about twenty minutes - hopefully she is able to keep that up with Williams out long-term and the forward ranks pretty shallow for the Current.

This Week's Games:

Red Stars vs. Racing (7:30, 3/30):

I'm leaning towards a 2-2 draw here - both teams have shown that they can score, but also have some weaknesses in defense, and I'm not sure that either will outshine the other tonight.

Dash vs. Current (8:30, 3/30):

Risky wager (or it would be, if I were actually wagering anything), but I'm going to lean towards the Current again here, with another 2-1 scoreline. I think the win last week against the Red Stars probably did a lot of good for their confidence, especially since they got both goals without Mewis or Williams on the field.

[pleaserelaxfc]

NWSL Challenge Cup Thoughts: Week 3, East

Current Standings:

North Carolina Courage: 6 pts

Washington Spirit: 2 pts

Orlando Pride: 1 pt (-1 GD)

NJ/NY Gotham FC: 1 pt (-2 GD)

Both the Spirit and the Courage were dominant in their games this weekend, but weren't able to convert as many opportunities as they should have. This leaves the East the most stratified division in the Challenge Cup so far, and with the Spirit in second place with only two points, if the Courage win tonight, they come very close to guaranteeing themselves a spot in the semifinals.

Last Week's Games:

Spirit vs. Gotham, 1-1:

The Spirit had the better of his game overall, but Gotham took an early lead when Kristie Mewis converted a penalty earned by Midge Purce. The Spirit leveled in the second half off of a stellar shot from Ashley Hatch, but not too long later, center back Amber Brooks was sent off the field with her second yellow card of the night, and neither team was able to get a winner.

Despite their dominance, the Spirit have to work on finishing their chances - they created several really good opportunities, but sent a lot of them just wide. Trinity Rodman continued to be a nightmare for opposing teams in the attack, but she did give up a pretty silly foul for Gotham's penalty. Tinaya Alexander also had a good game, for it being her first start - she definitely grew into the game throughout the first half. Ashley Sanchez continues to do more and more Ashley Sanchez things - I can't explain it in any other way, but I want to keep seeing them.

Gotham had their best stretch of the game in the few minutes after Brooks was sent off, but the Spirit ultimately found their footing and Gotham allowed them to go back on the attack for the last several minutes of the game. A few players had good games individually - Estelle Johnson in particular did very well to shut Rodman down on at least one occasion that could have easily lead to a signature Rodman goal, and their attack did seem more dynamic and cohesive with Mewis and Ify Onumonu back in - but they are clearly still working on pulling it all together.

Courage vs. Pride, 1-0:

Honestly, the Pride were pretty lucky to come out of this one only down one goal. The Courage were in charge for most of the game, and although their only goal came from a penalty, they were threatening for almost all of the first half and large chunks of the second.

The Courage came out with an even more defender-heavy lineup, with Debinha (excused absence) replaced by Kiki Pickett. Taylor Smith (I think the only player in the lineup who had ever played as a forward at the professional level before this season) had several dangerous chances throughout the game, and I'm looking forward to seeing how she and Kiki Pickett are able to combine throughout the season. The Courage did well to maintain their pressure and ultimately won a penalty after a cross hit Gunny Jónsdóttir's hand in the box - Merritt Mathias took the penalty incredibly well to give the Courage what would ultimately be their winning goal.

The Pride faced an additional hurdle early on in the game, when Marta went down with what seemed to be a pretty severe injury. Although she was able to get up and back onto the field initially, a few minutes later she went down again and had to come off for the rest of the game - and will be out for a significant period of time. The Pride weren't able to make much in the attack for most of the game, but the did get a few good chances in in the last ten to fifteen minutes - starting around the same time that Erika Tymrak came on for Jónsdóttir. If they can find that energy in future games, they could come up with some good results, but without Marta, I'm not sure they will be able to maintain it.

This Week's Games:

Pride vs. Gotham (7:00, 3/30):

This one will be interesting, given that both teams have underperformed a bit so far. I'm going to go ahead and suggest a Gotham win, 1-0, although I would probably have had it going the other way if Marta were still in the mix. As it is, Syd Leroux and Darian Jenkins are going to have to make their partnership work pretty quickly if they want to get anything out of this game. (Or, in light of the starting lineups that just came out, Leroux, Tymrak, and Cluff will have to make their partnership work well enough to beat Gotham's Estelle-Johnson-less back line, and hope that their new goalkeeper is up to the challenge presented by Onumonu and Purce).

Spirit vs. Courage (7:30, 3/30):

This could go so many ways. I'm hoping for a Spirit win, and playing at Audi field, they might have a chance at that, but more realistically, I'm going to go with a 1-1 draw. As it stands, the Spirit are missing at least one of their starting center backs, may be missing Tara McKeown (left foot injury), and will probably be rotating a few other players given the three-game week, so I'm not sure that tonight will be their opportunity to turn their results around.

[pleaserelaxfc]

USWNT: Roster Thoughts

The USWNT roster for their April friendlies against Uzbekistan came out today - here's my thoughts following the drop.

My overarching thoughts are (1) a bit surprised (but not particularly mad) at how similar this roster looks to the last few - I would have expected a couple of the veterans who have been out to start getting back in to develop/maintain chemistry with the largely new back line and the newer forwards, especially since for a while the line has been that the vets would be back in "in the spring," and (2) deeply upset at how many players are injured.

Goalkeepers:

Excited to see Bella Bixby back in the mix, and as a Spirit fan, I love seeing Kingsbury getting call-ups. I just hope that one of them actually gets minutes (particularly Kingsbury, since Washington's depth at goalkeeper is not great - I'd rather she not get called away from the team just to sit on the bench).

Casey Murphy has been out for the Courage since the beginning of the Challenge Cup with a right knee injury, and I would like to know more about that - mostly because of how many USWNT players have suffered season-ending injuries in the last two weeks, I would just like an update on the prognosis for Murphy, since she has been so promising with the national team so far. Vlatko apparently told press that it is just a little knock and she was on the border of being able to make it back in time for these friendlies.

Curious whether the continued selections of Bixby and Kingsbury indicate that Franch and Campbell are now on the outside looking in, or if that's just another part of Vlatko's approach to getting new players into the mix before the World Cup. Personally, I'm fine with Campbell being out of the mix - I don't think she's been as impressive for her club as Bixby, Kingsbury, or Murphy, but Franch is still pretty solid, and since Kingsbury is only one year younger than her, I don't think it's an age thing (although it might also have something to do with wanting to spend more time with her newborn).

Defenders:

Hate to see Tierna Davidson out for any period, and especially for such a long one as this. Hate it absolutely.

Always sad when Becky Sauerbrunn isn't able to play, but glad that it sounds like her injury should have her back on the field in the near-ish future.

Also disappointed that Emily Sonnett's abdominal injury, which Kris Ward said might take a few weeks to deal with, is keeping her out of this camp - with both Davidson and Sauerbrunn out (and Dahlkemper still not at her best), it might have pushed Vlatko and the coaching staff into giving her at least a few minutes at center back, where she should be.

However, very excited to see Naomi Girma get some minutes there - she has looked really good with the Wave. Abby Dahlkemper, Girma's center back partner at the Wave, has looked decent but not back to her pre-2021 form yet. Dahlkemper has still gotten called in to this camp, and maybe she can use this opportunity to shake off any lingering ghosts, but honestly I'm hoping to see Girma and Cook get most of the minutes.

Very glad that whatever took Emily Fox off the field during the first half of last weekend's game isn't anything long-term. Also thrilled that Imani Dorsey is getting another look. Although Fox is probably the starter for both matches, I hope Dorsey does get some decent minutes so that we aren't relying on a single player having experience there (hot take, I know), especially with the recent spate of injuries.

Other than injured players/expected absences due to pregnancy, I don't think there are any other defenders that I would have expected to see here - still a bit confused by the decision not to bring in Caprice Dydasco and/or Carson Pickett (neither of whom would even be thirty by the time the World Cup kicks off) starting in November, but at this point that is what it is.

Midfielders:

Not a lot of surprises here, and almost shockingly injury-free (not to jinx it). Other than Julie Ertz, who hasn't played (or, seemingly, even trained with a team) since the Olympics, the next biggest hit on the roster is probably Morgan Gautrat, who has been on the bubble of making her way back to the national team in recent months - the Red Stars have listed her as out with a calf injury that was probably picked up during the previous national team camp.

Glad that Sam Mewis and Rose Lavelle are both far enough along in their recovery to be back in camp. Not sure about Lavelle, but I don't expect Mewis to start in these games - hopefully she'll get some good minutes, though.

Also glad to see both Jaelin Howell and Ashley Sanchez getting some more consistent call-ups. I really dislike Lindsey Horan as a defensive midfielder, and with Ertz out...indefinitely, and Gautrat injured as well, it's important to get Howell some minutes there so that we aren't (again) relying exclusively on one player there (although I do think Andi Sullivan is fantastic). I thought the Sanchez-Kristie Mewis pairing in attacking midfield was very fun to watch in the SheBelieves Cup, and they could probably get even more wonderful things done against Uzbekistan.

Forwards:

Catarina Macario is listed as a midfielder but I'm going to treat her as a forward anyway because given the other players we have on the roster, that is where she belongs. The other forwards are great, of course, but other than Hatch, they are all natural wingers, and I know we aren't going to rely on only one central forward player. Macario was great at that role, particularly when given a little more freedom, and I hope they continue trying to work to her unique strengths this time.

Hate hate hate hate that Lynn Williams has a season-ending injury. I love her playing style, I think it was important to have someone with her experience in a lineup as new as this, and I feel like her issues are more confidence than skill, so I was hoping that after her relative success at the Olympics and with a good amount of time before final World Cup roster selection, she would have a chance to really come into herself on the national team. Hate this for her and for us.

I am surprised that we didn't get at least Christen Press back into the fold this time, especially with Williams out (although honestly, I would have loved to see Press and Williams working together on a pressing strategy - one of the scarier things I could imagine for an opposition team). Press has been on fire for Angel City the last two weeks, and so long as players like Kelley O'Hara (a known quantity and roughly the same age) and Alyssa Naeher (a known quantity and hadn't played since the Olympics until SheBelieves) are getting called in, it is baffling to me that Press wouldn't be called in. I'm hoping this just means that she wanted to focus on club training/didn't want to risk injury in a friendly and decided herself that it wasn't yet time to re-join the national team.

Hatch has been pretty solid in the traditional central forward role, so I'm happy to see her back again, although I would have liked to see Bethany Balcer on the roster as well.

I am interested to see the continued development of Purce, Smith, Rodman, and Pugh on the wings. There were a lot of good moments at SheBelieves, and with a little more time together and being closer to in-season form, these games should see more of their quality chances converted. Again, this pool feels a little bit shallow, especially if Rodman and Pugh are still unvaccinated and planning to stay that way - although perhaps it's less shallow than it looks if Crystal Dunn comes back from maternity leave interested in playing in a winger role.

Another consideration for the forward pool is that OL Reign played Rose Lavelle as a wide forward last weekend (as did Manchester City a few times last year), and several people with more soccer knowledge than I have have also mentioned that Lindsey Horan could play as a striker - with so few forwards, I'm interested in seeing whether any of the midfielders get moved around.