plmstest2-blog

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Bruins @ Leafs - Game 18 - Nov.10.17

KEY NARRATIVES

Toronto Maple Leafs (10-7-0) vs Boston Bruins (6-5-3)

On Friday night the Leafs face the Bruins at home in the first half of a back to back. Tomorrow they'll face the Bruins again in Boston. It should be an exciting pair of games considering the bitter rivalry between the two teams.

While there's often some bad blood between two Original Six teams, this particular rivalry was reinvigorated only four years ago, in the Leafs only playoff showing in the decade predating the arrival of Auston Matthews. It was a strange year, shortened by a lockout that had teams only playing 48 games that season - and the Leafs were winning games. Deep down everyone knew that the team shouldn't have been good. They had the lowest CF% in the entire league and yet... somehow they managed to secure a spot at ninth overall in the league.

They faced off against the Bruins in round one. Even then the Leafs didn't seem horribly outmatched if you looked at the scoresheets. The teams traded wins and losses until the series reached game seven. By the end of the second period, the score was 2-1 in favor of Toronto.

They followed it up with another two before minute six of the third period, bringing the score to 4-1 Toronto with only fourteen minutes and seventy-one seconds left in the game.

The Leafs lost to the Boston Bruins in overtime, five to four.

For the city, it was the worst kind of heartbreak. It's one thing to be bad, play bad, and know you're bad. It's the hope that really hurts (a lesson we can take into this year as we nitpick even the Leafs' victories).

Long story short, while Boston was clearly the better team that year, going onto the Stanley Cup Final before being taken out by the Blackhawks, the 2013 Leafs-Bruins series added fuel an old rivalry, urging it into the blazing flame that it is today.

Unfortunately, some of the fun will be robbed from this unlikely rivalry driven back-to-back by the news that once again Auston Matthews will sit out of a game. While my heart hopes he comes back in a fiery blaze of vengeance tomorrow in Boston, it seems most likely that missing this game implies missing tomorrow as well. My brain says this isn't the worst thing. Missing the game against the Wild on Wednesday, plus the two against the Bruins will give Matthews a full nine days to recover before they play New Jersey next Thursday at home. The schedule affording the team this much time while missing so few games is a luxury, and one they seem to be taking advantage of to make sure Matthews is ready to go for the long haul.

Brad Marchand, the pesky star winger of the Bruins, has also missed games and was listed today as a game-time decision. However, he was seen in Toronto today carrying all his gear which implies there's a real possibility he's in the lineup tonight.

Other key players on the Bruins include tallest-player-in-the-league / scariest human / aging Captain, Zdeno Chara. Their top line center is Patrice Bergeron, a year over year top Selke candidate (defensive forward award). They also just signed a deal over the summer with thir new young star, David Pastrnak, who is the final piece of one of the single scariest lines in the NHL (Marchand - Bergeron - Pastrnak). While age and depth are both concerns of this Bruins team, this year they still look like they could be a true cup contender, if the injury bug leaves them alone for the rest of the season.

Key Numbers

37 - Patrice Bergeron - Center 33 - Zdeno Chara - Defenseman - Captain 63 - Brad Marchand - Left Wing 88 - David Pastrnak - Right Wing 73 - Charlie McAvoy - Defenseman

THE HIGHLIGHTS

THE POST GAME

Score: W 3-2 OT

Brad Marchand did join the Bruins on the ice in Toronto. Unfortunately for Boston, it was enough to turn the tide on a close game. This victory brings the Leafs to a three-game win streak, two of which have been played without Auston Matthews. I'd call that holding down the fort.

Barring the line illustrated in our Key Numbers section, the Bruins forwards were basically unrecognizable. If you'd quizzed me "Hockey player or not?" on the names on that list I don't think I could have gone 50/50. They do have a couple mid-level injuries, but not to the point that this doesn't expose a more chronic depth issue, one which the Leafs exploited throughout this matchup. Still, the teams ended up with an even split on 5v5 CF%, largely due to the Kadri line getting steamrolled by the Marchand/Bergeron/Pasternak Demogorgon—I mean line.

Unsurprisingly, that was the only productive group of Bruins forwards, each of them collecting one of the three points given on the night (the defensemen did a little better). The first Bruins goal, and the only even-strength tally on the board, came from Marchand to Bergeron 15 minutes into the second period.

Luckily, the score was evened just 15 seconds before the end of the period on a powerplay goal banged in by James van Riemsdyk.

The third period followed a hilariously similar pattern. Pastrnak scores on the power play at 14:30 into the period. The minutes tick down and Babcock pulls Freddie (who finished the night with a sterling .943 sv% himself) to ice an extra attacker. Mitch Marner, a day late to throwback Thursday, saucers a beautiful pass onto JvR's stick for an uncontested tip in.

Sorry Boston. The Leafs have some shit to prove.

Before touching on overtime and the continuation of Return of the Mighty Mouse, I want to look at James van Riemsdyk, who comes away with two goals on the evening. Drafted second overall by the Flyers in 2007, JvR was traded to the Leafs in 2012. While his defensive limitations are... well known, in seasons where he's been healthy, he's a solid almost 30 goal, 50+ point player. Recently, the Bozak like, which was so effective last year, seemed to fall apart. What's fascinating is the ways in which blame was assigned for this failing. Arguably it fell primarily to Bozak (a vet in a funk) and Marner (a star rookie slipping up a step). This was seen in the moving of Marner onto the fourth line, then Bozak as well. Why wasn't JvR spending time in the metaphorical doghouse? There’s an argument to be made that, unlike the other two, it wouldn’t have helped van Riemsdyk.

Ok, friends. Get ready for a metaphor where I call James van Riemsdyk a tool and try to make that sound ok.

When I look at JvR I think of the following saying, “A tool is only as good as the person using it.” It's been shown time and time again that, when used correctly, van Riemsdyk can score some damn goals. But he's most effective at the net, parked in front, using his big body and solid hands to receive passes and tip pucks into the net. It was clear last year that Marner was the driving force behind that Bozak line. His creativity and playmaking ability turned him into a craftsman who could use JvR to his fullest potential. While this metaphor also exists to highlight JvR's limitations (he's never going to drive a line or really hold his own with slumping linemates) it aims to show why I think it made sense to leave JvR higher in the lineup while shifting Marner and Bozak around until they got their groove back.

And lucky us, it seems like they're ready to start making art again.

Anyway, overtime: Mitch Marner stops Pastrnak from shooting on Freddie. Mitch Marner strips Pastrnak of the puck and creates a 3-on-2 rush up the ice. Mitch Marner drops his shoulder to fake a shot and pull both defenders towards the center of the ice. Mitch Marner then passes to Bozak, who slides it to Marleau for the game winner. Now watch it 100 more times to absorb its greatness.

Statistics and overviews courtesy of hockeyviz.com, corsica.hockey, hockeystats.ca, and hockey-reference.com.

[plmstest2-blog]

Wild @ Leafs - Game 17 - Nov.8.2017

KEY NARRATIVES

Toronto Maple Leafs (9-7-0) vs Minnesota Wild (5-6-2)

Tonight the Leafs face off against the Minnesota Wild who should be more of a challenge than their record would imply. The beginning of the season held a few injuries to key players in Minnesota's lineup and they were definitely hurting for help. Zach Parise is still out, but with their lineup even partially restored, they're likely a quietly good team. They don't have any flashy superstars but instead are good by committee with no gaping holes in their team.

Speaking of the injury bug, it seems highly likely that Auston Matthews will miss his first ever NHL game tonight. On Monday, Kasperi Kapanen was sent back down to the minors and Frederik Gauthier, a center, was called up. Maybe I'm deluded or overly optimistic, but I don't think it's necessarily a bad thing if Matthews sits this one out. Considering he had the same injury/issue on Monday and he played as well as he did, it must not be that deeply serious. So if there's a game to sit out to heal it's this one, as they play back-to-back, home-and-home games against Boston on Friday and Saturday. It's good to remember that it's only November, and it's only more fortunate if the Leafs' have found the one hockey player (or smart enough staff) that's going to think long-term and not break Matthews before Christmas.

So who's this call-up then? It was summed up succinctly in September by Jason Bourne who did an in-depth piece on Gauthier for the Athletic (yes, it's worth the price of admission).

"Gauthier was drafted 21st overall in the 2013 draft, and from the outside, he all-too-perfectly symbolized the failings of the previous regime. He was a huge man with limited offensive upside, another “coke machine” that many Leafs fans had identified as the passion — and weak spot — of a front office who prioritized size and strength over speed and skill."

The Goat, as he is so nicknamed (obviously based on his name, but also a rather sarcastic reference to G.O.A.T, meaning Greatest of All Time), doesn't really deserve all the crap he’s received over the years. Every teammate, every coach, cannot say anything but good things about his character -- as far as anyone's heard, he's simply a kind, hardworking human being. A Gentle Giant. The thesis of this piece claimed that Gauthier is "not your punchline", both for his hard work and his amazing recovery from a catastrophic leg injury last year. He wasn't even supposed to see his first AHL game until later this month, and yet he was ready to go by the first game.

While it's definitely true that he has limited offensive upside (he only has three shotsin the AHL so far this season) the argument for calling him up is the defense side of his game, which they may deed if they should Matthews be out more than one game. According to his coaches he's a solid shutdown guy, and considering the Leafs don't have trouble scoring, I could see the logic there.

EDIT: It's confirmed Matthews will sit out against the Minnesota Wild. Tonight the centers will be Kadri, Marleau (back at center after playing Monday on the wing), Bozak, and Moore. Both Marner and Bozak look like they're moving back up the lineup onto the second or third line, with JvR back on the Left Wing (the boys are back in town). The hole left by Matthews will definitely be felt but honestly, this might be a solid spark to rally around for the rest of the team.

Some Key Numbers

9 - Mikko Koivu - Center 20 - Ryan Suter - Defenseman 12 - Eric Staal - Center 42 - Jared Spurgeon - Defenseman 64 - Mikael Granlund - Right Wing 7 - Matt Cullen - Center

THE HIGHLIGHTS

THE POST GAME

Score: W 4-2

Two weakened teams faced off on Wednesday night, resulting in a frustrating loss... for the Minnesota Wild. Unlike the Wild, who have had some time build chemistry without Parise, over the past year the Leafs have had unprecedented luck in the injury department. Rielly was the biggest loss last year, out for about two weeks, followed by Marner, who missed five games.

Not bad. Not bad.

It was unlikely their luck would hold for a second year. Still, what is this team without Matthews? They're a team that won a game at least, even if they got run roughshod doing it. They only had a CF% of 41.57 at fives. While they were never behind like the Wild were for a good portion of the game, it wasn't nearly enough to justify the massive shot differential.

But thankfully Freddie Andersen bailed them out hard on this one. Unfortunately, there was one terrifying instance in the final moments of the game where it seemed he may have been injured, too. Sliding across the net, his blocker caught a post and almost seemed like it hyperextended his shoulder. He appeared to be in some pain but after a commercial break was back in net. He was not at practice the morning after the game but hasn't been listed on injured reserve or given any other indication of lingering effects. We'll get more news closer to the game against Boston on Friday.

One last note, Morgan Rielly was a star in this game, as much as he has been this entire season. His assist on Kadri's goal (which really should be the other way around as there's no better definition of "assist" than Kadri's contribution to that goal) brings Rielly to 13 points so far this season. This ties him for 5th most points for a defenseman league-wide. Based on his average Time on Ice (20.95) and current points per 60 (2.19) in all situations, it also puts Rielly on a 62.7 point pace for the season.

Once I calculated these wild numbers (for a defenseman), I immediately went to go look at his sh% to see how much regression we might expect. Mo is currently sitting at a 4.9% success rate on his shots. We're used to seeing league-wide shooting percentages average out at around 9%, but considering how many more forwards than defensemen there are in the league, I wanted to see where the average sat for defensemen specifically. Based on blueliners who've played more than 500 minutes in a season, the annual average shooting percentage for an NHL defenseman has ranged from 4.5-4.9% over the past five years.

Considering this average doesn't justinclude offensive defensemen like Rielly, Gardiner, Letang, Burns, etc. but also includes your defensive pylons and token penalty killers, Rielly has been successful in a shockingly average amount of his shots on goal. What does this all mean? It means that there's a decent chance that Rielly could keep scoring like he has been. Assuming he keeps getting this much time on the powerplay and continues to look as good as he has, this could easily end up being a career year for Rielly.

Stats and lineups courtesy of Corsica.hockey, hockey-reference.com, hockeystats.ca and Daily Faceoff.

[plmstest2-blog]

Knights @ Leafs - Game 16 - 11.06.17

KEY NARRATIVES

Toronto Maple Leafs (8-7-0) vs Vegas Golden Knights (9-4-0)

Tonight the Leafs finally return home to faceoff against the youngest team in the league, the Vegas Golden Knights. Now, if VGK followed any sort of logic, a brand new expansion team would be just the team I'd want the Leafs playing after this road-trip skid.

Unfortunately, the Golden Knights have had some sort of voodoo-magic on their side since the beginning of the season. It's genuinely mind-boggling, as there's no world in which this team should be good. The following were the basic rules for the 2017 NHL expansion draft:

There are two options for Protected Lists: a) Seven skaters, three defensemen, one goaltender b) Eight skaters (forwards/defensemen), one goaltender

Skaters on the first or second year professional players are exempt from the draft (this rule was particularly beneficial to Toronto, due to the fact that 3+ of their best players were rookies last year) as are all unsigned draft picks.

The result of this is Vegas being able to draft an entire team of third line forwards and second pairing defensemen. They also should have been able to squeeze a bunch of draft picks out of every team for further concessions, especially considering they don't actually want to be /that/ good this year.

Really it is in Vegas' best long-term interest to finish low in the standings this year, as long as they aren't so bad they sour a young fanbase. The best way to build a good team from the ground up is to amass a bunch of picks and tank for high ones until you get a franchise player (need for depth, late-career free agency, and prohibitively high costs of UFAs stop expansion teams from signing franchise players and being good right away, like they might in the NFL - the draft is the only surefire way to acquire that kind of talent).

So what did Vegas do? Clearly, they thought, "There's high demand for defensemen, especially right-handed ones. People will give us stuff for those!" So Vegas drafted so many defensemen that they barely had twelve forwards in which to ice. "They'll fix it over the summer," we thought.

Then they... didn't.

Without writing an entire essay on the weird roster management of VGK, the point of all of this is that Vegas is a bad team. No two ways about it, on paper they're just so, so terrible.

Oh! And they're on their fourth goalie of the year and in the middle of one of the strangest netminder situations possible. They started the year with true first-string goalie Marc Andre Fleury (acquired from Pittsburgh), backed by Calvin Pickard (acquired from the historically terrible Avalanche team). Then Boston put Malcolm Subban on waivers. In a move that surprised many, Vegas claimed him and instead of flipping him later in the season as expected, they put Pickard on waivers. Pickard cleared only to be traded to, yours truly, the Leafs (trading for him instead of claiming Pickard allowed him to be directly sent to the AHL).

Only days after the Pickard trade, Fleury got a concussion and Subban had to step up to the plate. He then promptly got a lower-body injury after only a few games. Dansk, who'd been called up as backup, then went in and honestly I don't even know what his injury was but he's gone now, too. So now Vegas' goalie tandem is Maxime Lagacé (24) and Dylan Ferguson (19) who, before this season, had recorded zero (0) NHL starts combined.

Also, ironically, Kasimir Kaskisuo was loaned from the Leafs' AHL team to Vegas', because VGK was so low on goalies and the Leafs currently have a plethora of them... after they acquired Pickard from Vegas.

So, with that they're even more awful.

They're also currently the third best team in the Western Conference.

While they have played a number of teams in bad luck tailspins of their own (they've played the Coyotes twice, who haven't been able to buy a win), as well as playing a seven-game homestand, even with their training-wheels start they're doing much better than expected. So, even though this should be a relatively stress-free night, it would be careless to take the Golden Knights too lightly.

Uhg. I feel dirty even writing that sentence.

Also - the worst has happened, everyone's nightmare come true. This morning Auston Matthews left the ice after only 7 minutes of practice. Babcock said after practice that he has "some soreness" and that he'll be a game-time decision.

It's all fine.

Some Key Numbers

18 - James Neal - Right Wing 13 - Brendan Leipsic - Left Wing 27 - Shea Theodore - Defenseman

THE HIGHLIGHTS

THE POST GAME

Score: SO W 4-3

It would be easy to come into this game review with a list of things the Leafs did wrong but, you know what, even the ugly ones count for two points -- and the Leafs badly needed a win. It was also a dang good thing that Auston Matthews was in the lineup. The question of what this team would look like if he sustained an injury needs to be answered at some point, but I'm personally not ready for that yet. Even though he apparently wasn't at a 100%, he looked like his usual demigod-like self all night. 

I'll also give it to Vegas: they're much better than the sum of their parts. While I still think the bubble is going to pop, Vegas seemed to focus on speed in their picks and that is clearly making up for a lot of perceived deficits. In the first period of the game, I was shocked at just how aggressive they were, on the forecheck, rushing puck carriers, even on the penalty kill. It felt a lot like when a hiker encounters a bear in the forest. As he was taught, the hiker puts his hands above his head and screams at the bear. The bear is definitely the stronger creature here, but he's so thrown off by the screaming little man he moves back. 

The Leafs were moving back a bit, especially through the second period.

Possession was fairly close throughout the game, with the Knights coming out slightly on top at 5v5 (though the Leafs were slightly ahead of the whole game when adjusted as they never trailed in this game). The Knights did come out significantly on top in xGF which potentially speaks to the value of a solid goalie. Not that both goalies didn't have one or two they should have had (looking at you Vegas' third goal).

In spite of falling down on the goal that tied the game up, Andersen more than made up for that in overtime, blocking a number of heart-stopping shots from Vegas and then slamming the door in their faces in the shootout.

Nazem Kadri (43) has been quiet the past couple games but tonight we saw the guy who's actually on a forty-one goal pace for the season. He snapped a pointless streak and got two goals tonight. He also drew a great high sticking penalty which technically gives him a Nazem Kadri Hat Trick.

Finally, Mitch Marner got the only shootout goal, winning the game for the Leafs. While that one won't go on his scoresheet, we've been seeing more and more of the Mitch we saw last year. He's clearly building up the confidence to employ all the hoppin' and danglin' he was so known for last year.

Anderson had a great quote on Mouse's shootout moves: "You have to have good hands for that, but you have to have some ice through your veins to pull that off." (from @kristin_shilton)

Collecting a shootout winner and an assist on the night certainly won't hurt his resurfacing swagger.

Speaking of good quotes, I thought Babcock summed up this game pretty well when he talked to the press: "Any time you've been in a bad spell it's usually ugly when you come out of it, but it's a win."

So yeah, for now, I'll take a gorgeous, panicked sliding block from Rielly and our two points.

Now they just have to get that momentum rolling again.

Statistics courtesy of Hockey-reference.com and Corsica.hockey.

[plmstest2-blog]

Leafs @ Blues - Game 15 - 11.04.17

KEY NARRATIVES

Toronto Maple Leafs (8-6-0) vs St. Louis Blues (10-3-1)

The Leafs have faced a couple of the league's repeat "should-be-good" teams. The Blues are annual disappointments as well, except on a significantly higher tier. They often quietly finish near the top of the standings in the regular season, but rarely make waves in the playoffs. They've only even made the Conference Final once in the past six season, in spite of making it into the post-season each year. Currently, they're only trailing the Kings in the standings in the West, and not by much.

The Blues are another team that's topping the list in PDO right now, but what's interesting is where they're getting the boost, not from a hot goalie or a bunch of puck luck, but instead, both shooting percentage and save percentage are just slightly above average. It's a sign that they're not bound to regress significantly in either category and therefore that much scarier of a team.

They've got a number of dominant players, but their flashiest piece is Vladimir Tarasenko, a Russian sniper who's often in talks for the Lady Byng Trophy (sportsmanship award). He's a great example of one of my favorite things about hockey, which is its global nature. Even players who stay with a team their whole career often play with their International Teams at least once a year. Teammates become temporary foes, foes become allies, and therefore there are many unique relationships based on country, juniors history, etc, throughout the league. Tarasenko will often be found at center ice during warmups, chatting to fellow Russians on the other team.

Gif Source

Also, he has a really cute baby.

Gif Source

I digress. The important thing is that he's as dangerous as he is likable.

Jaden Schwartz has also come out of the gate hot, with 17 points in his first fourteen games.

There are few unsurprising but pleasant lineup shifts tonight in the ongoing optimization project that Babcock has been conducting. Tonight’s lineup basically a mix of the forward and defender groups from the last two games, with Kapanen staying in, and Carrick coming back in for Polak.

Kapanen is staying in with Kadri and Komarov. This is great to see. It shows that even with the loss against the Kings, Kapanen's hard work (and good numbers) paid off.

The defensive lines will once again have Carrick paired with Gardiner and push Zaitsev to the third pairing, and preserve the top pairing of Rielly and Hainsey.

While things definitely need to shift and the Leafs need to figure a few things out, there are some interesting numbers at play here. The Matthews line has clearly been carrying this team but, as pointed out by @ziggy_14 on Twitter, the team has had an average Save Percentage of only 86.6 (league average is usually around ~91%) when the Matthews line isn't on the ice at 5v5. In contrast, from @DylanFremlin, Auston Matthews has a sv% behind him of .973 and a staggering PDO of 111.

With these numbers, you can expect things to balance out into at least a more realistic spread as the season goes on, with the rest of the lines seeing less bad luck/better goaltending and Matthews hot play leveling into a (likely still high) but more sustainable level.

Key Numbers

91 - Vladimir Tarasenko - Right Wing 27 - Alex Pietrangelo - Defenseman - Captain 17 - Jaden Schwartz - Left Wing 55 - Colton Parakyo - Defenseman

THE HIGHLIGHTS

THE POST GAME

Score: L 4-6

Ouch. This was a rough one. To be frank, no one group had a particularly good night. Most of the forwards were sloppy, the defense made some serious mistakes, and even Freddie should have had one or two of those goals but was out of position. While the score obscures how poorly the Leafs played, what's funny is that the score should have been only four for St. Louis. In the third period, there was a holding penalty that went uncalled when the Blues were on the powerplay, and if not that one, it at least should have only been five for, due to a blatant slash to Andersen's head right before the sixth goal went in.

I mean, accidental or not, that was a lumberjack level swing to Freddie's mask that sends him crashing to the ground. I can't believe they didn’t even pull him for concussion spotting let alone not call a penalty. What was even stranger, Mike Babcock didn't call for a review of the goal. There's some confusion around this, whether or not he'd already used a timeout and couldn't call for a review (there wasn't one on the scoresheet after the game though), or the video coaches missed it, or if he was sending a message to the team. No matter what of the potential scenarios actually played out, there never should have been a sixth goal in this game.

While we're making concessions, I'll give the Leafs one more excuse: It is the fourth road game in six days. A good team should be able to hold it together in conditions like that, but it's not like they fell down in optimum playing conditions.

Now back to the bad: the Rielly and Hainsey pairing got absolutely rolled, with CF% of 33.33 and 28.57. Hainsey finished the night with a goal differential of minus three.

Nylander also got himself put in the doghouse for the first time this season and was moved off of the Matthews line mid-game. After blowing his coverage a couple times, he was bounced around a few other lines while Brown took his spot on the top line -- putting the defensively responsible Connor Brown, who was also a successful rookie last year but was overshadowed by the potentially elite talent of Matthews, Marner, and Nylander, in other young players' spots seems to be Babcock's go to move to send a message about responsibility and hard work. I don't know how I'd feel about that if I were Brownie, but at least it's easier for the audience to interpret.

There were a couple good flashes in this game though. Connor Carrick had a CF% of 61.54 and somehow had a plus-four night, which means that he was on the ice for every single Leafs goal and none of the goals against. Some of that had to be luck considering Gardiner, who he began the night paired with, had a minus-one. Still, it bodes well for my hopes that Carrick keeps his a spot in the lineup over Polak.

Speaking of weird numbers, Matt Martin had a three-point night. Yep, fourth line enforcer Matt Martin racked up three assists. With six points on the season, Martin has currently scored two-thirds of his entire point total from last season.

The rest of that line performed solidly. Bozak scored two goals, and together the line had six points on the night.

Considering the weird mix of positives and negatives from this game, it will be really interesting to see what the lines look like come Monday against the Vegas Golden Knights. At the very least I hope they give these lines another shot, because I think they were at least headed in the right direction.

In my wildest dreams? I like the idea of Matthews and Nylander spending some time apart. I like the idea of him on Kadri or Marleau's wing - or hell, give him a chance at center which is where we'd expect him to be in the future state of this team.

For me, the other half of this move would involve putting Marner up next to Matthews, which I think could benefit him greatly. He's had some time to be the driving force and build confidence on the fourth line, but I think Marner is still trying to do too much. He's been the driving force on his lines (extra difficult from the wing) since he's established himself on this team, and there's a possibility that playing on a line with a clear driver and superstar, at least for a stretch, would allow him to settle into his own game again.

Statistics courtesy of Corsica.Hockey and Hockey-reference.com.

[plmstest2-blog]

Leafs @ Kings - Game 14 - 11.02.17

KEY NARRATIVES

Toronto Maple Leafs (8-5-0) vs Los Angeles Kings (9-2-1)

Season VS Record: 1-0 Leafs

The Leafs face off against the Los Angeles Kings on a Thursday night, the second of a back to back and the first repeat faceoff of the season. The Leafs took a hard-won two points from the Kings on home ice a couple weeks ago, which was notably one of the Kings only two regulation losses this season. L.A. is currently topping the Western Conference and are probably the last team the Leafs' want to be facing on the second night of a road back-to-back.

On the Kings' hot start, it's at least notable that they currently have the fourth highest PDO in the league (PDO = shooting % + save %, and is used as a metric to judge "luck" and predict regression). At a PDO of 102.5, though, they're not unsustainably high for this time in the season, however. What's more interesting, I believe, is the shooting percentage side of the equation. As discussed at length in my last report against the Kings, the strategy implemented by the Kings in the past decade results in a team that's extremely dominant in possession but has always created a side effect of a low shooting percentage.

While it's still early in the year, we're getting close to the time in the season where we can stop saying that and start making some claims. The Kings are currently at a 9.20% success rate on shots which is solidly at or even slightly above league average which is significant considering they've historically been in the bottom five. While there's still time for regression, the Kings had a coaching change recently, and at the beginning of the season claimed they were making a concerted effort to up that shot success rate. What will be interesting to see, is if they can still maintain dominant possession numbers while doing so (currently they're only middle of the pack in CF% for the season). If they can get those possession numbers closer to their historic levels, that's a terrifying team.

Another terrifying prospect is a McElhinney start this evening - both for us and for him. With Sparks, who's been knocking at the door in the past year or so, Pickard recently acquired from Vegas, and even young Kasimir Kaskisuo starting the year strong, the Leafs' unique goaltender depth is going to make it difficult for McElhinney to keep his job long term. The thirty-four-year-old goalie is really only keeping his job pending a showing bad enough to justify putting him on waivers. The thing is, if he's performing alright in his very limited starts, and Freddie isn't struggling to the point of having to be pulled regularly, then the Leafs don't really want to risk putting him through waivers and losing him for nothing to bring up a better backup (likely Pickard), but that's a clear option I doubt the Leafs would hesitate to take if he has a bad enough game.

We also have a couple shifts in the lineup.

The Neutral/Good: with Babcock thankfully leaving Marleau at center and leaving a spot up for the grabs on the wing, Kasperi Kapanen gets his shot. This bumps Leivo back to the pressbox. Kapanen will slot in next to Kadri and Komarov on the "shutdown line". While I would have to do a lot more research on Kapanen vs Leivo to state anything definitively, what I'll say now is that Kapanen is younger, more favored by Babcock, and feels like he has more upside. Also, the fact that he can play on both the power play and the penalty kill means he has a better shot than Leivo at holding a long-term spot on this team with a good showing.

The Bad: Polak is back. Ironically the first time I typed that was against the Kings on October 23rd. Polak will slot in next to Borgman on the third pairing and bump Zaitsev back up next to Gardiner. Carrick sits.

THE HIGHLIGHTS

THE POST GAME

SCORE: L 3-5

Well... that was not ideal. I honestly don't even know how to talk about this showing as if it were a single game. It felt like two 30 minute games played back to back.

The Kings score on McElhinney three times in the first period and follow it up with two more in the second. It's 5-0 and I'm settling my bar tab, thinking I can make it home to sad-watch the last period of the game in bed.

And then something weird happens. Auston Matthews gets a penalty shot on an extremely debatable call - and that's coming from a fan of the team that benefitted it. Validity aside, Matthews roofs it. Rielly follows up with a great goal only a few minutes later.

"I'll get you another drink," says my lovely bartender.

The Leafs, who started the game slow and sloppy, are on fire the entire back half of the game. They put another one in it's 5-3 with over ten minutes left in the game. We've seen the Leafs score a pair in ten before, and for those ten minutes, they played so well it felt like it could happen.

Unfortunately, it didn't. Yet, considering the Leafs had a 7-0 game against the Kings last year, and they looked dangerously close to a repeat of that in the first half of this game, they end the night with a score that at least won’t be embarrassing to look back on. The Bozak fourth line looked good again, and Kasperi Kapanen ended the night with a team-leading CF% of 72.22. If there was any way to earn a spot on this team while losing a game, that's how ya do it.

The Leafs ended the night with a 5v5 Corsi For Percentage of 59.46. In a normal or winning game that would be phenomenal, but considering the conditions of this game, it's a fantastic example of how Scoring Effects work. We often look at Shots on Goal (basic NHL metric) or Corsi (shots on goal, misses, and blocked shots) to tell which team "played better" regardless of the final score. This can get dicey, though, when one team has a lead the entire game. Naturally, once a team has a lead (especially a multi-goal lead), they’ll switch to defensive tactics and shoot less. It seems pretty obvious, but over time it's easy to forget and obscure results (like the Oilers this year, who had great CF% but were literally trailing so often it could barely be adjusted for). Below are two graphs from Corsica Hockey's generated game report. The first one shows the "raw" Corsi For Events (SOG, Misses, BLKs). Filled in dots are goals.

As you can see, the Kings basically stopped shooting after the fifth goal, and understandably so.

The next chart is "adjusted". This accounts for a couple of things, but the primary effect here is scoring. It shows how this was really the Kings game the whole time. While the Leafs played well in the back half, there’s no proving that if the Leafs’ had tied it up or gotten closer, then the Kings wouldn’t have turned on the Jets again. 

If only the Leafs could come out of the gate as composed as they were in teh back half of this game, they could quickly become one of the scariest teams in the league.

They'll have to, if they want to beat St. Louis, who is currently only behind the Kings themselves in the West.

Statistics courtesy of Hockey-reference.com, Corsica.hockey, and naturalstattrick.com (particular shoutout to NST's WOWY stats and new Line Tool).

[plmstest2-blog]

Leafs @ Ducks - Game 13 - 11.01.17

KEY NARRATIVES

Toronto Maple Leafs (7-5-0) vs Anaheim Ducks (6-4-1)

Tonight the Leafs face off against the Ducks in the second of four road games that includes the infamous California Roadtrip. The Ducks made it to the conference final last year, knocking out McDavid's Oilers before losing out to the Nashville Predators. Year over year they've been dangerous, including a Stanley Cup win in 2007 -- though honestly, it feels less like a perennial great and more like a recurring video game boss you have to beat. Maybe it came with the loss of the "Mighty" in their title, but they've felt distinctly less Underdog Hero and more Disney Bully in the past decade or so. They play a heavy, physical game that's sure to keep the Leafs on their toes between the skill of the Sharks and the maddening system of the Kings.

Yet, if there's any time for the Leafs to beat the Ducks, it's now. Every year a few teams will attract an injury bug which critically riddles their lineup. In the Ducks' case, they're currently missing their top two centers in Ryan Getzlaf and Ryan Kesler, as well as first pairing defenseman Cam Fowler. Last week I used a wounded buffalo to describe my misconception about the Sharks -- it's a lot more appropriate here.

More good news for the Leafs: we have changes to the line-up. I didn't get everything I wanted for Christmas, but it's honestly much closer to the optimal lineup than I expected. The lines are as follows for the forwards (notable/changes in caps):

Hyman - Matthews - Nylander Komarov - Kadri - LEIVO JvR - MARLEAU - BROWN Martin - BOZAK - MARNER

And for the blueline:

Reilly - Hainsey Gardiner - CARRICK Borgman - ZAITSEV

Hoo-boy, that's a lot of change. Let's break this down:

Starting with Marleau, as his position has ripple effects through the rest of the lineup. Tonight Patty will begin the night at center. Though he has played a lot of center over his years with the Sharks, the Leafs have been very clear that they acquired him to play on the wing. There have been some analyses that show Marleau's shooting percentage drops when he plays center, but having moved him to the middle twice to cover for an underperforming Bozak, it makes sense the Leafs are finally willing to deviate from their original plan. I personally love this move. I don't think the Leafs need to score that many more goals than they did last year, so if the price for having depth at center and scoring potential through the fourth line is losing out on a few Marleau finishes, I think that's worth it.

On his wings will be James van Riemsdyk and Connor Brown. JvR hasn't often played away from Bozak, and with the stuttering happening through the entire JvR-Bozak-Marner line, I think it's a good idea to give JvR some time away from Bozak to reset, just like they did with Marner.

Slotting Marleau in at third line center means pushing Bozak to the fourth line. It's a funny thing seeing him there, as there was once a time when Bozak was the Leafs' first line center, and often maligned for that fact. He's an interesting character to look at, in the history of the Leafs, currently the player who has spent the most time with the team of anyone on the current roster. He was signed in 2009 to a very different Leafs team. Imagine Bozak in Auston Matthews’ role, except instead of a heralded first overall pick, Auston was an undrafted free agent coming out of college at twenty-three. When you look at Bozak in his actual context, he's been nothing but a success story for the Leafs, even if he couldn’t single handedly save the franchise.

He seems to have lost his way a little bit this year, and I really don't believe that putting him on the fourth line (Marner, too) is a punishment. When he starts tonight, Tyler Bozak will probably the best fourth line center in the league. That's not a bad place to be in for a player who's having confidence issues.

So, if they were just "punishing" Bozak, I would have expected to see Brown next to him, who's defensive responsibility would be expected to mitigate a weak Bozak.

Instead, Marner and Martin bracket Bozak for the night. While I would have liked to see a full skill lineup by replacing Martin with Kasperi Kapanen, things could be much worse.

And on Martin: Marner's "fourth line demotion" has often been simply looked at in the context of his game and development. Yet, notably, only when Marner is on the ice with Martin has the fourth liner been a positive possession player. He should only be set up for even more success with Bozak and the Mouse on his line, especially against a depleted Ducks' lesser lines.

Then we have Leivo up with Kadri and Komarov. We talked about Leivo enough recently that I'll simply say I'm happy he's not just in the lineup but being given a spot in the top nine where he has a real opportunity to prove he deserves a permanent spot on this team.

Onto the defense! Roman Polak is out and Connor Carrick is back in. Huzzah! He's not on the third pairing either, but up next to Gardiner who he spent a lot of time with last year and saw success.

Morgan Reilly and Ron Hainsey are together as well. While many were hesitant about trading Hunwick for Hainsey over the summer, assuming it was a "same but older" trade, the 36-year-old vet has been extremely solid next to Reilly since the start of the season, his steadiness allowing Mo to be creative and jump up on the rush again.

Zaitsev is down on the third pairing next to Borgman, which isn't so much a demotion as management of his time on ice (TOI). Zaitsev is used heavily on the Leafs penalty kill and has had the second highest average TOI of Leafs defensemen this season, which is a lot considering he's only a sophomore with the team. With Polak out, his heavy PK usage isn't likely to change and so slotting him in on the third pairing with less even strength ice time reduces the risk of overuse and burnout.

Lastly, it'll be a big night for Frederik Andersen, who was traded to the Leafs before the 2016-2017 season. This is actually the first time since then that Freddie has played at the Honda Center.

Some Key Numbers

????? all their good players are gone. Ok, shout out to Rickard Rakell (67) who is a good center and is doing good things for my fantasy team.

THE HIGHLIGHTS

THE POST GAME

Score: W 3-2

The Leafs came out of the gate hot on this one, barring a penalty to Zaitsev in the beginning of the game (this would be a theme of the night), they seemed to dominate the first period. They scored the first goal, a beautiful redirect from Brown (28) from a JvR pass (25), and then in true leafs fashion, they then let in a goal seconds later and go into the second tied 1-1.

While shot numbers evened out after the first period, and possession was skewed to even by the number of power plays the Ducks received (four to the Leafs' two), adjusted to five-on-five, the leafs out-possessed the Ducks with a CF% of 56.47. Even more staggering was how much more dangerous the Leafs’ shots were on top of the quantity. By the end of the game, they had an Expected Goals For % of 72.12. As touched on before, Expected Goals takes into account the historic likelihood of the type/location of a shot to go in the net. Eg. say a tip-in from the right side of the net goes in 20% of the time. That's worth .2 Expected Goals. So at the end of the game, at five-on-five, the Leafs were expected to score 2.25 goals and the Ducks only .87.

While this is a fantastic metric on which to judge "how good" this Leafs' team was against the Ducks, the numbers were much closer when you include the PP/PK time (Leafs - 2.73 xGF, Ducks - 2.3 xGF), so it's lucky the Leafs penalty kill has been looking good this year (currently 8th in the league) and successfully killed off all four of the Ducks' powerplays.

The Leafs picked it up again in the third period, with Marleau scoring what would be the game-winning goal - the 100th of Patty's career. This line was on fire and ended the night with fantastic possession numbers, and it looks like we might not have to worry about Marleau being able to score at center. With how well this experiment went, I sincerely hope they continue this trial. With the Leafs so deep on the wing it would be easy to fill Patty's old spot (with Kapanen/Leivo) and it would give the Leafs perhaps the best center depth in the entire league.

The only line with better possession numbers was actually Bozak's fourth line, which looked absolutely fantastic. Marner looked wild and unpredictable but more in a good way than a bad way. See below:

Gif Source

Martin had a fantastic CF% of 76.26, even if he didn't look particularly dangerous, and Bozak probably had his best game of the year. He looked great and I honestly hope they give this line at least one more go before shifting things around again, just to build confidence.

Rielly and Hainsey also looked good, with the latter tallying two assists. This surfaced some interesting statistics. With these two assists, Hainsey has eight points this year, which is the most of any defensemen league-wide at the moment. (I mean, really? Ron Hainsey?? You go, dude.)

Interestingly, it actually wasn't a great night for the Matthews line, who were severely out-possessed and didn't get on the board once. Considering their track record, this doesn't really set off any red flags, but at this point is just evidence of an off night.

The Kadri line got run over a bit as well, and Leivo looked alright but the numbers didn’t match. They were also on the ice for the only goal against. While I still like this line, due to Leivo's fragile grasp on a job on this Leafs team, it doesn't bode well for him.

In the end, Komarov nets an empty netter to close the door on the Ducks and Freddie gets his first win in his old barn.

It'll be exciting to see how the success of this lineup effects decisions against the Kings on Thursday night.

Statistics from Naturalstattrick.com, Corsica.hockey, and Hockey-reference.com. Signing information from CapFriendly.com.

[plmstest2-blog]

Leafs @ Sharks - Game 12 - 10.30.17

KEY NARRATIVES

Toronto Maple Leafs (7-4-0) vs San Jose Sharks (5-5-0)

The biggest story going into tonight is Patrick Marleau's return to San Jose. As mentioned in the first preview, Patty spent his entire career up to this season in San Jose. The Center/Winger was drafted second overall by a young Sharks team in 1997, picked just after Joe Thornton who would end up traded to and sharing most of Marleau's time and success in San Jose.

While Marleau's track record would earn him anything from reverence to devotion on any team, the fact that the Sharks had only existed for six years before they drafted Patty means he's a genuine cornerstone of the team's history. He holds the franchise records for Games Played, Goals, Points, Powerplay Goals, Shorthanded Goals, Shots, as well as a number of other more granular records. While Joe Thornton is still with the team, at 38 himself, it seems unlikely that anyone will be overtaking Marleau anytime soon.

Tonight is also the first game in the often dreaded California Road Trip. The way schedules break down for most Eastern teams results in one home and one away game against each Western Conference team. To reduce travel, the games against the three California teams are usually scheduled consecutively and in a short timeframe. For the Leafs that means the following lineup this year:

Monday - Sharks Wednesday - Ducks Thursday - Kings

They also have a game on Saint Louis' home ice on Saturday which will bring them to four games in six days. It's a brutal schedule against teams that aren't easy to beat on a good day, let alone on their own turf while you're traveling. It's also particularly scary considering the Leafs have lost three of their last four games. It would be nice if these kids could have gathered up a couple cushion points on that three-game homestand they just completed, but hey sometimes you just wanna play on expert mode.

Don't screw it up.

In more frightening news, in spite of Josh Leivo's fairly brilliant performance on Saturday, which had him coming away with an assist and great underlying numbers, it appears that Babcock is planning on icing the same lineup he used at the beginning of the season. JvR and Matt Martin are both back in the lineup, Brown is back down on the fourth line, and Marner us up next to Bozak and JvR again. While there's no excuse not to play JvR if he's healthy, putting Matt Martin back after Leivo's showing sends a  conflicting message from a coach that keeps claiming "hard work is what gets you in the line-up" and yet not rewarding Leivo, who not just works hard but usually produces in every game he plays as a fill in.

If anything, Bozak is actually on the thinnest ice, though slightly more protected than the wingers due to the Leafs' comparatively smaller depth at center. Yet, we did see him bounced down to the fourth line and Marleau moved to center towards the end of the train-wreck against the Flyers. Even though the lines aren't reflecting it in this game, it will be interesting to see how the lineup looks throughout the week, with back-to-backs and travel giving all the more incentive to sit a player or two to keep the team fresh.

On a much more fun note, one thing a game against San Jose always delivers is the glorious play and beards of Joe Thornton and Brent Burns. Joe Thornton is, as mentioned above, the longtime former team and linemate of Patrick Marleau. His claim to fame, besides the beard, is a unique and deadly playmaking ability, which can be seen in his high Assist to Goal ratio, and the high goal totals of his lucky linemates.

On the other side of the ice, Brent Burns is one of the best offensive defensemen in the league, and last year's Norris Winner (best defenseman award). His forward-like ability to score makes him hard to judge as a pure defenseman, extremely fun to watch, and a slam dunk on your fantasy team.

While I will give you their numbers for identification, it's not particularly necessary. You can pick them out using the following aesthetic markers:

Thornton: Dead-eyed, Grey-bearded Man of the Sea Brent Burns: Toothless, Wild Pirate Captain

I’m just saying you wouldn’t be shocked to see either of them wielding cutlasses on the high seas.

Also This:

You're welcome... or I'm sorry... I'm not really sure but it's your problem now.

Some Key Numbers

19 - Joe* Thornton - Center 8 - Joe** Pavelski - Center 88 - Brent Burns - Defenseman 48 - Hertl - Center * - Big Joe ** - Little Joe

THE HIGHLIGHTS

THE POST GAME

Score: L 3-2

To begin, I was under two false assumptions going into this game. The first was that the time of the Sharks had ended and the age of their core and the loss of Marleau had transformed them into a wounded buffalo primed for the taking. This was completely false. Watching them play was shocking, and looking at their numbers after the game was even more so. That's a damn solid team.

My other false assumption was that the Maple Leafs were good at playing hockey.

Something's critically wrong here. While Matthews, Nylander, and Co. performed to their usual dazzling standard, watching them try to carry the rest of this team was like watching a pony try and carry a 500lb man. The fourth line was such a trainwreck that together they ended the game with a Corsi For percentage of zero. ZERO! Over three periods they took no shots while allowing the Sharks to fire sixteen at Freddie. They also took at least two penalties while drawing none.

Tyler Bozak, who's been having a rough go of it all season, was so bad in this game that Babcock benched him at the end of the third, pulling Marleau from Kadri's wing to have him center for JvR and Marner (which, side note: as much as they haven't wanted to play Marleau off the wing, I didn't hate him as center on the offensive second/third line). He moved Brown up to fill Marleau's spot and then only rolled three lines for about the last ten minutes of the game, resulting in the following top nine:

Hyman - Matthews - Nylander JvR - Marleau - Marner Komarov - Kadri - Brown

At first, you want to be mad at the players for underperforming as they have been. Except, ignoring the natural shutdown of a team’s offense when they have the lead in the final minutes, the Leafs dominated on those new lines the end of that game. If not for the empty netter, they would have tied this game up (not that they deserved to, but for the grace of Frederik Andersen, who had perhaps his best game of the season). The Matthews line, which was untouched, looked amazing. The Kadri line was on the ice for the would-have-been-tying goal. I thought Marner looked better than he has a lot of the season next to Marleau, and JvR almost tipped one in. They all looked dangerous, something the Leafs haven't looked consistently since the first few games of the season.

So if it's not most of the skater's fault, who's is it?

While I won't begin to even touch the idea that Babcock isn't a great coach, he's making some terrible decisions right now. There's a weird vibe in the room and on the ice, perhaps, but the biggest issue was that there were players in the lineup that are clear weak links that lead to a completely broken chain.

Matt Martin plays less than eight minutes a night. He’s not good enough for either powerplay time nor penalty kill minutes. You know who can play on the powerplay? Josh Leivo.

Kasperi Kapanen can play both.  

Yet they're both sitting in the press box night after night.

It's the same story on the blueline. Roman Polak has been a predictable disaster in the games he’s played, and the Sharks, like their namesake, smelled blood in the water and targeted him all night. He had the worst Corsi of any defenseman on the team (CF% 39.29) and currently has the 18th worst possession numbers in the entire league among defenseman who have played more than 50 minutes. Whether you're going by numbers or an eye test, that's not a player who's doing so well you can justify sitting Connor Carrick, who's much younger and fast enough to keep up with the rest of the team.

The point is that something has to change. The attitude displayed in the last few games needs to shift, but the biggest weakness on this team right now isn't youth, it isn't the defense, it's the roster decisions. What they're doing isn't working, and I believe the tide will at least temporarily turn on Babcock if changes aren't made to the lineup in the game against the Ducks on Wednesday. Considering it's the first night of a back to back, there's even less excuse not to weave at least Carrick and Leivo or Kapanen into the lineup, just to keep the rest of the team fresh. Ideally, I'd like to see them try out the lines they threw together at the end of the third period for a whole game, and ice the following fourth line:

Kapanen - Bozak - Leivo

Doubtful, but a girl can hope. At this point, if the same lineup is put out against the Ducks, the team approaches the quotable definition of insanity:

"Insanity is trying the same thing over and over and expecting a different result."

And it's time we get a different result.

Statistics and records pulled from Corsica.hockey and hockey-reference.com. 

[plmstest2-blog]

Testing another one

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[plmstest2-blog]

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