samuelerssonupdates

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SIXTH CAREER SHUTOUT FOR SAM ERSSON

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Sam Ersson stuns in new helmet.

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Elliotte Friedman

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*on opening night

Forwards

1st line: Michkov #39 - Couturier #14 - Foerster #71

Maksim Konstantinov / Len Redkoles / Jason Mowry (header image: Eliot J. Schechter)

Michkov on the first line is the only non-controversial choice here. It was hard to pick between Couturier and Frost, particularly since I believe that Michkov and Frost are going to work really well together this upcoming season. However, I think it's more than likely they want to pair Michkov with a more experienced player, particularly one like Sean Couturier, who is strong on faceoffs - can get Michkov the puck off the faceoff! - and a good defensive forward. Speaking of defensive forwards, I put one of the top defensive wingers in the NHL this season, Tyson Foerster, on the other wing. Foerster is a RW but since the Flyers seem to have completely done away with GAFing about what position wing their forwards play, I put him here and, in this post, will not GAF about L/RW either.

I think Foerster and Konecny would be the only two wingers the Flyers would consider opposite Michkov right now. Konecny for his own strong offensive upside was definitely a plus, but I went with Foerster because I think making sure that their two best defensive forwards are balancing out Michkov's high offense will be a high priority for Tortorella. Foerster also plays a pretty physical game where I don't believe Michkov does...? Someone correct me if I'm wrong there. I think that this top line is a well-balanced line between a vet, a strong winger, and a superstar.

Matvei Michkov, 19-22--41, 47 GP for HK Sochi

Sean Couturier, 11-27--38, 74 GP

Tyson Foerster, 20-13--33, 77 GP

2nd line: Konecny #11 - Frost #48 - Tippett #74

Len Redkoles / Len Redkoles / Dustin Satloff

Purely offensive line. Total fun. Morgan Frost's defensive play is very good, but he's a playmaker at heart and I would love to see this line get some time this season. I do eventually envision Frost and Michkov on a line regularly, as I think (as do many others) Frost's creativity will work well with Michkov's, but as far as opening night goes, I can't see them putting Frost and Michkov together too early.

Otherwise, these three would be fun to watch. In the 23-24 season Konecny assisted on 10 of Tippett's 28 goals, and 8 of Frost's 13 goals were assisted on by one of these two. All three were particularly productive during the Flyers' more dominant period in December 2023 and January 2024.

Travis Konecny, 33-35--68, 76 GP

Morgan Frost, 13-28--41, 71 GP

Owen Tippett, 28-25--53, 78 GP

3rd line: Brink #10 - Laughton #21 - Farabee #86

Randy Litzinger / Len Redkoles / Len Redkoles

Something of a double-veteran presence on this line for Brink, who, while he has NHL experience, spent a multitude of games last year playing for the Phantoms and watching from the press box at the behest of Tortorella. Farabee had a career year in 2023-24 but it didn't seem like it after he went long stretches of time without a goal, and Scott Laughton, the unofficial Flyers locker room DJ, had a much maligned 23-24 season. Not that this is SamuelErssonUpdates's Line for Lost Flyers, but it's a line of guys who you'd love to see do even better. Hoping that each of them move up the lineup at some point in the season, but on opening night this would be a safe bet.

Bobby Brink, 11-12--23, 57 GP

Scott Laughton, 13-26--39, 82 GP

Joel Farabee, 22-28--50, 82 GP

4th line: Cates #27 - Poehling #25 - Hathaway #19

Rich Graessle / Dustin Satloff / Jason Mowry

The easiest decision of the bunch, the Ph(C) line was one of the most cohesive and regular of last season. A solid 4th line of three guys that scored a little and hit a lot, (thank you, Garnet Hathaway) all three are signed to short-term contracts in Philly. It would, however, be nice to see Ryan Poehling Do The Thing again, and if he potentially moves up the lineup this year, maybe we'll see a burst in production from him.

Noah Cates, 6-12--18, 59 GP

Ryan Poehling, 11-17--28, 77 GP

Garnet Hathaway, 7-10--17, 82 GP

Defense

In general, all of these defensive pairings have been pretty well established; they were generally paired together last year, and the Flyers org shows no signs of switching them up unless something surprising happens.

1st pairing: Sanheim #6 - York #8

Len Redkoles / Len Redkoles

These two were the top defensive pairing last year, and they'll be our top defensive pairing this year. York played 82 games and had an average ice time of 22:37 per game; in one stunner of a game against the Canes, he played a whopping 29:01. Sanheim, meanwhile, logged 30% more assists than ever before in his career. These two will be back at it on your TV screen on October 11, I guarantee it.

Travis Sanheim: 10-34--44, 81 GP

Cam York: 10-20--30, 82 GP

2nd pairing: Seeler #24 - Drysdale #9

Jason Mowry / Len Redkoles

Generally considered to be the pairing on which Tortorella will have Drysdale, Seeler's defensive defense will be a solid counterpoint to Drysdale's offensive defense. Literally everyone in the world wants to see Drysdale do well on the Flyers – a healthy, more veteran player like Nick Seeler is probably the best option to round out his play.

Nick Seeler, 1-12--13, 71 GP

Jamie Drysdale, 3-7--10, 34 GP (1-4--5, ANA; 2-3--5, PHI)

3rd pairing: Zamula #5 - Johnson #77

Len Redkoles / Bill Wippert

With the return of Rasmus Ristolainen still unclear, and having seen none of the Flyers' prospects in the preseason, this is my current projected 3rd pairing. Both Zamula and Johnson re-signed short-term deals with the Flyers this offseason, and while Johnson will most likely remain a 7th d-man to be rotated in and out of the lineup, if Zamula makes the team out of camp I expect to see him as a regular fixture on the blue line.

Yegor Zamula, 5-16--21, 66 GP

Erik Johnson, 5-1--6, 67 GP (3-0--3, BUF; 2-1--3, PHI)

Goalies

Starting Goalie: Ersson #33

Len Redkoles

I don't know what anyone wants me to say here. this could not more clearly be my fucking guy. the blog is named after him. I am not taking questions at this ti- Stats? Buckle up, fuckers. I love stats and I'm incapable of being objective.

Sam Ersson is tied for the 4th-most winningest rookie goalie in Flyers history. At 24 years old, he has 5 shutouts in 63 career GP; the goalie he replaced had 6 shutouts in 227 GP. He had 4 this season alone, tying Igor Shesterkin (55 GP) and Pyotr Kochetkov (42 GP). With 23 wins in 51 GP, he won more games than Linus Ullmark (22 W in 40 GP), Alex Lyon (21 W in 44 GP), Tristan Jarry (19 W in 51 GP), and tied Jarry (29 years old with 8 seasons of NHL experience) and Thatcher Demko (28 years old with 7 seasons of NHL experience) for games played on the season. He had a 19-game streak of 3 GA or less where he went 12-4-2 (with one game where he entered in relief) and was one of the best goalies in shootouts in the league. In shootouts, only 4 goalies stopped more shots than him, yet he had a better shootout save percentage than all of them.

He had an .890 save percentage on the season. I don't care. The Flyers played 37 games from January 18th to the end of the season. Ersson played 32 of them, most of them with a backup that wasn't NHL caliber (Cal Petersen - sent down; Felix Sandstrom - sent down and traded in the offseason) or not ready to play in the NHL yet (Ivan Fedotov). Ersson was playing 86% of the Flyers' games at this point; for reference, the top 5 most played goalies in the league played:

Saros, 28 years old, 64 GP; 78% of NSH GP

Georgiev, 27 years old, 63 GP; 77% of COL GP

Hellebuyck, 30 years old, 60 GP; 73% of WPG GP

Skinner, 25 years old, 59 GP; 72% of EDM GP

Bobrovsky, 35 years old, 58 GP; 71% of FLA GP

So to recap, rookie Sam Ersson was starting games at a higher rate than 5 goalies that made the playoffs, including one that won the Stanley Cup, one that went to the Cup finals, and one that won the Vezina trophy. Forgive me if I don't take his .890 save percentage as the word of God and the final statement on his goaltending.

He's the starter next year. Tortorella and Briere have already made it clear; Ersson is their guy. Fortunately, he likes that.

Samuel Ersson, 23-19-7, .890 SV%, 2.82 GAA, 4 SO

Backup: Fedotov #82

Len Redkoles

Ivan Fedotov should be fun to watch this season. He was phenomenal in the KHL for years, and hopefully will be able to bring that this season with more time to get settled in the area, the team, and in his gear. If all goes well would expect to see him start 25-30 games. Like Ersson, his stats on the Flyers tell nothing of the full story, and next season will be a better showing of his capabilities between the pipes.

Flyers, 2023-24: 0-1-1, .811 SV%, 4.95 GAA, 0 SO

CSKA Moscow, 2023-24: 21-22, .914 SV%, 2.37 GAA, 4 SO

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Falun, Sweden

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Samuel Ersson starts today for Team Sweden's match against Kazakhstan! Game begins at 10:20 EST.

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Jesper Wallstedt / Filip Gustavsson / Samuel Ersson

New helmets for team Sweden

Ersson’s.

Source

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MAY 13, 2024 SWE V GER: 6-1 W

In today's game, Sam Ersson had:

15 saves

1 GA

.938 SV%

So, 16 shots on Ersson in comparison to 46 by the Swedes in front of him on Grubauer and Niederberger. It took the Germans six minutes of the second to even get one shot on him. Team Sweden is a very, very good team this year. Excited to see Ersson play more behind them and excited to see how far they can go in the championship.

(Image source – you have GOT to see this article title.)

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New helmet for Ersson.

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Sam Ersson is your starting goaltender in today's match vs Germany! Game starts at 2:20 EST.

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May 10, 2024 SWE v USA, 5-2

Sam Ersson did not play today, but did back up Filip Gustavsson, who had:

28 saves

2 GA

.933 SV%

The next game for Sweden will be on May 12, when they will face Poland at 2:20 EST.

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Sam Ersson will be backing up Filip Gustavsson in Team Sweden’s first match against the US today!

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It’s official: Samuel Ersson IS playing for Team Sweden in the IIHF Men’s World Championships!

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MAY 5, 2024 SE vs FI, 4-3 OTL

IN TODAY'S GAME, Sam Ersson had:

25 saves

3 GA

.892 SV%

2 saves in a 5-round shootout

In the final game of the Euro Hockey Tour between Sweden and Finland, Sam Ersson got the start in net for Sweden. After an almost entirely scoreless first period, Finland scored late on a deflection by Eemeli Suomi. The second period was all goals, with both Finland and Sweden scoring twice, and with 8:57 to go in the 3rd period, Sweden scored on the power play to take the game to overtime. Ersson had a few good saves in the shootout but was bested by Konsta Helenius, a 17-year-old forward whose name has come up more than a few times in 2024 draft discussions, often notably for the Flyers.

Though my assumption was that Ersson would be going to Worlds, I made that assumption by erroneously thinking that the Euro games roster would be the same as the Worlds – which I believe has still not been officially released. They may be waiting until after the results of these games to announce their choices. I've seen conflicting information on that front, but am rescinding my announcement of Ersson playing on the Worlds team based on two things: 1., the fact that the official Flyers page has not announced Ersson playing in Worlds – only Farabee. And 2., this post from Tre Kronor on Twitter, which partially reads "We are sharpening [the roster] further before the World Cup," which could mean training, or it could mean paring it down. Maybe I'm wrong again, and the Euro team really was the Worlds team the whole time. The IIHF website isn't displaying any team roster yet, announced or not, (like CA and USA) even though the first game of the tournament is literally in five days.

Helpful information, I know! Net zero knowledge gained. 😄👍

Here is the link to the tweet where the header image was posted, and here is the highlight reel from the Sweden-Finland game. A decent portion of it is unfortunately Ersson getting scored on, but they managed to include some good saves in there too.

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Ersson on the Trekronorse instagram gearing up for Worlds.

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April 15, 2024. The Metro playoff race is as follows.

NYI 92 pts (81 GP) - PLAYOFFS CLINCHED AT M3 WSH 89 pts (81 GP) - holds WC2 spot - most possible points is 91 DET 89 pts (81 GP) - most possible points is 91 PIT 88 pts (81 GP) - most possible points is 90 PHI 87 pts (81 GP) - most possible points is 89

If the Flyers want the playoffs, here's the only viable scenario:

Flyers have to beat Washington in regulation, 4.16.24

Montreal MUST beat Detroit in regulation, 4.16.24

Islanders MUST beat Pittsburgh in regulation, 4.17.24

That's it. May God be with us.

April 14, 2024. The Metro playoff race is as follows.

NYI (37-27-16) 90 pts (80 GP) - holds M3 spot - most possible points is 92 WSH (38-31-11) 87 pts (80 GP) - holds WC2 spot - most possible points is 91 DET (39-32-9) 87 pts (80 GP) - most possible points is 91 PHI (38-32-11) 87 pts (81 GP) - most possible points is 89 PIT (37-31-12) 86 pts (80 GP) - most possible points is 90

Assuming that PHI wins v WSH on 4.16.24, gaining the maximum possible 89 points, here are the scenarios:

No team can gain more than 2 points.

Although Pittsburgh would tie in points (89) if they gained three in the standings, they hold the regulation wins tiebreaker above us (31 reg Ws to our 30). PIT cannot go 1-0-1.

We hold the regulation win tiebreaker over Detroit (28 reg Ws to our 30). Because they are only two points below us, they are in the same scenario as Pittsburgh; DET cannot go 1-0-1. (They are currently above us in the standings due to points percentage.)

Washington is a funky one. Okay. Here I go. Assume Flyers win on the 16th.

- WSH goes 0-2-0. Yippee!! - WSH goes 0-0-2 for 89 points. Both PHI and WSH have 8 OTWs, 4 in SO. (30 reg Ws per club.) The tiebreaker then, if I did my research correctly is TOTAL WINS; this would be Philadelphia, with 39 wins on the season. - WSH goes 0-1-1 for 88 points. PHI has 89. All good. - WSH goes 1-1-0 for 89 points. PHI wins against them; the tiebreaker, after regulation wins and total wins, is head to head matchups. If we go 2-0-1 against them, gaining 4 points to their 3 against us, we're good. - WSH goes 1-0-1 for 90 points. :NOT GOOD. WSH cannot go 1-0-1. We've been over this with others; no team can gain 3 points.

THE FLYERS CAN CLINCH ON TUESDAY 4.16.24 IF:

4.15.24: Pittsburgh, Detroit both lose in regulation (max possible points not enough or PHI holds tiebreaker) and Washington loses in any scenario AND 4.16.24: Flyers win in regulation or OT. (If Washington wins against Boston, Flyers MUST win in regulation.)

GAMES TO PAY ATTENTION TO

April 14, 2024: None

April 15, 2024: DET v MTL // PIT v NSH // WSH v BOS //

April 16, 2024: PHI v WSH // DET @ MTL

April 17, 2024: PIT @ NYI

📸: Len Redkoles

[samuelerssonupdates]

Really the most important takeaway here is that the Flyers cannot be eliminated without playing on Monday; they have something of a hand in their destiny. What happens on Tuesday and Wednesday both from the Flyers and from Detroit and Pittsburgh will decide their fate - but they can’t be taken out of the race without first having one final say. That’s what matters to me.

April 14, 2024. The Metro playoff race is as follows.

NYI (37-27-16) 90 pts (80 GP) - holds M3 spot - most possible points is 92 WSH (38-31-11) 87 pts (80 GP) - holds WC2 spot - most possible points is 91 DET (39-32-9) 87 pts (80 GP) - most possible points is 91 PHI (38-32-11) 87 pts (81 GP) - most possible points is 89 PIT (37-31-12) 86 pts (80 GP) - most possible points is 90

Assuming that PHI wins v WSH on 4.16.24, gaining the maximum possible 89 points, here are the scenarios:

No team can gain more than 2 points.

Although Pittsburgh would tie in points (89) if they gained three in the standings, they hold the regulation wins tiebreaker above us (31 reg Ws to our 30). PIT cannot go 1-0-1.

We hold the regulation win tiebreaker over Detroit (28 reg Ws to our 30). Because they are only two points below us, they are in the same scenario as Pittsburgh; DET cannot go 1-0-1. (They are currently above us in the standings due to points percentage.)

Washington is a funky one. Okay. Here I go. Assume Flyers win on the 16th.

- WSH goes 0-2-0. Yippee!! - WSH goes 0-0-2 for 89 points. Both PHI and WSH have 8 OTWs, 4 in SO. (30 reg Ws per club.) The tiebreaker then, if I did my research correctly is TOTAL WINS; this would be Philadelphia, with 39 wins on the season. - WSH goes 0-1-1 for 88 points. PHI has 89. All good. - WSH goes 1-1-0 for 89 points. PHI wins against them; the tiebreaker, after regulation wins and total wins, is head to head matchups. If we go 2-0-1 against them, gaining 4 points to their 3 against us, we're good. - WSH goes 1-0-1 for 90 points. :NOT GOOD. WSH cannot go 1-0-1. We've been over this with others; no team can gain 3 points.

THE FLYERS CAN CLINCH ON TUESDAY 4.16.24 IF:

4.15.24: Pittsburgh, Detroit both lose in regulation (max possible points not enough or PHI holds tiebreaker) and Washington loses in any scenario AND 4.16.24: Flyers win in regulation or OT. (If Washington wins against Boston, Flyers MUST win in regulation.)

GAMES TO PAY ATTENTION TO

April 14, 2024: None

April 15, 2024: DET v MTL // PIT v NSH // WSH v BOS //

April 16, 2024: PHI v WSH // DET @ MTL

April 17, 2024: PIT @ NYI

📸: Len Redkoles