simonloweblog

[simonloweblog]

The Reform Party’s stunning victory at the Runcon & Helsby by-election last Thursday in the UK has propelled it onto the main stage in British politics. Barely over a year old, Nigel Farage’s party achieved a huge voter turnaround in a constituency that less than 10 months ago was won by the Labour Party with a majority of over18,000 votes which is a bug feal in England.

As per Trump's victory in November 2024, this election victory was snatched by Farage not because of detailed policies on the economy or even immigration but because he oozes charisma. Like Trump who manages to secure voters not by the attraction of his policies but because he exposes his opponent’s inability to persuade voters that they will succeed in solving their problems. This is irrespective of world events over which they have little control.

Over the past 80 years, the Labour and Conservative parties have roughly shared power, equally. Neither has solved the three main challenges that concern todays  voters; namely, immigration, the National Health Service (NHS) and the economy. Both Keir Starmer and Kemi Badenoch are intelligent politicians but sadly neither are charismatic nor can either hold a torch to Farage's ability to mesmerise an audience whose attention span is measured in minutes and can only be held by fiery pronouncements that trash their opponents. In this endeavour Farage and Trump are birds of a feather for they ooze charisma as opposed ti Starmer who has had a charisma bypass.

Both are like preachers who promise deliverance without being able to offer any proof of how they will achieve it. Policy details and pronouncements are irrelevant in a world that is measured by 30 second soundbites on social media and seeks instant gratification.

Obama emerged from nowhere  because he was a great orator and had a slogan, "Yes we can" but other than a catchy throw away line what did that mean? As it turned out, very little.

JD Vance is a clever man but cannot compete with Trump. If anything, he puts people off but unless the Democrats find a media savvy new leader he may well become the next President by sheer default. Similarly, if both the Labour and Conservative parties continue with Starmer and Badenoch as their leaders, there is a very good chance that Nigel Farage will become the next Prime Minister of the UK.

[simonloweblog]

Generally,  people are quickly bored by politicians who talk a lot and do little. With Trump people are now just exhausted by the unending sheer number of his edicts and actions. Everyday conversation is dominated by his daily eruptions, TV and social media are congested by his minute by minute pronouncements and flip-flops and the resulting push backs by the everyone else coalition of opposition.

There is no room for anything or anybody else.

In his first term there was still space for others but in this his second term he not only dominates the airwaves in America but everywhere else as well. From China to Mexico and Canada to Australia Governments simply do not know how to handle him and what will come next and there is no sign of a letup.. Whether you live or hate him you cannot deny his unbounding energy. That in itself is unique, indeed a phenomenon.

If he has his way we will be exposed to his ramblings and only his for not just the next 45 months but forever. He may well be capable of keeping this up ad nauseum, but we cannot. The damage to our state of mind and our inability to converse about anyone or anything else may cause irreparable damage to our brains never mind our lifestyles.

So far, there appears only to be three countries that have the leadership and a clear strategy of how to deal with him. Canada, Mexico and China. Notice not one European country is included on that list.

In Britain not only are the two main political parties failing and fumbling to come up with a clear response to his tariff hai-lstorm but they are both about to be eclipsed by the Reform party and the hitherto ineffectual Liberals in todays local elections. The Government is failing to provide the electorate with any answers and the Conservative party is struggling to regain any sense of relevance. In short there is a feeling of passive hopelessness in the UK.  The EU has hitherto failed to come up with a coherent joint response, not surprising considering that each country continues to forge its own  ambitions and fails to see that individually they can no longer compete.

As Trum seems unlikely to run out of steam and Europe continues to find talking easier than taking action and with no sight of resolution in Gaza or Ukraine with, China likely to fill the voids that America is creating with its new foreign policy it seems unlikely that we will have any relief from Mr. Trump anytime soon.

[simonloweblog]

USA 0-China 1

Eighty percent of US citizens think that it would be a good thing if more manufacturing jobs came back to America but only twenty percent said they would want to work in a car or steel factory!

The fact is that there is no way on earth that the hourly wages of a US blue collar worker which are at least 6 times higher than their counterparts in China can lead to the  onshoring of manufacturing jobs in the USA unless American consumers are prepared to pay much, much higher prices for all the goods that they have been accustomed to buying from China for a fraction of the price.

If they are forced to do so it will result in a substantial increase in inflation and a painful rise in the cost of living for the working and middle classes

Those jobs have been lost and are not going to return. Even if US Corporations are persuaded to open new factories back home it will take years to build them and they will be primarily run by robots for that will be the only way they will be able to compete. Today, manufacturing in the US accounts for barely 8% of GDP and of that only c 4% is directly related to the manufacturing process as the rest relates to marketing and design etc.

Trump's love affair with Tariffs may well be his downfall because whereas his supporters do not seem troubled by his purges of Federal employees or his withdrawal of Federal funds from elite universities, they do care about the cost of toys for their children and that of a new car so unless we are all missing something  they could be his undoing.

Whereas China may still lag behind the US in inventing new technologies it has huge capacity to develop them to scale in record time and thus deliver them commercially faster and more efficiently than can be done in either the US or Europe.

This is now demonstrably the case with their revolutionary development of Deep Seek and the emergence of BYD, China's huge car company that has overtaken Tesla in China and will soon dominate EV sales in Europe.

Whereas Trump can claim success with his Immigration policy limiting the entry of illegal immigrants, his tactics are attracting increasing resistance in the courts and protests on the streets. With the election of Mark carney in Canada, his desire to make Canada the 51th State looks doomed, as are his Gaza and shameful Ukraine policies. Meanwhile the Universities that he has attacked are pushing back and the State of California is suing his Administration.

Trump may succeed bullying Japan and some other countries into “bending the knee” but China is not playing ball and his worsening poll numbers will dive further if and when Walmart, Target, Costo and Lowe’s shelves are empty.

Whereas he is not down and out, there is increasing hope that his juggernaut will come to a halt just as the Russian tanks got bogged down in the mud during their advance on Kiev.

[simonloweblog]

Fact v Fiction: Trump's Trade "War"

The MAGA mantra is  “Make America Great Again”. In the 2016 Presidential campaign, Hillary Clinton made the point that America was already Great!. It was then and it is now but somehow Trump managed to persuade over 77 million voters that it wasn’t.

Unemployment in the US is at 4.2%. The all time low over the past 25 years was 3.5%. America’s share of world trade is at an all time high of 25%  viz., China’s at 14.5% and the EU’s share of 16.6%. US GDP in 2024 was $29.35 trillion, another all-time high, viz China’s at $18.5 trillion and the EU’s combined GDP of $20.2 trillion.

In addition to these sturdy stats that clearly show that the US is the undisputed world economic superpower, America has the world’s most powerful military, with outposts and bases in over 100 countries, more than any other Country and has the world’s only predominant trading and reserve currency.

In addition, the USA is at this time, the world’s titan in the fields of IT and AI.

Yet once again in November 2024, Trump managed to persuade the electorate that America was an economic disaster being ravaged by unfair competition from China, Europe and as per his “Liberation” day,  even the smallest, poorest countries like Madagascar. They exported $82m of  Vanilla, its most valuable product, to the US in 2023. Because it is so poor it buys little from them and so under the new tariff formula will now have to pay a whacking 47% tariff on this export!- madness.

Through its generosity, research, medical, agricultural and financial assistance, America was the most influential country throughout  Africa. Well it will not be for much longer.

It is true that China has not played by the rules and has ruthlessly flouted the WTO but surely the way to level the playing field is to persuade them and others to remove their tariffs on US goods, by threatening them with tariffs as opposed to starting a tariff Trade war the main loser of which will be the very citizens he purports to champion. The fact is that the only reason that countries like Vietnam and Cambodia will beat a pathway to the White House to negotiate with him is because America IS the strongest economy in the world!

If Trump retains the tariffs announced last Wednesday against 185 countries (NB: there are only 195 recognized countries in the world)  then there is little doubt that inflation will rise and the very citizens  that he claimed  would benefit from electing him will feel the pain of higher not lower prices on a myriad of consumer goods that will hit and hurt  everyone but most especially the “Walmart” buyer.

Trump’s main objective allegedly is to bring manufacturing jobs back to America. Two of his main targets are the Auto and Textiles Industries.

The average hourly rate for a textile worker in Vietnam is $1.37 against $16.49 in the US; a Chinese car worker earns up to $4.37 an hour whereas a US car worker gets $28 an hour.  How in hell’s name can the US compete with those differentials and if those industries produced EVERYTHING in America the cost of living would rise to such an extent that it would cripple the working class. And incidentally the reason that American cars don’t sell in any numbers in Europe or China is that they are either too big or too expensive for the mass market.

The huge increase in world trade and prosperity ushered in after the end of the Second World war created through Organisations and Institutions established by Roosevelt & Truman; these are now being dismantled by Trump.

The last time that America attempted to create an economy based on protectionism by introducing tariffs was through the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of June 1930 and that led to the great Depression. In two days last week the American stock markets lost $6.5 trillion which is 15 times the total value of auto imports into the United States in 2024! And even if Trump’s policy were to bring some manufacturing jobs back to America it will take years.  Hopefully long before that the American electorate will have come to their senses and the extremists in the Republican party will have been shown the door.

[simonloweblog]

" A riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma" (Winston Churchill) succinctly describes Tesla and Elon Musk, its CEO, principal shareholder and driving force.

Valued at "only" $37b ten years ago, Tesla's market cap soared to a high of $1.5 trillion on December 17th 2024, trading at 211 times its earnings ratio, as against that of Toyota trading at only 7 times and GM at a poultry 5 times earnings!

Since then, its stock price slumped  to a "low" of $223 on March 11th valuing the company at $679b.

In short, like its driving force Elon Musk, Tesla is one of the most volatile companies in the world. At its height, it was the 9th most valuable company in the world. 

Few doubt that Musk is a genius and that he has revolutionized the electric car and its impact on the car industry as well as the climate change debate. Through DOGE, his impact on US politics and the American economy as well as his influence on other countries has caused a lot of controversy and backlash. Like Icarus, has he flown to near to the sun and burnt his image and irreparably tarnished the Brand that has made him the richest man in the world?

From the darling of Liberal environmentalists to a new label of "Swasticars", he has alienated his core customers in the US, made enemies in Europe with his  support of the AfD in Germany and his constant meddling in UK politics.

He may have the support of Trump and the MAGA crowd but generally they are not Tesla buyers.

Quite aside from these self- inflicted wounds, China, Tesla's second largest market is no longer in love with it because their own EV producers like BYD and Jaecoo are making EVs many of which are half the price of a Tesla not to speak of being more advanced technologically. They have a range of newer models and the status symbol of owning a Tesla is wearing thin.

So what are the future prospects for Tesla? Well, Trump's tariffs will protect the company in the short run in the US but I believe that Liberal America's love affair with the brand is over and he will only be able to compete with Chinese companies in China if he drastically lowers the price of his cars. If he does that, its juicy profit margins will evaporate making the P/e ratio and the share price even more outlandish.

Of course, if he decides to launch his humanoid robots through Tesla all bets are off. He remains a brilliant entrepreneur and if he extricates himself from politics, we must remember that he is still a huge force to be reckoned with.

[simonloweblog]

Trump: The comeback kid-a unique phenomenon in US political history

Donald Trump is either hated or loved by the vast majority of voters. He is undoubtedly the most divisive and possibly the most consequential politician in the history of the US. No ex-President or Politician has ever been pursued by some many claimants and prosecutors as he has been and none have managed to dodge the bullets so consistently as he has done. He is, in short, a unique phenomenon.

Some factoids that support this claim.

He is only one of two Presidents in US history to serve two non-sequential terms as President.   

He is only one of two President to be impeached, but the only one to be impeached twice.

He is the only President to be re-elected after been being on trial for rape, sexual harassment, fraud, falsifying business records, election subversion and been convicted on 34 felony counts.

He is the only President to have been both a Democrat, an Independent and a Republican.

He is the oldest President in history to win a Second term

Never in American history has a serial adulterer survived politically from the many scandals that The Donald has.

Since 1973 Trump has been involved in over 4,000 legal cases.

After he lost the 2020 election and  the storming of the Capital he left DC and was to all intense and purposes a political pariah who was deserted by and left for dead by the Republican party and shunned by the entire political establishment not to mention the business Oligarchs who would not even return his calls. But almost immediately, he set about rebuilding his image and "the comeback kid" went on to stage the biggest comeback of all time to win the 2024 Presidential election. In achieving a stunning victory he managed along the way to extinguish all political opposition both outside and inside his party and his millions of devout “Maga” fans are more loyal than ever.

So what is it that has made this man so unique? Like all men of history, he has had his failures. He has been bankrupted six times yet is thought of by his followers as a hugely successful business man.

There are five main reasons that together have made him unique.

Like Hitler he mesmerizes his audiences and he can be the most charming person in the room. He oozes charisma and whereas he can rant on aimlessly sometimes for hours, he is a master of whipping up a crowd.

He is a serial bull; he does not countenance any opposition. He has systematically destroyed all his opponents from "Little" Marco, "Crooked" Hilary, "Sleepy" Joe Biden to Ron de "Sanctimonious"

 He is a master of gauging the mood of the crowd and appealing to their fears and aspirations. 

His narcissism is total, so he never has doubts at all about himself and truly believes that he is right about everything and therefore that everyone who disagrees with him is wrong.

He never gives up and he has no compunction about lying about anything.

But like almost all Dictators and bullies he will eventually fail and fall. It won't be because like Hitler or Napoleon he loses a war but eventually, those who swung the election in his favour will realise that he is a fraud and will not deliver the Utopia he has promised them.

[simonloweblog]

Trump & JD blowout Zalensky and alienate the whole of Europe

On Friday, Trump & JD Vance set about to destroy the system that the US created in 1945 that has delivered 80 years of peace in Europe.

Trump ended his disgraceful outburst in the Oval Office with the comment that his spat with  Volodymyr Zalensky  was “great television"; that just sums Trump up! Yesterday, Vance left for a skiing weekend in Vermont but was booed out of town.

Friday was indeed a dark day for diplomacy, civility and the free world.  The post 2nd World War order is now officially dead.

Fortunately, Britain France, Germany and most other European countries understand that they must unite to fill a void that will be created if the US abandons Ukraine as now seems likely and Nato may give way to a new European military alliance that will be essential  if Europe is to stand in the way of Putin marching on to fulfil his imperial ambitions of recreating the Soviet Union.

Everyone is in shock and disbelief but as they say “every cloud has a silver lining” for it is time for Europe to take control and be responsible for its own defense which will eventually allow European leaders to tell Mr. Trump to get lost instead of having constantly to pander to his unbearable narcissism. 

Today, Keir Starmer the UK prime Minister convened an emergency meeting in London which was attended by 17 European Prime Ministers and Presidents all of whom voiced the strongest support for President Zalensky and the Ukrainian people  and pledged to join forces to create a military capable of ensuring that Putin will not be able to dictate the peace nor rearm and strike Ukraine again as soon as it has done so.

On the economic front, Europe, Canada and 

Mexico need to create a unified economic strategy so they can tell him to stuff his tariffs as they could do serious damage to the US economy and that would hurt Americans to such an extent that they may turn on the Donald and boo him out of town too!

Trump has disgraced and demeaned the office of the Presidency and it is he not Zalensky who is a threat to world peace with his insane pronouncements on the fate of Greenland, Canada, Gaza and the Panama canal to name but four.

The only barometer that Trump cares about are his ratings and the stock market. If the chaos he is inciting produces a downturn in either or both and the price of groceries & eggs continues to go up, he could suddenly be faced with big crowds but not singing his praises but instead chanting "GROT"- "Get Rid of Trump"

[simonloweblog]

The Jewish v the Palestinian Diaspora

IN 1886 Theodor Herzl founded the Zionist movement that called for the “restoration of the Jewish State” and in 1897 the First Jewish Congress took place in Basel. For over 125 years the Jewish diaspora has supported first the establishment of a Jewish State and thereafter the continuity of one against huge odds and ongoing hostility both from the Arab world and others.

By comparison the Palestinian call for the creation of a Palestinian State after 1948 has had little support from the millions of Palestinians around the world. Jordan alone is home to more than 3m and Queen Nor is herself Palestinian. In addition, there are over 600,000 Palestinians in Syria; 400,000 in Lebanon, 280,000 in Saudi Arabia and 270,000 in Egypt. Where are their voices and their support?

Philanthropy from world Jewry has been extensive; the WIZO organization was founded  in London by Rebecca Sieff in 1920. It’s objective was to support  disadvantaged women and children; MDA is the ambulance service in Israel has no financial support from the Israeli Government and depends entirely on voluntary contributions . From education and the Arts and medicine a host of Charities have assisted and nurtured life in Israel especially for the less fortunate.

I have searched the internet to find comparable Charities and Institutions that provide funding for Palestinians; at this time of destruction and loss of life in Gaza surely there would be Palestinians in the diaspora that would both individually and collectively  come forward to support their brethren in Gaza, Lebanon and Syria. But the there are no voices to be heard proclaiming aid and support. The Jews in London, New York and around the world support Israel both vocally and financially but we do not hear that Jordanian or Egyptian Palestinians are making their voices heard nor of their collective efforts to send aid and rebuild the war ravaged areas that their fellow Palestinians are now returning to in Gaza and elsewhere. The organisations that have and continue to work with and assist Palestinians are mostly western ones like The Red cross, Medicin Sans Frontiere, the UN Crisis Relief Fund, UNICEF, Oxfam and others all of whom are Western based and with little Palestinian or Arab support.

The very sad truth is that since 1948 the main Arab nations who could have both absorbed the 700,000 Palestinian Arabs that fled the new State of Israel have used them for almost 80 years as pawns in an unending conflict between Jew and Arab.

It is time now for the Palestinian diaspora to kick in and help rehabilitate their fellow Palestinians; action speaks louder than words.

Israel now has a unique opportunity as victor in the latest war to offer a just settlement for a Palestinian state. Her Arab neighbor States would surely enthusiastically embrace such an initiative and would exert huge pressure on the war mongering Palestinian fighters to accept a settlement. Unfortunately, the current Israeli government is unlikely to do so spurred on by Trump’s ridiculous “Gaza Riviera” scheme that has already been universally rejected.

The fact is that other than paying lip service to the plight of the Palestinians the major players have never and still don’t really care what happens to them. The old mantra that “God helps those who help themselves” in the case of the Palestinians will be the only chance that they will have to resolve their unending plight.

[simonloweblog]

Trump: The Imperialist

The fact that Donald Trump wants to take back the Panama Canal and take over Greenland may be championed by his MAGA supporters but if Nato and European Powers remain silent and subservient to his bullying it will only spur him on to become bolder and more dictatorial. 

No doubt, his rhetoric will encourage Shi Shing Pin to pursue his ambitions in Taiwan and Putin will be fortified in his resolve to remain steadfast in his quest for victory in the Ukraine.

History is rich with examples of countries deserting their allies and failing to fulfill treaty obligations in the face of  bullying tactics from tyrants and dictators.

Britain succumbed to Germany’s demand that it be permitted to occupy the Sudetenland in 1938 and together with France, Britian backed down and allowed Hitler to invade Czechoslovakia in 1939 in spite of it's clear treaty obligation to defend its sovereignty.

The UK is a founding member of NATO and is therefore pledged to honour Article Five of its Charter that states that, “an attack on one member is an attack on all” and thus would be  obliged to come to Denmark's defense if the US took military action to acquire Greenland as threatened by Trump.

Yet when UK Government ministers are asked if they condemn Trump's declaration that he would do so if Denmark fails to sell Greenland to the USA they recoil from condemning his bluster and threats. This smacks of Hitler's demands in 1939; let's not forget that he carried out his threats.

Suggestions that Trump is an isolationist are well wide of the mark. He is in fact a classic Imperialist. His naked attacks on his foes and threats against them may not be of armed war, but they are the beginning of an economic war.

Europe's dependence on the US for protection extends way beyond its nuclear umbrella because effectively its military hardware and software is largely dependent on American armaments, spare parts and software.

Will those countries that have built their defense forces on US military equipment now rethink where they should buy it in the future? It is likely that Brits and Europeans may believe they should reposition their procurement strategies. If so, not only will US weapons manufacturers lose orders, the very opposite of what Trump wants to do in bolstering manufacturing at home, but  other players will step in to the breach.

The huge US foreign aid program that extends to over 100 nations is suddenly under threat as a result of Trump's executive orders suspending all foreign aid. This is having an immediate impact on hundreds of NGO's around the world. Will they now start to look elsewhere for aid and assistance? No doubt there will be other players more than willing to step into the void that Trump is now creating.

The very global influence that America possesses today is because of its foreign policy, international vision and foreign investment that has been built up over the past century. 

Trump’s short term vision may well yield short term gains but in the long run US influence will decline because in an inter dependent global world he is a Dinosaur and we know what happened to them.

[simonloweblog]

The Contrast could not be starker

There was a time when the special relationship between the US and the UK had substance. Apart from the historical and cultural bonds between them, the UK was, during the twentieth century, the middleman between the US and Europe. During that time the US was Europe focused and committed with Britain to a joint ideological war against Fascism & Communism. Since Obama refocused the US to the East and with Trump back in the White House, Europe is no longer America’s main priority. The declining voice of Britain in International politics, economics and world trade means that it’s influence in Washington is but a fraction of what it used to be.

While the mood in the USA is one of growing enthusiasm about the future as its economy powers ahead, the mood in Britain is pessimistic and it's economy is in the doldrums.

The UK Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, and the PM, Keir Starmer, who were both previously against the construction of a 3rd Runway at Heathrow Airport now believe that building one will energise UK productivity. This is a subject that has been debated for 79 years for it was first raised in 1946! Talk about grasping at straws; its vast cost recently estimated at over £40b together with it's  environmental impact and more importantly the huge disruption to life around Heathrow combined with general public anti-runway sentiment, means that it unlikely that it will ever be built.

Contrast this with Theodore Roosevelt's ruthless commitment to building the Panama Canal in 1903 and Biden’s $1.2 trillion Infrastructure Bill, whereby new bridges, roads, rail tracks and airport terminals are being built at pace across the United States. In short, the disparity of ambition, commitment and scope between the two countries is huge and growing. Sadly, Britain is now like a corner grocery store compared to a giant supermarket chain. The Chancellor recently pledged £7.9b to establish a British Sovereign Fund. This contrasts with Trump's announcement of a  $500b AI investment Fund.

The truth is that small countries, like small companies, can no longer compete with the big boys. So, it's time that Britain got the message. It's also time that Europe got the message as well because in a world that is increasingly ruled by bullies and autocrats those countries who want to work shorter hours earn higher pay and receive ever larger State benefits will have to change their attitude, philosophy and policies if they wish to compete and keep pace with the US, China and India.

[simonloweblog]

Trump: New Imperialism

Trump's true colours have been confirmed; within  hours of retaking the Presidency the promised flurry of executive orders have been signed and executed. We had hoped  there would continue to be a difference between what Trump says and what Trump does but that too was a false hope.

For all its shortcomings and hypocrisies, the global order that emerged at the end of World War II promoted the idea that cooperation, not aggression, should be the presumed starting point of diplomacy.

Trump's imperialist rattling is legitimating Dictators and energizing his followers whose rightwing fanatics are fueling his increasingly unrestrained policies. His verbal attacks on Canada, Denmark and Panama add to an increasingly volatile world. One lesson the past teaches is that a belliger­ent posture against foes, never mind friends, will lead to more confrontation, more brinkmanship and more war, the exact opposite of what Trump's allegedly anti-war rhetoric purports to stand for. By his actions he is de facto encouraging Putin, Xi Ping, Kim Jong Un, and every other dictator.

If Trump’s imperial style of executive orders are allowed to proceed without challenge, then his oath to defend the Constitution will have been broken within hours after swearing it and the very essence of the Constitution and all of its Amendments will be under siege. Denying birthright citizenship to those Resident in the US as well as illegal immigrants is a direct violation of the 14th Amendment.

Pardoning 1600 convicted felons found guilty of the January 6th attack on the Capital makes a mockery of the US Judicial system. Equally appalling is the failure of Republican legislators and Judges to speak out against him for his actions.

Denying and overriding the undeniable scientific evidence of climate change and reversing carefully constructed energy and environmental policies lays bare Trump's short term ambitions at the cost of long-term protections and security for the US and the World.

His alignment with Tech is a naked expression of his desire to control the world's media and to punish the press.  By doing his bidding, "X" "Tik Tok" and "Facebook" are delivering Trump unmitigated power to control the airwaves and what people see and hear across the world.

The Liberal triumph of the Cold War and the hope of a freer more equal world order is now being challenged on every front. A new Oligarchy that Biden referred to in his farewell address is the reality of the concentration of power in the hands of few who are accountable only to themselves.

We can only hope that the checks and balances that the Founding Fathers created between the three branches of Government will "check" Trump's uncamouflaged attempt to override them all.

[simonloweblog]

The Fall of Assad:

Today, the Syrian people as well as much of the Middle East and those around the world who decry dictators- especially those who wage war on their own people- should thank Israel for creating the scenario that has helped to remove Bashar Al Assad and his hideous regime from power. It is shameful that leaders like President Macron, to name but one, did nothing for years to stop Assad killing, maiming and gassing his own people. Throughout the Assad dynasty no western leader raised a finger to stop their barbaricregime yet suddenly today Macron self-righteously proclaimed: 

“The barbaric state has fallen. I pay tribute to the Syrian people, to their courage, to their patience… I send them my wishes for peace, freedom and unity.”

Much of the Arab world including those who oppose the definition of the Axis of Evil, that now includes Iran, should also thank Israel for weakening and degrading Iran's ability to cause havoc in the Middle East and beyond.

The plight of the Palestinians remains an ongoing tragedy but has been used by almost every Middle East player in an attempt to isolate Israel and turn it into a Pariah State. 

Whether planned or not, Israel's actions against Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis rebels, and all of Iran's surrogates has set back Iran's War of Jihad and the threat of all-out war in the Middle East including terrorism in many theaters of the region.

Maybe Syria will now have a chance to emerge from fourteen years of death, destruction, torture and civil war and hopefully the events of the past few days will be a warning to other Dictators that eventually they too will fall.

The fact is that however unattractive the Netanyahu regime is, it remains the only true democracy in the Middle East and a bulwark against all the autocracies in the region.

I do not welcome the re-election of Donald Trump but I do agree with him that the US should not intervene in Syria's future direction. Perhaps his intended policy of American Isolationism will keep the US out of yet another foreign intervention and a repeat of previous US  disasters overseas. By leaving the Syrians to sort out their own pathway forward it may just be possible that a repetition of past events in Iraq & Libya can be avoided and maybe, just maybe, Iran will decide that a change of direction is now warranted because Israel has succeeded in meting out a severe blow to their ambitions of Middle Eastern dominance.

[simonloweblog]

With Trump's election victory the stage is set for American society to become even more fractured than it is already.

There are 23 states with Democratic Governors and only days ago Governor Pritzker of Illinois and Governor Jared Polis of Colorado created a group called "Governors Guarding Democracy". Governor Newsom of California has announced that his state will shortly introduce legislation to protect its citizen’s rights on abortion and other issues that he fears will be attacked by the new Administration as well as the prospect that some of the draconian measures set out in "Project 2025" will be implemented.

The polarization of politics within different states has and continues to become sharper.

Values and lifestyles in New York are intrinsically different to those in The Dakotas. Likewise, in the Southern States like Alabama and Mississippi when compared to the Northwestern states of Washington and Oregon.

Many believe the wounds of the Civil War have never healed which is visibly evidenced by the intense dislike that Southerners still have for Northerners.

With the re-emergence of the Monroe Doctrine of isolationism  under Trump, the divisions relating to foreign policy have become more fractured than at any time since before the Second World War. The people of the West Coast feel that their interests are more closely aligned with the nations of Asia and Australasia than with Europe whereas those living on the East Coast still show more interest and concern with events in Europe.

Many are now questioning the validity of Harris's mantra that "there is much more that unites us than divides us". Clearly, that was a message that did not resonate with the voters. On the contrary, there appears to be more that is dividing US society than is uniting it. The truth is that it has become almost "tribal".

The idealism that was the backbone of the American experiment in the days of the Founding Fathers and that created the "United States" has given way to 50 very different and unequal States with individual ideas on governance. The ethical composition of Vermont compared to that of Texas, to that in Montana or Alabama, is chalk and cheese.

Increasingly, individual states are seeking to ensure their "independence" and with a level of distrust in the Federal government that has been growing and now, turbo-charged by Trump, is translating into parlor discussions in several states about secession.

Whereas this may seem highly unlikely, there are many examples across the world where people that were bound together is one state now seek their own independence. That is exactly how the USA came into being!

The intensity of division, anger and frustration has never been greater because, realistically, the land of hope and opportunity today portrays less hope and fewer opportunities for the masses. 

When canvassing , nearly 70% of the electorate said that they were dissatisfied with the state of the Union and the direction that America is heading in. Donald Trump's divisive brand of politics is unlikely to heal the divisions that he is in fact helping to expand. His pursuit of the "enemy within" could lead to the creation of powerful forces "without" which may in turn lead to struggles that will wound American society and shake the very foundations of its great institutions.

[simonloweblog]

"Post Mortem"

Actually, it should come as no surprise that Kamala Harris and the Democrats lost the election this week. During this year, incumbent administrations all over the world have been and continue to be removed by an electorate that blames them for the pain and costs wreaking havoc on their lives during and post-Pandemic. Millions of lives were lost. Over one million in the US alone and the ensuing economic pain brought on by high inflation- caused by supplier disruption and the war in Ukraine- made voters unforgiving of both Governments.

Equally, in the UK and the US the large majorities won by the Conservatives and the Democrats respectively last time around have been overturned by a massive vote of protest. It is fair to say that the incumbents “lost” as opposed to the challengers winning for these were substantial swings based on a demand for change. Both parties need to learn- and learn quickly- that spouting statistics about improving economic growth and reducing inflation will not cut it when the majority of working class voters continue to struggle with the high cost of living. ”Growth”  and “Productivity” are already yesterday’s mantras. “Affordable living” is one of the new catch phrases.

In the UK I already forsee that the Labour party’s hope of turning the economy around based on increased productivity is doomed. Practically all the economic forecasters; the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), World Bank and the IMF predict minimal growth over the next two years and certainly way below what the Prime Minister and Chancellor have said they require to achieve their objectives and pay for their expensive policy initiatives. Spending billions more on the NHS and other “social” policies will have to be paid by increased borrowing as there is no money in the kitty. The markets do not like Rachel Reeves’ budget nor does the business community. They predict her employment tax increases will cost jobs. The non-Dom status has finally been removed and although it will only affect a relatively small number of people, the UK will become a substantially less attractive destination for wealthy investors to reside in and the Chancellor’s actions will likely affect the upper end of the London property market that is driven by foreign interest.

In the US, millions are still in shock from the election results and everyone is anxious as to the future and what President-elect Trump will actually do now that he will have a relatively free hand over the next four years.  Being an optimist,  I believe that the Constitution is robust enough to withstand most attacks and has proven to be so hitherto. Governor Newsom in California is already taking steps to shore up the rights and protection of California’s citizens and I suspect that other Governors and legislators in liberal states will follow suit. Much as some citizens might like to think that there are no “Red and Blue“ states but only the United States, they must now know that notion was put to rest some time ago.The divisions are clear. The East and West Coasts are so very different from the Midwest and the South and if anything they are becoming more divergent. But, there will  be no civil war nor any war at all as the one redeeming Trump quality is that he is fanatically war averse.

The electorate can be confident that if the newly elected politicians do not deliver on their promises, they are very likely to receive the same punishment as the current incumbents. If however they do well and deliver, then many of our fears will prove to have been unfounded. The one thing that is indisputable is that both in the US and the UK the elections have been free and fair; that is a whole lot better than what is available in Russian, China, Iran and North Korea.

[simonloweblog]

Love him or hate him.....

... You have to give him credit for being the "greatest" comeback kid in US history. In what has been a free and fair election, democracy has prevailed and Kamala Harris has been fairly and squarely beaten.

The American people have given Donald J. Trump a clear mandate. For only the second time in 20 years, a Republican Presidential candidate has won a majority of the popular vote and he has done so by a wide margin.

Those who thought that women would vote overwhelmingly for Harris; those who thought that Black and Latino America would be a winning combination for her did not understand that in the end it is always "the economy, stupid"!

The high ideals of wishing to safeguard democracy from a self- professed would-be-Dictator were no match for the "me, me, me" culture of unfettered American capitalism.

With control of the Senate and possibly the House, Trump will have substantial freedom and enhanced power to pursue and implement his agenda. Will he really deport millions of illegal immigrants? If so, what will the results of that be? And what about his intention to impose substantial tariffs on foreign imports? If there are unintended consequences that harm the economy then the electorate will turn on him and Republicans in the mid-term elections in 2026 and 2028.

The good news is that The Founding Fathers' sophisticated web of checks and balances has so far protected US citizens from handing unlimited and unchecked power to any President.

Trump's isolationist views have been consistent and his aversion to war well-documented. That may give some comfort to his opponents but sends shivers down the spine of Ukrainians and Europeans. If Nato and Europe want to ensure that Putin does not win the war in Ukraine or is ever allowed to further his ambition of re-creating the Russian Empire then they must step up and take responsibility for their own security. The era of the US policing the world and playing protector of the free world are over. at least for the next four years.

The demographics of the US electorate continue to evolve and the fact is that white males will not dominate the political arena for too many more years. Having said that the cause of minority and female political power has undoubtedly suffered a setback and the champions of climate change are unlikely to have a seat in Trump’s cabinet. 

On a positive note, there will be a smooth transition of power on January 20th 2025 and no repeat of the violence of January 6th 2021. The burning question is whether President Trump will actually "execute" some of the more horrific extreme and vengeful actions he threatened during the campaign or whether having succeeded in being re-elected he will use his power to be a President worthy of the mandate he has been democratically given.

[simonloweblog]

"It's dog eat dog with little room for brotherly love"

A country that increasingly values selfishness and greed above compassion and a sense of what is right and what is wrong will determine, in the Presidential election next Tuesday, the shape of what US society will look like for years to come.

What American Billionaires, the working and middle classes have in common is their sense of entitlement and self-interest that ranks above all else. The “me, me, me” mantra that has become entrenched in US society is now showing it's true colours.

If Trump wins this election, it will confirm that the basic principles of fairness, equality and decency have no place in this new America. Demagoguery, scapegoating and unrestrained expressions of hatred will have won over the basic objectives of the Founding Fathers which were to create a free and fair society.

Don't blame the politicians, blame the voters. They should have learned by now that the stark reality is that today's politicians have only one objective which is achieving power by any means. That, of course, applies to both sides of the divide. The only difference is that under Trump, the GOP has decided that there are no boundaries and no protocols that cannot be breached in their quest for power.

Those that say Harris should remain above the fray and be of a higher moral standard don't understand that unfortunately to win today you have to fight fire with fire; turning the other cheek may sound good in the bible but read on where it says

"an eye for an eye".

These past nine years have shown that Trump gets a pass on whatever venom spews from his foul mouth but the hope is that whereas he gets away with it, his surrogates will not. Those "mini-Trumps" may just have gone too far at the Madison Square Garden rally last Sunday and non- white voters, especially the Hispanic community, may have finally woken up to the reality that they are despised by the new Republicans and attribute no value to them other than their vote.

Trump calls Michelle Obama, who is possibly the most popular person in the United States, "nasty".

Well, what does that make him?

Trump's brand is a danger not just in America but everywhere for it has already spread to other countries where his political brothers are copying him by declaring their own elections as being rigged and using "fake news" to challenge every outcome that does not suit them.

Communism in Russia finally imploded because its economy imploded. The U.S. whose economy remains the strongest in the world in spite of him telling everyone that it isn't, will not implode economically but may well do so politically and socially if next week voters choose "wrong" over "right".

[simonloweblog]

"Coming together-Really?"

"Coming together" is a mantra that has been increasingly used during recent election cycles. The fact is that if everyone was of the same opinion there would be no need for different political parties because everyone would join  one- like they do in China! So factually "coming together" is not only unrealistic but also anti-democratic.

The only time in Man’s history when there were no effective differences between human beings was when they were simple hunter-gatherers and no social or economic organisations existed. It was from the beginning of the agricultural revolution that human beings started to organise into groups. By tending the land they established property acquisition and  “possession”, differing points of view and became competitive. This led to the birth of tribalism, hierarchy and ultimately politics.

It has been fashionable for some time now to promote the objective of assimilation & integration. For centuries, Jews have refused to do so which has made them the target of endless discrimination. The truth is that humans are tribal and to be blunt generally prefer to be with and feel more comfortable alongside their own. They tend to live and work in better harmony with those that share their social values, religious affiliations, culture and history.

In 1965 President Johnson signed “affirmative action” into law. More recently, governments and corporations have introduced the principles embodied in DEI -“ diversity, equity and inclusion”. Has the pendulum swung too far? I believe it has and no doubt  I will receive strong words of disagreement for simply suggesting this, but there is little doubt that some of the current social friction may be born out of the fact that certain groups, particularly new immigrants and asylum seekers, are being prioritized above tax paying nationals and  that generates fear that jobs and livelihood are being threatened.

Much is made today of the term "the have and have nots". The billionaires of today are the equivalent of the landed gentry of yesterday. Kings and aristocrats ruled their fiefdoms and controlled the lives of their subjects. In those days there was no healthcare, social welfare, state education or pensionsso as Professor Pinkus argues, the majority in the West are better off than they have ever been and in fact the gap in narrower than ever. Nobel and Rockerfeller became the new aristocrats of the 20th century and have now been supplanted by the likes of Bezos and Musk in the 21st century. Their economic muscle is often portrayed in the form of philanthropy and political support to advance their objectives by effectively buying power. They are no different to their predecessors in so much as they too seek to pay as little tax as possible. The only difference is that their lifestyle and wealth are now visible to the masses via the internet and social media.

In France, it is now unlawful for women to wear the hijab, veil or headscarf in public. Is it fair to tell people how they must dress, or is it fair to say, “when in Rome do as the Romans do”?

The current level of friction between countries, religious sects, social groups and different political philosophies seems to be more intense and dangerous than at any time since the second world war. Today there are more countries and bad actors capable of destroying peace and wreaking havoc on the world order. Producing drones that cost a fraction of a tank or ballistic missile has immeasurably widened the market for mischief and destruction. 

AI, fake news and hacking are relatively new phenomena and were not available to bad actors just a few years ago. People no longer trust their government or show much respect for what used to be the pillars of society; teachers, law enforcement officers, the military and their elected leaders. They may still trust "their own" but that is very far from  "coming together".

The numbers of growing populations in countries such as the US, the UK and much of Europe is putting a huge strain on the demand for housing, health and education and, as a result, stokes social friction. Politicians and political parties must cease to claim "growth" as their main policy objective and concentrate more on stabilizing their increasingly fractious constituents. Otherwise, "falling apart" will become more of a mantra than "coming together".