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Facts and Theories related to Fool's Gold and Norton

Part 1: Facts and Theories about Pyrite aka Fool's Gold

TLDR - Facts:

comes from the Greek word for fire

the dangers of pyrite oxidation (sulfuric acid, sulfur dioxide)

pyrite can contain small amounts of real gold, called “invisible gold”

TLDR - Theories

Pyrite containing real gold parallel to Norton being good deep down

Fire connection to Infernal Sin

Pollution in Lakeside water and soil as well as cause of fish and plants dying because of Golden Cave?

Part 2: Facts and Theories about how Norton escaped Golden Cave

TLDR:

Norton didn't just simply dig himself out

Facts about mines, mine collapses, dangers, potential escape routes, etc...

Part 1

Facts

Pyrite (aka fool’s gold) comes from the Greek word ‘pyros’ meaning ‘fire’, and will create sparks when struck against metal or a hard surface.

It is capable of scratching glass while most knives won’t be able to scratch it.

In the presence of moisture and oxygen, pyrite oxidizes, releasing its sulfur content as sulfuric acid.

Pyrite rich waste from mining operations can increase acidity of surface water. This can harm downstream ecosystems, animals, and even pose a risk to humans.

Sulfur dioxide is produced by burning the pyrite in coal, which can combine with moisture in the atmosphere to create acid rain.

Pyrite oxidation is sufficiently exothermic enough to produce heat, and as the temperature rises, the coal heats up and in some cases cause it to self-ignite and cause fire. This is called spontaneous combustion, a very real problem in coal mines. Pyrite dust can burn even with only a little oxygen, and it burns well due to its sulfur content. Sulfide fires can burn for years.

Despite its reputation, pyrite can sometimes contain small amounts of real gold, although it is notoriously hard to extract. This gold is sometimes referred to as “invisible gold” because it isn’t observable by the naked eye or standard microscopes (you need sophisticated scientific instruments). It can come in different forms: either as particles of gold, an alloy where the pyrite and gold are finely mixed, and in defects (imperfections created when the pyrite crystals are forming) in the crystal structure . With the latter form, the more deformed it is, the more gold there is in the defects.

And the discovery of new gold deposits declining world wide, with the quality of ore degrading in parallel to the value of precious metal increasing.

Invisible gold is primarily found in pyrite and arsenopyrite, and this is now a common resource for the gold mining industry.

Theories

I really wanted to bring up pyrite having some real gold (even if the amounts are very small). Especially as I can draw a parallel with that to Norton, who may normally seem suspicious, but he isn’t entirely bad. He may seem unapproachable, but you may make progress if you dig deep enough and try hard enough. He isn’t completely “worthless”.

Pyrite coming from the word for  fire connects well to Infernal Sin, while pyrite being a fire starter in the fast due to its ability to create sparks fits well with Norton’s how we see Norton causing the explosion in Golden Cave in his trailer.

Then regarding the sulfuric acid, this actually made me wonder if the contamination in Lakeside, revealed in Yidhra’s letters, could be related to or from Golden Cave.

Ground water is water that seeps into the ground via rain or snow melt. As it makes its way underground, it can collect or react to the minerals and rocks down there, including pyrite, which can eventually result in the oxidation (and all its problems) I described earlier. This can percolate to form sediment at the bottom of rivers with mine drainage, which is water drained from mines. Acid runoff further dissolved heavy metals into water, and acid mine drainage can be increased by the action of certain bacteria (aka, sulfuric acid from pyrite can leech heavy metals from rock, and the acid can be worsened by bacterial action, resulting in this drainage becoming highly toxic).

Problems with mine drainage include contaminated drinking water, disrupted growth and reproduction of plants and animals, and corroding effects of acid on structures.

In general, sulfide rich and carbonate poor materials produce acid drainage. In contrast, alkaline rich materials, even with significant sulfide concentrations, often produce alkaline conditions in water.

Abandoned mines can fill with water (flood) because there’s no pumping occurring (the steam engine was 1st invented to solve mine flooding). This results in unabated chemical reactions, potentially making it very toxic, and this water can even discharge into lakes and streams, killing aquatic life and polluting the environment.

Further acid drainage can result from waste rock, which is material that must be removed to reach the ore. It is often deposited in piles close to the mine, and as it is exposed to air and moisture, it causes weathering, which can generate acid drainage.

Yidhra’s 3rd letter does mention “microbial deposits” in the water and soil as well as the soil’s “acidity and alkalinity”. So maybe it could be connected…?

Part 2

Thoughts regarding specifically how Norton escaped Golden Cave

Norton’s 3rd letter states the police report claimed Norton “dug his way out through a mountain creek a few dozen meters away from the mine”.

It is unlikely Norton simply dug himself out from the mine.

Golden Cave’s backstory states it was “hundreds of meters” deep at least. Mines back in that day (late 19th century) were already 1000s of feet deep (1 was 700-900m = 2300 – 3000ft). Prior to the 1850s, miners could simply walk in to a mine to get where they needed to go, but later on, the mines became so deep, they had to use steam elevators to enable access to deeper seems.

We know Norton was trapped in Golden Cave for some time after the mine collapse considering we know he came out with meteorite chunks. Based on what we see on the lowest level of Golden Cave in game, this likely implies the meteorite was potentially at the bottom, meaning there’d be quite some distance to dig himself out.

The other issue is most miners don’t simply dig themselves out after a collapse. There’s nothing to support the roof and sometimes little space to put the material you remove, not to mention usually a lack of suitable tools. Trying to dig yourself out of a collapsed mine may even weaken the area near the collapse, potentially causing further collapses. This is why most miners usually have to wait to be rescued.

It is possible that Norton was able to access an alternate escape route. Mines were required to have more than 1 shaft following the Hartley mine disaster in 1862. If it or a raise (vertical or inclined passage) had a safety ladder, it’s possible he could work his way back up. During the Barnes-Hecker mine disaster (the mine was flooded), the sole survivor saved himself by climbed 80 stories (around 800 feet) in just about 14 minutes.

Another option is via an intake airway (or downcast shaft), which brings fresh air from the surface into the underground mine. Miners could feel the air to figure out a way out of the mine, and this was breathable air, free from fumes and dust in the case of a fire or explosion. A return airway (upcast shaft) is also an option, but not as nice of one due to the fact it carried air out of the mine to the surface, and this air could include dust, toxic fumes, and such. But miners have escaped via vents before (such as in the Quecreek Mine disaster, which they did to escape the mine as it started flooding).

And if acid mine drainage is potentially related to the pollution and dead animals/plants in Lakeside (Yidhra’s 3rd letter, Grace trailer/deductions), maybe that means there was drainage or some other hole into or out of the mine around there that Norton could’ve used to escape. Norton’s deduction 9 does make it sound like police didn’t expect anyone to survive, which could imply the normal entrances or exits were inaccessible following the collapse, meaning using an alternate, less known route might make sense. We know Norton was knowledgeable, and in the trailer we see him with a map, though based on how his coworkers in that scene look like they might take it from him, he might not have had that, but he may have at least memorized the different ways in and out, and thus how he could manage to escape (especially as explosions can damage the lifts they use to normally get down to the deeper levels).

Norton likely survived due to being some distance from the blast. Some of his coworkers likely died from the initial explosion. The others potentially could’ve succumbed to lack of oxygen, potentially aided if any fires started as a result (which could further weaken supports or cause more collapses), or due to potentially high concentrations of firedamp further down. Afterdamp (choking gas) is a mix of toxic gases (carbon dioxide, carbon monoxide, and nitrogen) after a methane explosion, and it is just as deadly as the actual explosion. Symptoms include head swimming/disorientation, feeling very tired, difficulty doing anything or exerting yourself, and a desire to just close your eyes and go to sleep (followed soon by death from the lack of oxygen).

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WHOOPS

I may be the dumbest person in the world. In my defense I came back from a long trip and could'nt find it. I swear I've read it before but uh ohhhh uhhhhhh yea uhhh pretend that last message didn't exist and uhhh ZZZZZZZZZZZZZ

Hey hey! You're not dumb! For 1 thing, I enjoy helping people whenever I can. And 2, you can say I'm making it a bit easier for you to find ;)

At some point, I should make 1 post and put all my analyses in there, then update it as I add more. That'd make it easier for everyone I imagine. Maybe once I have more time (and if I stil l have motivation after DS/nymph) I can try.

And please don't feel bad! I seriously don't mind! So don't call yourself dumb. It can be hard to search through all my nonsense, so having trouble finding it and missing it is understandable (i do that alot myself).

Everything's ok ;)

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Couldn't help wondering.

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the shrouded belostain

Can you do an analysis on the shrouded belostain? Or however it’s spelled. I wasn’t around for the event and I reread all the transcripts from it and it seems pretty interesting. I remember you mentioned you’re been playing the game for awhile, even before there was really any concrete stories so I would like to hear your thought on it, Y’know?

I feel quite embarrassed to share my theories and would rather hear ideas from someone more theory-qualified than me. Y’know?

I actually have written an analysis for it! I honestly really enjoy the Truth & Inference story (more than the main story). Mostly at least. Zinaida was... so-so for me compared to past events (though the story wasn't as bad. And this latest one, The Voyage of Oceanus, felt really fillery. But the global anniversary events (at least in my opinion) have usually been at least to some degree better than the chinese anniverary event (at least in terms of a bit more impact to the story), so I'm hoping the upcoming T&I event for global will be better.

I did package the Belostain event analysis with the other T&I event analyses, but I did sort them (chronologically) so it shouldnt be too hard to find Belostain if that's the only 1 you want.

Here's the link for the Truth & Inference Analysis up to The Shrouded Belostain.

For a bit more, here's Truth & Inference Analysis on the Ulliel Laboratory, Belostain, & Zinaida.

I have not and likely won't analyze The Voyage of Oceanus, because honestly there isn't really anything to analyze (and it really does feel mostly like filler).

Hopefully this helps!

(And also, please don't feel afraid to share your thoughts or theories on the story! I honestly feel the exact same, as I am a naturally very anxious person, so at the very least feel free to share them here! Don't worry if they're wrong. It's not like I've gotten everything right all the time either. It's just fun to think and theorize sometimes, at least for me. I always enjoy hearing others' thoughts! I actually tend to go looking for others' theories if possible before writing up anything myself, as it helps me think.)

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ask coavll live end ?

If you're asking if Frederick, Professor, Ada, Emil, and Qi live at the end of the COA7 story, based on what we know, they do "live", but they've pretty much given in to (and been taken over by) the infection caused by the fungus.

And the infected are said to 1) "remain unconscious and experience frequent dreams" (as we see in the COA7 trailer), and 2) "Infected vagrants have developed religious beliefs about their dreams and the apocalypse."

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For those looking for Deduction Star/Nymph Awards vote counts for just 2023

Final (and Near Final) Votes for All Characters for IDV's Deduction Star 2018-2023 and Nymph Awards 2022-2023

(I spent way too long on this. It was ridiculously hard to find info for everyone besides the winners... I couldn't find final counts for everything, but I tried my best to find at least as close to the final counts as I could...)

Deduction Star 2018

Deduction Star 2019

Deduction Star 2020

Deduction Star 2021

Deduction Star 2022

Deduction Star 2023

Nymph Awards 2022

Nymph Awards 2023

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Andrew's 4th Letter and Who's With Him

(Doing this for @LEx2THA on twitter's request)

We know:

3-0-1 is Andrew, 3-1-3 is Antonio, and the Will brothers (Polun) are with them. 3-?-2, 3-1-4, and 3-1-5 are the unknowns.

Polun I suspect is 3-?-2, as Andrew's 3rd letter mentions 3-?-2 and 3-1-3 having "noticeable emotional expressions". Based on Polun's personality + the fact they wear masks, they'd fit the "noticeable emotional expressions" descriptions. Then there's how in their 2nd letter, they mention Andrew started avoiding them after they asked him to "play a supporting role in their performance". This matches with Andrew in his 3rd letter stating he avoids 3-?-2 (and 3-1-3).

And Polun's 2nd letter mentions them getting dizzy after a feast, and 3-1-2 is described to be 1 of the first to be affected by the drugged wine during a "dinner party".

3-1-4 and 3-1-5 are harder to determine.

What we know about 3-1-4 is that they are polite, have themes involving trauma and faith, and are eliminated after being involved in arson beneath a stage.

My best guess at the moment is that 3-1-4 could be Sangria, who also has themes of faith and trauma in her story (faith related to the red lady, and trauma such as how her father beat her offstage and saw her as a toy). The ending of her backstory and deductions, where she leaps into a fire after a performance would fit with potentially being eliminated after a fire near a stage.

My current issue with her is I'd like confirmation Sangria is alive/real (not saying she is or isn't, just I wish I was more certain), as dead hunters aren't participants of the games (ex: Mary, Wu Chang, etc…).

There is Matthias, who we know burns Louis backstage and causes his parents' deaths would relate to the arson/elimination bit too, but the faith bit doesn't seem to fit with him.

There is someone like Ann, who does have faith themes in her story, but we know she's with Alva (based on her 2nd leter), who doesn't appear to be one of Andrew's teammates, and ergo I don't think she's here either.

That leaves 3-1-5. We know that they're good at disguising their true intentions, at sensing other's emotions, are hostile to Andrew, and wear a "facade created through acting" (uses when he lies to Andrew via fake praise). And they may eliminate Andrew and 3-1-4.

Honestly, based on the little we know about Florian from his recent trailer, I wonder if he may be 3-1-5. In a sense he is in the "spotlight" based on the whole bit with him being a "miracle" and how he "learned to play along with the stories" to receive more sympathy and donations, though we know from his trailer and hints from his backstory that he likely starts a fair number of fires (like in the scene where he drops a match with some nun not far away). So he would be the type not to be bothered by endangering or eliminating others. And it's also possible, based on his outlook about his parent's love still being with him, just "absorbed into the flames", and him being a miracle due to their sacrifice, which alleviates his pain at not seeing them, could be why he might be hostile to Andrew.

Andrew's mother did all she could to protect Andrew, but Andrew wants to die to be with her.

Compared to Florian, who may believe he is a "miracle" resulting from his parents' love, parents that did all the could to protect him.

Maybe he'd dislike the idea of Andrew throwing away his life after all his mother did to protect him?

I don't know, it's a bit hard for me to describe my thoughts rn, but hopefully I got at least some of it across.

(And we really do need Florian's deductions to know for sure.)

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Thoughts on The Voyage of Oceanus 2nd Trailer

So Frederick is using toxins on people (causing them to see “visions” aka hallucinations), implying he is indeed the one causing the events on the ship (essentially the “antagonist” to a degree). And the toxins he’s likely using are the jellyfish toxins too.

He knows who Mr. Inference is, meaning he was likely the “client” (the supposed last survivor of the voyage from 25 years ago) who asked Inference to be here. (I still think it’s possible the 1 to give Infy the disguise is someone else.)

Considering we can now confirm DM is involved (again), I still wonder if he was the 1 to give Inference the fake identity/disguise. If he’s working with Frederick, DM would be aware of what Frederick was doing and what roles would be needed. And I still think he might do it just to laugh at making Inference play dress up, especially in a style Inference doesn’t like.

That still leaves the issue of what Frederick’s goal is from infecting people with the toxins. He’s noting what visions people see, so it could be another drug experiment and he’s working to improve it (if he did something to the jellyfish toxins to make them more effective). That or maybe improving the toxins could be important if it’s being used as an ingredient for another drug (any of the ones DM or Ulliel has been developing, or a different one/his own)? There were my thoughts that it could somehow involve whatever happened with Frederick’s father, his own research, and/or whatever previously happened on the ship 25 years ago.

Potentially to recreate or even manage to do better than what he accomplished to prove he is skilled compared to what we heard about no one “directly” in writing his father’s knowledge/skill and such.

Either way, seems I’ve gotten a good bit of my predictions correct so far just based on the trailer ;)

(The Voyage of Oceanus Predictions)

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Predictions for The Voyage of Oceanus

(I made guesses last year for the Zinaida event and managed to correctly guess Andrew was the culprit/killer before it was revealed, so I wanted to try to do that again this year before we got too much info or any answers)

Main Predictions

Frederick is the antagonist (as in he will be the cause of the events that occur during this event or at least a contributor to some degree)

The jellyfish toxins will be the cause of everyone going crazy/behaving abnormally and whatever hallucinations they see (ex: my guess is it is the reason behind Alice's behavior and what she said she saw to Inference)

Charles will be involved in whatever incident Inference has to solve but won't be the actual true culprit (this is a guess based on Charles' backstory, as his actions indirectly lead to the (accidental) death of his friend. As it was indirect, that's why I guess in this event Charles will either be falsely suspected to be the culprit or may play a minor role in what happens but he won't do anything super bad, at least on purpose)

Violeta may seem dead but may not actually be truly dead (based on how she likely survives in canon after Joker leaves her to die in the snow, and how I wonder if she'll be involved in the "guest performance" referenced in Mike's 3rd letter)

Side Notes/Predictions

That agreement Branley had many of the personnel aboard the ship on his voyage sign is suspicious, the same one that Mr. Worthington didn't have to sign as he wasn't part of the "core personnel". Secretive agreements usually imply something up. "Trying to hide their research discoveries" feels like whatever they found out could be important, and the crew 25 years later will likely discover whatever it was considering Inference makes a comment about doing so during the event. Not sure yet about this, just wanted to call out it's suspicious and stood out to me.

Speaking of suspicious, there's also that letter from whoever provided Inference with his disguise. No idea who this is. I did try to think about who it could be, but many of my guesses didn't feel quite right (I wondered about Wu Chang, but we know nothing about him or why he'd help. There's Paranormal Detective, but he wouldn't do something like this. There's Fiona, who does do disguises, but I'm not quite sure. There's White, but like Paranormal Detective, as Inference knows him, I doubt he'd do something in this fashion. My big random guess is DM, even if just because he'd get a laugh out of making Inference dress in the type of outfit Inference detests. That and DM seems to be the reason Inference gets involved in a lot of the cases we see during these anniversary events. So yea, he's so far my first guess, but who knows.)

Frederick was the "benefactor" to spend a "huge amount of money" building this copycat ship and getting all the exact details, down to the roles people play, as similar as possible. So with how long he spent to prepare this, it contributes to the idea that Frederick could be behind whatever incident occurs during this event aboard the ship.

I don't quite know why, but for some reason Keigan mentioning the "blue jellyfish pendant" stood out a lot to me. (Honestly I at first didn't really read everything, but I paused after seeing that mentioned). Not quite sure why, but reading it made me wonder if whatever this was would be important, or if it appearing or disappearing would be important for this event. I actually reread everything after that, which was when I realized it belonged to this "Professor Schelling". It was only then that I made the connection "Hey, Frederick's S-tier has blue jellyfish themes all over his outfit". Maybe if Frederick was tied to this Schelling person, that could explain why he'd put so much effort into recreating this ship and voyage. Then from there, I noticed it mentions Schelling's "acedemic achievements" weren't "directly inherited", with his children being "too young" to learn anything of "scientific value". Not "directly inherited" makes me think of Frederick in canon who didn't inherit his family's musical talent. And I had to reread the children bit twice to realize it's not saying he didn't have children. He did, they were just too young. So his children were the ones that didn't "inherit" that stuff from the previous line. Ergo, Frederick might be the kid of this Professor Schelling. So even if he wasn't very knowledgeable about science initially, considering the science books in his room, it seems he might've tried to fix that, potentially similar to Frederick trying to be a famous musician despite not having the same musical skills as his family. If Frederick is recreating what happened 25 years ago, and his father was involved, maybe he's trying to prove he is just as good as his father? I'm also thinking of parallels to Frederick in canon and why he's going after the Blue Hope gem...

Similar to how I wonder if Orpheus drugs the participants by including it in their meals, I wonder if the jellyfish toxins will poison people by being included in people's meals. Frederick did mention it can affect people if ingested. That would potentially mean Demi might be working with Frederick, since she prepares people's foods. Considering how Demi seems to be working with the manor owner and her roles in other events, this wouldn't surprise me too much. Her name is "Siren" after all, so this sort of role, especially if she's giving people toxins that could cause hallucinations like a siren's song might, seems fitting for her codename.

The mention of electromagnetic fields reminds me of some of the research/theories I wrote regarding Jose, as I remember discussing how electromagnetic fields, like what is mentioned in Wu Chang's letters regarding events during Jose's game, can affect compasses, which can lead to people getting lost, which I remember due to my research regarding Jose's Bobolink skin (bobolinks are birds that can navigate via electromagnetic fields, and will fly in the wrong direction due to mesing with those fields). I remember the event mentioned Inference's clock being frozen at 6:30. I wonder if this'll be important somehow. (I also just find all the potential connections to stuff I did for Jose funny and had to call it out. Works out I already did all this research so I know about some of this already ^_^')

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Orpheus' 2nd Character Day Letter

If the purpose of the loan had to do with a clinic and hospital, that implies the loan was likely due to someone being ill or injured. For the wealthy obviously implies who the borrower was.

Considering this is Orpheus' letter, and we know the DeRoss couple was "wealthy" (based on the original Oletus Manor backstory, comments Alice makes, Burke and Bonbon's deductions, and Orpheus' tale, especially with how the massacre to some extent had to do with greed), the DeRoss couple were likely the borrowers. That and it specifically has the context of the time of the "incident" based on the Oletus Family massacre. This matches with the Borrower (likely Dennis, especially as the line about the borrower uses the word "him") being deceased, and his family also being deceased (his wife) or missing (Alice).

If Dennis was the borrower, it seems likely he acquired the loan for someone in his family, meaning the purpose of the loan was 1 of them. In Time of Reunion, 1 of the lines Orpheus hears talks about the mother's (Dennis' wife and Alice's mother) condition worsening. Ergo, she was who the loan was for.

This lines up with a page from the artbook, which actually discusses Dennis' wife's affliction:

Dear ◼︎︎

Your wife's lung cancer is getting worse again and you need to implement more advanced treatment.

Unless you pay for her medical care as soon as possible, we cannot do anything for her.

◼︎︎ Doctor, 1887

Then there's the question of the lender. Based on the mention of "advanced treatment", it's likely the loan was quite large and thus the lender must've been similarly wealthy, especially if even someone of the DeRoss couple's wealth couldn't afford it. Of course, someone we know that is wealthy and has ties to the DeRoss couple, my first thought is the Barriere family.

First to mind is Count Barriere, who we know is very wealthy, is tied to shady happenings, had a signature on the same page as Dennis, and we know he gives out loans based on the IOU owned by someone with the signature "D" that he wants Lily to reclaim. It's not guaranteed to be him though, not to mention the IOU Lily is after is still to be paid and is tied to "Mediterranean Development" and a copy of Orfeo, while the loan in this letter was "repaid 2 weeks after the tragedy".

We know it can't be Lily's father, Reger, but Reger was said to only be the 2nd son. So it's possible maybe the 1st son gave out this loan. The only reference to a Barriere that isn't confirmed to be Count Barriere is from Freddy's 4th letter, which references a "Keogh & Barriere law office". Though it may feel a bit odd if the co-partner for the law office referenced here is the one that has been imprisoned for so long. It's possible the 1st son isn't related to this law office, but he still could have given the loan.

Though it'd also be curious if the 1st son was tied to this law office and the lender for this loan considering Freddy, a financial advisor, in that case would be connected via both his 4th letter and his mention in Orpheus' 2nd letter.

There's also how Freddy's background mentions a "failed lawsuit" in his past. If Freddy is his the lender's lawyer, I wonder if this could be the "failed lawsuit" from Freddy's past (especially if it happened at least 5 years ago). He should still be his lawyer even if Freddy lost the lawsuit and couldn't prevent his client from being imprisoned. And if his client were a Barriere, maybe that could tie at least somewhat to why after this failed lawsuit Freddy's life seemed to decline after, based on after that case Freddy was said to be "toiling away at a menial job with a pathetic wage". With someone as high up as the Barriere family, it's possible he could've suffered some sort of punishment or something for being unable to prevent him from being imprisoned.

This is just a bunch of my current thoughts, so who knows what's right.

I do find it curious the loan was paid 2 weeks after the tragedy. I wonder if either someone paid it off for Dennis, or if maybe the manor was seized and used to pay it off, and thus potentially how it could then be bought by Manus, and then later bought by Orpheus.

As for the loan being signed 6 months before the massacre, I do admit I wonder if it's possible it is connected somehow someway to why the massacre happened at all (which I still wonder if Barriere helped cause).

Though if Dennis was wealthy, was he just having trouble paying for his wife's treatment because it was a very expensive treatment, or I wonder if people stealing from his manor (based on Bonbon's deduction 4 that implies Orpheus's parents, maybe helped by Orpheus himself or not, were taking "valuable items" from the manor due to their greed) was causing Dennis enough trouble that he was forced to ask for a loan rather than be able to pay himself. If so, I wonder if that was on purpose to pressure Dennis (to what end, I don't know. Why was it important for all of this to happen if so?), but maybe I'm thinking too hard again.

(Doing this at all because I enjoyed having an actually interesting letter for once, compared to what we're getting for people's 5th character days, enough to talk again. Will see how I continue to feel. Still taking it easy)

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Hello, what decisions of Netease made you upset? I genuinely dont know that they do now...

Just stupid reasons. Such as who they picked for certain skins (still unsure if I should be more specific, but I will say my name is a hint about 1 of them >_>). I've been taking some time to cheer myself up at least. Maybe if I'm feeling up to it I might try talking a bit more again.

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what happened to your twitter account ?

I'm... fairly depressed/upset over some of Netease's decisions.

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I'm rather curious, while there isn't much on the Barriere family as a whole what are some of your thoughts and theories about them? (If you're willing to share that is). For me personally, it feels like there's an underlying and sinister air to them.

Honestly the big one that I constantly think about that I've had for quite some time that I continue to wonder when we'll get enough proof to confirm or deny it is whether Count Barriere was involved in causing or helping instigate/worsen the tragedy that killed Alice's parents, the DeRoss couple. (Whether that means he helped Orpheus' parents, the forest rangers, acquire the help they needed attacking the place, or potentially gave them the idea to steal from it, or something else, I don't know but I do wonder.)

We know he owns the land the manor is on, and he frequently appears in places connected to death, including Moonlit River Park and Golden Cave (Kreiburg Racecourse by extension of Lily's father. Potentially Lakeside too due to it's proximity to Golden Cave and the manor, as we know he owns the mountains Golden Cave is located at, the same mountains where the manor is, and thus its possible he could own the land where Lakeside is potentially).

Barriere also seems to have more mysteries surrounding him than even Orpheus, because we have no idea about his motivations or main goal.

Lily's S-tier essence implies his use of Golden Cave to earn his fortunes, as well as potentially hints at a "curse". Golden Cave's rumor states that, despite not finding gold, Barriere "still got what he wanted with this land". And we know the only thing that came out of the mine were Norton, his meteorite chunks, and the deaths of the other miners.

Lily's final deduction references an agreement between Barriere and "a person with the signature 'D'" where Barriere loaned to this other person a "'Mediterranean Development' bond worth £100 and a copy of 'Orfeo' published in 1881". It potentially hints at some of his interests, but we also know the Count sent Lily to the manor to "reclaim what is mine". Like Lily's essence, the bond could hint at monetary motivations, or it's possible he wants the results of that "Mediterranean Development", which could refer to the delphi fern or the drugs made using it. Orfeo... maybe that'd be a hint towards him pontetially manipulating Orpheus to some degree. I'm not quite sure yet. These are just some quick, off the top of my head thoughts.

Then there's also that paper titled "Contracting Parties" with the image of Alice's pocket watch from the Ashes of Memory (part 1) Concept Video that references both Dennis (presumably Dennis DeRoss despite the odd spelling) and Count Barriere. Likely implies 3 of these watches were made according to the quantity listed. I assume Alice got 1 of them, Dennis or his wife (or I guess Orpheus) have a 2nd, and then maybe the 3rd went to Barriere? But there's no info yet as to how these watches may be important beyond informing us of a connection or business relationship betwen Barriere and DeRoss.

The only reoccuring themes with Count Barriere seem to be money and death, but he also keeps ending up linked to a lot of important locations, including the manor itself. We likely will have to wait quite a bit before we get any more answers.

This was just a big... crack theory I've had on him. Honestly, besides that, whenever I have a question I'm attempting to solve, 1 of the 1st things I consider is whether or not Barriere's invovled or could be the answer ^_^; . This man appears so much yet we know so little that it bugs me so I end up literally grasping at crumbs and coming up with these crack theories that are based on very little (mostly only because we know very little to start with and there's not much to work off of, so I just do my best to think). I want to know so bad!!!

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What Arbor Day/2022 lore ?

My best summary of the event:

Eli is a wandering bard who's home, once a lush forest, has transformed into a desert after 10 years.

Demi runs Desert Inn, which she opened with her brother. He created a fruit punch recipe using wild berries they picked together as they wandered the world until his disappearance some years ago. As she's awaited his return, she watched the forest cut down for fuel and construction of markets and pubs that took business away from her fruit punch sales using the recipe her brother left for her.

Eli stays at the inn, telling her he's awaiting friends he promised to reunite with under the ash tree to celebrate Ashen Day to show their appreciation for nature by singing and playing music.

Eli then meets Robbie, a child who no longer has his parents or sister and currently lives at the inn after the Juniper tree he used to live under was cut down.

After Robbie is Naib. The ash tree reminds him of home, a faraway place he's had to get used to being away from but was destroyed while he was away. He now makes a living by "running errands" for others and sends what he earns to his mother.

Next is Antonio, a "world-class violinist" who's played for the king and princess but detests how nobles have ruined nature while attempting to replicate it in their art. He's fallen in love with the princess, who he promises to return to on "the day I promised" but tells her to stop looking for him until then, and at the moment is looking for "extraordinary" inspiration and "nostalgia".

Victor arrives last to deliver a letter, but is encouraged to join in the festivities by the others.

It's then that Eli reveals they are the "friends" he'd been awaiting (he was searching for people like him who want change) and asks that they reunite when the ash trees bloom.

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Thoughts on Season 30 Essence 3

The Prologue begins by saying to the audience “Once upon a time … Where did this happen? Outside, or within?” and later on “Where is the stage: outside or within?”. Sangria’s description “The distorted opening hints at the truth—Is this a magnificent stage or an icy cage?” In the original opera, the setting was essentially within Bluebeard’s soul, or “within”. Here, Sangria is implying that “cage” is the correct answer, as we see from the state of the previous leading actresses Judith finds. Sangria’s role seems to represent the original opera’s prologue, as well as the darkness at the start and end of the opera, especially as she is the one we see at the end of the trailer closing the door Bluebeard is in after the actresses escape.

Judith’s description includes “A heroic musketeer was never needed in her script”. This is a reference to the original Bluebeard fairy tale.

In the original, Bluebeard’s newest wife originally repelled by his beard but decides to marry due to his wealth) curiosity leads her to opening the 1 door she was told not to, where she finds the dead bodies of Bluebeard’s previous wives. She’s unable to hide this fact as the key she used was now stained with blood she was unable to clean off, and when Bluebeard finds out, he promises to kill her, but she manages to delay it temporarily. She uses this time to tell her sister (the main character was the younger of the 2) and ask her to look out for their brothers and signal them for help. Before the girl can be killed, her brothers, described as “musketeers” in some versions, arrive and kill Bluebeard, saving her.

Unlike in the original tale, in canon, Perfumer aka Chloe killed her sister, and so she wouldn’t have anyone to come to her aid. More ironic is how her sister, the real Vera, actually had been trying to help Chloe, but Chloe thought she was being betrayed. Chloe pretends to be “Vera” from then on, but later does realize her tragic error, though it’s too late by then. Her life is much better than it was before, and despite her guilt, she is also unwilling to give up being “Vera”. Vera wants to escape her guilt (rather than atone) by making herself forget. As we see in her 1st letter, she is trying to prove that she can be fine on her own, similar to how Judith in this essence states she has no need for anyone to rescue her.

With Duke Bluebeard, it mentions building “thicker walls”. In the opera, Judith is essentially the one breaking down his walls, as the story does take place “within” his soul.

(Murro even mentions only having 1 toy and walls in his 1st deduction.)

Up until at least door 5, Bluebeard is actually encouraging Judith to open the doors. And up until door 5, more and more light enters the castle, as the initial reason Judith says she wants to open the doors is because the castle is dark and she wants to let in some light. Upon opening door 5, that is when the most light appears, with it being almost blinding in intensity. But for door 6 and door 7, Bluebeard tells her not to open it, and when opening door 6, only darkness pours out, though door 7 isn’t as dark, as “pale moonlight” streams out. The contents of doors 1-5 are covered in blood, while the 6th contains a lake of tears and 7 contains Bluebeard’s previous wives.

Bluebeard in the original story killed his previous wives, and in the opera they were a memory/mental image he kept of them, like a trophy, as they still left an influence on him and thus a mark was left in his mind.

This seems to be an accurate interpretation considering in the Season 30 Essence 3 trailer, Bluebeard tells Judith to “become an eternal treasure of mine”.

Speaking of the trailer, this essence seems to be a combination of both the original Bluebeard story and the opera. At the start Bluebeard seems to be about to leave Judith and he tells her specifically not to open the 7th door, which lines up with the original Bluebeard story, as does all the riches and wealth she finds behind doors 1-6 with what we see Judith finding in the trailer. The introduction for the play given by Sangria, as well as the Murro ending in alone in the darkness, the use of the name “Judith”, and in a way the fact she finds the previous leading actresses “alive” lines up with the opera’s story.

 Unlike Bluebeard, Murro has done nothing similarly evil, so it is more likely the memories behind each door and the mental image of the previous wives are more of the pain in his past as well as the loss of everyone after the tragedy and after game 8.

At door 5, Bluebeard proudly presents his country, though Judith notices blood colored clouds passing over it. Considering Murro’s backstory, this may parallel Hullabaloo circus itself before the tragedy, with doors 1-4 (which contained a torture chamber, armory, treasury, and a garden) potentially relating to the pain Murro suffered under Bernard.

Hullabaloo on the outside seemed like a great place, just like Bluebeard’s lands, but also just like the blood red clouds Judith sees, Hullabaloo held a darkness not everyone noticed until too late. Even Mike in his 4th letter states “It took that incident to make me realize that this so-called family of ours is no better than a stinking sewer. Only after tearing apart the veil on it was I able to realize that it was infested with mediocrity, jealousy, and blood”.

That could also be a good connection to the “lake of tears” behind door 6.

Finally with door 7, this could in part tie into Murro’s “loneliness”, which he references in his 4th letter: “Everyone is gone. If I too die here, please bury me with my friends. At least I won't be too lonely then”. Even with how he refers to the 2 previous actresses as “treasures” could reference how even Murro still somewhat cared for his memories with Mike and Joker, as he says in his 4th letter (after game 8 has finished): “Yes, if only it was a nightmare. I would rather be jolted awake by Bernard's whistle while he gazes at me with a boar on a leash, and Mike is busy bickering with Joker while practicing juggling”. But just like Bluebeard being left alone in the darkness when everyone escapes, Murro is left all alone, after both the tragedy and especially after game 8 when everyone dies, to the point Murro begs for death because “everyone is gone”. He just asks that he be “[buried] with my friends”.

I also find it ironic that Murro is the 1 trapped at Hullabaloo by Bernard and the 1 who wanted to escape from the circus and suffered under Bernard yet he is playing the role of Bluebeard, while Perfumer aka Chloe who killed her own sister aka Vera after she suspects Vera betrayed her is playing Judith (similar to Bluebeard in the original story killing the wives when he learns of their essential “betrayal” when they open the door he tells them not to).

Regarding Demi and Fiona as the previous actresses paralleling Bluebeard's previous wives, their descriptions mentioning being in this land "forever" relates to how in the opera Bluebeard says that dawn, night, etc.. are their's forever (he found 1 at daybreak, 1 at noon, 1 at evening, and Judith at night, and each essentially represents those, though in the essence there's only 2 rather than 3 previous women).

Forever is a reference to them being mere memories, as no one can actually live forever, which is another reference to the opera taking place "within" aka the soul, though in the essence they "slumber" eternally.

And just like the descriptions, in the opera Bluebeard describes his previous wives as overwhelmingly beautiful, which again goes back to the idea that he's kept an ideal mental image of each of them at their peak.

As for the others, Servais is a detective brought here by a "ticket" holding "clues", a ticket that likely came from Bonbon considering its description mentions sometimes "secrets slip out". Servais seeking the "truth" reminds me of Judith in the original opera opening all the doors due to her curiosity and the same desire to "inch closer to the truth". Of course, Servais here parallels how he came to the manor after Murro's disappearance, as him being tasked to find Murro is just like his role as detective, except in this essence he is likely here due to the disappearances of the previous actresses (compared to him arriving due to Murro’s disappearance).

Philip as a "Harsh Critic" implies unlike others he is less enthused about the play. His opinion about "beauty" is likely a reference to his belief in physiognomy (he may see them captured women, with how they're described as that beautiful, as being innocent like his sister?)

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maybe quite easy question, but what is your opinion about gertrude in eli's lore? most people believe she is nice and loves eli back, but something doesn't seem right for me... there's not much info about her feelings towards eli as far as i could find, so i doubt she thinks about him as a lover at all qwq

I agree, there isn't much info on her beyond Eli's deductions and letters, and we only hear her actually speak in 2 of Eli's deductions. So it really would be nice to learn more about her to give all of us a better idea about who she is. But I don't think there's enough info to say she has bad intentions yet.

It's clear Eli loves her a lot. His deductions and letters to her make that abundantly clear. At least from what we have, there are no hints that she was trying to attract him or force him to do anything. It's not like she could've known about his ability before he helped her out and broke his oath in deduction 8. He had been trying his best to keep it secret and follow his promise until then, and based on how deducion 7 describes it as if he's been seeing her several times already, I doubt she'd continue to see him if she truly didn't care. That means she had to have had some interest or friendly relations with him until then.

I'd like to think Eli, considering who he is and is personality and actions in his deductions, is a good person and a good judge of character. So if she were bad, I'd like to think he would've been able to tell. Not to mention we don't know how much of the future he's seen, so if she were intending to betray him, it's possible he would've found out and potentially would've changed how things played out.

But as I said, she could've have known about his ability and tried to woo him just because of it. It also means Eli voluntarily chose to break his oath by helping her family. In the same vein, it doesn't look like she forced him to go to the manor either. He chose to do so.

I also find it interesting his dislikes is stated to include (essentially) mechants aka businessmen, which might include Gertrude's father considering what we hear about him from Gertrude in Eli's deduction 8 after he helps them out. This potentially could've swayed him away from Gertrude, but he loves her anyways, which could mean the 2 truly did love each other enough for him to push past that dislike.

She was also the one to help him try to get his ability back by sewing Brooke's right eye closed. This is based on Eli's deduction 6, which says "Whether the owl opens or closes its eyes, the words of the holy spirit shall not be recorded in tangible things." And Gertrude in Eli's deduction 10 did talk about needing to find a "trick to solving things like this". She didn't have to help him. Eli had already helped her father find success.

I also feel, if Netease was going to have her essentially betray Eli, they would've already revealed it by now. Similar to how they did with revealing Annie's fiance to be bad in Annie's deductions, for example. I don't see why else they'd not at least hint at this by now if so.

I partially wonder if Gertrude could eventually become a playable character considering Eli sends Brooke to her after his game in his 4th letter. If so, this would at least give us a good chance to hopefully hear about her own feelings for Eli and/or what she's been doing.

Apologies if this wasn't a straight forward answer enough, but I hope it helped at least somewhat.

[sirenjose]

think head team 1 is Jerry Miles Lorraine Lily

Possible, though I still feel like having Jerry in 2, right before game 3 with Aesop, would also make sense, but either way it'd be nice to get more info on him and what happened since we know he was in a manor game.

Miles I do wonder if he was in game 7, which is after Martha's game and could potentially line up with him in Michiko's 3rd letter mentioning the manor staff had no news on Martha and had she should've arrived 3 days earlier.

Lorraine I'd love to get more info on her and the rest of the Asylum (especially later on in the timeline), such as details regarding her departure based on what we hear about it from the Asylum backstory.

Lily I'd love to hear the outcome of her trip to the manor, as we know she wanted to get the money from the debt Orpheus owed for her brother.