sometimesitcomeswithashove

[sometimesitcomeswithashove]

2W2O: Two Weeks to Oscar

what we learned (or didn't) from last night's BAFTAs

In the most unpredictable Oscar race for Best Picture I’ve ever seen, the DGA went with Iñárritu the night before while the BAFTA went with Linklater and Boyhood last night, setting up an absolute cliffhanger. Birdman’s wins with the big guilds was something no pundit saw coming. The maxim “Nobody knows anything” has never been more apt. Even the King’s Speech had people predicting it before it took over the race with the Producers Guild.

Birdman lost the Golden Globe, doesn’t have an editing nomination and now lost the BAFTA, which does not seem to make it the strongest Best Picture contender. On the other hand, it does have the magic combination of the three guilds. However, when those have been put together since they expanded Best Picture (2009), the BAFTA has always recognized their winner.

2009 – The Hurt Locker: PGA/DGA/BAFTA/Oscar 2010 – The King’s Speech: PGA/DGA/BAFTA/Oscar 2011 – The Artist: PGA/DGA/BAFTA/Oscar 2012 – Argo: PGA/DGA/BAFTA/Oscar 2013 – 12 Years a Slave PGA/BAFTA/Oscar

And yet here we have:

2014 – Birdman: PGA/DGA/SAG             Boyhood – BAFTA

Boyhood won one of the two Golden Globes picture categories and BAFTA...and BFCA…7 of the last 8 winners of Best Picture there won the Oscar too. So does it matter that Boyhood won there…or not? BAFTA has gotten 6 in a row right…and picked Boyhood…so what does that mean? 

The Grand Budapest beat Birdman head-to-head at the Golden Globes.

So pick your poison. Do The Globes matter…or do they not?  

[sometimesitcomeswithashove]

45 Weeks to Oscar

Most Anticipated of 2014 in terms of Oscar Predictions The blood is just about dried on this year’s Oscar race but throughout the web are predictions for next year’s race. Yes, already. Here’s the thing. It ain’t rocket science. Early Oscar predictions aren’t some kind of magic formula – so people who brag about those are just fooling themselves. The truth is, the Oscar race is an industry that supports another industry – the film industry. There is a pretty good chance the movies that head into the Oscar race are on the radar already before they’re even finished filming, perhaps even before getting financed, sometimes when the book rights are sold. You go by subject matter, director, stars, sometimes producer – almost always Oscar strategist. These films have a 90% chance of making it in. The only thing that stops them is if they are poorly received. Otherwise, their chances are pretty good they fly into the airport, land on the designated runway and glide easily into the gate. Lock and load. So I just never listen to people who say ���I predicted these movies to make it in” and then those movies do, in fact, make it in. They are already being planned for that very thing. They are aimed at the Oscar race, whether we notice them or not. Traditional “Oscar bait” only sometimes flies now. Contenders can have every quality necessary to make it into the race – great reviews, prestige, star power and still just be not the taste of thousands of industry voters. Usually, though, they are. Therefore, if it looks like an Oscar contender, chances are, it’s going to be an Oscar contender. Every so often a movie is actually GOOD first, then given awards, like Beasts of the Southern Wild, Slumdog Millionaire, The King’s Speech – these movies are seen first and then sold as Oscar bait. They aren’t designed from ground level to enter the race. Finding those kinds of films is near impossible because you just don’t know where to look. If you happen to trip upon one and “just have a feeling” it’s going to get in – well good for you. But that’s the same thing as “having a feeling” it’s going to rain on Saturday. You might get lucky but not much skill is involved. It’s all publicity anyway – good for the movies, good for the box office, good for the Oscars themselves. Unless you subscribe to the theory that it’s all bad for movies, and a really good case could be made for that. The contest has been going on for 86 years. Not much about it has changed. The studios still mostly control the awards. Celebrity still mostly drives the race. Likability prevails. It’s still a white man’s game but for a Bigelow or McQueen here or there. Therefore, it isn’t like digging up the Red Sea Scrolls reporting on early contenders at this stage. They are there, we see them, we write about them. Thus, start at the top and work your way down. The only movie that’s an Oscar contender already is Wes Anderson’s The Grand Budapest Hotel. Who knows if it can stay fresh by year’s end (see Fruitvale Station last year). There are going to be major quakes that change perception and introduce new films into the mix. Many of the films that will ultimately be in the race don’t have release dates yet because they haven’t been seen yet. Some of them haven’t been bought yet. They will crop up at Cannes, or Telluride or Toronto. Sometimes the race is studio-heavy, which means projects that will dominate can be seen from this far a distance. Other times, the race is dominated by films that come from out of nowhere. Right now, though, here is a fairly simplistic look at what might be featured in this year’s race in one way or another. You’ll notice that the tentpole/sci fi category is fat with contenders. It would be even fatter if I put in everything. There has to be a smidge of respectability in there to be considered. But this just makes it seem even more apparent to me that the Academy should have a separate category now for “effects-driven films” since they are all but taking over Hollywood. Also, in looking over these lists you’ll notice that only male directors really ascend in Hollywood. They are made into superstars that might have trouble getting financing but always have a seat at the table. It’s much harder for women or minorities to break through. Any old dude will be hired, it seems, to helm any film, even if the director hardly matters to the overall prestige of the movie. Seriously, can women really be that untrustworthy that you can’t put them in charge of Super Piece of Branded Crap Part 6? Top Tier Foxcatcher - directed by Bennett Miller, starring Steve Carell. This was already a big Oscar favorite (sight unseen) last year but now it will be the one Oscar bloggers put at the top of their lists. Gone Girl (October 3) - directed by David Fincher, starring Ben Affleck and Rosamund Pike. The last thing I want to do is stuff this movie into the Oscar paradigm but perception will be all over this thing from the outset. Jersey Boys (June 20) - directed by Clint Eastwood, musical starring Christopher Walken. It’s another one that will make many early lists sight unseen. Interstellar (November 7) - of course any Christopher Nolan joint is going to be potentially a Big Oscar Movie – it probably belongs with the effects-driven tent poles but if anyone can bust the genre prejudice, it’s Nolan. Fury (November 14) - starring Brad Pitt, written and directed by David Ayer, “A crew of Americans in Nazi Germany toward the end of World War II embark on a brave mission.” Inherent Vice (December 12) - directed by Paul Thomas Anderson, starring Joaquin Phoenix, based on a Thomas Pynchon novel. Into the Woods (December 25) - directed by Rob Marshall, starring Meryl Streep and Johnny Depp. This could wildly wrong or it wildly right, one never knows how this will go down. But there is high anticipation for it do well at the Oscars. Untitled Cameron Crowe movie (December 25) - you still have to factor in Cameron Crowe – he’s still an as of yet unrewarded acclaimed director. Starring Emma Stone and Bradley Cooper. Birdman (?) – Directed and written by Alejandro González Iñárritu, starring Michael Keaton. Second Tier Wild Cards Boyhood - directed by Richard Linklater, starring Patricia Arquette and Ethan Hawke. Thelma Adams called this the first Oscar contender of the year. A Most Violent Year - directed by JC Chandor, starring Jessica Chastain, “The film’s story is set during the winter of 1981 in New York City, one of the most violent years on record in the city’s history.” Men, Women & Children - directed by Jason Reitman, starring Adam Sandler, Jennifer Garner The Railway Man (April 11) - Colin Firth – directed by Jonathan Tiplitzky, soldier tortured in Japanese war camp. Million Dollar Arm (May 16) - Jon Hamm, Bill Paxton, directed by Craig Gillespie. ”The film is about a scout who hatched an Indian reality show to find pitching talent, and wound up signing a cricket player and javelin thrower to minor league contracts with the Pittsburgh Pirates. The Rover - David Michod, starring Guy Pearce Jane Got a Gun (August 29) - directed by Gavin O’Connor, plagued by early problems with directors and casting, can it pull it out for an awesome feminist western? The Good Lie (September 10) - starring Reese Witherspoon, “A Sudanese refugee is taken in by a straight-talking American woman in their new home in the United States.” Unbroken (December 25) - directed by Angelina Jolie, lensed by Roger Deakins, co-written by the Coen brothers. It’s going to have to really suck to not figure in somewhere. Tentpole/Oscar/VES Crossover Divergent (March 24) - directed by Neil Burger, starring Shailene Woodley. Noah - (March 28) Darren Aronofsky’s religious epic. Transcendence (April 18) - Wally Pfister’s movie about “A story centered on a scientist whose brain is uploaded into his creation — a supercomputer with the potential to think for itself — after he is assassinated by anti-technology terrorists.” Starring Johnny Depp. Godzilla (May 16) - primed for multiple fanboygasms. Edge of Tomorrow (June 6) - Tom Cruise, directed by Doug Liman. Dawn of the Planet of the Apes (July 11) - Keri Russell, Gary Oldman. Jupiter Ascending (July 18) - new one from the talented Andy Wachowski, Lana Wachowski, starring Mila Kunis, Channing Tatum, ”In a universe where humans are near the bottom of the evolutionary ladder, a young destitute human woman is targeted for assassination by the Queen of the Universe because her very existence threatens to end the Queen’s reign.” Mood Indigo (July 18) - Michel Gondry, with Audrey Tautou, big fantasy. Lucy (August 8) - Luc Besson’s usual oeuvre with Scarlett Johansson taking on action hottie role. The Giver (August 15) - directed by Phillip Noyce, starring Jeff Bridges and Meryl Streep, “In a seemingly perfect community, without war, pain, suffering, differences or choice, a young boy is chosen to learn from an elderly man about the true pain and pleasure of the “real” world.” Exodus (December 12) - directed by Ridley Scott, starring Christian Bale, “A retelling of the story of Moses, from his near death as an infant to his adoption into the Egyptian royal family, his defiance of the Pharaoh and deliverance of the Hebrews from enslavement.” It’s been a while since Big Religion had any sort of grip on the Oscar race. Indie model / Spirit Awards Crossover Chavez (April 4) - directed by Diego Luna about Cesar Chavez, starring Michael Pena and Rosario Dawson Joe (April 11) - directed by David Gordon Green, starring Nicolas Cage, “An ex-con, who is the unlikeliest of role models, meets a 15-year-old boy and is faced with the choice of redemption or ruin.” St. Vincent (April 11) - starring Bill Murray, “When a twelve-year-old boy in need of a babysitter moves in next door to a misanthropic aging retiree whose life mainly consists of gambling, hookers, and drinking, the elder becomes an unlikely mentor to the boy.” The Fault in Our Stars (June 6) - starring Shailene Woodley. Blackbird (November 14) - written and directed by Gina Prince-Bythewood. “A talented young musician on the brink of super stardom struggles with the pressure of her new-found success. ” Other Projects of Note Maleficent (May 30) - Angelina Jolie as the iconic villain Annie (December 19) - Reboot starring Jamie Foxx and Quvenzhane Wallis. No one knows how this will go down, probably bad if we judge by the recently released trailer. Serena (no date) - Jennifer Lawrence and Bradley Cooper, again. no release date on it yet; hence unlikely.

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9D2O: 9 Days to Oscars

Is any prediction really safe? Just when I think things are settling in, I am reminded of how little we all know about this season. There is one season it does remind me of a bit…2001. Gladiator beat out Erin Brockovich, Traffic, Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon, and Chocolat for Best Picture. But while the most admired film (Traffic) and the more poppy Soderbergh cousin (Erin Brockovich) may have split the vote, that was not the case in the Director category. Traffic also won Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay, and Editing. Brockovich won Actress. Crouching Tiger took home 3 Oscars. As I recall, Roberts was the only one really considered a lock on Oscar night. This year, it's Leto in that slot. The only other seemingly sure bet is Alfonso Cuaron for directing Gravity. And sure enough, his work this year was a game-changer. The Picture/Director split is not terribly rare. Happens about a quarter of the time. But not a single case exists where a director won over the Best Picture director by being a game-changer. If you want a classic case, though not a split, think of Cameron vs Bigelow. Avatar was a true game-changer and the highest grosser in history. And they went with the person who made an intimate, emotional, low-budget war thriller. I can make a serious argument for hundreds of combinations of outcomes on Oscar night this year. Cate Blanchett has been considered a lock by some from the start. But it isn't remotely challenging to imagine Judi Dench or even Amy Adams going up there to grab the golden boy instead. And some will tell you that Sandra Bullock is now pushing the front of the pack. Well… okay. Matthew McConaughey has been all the rage in Actor lately…but there is also a lot of Leo talk… and the power of Chiwetel Eijofor is still emblazoned on memories, though not with as much current heat. Lupita Nyong’o, Jennifer Lawrence, or June Squibb? You tell me. Princess, Young Queen, Queen Mother. Screenplay? Good luck sorting that out. Do I think that Emmanuel Lubezki will win for Cinematography? Yes. Am I sure. No. Not even close. It's easy to imagine American Hustle taking home 6 Oscars. But it's not that hard to imagine it going home empty-handed either. Likewise, 12 Years A Slave. And here is the problem for The Academy…I don't think many people care much either way. There are passionate supporters of each film, but big picture? There is still no great narrative about this season. Just hasn't happened. The closest to having one is Lupita Nyong’o, but her's has been about her sparkling personality, grace, and beauty, not really about that stunning performance. “Movie X has to win because…” Come on! Someone! Tell me a real reason other than you liked the movie the most. The last 5 years…Ben got screwed. Old Hollywood. Old school storytelling. Bigelow & low-tech over Cameron & high-tech. Internationalism. What is the story this year? The wave of Black-themed films crashed and voting 12 Years is the only way not to be seen as racists? I hate 3D but this is the best 3D yet? David O. Russell has it coming? Not exactly bumper stickers. Philomena is still the passion film out there… but it's so tiny! How can that happen? Should it happen? I have to say, I am pretty agnostic at this point. I have my favorites, but I know that a very good film will win Best Picture and great performances will win the acting categories! I can foresee very few opportunities for me to really feel that anyone is going to win an Oscar this year leaving me feeling like the result was bad. There are three categories in which what would be shockers would make me jump out of my chair and slow clap. But they would be considered upsets by most. The boldest campaign in these post-nomination weeks known as “Phase 2″ has been The Wolf of Wall Street. And why the hell not? I wouldn't mind seeing it work. It would be...fun. On the other hand, if 12 Years A Slave wins, a few moments that come anywhere close to the Harry Belafonte speech at the NY Film Critics Circle dinner would make that a true thrill. But I'm okay with Gravity winning too. And I love American Hustle. And Dallas Buyers Club is a truly remarkable seriously indie indie. I frickin’ LOVE Spike Jonze and Her. Philomena is an emotional delight. Nebraska is daring and smart and intimate. And no one can say that Captain Phillips is anything less than a very well-made, well-acted, compelling movie. Nice year. Nice outfits. Nice host. You really couldn't find a nicer, more talented group of nominees. Let's sit back, relax, and, most importantly, enjoy the show.

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Catching Fire - One of the best sequels ever made.

The best movies always surprise you on some level, even if they're based on well-traveled source material. Sometimes we go to movies to be moved - to experience emotional trials vicariously - and sometimes it simply is escapism. Catching Fire is the rare film that offers a chance to do both. It conveys a social message about the gruesomeness of social inequality, something most blockbusters wouldn't touch. There is a fair comparison of Catching Fire to the great sequels Star Wars: Episode V - The Empire Strikes Back and Star Trek II: The Wrath of Khan to be made, throw The Dark Knight in the mix if you fancy (I don't). They all have the same in common, they outdid its predecessor and elevated its source material from fan-pleasing adaptation to a good-on-its-own-merits film. Does this mean Catching Fire is the best book adaptation sequel since The Godfather: Part II?

  FULL REVIEW YET TO COME.

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Amy Adams, Bradley Cooper, Jeremy Renner, Christian Bale and Jennifer Lawrence in American Hustle!

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Early Oscarwatch: 33 Weeks To Oscar - The Season Without A Frontrunner

The recent pattern dictates that our Best Picture winner will show up either at or before TIFF. It is likely to show up at Telluride, if it hasn’t already opened to the public to great reviews. Box office is not a strong consideration anymore. How the contenders and the studio play the bloggers and voters is a consideration. That means you should look now at what’s opening, or about to about. You should pay close attention to the Telluride lineup, and then the Toronto lineup. If a film is released after that there isn’t enough time to rally a monolithic win. The ship becomes too big to turn around and your Oscar race for Best Picture is mostly finished. I would love to see this change but so far, in the last few years, it hasn’t. It can’t. The monolith is too big. The consensus rules the day.

There are a lot of familiar faces going into the 2013 awards season. Hanks, Streep, Clooney, Scorsese, Ron Howard, The Coens, Payne, Reitman… heck, you pretty much have a do-over with David O. Russell made his own supergroup, combining the forces of The Fighter and Silver Linings Playbook for American Hustle. And yet… in this whole group of films that are generally considered legit contenders, there is nothing with that sense of inevitability that, for instance, last season had with Lincoln or Les Misérables or Life of Pi or Zero Dark Thirty. Everything seems to have question marks around it. I have a list of 23 titles contending for Best Picture at this point. There will be 1 or 2 additions in September, no doubt. More subtractions. The Weinsteins have 6 movies in play, 3 each for Sony, Warner Bros, and Paramount, 2 at Universal, and singles at (in alphabetical order) CBS, Disney, DreamWorks, Focus, Relativity, and Searchlight. The Weinstein Company August: Osage County The Butler (pending title change) Fruitvale Station Grace of Monaco Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom Philomena Paramount Labor Day Nebraska The Wolf of Wall Street Sony/Columbia American Hustle Captain Phillips Monuments Men Warner Bros Gravity Her Prisoners Universal About Time Rush Single Servings Dallas Buyers Club (Focus) The Fifth Estate (DreamWorks) Inside Llewyn Davis (CBS) Out of the Furnace (Relativity) Saving Mr. Banks (Disney) Twelve Years a Slave (Searchlight) There are a few titles I left out, even though the studios involved would like to get them in the game. Focus would like The Place Beyond The Pines to shove its way in, but I don’t see it. All Is Lost is a nice film, but not an awards movie. Blue Jasmine is Woody Allen’s most interesting work in years… but probably an “actress only” proposition. Mud is a tremendous movie… but aside from screenplay, the hill is awfully high. None of the animation this year, so far, is a threat to break out of the Animation category. I can pick 7 or 8 of the titles out of the list for reasons of distributor, release date, and/or assumptions about the films being limited in the range of likely nominations. So the list already feels rather short… which means that there is more opportunity for a surprise entry out of Toronto or a step up from one or two of what now seem like borderline films. Here are your On Paper Nominees: American Hustle August: Osage County The Butler Captain Phillips Inside Llewyn Davis Monuments Men Saving Mr. Banks Twelve Years a Slave The Wolf of Wall Street Don’t misunderstand. I am not saying these 9 are all inevitable nominees. But if you look at them all on paper, this is the group. David O. Russell is 2 for his last 2. Streep and Julia Roberts in the adaptation of a Pulitzer-winning play. Forest Whitaker, also getting a bump as producer of Fruitvale Station, is back with a piece of racial history from the perspective of a man who won by not fighting back. Tom Hanks as the brave captain taking on Somali pirates. The Coens… for the kids. Clooney goes to save stolen art after The War. A movie about a movie (Mary Poppins) with Hanks as Disney and Emma Thompson returning to make us all fall in love with her again. A movie about a free black man who was re-enslaved with a cast of genius actors and a great artist directing. And Scorsese & DiCaprio having flashy Wall Street-smacking fun. But even in those 9… is there really a seemingly clear frontrunner? Here is the inverted perspective of The On Paper Nine… Are they really going to nominate three David O. Russell movies in a row? The play was better than the film… stick with Streep. Lee Daniels makes movies too tough for The Academy and won’t it be all too PC? Pirates… they are going to nominate a movie about pirates? Minor Coens. Sounds more like Kelly’s Heroes than an Oscar movie, George. Mary Poppins… seriously? Does anyone really care about Mary Poppins in 2013? If they were going to embrace Steve McQueen, they would have done already… he makes art, not emotionally accessible movies. It’s not like they nominated After Hours or The King of Comedy. But the heart’s wants change with the times. I’ve only seen 1 of the 9 movies on the On Paper list, so I can’t even come close to knowing which film might hit people like a ton of bricks. Some are thinking that Stephen Frears’ Philomena might be that movie in Toronto. Jason Reitman could hit just the right note for the times. Monument Men could unite the audience in a profound way. Does Cuarón’s Gravity turn out to be much more important than just being a thriller? You never know.

As for directors, how has the year gone down so far and who is in the running right now? Alexander Payne, Nebraska Ryan Coogler, Fruitvale Station Joel and Ethan Coen, Inside Llewyn Davis Jeff Nichols, Mud Richard Linklater, Before Midnight JC Chandor, All is Lost Sarah Polley, Stories We Tell These films have either been released already or were screened at Cannes. It’s a crowded Oscar year already since all of these are very good, highly acclaimed films. Mud has been the surprise indie hit of the season, with a strong performance by Matthew McConoughey. JC Chandor’s All is Lost pulls off a magic trick with beautifully realized film that has no dialogue. Linklater finishes his magnificent relationship trilogy with the best film of the three. Sarah Polley invents a genre of film that is somewhere between fiction and non-fiction autobiography. Ryan Coogler writes and directs one of the most stirring films of the year already, raw and powerfully rendered. Joel and Ethan Coen’s Llewyn Davis was the Jury Prize winner at Cannes and a standout, with one of the year’s best performances in Oscar Isaac and a wayward cat. Finally, the most promising for the big Oscar win, at this very early stage in the game, is Alexander Payne’s best and most personal film to date, Nebraska. It’s a dangerous game to enter the race so soon — it invites critics and bloggers to tear down the movie that is in the frontrunner’s spot so here’s to hoping Nebraska never gets there, at least not yet. Still, if I had to bet right now which of these would get in for Best Director? I’d probably go with: Payne, Coogler, Coens, Chandor. And probably two out of four of these names will. The films that haven’t yet been released or seen, but have the kind of name attached where attention must be paid include: Martin Scorsese, Wolf of Wall Street George Clooney, The Monuments Men David O. Russell, American Hustle Bennett Miller, Foxcatcher Paul Greengrass, Captain Phillips Ridley Scott, The Counselor Jason Reitman, Labor Day Woody Allen, Blue Jasmine Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave Spike Lee, Old Boy Alfonso Cuarón, Gravity Who are the wild cards who will need a boost from critics to be in the running? John Wells, August, Osage County Jean-Marc Vallee, Dallas Buyers Club Lee Daniels, The Butler Spike Jones, Her Sofia Coppola, The Bling Ring Justin Chadwick, Mandela Long Walk to Freedom John Lee Hancock, Saving Mr. Banks Ben Stiller, The Secret Life of Walter Mitty Brad Furman, Runner Runner Of the films that haven’t yet been seen, it is simply too early to start putting them on any lists, but that won’t stop many a blogger from doing it.

I’m kind of excited about a season that might rely so heavily on the movies themselves. Or maybe Forest Whitaker will be snubbed by a taxi driver in Toronto and that will make him the sympathetic character of the season, propelling one of his movies to Best Picture.

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“I think the scene, you know, after my daughter is raped by my pimp boyfriend, and I am so wasted and I visit her in the bathroom while she’s, you know, rinsing herself up and Jennifer was so unbelievably beautiful and sad in that scene. Even off camera, you know, wanting to be in my arms and wanting me to hold her and reaching out to me and I just had to keep throwing, you know, basically ash in her bathtub, just not present at all, not caring about her feelings..that was pretty sad.” (Selma’s most challenging scene in The Poker House x)

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CATCHING FIRE TRAILER!

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The Art of Steadicam

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Jennifer Lawrence’s Acceptance Speech at the LA Film Critics Association Awards 2013 (Uncut)

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Thank you. You guys are just standing up because you feel bad that I fell and that’s really embarrassing but thank you. This is nuts. Thank you to the Academy and thank you to the women this year. You were so magnificent and so inspiring and not just those of you in my category. And it’s been so amazing getting to know you and you’ve been so nice and you’ve made this experience unforgettable. And thank you to the best producing team: Bruce, Donna, Jon and to my team at CAA and IDPR. And Bradley, and our entire cast: Chris, Jacki, Bob and our crew. My family. Happy birthday, Emmanuelle. Thank you so much. Thanks.

[sometimesitcomeswithashove]

my quick take on the Academy Awards 2013

  Since I'm already pumped about the Oscars and not everyone shares my excitement (yet), here's my best bet for the 7 biggest categories. Take them, go out and sound knowledgeable without even having seen all of the nominees; blame yourself, thank me later.

here are the nominees: http://oscar.go.com/nominees

Best Picture

First off, Argo, Lincoln, Zero Dark Thirty and Sliver Linings Playbook are by far the top 4 contenders in the category. Les Mis is the only BP contender I really didn't like (what's with the fast-cutting, Tom Hooper?). Life of Pi had some nice moments and good CGI, yet it was too bollywoodesque to prevail. Beasts of the Southern Wild is everything Sundance stands for. And that might be the curse of it. Still an amazing achievement to get a BP nod.

Now on to the big boys. Lincoln is most likely to win Best Picture. Argo would be an amazing win (keep in mind: it won the SAG), but I question a movie winning BP without being nominated in the Best Director category (-> snubs/fun scenario). Zero Dark Thirty did what few movies could achieve - have me on the edge of my seat eventhough everyone knows what's going to happen in Abbottabad. The second half of the movie is everything cinema needs to be. ZD30 may be the most direct & truthful account of an American war in the history of American studio releases. The sheer audacity of making ZD30…of not feeling the need to tell the other side…of heroism, loss, and failure by the US Gov…is simply stunning. 

But am I the only one who thinks the Best Picture nomination for Amour is kind of wasted? Since it has absolutely zero chance of winning in this category (just like all of the previous foreign language films that scored BP nods in the past), wouldn't it have been nicer to see a film that might have actually benefitted from the recognition (say, Moonrise Kingdom or The Master) get nominated instead? No knock against Amour, which looks to be as much of a lock as A Separation was last year in the Foreign Film category, but, you know. A PTA movie not nominated just seems odd to me.

The Dark Horse pick would be Silver Linings Playbook, which scored the second most nominations and is up in relevant categories for BP. SLP, more than Lincoln, is in a strong position as of now. It earned ALL the major nominations it possibly could, including the seemingly decisive nod of Best Editing. The safe bet would still be Lincoln though, historic figures (and in this case one of America's most loved ones) plus Daniel Day-Lewis. Noone can argue against that.

Best Director

Steven Spielberg vs David O Russell, whereas David O is pretty much the dark horse with all the Lincoln buzz. See the "Fun Scenario" section to see how it actually can not be Spielberg's cake walk.

Best Male Performance

Daniel Day-Lewis, hands down. This man, much like John Hawkes, never ceases to amaze me. Bradley Cooper did a fantastic job in SLP, a performance we've never seen him do before (yes, the guy from The Hangover and no, you should really not refer to him as that), but DDL will sweep this one. He's just too amazing in/as Lincoln. Hugh Jackman did fine, so did Joaquin Phoenix, but Denzel Washington? Mediocre performance (good for his standards, but not anywhere near his fellow nominees). And how the F (excuse my language here) did he surpass John Hawkes' performance in The Sessions (->snubs). That does not make sense in any way. So ya. Daniel Day-Lewis.

Best Female Performance

Jessica Chastain vs Jennifer Lawrence. That's what it comes down to. Since Maya (JC's character in ZD30) didn't change throughout the entire film, I think (hope) Jennifer Lawrence has the edge here. Chastain did a fantastic job, though what carried the movie was the story and not necessarily her performance. Jennifer Lawrence on the other hand. I mean, it's already getting old to praise her talent these days, which is the oddest thing considering she's only 22 y/o. So let's keep doing this for the next, I don't know, 40 years. I'd be fine with that. She also swept all the important leading up awards, such as the tiff, (PCA), CCA, Golden Globe, and most recently the SAG Award.

Also, did you see Marion Cotillard's reaction when Jennifer Lawrence won the SAG Award? If it wasn't for Chastain and Lawrence, I'd root for her after that. That was just a really nice and genuine gesture. 

Best Supporting Actor

A category filled with previous Oscar-winners. Robert de Niro's throwdown acting, which we haven't seen since the early Scorsese-pictures probably vs. Christoph Waltz' performance in Django. I'd love to see CW win this. He carried the entire movie. It should be named "Dr. King Schulz Unchains" IMHO.

Best Supporting Actress

This will go to Anne Hathaway. Her scenes in Les Mis weren't too long yet really good. She has a lot of buzz. The category is quite weak, so I'll leave it at that. Be prepared for another weird acceptance speech!

Best Adapted Screenplay

Lincoln. Strong category. But for it to win BP it has to win here as well. And vice versa.  Do not quote me on that.

Best Original Screenplay 

Amour. Maybe Django, maybe ZD30. But probably Amour. Do not quote me on that either.

Snubs (the first three for real!):

John Hawkes, The Sessions - Best Male Perfomance

Kathryn Bigelow, ZD30 - Best Director

Ben Affleck, Argo - Best Director (not sure if he can work any harder than he did on Argo. Bummer.)

Paul Thomas Anderson, The Master - Best Director 

Leonardo Di Caprio, Django - Best Supporting Actor

Fun scenario

The largest block of voters in the Academy is the actors block. Silver Linings Playbook achieved something not done in over 30 years ... put a nominee in each of the four acting categories. This included Jackie Weaver as Supporting Actress, who virtually no one had on their list. Obviously the actors seem to like this movie. Also one can never discount the Weinsteins. Their track record speaks for itself. 

The academy doesn't really like giving Spielberg awards (7 noms, 2 wins), which could lead to David O Russell winning Best Director. Ben Affleck is not even nominated. Since SLP won in the Best Director category then (and possibly in Adapted Screenplay and Female Performance), this could lead to SLP actually winning BP since it's highly unlikely that a BP did not win BD.

Remember the 1999 Academy Awards. Spielberg's overwhelming favorite, Saving Private Ryan, lost to Shakespeare in Love ... a Weinstein film.

Fun, huh?

if you don't agree with any of the above, Argo fuck yourself. 

[sometimesitcomeswithashove]

“I was looking for a film that could tell a story that would make [my son] feel like he was part of the world.”

[sometimesitcomeswithashove]

Silver Linings Playbook’s Academy Awards Nominations

[sometimesitcomeswithashove]

Upon visiting Citizen Kane, I visited this video by Mr. Orson Welles. 

Does any part of this move you? Which part?

[sometimesitcomeswithashove]

Silver Linings Playbook: ‘Always Alright’ Music Video 

[sometimesitcomeswithashove]

Silver Linings Playbook: Diner Clip