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spark-global · 3 years

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The election is over, the vaccine may be in this week's hands, gold is on the decline, saved by the Fed?

Spot gold continued its decline in Asian trading on Monday, falling as low as $1,780.7 an ounce as sentiment remained skewed towards riskier assets. Gold fell more than 1 percent on Friday, falling as low as $1,774 an ounce, its lowest level in nearly five months, as optimism grew that the U.S. economy would recover quickly on the back of a vaccine-driven recovery and a smooth White House transition.

The DOLLAR index.DX (91.6394, -0.1402, -0.15%) fell to 91.71 on Monday, its lowest level since April 30, 2018, and fell 0.26 percent on Friday, as good vaccine news and expectations of a smoother transition in a Biden administration boosted risk appetite and prompted investors to buy non-dollar assets. With gold so weak, the Fed's monetary policy could be gold's lifeline.

The day will be followed by the November U.S. PMI in Chicago, German retail sales in October and comments from European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde.

Early vaccination is expected

On November 20, Pfizer formally submitted to FDA an emergency licensing request for the Novel Coronavirus vaccine and said that the company would be ready to distribute the vaccine within hours of the licensing. On November 24th American officials said vaccination would begin in less than three weeks. U.S. President Donald Trump has said deliveries of coVID-19 vaccines could begin as soon as this week, which means vaccination could begin by mid-December. Moncef Slaoui, chief scientific adviser to the US government's Action On Covid-19, said vaccination of groups such as health workers should begin within a day or two of the coVID-19 vaccine's approval next month.

The Nasdaq rose nearly 1 percent to an all-time high on Friday as investors further sold off safe-haven gold, extending losses amid hopes of a future economic recovery as vaccines begin to be administered in the United States.

(Daily chart) (Daily chart) (Daily Gold Spot Chart) Goldman Sachs predicts that by the middle of next year, a large percentage of the population in major developed economies will have received coVID-19 vaccination,

That would drive a "sharp rebound" in global growth

. Economists at Goldman Sachs predict that half of the British public will be vaccinated by March next year, with the US and Canada reaching that rate a month later. The European Union, Japan and Australia will have half of their populations vaccinated by May.

Craig Erlam, analyst at OANDA, said: "As soon as gold broke through the key $1,800 level, it triggered a sell-off. Given that we have strong fundamentals like vaccines,

Gold will probably test the $1,750 level."

Lachlan Shaw, head of commodities at NATIONAL Australia Bank, said: "Gold prices are entering a new phase as advances in vaccine development change the mechanisms by which the epidemic has disrupted the world and created headwinds for economic growth."

A smooth transition in Washington is expected to boost risk sentiment

Last week the General Services Administration gave Biden the green light to begin the transition process, and the White House approved Biden for the Presidential Daily Briefing, marking the beginning of official recognition of Biden's election victory.

US spark global limited Trading platform President Donald Trump said on Thursday he would leave the White House if the Electoral College voted for Democrat Joe Biden. The announcement, the closest Mr Trump has come to conceding defeat, significantly eased fears of political gridlock in the US as investors bet that Mr Biden would repair frayed relations with the rest of the world and that global trade would stabilise, raising risk sentiment and significantly reducing gold's safe-haven role.

"The fact that there has been a smoother transition between President-elect Biden and Trump is one more reason we think the unfolding economic recovery reduces one risk," said Kyle Rodda, analyst at IG Markets. He added that support around $1,800 was breached,

That suggests gold could fall further to about $1,700 before buyers return. Information from:http://www.icolocalbitcoins.com

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spark-global · 3 years

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New Zealand dollar forecast: Thin market ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday, the New Zealand dollar/DOLLAR is expected to rise

The rise appears to be continuing after a New Zealand government official suggested early this week that the country's central bank include house prices in its deliberations. The comments fuelled market expectations that the Central bank would curb further interest rate cuts. On the other hand, the NEW Currency appears to have a solid bullish basis in the short term.

After starting the week's rally, spark global Wall Street stopped yesterday. The Dow Jones industrial average fell below the 30,000 level it recently crossed. Still, the pause in market momentum seems more like a temporary pause triggered by some profit-taking than driven by a shift in sentiment.

However, there did appear to be some concern in the US Labour market on Wednesday morning in New York, with initial jobless claims surging to their highest level in more than a month. But the financial calendar showed U.S. durable goods orders performing better than expected. From yesterday's Asia - Pacific session to the close of New York, the dollar weakened against a basket of currencies. The dollar index recently fell below 92, all the way down to its lowest level since early September.

NZD forecast: Thin market ahead of Thanksgiving holiday, Asian NZD/USD is expected to rise spark global NZD/USD, USD, Dow - daily price

A Preview of Thursday's ASIA-PACIFIC session:

Trading in Asia Pacific markets is likely to be calmer on Thursday, with U.S. markets closed today for the Thanksgiving holiday. Economic data were also relatively light during the session. These two factors can lead to low trading volumes during the session, unless some unexpected headline risk emerges.

The NZD/USD is on the verge of breaking through an upward wedge that has formed since the march epidemic low. This is usually a bearish pattern, but if broken, prices could rise further. The new Currency broke its 2019 high earlier this week and is now trading above its wedge-shaped upper boundary. However, the bulls could still take control if prices retreat to a 2019 high. Without bearish fundamental drivers, the long-term NZD/USD trend is unlikely to reverse. Information from:https://www.foreign-find.com/

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spark-global · 3 years

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If the stock market falls sharply, how can we make money by buying bottoms

　Since the birth of A-shares, bulls and bears have reincarnated 8 times. There are long bear markets that last for 5 years, and short-lived bull markets that survive only 3 days.

　　 Everyone loves the bull market and hates the bear market. But, how can you win if you don’t lose? If there is no bear market, how can you win a bull market?

　　 At present, the market has been close to sideways for half a year, and investors are entangled.

　　 This is because A-share stockholders and even most retail investors in the world are mainly chasing the rise and killing the fall for speculation, so when they encounter a fall, they are frowning.

　　 But true value investors like bear markets more. Buffett said that when a bear market comes, you should pick up good stocks with buckets. Because such opportunities are too few.

　　 At the most pessimistic moment of the financial crisis in September 2008, Buffett used a super big pot to buy the bottom, and his huge investment exceeded 30 billion US dollars. But by the end of the year, the company's market value had shrunk by $11.5 billion.

　　 Later, the mainstream media thought that he was quite old. But by 2009, Berkshire Hathaway's net worth had rapidly increased by $21.8 billion.

　　 Buying dips in a bear market always loses first and then earns. The stock god is no exception. Buffett's purchase of the Washington Post in 1973 soon fell by about 20%, and his purchase of Coca-Cola after the stock market crash in 1988 fell by 30%. However, these stocks have increased by several times.

　　 Retail investors are afraid of the bear market. In essence, they just want to make money and not want to lose. If Buffett told you in 2008 what he was going to buy, would you place a big bet with the stock god to copy this bottom?

　　 I think most people will not. Because most people think that a super bear market is coming, or the financial crisis continues to deepen, isn't the bottom hunting a way to die.

　　 sounds very reasonable.

　　 Then let's calculate if the financial crisis breaks out and the stock market plummets, the fixed investment in the CSI 500 Index, the CSI 1000 Index and other small and medium-sized index funds can make money.

　　 Why use an index instead of individual stocks? Because individual stocks have a high risk of stepping on thunder in a bear market, and delisting abounds, but there is no risk of delisting.

　　 Then why use the CSI 500 Index, CSI 1000 Index and other small and medium board indexes. Excluding the CSI 300, SSE 50 and other large-cap stock indexes, these are all super big stocks this year.

Mimi used nearly 10 years of data to back-test the correlation between the two indexes and the market trend, and found that the correlation is getting weaker and deviating from the normal market trend, that is, often the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 and the Shanghai 50 index rise However, the decline of most stocks is completely unable to represent the true ups and downs of the stocks in the market.

　　 In other words, it is difficult to make correct bottom-hunting decisions when choosing such an index.

　　 Then why choose the CSI 500 Index and CSI 1000 Index, the two small and medium-cap indexes?

　　 First of all, the coverage is wide. The two indexes contain 1,500 unique stocks, and there are currently more than 3,000 A-share listed companies. These two indexes basically cover half of China’s A-shares, which can represent the overall situation of A-shares.

　　 Second, liquidity is good, industry coverage is wide, and market value is small. Since these two indexes are both small and medium-cap stocks, the liquidity of trading volume is very high, covering almost all industries of A-shares, so the similarity of the two indexes is extremely high. In recent years, the data backtest similarity is as high as 85%. In most cases, it goes up and down together.

　　 Third, because the market value is too small to be seen by the national team, the trend in recent years has basically been a real market trend without intervention, and it can almost be said that it is a twin brother.

　　 So are these indexes worth buying in the bear market? So next, let's calculate whether these index funds can make money if they are scheduled to invest in the extremely pessimistic stock market!

　　 From the high point in 2015,spark global limited the average decline of these two indexes is about 50%. You know that when the real estate crash in Japan, the stock market only fell to about 70% at most.

　　 If the stock market is also turbulent in the future. Our stock market has fallen as badly as it was in Japan, and the decline from the high in 2015 to thereafter is expected to be around 70%.

　　 Calculated based on the CSI 500's highest of 11600 points, it fell 70%, probably to about 3,500 points. Now it is 6,400 points, and it continues to be fixed to 3,500 points. Simply calculate the average cost line at around 5,000 points.

If it takes 5 years to return to the previous period of 11,600 points, from your cost of 5,000 points to the highest increase of 11600 points by 130%, your fixed investment profit is 65% (the fixed investment loss and return are basically half and half, and simple calculations are rounded). The 5-year profit is 65%, and the average simple interest is 15% annually.

This income is enough to kill most financial investments. Except for the first-line housing price increase, even if many P2P that have been running continuously before can not reach this income, because the future money for scheduled investment is equivalent to eliminating a certain amount of inflation, and actually adding inflation The factor’s annualized rate of return is close to 20% (Buffett’s average annualized rate of return is only 22%).

　　 Assuming that the domestic A shares spark global limited fell by 80% (the worst crisis in history only fell 87% in 1929), then according to the CSI 500, the fall from the high of 11,600 to about 2,300 points, is it terrible?

　　 We set a fixed investment at the current 6400 point, and continued fixed investment to 2300 points, with an average holding cost of 4350 points.

If it takes 10 years to recover to the previous high point (the average time it takes for the historical financial crisis to recover to normal), from your cost of 4350 points to a maximum of 11600, the 10-year increase is about 260%, and the return rate is 130% (fixed investment return loss Halving), the average simple interest annualized rate of return is 13%, plus inflation, the actual return is above 15%.

　　 Looking at the 10-year cycle,spark global limited it still kills all investment products except real estate bitcoin, and beats 90% of investors. The content comes from:https://www.foundevaluating.com

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spark-global · 4 years

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The latest global cost of living rankings: Hong Kong, Paris and Zurich are tied for first place!

The Economist Intelligence Unit released the latest global cost of living rankings on Wednesday. Hong Kong, China, remains one of the highest in the world under the COVID-19 pandemic. Zurich, Switzerland and Paris, France replaced Singapore and Osaka, Japan, cohabiting with Hong Kong. Top position.

　　 The latest survey results of the Economist Intelligence Unit's Worldwide Cost of Living 2020 (Worldwide Cost of Living 2020) show how the new crown virus has changed the cost of living in 133 cities around the world since the beginning of the year.

The main reasons for the impact of the epidemic on the cost of living include currency exchange rates, supply chains, government policies (such as price controls and tax increases), reduction in residents' disposable income, and changes in living patterns spark global limited.

　　Research shows that as of September this year, the prices of 138 kinds of goods and services in these cities have only increased by an average of about 0.3% in the past year.

　　 The cost of living in cities in the Americas, Africa, and Eastern Europe has fallen since last year, while Western European cities have become more expensive, partly reflecting the impact of the rise of European currencies relative to the US dollar.

　　 Among the 10 categories covered by the report, the prices of tobacco and leisure (including consumer electronics) products have risen the most, while the prices of clothing have fallen the most.

　　 The largest increase in the cost of living in U.S. dollars was Iran’s Tehran, which rose 27 places to 79th due to the impact of Iran’s sanctions on the supply of goods. However, the cost of living in Tehran (index 62) is still far lower than Hong Kong, Zurich and Paris (index 103).

　　 As for Singapore and Osaka, which were tied with Hong Kong for the first place in the previous list, the latest ranking dropped to fourth and fifth respectively. The report pointed out that due to the pandemic caused local foreign workers to leave, and Singapore's overall population contracted for the first time since 2003, demand fell and fell into multiple months of deflation. A similar trend has also occurred in Osaka, with stagnant consumer prices and the Japanese government subsidizing public transportation costs.

　　 The report stated that the cities with the largest decline in the cost of living were Brazil’s Rio de Janeiro and Sao Paulo, reflecting the weak currency and rising poverty levels in the region.

　　 Looking forward to next year, the Economist Intelligence Unit said that this largely depends on the development of the epidemic, but the current price trend is expected to continue in 2021.

　　 Before 2022, it seems unlikely that the global economy will return to its pre-epidemic level spark global limited. Expenditure will continue to be restricted and prices will still be under downward pressure. Consumers who are price-sensitive will prioritize purchasing necessities, home entertainment and faster Internet access. As for high-priced goods, clothing and outdoor leisure activities spending will continue to be sluggish.

　　 In addition, the price of notebook phones and smart phones, as well as the prices of various foods, will also be affected by the tariff war. Imported goods will also continue to be affected by currency fluctuations. The report predicts that online sales will continue to expand its share of total retail sales in 2021. However, even online retailers will have difficulty finding new sources of income and will rely on price competition to increase sales. Information comes from:https://www.foreign-good.com/

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spark-global · 4 years

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Decoupling of private lending and financial institution interest rate ceiling?

Xinhua News Agency issued a case: Licensed institutions do not apply 4 times LPR "Recently, the Wenzhou Ouhai District People’s Court made a civil judgment on the dispute over a financial loan contract between Ping An Bank’s Wenzhou Branch and Hong’s financial loan contract, referring to the Supreme People’s Court on Several Issues Concerning the Application of Law in the Trial of Private Loan Cases (Amended in 2020 The interest rate of four times the quoted interest rate of the loan market of) was adjusted to the interest rate of the financial loan contract. Ping An Bank Wenzhou Branch appealed the case, and the Wenzhou Intermediate People's Court issued a public judgment on the 12th spark global limited.

The second-instance judgment of Wenzhou Intermediate People’s Court held that this case was a financial borrowing dispute. According to the provisions of Article 1, Paragraph 2 of the New Civil Lending Judicial Interpretation, financial institutions and their branches established with the approval of the financial regulatory authority to engage in loan business were due to issue This judicial interpretation does not apply to disputes arising from financial services such as loans. Therefore, the first-instance judgment adjusted the interest, compound interest and overdue interest stipulated in the financial loan contract in this case to four times the quoted interest rate of the one-year loan market with reference to the provisions of the above-mentioned judicial interpretation. This is an error of applicable law and should be corrected. In addition, when the case was accepted at the first instance, the new judicial interpretation of private lending had not yet been implemented, and the judicial interpretation was not applicable to this case according to law.

The judgment held that for the second-instance appeal request of Ping An Bank Wenzhou Branch, according to the contract, the monthly interest rate of the loan involved in the case was 1.53%, that is spark global limited, the annualized interest rate was 18.36%; after the loan expires, if the loan is overdue, if the monthly interest rate agreed in the contract is increased by 50% The standard calculation and collection of penalty interest, the overdue interest rate reached an annualized 27.54%. In this case, both the first-instance prosecution and the second-instance appeal request of Ping An Bank Wenzhou Branch claimed that the interest of the loan involved in the case should be calculated at a monthly interest rate of 2%, that is, 24% per annum. The appeal request of Ping An Bank Wenzhou Branch was established and the second instance was supported by law. "

This case is the first judgment after the issuance of the "Regulations of the Supreme People's Court on Several Issues Concerning the Application of Laws to the Trial of Private Lending Cases" (hereinafter referred to as the "Regulations"), and it is very representative: the court of first instance uses 4 times the LPR for financial loan contracts. Interest rates were adjusted, and the second-instance judgment overturned it.

After the promulgation of the "Regulations," local courts were very divided when dealing with licensed financial institutions. One part still uses 24% as the upper limit of interest rates, while the other part uses 4 times LPR as the upper limit of interest rates. The latter is a continuation of the usual practice before the issuance of the "Regulations", believing that financial institutions should be subject to stricter controls than private lending, and therefore interest rates should not exceed the upper limit of private lending rates.

After this case, the split may gradually come to an end spark global limited. Some people in the industry have speculated that this case law issued by Xinhua News Agency may represent the opinions of the Supreme Court to a certain extent.

In 2020, the three major financial technology giants of Ant Group, JD Digital, and Lufax have opened IPOs. The prospectuses of these giants all mention a risk factor, that is, the upper limit of interest rates of 4 times LPR.

There is no doubt that if private lending is decoupled from the interest rate ceiling of licensed financial institutions in the future, the "ants" and even the credit industry will usher in benefits.

Reading New Finance believes that decoupling is all right.

In the two-tier and three-zone era, the premise that financial institutions and private lending share an upper limit on interest rates is that financial institutions can survive and make a profit under the upper limit of 24%. In the following years, credit continues to be Internetized and retailed, and more and more Users enjoy credit services, and the market environment is also changing simultaneously. The 24% profit margin is no longer large. If you directly enter the 4x LPR era, licensed financial institutions may directly turn their profits into losses.

In addition, the cost of financial institutions is also difficult to directly compare with private lending.

First of all, the "Opinions on Several Issues Concerning the Handling of Criminal Cases of Illegal Lending" has blocked the survival of private professional lenders. These private institutions and individuals acting as shadow banks cannot be counted as private lending because they have been determined to be illegal. Up. How can non-professional private lenders meet the same standards as financial institutions?

How to define their cost of capital? Should the funds obtained from labor or production and operation be calculated based on no cost or bank deposit cost or other criteria?

Similarly, how should their risk costs be calculated? Compared with these difficult to calculate costs, spark global limited do they have operating and customer acquisition costs?

These costs are clearly recorded in small books for financial institutions. If the risk of financial institutions’ lending business is lower than that of private lending, it should refer to professional lenders, right?

Finally, we review the last sentence of the "Regulations": "After the implementation of this regulation, if the relevant judicial interpretation previously made by the Supreme People's Court is inconsistent with this interpretation, this interpretation shall prevail." The article comes from:http://www.icolocalbitcoins.com

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spark-global · 4 years

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Heavy! WeBank Enterprise + Partner Conference, showing 30 million new engine plans

The Weizhong Enterprise + Partner Conference hosted by WeBank was grandly held. The conference adopted an online live broadcast with the theme of "Digital Finance, Multi-Enterprise Symbiosis", focusing on the current plight of small and micro enterprises, and in-depth discussions on how to build A healthy and sustainable small and micro service system.

As the organizer, WeBank joined hands with ZhongAn Insurance, China UnionPay, Wahaha, Want Want, UFIDA and many other partners to attend this conference. WeBank President Li Nanqing, WeBank Vice President Chen Qiao, and WeBank Enterprise Direct The general manager of the Banking Department Public and other senior bank leaders attended the meeting. At the same time, WeBank also invited Li Zibin,spark global limited chairman of the China Association of Small and Medium Enterprises, Xiao Gang, member of the Economic Committee of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference and former chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, relevant government leaders in Shenzhen, and well-known financial writer Wu Xiaobo to participate in this conference.

At the beginning of the meeting, Weizhong Bank President Li Nanqing delivered a speech, expounding the important content and significance of this conference, and thanked the guests and partners who participated in this conference. He pointed out that financing difficulties for small and micro enterprises is a worldwide problem. WeBank's micro-industry loans based on its own financial technology capabilities have effectively solved the long-term problem of financing difficulties for small and micro enterprises, and initially achieved "satisfaction."

At the conference site, Wu You, Deputy Secretary-General of Shenzhen Municipal People’s Government, He Jie, Director of Shenzhen Local Financial Supervision Bureau, and Deng Xiaojun, Deputy Director of Shenzhen Science and Technology Innovation Commission delivered speeches. While affirming the achievements of Weizhong Bank’s Weiye Loan, we hope WeBank continues to work hard and joins forces with all sectors of society to promote the vigorous development of the small and micro economy.

The problems faced by small and micro enterprises in the survival and management of the current era

At present, there are more than 30 million small and micro enterprises in our country. Small and micro enterprises are the foundation of maintaining economic and social development and the soil for people's livelihood and employment. Small and micro enterprises have flourished and become an important force in promoting economic and social development.

Under the influence of the epidemic, small and micro enterprises have encountered difficulties in resuming work and production. Li Zibin, President of the Association of Small and Medium Enterprises, pointed out: “Protecting employment, protecting market players, and alleviating funding difficulties for small and medium-sized enterprises are the top priorities. WeBank’s inclusive financial products are to a certain extent. Alleviated this problem".

In response to the global financial problem that small and micro enterprises are difficult to finance and expensive, Xiao Gang, a member of the Economic Committee of the National Committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference, pointed out: “WeBank, as one of the first batch of Internet banks in my country, has done a good Solving the financing difficulties of small and micro enterprises, represented by Weiye Loan, has taken a feasible path. With digital marketing + Internet contact + big data risk control, this new model and new product can be replicated, sustainable, and in line with future development trend".

Since the beginning of this year, the operation of small and micro enterprises has also faced unprecedented difficulties. Finance writer Wu Xiaobo pointed out: "The new crown epidemic, the wave of counter-globalization caused by the Sino-US trade friction, and industrial transformation and upgrading have brought a major impact on small and micro enterprises. To get out of the predicament, the first strategic breakthrough point is to make finance inclusive of small and micro businesses. enterprise".

WeBank is the first domestic private bank and Internet bank with technology as its core development engine. It has always been committed to "serving micro-enterprises and benefiting the general public". Three years ago, WeBank launched a full-line, pure credit-to-business working capital loan product, Weiye Loan, to serve small and micro enterprises, which solved the difficult and expensive financing problems of small and micro spark global limited enterprises. WeBank continues to improve its product matrix, join hands with partners to develop together, and upgrade the corporate financial service brand to "WeBank+" to create a full-link business service ecosystem. In the future, WeBank will strive to allow small and micro enterprises to enjoy the full range of services of large enterprises and promote the healthy and stable development of small and micro enterprises.

WeBank accurately moisturizes small and micro enterprises

At the conference, Chen Qiao, vice president of WeBank, elaborated on how WeBank used digital technology to enable small and micro enterprises to "finance, simpler". According to reports, WeBank uses financial technology as the engine to drive small and micro financial services, and has served more than 1.5 million corporate legal persons in the past three years through special practices such as digital marketing, big data risk control, Internet product design, and Internet technology. , The accumulated loans exceeded 320 billion, and 7% of the national corporate loan customers are micro-business loan customers. These customers are all private enterprises, distributed in more than 200 cities in 27 provinces. In these areas, 1 in 14 companies has a record of micro-industry loan applications.

WeChat public enterprises + new brands build a full-link business service ecosystem

In addition to financing needs in the operation of small and micro enterprises, there are many other financial and non-financial needs. The general manager of WeBank’s Corporate Direct Banking Department Publicly introduced in detail the new brand of WeBank’s corporate finance "WeBank+". It contains six major product matrices, which not only solve financing problems for small and micro enterprises, but also provide comprehensive services such as corporate discounting, insurance, and business opportunities, and strive to realize that small and micro enterprises can enjoy the same financial services as large enterprises.

The conference also released two new products, "Weizhong Enterprise + Card" and "Weizhong Enterprise + Business Card". "Weizhong Enterprise + Card" is an exclusive bank card for small and micro enterprises. It seamlessly integrates with business scenarios. One card meets the needs of small and micro enterprise account management, convenient collection and payment, and liquidity management, and becomes the boss to manage business Good helper; as a non-financial product, "Weizhong Enterprise + Business Card" provides exclusive social services for business owners. Through AI technology, it accurately recommends small and micro businesses based on their industry classification, operating location, business scale, credit performance, etc. Reliable personal connections, continue to help companies do "good business" and do a good job of "business".

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