swaswert-blog
swaswert-blog
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swaswert-blog · 6 years ago
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Money is like muck, not good except it be spread. – Francis Bacon Sometimes it’s better to spend one hour thinking about money than to spend a week working for it. – André Kostolany Money is only a tool. It will take you wherever you wish, but it will not replace you as the driver. – Ayn Rand
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swaswert-blog · 6 years ago
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Crypto and traditional markets - Oil overtakes Bitcoin
Currently, oil is the best performing asset, not Bitcoin. However, the absolute coupling of Bitcoin with the rest of the market is still the lowest. Currently, Bitcoin has a stable volatility of less than three percent. Since the beginning of November, we have been monitoring Bitcoin's performance compared to traditional markets. This is not a trivial comparison of performance. Institutional investors are extremely interested in Bitcoin's claim to be a non-correlated, stable asset. In the context of a guest article on €uro Fundresearch, BTC-ECHO has devoted itself to the question of whether Bitcoin and the strongly correlated crypto market would be a good complement for classical portfolios. This question is of interest to institutional investors in the crypto market, less a hope for a new bull run like at the end of 2017. In order to clarify the suitability for classic portfolios, an investor can consider different sizes. On the one hand, it would be interesting to see whether and how strongly Bitcoin is linked to traditional markets. On the other hand, a stable asset is attractive for a long-term investment. The volatility of the asset does not have to be extremely low. However, it should at least remain constant over a longer period of time. In this series of articles we therefore pay attention to the correlation in the last month, to a moving correlation, a moving volatility and a moving performance. The last three values are calculated for each day on the basis of the last 30 days. We consider the S&P 500, Dax and Nikkei indices on oil and gold as comparative assets from the traditional markets.
How is the relationship between Bitcoin and the traditional markets developing?
The picture is familiar: As in previous weeks, XRP is still the most decoupled asset in the top 3, but the coupling between XRP and Bitcoin or Ethereum rose in February. Since the beginning of March, both correlations have been around 85 percent:
Since Bitcoin is the leading currency within the crypto ecosystem and institutional investors are the first to look at it, it is sufficient for us to focus on the largest of all crypto currencies when comparing with the classic market.
Correlation: crypto currencies vs. traditional market
With the exception of oil, Bitcoin is positively correlated to all comparative assets. However, the correlations are rather low overall, with the coupling to oil almost compensating for that to the DAX:
The correlation with oil, which has been falling since 24 February, has led to a negative coupling between the Bitcoin price and oil since 5 March. While until March 9 the coupling between Bitcoin and the DAX or the Nikkei index was positive, these two correlations rose abruptly:
Overall, Bitcoin's absolute average correlation with the other markets is lowest at 25 percent. If we take into account compensation effects from any anticorrelations, Nikkei leads with only 13 percent. However, Bitcoin's correlation to the comparative assets is also only 22 percent, making it the second largest coupling on the market.
Performance of Bitcoin below that of oil
The average volatility of the last 30 days has hardly changed due to the current sideways situation. It fell slightly on February 10 and currently stands at around 2.5 percent:
On March 10, the monthly performance crashed from the Bitcoin price. Since the performance of the oil futures has been rising steadily since the beginning of March, Bitcoin currently has to take second place in terms of performance:
Overall, the result is not as grandiose as last week. However, Bitcoin continues to perform well compared to the classic market. Especially in comparison to its analogue role model gold, Bitcoin is doing extremely well in terms of performance. Furthermore, the correlation to the comparable assets is currently worse than with the Nikkei index, but also takes second place here. After all, the volatility is still significantly higher than that of the comparison assets, but remains stable below three percent.
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swaswert-blog · 6 years ago
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swaswert-blog · 6 years ago
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