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Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2025 May 09 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was low. Region 4082 (S10E01, Cso/beta) produced a C7.1 flare at 08/1454 UTC, the strongest of the period, and exhibited decay in the trailing spots. The bulk of C-class flare activity originated from Region 4079 (N07W60, Ekc/beta-gamma), which remained stable throughout the period. Region 4081 (N07W29, Dai/beta) exhibited minor decay in the trailing spots while Region 4084 (S20E55, Cso/beta) remained stable. No Earth-directed CMEs were detected in available imagery. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares over 09-11 May. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 15,900 pfu observed at 08/1440 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on 09-11 May. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels through 11 May. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... The solar wind environment was mildly enhanced in response to negative polarity CH HSS influences. Total IMF strength reached 8 nT and the Bz component varied between +6/-7 nT. Solar wind speeds ranged between 410-510 km/s. The phi angle was negative throughout the period. .Forecast... Enhanced solar wind conditions are expected to prevail on 09 May due to continued negative polarity CH HSS influences in addition to the possible arrival of a CME from 05 May. Negative polarity CH HSS influences are expected to persist over 10-11 May. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field reached active levels in response to negative polarity CH HSS influences. .Forecast... The geomagnetic field is likely to reach G1 (Minor) storm levels on 09 May due to negative polarity CH HSS influences and the possible arrival of a CME from 05 May. Periods of active conditions are likely on 10-11 May due to continued CH HSS influences.

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NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2025 May 09 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 09-May 11 2025 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale G1). NOAA Kp index breakdown May 09-May 11 2025 May 09 May 10 May 11 00-03UT 2.67 3.67 3.00 03-06UT 2.33 3.00 3.67 06-09UT 1.67 2.67 2.67 09-12UT 2.00 2.00 2.00 12-15UT 2.67 2.67 2.00 15-18UT 3.00 2.00 2.67 18-21UT 3.67 2.67 2.67 21-00UT 4.67 (G1) 2.67 2.67 Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions are likely on 09 May due to negative polarity CH HSS influences and the possible arrival of a CME from 05 May. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 09-May 11 2025 May 09 May 10 May 11 S1 or greater 5% 5% 5% Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours. Radio Blackout Forecast for May 09-May 11 2025 May 09 May 10 May 11 R1-R2 40% 40% 40% R3 or greater 5% 5% 5% Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts over 09-11 May.

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Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2025 May 09 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity remained low. The strongest events of the period were observed from Region 4082 (S10E07, Dso/beta-gamma); a C7.0 flare at 08/1141 UTC and a C7.0/1n at 08/1500 UTC. The region exhibited some slight decay in its trailing portion. Region 4079 (N09W52, Ekc/beta-gamma) produced numerous weak C-class flares during the period. The region has shown some slight decay on its northern flank. Region 4081 (N08W23, Dai/beta) showed some consolidation in its lead and trailer portions, with some minor intermediate spot emergence. New Region 4084 (S20E60, Cso/beta) was numbered and produced some weak C-class activity. Several filament eruptions were observed in coronagraph data, all of which appear to be directed away from the Earth-Sun line. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flare activity over 09-11 May. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 15,894 pfu observed at 08/1440 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained below S1 (Minor) levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels over 09-11 May. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels over 09-11 May. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... The solar wind environment remained weakly enhanced this period due to continued, but waning, negative polarity CH HSS influences. Total magnetic field strength was between 5-7 nT. The Bz component varied between +4/-7 nT. Solar wind speeds averaged near 450 km/s throughout the period. Phi angle orientation was predominantly in the negative sector. .Forecast... Solar wind enhancements are likely on 09 May due to the anticipated onset of another negative polarity CH HSS coupled with a possible glancing blow CME from 05 May. CH HSS enhancements are expected to persist on 10-11 May. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels, with an isolated active period to end the day. .Forecast... G1 (Minor) conditions are likely on 09 May due to the onset of another negative polarity CH HSS coupled with a possible glancing blow CME from 05 May. Unsettled to active conditions are expected on 10-11 May due to continued influence from a negative polarity CH HSS.

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NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2025 May 09 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 09-May 11 2025 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale G1). NOAA Kp index breakdown May 09-May 11 2025 May 09 May 10 May 11 00-03UT 3.33 3.67 3.00 03-06UT 3.67 3.00 3.67 06-09UT 3.67 2.67 2.67 09-12UT 3.67 2.00 2.00 12-15UT 3.67 2.67 2.00 15-18UT 4.00 2.00 2.67 18-21UT 4.67 (G1) 2.67 2.67 21-00UT 4.00 2.67 2.67 Rationale: G1 (Minor) conditions are likely on 09 May due to the onset of another negative polarity CH HSS coupled with a possible glancing blow CME from 05 May. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 09-May 11 2025 May 09 May 10 May 11 S1 or greater 5% 5% 5% Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours. Radio Blackout Forecast for May 09-May 11 2025 May 09 May 10 May 11 R1-R2 40% 40% 40% R3 or greater 5% 5% 5% Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts over 09-11 May.

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ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 4

Space Weather Message Code: ALTK04 Serial Number: 2555 Issue Time: 2025 May 08 2234 UTC ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 Threshold Reached: 2025 May 08 2234 UTC Synoptic Period: 2100-2400 UTC Active Warning: Yes NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude. Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur. Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

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WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected

Space Weather Message Code: WARK04 Serial Number: 4957 Issue Time: 2025 May 08 2224 UTC WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected Valid From: 2025 May 08 2224 UTC Valid To: 2025 May 09 0600 UTC Warning Condition: Onset NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude. Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur. Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

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NOAA Geomagnetic Forecast

:Product: NOAA 3-day Geomagnetic Forecasts :Issued: 2025 May 08 2200 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # NOAA Ap Index Forecast Observed Ap 07 May 009 Estimated Ap 08 May 010 Predicted Ap 09 May-11 May 025-012-012 NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 May-11 May Active 30/40/40 Minor storm 35/25/20 Moderate storm 25/05/05 Strong-Extreme storm 05/01/01 NOAA Kp index forecast 09 May - 11 May May 09 May 10 May 11 00-03UT 3.33 3.67 3.00 03-06UT 3.67 3.00 3.67 06-09UT 3.67 2.67 2.67 09-12UT 3.67 2.00 2.00 12-15UT 3.67 2.67 2.00 15-18UT 4.00 2.00 2.67 18-21UT 4.67 2.67 2.67 21-00UT 4.00 2.67 2.67

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Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 128 Issued at 2200Z on 08 May 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (09 May, 10 May, 11 May). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 1031 km/s at 08/0629Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 08/0618Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 08/2032Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 15854 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (09 May) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (10 May, 11 May). III. Event probabilities 09 May-11 May Class M 40/40/40 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 05/05/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 08 May 149 Predicted 09 May-11 May 150/150/140 90 Day Mean 08 May 166 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 07 May 008/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 08 May 009/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 09 May-11 May 017/025-010/012-010/012 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 May-11 May A. Middle Latitudes Active 40/35/35 Minor Storm 30/15/15 Major-severe storm 10/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 05/10/10 Minor Storm 20/30/30 Major-severe storm 70/50/45

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NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2025 May 08 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 08-May 10 2025 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale G1). NOAA Kp index breakdown May 08-May 10 2025 May 08 May 09 May 10 00-03UT 2.33 3.33 3.67 03-06UT 3.00 3.67 3.00 06-09UT 3.00 3.67 2.67 09-12UT 2.00 3.67 2.00 12-15UT 2.00 3.67 2.67 15-18UT 2.00 4.00 2.00 18-21UT 2.33 4.67 (G1) 2.67 21-00UT 2.67 4.00 2.67 Rationale: G1 (Minor) conditions are likely on 09 May due to the onset of influence from another negative polarity CH HSS coupled with a possible glancing blow CME from 05 May. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 08-May 10 2025 May 08 May 09 May 10 S1 or greater 5% 5% 5% Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours. Radio Blackout Forecast for May 08-May 10 2025 May 08 May 09 May 10 R1-R2 45% 45% 45% R3 or greater 5% 5% 5% Rationale: Region 4079's enhanced magnetic complexity will keep the chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts in the forecast over 08-10 May.

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Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2025 May 08 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity remained low. The strongest flare was a C7.0/Sf flare observed at 08/1141 UTC from Region 4082 (S11E14, Dai/beta-gamma). Region 4079 (N08W45, Ekc/beta-gamma) produced numerous weak C-class flares during the period. The region has shown some slight decay on its northern flank. Region 4081 (N07W16, Dai/beta) showed some consolidation in its lead and trailer portions, with some minor intermediate spot emergence. New Region 4082 (S20E70, Hsx/alpha) was numbered and produced C-class activity. A filament eruption was observed off the NW from about 07/0900-1000 UTC. LASCO imagery observed the fast-moving CME signature off the NW beginning at approximately 07/0924 UTC. As expected, with the trajectory being so far north, analysis indicated a miss well above Earth with no impacts expected. Another filament eruption analyzed this period was off the NE from about 07/1116 UTC through 07/1348 UTC as seen in SUVI 284 imagery. LASCO imagery observed a CME signature at about 07/1124 UTC. Analysis indicated the ejecta will pass well north and behind Earth's orbit. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flare activity over 08-10 May. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 12,994 pfu observed at 07/0525 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained below S1 (Minor) levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels over 08-10 May. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels over 08-10 May. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... The solar wind environment remained enhanced this period due to continued negative polarity CH HSS influences. Total magnetic field strength was between 5-7 nT. The Bz component briefly reached as far south as -6 nT. Solar wind speeds were between ~475-500 km/s. Phi angle was predominantly oriented in the negative sector. .Forecast... A gradual return to background conditions is likely over 08 May as CH HSS influence wanes. An additional enhancement is likely on 09 May due to the anticipated onset of another negative polarity CH HSS coupled with a possible glancing blow CME from 05 May. CH HSS enhancements are expected to persist on 10 May. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. .Forecast... Quiet to unsettled levels are expected to prevail on 08 May as CH HSS influence wanes. G1 (Minor) conditions are likely on 09 May due to the onset of influence from another negative polarity CH HSS coupled with a possible glancing blow CME from 05 May. Unsettled to active conditions are expected on 10 May due to continued influence from a negative polarity CH HSS.

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Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2025 May 08 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity remained low. Region 4079 (N08W38, Ekc/beta-gamma) produced numerous weak C-class flares during the period. The strongest was a C4.0/Sf flare observed at 07/0252 UTC. The region has shown some slight decay on its northern flank. Region 4081 (N07W09, Dai/beta) showed some consolidation in its lead and trailer portions, with some minor intermediate spot emergence. Region 4082 (S11E21, Dai/beta-gamma) added some minor intermediate spots and produced weak, C-class activity. C-class activity was also observed from an unnumbered area near the SE limb. A relatively fast, narrow CME eruption was seen to the S-SE in LASCO C2 imagery beginning at about 06/1620UTC. The CME is associated with a filament eruption centered near S20W01 as seen in SUVI 304 imagery at about 06/1630 UTC. Analysis indicated the ejecta would pass well south of the Sun-Earth line, and should not have any impacts at Earth. A large-scale filament eruption occurred near N45W20 seen in SUVI 284 and 304. The filament began lifting off as early as 06/1445 UTC through 06/1700 UTC. Analysis revealed the majority of the ejecta will be well north of the ecliptic, and no Earth-directed component is expected. A third filament eruption was observed off the NW from about 07/0900-1000 UTC. LASCO imagery observed the fast-moving CME signature off the NW beginning at approximately 07/0924 UTC. As expected, with the trajectory being so far north, analysis indicated a miss well above Earth with no impacts expected. The fourth and final filament eruption analyzed this period was off the NE from about 07/1116 UTC through 07/1348 UTC as seen in SUVI 284 imagery. LASCO imagery observed a CME signature at about 07/1124 UTC. Initial analysis indicated most of this ejecta will likely pass north of Earth as well, but additional analysis is under way to confirm. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flare activity over 08-10 May. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 12,994 pfu observed at 07/0525 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained below S1 (Minor) levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels over 08-10 May. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels over 08-10 May. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... The solar wind environment remained enhanced this period due to continued negative polarity CH HSS influences. Total magnetic field strength was between 4-6 nT. The Bz component briefly reached as far south as -5 nT. Solar wind speeds declined from ~600 km/s to under 450 km/s by the end of the reporting period. Phi angle was predominantly oriented in the negative sector. .Forecast... A gradual return to background conditions is likely over 08 May as CH HSS influence wanes. An additional enhancement is likely on 09 May due to the anticipated onset of another negative polarity CH HSS coupled with a possible glancing blow CME from 05 May. CH HSS enhancements are expected to persist on 10 May. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels in response to continued negative polarity CH HSS influences. .Forecast... Quiet to unsettled levels are expected to prevail on 08 May as CH HSS influence wanes. G1 (Minor) conditions are likely on 09 May due to the onset of influence from another negative polarity CH HSS coupled with a possible glancing blow CME from 05 May. Unsettled to active conditions are expected on 10 May due to continued influence from a negative polarity CH HSS.

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NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2025 May 08 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 08-May 10 2025 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale G1). NOAA Kp index breakdown May 08-May 10 2025 May 08 May 09 May 10 00-03UT 2.67 3.33 3.67 03-06UT 2.33 3.67 3.00 06-09UT 2.67 3.67 2.67 09-12UT 2.33 3.67 2.00 12-15UT 2.00 3.67 2.67 15-18UT 2.00 4.00 2.00 18-21UT 2.33 4.67 (G1) 2.67 21-00UT 2.67 4.00 2.67 Rationale: G1 (Minor) conditions are likely on 09 May due to the onset of influence from another negative polarity CH HSS coupled with a possible glancing blow CME from 05 May. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 08-May 10 2025 May 08 May 09 May 10 S1 or greater 5% 5% 5% Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours. Radio Blackout Forecast for May 08-May 10 2025 May 08 May 09 May 10 R1-R2 45% 45% 45% R3 or greater 5% 5% 5% Rationale: Region 4079's enhanced magnetic complexity will keep the chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts in the forecast over 08-10 May.

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NOAA Geomagnetic Forecast

:Product: NOAA 3-day Geomagnetic Forecasts :Issued: 2025 May 07 2200 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # NOAA Ap Index Forecast Observed Ap 06 May 015 Estimated Ap 07 May 011 Predicted Ap 08 May-10 May 010-025-012 NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 May-10 May Active 40/30/40 Minor storm 10/35/25 Moderate storm 01/25/05 Strong-Extreme storm 01/05/01 NOAA Kp index forecast 08 May - 10 May May 08 May 09 May 10 00-03UT 2.67 3.33 3.67 03-06UT 2.33 3.67 3.00 06-09UT 2.67 3.67 2.67 09-12UT 2.33 3.67 2.00 12-15UT 2.00 3.67 2.67 15-18UT 2.00 4.00 2.00 18-21UT 2.33 4.67 2.67 21-00UT 2.67 4.00 2.67

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Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 127 Issued at 2200Z on 07 May 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (08 May, 09 May, 10 May). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 853 km/s at 07/0544Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 12994 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (08 May), unsettled to minor storm levels on day two (09 May) and quiet to active levels on day three (10 May). III. Event probabilities 08 May-10 May Class M 45/45/45 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 05/05/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 07 May 154 Predicted 08 May-10 May 155/160/155 90 Day Mean 07 May 167 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 06 May 015/015 Estimated Afr/Ap 07 May 010/011 Predicted Afr/Ap 08 May-10 May 008/010-017/025-010/012 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 May-10 May A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/40/35 Minor Storm 05/30/15 Major-severe storm 01/10/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/05/10 Minor Storm 30/20/30 Major-severe storm 35/70/50

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Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2025 May 07 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity remained low. Region 4079 (N08W26, Ekc/beta-gamma) produced the strongest flare of the period, an impulsive C4.5 06/1707 UTC. A simultaneous filament eruption, centered near S20E05, produced a narrow CME signature that was first observed in SOHO LASCO/C2 imagery beginning at 06/1655 UTC. An additional, slower filament eruption, centered near N35W15, was also observed. Analysis and modeling of the events is ongoing. No significant growth or decay was observed in the spotted regions on the visible disk. An active filament was observed in the far NW portion of the disk starting in GOES SUVI 304 imagery around 07/0830 UTC. Analysis of any CME from this event will occur as imagery becomes available. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flare activity over 07-09 May. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 11,900 pfu observed at 06/1600 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained below S1 (Minor) levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels over 07-09 May. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels over 07-09 May. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... The solar wind environment remained enhanced this period due to continued negative polarity CH HSS influences. Total magnetic field strength was between 4-6 nT. The Bz component briefly reached as far south as -6 nT. Solar wind speeds declined from ~625 km/s to ~550 km/s by the end of the reporting period. Phi angle was predominantly oriented in the negative sector. .Forecast... Enhanced solar wind conditions are expected to prevail over 07 May due to continued negative polarity CH HSS influences. A gradual return to background conditions is likely over 08 May as CH HSS influence wanes. An additional enhancement is likely on 09 May due to the anticipated onset of another negative polarity CH HSS. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field reached active levels in response to continued negative polarity CH HSS influences. .Forecast... The geomagnetic field is expected to reach active levels on 07 May due to continued negative polarity CH HSS influence. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected to prevail on 08 May as CH HSS influence wanes. G1 (Minor) conditions are likely on 09 May due to the onset of influence from another negative polarity CH HSS.

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NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2025 May 07 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 07-May 09 2025 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale G1). NOAA Kp index breakdown May 07-May 09 2025 May 07 May 08 May 09 00-03UT 2.33 2.67 3.33 03-06UT 2.67 2.33 3.67 06-09UT 2.67 2.67 3.67 09-12UT 2.67 2.33 3.67 12-15UT 2.67 2.00 3.67 15-18UT 2.00 2.00 4.00 18-21UT 3.00 2.33 4.67 (G1) 21-00UT 2.33 2.67 4.00 Rationale: G1 (Minor) conditions are likely on 09 May due to the onset of influence from another negative polarity CH HSS. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 07-May 09 2025 May 07 May 08 May 09 S1 or greater 5% 5% 5% Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours. Radio Blackout Forecast for May 07-May 09 2025 May 07 May 08 May 09 R1-R2 45% 45% 45% R3 or greater 5% 5% 5% Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts over 07-09 May.

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WATCH: Geomagnetic Storm Category G1 Predicted

Space Weather Message Code: WATA20 Serial Number: 1039 Issue Time: 2025 May 07 1147 UTC WATCH: Geomagnetic Storm Category G1 Predicted Highest Storm Level Predicted by Day: May 07: None (Below G1) May 08: None (Below G1) May 09: G1 (Minor) THIS SUPERSEDES ANY/ALL PRIOR WATCHES IN EFFECT NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude. Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur. Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible. Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.