#A.J. Dereume

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Groundhog Club handler A.J. Dereume holds Punxsutawney Phil, the weather prognosticating groundhog, during the 138th celebration of Groundhog Day on Gobbler's Knob in Punxsutawney, Pa., Friday, Feb. 2, 2024. Phil's handlers said that the groundhog has forecast an early spring. (AP Photo/Barry Reeger)

Groundhog Day: Punxsutawney Phil Predicts An Early Spring

— By Jacob Geanous | Pittsburgh Post-Gazette | February 2, 2024

Punxsutawney Phil, Western Pennsylvania’s famed weather-predicting groundhog, predicted an early spring Friday morning after he emerged from his burrow and did not see his shadow.

The mystical marmot was summoned at dawn by the members of the Groundhog Club Inner Circle, a group of local dignitaries tasked with caring for Phil and organizing the annual Groundhog Day at Gobbler’s Knob — a small hill approximately 65 miles northeast of Pittsburgh.

Groundhog Club handler A.J. Dereume holds Punxsutawney Phil, the weather prognosticating groundhog, during the 138th celebration of Groundhog Day on Gobbler's Knob in Punxsutawney, Pa., Friday, Feb. 2, 2024. Phil's handlers said that the groundhog has forecast an early spring. (AP Photo/Barry Reeger)

Phil’s prediction comes as sunshine and temperatures in the 40s and 50s are expected for the week ahead, weather that Groundhog Day organizers said, in part, led to an estimated 30,000 visitors for the town’s festivities.

Phil’s forecast predicted six more weeks of winter the past three years after calling for an early spring in 2019 and 2020.

Here’s What You Should Know.

Groundhog Club handler A.J. Dereume holds Punxsutawney Phil, the weather prognosticating groundhog, during the 137th celebration of Groundhog Day on Gobbler's Knob in Punxsutawney, Pa., Thursday, Feb. 2, 2023. Phil's handlers said that the groundhog has forecast six more weeks of winter. (AP Photo/Barry Reeger) (AP)

What Are The Origins Of Groundhog Day

The custom dates back to an early Christian tradition known as Candlemas, in which celebrants declared that clear skies on Candlemas meant a longer winter. Pennsylvania’s earliest settlers brought the tradition with them.

As for Phil, he rose to fame after appearing in Punxsutawney’s local newspaper in 1886. A member of a groundhog hunting group known as “The Punxsutawney Groundhog Club” used his clout at the paper to trumpet Phil, named after King Phillip, as the only official weather prognosticating groundhog.

Phil’s popularity grew from there, and the first of many annual Groundhog Day treks to Gobbler’s Knob followed in 1887.

Groundhog Day is led by the Groundhog Club’s Inner Circle, a group of 15 local dignitaries who also feed and take care of Phil year round, although the Inner Circle president is the only one responsible for translating Phil’s predictions.

Are Phil’s Predictions Foolproof?

Despite his induction into the Punxsutawney Weather Discover Center’s Meteorologist Hall of Fame last year, Phil is not always spot on in his predictions.

In fact, Phil’s Winter prognostications have been accurate just 39% of the time over 135 years, according to StormFax Weather Almanac.

Throughout the history of Groundhog Day, Phil has also been shown to be much more likely to predict six more weeks of winter.

He has seen his shadow 108 times while seeing no shadow 20 times.

There is no record of nine of his predictions during a span between 1889 and 1899, although it was reported that Phil did not see his shadow in 1890, predicting an early Spring.

President Tom Dunkel and Groundhog handler AJ Derume with Punxsutawney Phil, who saw his shadow, predicting a late spring during the 137th annual Groundhog Day festivities on February 2, 2023 in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania. Groundhog Day is a popular tradition in the United States and Canada. A crowd of upwards of 5,000 people spent a night of revelry awaiting the sunrise and the groundhog's exit from his winter den. If Punxsutawney Phil sees his shadow he regards it as an omen of six more weeks of bad weather

What Does Phil Do The Rest Of The Year?

Although Groundhog Day brings the most visitors to Punxsutawney and the surrounding region, residents and Groundhog Day organizers said it's not the only time to visit the small town of about 6,000.

However, anyone who wants to meet the meteorological mammal outside of Groundhog Day will have to visit him at his home, a climate-controlled burrow at the Punxsutawney Memorial Library.

Phil also travels to events across the country in either his handlers’ vehicles or his tricked-out Philmobile.

Meanwhile, when Phil isn’t meeting with fans, he’s snacking on kale, bananas, carrots, apples and sweet potatoes.

Groundhog Club Inner Circle President Tom Dunkel and other Inner Circle members present Punxsutawney Phil to visitors on Groundhog Day 2023. Credit: Tom Dunkel (Tom Dunkel)

The Holiday Is A Boon For The Town And Region

With Groundhog Day comes an influx of visitors and cash to Punxsutawney and the surrounding rural region.

Hotels across the region book up months in advance of the day and the visitors bring a much needed boost to local businesses during the traditionally slow month of January.

“It has a great impact on our local businesses,” Katie Laska, Punxsutawney Area Chamber of Commerce president and owner of Laska’s Pizza. “It’s the shot in the arm that we need every year.”

Groundhog Club Inner Circle President Tom Dunkel and other Inner Circle members present Punxsutawney Phil to visitors on Groundhog Day 2023. Credit: Tom Dunkel (Tom Dunkel)

The effects also extend far past Punxsutawney into the entire region.

“Groundhog Day is a major asset not just for the town of Punxsutawney, but also for the PA Wilds region as a whole,” said Britt Madera, communications manager for the PA Wilds Center for Entrepreneurship, a nonprofit focused on conservation and economic development in the region. “When visitors come to see Phil make his annual prognostication, they're often inspired to continue exploring other parts of the region too.”

All Eyes on Punxsutawney

The nation's attention turns to western Pennsylvania this morning to watch the country's most famous groundhog, Punxsutawney Phil, determine whether 2024 will bring an early spring or a longer winter. The prescient land-beaver will pick one of two scrolls, each containing separate wintery prophecies.

As is tradition, the slumberous whistle-pig will join his top-hatted crew to see whether he'll spot his shadow (foretelling six more weeks of winter) or relax a bit with his admiring fans (predicting an early spring). Phil is right about 40% of the time—or an impressive 60% if you flip the somewhat arbitrary rules.

The ceremony was originally conceived of by a local newspaper editor in 1886 but has its roots in Eastern European celebrations of the midway between the winter solstice and spring equinox—and also falls on the lesser-known Christian holiday, Candlemas.

Historical accounts suggest farmers used the appearance of hibernating mammals to signal spring. In reality, science suggests the salacious marmot likely appears to check for mates.

— Magazine 1440

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Punxsutawney Phil rises without a shadow, forecasting early spring : NPR

Groundhog Club handler A.J. Dereume holds Punxsutawney Phil, the weather-prognosticating groundhog, during the 138th celebration of Groundhog Day on Gobbler's Knob in Punxsutawney, Pa., on Friday.

[kansascityhappenings]

Groundhog Day: Punxsutawney Phil doesn’t see his shadow, predicting early spring

https://embed-prod.vemba.io/vemba-embed.js

PUNXSUTAWNEY, Penn. — Punxsutawney Phil predicts spring will come early. Don’t get too excited, though — he’s usually wrong.

Thousands of people gathered Saturday at Gobbler’s Knob in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania, to watch the famous groundhog emerge from his burrow and deliver his highly anticipated forecast.

As the legend goes, if Phil sees his shadow, he considers it an “omen” of six more weeks of bad weather and heads back into his hole. If it’s cloudy and he doesn’t, you can put away that winter coat sooner than expected.

The groundhog doesn’t have the best track record

It’s a Groundhog Day tradition that stretches back more than a century. But even though Phil has been in the weather-prediction business for more than 130 years, he doesn’t have a stellar track record.

To be fair, it’s a pretty tough job. Trying to predict a month and a half of weather for a country with vastly different regional climates is no small feat. Still, you think he’d have the hang of it by now.

In the past decade, Phil has predicted a longer winter seven times and an early spring three times. He was only right about 40% of the time, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, which says the groundhog shows “no predictive skill.”

“You’re better off trying to decide what the rest of February and March will look like by flipping a coin,” CNN meteorologist Judson Jones said.

But the people who know Phil best don’t exactly see it that way.

A.J. Dereume, one of the groundhog’s handlers, insists Phil’s predictions have a 100% accuracy rate — they just get lost in translation.

According to lore, the president of the Punxsutawney Groundhog Club is the only person who can interpret Phil’s message. So every year, the groundhog sits on his tree stump and conveys his prediction to the club president, who then directs the vice president to read from a scroll that corresponds with the year’s forecast.

“Phil is the one deciding whether or not he’s seen the shadow,” Dereume says. “It’s not up to us. All we do is deliver his message.”

Either way, human forecasters don’t mind having the alternate prediction out there in case their own projections go askew.

“People like to have something to blame for the weather, and the groundhog is the perfect thing to blame,” Jones said. “It’s better than blaming your meteorologist.”

Why a groundhog makes weather predictions

So, why do Americans look to a groundhog for a weather forecast?

The tradition has its roots in a Christian religious holiday called Candlemas Day, dating back to ancient times. It was celebrated midway between the winter solstice and the spring equinox.

Later, people across Europe took their candles to church on February 2 to have them blessed, believing it would bring good tidings through the winter, according to the Punxsutawney Groundhog Club.

Over time, the tradition evolved to incorporate weather. A sunny sky on February 2, superstition held, would mean a cold and stormy remainder of winter, while a cloudy sky meant a quicker warm-up.

When the tradition spread to Germany, a hedgehog — and its shadow sightings — joined the mix. And when German settlers arrived in the colonial America, they relied on the more plentiful groundhog to do the work.

Fast-forward to 1887, when an editor of a Punxsutawney newspaper declared Phil America’s official weather-predicting groundhog. Newspapers across the country picked up the story, and the tradition caught on.

The ongoing polar vortex

We now know Phil’s prediction — but we also have our doubts. So, what do the experts say the next month or so will actually feel like?

Well, the past week spread record cold across the United States. More than 200 million Americans experienced temperatures below freezing. The polar vortex killed at least 23 people and left others with lasting frostbite injuries.

Next comes the thermal whiplash as the bone-chilling cold is expected to melt away through early next week.

As for the rest of winter, temperatures over the next six weeks look about average — if not below average in most of the country, Jones said, nodding in the direction of a bit more winter.

from FOX 4 Kansas City WDAF-TV | News, Weather, Sports https://fox4kc.com/2019/02/02/groundhog-day-punxsutawney-phil-doesnt-see-his-shadow-predicting-early-spring/

from Kansas City Happenings https://kansascityhappenings.wordpress.com/2019/02/02/groundhog-day-punxsutawney-phil-doesnt-see-his-shadow-predicting-early-spring/