#Council tax to rise while services cut

[capitalism-is-parasitism]

George Monbiot: TAX THE RICH, TAX THEM HARD (Labour is already failing)

We need a genuine levelling up, across regions and across classes. The austerity inflicted on us by the Conservatives was unnecessary and self-defeating and Labour has no good reason to sustain it.

The new government insists it is ending austerity. It isn’t. As the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) pointed out in June, Labour’s plans mean that public services are “likely to be seriously squeezed, facing real-terms cuts”. Similarly, the Resolution Foundation has warned that, with current spending projections, the government will need to make £19bn of annual cuts by 2028-29. However you dress it up, this is austerity.

We are constantly told: “There’s no money.” But there is plenty of money. It’s just not in the hands of the government. The wealth of billionaires in the UK has risen by 1,000% since 1990. The richest 1% possess more wealth than the poorest 70%. Why do they have so much? Because the state does not; they have not been sufficiently taxed.

There are two reasons for taxing the rich and taxing them hard. The first is to generate revenue: this is the one everyone thinks about. But the second is even more important: to break the spiral of patrimonial wealth accumulation. Unless you stop the very rich from becoming even richer, it’s not just their economic power that continues to rise, but also their political power. Democracy gives way to oligarchy, and oligarchy is intensely hostile to everything Labour governments seek to achieve, including robust public services and a strong economic safety net. When oligarchs dominate, you can kiss goodbye any notion of the public good.

Last year, I tried to estimate how much it would cost to restore a viable, safe and inclusive public realm after 14 years of Tory vandalism. While my effort was very rough, the sum came to between £65bn and £100bn of extra spending a year: between seven and 10 times more than Labour’s total. It’s a lot, although it’s dwarfed by the money the previous government spent on the pandemic: between £310bn and £410bn over two years.

While these sums are ambitious, and would require expanded borrowing (which Labour has foolishly ruled out) as well as taxation, there are plenty of opportunities to raise taxes on the rich. The government could, for example, replace inheritance tax with a lifetime gifts tax kicking in at £150,000, a level that would affect only wealthy people. This would increase revenue while ending a major form of tax avoidance. The government should raise capital gains taxes: it’s perverse that unearned income is taxed at a lower rate than earned income. It should close the carried-interest loophole, which ensures that private equity bosses pay less tax than their cleaners: a pledge on which it already seems to be backtracking.

The government could also levy a wealth tax, a luxury goods tax and a tax on second homes and holiday homes. It could make the windfall tax on fossil fuel revenues permanent. It could replace business rates with land value taxation, and council tax with a progressive property tax based on contemporary property values: both shifts would be fairer and would raise more money. But the only extra taxes the government propose are, as the IFS remarks, “trivial”.

By seeking to raise revenue through economic growth rather than redistribution, Labour avoids the necessary confrontation with economic power. Not only is the strategy uncertain of success (economic growth here is subject to global forces); not only does growth load even more pressure on the living planet; but this approach also fails to break the grip of the ultra-rich. Isn’t this the whole damn point of a change of government, after 14 years of Tory appeasement? Unless you seek to change the structures of power and redistribute wealth, the rich will continue to harvest the lion’s share of growth while using some of their money to buy the politics that expands and fortifies their dominion.

[mariacallous]

Last Tuesday Rishi Sunak stood behind a lectern outside Downing Street and issued a grave warning. The country, he said, was in the midst of a profound economic crisis, which would mean “difficult decisions to come”. But lest anyone worry too much, he was also at pains to portray himself as a guardian of the public good. “You saw me during Covid, doing everything I could to protect people and businesses with schemes like furlough,” he said. “There are always limits, more so now than ever, but I promise you this: I will bring that same compassion to the challenges we face today.”

The exact mathematics of the government’s fiscal gap are a matter of conjecture. A fortnight ago, the reversal by the chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, of most of the tax reductions proposed by Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng clawed back about £30bn, leaving a hole estimated at £40bn. Midway through last week, there were reports that things were looking slightly less dire. Then, amid continuing whispers about government departments being instructed to come up with cuts of up to 15%, rumblings from the Treasury suggested that Hunt and Sunak are “exploring” tax rises and spending savings worth £50bn a year, while hoping they could avoid economies on quite that scale. Whatever the spin, bullshit and expectations management preceding Hunt’s medium-term fiscal statement on 17 November, one thing remains clear: there will be cuts.

Out in the real world, there already are. For the councils who deliver some of our most basic public services, the austerity that began in the aftermath of the financial crash of 2008 has never really gone away, and is now biting with renewed ferocity. Whatever the details of the fiscal statement, local authorities are already having to deal with a trying combination of inflation, increased energy prices, and the rising need for adult and children’s social care. Because of the eternally Westminster-focused ways of our politics and media, the resulting local crises get far too little attention, but they are a big part of why Britain now feels so anxious and exhausted.

Kent county council is facing a £70m annual “overspend” and warning of deep cuts. In Lancashire, the gap is £84m. Wirral councillors have been told to “prepare for the worst”, and get to grips with a financial hole of about £50m. There is a similar picture in Birmingham, Norfolk, Hampshire and countless areas besides. In Sheffield, the city council is set to cut services by £18m, and is floating proposals for monthly bin collections, and the closure of libraries and recycling centres.

Tellingly, voices warning of a deepening disaster include those of prominent Conservatives. The Tory leader of Surrey county council, Tim Oliver, is the current chair of the County Councils Network. Last Thursday, he said that, over the next two years, £3.5bn will be added to the costs borne by 40 of England’s unitary and county councils, which threatens to be “devastating for local services”. His message to his Tory comrades in Westminster was plain: “With inflation causing multibillion black holes in our budgets, we need more help, not less.” Here was proof of the profound disconnection between fiscal economics and the state of society: the best that can be hoped for, it seems, is limited cuts, but what most places need is increased spending.

Millions of people are familiar with what this means as a matter of lived experience: parents of children with special educational needs, disabled adults who get ever-shorter care visits, families with no hope of making it to the top of waiting lists for social housing. Meanwhile, just about all of us put up with a more ambient kind of austerity – parks with broken swings, potholed roads, endless litter. The decline of local amenities and services blurs into our view of other parts of the public sector: we have increasingly low expectations of the police, a shared presumption that schools will be crowded and under-resourced, and an increasingly ingrained view of the NHS as something best used only in an absolute emergency. This is the essence of the public mood right now, a weary disengagement from a state that no longer provides.

A better government would understand that as a sign of unsustainable decay, and rethink. If they were not locked into a view of the world that events are shredding, the prime minister and chancellor could rule out spending cuts and embrace a very different approach: increase inheritance tax, look at broader forms of wealth taxation, reinstitute Boris Johnson’s so-called health and social care levy, or simply put up income tax, not least at the top. The fact that they won’t is a vivid demonstration of the limits of their “compassion”, and two key aspects of the modern Conservative mind. In the thinking of Tory technocrats such as Hunt, public duty now seems to boil down to the idea that holding high office is all about “tough decisions”, a belief that one’s political fibre has not been proven unless human need has been judged to be less important than “efficiency”. This dovetails with that eternal Tory view of public services as flabby, wasteful and always deserving of cuts and savings.

The public, it seems to me, is now starting to understand that such thinking has led to disaster. Beyond Johnson’s misrule and the calamities created by Liz Truss, that realisation looks like one of the key reasons for the Tories’ vertiginous drop in the polls – though running alongside it is a very British kind of pessimism: a belief that, after 12 years of Tory rule, stagnation is the natural order of things and hoping for anything else is a mug’s game. Which of those views wins out will decide our political future. It is a measure of the Conservatives’ predicament that a grim acceptance of more austerity and decline is one of the few things that might give them a flickering hope of recovery.

A fortnight ago I spent four days in Grimsby, the former fishing town in Lincolnshire that voted overwhelmingly for Brexit – and three years later, returned its first Conservative MP in 74 years. Walking around its back streets, I met a man who had just closed the gym he had been running, due to impossible electricity bills. As we walked past shuttered-up shops, he talked about his sense that life now simply amounted to one crisis after another. “It’s like everybody’s waiting, waiting, waiting,” he said. “I’ve stopped looking forward to things being over now: I’ve just started to accept that you have to be happy, and deal with the situation.” What he meant was that refusing to believe that things might get better was the best way of staying sane. But here, perhaps, was proof of one of the Tories’ most underrated political assets – that phlegmatic, fatalistic, very human kind of resilience that makes things far too easy for the stubborn donkeys who lead us.

[frnwhcom]

The Political Odyssey of Mitch McConnell: A Stalwart of American Politics

Mitch McConnell's journey through the corridors of power in Washington, D.C., is a story of strategic acumen, resilience, and a deep-seated belief in conservative principles. Rising from humble beginnings in Alabama and Kentucky, McConnell has become a linchpin in American politics, serving as the United States Senate Majority Leader and as a Senator from Kentucky for several decades. His career is a testament to the enduring nature of dedicated political leadership and the impact such a career can have on the direction of a nation. Early Years and Political Awakening Born on February 20, 1942, in Sheffield, Alabama, and raised in Louisville, Kentucky, McConnell's early life was shaped by his battle with polio and his mother's determination to see him overcome its challenges. This early adversity instilled in him a sense of determination and resilience. McConnell's political awakening began at the University of Louisville, where he served as president of the Student Council, and deepened at the University of Kentucky College of Law. Ascension in Republican Politics Mitch McConnell's foray into politics started as an intern for Senator John Sherman Cooper, laying the foundation for his political career. He later served as the Deputy Assistant Attorney General under President Gerald Ford before returning to Kentucky to embark on a political career that would see him become Jefferson County Judge/Executive in 1977. McConnell's ability to navigate the complexities of local politics highlighted his keen political mind and set the stage for his ascension to the national stage. Senate Career and Leadership In 1984, McConnell was elected to the United States Senate, where he has since served with distinction. Known for his strategic legislative skills and deep understanding of Senate rules, McConnell has been a formidable figure in American politics. His tenure has been characterized by a steadfast commitment to conservative values, including tax cuts, deregulation, and the appointment of conservative judges to the federal judiciary. As Majority Leader, McConnell's leadership style has been marked by a pragmatic approach to governance, often steering the Republican Party through tumultuous times with a focus on achieving legislative goals. His tenure saw significant moments, including the blocking of President Obama's Supreme Court nominee, Merrick Garland, in 2016, and the subsequent confirmation of three Supreme Court justices under President Trump, reshaping the judiciary for generations. Legacy and Controversies Mitch McConnell's legacy is intertwined with the fortunes of the Republican Party and the broader conservative movement in America. While his supporters laud him for his leadership and achievements, his critics argue that his tactics have contributed to increased partisanship and division within American politics. Regardless of one's perspective, McConnell's impact on the political landscape is undeniable. His marriage to Elaine Chao, a prominent figure in her own right, adds a personal dimension to his public persona. Together, they represent a power couple in American politics, with Chao serving in significant roles, including as Secretary of Transportation and Secretary of Labor. Following the tragic passing of his sister-in-law, Angela Chao, Mitch McConnell has announced his retirement, marking the end of a distinguished and influential career in American politics. McConnell's decision to step down comes at a poignant moment, underscoring a period of personal reflection and loss within his family. His tenure in the Senate has been characterized by significant legislative achievements and a profound impact on the political landscape of the United States. McConnell's retirement not only signifies the closure of a pivotal chapter in American governance but also highlights the interplay between personal experiences and public service in the life of one of the nation's most formidable political figures. Read the full article

[laocommunity]

The Great Divide: How Financial Pressure is Tearing Australian Households Apart, and Why Economists Can't Agree on What Comes Next

The Great Divide: How Financial Pressure is Tearing Australian Households Apart, and Why Economists Can't Agree on What Comes Next #The Great Divide: How Financial Pressure is Tearing Australian Households Apart, and Why Economists Can't Agree on What Comes Next# Introduction: Understanding the Great Divide For many Australians, financial pressure seems to be on the increase. As the cost of living in Australia continues to rise, making ends meet can be tough, even for those who work full-time. From the pressure of paying bills to the stress of affording food and housing expenses, many households are feeling the pinch. But why is there a great divide in Australia when it comes to financial pressure, and why can't economists agree on what comes next? In this article, we'll delve into the heart of this problem, examining the challenges Australian households are facing, and exploring why the experts can't seem to agree on a solution. The Great Divide: How Financial Pressure is Tearing Australian Households Apart Despite a seemingly strong economy, many Australians are faced with significant financial pressure. There are several reasons for this, including the rising cost of housing, increases in essential expenses such as energy bills and healthcare, and slow wage growth. According to the Reserve Bank of Australia, Australian households now owe around $2 trillion in mortgages, personal loans, and credit card debt. This means that many families are struggling to make ends meet, with a significant portion of their income going towards repaying debts. One of the most significant drivers of this divide is the cost of housing. In major Australian cities such as Sydney and Melbourne, housing prices have more than doubled in the last decade. This makes it difficult for first-time buyers to enter the market and puts significant financial strain on those who already own property. High housing costs also impact rental prices, making it more difficult for low-income households to find affordable accommodation. Meanwhile, energy prices are increasing rapidly, with some experts predicting that households could see their bills increase by up to 20% in the coming years. Healthcare expenses are also on the rise, driven by population growth, an ageing population, and the increasing cost of medical treatments. The Great Divide and Income Inequality Another factor contributing to the great divide is income inequality. Many lower-income households are struggling to make ends meet, while high-income earners are enjoying increased wealth and stability. This divide has been driven by factors such as the rise of the gig economy, which offers limited job security and low wages, and the increased use of automation and technology, which has driven down wages in some industries. According to the Australian Council of Social Service, the wealthiest 10% of households in Australia now hold almost half of the country's total wealth, while the poorest 50% hold just 6%. This significant wealth disparity has serious implications for economic stability and social cohesion. Why Economists Can't Agree on What Comes Next Despite the clear challenges facing Australian households, economists and experts can't seem to agree on the best approach to addressing these issues. Some argue that a significant overhaul of economic policy is needed, including measures such as increasing the minimum wage, investing in social services, and regulating the housing market. Others argue that reducing government spending and cutting taxes is the best way to stimulate economic growth and create jobs. The political divide on this issue is significant, with both major political parties presenting different views on how to tackle the issue. Part of the challenge of addressing this great divide is that the issue is complex and multifaceted. Finding solutions will require a holistic approach that takes into account the many factors driving financial pressure in Australia, including income inequality, the cost of living, and government policy. FAQs 1. What is the great divide in Australia? The great divide in Australia refers to the significant wealth inequality and financial pressure experienced by many households in the country. 2. What is driving financial pressure in Australia? Several factors are driving financial pressure in Australia, including the rising cost of housing, increasing energy and healthcare expenses, and income inequality. 3. Why can't economists agree on how to address this issue? Economists and experts disagree on how to address this issue because it is complex and multifaceted, with many different factors contributing to financial pressure in Australian households. 4. What are some potential solutions to the great divide in Australia? Potential solutions to the great divide in Australia include increasing the minimum wage, investing in social services, and regulating the housing market. 5. What is income inequality? Income inequality refers to the distribution of wealth within a society, with some individuals or households possessing significantly higher levels of wealth than others. 6. How can the Australian government address the issue of financial pressure? The Australian government can address the issue of financial pressure by introducing policies that support low-income households, increasing the minimum wage, and regulating the housing market to ensure affordability. Conclusion: Navigating the Great Divide The great divide in Australia is a significant challenge, with many households struggling to make ends meet in the face of rising living costs and income inequality. While experts and economists may disagree on the best approach to addressing these challenges, it is clear that a holistic and multi-faceted approach is necessary. This may include measures such as increasing the minimum wage, investing in social services, and regulating the housing market to ensure affordability for all households. Ultimately, addressing the great divide in Australia will require political will and a commitment to ensuring that all Australians can flourish financially and socially. By working together to address this critical issue, we can help create a more equitable and prosperous future for all. #Australia #FinancialPressure #Economists #IncomeInequality #HousingMarket #Investment #GovernmentPolicy #SocialServices# #NEWS Read the full article

[eagletek]

Majority of English councils plan more cuts at same time as maximum tax rises | Local government

More than half of local authorities in England plan to cut more services while also raising council tax by the maximum possible amount, as they turn to increasingly “desperate” measures to remain financially solvent, a survey has revealed. Nine out of 10 councils are raising council tax from April. This alone will not balance their budgets, meaning most are also proposing to cut spending (52%),…

[olko71]

New Post has been published on All about business online

New Post has been published on http://yaroreviews.info/2023/01/cost-of-living-charity-warns-christmas-debt-could-take-years-to-repay

Cost of living: Charity warns Christmas debt could take years to repay

Getty Images

By Kevin Peachey

Cost of living correspondent

Money borrowed to pay for Christmas could take years to repay, according to debt advice charity StepChange.

The charity said it had seen growing numbers of people in debt which led to a surge in enquiries after Christmas.

Its warning comes as a poll for the BBC suggests fears over unmanageable debt.

A third of respondents to the poll who used credit to help get through Christmas and the holiday season said they were not confident about their ability to repay.

StepChange said it had advised more people on 3 January, the first working day after the festive break, than on any day last year.

“Christmas can put great financial pressure on people, causing some to rely on credit and spend more than they can afford. In some cases, this can lead to a debt hangover in the new year that may take many months or even years to repay,” said Richard Lane, from StepChange.

He said many people were unable to adjust their spending habits or have a sufficient income as bills and prices soared, and he urged those struggling not to “suffer in silence”.

“While there are some promising suggestions that inflation may begin to ease later this year, it is likely that there will be some challenging months ahead financially, and the risk of falling into problem debt remains high,” he said.

The government has promised support payments to those most in need.

The online poll of 4,187 UK adults by Savanta Comres for BBC News, Morning Live and Rip Off Britain was carried out on 4-6 January. It found that more than eight in 10 of those asked were worried about the rising cost of living, with some losing sleep over it.

But it suggests people are finding different ways to cut costs to pay their bills. A majority of respondents have been turning the heating down and lights off, or reducing their grocery shop.

That is also the case for Natasha Miller and her mum Linda, who spoke to BBC News as they took six-month-old Lana and two-year-old Penny to a free story and rhyme session in Garforth, Leeds.

“We try not to bath the girls every night, that’s the big one,” Natasha said.

Linda added: “Week by week, with food prices, we’ve tried to budget, to only buy the things we need and not waste as much. We switch off the lights, and we keep the temperature at 16C to 18C in the house. We’re conscious of what we’re using.

“Normally we buy each other presents but we did a Secret Santa this year so we weren’t buying for everyone.”

The poll for the BBC shows half those asked paid for at least some of their Christmas and holiday season spending on credit, and many would have received credit card bills in recent days.

Many turn to credit at expensive times of year because they have little in savings. A quarter of UK adults have less than £100 set aside in savings, a recent survey by the Money and Pensions Service suggested, leaving people vulnerable to rising and unexpected bills.

Official data from the Office for National Statistics shows almost one in 10 people (8%) have had a direct debit, bill or standing order they have been unable to pay in the past month, rising to 10% of those aged 16 to 29, and 13% of those aged 30-49.

Guide to dealing with debts

Work out how much you owe, who to, and how much you need to pay each month

Identify your most urgent debts. Rent or mortgage, energy and council tax are called priority debts as there can be serious consequences if you do not pay them, and so they should be paid first

Calculate how much you can cover in debt repayments. Create a budget by adding up your essential living costs like food and housing, and taking these away from any income such as your wage or benefits you receive

See how you could boost your income, primarily by checking what benefits you are entitled to, and whether you are eligible for a council tax reduction or a lower tariff on your broadband or TV package

If you think you cannot pay your debts or are finding dealing with them overwhelming, seek support straightaway. You are not alone and there is help available. A trained debt adviser can talk you through the options available

Source: Citizens Advice

Prices are rising at a rate not seen for 40 years. The latest official data shows that the cost of living, as measured by the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) measure of inflation, rose at 10.7% a year in November. That means something which cost £100 a year earlier, would typically have gone up in price to £110.70.

The CPI inflation rate has fallen slightly from a peak of 11.1% in October, with a further slowdown expected when the next set of data is published on Wednesday.

However, it means prices are still much higher than they were, and the poll for the BBC suggests that higher bills – driven primarily by food and energy – are causing anxiety and people are doing their best to cut spending accordingly.

Comparable polls for the BBC in June and October last year also showed that more than eight in 10 people were worried about the rising cost of living.

This time, two-thirds of those said it was having an impact on their mental health. Specifically, among that group, 80% said they were feeling anxious, 62% had trouble sleeping and 50% had avoided social activities.

Domestic energy bills are set to rise again in April, from £2,500 to £3,000 a year for a typical household. Yet the poll for the BBC suggests that a number of people have already fallen behind on their energy bills.

Renters (29%), or those in social and council housing (32%) are most likely to have done so in the last six months, according to the responses.

‘We had to bath our kids in the kitchen sink’

What can I do if I can’t pay my energy bill?

Five tips for cutting energy costs this winter

Adam Scorer, chief executive at National Energy Action, which has a helpline for those struggling with energy bills, said: “The cost-of-living crisis continues to devastate the most vulnerable people.

“While the government support has helped offset some of the worst impacts, record energy bills mean every day millions of people are skipping meals or living for prolonged periods without any energy in their homes. At the moment, we are expecting it will get even worse from April.”

To reduce their energy bill, 68% of respondents said they had turned down their thermostat during the winter – an option not open to everyone, but generally regarded as a good way to cut costs.

Around half (49%) said they had only heated certain rooms in their home, and a similar proportion (45%) had bought warmer clothes.

In much the same way as last year, people are looking to cut costs in other areas to save money and cover bills.

Frankie Lakin, from Kippax in West Yorkshire, told BBC News: “I personally sometimes feel the pressure of social media, you see all your friends doing stuff with their children and sometimes it’s a bit overwhelming. I had to say no. I did cut it down a lot this year.

“You spend on your card and it is literally just a tap for everything and you don’t realise how much you are spending,” said the mum of Sophie, five, and Holly, three.

More than 70% of those asked in the poll for the BBC had often or sometimes spent less on clothes in the last six months, while more than 60% had gone on fewer day trips, travelled less to meet up with family and friends, and put off big purchases such as buying a car, sofa or work on their home.

Six in 10 have cut the amount they give to charities, including food banks.

The government has said eight million people receiving benefits and on low incomes will receive £900 cost-of-living payments in three instalments in the next 18 months to help pay the bills.

The first payment of £301 will be made in the spring, with a second of £300 in the autumn and a final £299 instalment in the spring of 2024.

Ministers also confirmed that a £150 cost-of-living payment would automatically go to those with disabilities during the summer, a further £300 payment would be paid to pensioners during the winter of 2023-24, and benefits and the state pension would rise in line with prices in April.

“Tackling inflation is this government’s number one priority, we have a plan that will help to more than halve inflation this year and lay the foundations for long-term growth to improve living standards for everyone,” a Treasury spokesman said.

“We are also providing significant support to help people through these tough times by holding down energy bills and delivering up to £1,350 in direct cash payments to millions of vulnerable households.”

How to help yourself

Here are some mental health tips from BBC Morning Live’s Dr Ranj Singh:

Exercise and diet – The three key areas of trying to eat a bit healthier, move a bit more and make sure you try to get good quality sleep are more important than ever. Shop around for deals, store and freeze food and build “incidental” exercise into your day, such as taking the stairs instead of the lift or walking to work

Be kind to your mind – Take advantage of free online services and resources. The NHS Every Mind Matters website has lots of good advice on looking after your mental wellbeing, and charities can help too

Seek out support – Many local support groups will be free. There is a talking therapy search section on the NHS website. The 111.nhs.uk service also has a section that links to mental health support

Reach out for help – If you are really struggling then make sure you reach out for help. This is sometimes the hardest, yet the most important step. Remember that your GP is there for any mental health difficulties, and A&E is open 24/7 for anyone in crisis or an emergency. If you are in serious financial trouble then organisations like Citizens Advice, StepChange, National Debtline and the Mental Health and Money Advice website can be really helpful

You can see more on a Morning Live cost of living special at 09:15 GMT on BBC One on Monday, and on Rip Off Britain on BBC One at 10:00

More on this story

Who will get £900 to help with energy bills?

6 days ago

‘We had to bath our kids in the kitchen sink’

5 days ago

What can I do if I can’t pay my energy bill?

22 December 2022

‘I couldn’t tell the real bills from scams’

6 December 2022

Millions have less than £100 saved as prices soar

7 November 2022

‘No-one likes us. We DO care. We are Millwall’

2 December 2022

[college-girl199328]

That 2020 City Council motion, part of the discredited “defund the police” movement that followed the death of George Floyd at the hands of four Minneapolis officers that year, failed by a vote of 16-8.

Cutting the Toronto Police budget because of one case of police wrongdoing in Minneapolis was absurd, to begin with. A year later, even Minneapolis voters rejected by a margin of 56% to 44% a motion to redefine their police force along the lines of police rhetoric.

In 2023, given the number of reported crimes in Toronto last year, horrific murders and assaults are likely on the TTC. The Tory wants an increased police presence in the city, something he campaigned on in last year’s municipal election. While homicides (70) were down 17.6% and shootings (392) were down 6.7% in 2022 compared to 2021, every other significant crime category went up.

Reported sexual assaults (3,005) increased by 13%; assaults (21,168) by 10%; robberies (2,876) by 27%; break-and-enters (6,046) by 6%; auto thefts (9,439) by 45%; and thefts over $1000 (1,457) by 37%. Many property crimes are never reported because of the lengthy response time for police to arrive.

Tory’s budget proposal would increase the number of police officers by 200 on a force the city says is the fourth largest in North America officers and 2,200 civilian staff. His proposed increase of 4.3% is below the Toronto inflation rate of 6.6%, below the proposed property tax hike of 5.5%, and below the overall proposed hike of 7%, which includes a 1.5% increase to the city building fund.

It also calls for hiring 50 more TTC special constables (up from the current 80) as part of a $53 million, or 5.6%, increase to the TTC budget in Tory’s proposed operating budget and increasing it to $958.7 million, including a 10-cent hike in single fares. Critics who oppose the police budget when a crime is up make the same argument when a crime is down.

In the real world, it takes years of crime data to determine whether the crime rate is rising or falling over time. There are academic studies that conclude hiring more police officers doesn’t reduce crime, and others that conclude it does, depending on how they are deployed.

Both supporters and critics of the police say one of the most effective ways to reduce random violence, victimization of the mentally ill, and police shootings is through better mental health services.

But that’s a problem the city can’t effectively address without help from the provincial and federal governments.

Finally, hiring more police officers doesn’t automatically mean police response times will improve. It depends on how those officers are deployed.

But even with those qualifiers, Tory is rightly responding to legitimate public concerns about the number and ferocity of crimes in Toronto by doing what he said he would do in last year’s election.

[atlanticcanada]

Halifax explores lessening property tax hike

Halifax Regional Municipality councillors are looking to halve a proposed property tax hike.

At Friday’s budget committee, councillor Tony Mancini said he believes an eight per cent hike to average property tax bills is too high of a starting point.

Instead, Mancini brought forward a motion to have city staff look to build a budget based on a four per cent increase.

"We may end up at five or six [per cent]. We may end up lower or if we’re prepared to change services or reduce services we may even get below that four per cent," he said.

Halifax staff maintain that an eight per cent jump is necessary to sustain city operations without impacting services.

If approved by regional council, the average residential property bill would go up $173 each year for homeowners and $3,955 for businesses.

Halifax's Chief Financial Officer Jerry Blackwood outlined possible paths to get to a less than eight per cent increase.

They include reallocating some, or all, of the $20 million set aside for a stadium, as well as taking the $2 million reserved for the new Art Gallery of Nova Scotia.

Cuts to operations - such as road paving - are also being discussed.

Blackwood noted that $31 million needs to be saved in order to reduce the increase to four per cent, but he also warned even at a six per cent average property tax bill hike, taxes would have to rise next year to at least seven per cent.

"The decisions you make with this budget. I cannot stress how they will impact future budgets," Blackwood said.

Councillor Paul Russell, who also chairs the Budget Committee, wants to limit tax increases and notes he believes the 4.6 per cent hike from last year was too high.

"Nobody wants an increase of four per cent of their taxes. We know that it’s going to be tough," he said. "But I think this is the road we’re going to have to head down."

Russell added the pending carbon tax gives rebates to consumers but not municipalities.

While a four per cent hike is a starting point it may not be where the proposal ends.

"We might have to cut services, we might have to cut some programs. We might have to not do some things that we had hoped to do," Russell said.

Over the next five months, each business unit will be assessed for its costs and wants—all to be added to a shopping list that will be considered by the city.

"We’ll look at that list at the end and bring that into the budget and that would form the final tax rate which we won’t really know until the end of March, the beginning of April," Russell said.

from CTV News - Atlantic https://ift.tt/HFMc8Sg

[keenobservationtiger]

Cotton Buds Making Business

The cotton swab making machine business is rapidly progressing in India. Cotton is the staple fiber made from the natural fibers of cotton plants. The cotton made from the genus Gossypium is primarily composed of cellulose, which is an insoluble organic compound that is a soft and fluffy material. Cotton is the most important fiber crop, which provides the basic raw material to the cotton textile industry. Cotton is grown in tropic and sub-tropic parts and requires uniformly high temperature and is a Kharif crop; it is sown and harvested in different parts of India depending upon the climatic conditions.

China, the USA, and India are the world’s major cotton-producing countries, accounting for about 60% of the world’s production. China alone consumes around 40% of the world’s cotton, and it is a significant export revenue source for major cotton-producing countries of the world.

Cotton is cultivated around 117 lakh hectares in India and accounts for about 37.5% of the global cotton area, and contributes to 26% of the global cotton production. Cotton holds an essential place in the Indian textile mills, and it is used as a primary raw material of India. Cotton provides livelihood to around 60 million people of India by means of cotton cultivation, processing, marketing, and exports.

Cotton buds are the most common item which is used for cleaning the ear, first-aid, cosmetic application, cleaning, and arts and crafts. The cotton buds are composed of small wads of cotton which are wrapped around a rod made of wood, paper, or plastic. The cotton buds were developed in 1923 by a Polish-American Loe Gerstenzang which later became the most widely sold brand name of cotton swabs.

The cotton bud with a single tip on a wooden handle is mostly used in medical settings and is the traditional cotton buds. The cotton buds used for domestic purposes are usually short, about 3 inches long, and double-tipped. Traditionally, the handles of the cotton buds were made of woods while later it was made of the rolled paper and sold in large quantities. The cotton buds are available in a wide variety of colors, such as blue, pink, or green. The manufacturing of the test swabs in a record time of seven days is a dream come true under the ”Make in India” initiative which has conceptualized the production and provided employment to so many unemployed people in India.

The cotton buds are most commonly used for cleaning the ear by removing earwax.  The cotton buds are used for domestic purposes such as cleaning and arts and crafts purposes. The medical buds are used to take microbiological cultures which are usually rubbed into the affected area and wiped where the bacteria grows across the culture medium. They can also be used to apply medicines to selective areas targeting to remove substances or clean them. They can be used as an applicator for applying cosmetics, ointments, or other substances.

The cotton buds are also used to take the DNA samples by scraping cells from the inner cheek in the case of humans. The cotton swabs are also often used in the construction of the plastic model kits while paintings. They are also frequently used for cleaning the laser diode lens of an optical drive in conjunction with rubbing alcohol. In addition to his, they are used to clear the large parts of the computer such as video cards and fans and also used widely to clean video games cartridges in the past.

With so many uses, the demand for cotton buds in the market is growing at a rapid rate and is an essential tool for the healthcare of all individuals irrespective of age, race, culture, or religion, etc. keeping this in mind, the idea to start the automatic cotton swab making machine business is a golden opportunity for the young and aspiring entrepreneurs.

With the increased diversity of product ranges from adult-centric to baby and child-centric and increased popularity of cotton buds in the modern as well as in traditional retailing has increased the sales of the cotton buds to grow. With the rising demand, the locally produced cotton buds have become popular across rural India. it has also become popular in small as well as in metropolitan cities because of the availability of the cotton buds at a much lower price as compared to the branded products have been a key focus for the small manufacturers in India. Therefore, it is an ideal business for employing in the Rural areas as well as it will promote the ‘Make in India” initiative of the Modi Government.

The Government of India is promoting all the manufacturing units, especially in the areas where China enjoys a big share in the global market. The government to achieve the Atma Nirbhar Bharat is pushing the exports by giving various aids to the small and marginal businessmen and it aims to reduce the dependency of the country on the imported goods.

The government through various joint ventures and supporting the local businesses is expanding India’s share in the global market. Keeping this in mind, the government has announced various production-linked incentives for manufacturing the earbuds. This is a great opportunity for Indian earbuds manufacturers to raise their business. It is a big step towards making India self-reliant and manufactures their products. Almost 260 schemes are contracted by the Tri-services at an approximate cost of Rs. 3.5 lakh crores and with the latest embargo on the import of 101 items, the contracts worth Rs 1, 30,000 crore is expected to be placed upon the domestic industries in India.

Registration:- To start the buds manufacturing business in India, the first and foremost thing is the registration of your firm either as a proprietorship company or as a partnership firm. One must register the company as a Proprietorship firm if he has to start his buds manufacturing business as One Person company. To start a partnership firm, one must get registered with the Registrar of companies (ROC) and register as a Limited Liability Partnership (LLP) or the Private Limited Company.

GST Registration:- To start a business, it is now mandatory for any business to obtain a GST number, tax identification number, and an insurance certificate.

License for Trade:- Trade license is very important to be acquired to start a buds manufacturing business. It can be obtained from the local bodies of the respective states.

MSME or SSI Registration:- To avail of the government schemes and benefits, one must obtain the MSME or SSI registration. This will help the businessman to receive all the governmental benefits arising from various schemes.

Trademark:- It is required to make sure to register the buds manufacturing business with the trademark which will help in protecting the brand name.

Before starting a semi automatic cotton swab making machine business, one has to make sure to select the proper machines which are proper for operations suitable for your business.

Following are the description of machines used in the cotton buds making business-

Automatic Cotton Swab Packing Machine : –

The automatic cotton bud making machine is the machine that uses the computer PLC process control and warm wind drying technology is used to help to absorb the coating layer. The microcomputer servo motor aids feed the cotton layer and wrap the absorbent material. In this technology, there is no requirement for a different packaging machine separately.

Spindle Fabrication Machine : –

The paper spindles are processed with the help of a dyeing cutting machine from a heavy grade paper and then a thin layered paper is rolled around it to make it light. While a wooden spindle is developed with the help of a lathe machine process. The plastic spindle is made from the extrusion molding process machine, where the plastic is melted and extruded through a die and sent to a hopper machine.

Packaging Machine : –

The cotton buds are sent through the packaging wheels where the buds are rolled with the pouch. A sensor is attached to the packaging wheel which counts the buds and places them into the packaging bag which is packed with the packaging wheel.

The automatic cotton swab packing machine does not require a lot of space for its operation and it can be started from home. Anyone can start the business even from home this will reduce the cost of investment. The cotton buds making business has the potential to give a good place in the market by becoming a high profit earning business in a short period. With the increased demand for cotton buds, the business is very ideal for start-ups and young entrepreneurs.

In the times like this where the pandemic has left no nation in a mess, India has started the manufacturing of indigenous swabs or cotton buds for the testing of Covid-19. A Mumbai based Micro, Small and Medium Enterprise (MSME) and Tulips has got a green signal from the Indian Council for Medical Research (ICMR) and the National Institute for Virology in Pune. These firms have started manufacturing the polyester-spun swabs which are way cheaper than the imported swabs from the US and China. This has helped various small and indigenous manufactures to retain their livelihood and it has also resulted in producing cheaper testing kits at an affordable price.

We Indians have in reality converted the deadly pandemic into an opportunity and the government through various initiatives has been aiding the cotton buds making business. The government is also being aided by various Non-governmental Organisations like Aatmnirbhar Sena is working very hard to provide finances and cheap credit to aspiring and innovative minds and fulfilling their dream of starting the business.

Therefore, the growth and development of cotton and cotton made products has a vital role in the overall development of the Indian economy.

[uk-news-talking-politics]

'As far as I care, you can sleep in your car': The Corona tenants

By Chaminda Jayanetti

"As far as I care, you can sleep in your car."

Maria had just discovered what it means to be a tenant in the time of corona. It was June 5th and her landlady was ordering her to move out of her lodging that very day.

Just 24 hours earlier, she had given Maria a month's notice to leave, accusing her of using too much water when she washed her hands in line with government advice, and of damaging the property.

Now all of a sudden, she was being summarily kicked out.

"I was feeling all the emotions at the same time," Maria says. "I was scared, I was anxious, I was confused, I couldn't believe what was happening. I wanted to cry."

Maria had been lodging in the house in Bristol for three years when the pandemic hit. Despite there being five other occupants, the landlady blamed her alone for the rising water bill.

"She would be literally breathing on my neck [when I washed my hands], checking on how much water I'd use. She kept watching me all the time," Maria says.

"One day she came up to me and shoved the water bill in my face. She wanted me to pay £300 extra."

On June 4th, she gave her a month to move out after accusing Maria of deliberately damaging her bedroom window - "Why would I damage my own window?" Maria asks - and the next day, she called her into the bathroom they both used and unleashed an even more bizarre accusation.

"She points at the ceiling in the bathroom. And she's like, 'oh, what is that?' I was like, 'what do you mean?' 'Oh, there's black mould on the ceiling'.

"She accused me of pouring water and bleach on the ceiling on purpose to damage the property. That's what she accused me of. Why would I do that? Like, that doesn't make any sense.

"She said I'd have to leave the house immediately, and I looked at her and I was like, 'why would I damage the bathroom on purpose?' And she's like, 'no, you have to leave now or I'm going to call the police'. And I was like, where am I going to go?'

"I go, 'you can't put me on the street in the middle of a pandemic'. And she said, 'as far as I care, you can sleep in your car'.

"And the worst thing about it is she's a nurse."

Private rented tsunami

Despite everything, in some ways Maria got lucky - she was able to stay at a friend's place for a week before finding a new long-term tenancy, though she has little hope of getting back her £420 deposit.

But the situation facing tenants is perilous. Amid a crisis exacerbated by underlying inequalities, lodgers like Maria face more inequality than most, with few legal rights or protections. But even renters with long-term tenancies face a multitude of threats.

Politics.co.uk has heard of numerous cases of rising rent arrears and illegal evictions since lockdown began. Vital repairs have been delayed, with one block of flats left without running water at a time when personal hygiene is paramount. Some landlords have even tried to put the rent up in the middle of the pandemic.

Many migrants are at particular risk due to their insecure legal status and lack of access to benefits.

"If you are undocumented or you don't have the right to be here, then obviously that makes it a bit more complicated, because the landlord, if they know that, they hold some power over you - so whether you're going to stand up to them is another matter," says Fizza Qureshi of Migrants' Rights Network.

And then there's section 21.

Section 21 is the 'no fault' eviction route. It allows landlords to kick tenants out for any reason, as long as the correct procedure is followed and three months' notice is given.

The government suspended legal evictions at the start of lockdown, first until 23rd June and then until 23rd August.

But as incomes fall and rent arrears rise, section 21 eviction notices have been piling in, ready to take effect once the evictions ban is over.

“Nobody should lose their home because of coronavirus," says Polly Neate, chief executive of Shelter. "But if the government fails to act, tens of thousands of renters who’ve lost their livelihoods will soon face this terrifying prospect.

"When the evictions ban lifts on 23rd August, anyone in rent arrears could face automatic eviction from their home. This could unleash a tsunami of homelessness that councils would struggle to cope with."

Aidan Cassidy of Acorn, which campaigns for tenants' rights, says he is aware of 10-20 cases of landlords issuing section 21 notices during lockdown, just among Acorn's thousand members in Bristol.

"Due to coronavirus and the whole load of financial issues that it's caused, a lot of people have missed rent payments," says Cassidy. "Lots of landlords have unfortunately decided to act without any sort of thought for the wellbeing and health of their tenants, and have essentially evicted them or given them a section 21 notice because of these rent arrears."

One such case is an elderly self-employed handyman who can't work during the pandemic and has faced delays to his benefits, leaving him £150 in arrears on his rent.

It's a relatively small amount - but it's proved enough to trigger a section 21 notice.

"Instead of the landlord being sympathetic or reasonable, he's just said, 'no, we're not even going to talk about this, you've got three months to get out'," says Cassidy.

What makes this even worse is that he has chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, a lung condition that makes it hard to breathe and places him firmly on the 'shielding' list of people at heightened risk from coronavirus.

"Obviously if he is now evicted, he's at massive risk," Cassidy explains. "There's absolutely no way he can go about his normal business looking for a new place. The lockdown might be over but the virus is very much still out there and I think any suggestion that life is back to normal for people who are very susceptible to coronavirus is just nonsense."

And evictions have a sting in the tail that increase the risk of enduring homelessness.

"If people are evicted with rent arrears under section 21, the landlord can then take whatever they can off those arrears from their deposit," says Portia Msimang of Renters' Rights London. "So people are left with no deposit with which to get another property. And this is how people fall into homelessness."

It's raining rents

Short of eviction notices, rising rent arrears are a looming crisis. With the economy likely to be hamstrung for months to come, many tenants will be financially squeezed while landlords come knocking for missed rent - one of the biggest sticks of dynamite in a bulging debt timebomb also comprising utility bills, loans and council tax.

"The biggest problem we've faced is people saying that they're worried about getting behind on the rent. And those that are getting behind on the rent aren't getting the help they need from landlords," says Caitlin Wilkinson of Generation Rent.

The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) calculates there were 11 percent fewer rental payments in April and May than a year before. Both the debt advice service StepChange and the Resolution Foundation think tank have estimated that just under 600,000 tenants in the private rented sector are in arrears, while Generation Rent says arrears have trebled.

The government has boosted Universal Credit, reversing years of cuts - but still not enough to cover average rents in a local area.

It has also advised tenants to negotiate rent reductions with their landlords - a laughable prospect for many tenants. Acorn branches report occasional successes, but for the most part landlords hold the whip hand in Britain's housing crisis and don't want to know. The IFS has found only one or two percent of tenants have received a rent holiday.

Biting back

What makes the situation particularly egregious is that the Tories promised to abolish section 21 evictions in their 2019 manifesto. Yet nothing has happened.

A statement from the ministry for housing in response to this article did not specifically mention a ban on section 21: "We are committed to bringing forward legislation to enhance renters' security as part of the largest changes to renting in 30 years.

"We are working with the judiciary to ensure when evictions proceedings start again, arrangements, including rules, are in place to give appropriate protections for those who have been particularly affected by coronavirus.”

Most organisations campaigning for renters' rights agree on the need to increase Universal Credit to cover average rents, and scrap section 21.

The issue of arrears is more contentious. Forcing landlords to waive rents and cancel arrears may contravene the Human Rights Act - one reason Labour dropped this approach under Keir Starmer, sparking anger from campaigners who fear Labour's new policy would leave tenants with unpayable debts.

Generation Rent's solution is to effectively extend the government furlough scheme to landlords, covering 80 percent of their monthly income up to £2,500 a month per tenant - with councils able to restrict the payment on the basis of need.

Then there are rent strikes. Heather, in Haringey, lost her work income during lockdown. After her landlady refused her request for a rent reduction, and with benefits not covering the shortfall, she got involved with the London Renters Union and simply stopped paying. She hasn't heard from her landlady for two months.

"For me it's not just a means thing," Heather says. "It started out like that, but now it feels much more like part of a movement against landlords, against this culture of people accruing lots of wealth by not actually paying anything into the system."

And this is a feature of Britain's economic response to coronavirus. Employers have taken a hit. Workers and tenants have taken a hit. But landlords, the part of the economy that produces the least value, have had the most protection of all.

The names of tenants have been changed in this article.

Chaminda Jayanetti is a freelance journalist. Follow him on Twitter here.

[dreaminginthedeepsouth]

LETTERS FROM AN AMERICAN

December 13, 2020

Heather Cox Richardson

As of today, the United States has more than 16 million confirmed coronavirus infections, with more than 200,000 cases diagnosed every day. We are closing in on 300,000 deaths from Covid-19. On Friday, the Food and Drug Administration gave Emergency Use Authorization to the coronavirus vaccine developed by BioNTech and Pfizer. Today, Pfizer began to ship the first of about 3 million doses of vaccine from its facility in Michigan. Pfizer will be working with UPS and FedEx to send the vaccines around the country.

The first to get the vaccine will be high-risk health care workers. Along with them, White House staffers who work close to Trump will be among the first to receive the vaccine, to prevent more of them from becoming ill with Covid-19 after so many of them have become sick in the past months. There has been a backlash to this information, as critics note that the administration has downplayed the virus, officials have refused to wear masks, and the White House has held large gatherings that turned out to be superspreader events, so the idea that Trump staffers will now take scarce vaccines doesn’t sit very well. After the New York Times broke this story, Trump tweeted late Sunday night that he has asked for staffers not to get the vaccine immediately, “unless specifically necessary.”

Still, the eagerness of Trump administration officials to take it might help convince reluctant Americans that the vaccine is safe. The Biden-Harris team has already launched a drive to educate people about the vaccine, worried that the Trump administration’s downplaying of the virus has set that effort back significantly. While a president-elect generally stays quiet in the weeks before taking office under the principle that America has only one president at a time, Biden is indicating that he will not stay silent in the face of mounting deaths the White House refuses to acknowledge. "We’re in the teeth of the crisis right now," the president-elect said Friday. "This nation needs presidential leadership right now. … You know, we… have to face it head on.”

To combat widespread skepticism about the vaccine, Biden is highlighting trusted public health experts like Anthony Fauci, as well as other well-known figures who have agreed to be vaccinated on television. Biden’s team is also working with the Advertising Council, a nonprofit organization of advertising agencies that produces public service announcements, to launch a $50 million advertising campaign in the new year. This effort is late getting started and has been hampered by Trump’s politicization of the vaccine process, which led executives from both Pfizer and Moderna, the companies with the most promising vaccines so far, to skip Trump’s “vaccine summit” at the White House last week.

Aside from his aggressive action to combat the coronavirus, an evaluation of Biden’s nominees tells us a great deal about what we can expect of his administration. He has chosen institutionalists with a great deal of experience, and with a general bent toward fairness in government. So, for example, Dr. Janet L. Yellen, Biden’s nominee for Treasury Secretary, has served as chair of the Federal Reserve and chair of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, and her hallmark was always her defense of wage workers at a time when leading Republican lawmakers insisted that building the economy meant cutting taxes for those at the top of the economy.

Yellen is known to support lower interest rates, which tend to boost borrowing and thus the economy, but also worries about the extraordinary debt under which the country now labors. The budget deficit in 2020 was $3.1 trillion, and the debt is more than $20 trillion, which means that more than $52 billion of our tax dollars every year go into paying interest on the debt. That amount is as much as the combined budgets of the Departments of Commerce, Education, Energy, Homeland Security, Housing and Urban Development, Interior, Justice, and State. Yellen has suggested that she sees a need to raise taxes—which heartens progressives—and to cut retirement programs, which horrifies them. She worries about the long-term effects of the rising debt as baby boomers age, doubling spending on Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid.

Last year, Yellen told the National Investment Center for Seniors Housing & Care Fall Conference that she thinks our financial issues “will not be solved without some additional revenues on the table, but I also find it hard to believe that it won’t be solved without some changes to those programs…. So this is certainly something that people in this audience should have in their sights as something that will greatly affect the well-being of our cohort or, more likely, our children.”

This moderation is cheering former Republicans, like Jennifer Rubin at the Washington Post, and making progressives despair. But Biden’s picks seem to be less about indicating the content of his administration than indicating he plans to have an administration in the first place. He seems to be signaling that he intends to rebuild the framework of the government that Trump has dismantled in his four years. As for what comes once that framework is rebuilt, his choice of California Senator Kamala Harris—the first woman, and the first woman of color, on a presidential ticket-- as his running mate suggests he is not signaling a return to the past. Biden has always been famous for being in the middle of the Democratic pack, and will move to the left or the right according to what he hears from the public.

The president-elect is rushing to jump into the presidency in the face of a leadership vacuum as Trump continues to stew over his election loss and to plot yet more ways he can try to overturn the results. All those options are weaker than the ones that have already failed. That’s not to say damage isn’t being done: yesterday, Trump supporters who refuse to accept his defeat roamed U.S. cities, including Washington, D.C, where last night, people were assaulted, 33 were arrested, and four stabbed.

It is not clear what is going to happen to the Republican Party with Trump demanding loyalty even as he is losing battle after battle after a very clear defeat in the election, and his base turning violent. Those lawmakers who have signed on to Trump’s attack on our democratic processes have painted themselves into a corner along with the extremist Trump base, and their strategy might weaken them politically.

In an important move today, evangelical leader Beth Moore, the founder of Living Proof Ministries, a Bible-based women’s group from Houston, Texas, who has almost a million followers on Twitter, tweeted: “I do not believe these days are for mincing words. I’m 63 ½ years & I have never seen anything in these United States of America I found more astonishingly seductive & dangerous to the saints of God than Trumpism. This Christian nationalism is not of God. Move back from it…. Fellow leaders, we will be held responsible for remaining passive in this day of seduction to save our own skin while the saints we’ve been entrusted to serve are being seduced, manipulated, USED and stirred up into a lather of zeal devoid of the Holy Spirit for political gain….”

Moore follows this weekend's statement by evangelical Karen Swallow Prior, who said she was “now embarrassed and ashamed” for voting for local and state Republican candidates (although she had never voted for Trump). “What a bunch of money-grubbing, power-hungry, partisan cowards who care nothing about conservatism,” she tweeted. Conservative journalist David French also wrote this weekend that “the frenzy and fury of the post-election period has laid bare the sheer idolatry and fanaticism of Christian Trumpism.”

If evangelicals return to their traditional stance that politics corrupts religion, the modern-day Republican Party is in trouble. In this year’s election, about 80% of white evangelicals supported Trump. They make up 15% of the U.S. population, but because they turn out in huge numbers, they provided about 40% of Trump’s votes in 2020. Since the Reagan years, white evangelicals have been a crucial part of the Republican base. If they are starting to rethink their loyalties, it will be a game changer.

—-

LETTERS FROM AN AMERICAN

HEATHER COX RICHARDSON

[newstfionline]

Headlines

Shedding light on quarantine weight (Worldcrunch) “There’s a heaviness to the pandemic that’s weighing people down, including in a very literal sense,” writes Sylvain Charlebois, professor in food distribution and policy, in Canada’s daily La Presse. “Polls show that some 40% of Canadians gained weight since mid-March. In developed countries, this long period of self-isolation has caused waistlines to bulge—a serious matter, especially since obesity is a clear COVID-19 risk factor. The issue isn’t, of course, limited to this country. Nor is there one single explanation for why some people have put on a few extra kilograms. But governments are choosing to act now, during the pandemic, to raise awareness among their citizens. Leading the way is the government of Great Britain, where public initiatives include a ban on television and online junk food advertising before 9 p.m. Restaurant menus will also be required to display calories, while over-the-top marketing campaigns for calorie-heavy foods will have to stop: No more chocolate bars near cash registers that encourage impulse buying. About 60% of Britons are overweight, including the prime minister himself. Here in Canada, research suggests that about 25% of the people have used self-isolating as an opportunity to change their habits and adopt healthier behaviors. But there’s also evidence that more than half of the population has had more difficulty staying healthy during this period. Either way, the ‘Great Quarantine’—aside from the stress it caused—has changed our habits. While it is important to stay active to successfully lose and maintain weight, it is also essential to improve diets, as most people consume more calories than they need.”

No federal relief leaves states, cities facing big deficits (AP) State and local government officials across the U.S. have been on edge for months about how to keep basic services running while covering rising costs related to the coronavirus outbreak as tax revenue plummeted. It’s now clear that anxiety will last a lot longer. Congressional talks over another coronavirus relief package have failed, with no immediate prospects for a restart. The negotiation meltdown raises the prospect of more layoffs and furloughs of government workers and cuts to health care, social services, infrastructure and other core programs. Lack of money to boost school safety measures also will make it harder for districts to send kids back to the classroom.

Seattle police chief to resign following department cuts (AP) Seattle’s police chief says she is stepping down, a move made public the same day the City Council approved reducing the department by as many as 100 officers through layoffs and attrition. Carmen Best, the city’s first Black police chief, said in a letter to the department that her retirement will be effective Sept. 2. Cuts to the department have been supported by demonstrators who have marched in the city following the police killing of George Floyd in Minneapolis but strongly opposed by the police chief. Measures that would cut $4 million of the department’s $400 million annual budget this year passed out of committee unanimously last week.

Powerful derecho leaves path of devastation across Midwest (AP) A rare storm packing 100 mph winds and with power similar to an inland hurricane swept across the Midwest on Monday, blowing over trees, flipping vehicles, causing widespread property damage and leaving hundreds of thousands without power as it moved through Chicago and into Indiana and Michigan. The storm known as a derecho lasted several hours as it tore from eastern Nebraska across Iowa and parts of Wisconsin and Illinois, had the wind speed of a major hurricane, and likely caused more widespread damage than a normal tornado, said Patrick Marsh, science support chief at the National Weather Service’s Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma. A derecho is not quite a hurricane. It has no eye and its winds come across in a line. But the damage it is likely to do spread over such a large area is more like an inland hurricane than a quick more powerful tornado, Marsh said. He compared it to a devastating Super Derecho of 2009, which was one of the strongest on record and traveled more than 1,000 miles in 24 hours, causing $500 million in damage, widespread power outages and killing a handful of people.

Trump abruptly escorted from briefing after shooting near WH (AP) A uniformed Secret Service officer shot and wounded a man during a confrontation near the White House that led to President Donald Trump being abruptly escorted out of a briefing room during a televised news conference Monday, authorities said. The White House complex was not breached and no one under Secret Service protection was in danger, said Tom Sullivan, chief of the Secret Service Uniformed Division. Trump had just begun a coronavirus briefing when a U.S. Secret Service agent escorted him from the briefing room. The president returned minutes later, saying there had been a “shooting” outside the White House that was “under control.”

Sen. Kamala D. Harris named as Joe Biden’s running mate (Washington Post) Presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden has chosen Sen. Kamala D. Harris (D-Calif.) as his running mate. Harris will be the first Black woman and first Asian American to run for vice president, representing a historic choice at a moment when the country is grappling with its racial past and future. The announcement was made in a text and a tweet from Biden. Harris, 55, is the daughter of Indian and Jamaican immigrants. The first-term senator previously served as San Francisco district attorney and California attorney general.

Belarus’s Leader Vows to Crush Protests After Claiming Landslide Election Win (NYT) A day after the leader of Belarus, often called “Europe’s last dictator,” claimed a landslide re-election victory, his capital slipped into mayhem late on Monday as protesters barricaded streets and riot police officers beat back crowds of demonstrators with violent baton charges, stun grenades, tear gas and rubber bullets. The authorities described what began as peaceful protests as “riots” and vowed to crush demonstrators who have taken to the streets for the past two nights in Minsk, the capital, and in towns across the country. Struggling to contain public fury over a fraud-tainted election that gave Mr. Lukashenko his sixth term in office, the government on Monday shut down subway stations, sealed off roads and poured armed riot police officers into the center of Minsk. By nightfall, security forces and protesters were clashing violently in the capital, and in Brest, a city in the west of Belarus on the border with Poland, as well as in several other towns. In a sign that anger over the election had spread beyond affluent areas in the center of Minsk, Monday night’s protests also convulsed outlying districts of the capital dotted with bleak Soviet-era apartment blocks.

Fallout from Chernobyl’s forest fires (The Atlantic) While forests covered 30 percent of the land in the Chernobyl exclusion zone prior to the explosion of the reactor, today they cover about 70 percent as nature reclaims the poisoned region surrounding the contaminated facility. The problem is that, to some notoriety, trees are quite flammable, and when forest fires hit the forests around Chernobyl they release cesium-137, strontium-90, and plutonium-238, -239, and -240, and enough of those to expose firefighters to triple the annual limit of radiation for nuclear workers. Fires have become more frequent, and more severe: in April, a blaze consumed 165,600 acres, and researchers as far as Norway noticed a bump in atmospheric cesium.

China’s unrelenting crackdown on Hong Kong (NYT) Weeks after ramming through a controversial national security law, Beijing’s proxies in the city are extending their crackdown on protesters and pro-democracy activists. On Monday, Hong Kong authorities raided the offices of the popular tabloid newspaper Apple Daily and arrested its owner, media tycoon Jimmy Lai; his sons; and a number of executives affiliated with Next Digital, the newspaper’s parent company. Monday’s arrests underscored the speed with which the former British colony’s political freedoms—including rights to assembly and freedom of the press—are being curtailed by Beijing. Chinese authorities argue that their repressive measures are merely bringing law and order to an unacceptably restive city. But governments elsewhere are getting increasingly vocal about the danger inherent in China’s actions. Meanwhile, the Trump administration has locked itself into a punitive cycle of sanctions with China. On Friday, the Treasury Department targeted 11 Hong Kong officials, including Chief Executive Carrie Lam, with sanctions for their role in undermining the city’s autonomy. On Monday, Beijing fired back, slapping its own sanctions on 11 U.S. lawmakers and nongovernmental organization leaders as a symbolic riposte. “An assertive tit-for-tat risks further escalation, but at least sends a consistent message that Beijing is willing to impose costs on the U.S. in response to U.S. actions,” wrote researchers Adam Ni and Yun Jiang at China Neican. “So Beijing will almost certainly continue to adopt a tit-for-tat approach to responding to Washington.”

Lebanese demand change after government quits over Beirut blast (Reuters) Angry Lebanese said the government’s resignation on Monday did not come near to addressing the tragedy of last week’s Beirut explosion and demanded the removal of what they see as a corrupt ruling class to blame for the country’s woes. A protest with the slogan “Bury the authorities first” was planned near the port, where highly explosive material stored for years detonated on Aug. 4, killing at least 163 people, injuring 6,000 and leaving hundreds of thousands homeless. Prime Minister Hassan Diab, announcing his cabinet’s resignation, blamed endemic graft for the explosion. “I said before that corruption is rooted in every juncture of the state but I have discovered that corruption is greater than the state,” he said, blaming the political elite for blocking reforms. Talks with the International Monetary Fund have stalled amid a row between the government, banks and politicians over the scale of vast financial losses. “It does not end with the government’s resignation,” said the protest flyer circulating on social media. “There is still (President Michel) Aoun, (Parliament Speaker Nabih) Berri and the entire system.” For many Lebanese, the explosion was the last straw in a protracted crisis over the collapse of the economy, corruption, waste and dysfunctional government.

They return to homes damaged in Beirut’s blast to discover someone has already cleaned them (Washington Post) In the days following the Beirut blast, hundreds of volunteers have climbed chipped stairs and through blasted holes that used to be doors, armed with long brooms and shovels. They’ve entered homes, abandoned in the aftermath of the explosion that destroyed much of the Lebanese capital, and scrubbed blood off the walls, swept glass shards, and set aside torn doors and windows. With evident care, they’ve straightened people’s personal belongings: stacking books, hanging up broken paintings, righting religious statues. Often, the owners are nowhere to be found—or they return home to discover that the volunteers have beaten them there. “Every time I would come back to my apartment, which is obviously relatively destroyed, it would still end up being cleaner and cleaner,” said Adam, 32, who spoke on the condition that his last name not be used out of security concerns. A few volunteers had let themselves into his home through the hole where his front door once stood. “This has been the worst week of my life in a lot of ways,” he said, choking up. But he added, “I’ve never felt like I’m more part of a community though at the same time.” Hundreds, if not thousands, of volunteers have descended onto Beirut’s streets in the past week—some from other Lebanese towns, a few from as far afield as the United States and France—relentless in their efforts to clean up their city.

Violence in Congo (Foreign Policy) Nineteen people were killed in a series of attacks on three villages in the Democratic Republic of the Congo’s eastern province of Ituri, according to Innocent Madukadala, a local chief. Madukadala blamed the Cooperative for the Development of Congo—a paramilitary group that has been accused of carrying out similar attacks in the past. The region has been a hotspot for ethnic tensions, with the farming Lendu people regularly clashing with the herding Hema over land usage. Tensions boiled over into full-scale ethnic conflict in 1999, which was brought under control only after the EU deployed a French-led peacekeeping mission to the region. Tensions between the two groups have recently surged. Since December 2017, violence in the Ituri area has left almost 1,000 people dead and displaced around 500,000 others. At least 636 people have died since the beginning of this year alone.

[mariacallous]

Rishi Sunak steps up to the lectern of doom outside Downing Street, illegitimate, unelected, with no manifesto. The ungovernable party avoided the instant cataclysm of a run on the pound that may have come had Boris Johnson been refenestrated. But that’s the end of the good news, the forecast is bleak.

How Sunak will shape up is anyone’s guess, but he has the advantage of the lowest ever bar if he wants to improve on his two disgraced predecessors. One scar he bears is from that boast to Tunbridge Wells Tories that he had deliberately diverted funds from deprived urban areas to affluent places like theirs. Now we shall see if any concept of levelling up has gone for ever. A budget planned in days will reveal his intent. We know our leaders not by their words but by their budget priorities, and there may end whatever blip of a honeymoon he hopes for.

The country now pays a “moron premium” in higher borrowing costs for the stupidity of a party that chose Liz Truss to trash lenders’ confidence in Britain. Now a “sensible” pair of hands turns the ship into that grim “safe” haven we know so well: the captain and chancellor will crack the whip, batten down the public spending hatches and cut rations and pay. The annual inventory of HMS Britain taken last week by the Institute for Government and the Chartered Institute of Public Finance and Accountancy (CIPFA) found shocking conditions in public services. The chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, warns of “eye-watering” remedies: expect leeches and arsenic.

Everyone talks of “hard choices”. But remember they are choices. This threatened programme of austerity is a political choice, not an economic necessity. Truss crashed the last chance the government had to borrow, which would be the normal Keynesian way to ease an oncoming recession. Now, the straitjacket is no borrowing for day-to-day spending, only for investment. But there’s no better time to be honest with voters who feel the depth of the crisis and blame the governing lunatics who chose tax cuts for the best-off instead of necessary tax rises.

Public services are at breaking point: ambulances are stacked for hours outside A&E while headteachers are warning of huge cuts in their stricken state schools, which are still funded below 2010 rates. The Institute for Fiscal Studies’ green budget graphs show steep falls in each department’s budget with cuts of over a quarter in benefits, housing and local councils. Torsten Bell of the Resolution Foundation warns of the “colossal fall in incomes next year”, with a horrific graph showing the depth of social injustice: those at the bottom lose 15% while top earners lose just 3%. The less you have, the more you stand to lose.

In signing up Sunak, the Tory party will embark on even deeper austerity in search of £40bn in cuts. Voters may not mind that the new prime minister is richer than the King, but it doesn’t help if he ignores starving children when only families living on less than a shocking £7,400 get free school meals. Tory MPs frightened for their seats are cakeists who want fiscal discipline. Yet even they may rebel at any medicine that prescribes cuts to services used by pensioners or adult social care.

Expect little talk of “protecting the most vulnerable” or “compassionate conservatism” from Hunt; he has taken Rupert Harrison, the former chief of staff to George Osborne and architect of austerity, as an adviser. Lest anyone forget, Paul Johnson of the IFS describes that era as “completely unique in history for the scale of spending cuts”. The Institute for Government and the CIPFA say further cuts are impossible. There is nothing left to scrape off the bones of Britain’s derelict public services.

But if you want a sign of how the mood is changing, even among the most orthodox disciplinarians, consider the surprise intervention from Mervyn King, the former governor of the bank of England. He said there’s “a strong case for higher public spending” and that austerity would be more difficult this time round. Back in the day, King praised Osborne’s devastating mid-year axe-swinging in his 2010 budget.

Osborne’s decision to make cuts during a recession led to a deeper recession and slower growth. The UK’s growth has since fallen behind equivalent countries. King seems to have learned from this disaster. Now he tells the BBC it’s “time to front up” and tell the public they need to pay “significantly higher taxes”. No more pretending US tax rates can fund European-style spending, he warns. He’s right – and these facts are best coming from a reformed austerian. King not only backed Brexit but even called for a killer no deal with the EU; now he avoids mentioning Brexit at all. But that gives him all the greater heft in calling for tax rises when the likes of Iain Duncan Smith still mendaciously demand “efficiency savings” that don’t exist.

What’s needed, says the economist Paul Johnson, is a five percentage point rise in income tax, lifting tax rates to 25%, 45% and 50%, which, he tells me, would raise about £50bn. That requires a transparent and honest conversation with the public. He suggests correcting many existing tax absurdities: uncap council tax on high-value properties, for example, which still yield less than the old rates. Or have pensioners pay national insurance on all income, as they are one of the groups least likely to be poor (a quarter of pensioners have £1m in wealth or more).

Labour has its own plans for raising taxes, including windfalls, abolishing the non-dom status that allows people born in another country to pay tax only on their UK income, imposing VAT on private schools and cancelling some of the £175bn blown on tax relief, according to the IFS. Wealth is grossly undertaxed and trillions have been secreted in homes that have multiplied in value which their owners aren’t taxed for.

But the hard truth is that the bulk of tax everywhere comes from VAT, income tax and national insurance contributions. Even with taxes on wealth, there’s no avoiding most earners paying more. Politicians never dare advocate tax rises before an election, but this time there is a groundswell of economists preparing the ground for the public to choose taxes over cuts. Had we taxed more to invest in human and physical capital, as France, Germany or the Netherlands have done for decades, we might be up there with them. Low taxes don’t breed prosperity: thanks to Truss, the public now knows it.

With Sunak now leading the country, we can expect two more years of turmoil: look how even the erstwhile “sensibles” such as Ben Wallace and Alok Sharma backed Johnson. He warns he’ll be back, hovering over these “hard choices” to swoop back for an election if Sunak’s punishments prove lethally unpopular. Labour is now all but certain to win according to most psephologists. Rejecting austerity, it promises to account for every penny raised and spent. Voters need to know these are all choices, not an iron destiny.

[frnwhcom]

The Political Odyssey of Mitch McConnell: A Stalwart of American Politics

Mitch McConnell's journey through the corridors of power in Washington, D.C., is a story of strategic acumen, resilience, and a deep-seated belief in conservative principles. Rising from humble beginnings in Alabama and Kentucky, McConnell has become a linchpin in American politics, serving as the United States Senate Majority Leader and as a Senator from Kentucky for several decades. His career is a testament to the enduring nature of dedicated political leadership and the impact such a career can have on the direction of a nation. Early Years and Political Awakening Born on February 20, 1942, in Sheffield, Alabama, and raised in Louisville, Kentucky, McConnell's early life was shaped by his battle with polio and his mother's determination to see him overcome its challenges. This early adversity instilled in him a sense of determination and resilience. McConnell's political awakening began at the University of Louisville, where he served as president of the Student Council, and deepened at the University of Kentucky College of Law. Ascension in Republican Politics Mitch McConnell's foray into politics started as an intern for Senator John Sherman Cooper, laying the foundation for his political career. He later served as the Deputy Assistant Attorney General under President Gerald Ford before returning to Kentucky to embark on a political career that would see him become Jefferson County Judge/Executive in 1977. McConnell's ability to navigate the complexities of local politics highlighted his keen political mind and set the stage for his ascension to the national stage. Senate Career and Leadership In 1984, McConnell was elected to the United States Senate, where he has since served with distinction. Known for his strategic legislative skills and deep understanding of Senate rules, McConnell has been a formidable figure in American politics. His tenure has been characterized by a steadfast commitment to conservative values, including tax cuts, deregulation, and the appointment of conservative judges to the federal judiciary. As Majority Leader, McConnell's leadership style has been marked by a pragmatic approach to governance, often steering the Republican Party through tumultuous times with a focus on achieving legislative goals. His tenure saw significant moments, including the blocking of President Obama's Supreme Court nominee, Merrick Garland, in 2016, and the subsequent confirmation of three Supreme Court justices under President Trump, reshaping the judiciary for generations. Legacy and Controversies Mitch McConnell's legacy is intertwined with the fortunes of the Republican Party and the broader conservative movement in America. While his supporters laud him for his leadership and achievements, his critics argue that his tactics have contributed to increased partisanship and division within American politics. Regardless of one's perspective, McConnell's impact on the political landscape is undeniable. His marriage to Elaine Chao, a prominent figure in her own right, adds a personal dimension to his public persona. Together, they represent a power couple in American politics, with Chao serving in significant roles, including as Secretary of Transportation and Secretary of Labor. Following the tragic passing of his sister-in-law, Angela Chao, Mitch McConnell has announced his retirement, marking the end of a distinguished and influential career in American politics. McConnell's decision to step down comes at a poignant moment, underscoring a period of personal reflection and loss within his family. His tenure in the Senate has been characterized by significant legislative achievements and a profound impact on the political landscape of the United States. McConnell's retirement not only signifies the closure of a pivotal chapter in American governance but also highlights the interplay between personal experiences and public service in the life of one of the nation's most formidable political figures. Read the full article

[college-girl199328]

Next move to break impasse on health care deal is up to premiers: Duclos

Health Minister Jean-Yves Duclos said Wednesday that it's now up to the premiers to break the impasse over a new healthcare funding agreement since he and his provincial counterparts have already agreed in private on what must be done to fix the healthcare system.

Speaking in Ottawa, Duclos said that despite the failure to sign a new deal at a November meeting in Vancouver, he and the provincial ministers agree on what ought to be done.

"The ball is in the premiers' court," he said. "We were in total agreement in Vancouver, in private." "The problem is the premiers don't want [federal and provincial health ministers] to speak about those outcomes and those results."

Duclos suggested the debate has gotten hijacked by the premiers' insistence on the federal government covering 35 percent of health costs.

"They want to keep fighting in vain for dollars," he said. "And that's a futile fight because they ask for 35 percent." "If you do the calculations correctly, we are already at 35 percent."

Manitoba Premier Heather Stefanson, chair of the Council of Federation, called Duclos' comments "inaccurate." "The Canada Health Transfer wasn't even on the agenda when health ministers met last month. He gave media soundbites outside the meeting but came with no actual proposals of any kind. "Those are the facts," she said in a media statement.

"Canadians are tired of federal games, where the prime minister has avoided talking about health care for over two years while his ministers deflect." Stefanson said the prime minister must meet with the premiers for "serious discussions" on health care because it's a fundamental priority for Canadians.

Canada's premiers say the federal government is only paying 22 percent of the cost of providing health care. They want that amount boosted to 35 percent, an increase of $28 billion to the $45.2 billion Canada Health Transfer (CHT) starting this year.

The premiers also say that once federal health spending has increased, they want it to continue rising by six percent annually going forward. At the heart of the disagreement is how the federal contribution to the provinces is calculated.

In 1977, direct federal funding for hospital and physician services was reduced. The federal government cut some taxes it collects and gave those tax credits to the provinces, allowing income and corporate taxes collected at the provincial level to fund health services directly.

The federal government said that when the CHT and those tax points are combined with the money Ottawa spends on bilateral deals for long-term care, home care, mental health, and some other services, the portion of health care spending covered by the federal government in 2021 to 2022 comes closer to 38.5 percent.

The premiers have not included the tax points in their calculation, saying the CHT, the largest federal transfer to the provinces, covers only about 22 percent of the cost.

Duclos said that there have been 12 meetings between the provincial and federal health ministers to discuss healthcare funding and system reform over the past year.

Duclos said that, thanks in part to the leadership of B.C. Health Minister Adrian Dix, the provinces, and the federal government reached common ground on two key issues over the past year.

The first issue was the recruitment and retention of healthcare workers. They also agreed, Duclos said, on data-sharing initiatives to streamline care. Duclos said that when the premiers went to Vancouver last month, he was optimistic that the agreement on those issues would be released publicly.

"Unfortunately, just a few days earlier, my health ministers received an order from their premiers not to speak about those results publicly," Duclos said. "That's an unfortunate thing because before we come to the means that we need to achieve some ends, we need to agree on the ends and speak publicly about them."

"This is not the correct discussion to be having," Duclos said. "The appropriate discussion is: what are the outcomes that we want to achieve together?" The minister said that, in private, provincial health ministers agree that the healthcare system has to be transformed through increasing access to family doctors, recruiting and retaining staff, training more workers, recognising the qualifications of foreign-trained healthcare workers, reducing the surgical backlog, and implementing a modern data-sharing system.

Asked if the united stand on funding among the premiers could lead his government to "divide and conquer" by striking deals with individual provinces, as the Liberal government did back in 2017, Duclos said that it's possible.

"We did this in 2017 and during COVID-19, and sometimes we need to recognise the diversity of conditions and ambitions that we naturally have in a federation," he said.

"This is my role as well." It is to make sure our agreements with the provinces and territories take into account the different circumstances. "And I am sure that's what we'll do in the following months."

[canadianabroadvery]

What will the upcoming year bring in world affairs? A presidential election looms in America; the wave of leaderless protests from Chile to Lebanon is rolling on; China’s rising belligerence is being felt on the streets of Hong Kong and in the expanses of cyberspace; regional tensions in the Middle East, the Indian subcontinent and in east Asia all threaten to escalate into wars; Europe’s future remains uncertain. Will 2020 be known for an explosion of conflict and instability, for a reassertion of norms and order, or for some as-yet unanticipated historical shift?

These matters too are uncertain to make firm forecasts possible, but you can try to identity the critical factor in each case. The below is my stab at doing so: a (non-exhaustive) list of big questions about the year ahead with the factors that will decide them and a prediction of how those crucial factors will turn out. I will return to these predictions at the end of the year to see how well I did.

1. Will there be war with Iran?

The issue: At the time of writing America has just killed Qassem Suleimani, leader of Iran’s proxy forces across the Middle East, in a drone strike in Baghdad. Tehran has vowed “severe revenge”. This could accelerate the existing spiral of escalation, pulling in players like Saudi Arabia and Israel, and possibly lead to American air strikes on Iran and outright war.

The decisive factor: The Iranian leadership knows war with America would be catastrophic but believes (seemingly correctly, at least until now) that Donald Trump does not want direct conflict. The question is whether the president might blunder into a different position in the heat of the moment. An election is looming and voters do not want war, but Trump is also thin-skinned, volatile and will be desperate to save face if Iran retaliates spectacularly.

My prediction: Iran will most likely calibrate its response to avoid pushing Trump and American public opinion on to a full war-footing; by targeting American allies and interests rather than directly attacking Americans and by using proxies like Shia militias in Iraq and Hezbollah. More likely than outright American-Iranian war is a proxy war played out the Levant, the Persian Gulf and especially Iraq.

2. Will Donald Trump be reelected?

The issue: On 3 November Donald Trump will go up against a Democrat challenger in America’s presidential election. His approval ratings are below those of previously reelected presidents like Barack Obama, George W Bush and Bill Clinton, but as in 2016 he does not necessarily need to win the popular vote to secure victory under the electoral college system.

The decisive factor: Trump’s victory relied on a coalition spanning hardline Republicans, moderate Republicans who accepted his theatrics as the price of tax cuts and white working-class voters who defected from the Democrats over cultural issues. That coalition is fairly robust, so the Democrat candidate’s chance of overturning it relies on his or her ability to build a culturally and, crucially, geographically broader coalition taking in states like Wisconsin and Arizona.

My prediction: With the Trump coalition more consolidated than the fragmented Democrat one, the fundamentals point to reelection for the president.

3. Will global carbon emissions peak?

The issue: Under the Paris Agreement to limit global temperature rises above pre-industrial levels to the 1.5 to 2.0 degree range (within which the future impacts of climate change rise from moderate to very high), global greenhouse gas emissions need to plateau this year and start falling next year. That requires a step-change in global efforts, as 2019 saw carbon dioxide levels rise to record levels and at almost the same rate as in the previous year.

The decisive factor: This will largely be decided by policy in three places: China, the United States and the EU. Together these three largest emitters generate about half of the world’s greenhouse gases. The good news: the “Green New Deal” - the notion of a radical ecological re-wiring of the economy - will be a major feature of US and European politics this year and China is sticking to its Paris targets. The bad news: America’s withdrawal from the Paris Agreement will take place over 2020 and, having stabilised for several years, China’s emissions are growing again.

My prediction: With most countries failing to meet their Paris targets and none of the big three (particularly America and China) decarbonising their economies fast enough, emissions will continue to rise in 2020.

4. Will Boris Johnson get an EU trade deal?

The issue: The newly elected prime minister has until the end of June to decide whether to extend the transition period beyond the current deadline of the end of the year. He has pledged not to prolong this “vassalage” but will struggle to negotiate more than a basic trade deal - one most disadvantageous to Britain rather than the EU - with Brussels in that time.

The decisive factor: Any fast deal will probably cover goods (where the EU has a surplus) but not services (where Britain has a surplus). Nor will it cover many matters relating to data, science or security. The question is whether Boris Johnson believes that his 80-seat majority in the Commons is big enough to absorb rebellions when it comes before parliament, whether he believes voters will tolerate the costs of such a deal and whether, on the first of these at least, he is right.

My prediction: Johnson’s self-confidence and the momentum of his electoral win will allow him to push through a bare-bones deal, sowing the seeds of political crisis in 2021.

5. Will China march into Hong Kong?

The issue: Last year’s Hong Kong protests, sparked by plans to allow extradition to the Chinese mainland, have carried on into 2020 with violent clashes on New Year’s Day. With no resolution in sight and Chinese troops massing at the border, the threat of a military intervention to crush the protests, a second Tiananmen, continues to loom.

The decisive factor: The protesters, boosted by supportive results in district council elections in November, are standing by their demands of universal suffrage, an amnesty for arrested protesters and an independent inquiry into police brutality. So the endgame depends on whether the Chinese leadership’s highest priority is to maintain political, economic and diplomatic stability or to make a example of Hong Kongers to discourage anti-Beijing rebellions elsewhere in its neighbourhood or within mainland China. The former militates for patience, the latter for violent intervention.

My prediction: With Hong Kong due to lapse to full Chinese control in 2047 anyway, Beijing can afford to play the long game, continuing to squeeze Hong Kong and vilify the protesters without a full intervention. With its domestic economy slowing, it needs stability. Only if the unrest in Hong Kong threatens to spill over onto the mainland, which currently looks unlikely, will the Chinese army march in.

6. Will the wave of global protests continue?​

The issue: Hong Kong was just one of many places struck by last year’s wave of street protests. Others included Lebanon, Iraq, Sudan, Russia, France, Spain, Chile and Bolivia. The motives were various but many concerned autocratic or corrupt governments, low living standards or climate change, and most were leaderless movements organised online. Were they a one-off, or part of a longer trend?

The decisive factor: Protests tend to subside when one or more of four conditions are met: grievances are addressed, governments crack down successfully, the means of organisation are curtailed or protest-fatigue sets in. Whether 2019 will be seen as an exception depends on the presence of these factors in the main arenas of protest in 2020.

My prediction: In some cases, like Chile and Lebanon, governments are changing tone or policies in light of protesters’ demands. But even there, protest movements are merely developing into broader more long-term movements. Grievances linger on, most obviously the international intransigence on climate change motivating the Fridays for Future protests. And the opportunities for mobilisation afforded by social media are only growing. Do not expect the protests to go away; instead expect them to evolve.

7. Will the EU become a more serious player?

The issue: Ursula von der Leyen’s presidency of the European Commission gets under way as member states squabble over the next seven-year budget, big challenges like euro-zone reform and migration policy remain parked and relations between Paris and Berlin continue to be at a low ebb. Emmanuel Macron wants to reinvigorate the EU alongside von der Leyen but his proposals, including greater “strategic autonomy” from America and NATO, are divisive.

The decisive factor: Essentially there are two countervailing forces at work. On the one hand Trump, Brexit, the crisis years and shifting geopolitical circumstances are pushing the EU to become a more serious, hard-nosed actor; Angela Merkel’s big EU-China summit in September will be a case in point. On the other this process is exposing new divisions on things like common defence, emissions reductions, the future shape of the union and the relationship with outside powers. The question is whether the centripetal forces (events, threats and other shifts pushing the union together and forward) exceed the centrifugal ones (differences of outlook and interest pulling it apart and holding it back).

My prediction: On balance the EU is more resilient than it looks. But while it may muddle its way forward in 2020, major advances will only take place in the heat of the next crisis.

8. Will there be conflict between India and Pakistan?

The issue: Tensions between India and Pakistan grew in 2019, with tit-for-tat air strikes and diplomatic sanctions. India has revoked the autonomy of Jammu and Kashmir, its only Muslim-majority state, and further inflamed tensions last month by introducing an anti-Muslim citizenship rule, the latest in Narendra Modi’s increasingly blatant flirtation with Hindu nationalism. Further attacks on Indian forces in Kashmir by Pakistani-linked Jihadis, or another terror attack in India like that in Mumbai in 2008, could easily escalate.

The decisive factor: The region is a tinderbox. Modi and Pakistan’s Imran Khan have ramped up their rhetoric, mass media outlets in both countries are talking up confrontation and both countries face economic problems fuelling political grievances. So the question is whether the mechanisms for deescalation still work. An attempted Modi-Khan reset in 2018 came to little and neither America (distracted) nor China (considered partisan by India) make ideal mediators.

My prediction: Though neither Modi nor Khan want war, the possibility of a runaway escalation between the two nuclear powers is one of the most underpriced global risks of 2020.

9. Where will the unexpected bad news occur?

The issue: Lawless and rogue states, inadequate global governance and climate change are three defining features of our age. With them come risks of state collapse and war, cyber-attacks and terrorism, uncontrollable epidemics and refugee crises and environmental catastrophe. 2020 will doubtless see various as-yet-unpredictable instances of many or all of these.

The decisive factor: Most of the world’s states, especially in the complacent West, are less truly sovereign and more interdependent than they believe themselves to be. It is this delusion that causes them to be caught by surprise when an unexpected crisis occurs, as chaos or risk from one part of the world ripples through the global system. The question is not whether this will occur but how resilient states and international organisations are when it does.

My prediction: Given the risks I expect at least one of each of the following categories of cataclysm. First, an extreme climate event hitting part of the West not used to the levels of climate chaos already felt in the global south (the fires raging in Australia are but a foretaste). Second, an instance of violence or other instability in one of the world’s rogue or war-torn zones (most probably North Korea, Yemen, Syria, Libya, Burkina Faso, Venezuela or eastern Ukraine) causing a crisis in a country far from its own borders. Third, a crisis or calamity specifically caused by a failure of international governance and democracy; that is, by insufficient coordination, information sharing or collective action at the supra-regional or global level.

10. Where will the unexpected good news occur?

The issue: It is customary, in these end-of-year or start-of-year round ups, to nod to how many good things have happened beyond the headlines: poverty rates and infant mortality falling, literacy and immunisation rates rising. But each year also throws up specific causes to rejoice. In September for example Tunisia held what were widely deemed the Arab world’s first TV debates, during its second free election since the Arab Spring. There will be such happy moments in 2020 too.

The decisive factor: China, Latin America and Africa have thrown up plenty of good rising-living-standards stories in recent years. But with authoritarianism on the march in China and Brazil, and Africa’s rise more halting and troubled than some sunny predictions of the past decades suggested, the picture there is more mixed.

My prediction: There will nonetheless be specific and epochally good news from Africa in 2020. It is possible that the Ebola epidemic will be finally vanquished during the year. And Ethiopia goes to the polls in May, with good prospects of victory for the reformist prime minister Abiy Ahmed (winner of 2019’s Nobel Peace Prize). That would put Africa’s second most populous country, its future in the balance, on a positive course. Elsewhere this could be a further year of growth for progressive mobilisations, from the Fridays for Future marches to anti-nationalist movements like Italy’s “Sardines” and emerging digital rights campaigns; I predict that these will trigger at least one major, positive change of national government or international policy during 2020.