#DigitalSupplyChain

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In the age of Industry 4.0, the convergence of robotics and ERP systems is paving the way for unprecedented levels of automation in smart factories. As industries embrace the Internet of Things (IoT) and smart technologies, integrating robotics with ERP systems is becoming crucial for achieving complete automation and optimizing production workflows.

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Valtitude -SCM Process - Overview of Demand/Supply planning –

 Overview of Demand/supply and MPS Process

Production Strategies

Key objectives of supply chain management – Customer demand fulfillment

S&OP as the key driver of monthly planning process

Inventory impact on functional Stakeholders

Why Forecast and Plan?

The Service – Cost – Balance Model

Introduction to Demand Planning- What, Why and How?

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Demand Planning -Business Plan

The Business Plan or the annual Budget often follows the following outline:

Strategic analysis of external factors

Economic

Political

Competitive

Internal Factors

Development of a Sales and Marketing Plan

Calendar Monthly forecast

Operating Budget

Manufacturing Costs

Administrative costs

Sales and Marketing Overheads

Capacity and other bottlenecks

Organizational Consensus

Revisions to Spend and volumes

Management buy-in

Outlining Key risks and opportunities to the Annual Budget

Key process driver is forecast reconciliation and a methodology to determine and analyze exceptions. Reconciliation can often be painful. And it can be made worse by a simplistic process lacking an exceptions methodology. Identifying major variances and diagnosing the root-causes for the variance can quickly result in plan consensus.

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Valtitude -Advanced smoothing models

First Order Exponential Smoothing

Holt Models to accommodate the trend

Holt-Winters Model

Exponential Trend and Dampening

Interaction between components

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Demand Planning -Why S&OP

Fragmented Planning Activities

– Supply chain challenges – Service, costs and inventories

Disparities between the Financial forecast and operational forecasts

Bottom Line challenges from Fragmented Planning

Benefits of a holistic S&OP Design

Core Components of SIOP

Consensus Demand Planning

Rough Cut Planning and Supply Collaboration

Executive Presentation

Demand-Supply Balancing

Modeling by exception

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Valtitude -Determining Market Share 

Share estimates of the total market can be done as an objective or target estimates based on the promotional plans and budgets committed to achieving that share.  

The other option is to forecast consumption independently and derive the share through two different estimations, namely the market and the consumption. 

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Valtitude -Exception Reporting

Forecast Pro’s flexible exception reporting allows you to focus on areas that need your attention.

The reports are easily customizable to reflect different performance metrics ? such as forecast vs. history or whether forecast error exceeds a pre-defined threshold – and give you a quick way to identify potential problem areas.

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Valtitude -Creating Segmentation

Why we need to create segmentation?

This helps planners with planning priorities and brining attention of other stakeholders into consensus process.

For an advanced demand planning team, segmentation helps to define the statistical modeling strategy e.g. for high volume products we can go with a custom advanced stat model for low volume a simple exponential would be a good starting point.

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Valtitude -Supply Chain Exception Management

Supply Chain Exception Management

Design, Analysis, and Implementation of an zupply chain exception management approach have helped companies to:

Streamline the planning process.

Improve forecast accuracy significantly.

Focus on the major supply chain drivers that improve the bottom line.

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Demand Planning - Modeling special cases of Demand Product Life Cycle & Long-term Planning

Product Lifecycle and trend • Launch Forecasting • Volume effect on line extension

Event Modeling Baseline vs. Incremental • Illustration of Event Models

Planning for Intermittent Demand What is Intermittent Demand & what causes it? Strategies to handle intermittent demand & Statistical Models for Intermittent Demand

Higher-order Models

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Demand Planning -Collaborative Demand Planning

Setting up a Consensus Process

Gathering Promotional and event intelligence

Evaluating promotional lifts

Achieving consensus with the Sales Group

Customer Collaboration

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Demand Planning -Effects of Demand Volatility

Is MAPE a questionable measure?

Incentivizing Demand Planners

Identifying forecast Bias when there is persistent volatility

Demand Management

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Demand Planning -Business Planning and Budgeting

Conducted as an annual exercise, the business plan is the volume, cost and profit plan for, typically, the upcoming year. This is also referred to as the annual budgeting process. Some companies conduct this as part of the long-range forecasting process, which cover anywhere from three to seven years.

Business planning is critical for every company, while long-term forecasting is indispensable for companies with longer product development cycles. The long-term plan provides the inputs for capacity planning and other long-term expansion initiatives.

It is common knowledge that longer-term forecasts are more erroneous than short-term forecasts. There are more dynamic variables and error processes at play in determining the conditions expected to prevail in the future. So it is also necessary to subject your forecast to a sensitivity analysis to understand the robustness of the forecast if the underlying economic and business environment changes. DemandPlanning.Net has developed a unique methodology to develop long-term forecasting and analyzing forecast sensitivity.

Often the annual Marketing Plan is the driver for the demand information in the annual budget. The Marketing Plan is developed with a volume forecast for the year along with the spending levels necessary to create and sustain the expected demand for the products. Marketing-mix modeling is a key component of developing the Marketing Plan.

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SAP IBP is a popular supply chain planning tool among many Fortune 1000 companies today. SAP IBP can help you create better demand forecasts and finished goods plans when properly implemented together with appropriate training for the planning professionals.

The main focus is Statistical modeling and forecasting in SAP IBP. We will cover the various modeling strategies including the automatic model selection procedures. We will spend quality time on explaining data analysis and graphical review in IBP.

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Valtitude - Data Integration and Cleansing

It is all about the data

The Forecast Problem and Data collection

Define True Demand

Data challenges  - Shipment Vs. Orders  - Gross Demand Vs. Net Demand

Historical shifts in demand

Data filtering

Outliers– Identification and Correction

The process to Identify Outliers

Tolerance band

Methodology for outlier correction

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