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luxuryroof · 3 months ago

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Budget 2025: A Game Changer for Indian Real Estate? Key Expectations & Market Impact

Will This Budget Unlock Growth, Affordability, and Investment in Real Estate?

As India gears up for Union Budget 2025, the real estate sector is on high alert, anticipating policy shifts that could redefine housing affordability, taxation benefits, and infrastructure expansion. With the industry contributing nearly 7% to the GDP and projected to reach $1 trillion by 2030, real estate stakeholders—homebuyers, investors, and developers—are eyeing reforms that can boost demand, streamline regulations, and fuel long-term growth.

From tax breaks for homebuyers to incentives for green real estate, this year’s budget could be a make-or-break moment for the property market. Here’s what the industry is hoping for:

1. Affordable Housing: Bigger Incentives, Bigger Opportunities

One of the biggest expectations from Budget 2025 is an aggressive push for affordable housing, a segment that remains a key government priority. With the Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana (PMAY) in full swing, developers and buyers alike are looking for:

✅ Extension of PMAY Benefits – Increased funding and subsidies for first-time homebuyers under Credit Linked Subsidy Scheme (CLSS). ✅ Higher Tax Deductions – Raising the Section 80EEA benefit (currently ₹1.5 lakh) to ₹2.5 lakh to help middle-income buyers. ✅ Lower GST on Under-Construction Properties – Reducing the current 5% GST (without ITC) to 3% or reinstating input tax credit (ITC) for builders to cut costs.

These moves could enhance affordability, improve sales volumes, and strengthen India’s housing demand.

2. Tax Benefits: More Savings for Homebuyers & Developers

Industry players have long demanded higher tax exemptions to boost liquidity and sales. Key tax-related expectations from Budget 2025 include:

📌 Increase in Home Loan Interest Deduction – Raising the Section 24(b) limit from ₹2 lakh to ₹5 lakh can make home loans more attractive. 📌 Relaxation in Capital Gains Tax – Expanding Section 54 exemptions to encourage reinvestment in real estate. 📌 GST Input Tax Credit (ITC) for Developers – Allowing builders to claim ITC can reduce project costs and make homes more affordable.

A well-balanced tax regime could encourage new home purchases, attract more investors, and drive fresh capital into the sector.

3. Infrastructure & Urban Expansion: Driving Real Estate Growth

Real estate thrives on strong infrastructure, and this budget is expected to boost metro expansions, smart city projects, and expressway networks. Experts are calling for:

🏗️ More Funding for Smart Cities & Urban Development – Expanding beyond metros to Tier 2 & Tier 3 cities. 🚆 Increased Connectivity Through Highways & Metro Rail – Unlocking new investment zones for real estate growth. 🏢 SEZ Reforms & Commercial Hubs – Making it easier to develop and sell properties in Special Economic Zones.

With India’s urbanization rate growing at 2.3% annually, these measures could expand real estate demand beyond metro cities.

4. REITs, Co-Living & Rental Housing: Unlocking the Next Big Market

The rental housing sector and Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) are emerging as game-changers, and Budget 2025 could further boost these markets with:

💼 Tax Incentives for REIT Investors – Offering capital gains tax exemptions or tax-free dividends to increase retail participation. 🏘️ Rental Housing & Co-Living Support – Special incentives for rental housing projects, student housing, and senior living. 📊 New Rental Housing Policy – Making it easier for private players to set up and manage large-scale rental properties.

With millennials and Gen Z preferring rental options, a structured rental housing framework could increase affordability and expand investment opportunities.

5. Stamp Duty & Registration Charges: A Much-Needed Rationalization

One of the biggest roadblocks in real estate transactions is high stamp duty and registration charges, which vary across states. The sector is hoping for:

📉 Reduction in Stamp Duty for First-Time Buyers – A centralized reduction policy to increase home sales. 🏡 Tax Deduction on Stamp Duty Costs – Making stamp duty partially deductible under income tax laws to improve affordability.

These measures could significantly lower property acquisition costs and encourage more real estate transactions.

6. Green Real Estate & Sustainable Development

Sustainability is the future, and Budget 2025 is expected to encourage eco-friendly real estate practices by:

🌱 Tax Benefits for Green Buildings – Reduced GST and subsidies for energy-efficient and sustainable real estate projects. ⚡ Incentives for Solar & Renewable Energy in Housing – Subsidies for solar power, rainwater harvesting, and energy-efficient homes. 🏗️ Higher Floor Space Index (FSI) for Green Certified Projects – Allowing eco-friendly buildings to have higher permissible construction limits.

With climate change concerns rising, incentivizing green real estate can attract global investors and ensure long-term sustainability.

Final Thoughts: Will Budget 2025 Be a Game Changer?

The Union Budget 2025 has the potential to revolutionize the real estate sector by focusing on affordability, infrastructure expansion, taxation benefits, and sustainable development.

For homebuyers, tax relaxations and lower interest rates could make homeownership easier. For developers, GST simplifications and incentives could reduce costs and increase profitability. For investors, REIT incentives and rental housing policies could unlock new income streams.

A progressive and real-estate-friendly budget could fuel industry growth, attract foreign investments, and make housing more accessible for millions of Indians. All eyes are now on the finance ministry—will Budget 2025 deliver the much-needed boost? Only time will tell. 🚀

#IndianEconomy (Context)#EconomicGrowth (Key concern)#FiscalPolicy (Government's approach)#FinancialPlanning (Impact on individuals)#BudgetAnalysis (For expert commentary)#BudgetUpdates (For news and announcements)#GDP (Gross Domestic Product - important metric)#Inflation (Major economic factor)#Sectors (Choose those relevant to your content):#AgricultureBudget (For farming and rural issues)#HealthcareBudget (For health and medical spending)#EducationBudget (For schools and universities)#InfrastructureBudget (For roads #railways #etc.)#DefenceBudget (For military spending)#RuralDevelopment (Focus on rural areas)#ITsector (For technology and related industries)#RealEstateBudget (For property and housing)#Manufacturing (For industrial sector)#EnergyBudget (For power and renewables)#Taxes & Reforms:#TaxReforms (Expected changes)#GST (Goods and Services Tax)#DirectTaxes (Income tax #corporate tax)#IndirectTaxes (Sales tax #excise duty)#Subsidies (Government support programs)#Expectations & Predictions:

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lawyer2ca · 3 months ago

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🚨 Expectations for Income Tax Changes in Budget 2025 🚨

- @lawyer2ca

With Budget 2025 just around the corner, here’s a breakdown of key tax changes we can expect:

• Direct Tax Code (DTC): The DTC is expected to simplify the tax structure, with lower rates, fewer slabs, and easier filing processes. We might also see clearer rules for capital gains and more taxpayer-friendly compliance.

• Deductions & Exemptions:

- Increase in Section 80C limit to ₹2.5 lakh or more.

- Higher deductions under Section 80D for health insurance, especially for senior citizens.

- Home loan interest deduction could be increased to ₹3 lakh.

• Green Initiatives: Tax incentives for electric vehicles, renewable energy, and sustainable investments. Budget 2025 is likely to continue focusing on the EV sector with additional subsidies and tax relief for both buyers and manufacturers. The government may also introduce new reforms to promote shared electric mobility, such as electric cabs and buses, to reduce pollution and ease traffic congestion.

• Penalties & Prosecution for Dishonest Taxpayers:

- Expect tighter penalties and stricter prosecution for taxpayers who claim fake deductions or provide false information in their returns.

- Increased scrutiny on high-value claims with measures to reduce tax fraud, ensuring a more transparent system.

Budget 2025 promises to bring greater tax relief, simplified compliance, and stronger enforcement against dishonest taxpayers. Stay tuned for the official announcements! 💡

#Budget2025 #TaxReform #Directtaxcode #IncomeTax #TaxCompliance #personalfinance #corporatetax #Lawyer2CA

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nocknocknock · 3 months ago

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Market Reaction to Donald Trump’s Inauguration: Analyzing the Movement of U.S. Stock Indices

The inauguration of a new president is always an event that sparks numerous forecasts and expectations, particularly within financial markets. This was certainly the case on January 20, when Donald Trump officially took office as the 45th president of the United States. This period was marked by a rise in key U.S. stock indices, which could indicate positive sentiment among market participants.

Stock Index Performance Leading Up to and During the Inauguration

Financial markets typically react strongly to political changes, especially when it concerns the United States, a global economic powerhouse. The trading session leading up to the inauguration showed significant positive movement.

Key Index Movements:

&P 500: The broad-market index increased by 1%, reaching 2,396.40 points;

Dow Jones Industrial Average: A 0.78% rise took it to 20,080.13 points;

NASDAQ Composite: The technology-heavy index saw the highest growth, climbing 1.51% to 5,656.34 points.

This performance reflects a market response aligned with the expectation of potential economic and tax reforms under Trump’s administration.

Evening Trading Results: Futures Show Continued Growth

Futures data also mirrored the gains seen in the main stock indices, indicating the continuation of positive momentum.

Futures Performance:

S&P 500 Futures: Up 0.31%, reaching 2,398.20 points;

Dow Jones Futures: Increased by 0.3%, reaching 20,126.40 points;

NASDAQ 100 Futures: The strongest growth among the futures, rising 0.39% to 5,342.80 points.

This increase in futures could be a sign of further index strengthening throughout the week, should current macroeconomic and political trends continue.

Factors Influencing Market Behavior

The movement in stock indices is shaped by a variety of factors, with particular focus on expectations surrounding the new president’s policies. Donald Trump promised significant changes to the U.S. economy, and market participants have incorporated these expectations into their valuations.

Key Drivers of Market Growth:

Tax Reforms: Market hopes for reduced tax burdens on businesses;

Infrastructure Projects: Announced investments in infrastructure development, seen as a potential economic stimulus;

Political Uncertainty: The resolution of pre-election uncertainties as a signal for long-term planning.

Trends and Forecasts

The continued growth of stock indices will depend on the successful implementation of Trump’s promised reforms and his first legislative actions. In a stable geopolitical environment, financial markets are likely to experience:

Growth in the Technology Sector: Driven by advancements in new technologies within the U.S;

Strengthening of the Industrial Sector: Supported by infrastructure projects and investments;

Moderate Growth in Stock Indices: Underpinned by strong earnings reports from American companies.

If Trump’s economic policies are realized as planned, they may further stimulate market growth, especially in sectors such as technology and infrastructure.

Financial markets greeted Donald Trump’s inauguration with optimism, reflected in the rise of major stock indices and futures. The sustained growth of these indicators may indicate high expectations from market participants regarding the new economic policies. Nevertheless, the potential for further growth is directly tied to the actual actions of the new president’s administration.

Our website: https://goldriders-robot.com/

#Analyzing #Donald Trump's #Inauguration #Market Reaction

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elizabethcariasa · 7 years ago

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4.1% GDP is tied to tax cuts and tariffs

It's called the dismal science , but Donald J. Trump's vision of the U.S. economy was anything but gloomy after the Commerce Department on July 27 reported gross domestic product (GDP) growth for the second quarter of the year was 4.1 percent.

That's a welcome amount of growth based on the economy's broadest measure of goods and services. That's why it's this week's By the Numbers figure.

But, say most of the practitioners of the dismal science, aka economists, let's not get carried away.

They caution that while the latest measure of economic growth is good news for both U.S. businesses and consumers in the short term, the rate is not likely to be sustainable longer term.

There are a couple of reasons to be cautious of the unexpectedly large economic uptick, which, despite 45's touting of it as an historic first, isn't .

As the chart below, created by CBS News based on Bureau of Economic Analysis data , shows, GDP grew at 4 percent of more in four separate quarters once the economy started recovering follow the Great Recession.

And both of the yellow economic flags now waving are attributable to one-time events created by the Trump Administration's own actions.

Taking tariffs into account: First, there are the tariffs . Economists almost universally agree that the most recent GDP spike was pumped up by these trade actions and continuing threats.

After Trump placed tariffs on billions of dollars of imports, the United States' global trading partners did two things.

They not only imposed their own retaliatory tariffs, but also by bought U.S. goods before the tariffs were put in place so as to avoid the coming price increases.

That created an unnatural spike in those sectors, accounting for a 9.3 percent increase in exports in the second quarter.

But, warn economists and U.S. producers, that trend won't last. Expect exports to slump in 2018's final two quarters, dragging down overall GDP for those economic measurement time frames.

When this happens, many say the full year's economic growth rate should settle in at around 3 percent. Which isn't bad, but it isn't what Trump and the GOP had promised during the campaign.

And if the trade and tariff situations aren't worked out soon, the instability and potential full-fledged trade wars could cause this current good economic news to quickly crumble.

Tax cuts' boost: Second, there's the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) .

Part of the good GDP numbers for the second quarter was increased personal and business spending. That's exactly what Trump and the GOP predicted would happen when the new tax laws took effect.

Sen. Orrin Hatch (R-Utah), chair of the tax-writing Senate Finance Committee, joined Trump in celebrating the most recent GDP numbers and their connection to tax law changes via a Tweet .

Another #taxreform promise kept: strong economic growth. https://t.co/JESpAGu0ZR

— GOP Senate Finance (@GOPSenFinance) July 27, 2018

But the size of the recent TCJA-spurred spending spikes, especially by the few companies that invested in equipment rather than buying back their stock, are likely aberrations.

Even individual consumers, who found the tax cuts meant more to spend each paycheck, are not expected to keep buying at the 4 percent rate, the biggest increase since 2014, reported this spring.

Rising interest rates and higher fuel prices are likely to slow the pace of overall spending.

Still, 4.1 percent is good. So let's enjoy it while we have it. Even if the third and fourth quarters aren't quite as large, growth is growth. I'll take it any day over the alternative.

You also might find these items of interest:

GOP releases sketch of Tax Reform 2.0

What will the trade war with China cost you?

A look at the new tax-reform revised Form 1040 and schedules

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christophergill8 · 7 years ago

Text

4.1% GDP is tied to tax cuts and tariffs

It's called the dismal science, but Donald J. Trump's vision of the U.S. economy was anything but gloomy after the Commerce Department on July 27 reported gross domestic product (GDP) growth for the second quarter of the year was 4.1 percent.

That's a welcome amount of growth based on the economy's broadest measure of goods and services. That's why it's this week's By the Numbers figure.

But, say most of the practitioners of the dismal science, aka economists, let's not get carried away.

They caution that while the latest measure of economic growth is good news for both U.S. businesses and consumers in the short term, the rate is not likely to be sustainable longer term.

There are a couple of reasons to be cautious of the unexpectedly large economic uptick, which, despite 45's touting of it as an historic first, isn't.

As the chart below, created by CBS News based on Bureau of Economic Analysis data, shows, GDP grew at 4 percent of more in four separate quarters once the economy started recovering follow the Great Recession.

And both of the yellow economic flags now waving are attributable to one-time events created by the Trump Administration's own actions.

Taking tariffs into account: First, there are the tariffs. Economists almost universally agree that the most recent GDP spike was pumped up by these trade actions and continuing threats.

After Trump placed tariffs on billions of dollars of imports, the United States' global trading partners did two things.

They not only imposed their own retaliatory tariffs, but also by bought U.S. goods before the tariffs were put in place so as to avoid the coming price increases.

That created an unnatural spike in those sectors, accounting for a 9.3 percent increase in exports in the second quarter.

But, warn economists and U.S. producers, that trend won't last. Expect exports to slump in 2018's final two quarters, dragging down overall GDP for those economic measurement time frames.

When this happens, many say the full year's economic growth rate should settle in at around 3 percent. Which isn't bad, but it isn't what Trump and the GOP had promised during the campaign.

And if the trade and tariff situations aren't worked out soon, the instability and potential full-fledged trade wars could cause this current good economic news to quickly crumble.

Tax cuts' boost: Second, there's the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA).

Part of the good GDP numbers for the second quarter was increased personal and business spending. That's exactly what Trump and the GOP predicted would happen when the new tax laws took effect.

Sen. Orrin Hatch (R-Utah), chair of the tax-writing Senate Finance Committee, joined Trump in celebrating the most recent GDP numbers and their connection to tax law changes via a Tweet.

Another #taxreform promise kept: strong economic growth. https://t.co/JESpAGu0ZR

— GOP Senate Finance (@GOPSenFinance) July 27, 2018

But the size of the recent TCJA-spurred spending spikes, especially by the few companies that invested in equipment rather than buying back their stock, are likely aberrations.

Even individual consumers, who found the tax cuts meant more to spend each paycheck, are not expected to keep buying at the 4 percent rate, the biggest increase since 2014, reported this spring.

Rising interest rates and higher fuel prices are likely to slow the pace of overall spending.

Still, 4.1 percent is good. So let's enjoy it while we have it. Even if the third and fourth quarters aren't quite as large, growth is growth. I'll take it any day over the alternative.

You also might find these items of interest:

GOP releases sketch of Tax Reform 2.0

What will the trade war with China cost you?

A look at the new tax-reform revised Form 1040 and schedules

from Tax News By Christopher http://www.dontmesswithtaxes.com/2018/07/41-gdp-is-tied-to-tax-cuts-and-tariffs.html

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nothingman · 7 years ago

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It’s mostly nonsense, but the economy really is doing well.

Corporate America is beginning to routinely frame any kind of positive announcement in ways that Republicans say is evidence their tax bill is already boosting the economy. The truth, however, is that the economic trends at work long predate the passage of the tax bill — or even Donald Trump’s inauguration. The real change is political.

More good news→ increased employee wages and benefits, such as parental and sick leave, as a result of #TaxReform. https://t.co/sZ8TGmUX3t

— Paul Ryan (@SpeakerRyan) January 24, 2018

Back in October 2016, for example, Apple announced plans to make $16 billion worth of capital expenditures in fiscal year 2017, up from $12.8 billion in the previous year. Apple is both the world’s biggest company and one of its most iconic and recognizable brands. These facts — duly reported in the company’s annual Form 10-K filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission — were widely noted in the business and technology press but weren’t considered to be a major political story.

By the same token, when Walmart announced a wage increase in February 2015 and then another one in January 2016, everyone got the basic story: The years-long process of economic recovery was underway, and a company forced to share a bit more money with its workforce wanted to milk the moment for whatever PR opportunity it was worth.

Apple’s announcement on Wednesday that it “expects to invest over $30 billion in capital expenditures in the US over the next five years” (not in any clear way an increase over its prior pace), by contrast, was immediately framed by the company itself as linked to the recent Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. It was then embraced by President Trump as a personal vindication of his policies.

I promised that my policies would allow companies like Apple to bring massive amounts of money back to the United States. Great to see Apple follow through as a result of TAX CUTS. Huge win for American workers and the USA! https://t.co/OwXVUyLOb1

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) January 17, 2018

Similarly, Walmart’s 2017 wage announcement — unlike its 2016 or 2015 predecessors — was hailed by Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell as a partisan political victory.

Thanks to @POTUS signing the #TaxCutsandJobsAct into law, thousands of @Walmart employees in #Kentucky will now receive bonuses and higher wages. https://t.co/8biW4mYXn8

— Leader McConnell (@SenateMajLdr) January 11, 2018

The explicit linkages of these wage and investment moves to the recently passed tax cuts are ridiculous. But Democrats have a hard time punching back on them because the real truth — that for the first time in a long time, the underlying labor market is really healthy — is honestly not much of a burn on the GOP. And corporate America is happy to play its appointed role in this partisan dance because rich business executives love GOP tax cuts and business-friendly regulation.

More broadly, the CEO class in America has decided that a steady dose of flattery is the best way to keep Trump focused on his current embrace of hard-right economic policy rather than following through on the populist impulses he voiced on the campaign trail. The result is that fairly banal aspects of the business world have gotten enmeshed in the political process.

And while the results thus far seem mutually beneficial to the powers that be in both corporate America and Washington, it’s an incredibly unstable dynamic that could have unpredictable results when circumstances change. Democrats, understandably, are profoundly annoyed by big businesses’ decision to throw in so heavily on behalf of the Trump administration — radicalizing party leaders’ attitudes at precisely a time when they are facing heavy grassroots pressure to move to the left.

What’s actually going on with Apple

As Jordan Weissman writes at Slate, one of the particularly odd aspects of conservatives attributing Apple’s capital expenditure and job creation plans to the GOP tax bill is that’s not even what the Apple press release said.

Via @CNBC: “.@Apple said on Wednesday it will invest $350 billion in the U.S. economy over the next 5 years, touting the creation of 20,000 new jobs & a new campus thanks, in part, to the prospect of #taxreform.” https://t.co/m9dDZxD9H1

— Dean Heller (@SenDeanHeller) January 17, 2018

The release mentioned the tax bill specifically only when it said that thanks to a large tax cut that Apple is getting, it is about to pay a ton of taxes to Uncle Sam. That sounds a bit paradoxical, but here’s how it works. Apple, like a lot of big American multinational companies, engages in various accounting shenanigans to attribute as much of its worldwide profits as possible to subsidiaries located in low-tax jurisdictions — in Apple’s case, primarily Ireland.

The result is that a lot of money has piled up on the books of Apple Ireland, which is what people mean when they say Apple has billions in “overseas cash.” The funds actually aren’t physically located overseas (whatever that would mean in the context of a modern financial system) at all. They also mostly aren’t cash.

Instead, a bunch of bonds (some issued by the government, others by corporations) are legally owned by Apple Ireland. The same significance of their Irish legal status is that they can’t be paid out to shareholders as bonds or dividends. To pay out the cash, the money would first have to be “repatriated” to Apple proper and taxed at a 35 percent rate.

The tax law changes this in two relevant ways. First, it delivers a big cut in the corporate tax rate that will be levied on Apple going forward. Second, it requires companies with big overseas holdings to “deem” their offshore money repatriated and pay a 15 percent tax on it.

That’s great news for Apple shareholders. Years’ worth of tax avoidance strategies are being rewarded with an enormous discount — Apple will pay 15 percent rather than the 35 percent it previously owed — but with the caveat that Apple actually has to pay the money. That’s what Apple’s press release said about the tax bill: Thanks to its passage, Apple is going to pay a huge one-time discount tax charge and obtain a big stack of cash that can be paid out as dividends and buybacks.

It then tacked on a vague estimate of its preexisting capital expenditure plans, which Republican politicians ran around the country touting.

This kind of thing keeps happening

An earlier round of this came in late December, when AT&T announced it was paying out a $1,000 holiday bonus to its employees and attributed the decision to the GOP tax bill.

AT&T, like other telecommunications companies, has received some significant regulatory favors from the Trump administration in the form of new rules rescinding net neutrality regulation and allowing internet service providers to sell users’ web browsing data. They’re also struggling to gain regulatory approval for a proposed merger with Time Warner. Their framing of the bonus as a tax bill payoff was immediately hailed by GOP politicians, and they were swiftly followed by Comcast and two major banks.

Now, if you stop to think about it for a moment, it’s pretty clear that Donald Trump did not invent the practice of the corporate holiday bonus in December 2017. Indeed, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, about a quarter of private sector workers got a “holiday,” “year-end,” or “cash profit-sharing” bonus back in 2016:

It will take months for the data to become available to assess whether more bonuses were actually paid in 2017 than in 2016. And even if they were, there’d be no particular reason to think bonuses were paid because of the tax law. But the political upside to companies in regulated industries saying that whatever bonuses they are paying for whatever reason were due to the tax law is pretty clear.

By contrast, back in March 2016, when Comcast agreed to an across-the-board 2 to 3 percent pay raise with 10 months of retroactive back pay, it didn’t see any particular political upside in showering the Obama administration with praise.

The case for the tax bill has nothing to do with bonuses

The hurly-burly of partisan politics aside, obviously if your intended policy goal was to give people $1,000 bonus checks, then passing a complicated, expensive corporate tax cut would be a strange way to do it.

Back in 2008, House Democrats and then-President George W. Bush agreed on a plan to have the IRS simply mail “refund” checks to taxpayers as a form of economic stimulus. Paul Ryan, Mitch McConnell, and the Trump administration could have done something similar if they wanted to.

They didn’t, because the theory of the Republican tax plan is completely different, namely that cutting corporate tax rates will incentivize more business investment in capital goods, thus spurring higher productivity, more economic growth, and higher wages over the long run. Something less like the short-term bonuses that Comcast and AT&T attributed to the tax bill and more like the multi-year capital investment scheme that Republicans claimed Apple had attributed to the tax bill.

But while it’s certainly possible that theory will pan out, Apple, which has been investing at roughly that pace for years, certainly doesn’t prove the case. Both politicians and the media are impatient, but the sad truth is it will take a long time for us to have any sense of what the long-term impact of the new tax system is.

The not-so-damning truth: the economy is doing well

The problem for Democrats looking to shut down talk that the Trump tax cuts deserve credit for bonuses and pay increases isn’t so much that Trump is right about this. It’s that the actual truth also reflects well on Trump — the economy is in good shape overall.

Trump, of course, exaggerates this in his own rhetoric — he exaggerates everything. But it’s fundamentally true. After years of being very high, the unemployment rate was pretty low when Trump took over a year ago, and it’s only gotten lower since then. A full employment economy means that good things happen for workers. Companies looking to expand production find that they either need to raise pay to attract experienced workers or they have to be open to hiring nontraditional candidates like ex-convicts transitioning back into the workforce.

Consumer confidence numbers are reaching their highest levels of the 21st century as families feel more secure in their situations. And the stock market is doing extremely well, providing a very solid extra boost to affluent families.

Bloomberg consumer comfort index has risen to a new 17-year high. The data suggest a rebound in the Michigan index in tomorrow's report after a dip last month pic.twitter.com/bfq0KiggAC

— Jim O'Sullivan (@osullivanEcon) January 18, 2018

Now, of course, Trump is not personally responsible for any of this. The trends in 2017 economic data are broadly similar to what we saw in 2016 and 2015 and in several previous years as well. After falling into a very big hole in 2008 and 2009, the labor market has been steadily strengthening for years. For the first several years’ worth of recovery, that took the form of relatively rapid job creation paired with very weak wage growth due to the large stock of unemployed workers.

Over time, job creation started to slow — fewer new positions were added in 2017 than in 2016, and fewer in 2016 than in 2015. But wage growth improved as the country started to run out of unemployed people.

But to give Trump his due, back during the election, Democrats were hardly saying that electing Trump would simply allow the Obama recovery to continue unimpeded. They warned that he was dangerous and unfit for office, and would likely crash the stock market and tank the economy. So far, nothing bad has happened. The economy has remained in Janet Yellen’s capable hands, and Trump’s selection to replace her next year, current Fed Board of Governors member Jerome Powell, is well-qualified and well-regarded. There’s no particular reason to expect any trouble.

Corporate America risks reaping the whirlwind

All that said, Trump is strikingly unpopular — less popular at this point in his term than Harry Truman, Dwight Eisenhower, John F. Kennedy, Lyndon Johnson, Richard Nixon, Gerald Ford, Jimmy Carter, Ronald Reagan, George H.W. Bush, Bill Clinton, George W. Bush, or Bill Clinton. Before Truman, of course, there was no public opinion polling, so we don’t know what people thought.

Trump is starting his second year with the lowest approval rating of any modern president. Under those circumstances, it’s not exactly obvious that it’s savvy politics for corporate America to go all-in on partisan politics in an unprecedented way.

Companies could choose to lobby quietly for Republican policies they like without overtly entering the fray in this way — executives loved Bush’s tax cuts too but didn’t spend the mid-aughts sending out an endless stream of press releases crediting the president with every new hire and every raise.

By engaging in this way, they are perhaps marginally increasing the likelihood of receiving favorable treatment from the White House. But they are also spurring the ongoing radicalization of Democratic Party elites. Under both Obama and Clinton, Democrats saw themselves as essentially performing a balancing act between a range of legitimate interests — including big business.

At the New Hampshire primary election in 2008, Obama delivered his famous “Yes, We Can” speech and explained his vision this way: “We can bring doctors and patients, workers and businesses, Democrats and Republicans together, and we can tell the drug and insurance industry that, while they get a seat at the table, they don’t get to buy every chair, not this time, not now.”

But that’s starting to change. Late last year, a Democratic senator who told me he thinks his caucus is getting pulled too far to the left also casually mentioned that a government takeover of the entire broadband and cable industry might be a good idea. And the Democrats who actually think of themselves as left-wing are thinking bigger than that.

A business-friendly attitude from Democrats was already under pressure from Bernie Sanders and his wing of the party. But corporate America’s willingness to delve head first into partisan politics on the Republican side is even changing the thinking of Democrats who never thrilled to Sanders’s call.

via Vox - All

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