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insidethegiftbasket · 3 years

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AL WILD CARD GAME: YANKEES AT RED SOX

Tuesday, October 5th, 2021, at 8:08pm

Broadcasts:

ESPN: Matt Vasgersian, Alex Rodriguez, Buster Olney, and Marly Rivera

ESPN2: Statcast Broadcast: Jason Benetti, Mike Petriello, and Eduardo Perez

Red Sox Pitching

Nathan Eovaldi will get the ball for the Red Sox to start the game out, and while he has come back to earth a bit from his insane start of the season (specifically with the long ball), Eovaldi is still a dang good pitcher.

He led the AL in games started, led the AL in FIP, and led the majors in BB/9.

His April/May were unsustainably good, specifically the one home run he allowed over eleven starts, but he’s done an excellent job of limiting walks and throwing strikes. He averaged 16.1 pitches per inning this season, and batters were only ahead in the count ~21% of the time this year. Eovaldi is a flamethrower -- he throws his four seam fastball roughly 42% of the time and it sits at 96mph -- doesn’t have a lot of spin (29th percentile) or vertical movement (10% less drop than average) but it does have 46% more horizontal break (12.2 inches of horizontal movement) to the four seam. He also mixes in a slider vs righties (13.7% of pitches thrown and has average movement) and a curve vs lefties (18.8% of pitches thrown and also has average movement.) Neither pitch gets hit a lot but when the slider does get hit it’s usually for extra bases. He’ll also mix in cutters and splitters -- the splitter is an out pitch and gets a good amount of strikeouts, the cutter is a bad pitch that should get hit hard.

That is his pitch chart from his most recent start against the Yankees.

And the chart of when he’s throwing his pitches -- now it’s a good thing for him that he’s getting ahead in the count, because you can see that when he is behind, he’s essentially only throwing fastballs. When batters ARE ahead in the count, they’re slashing .280/.414/.527 against him, which is actually well below MLB league average. He also really struggles the third time through the order:

So I would assume that Eovaldi goes 4, maybe 5 innings before being pulled for the bullpen.

Nathan also has been significantly worse vs right handed hitters than vs lefties:

And importantly, has already faced the Yankees six times this season: going 2-2 with a 3.71 ERA in 34 innings -- giving up 38 hits, five home runs, four walks, and striking out 34 batters. That’s a .279/.310/.434 slashline for the Bombers.

Now, when the Red Sox do end up going to the bullpen, they’ll have a lot of right handed relief options to go to: Garrett Richards, Garret Whitlock, Hirokazu Sawamura, Adam Ottavino, and Matt Barnes. The Sox ended the season with the 13th best bullpen ERA, but the 23rd best bullpen WHIP -- so they’ll let guys on base.

Garret Richards was legitimately bad as a starting pitcher this year, but a move to the bullpen may have revitalized his career:

He was a guy with two decent pitches -- a four seam fastball and a slider, and by moving to the bullpen he’s been able to increase his fastball velocity and not have to worry about showing other pitches. He still has the 12-6 curve he can pullout in emergencies, but he’s not having to throw a near eephus pitch a couple times an inning just to give guys a different look. Garrett Whitlock is in an interesting situation -- he was one of the best stories in baseball this summer and was looking like one of the best relievers in the AL…until he wasn’t. He started to get hit around a bit in May, and then in September started to really struggle, but its hard to know how much of it is him, and how much of it was his injury. He went on the IL on September 21st with a pectoral strain, but he was activated before the final game of the season for the Red Sox, so it’ll be interesting to see if Cora throws him into the fire with no rehab appearances on Tuesday.

Old friend Adam Ottavino was doing well for the Red Sox this season (if you ignored the lefty/righty splits for the first half of the season) until this September, where in his last 13 appearances he’s given up a 1.152 OPS against and a 7.36 ERA. So yeah, typical Otto! Lastly, Matt Barnes also had a dominating first half of the season before falling off a cliff after the trade deadline, and has a 6.48 ERA since the All Star Break.

Red Sox Lineup

The good for Boston- this offense is really, really good from top to bottom. The bad for Boston -- JD Martinez sprained his ankle running to the outfield during the last game of the season and Alex Cora said he’s questionable for the Wild Card game. They can just play both Schwarber and Dalbec if that’s the case, but if he does miss the game it would be a huge loss. The other bad news for Boston -- they’re literally the worst team in baseball at fielding. Boston’s defensive efficiency was at .659, meaning that roughly 66% of balls put into play ended up being outs. The next worst team were the Angels at .680, and the Red Sox committed more errors than anyone other than the Marlins. According to Statcast’s Outs Above Average, other than Enrique Hernandez in CF, every Red Sox player was either neutral or bad defensively this season. They have some good arms, especially Hunter Renfroe, but this is a bad defensive team that the Yankees should hopefully take advantage of (Devers and Bogaerts especially are beyond awful.) That said, as bad as Bogaerts and Devers are defensively, they more than make up for that offensively:

Devers in particular has become one of the game’s best hitters, and might be the best hitting third baseman in the AL.

And Bogaerts is no slouch either, putting up a monster year of his own at shortstop.

This is a team that also hit Cole hard, and if JD Martinez is able to play, then I’d expect them to start Schwarber at 1b and then use Dalbec as a pinch hitting option late as a counter to either Luetge or Wandy or Chapman. I’d also expect them to call up Jarren Duran, one of the fastest players in baseball, to use as a pinch runner late if they need to.

Fenway Park

It’s a major hitter’s park -- its currently the second most favorable hitter’s park (behind Coors Field) over the past three seasons, and that’s with it being a below average park for homers. Expect lots of doubles and triples and singles here due to the wonky dimensions and fences. It’s also the #1 left handed hitter’s park.

Yankees Offensive Keys to Success

Make Eovaldi work and get behind in the count, letting them tee off on his fastballs

The lefties have to do work -- whether thats Gardy or Rizzo or Gallo or Wade or Odor or Velazquez, a couple guys from that group have to punish the purely right handed bullpen of the Red Sox.

When the Red Sox let our guys get on base, the team has to take advantage of it -- whether its through stealing bases or productive outs or just not grounding into a double play right away.

Someone other than Judge and Stanton needs to carry some of the load offensively and get a big hit

Yankees Defensive Keys to Success

Cole needs to get through the first inning -- over the course of the season he allowed a .839 OPS against and a 4.80 ERA against in the first inning, and he allowed almost a third of his home runs in the first inning. Get past that first challenge by Devers and he should be good.

Don’t be afraid of giving up the long ball -- it’s better to attack this Boston team and give up some damage then nibble around them and have the big hits count for more than one run. They’re going to get theirs, it just comes down to whether its a couple solo shots or a couple three run bombs.

Don’t worry about the steal -- other than Duran (who’s in the 96th percentile for sprint speed) this is a really slow team that stole the second least amount of bases in baseball. If someone gets on, don’t be overly worried about the runner and get distracted, just focus on getting your outs.

Please catch your pop ups.

Prediction Time

I’m going to say Yankees win this 5-3, mostly because I trust the Yankees bullpen more than Boston’s at this point. If the Red Sox bullpen was clicking like it was in April and May I’d feel differently, but especially in a Wild Card game where starters rarely go more than five innings, it’s just a lot to ask of this Boston bullpen to be able to give good length.

#Yankees #Red Sox #New York Yankees #Boston Red Sox #Fuck the Red Sox #MLB Playoffs #MLB Wild Card #MLB Postseason #David Ortiz Did Steroids #He Is Still Getting to the Bottom of It

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freenewstoday · 3 years

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New Post has been published on https://www.freenews.today/2021/04/18/is-the-new-york-yankees-rough-weekend-an-omen-of-things-to-come/

Is the New York Yankees' rough weekend an omen of things to come?

It was a disastrous weekend at Yankee Stadium for the men in pinstripes.

In a boo-filled 8-2 loss on Friday to the Tampa Bay Rays, fans littered the field with baseballs and other objects in the eighth inning, creating a short delay. On Saturday, the New York Yankees couldn’t solve Tyler Glasnow, and the Rays won 6-3. On Sunday, the fans even jeered Gerrit Cole when he walked off the mound after giving up a go-ahead double in the seventh inning to a struggling Yoshi Tsutsugo; the Rays won 4-2, and the Yankees left the field to another chorus of boos, rather than “New York, New York.”

First, give credit to Tampa Bay. The Rays are now 5-1 against the Yankees in 2021, after going 8-2 against them last season, plus a victory in the American League Division Series. Including that series, the Rays have now won seven series in a row against the Yankees, going back to their final showdown of 2019.

The Yankees’ current problems go beyond the Rays just having their number, however. The Yankees own the worst record in the American League at 5-10, which is the most games into a season they’ve had the league’s worst record since starting 9-17 in 1991. While the general rule in baseball is not to overreact to the first few weeks of the season — as a reminder, the last time the Yankees started 5-10 was in 1997, and they ended up finishing 96-66 and making the playoffs — you can look for patterns. It has to be concerning that the Yankees have struggled in the rotation, on defense and at the plate.

–The rotation woes have been documented. The starters have a 4.74 ERA; take out Cole and it balloons to 6.39. Mind you, Cole has started four of the team’s 15 games or 27%. The ratio will drop to about 20% by season’s end, assuming he starts 33 of 162.

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–The current up-the-middle alignment of catcher Gary Sanchez, middle infielders Gleyber Torres and Rougned Odor and center fielder Aaron Hicks does not feel like a championship-level defense. The Yankees can work around that a little bit when Kyle Higashioka catches and eventually when DJ LeMahieu goes back to second base after Luke Voit returns.

–The big surprise is an offense hitting just .210/.296/.346. It’s the lowest batting average for the Yankees through 15 games since 1968 and the lowest OPS through 15 games since 1973. Power is supposed to be the team’s strength, but their opponents have more home runs (21 to 16) and more doubles (22 to 19).

The slow start prompted an apparent dressing down from manager Aaron Boone following Friday’s loss. Asked about it after the game, Boone said, “That’s for in there.”

But outfielder Clint Frazier said, “He’s so chill that when he does address us, everyone should listen.”

Frazier said they would come out ready on Saturday; instead, the Yankees have now run their losing streak to five in a row.

“I’m frustrated, personally frustrated,” said LeMahieu, the 2020 AL batting champ who is hitting .288 with one home run. “No one’s going to feel sorry for us. No one’s going to throw softer or throw easier for us. We’ve got to find it within ourselves to continue to get better and play the way we’re capable of.”

While LeMahieu concluded the team was “tight and pressing,” Cole seemed to take things a little more in stride, saying, “You play this game long enough, you’re going to go through some crap. Gotta put your boots on and wade through the mud.”

Indeed, the 1997 Yankees are case in point. After that 5-10 start, they won eight of their next 10 to climb back over .500 before the end of April. Going back to 1996, here are the five best records from teams that started 5-10 or worse, courtesy of ESPN Stats & Information:

2001 A’s: 102-60 (started 4-11)

2002 Angels: 99-63 (started 5-10)

2000 Giants: 97-65 (started 4-11)

2018 A’s: 97-65 (started 5-10)

1997 Yankees: 96-66 (started 5-10)

On the other hand … a lot more bad teams start 5-10, as you would expect. I looked at all teams that started exactly 5-10 from 1996 through 2019, with 62 teams all told. Their final average record was 73-89. Besides the three such teams listed above, only four others would win 90 games: the 2013 Indians (92-70) and Rays (92-71), the 2011 Red Sox (90-72) and the 2009 Rockies (92-70).

This Yankees team reminds me a little bit of the 2019 Boston Red Sox. Coming off a World Series title, that Red Sox squad got off to a sluggish start, 5-10 through 15 games and 9-15 through 24. In a sense, Boston never recovered from the slow start, falling seven games out of first place at the end of April and never getting closer than three games out of first the rest of the way, before finishing 84-78.

The Yankees are tied with the Rangers for the lowest OPS in the majors at .642. I’m confident the Yankees will not be in that position at season’s end. Giancarlo Stanton, Frazier, Torres and Hicks are all hitting under .200. Getting Voit, the 2020 major league home run lead back, will help.

Torres is the hard one to figure out, after he hit 38 home runs in 2019 at age 22 and looked like a future star. He actually has improved his chase rate in both 2020 (from 31.3% to 20.1%) and again in 2021 (to 13.9%), and usually, better plate discipline leads to better numbers; instead, he is sitting there with zero home runs and one RBI. Maybe a more aggressive approach — he swung at the first pitch more often in 2019 — works better for him.

Anyway, it’s 15 games into a very long season. Yankees fans are calling for Boone to be fired. Columnists are joking that Jay Bruce shouldn’t have retired because he might have hit cleanup this week if Boone looked to shake things up. Twitter is filled with comments like, “The Yankees are 5-10, but they seem worse” and “I’ve been waiting literally my entire life for one bad Yankees season.”

Put this in your back pocket: The last time the Yankees had a losing season was 1992.

(And in mentioning that, it’s now a lock the Yankees win 12 of 14 and move into first place on May 4. Thank me later, Yankees fans.)

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#MLB #New York Yankees

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itsfreesportstips-blog · 6 years

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Rougned Odor's Rise, Khris Davis's Power Lead This Week's Baseball Preview

Forget about the fact that it’s August 6 and all the AL divisions are essentially spoken for, with at least one of the league’s wild card spots locked up, as well. Take a look at what’s happening in the National League. No division leader has a cushion greater than 1.5 games. Two teams are within 2.5 games of the second wild card spot, while three more are within five games. You have to go back to the NL of 2010 to find the last time either league was as up for grabs in all three divisions and the wild card this late in the season. Don’t worry about the lack of intrigue in the AL. The NL has got enough for both leagues. Hitters to Watch This Week Khris Davis, A’s Davis is on an absolute tear over the last two weeks, hitting .302/.371/.830 with nine homers and 21 RBI in 62 plate appearances. The A’s have overtaken the Mariners for the second wild card spot in the AL, leading their division mates by 2.5 games. They’re doing it behind one of the league’s best offenses, and Davis is right at the center of it all. When he was on the DL at the end of May, the team went 3-6 and averaged 1.67 runs per game. With him hitting cleanup, they’re scoring 5.02 runs per game. Davis is hitting .253/.329/.542 with 30 homers and 85 RBI on the season. Rougned Odor, Rangers Odor entered the second half hitting .239/.319/.378. He’s now hitting .272/.352/.472 just three weeks after the All-Star Break. Odor has been one of the hottest hitters in baseball in the second half, going 24-for-60 with seven homers, five doubles and 16 RBI. In three short weeks, he went from having a terrible season to a good one, based on what the back of his baseball card now looks like. It’s an incredible run, and illustrates just how quickly a player can turn a season around, even this deep into the year. Christian Yelich, Brewers Yelich has hit has way into MVP contention, slashing .326/.387/.542 with 17 homers, 25 doubles and 59 RBI this season. He had a 15-game hitting streak broken last week, but has hits in all four games since then. Over his last 20 games, he’s 40-for-84 with six homers, 11 doubles, two triples and 17 RBI. Bryce Harper, Nationals Harper has five multi-hit games in his last six contests, going 10-for-26 with a homer, five doubles, six RBI and four walks against one strikeout in that span. The miniature hot streak has raised his batting average 11 points, OBP nine points, and slugging percentage 16 points. The Nationals are still a full arm’s length behind the Phillies and Braves in the NL East, and they’ll need Harper to be this good the rest of the season if they are going to salvage what has been a monumental disappointment. Nelson Cruz, Mariners Cruz has four homers in his last five games, giving him 29 on the season. This will be his fifth straight year with at least 30 homers, and he has a good chance to make it five straight with at least 39. He’d be the 11th player with five such consecutive seasons, joining Barry Bonds, Adam Dunn, Ken Griffey Jr., Ralph Kiner, Mark McGwire, Rafael Pameiro, Alex Rodriguez, Babe Ruth, Duke Snider and Sammy Sosa. Pitchers to Watch This Week Zack Greinke, Diamondbacks Greinke is putting together a fine season that is seemingly flying under the radar. The 34-year-old owns a 2.96 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and 148 strikeouts in 142 2/3 innings, easily his best year since joining the Diamondbacks in 2016. He has been lights-out in his last four turns, pitching to a 1.26 ERA and 0.63 WHIP with 31 strikeouts against two walks in 28 2/3 innings. He takes the ball once this week, starting Tuesday in the middle of a huge three-game series with the Phillies. Rick Porcello, Red Sox Porcello made one of the best starts of his career his last time out, tossing a one-hit complete game against the Yankees. After allowing a solo homer to Miguel Andujar in the third inning, Porcello retired 21 straight batters in a dominant effort. He struck out nine and didn’t walk any, shutting down one of the best lineups in baseball to kick off a series that may have locked up the AL East for the Red Sox. His next start is scheduled for Thursday in Toronto. Jon Gray, Rockies Gray shut down the Brewers on Sunday, allowing one run on four hits in eight innings, striking out eight and walking two. It was the fifth time in his last six starts that he completed at least seven innings while allowing two runs or fewer. After a dreadful first 10 weeks of the season, Gray has turned everything around since the middle of June. In his last six starts, he has a 2.43 ERA, 0.93 WHIP and 44 strikeouts in 40 2/3 innings. This is the Gray the Rockies need if they are going to get into the postseason for the second straight year. He’ll make one start this week sometime during the Rockies weekend series with the Dodgers. Carlos Carrasco, Indians There has been some talk of the Indians moving Carrasco to the bullpen in the postseason, going with a three-man rotation of Corey Kluber, Trevor Bauer and Mike Clevinger. Carrasco, however, is making a strong case to stay in the rotation. Since coming off the DL on July 6, he has a 1.99 ERA, 1.01 WHIP and 42 strikeouts against four walks in 31 2/3 innings. He dominated the Twins in his last start, throwing 7 1/3 scoreless innings, allowing four hits while striking out 10 and walking none. He’s scheduled to take the ball twice this week, facing the Twins on Tuesday and White Sox on Sunday. Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers Kershaw is starting to hit his stride, notching six straight quality starts and shutting down the mighty Milwaukee and Atlanta lineups in his last three starts. He’s one of the few players who could single-handedly turn his team into the favorite for the pennant, but with the Dodgers and Diamondbacks tied atop the NL West, a third straight trip to the NLCS is too far into the future for the Dodgers to think about just yet. Kershaw will get one start this week, facing another strong offense in Oakland on Wednesday. Matchups to Watch This Week Phillies at Diamondbacks, Monday through Wednesday No first-place team in the NL has a lead larger than 1.5 games over its nearest competitor, which almost certainly means were getting at least one great race in the senior circuit over the next two months. Two of those teams, the Phillies and Diamondbacks, get together for a three-game set in Phoenix to start the week. Not only are these games huge in terms of these two holding onto their leads in the NL East and NL West, respectively, but they could also factor into the wild card race, should one or both of these teams fall out of first. The Phillies enter the series at 63-48, two games ahead of the Diamondbacks in the overall standings. The Phillies will send Jake Arrieta, Nick Pivetta and Vince Velasquez to the mound, while the Diamondbacks counter with Zack Godley, Zack Greinke and Patrick Corbin. Dodgers at A’s, Tuesday and Wednesday These two teams get together for a brief, two-game series in Oakland to start their respective weeks. The Dodgers are tied with the Diamondbacks in first in the NL West, while the A’s have overtaken the Mariners for the second wild card in the AL, 2.5 games in front of their division rivals. The A’s are one of the hottest teams in baseball, having gone 12-4 since the All-Star break, and 19-6 in their last 25 games. At 67-46 overall, they have the fourth best record in baseball, better than any team in the NL. Rich Hill and Clayton Kershaw will start the two games for the Dodgers, while the A’s will go with Sean Manaea and Brett Anderson. Brewers at Braves, Friday through Sunday The Brewers have the second-best record in the NL, but all it gets them, for the time being, is a wild card spot. Having said that, they’re just one game behind the Cubs in the Central, and have eight games remaining with the division leader, giving them more than enough opportunity to claim the NL Central crown for the first time since 2011 and second time ever. The Braves, meanwhile, start this week 1.5 games behind the Phillies in the NL East and in control of the senior circuit’s second wild card spot. The Brewers took three of four from the Braves in Milwaukee just before the All-Star break, and this will be the last time these teams get together in the regular season. Pitching matchups aren’t yet locked in since this is a weekend series, but the Brewers are on track to start Freddy Peralta on Friday, Wade Miley on Saturday and Chase Anderson on Sunday. If the Braves remain on schedule, they’ll go with Kevin Gausman, Julio Teheran and Sean Newcomb. Read the full article

#MLB

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junker-town · 7 years

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Which of the wild card teams in the American League could actually win the World Series?

All of them, technically. But we have to rank all of the hilarious teams jostling for the second wild card.

There have been 20 different teams to play in a Wild Card Game in the era of the second wild card. One of them has won the World Series. Nineteen of them have not. While it’s always fair to be scared of the monster at the end of this book, these teams are usually not the ones that win the World Series.

Here’s what’s happened in the past:

10 teams didn’t advance past the Wild Card Game, by definition

5 teams lost in the Division Series

3 teams lost in the Championship Series

1 team lost in the World Series

1 team won the whole danged thing

That seems like a perfectly random distribution that supports this assertion: A wild card team probably won’t win the World Series this year. I mean, if both the Dodgers and Astros can’t win it, we already knew that, but there’s more evidence to consider.

So let’s figure out which of these second wild cards in the American League is going to win the World Series.

The second wild card is a mess in the AL. The Rays are a game under .500 and they’ve lost 7 out of their last 10. They’re right in it. The Orioles’ team ERA+ is 88, one point worse than the 2009 team that lost 98 games. They’re right in it. The Twins have a Pythagorean record of 53-64, which doesn’t just suggest they’re mediocre, but that they’re actively bad. They’re right in it.

However, I would like to offer a counterargument of “but it would be really funny if one of these teams beat the Dodgers, Cubs, or Nationals.” That should be enough to explore the idea. So which one of them could do it?

The first order of business is to wave the Yankees through. They have the lineup. The postseason makes any issues of rotation depth less of an issue. And jeepers, do they have the bullpen, assuming Aroldis Chapman is right. It would be merely a mild surprise if they were to win the whole thing.

The second order of business is to come up for some sort of standard for these teams. I’m going to rely less on gut feelings (“The Royals have experience stabbing hearts out and eating them on live television”) and at least do some cursory analysis. A proper second wild card team with championship hopes should fair well in a few categories. We’ll evaluate them all based on these categories.

To the rankings!

8. Toronto Blue Jays

Do they have at least one ace they can work the hell out of?

Yeah, I can see Marcus Stroman going bananas for a few starts. J.A. Happ gives them a worthy no. 2, as well. Not sure if they can trust Marco Estrada and friends after that, but they have a guy who could get hot.

How many relievers does it take until they get to an iffy one?

At least four.

Do they have a super-reliever that can be used for more than one inning?

Yes. Roberto Osuna’s ERA is unfair. Don’t look at it. He’s still an elite reliever.

Can you picture their offense scoring several times off Max Scherzer or Clayton Kershaw in an elimination game?

Sure. When you plop down a lineup of Donaldson, Bautista, Encarnacion, and Tulowitzki, you can ...

[squints]

Damn. Wha’ happened? Donaldson is hot again, and apparently Justin Smoak is Mark Teixeira in his prime, but other than that, the lineup is kind of a soggy mess.

Mostly, though, they’re last because they’re 3.5 games out of the second wild card, and that’s a steep hill to climb against this many teams.

Would it be funny if this team beat the Dodgers, who will apparently finish with 163 wins?

Yes.

7. Minnesota Twins

Do they have at least one ace they can work the hell out of?

Ervin Santana has shut me up, and I apologize for making fun of the Twins for signing him. He’s a fantastic pitcher, and I can’t express enough regret. To Ervin, to his family, to Twins fans ... I made a terrible mistake.

But is he someone the Twins can ride like Corey Kluber? Nah.

Jose Berrios, though. Sweet Jose Berrios. Even if he’s an erratic rookie, I’ll still take my chances with him. As long as he has a veteran behind him and Santana.

Photo by Stacy Revere/Getty Images

Allllll abooooard the Twins wagon!

How many relievers does it take until they get to an iffy one?

Not to be rude, but ... zero? They traded Brandon Kintzler, and Twins fans were left without anyone who can complete the sentence, “Alright, __________ is in the game. Shutdown time.”

Do they have a super-reliever that can be used for more than one inning?

No.

Can you picture their offense scoring several times off Max Scherzer or Clayton Kershaw in an elimination game?

My guess is that Miguel Sano and Eddie Rosario are exactly the kind of hitters who could be handled by the elite starters and relievers they would see in the postseason. Baseball is weird, sure, but sometimes it’s what you expect. So I’ll go no.

Would it be funny if this team beat the Dodgers, who will apparently finish with 163 wins?

Yes.

6. Baltimore Orioles

Do they have at least one ace they can work the hell out of?

No. The Orioles’ starting pitching is so incredibly bad. I keep staring and staring and staring, and Wade Miley and Ubaldo Jimenez are still in the rotation. They’ve combined for 44 starts, and only 12 of them have been quality starts. That’s appalling. That means that in 32 of those 44 starts, they either couldn’t finish six innings, or they allowed four runs or more. That’s 40 percent of the rotation! How is this team within 10 games of a postseason berth?

Ahem, sorry, no. The answer to the question posed above is no. I think Jeremy Hellickson is their ace, and he’s not likely to Bumgarner the place up in October.

How many relievers does it take until they get to an iffy one?

Depending on what you think about Darren O’Day, they can go three or four team and make a team feel hopeless if they have a lead after six. Which answers that rhetorical question up there about how this team is contending.

Do they have a super-reliever that can be used for more than one inning?

Yes. Zach Britton’s arm should be rested, and he should just be getting sharp as the postseason rolls around.

Can you picture their offense scoring several times off Max Scherzer or Clayton Kershaw in an elimination game?

Yes. They can dinger.

Would it be funny if this team beat the Dodgers, who will apparently finish with 163 wins?

Yes.

While I could see this rotation getting the Orioles through a series — maybe two — because baseball is funny like that, I would have to think that at some point, they would get out-dingered by the Yankees, Astros, Indians, Dodgers, et cetera before they made a miracle run.

5. Texas Rangers

Do they have at least one ace they can work the hell out of?

Yes. Cole Hamels isn’t the whirlwind he used to be, but he’s still a fine pitcher, someone the Rangers could feel comfortable starting on short rest in a Game 5 or Game 7.

After that, there’s Andrew Cashner, who has been just as effective preventing runs, but has a ghastly FIP to go with his ERA, and he’s suddenly striking out people like he’s Aaron Cook. Except I’m not sure if he’s the same kind of sabermetric nightmare that Cook was. He’s probably just lucky.

If only the Rangers had one more starter. But where were they going to find one of those at the deadline?

How many relievers does it take until they get to an iffy one?

Alex Claudio has the kind of peripherals that make me think of Sam Dyson, but I would never tell Rangers fans that. Matt Bush has been mostly fine since being removed from the closer’s role. Jose Leclerc is wild and hilarious, and I guess he can shut a team down, even though he’s a character from a Pynchon novel.

But I’m not going to call any of them shutdown relievers. So to answer the question: maximum of three, minimum of zero. It would be super rude of me to point out that Sam Dyson has a 2.13 ERA (3.21 FIP) since leaving, so I wouldn’t dream of it.

Do they have a super-reliever that can be used for more than one inning?

No.

Can you picture their offense scoring several times off Max Scherzer or Clayton Kershaw in an elimination game?

Kind of, but only because I’m pretty sure Rougned Odor is better than this.

Would it be funny if this team beat the Dodgers, who will apparently finish with 163 wins?

Yes.

4. Los Angeles Angels

Do they have at least one ace they can work the hell out of?

No. I suppose it’s at this point that I’ll sigh deeply, give up, and force myself to look at their current rotation. I’ve been avoiding this because I didn’t want to puncture the illusion. Let’s see ... okay, thought he was retired ... pretty sure that’s a lefty specialist ... can’t say that I’ve heard of this guy, but I can’t admit that as a national writer ... Tyler Skaggs, who is pretty good! ... and Roster Resource just ends after four, which is perfect.

To be fair, the Angels have been ravaged by injuries in the rotation more than almost any other team here, so they get credit just for making it interesting. They also get credit for Parker Bridwell pitching like a dynamo after they acquired from the Orioles (the team without any starting pitchers that we made fun of above) for a player to be named later or cash.

But ... no, they don’t have an ace of aces to rally behind.

How many relievers does it take until they get to an iffy one?

Three or four? Bud Norris is probably better than his ERA, but they traded David Hernandez at the deadline, so they aren’t exactly dominant from the sixth on.

Do they have a super-reliever that can be used for more than one inning?

I’m the world’s biggest Yusmeiro Petit fan, and the last time a wild card team did win the World Series, he threw six scoreless innings in one of the greatest relief appearances I’ve ever seen.

But, no. Probably not.

Can you picture their offense scoring several times off Max Scherzer or Clayton Kershaw in an elimination game?

Friend, I can picture Mike Trout doing a lot of things.

Would it be funny if this team beat the Dodgers, who will apparently finish with 163 wins?

Yes.

3. Kansas City Royals

Do they have at least one ace they can work the hell out of?

Danny Duffy is pretty close. I suppose we should have seen Jason Vargas turning into Jason Vargas, but it’s also possible his last seven starts are a blip. They don’t fare super poorly in this category, but I have concerns about their rotation depth.

How many relievers does it take until they get to an iffy one?

This is not the 2014 Royals bullpen. If you assume that Ryan Buchter and Brandon Maurer are better than they’ve been since they traded for them, they might go three or four deep.

Do they have a super-reliever that can be used for more than one inning?

Not exactly, but Joakim Soria’s super-low home run rate and low FIP give him a chance to surprise. Except maybe he’s hurt.

Can you picture their offense scoring several times off Max Scherzer or Clayton Kershaw in an elimination game?

Kind of. They’re built a little like the Twins, in that they have hitters who will crush mistakes (Moustakas, Perez), which could be a problem if they face pitchers who don’t make them.

Would it be funny if this team beat the Dodgers, who will apparently finish with 163 wins?

Yes.

2. Tampa Bay Rays

Do they have at least one ace they can work the hell out of?

Probably? In Chris Archer’s last two months, he’s thrown four quality starts. Wait, check that, he’s thrown four bare-minimum quality starts of exactly six innings pitched and three runs. Around them, he’s sandwiched six innings and four runs, or six innings and two runs, or 5⅓ innings and three runs, or ... it’s been an impressive run of functional starts, with quality starts mixed in.

But this is the team that makes me want a new category: Do they have enough depth in the rotation to avoid needing overworking an ace? And the answer is yes. If you believe in Jacob Faria (which you should), and if you believe Alex Cobb will come back strong (turf toe is no joke, but there’s no reason not to believe this)

How many relievers does it take until they get to an iffy one?

First, I think that Steve Cishek and Sergio Romo should get to stand on the mound at the same time, and that they should get to alternate pitches, just to mess with the hitters in a more dramatic, fun fashion.

The Rays were active at the deadline, and those two have been fine so far. They also have Alex Colome doing good things and a resurgent Tommy Hunter. Brad Boxberger is back, although it’s been a couple years since he was super effective. I’ll assume that one of Cishek and Romo is steady, which gives them three or four.

Do they have a super-reliever that can be used for more than one inning?

Colome is fine, but I think I had Andrew Miller in mind for this category. It turns out that none of these teams has Andrew Miller. Maybe they should get him, imo.

Can you picture their offense scoring several times off Max Scherzer or Clayton Kershaw in an elimination game?

Kind of. It’s not the most balanced lineup, but if you’re a believer in Logan Morrison or Corey Dickerson (581 OPS since July), you can make an argument that they can be scary. The team ranks third in the AL in adjusted OPS, so I’ll wave them through.

Would it be funny if this team beat the Dodgers, who will apparently finish with 163 wins?

Yes.

1. Seattle Mariners

Do they have at least one ace they can work the hell out of?

Assuming he’s not broken, yes. James Paxton is a talented fellow, and he could definitely put the team on his back.

How many relievers does it take until they get to an iffy one?

They can go pretty deep, especially if you’re a believer in Emilio Pagan. They have five solid relievers, and they mix and match lefty-righty pretty well, too.

Do they have a super-reliever that can be used for more than one inning?

Edwin Diaz isn’t the same cyclone that he was last year, but he’s plenty good, and I could see him in an extra-stress role pretty easily.

Can you picture their offense scoring several times off Max Scherzer or Clayton Kershaw in an elimination game?

Yes, but only because I’m pretty sure Kyle Seager is better than this, and also because I could see someone like Robinson Cano getting fiery hot for a month. They don’t need Ben Gamel and Mitch Haniger to resume hitting like they were for the first couple months (though that would be rad).

Would it be funny if this team beat the Dodgers, who will apparently finish with 163 wins?

Yes.

So give me the Mariners as the wild card team with the best chance to win the World Series. This is based on an empirical look at their roster and strengths.

[James Paxton swallows tub of uranium marked “DON’T SWALLOW: TUB OF URANIUM”]

The Mariners have been underperforming for a variety of reasons.

[Robinson Cano is arrested by Springfield police for unsolved murders in New York]

I don’t see a reason why they can’t be the team to stun the world.

[Mariner Moose eats entire 25-man roster]

So put me down for the Mariners as my Team to Watch™ in the 2017 Wild Card watch. I don’t see what could possibly go wrong for them.

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Authentic or not? Gio Gonzalez has a day to keep in mind - SweetSpot

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Authentic or not? Gio Gonzalez has a day to keep in mind - SweetSpot

It must have been Jose Fernandez out there on his twenty fifth birthday, making an attempt to shut out a no-hitter in opposition to Washington Nationals, possibly even pitching what could have been a astonishing Marlins group into to start with area.

In its place, Fernandez’s family and newborn daughter visited Marlins Park for the to start with time considering that his death. Teammates still left birthday needs on Twitter. Miami is nowhere in close proximity to a playoff location. And his fantastic close friend Gio Gonzalez was in the highlight, back again in the town the place he grew up and graduated large college from, getting a no-hitter into the base of the ninth. Gonzalez failed to get it — Dee Gordon led off the inning with a line-push single into centre field — but it was unforgettable evening for the veteran lefty.

“Tonight was a lot more of an psychological evening, a unique evening,” Gonzalez reported through the televised write-up-recreation job interview. “I received to see the Fernandez family and what a evening.”

Gonzalez, who attended Fernandez’s funeral final September, was at a comfortable 103 pitches getting into the ninth, but Gordon available at a one-one curveball that was just off the plate to split up the no-hitter. Pretty fantastic pitch for Gonzalez, bad final result. With a slim one- guide, Dusty Baker turned to the bullpen and Sean Doolittle closed it out, finding Giancarlo Stanton to strike into a double enjoy for the to start with two outs.

Gonzalez became the 3rd pitcher to get rid of a no-hitter in the ninth inning this time, signing up for Kyle Freeland and Mike Foltynewicz, although the Marlins’ Edinson Volquez has the a person no-hitter.

Anyone who does not luv viewing Standard Time Nats video games in ’17, no matter whether they score 23 or acquire one- w Gio’s in close proximity to no-no, just does not get it.

— Thomas Boswell (@ThomasBoswellWP) August one, 2017

Gonzalez is acquiring a quietly terrific time, improving to nine-five and lowering his Period to two.sixty six — the 3rd-most effective in the Countrywide League. He has extended relied on that significant sweeping curveball, and there is certainly very little in his peripherals that counsel he is doing anything distinct as his strikeout and wander costs are right at his career norms.

The two outlier quantities are his .245 BABIP, nicely beneath his career mark of .297, and an 85.one p.c strand price that is second between certified starters to Clayton Kershaw. So he is most likely been a minimal fortunate, but he is also been fantastic and he is slotted in easily as the team’s No. two or 3 starter in the postseason, based on the place Stephen Strasburg‘s well being sits after Oct rolls all around.

I was contemplating of this although viewing the ultimate innings of this recreation as nicely: No person considers Gonzalez a star, whilst he has produced two All-Star groups, but his career would be a terrific consequence for any of the potential customers traded on deadline day or earlier in the thirty day period.

He has 111 career wins and 25. WAR so considerably in his career. Which is a far better career than 99 p.c of important leaguers. This will be his eighth straight time of 27-additionally commences and his fourth of 4-additionally WAR, a reminder that for pitchers it is really normally basically about finding a way to continue to be healthful.

Baseball The us experienced a research that appeared at all potential customers traded in July from 2003 to 2012 and discovered that fewer than 20 p.c of them pan out — with a pretty low threshold of two seasons in the majors and a constructive career WAR. Definitely, even fewer reach the heights Gonzalez has obtained. Which is a reminder that A’s admirers or Rangers admirers must continue to be cautiously optimistic about the returns for Sonny Grey and Yu Darvish.

Most of us are unable to even strike .485 in sluggish-pitch softball. The Astros pounded the Rays — a unusual bad start off by Alex Cobb, who has largely been lights out of late — as Jose Altuve went two-for-4 to raise his time common to .368 although finishing July with a .485 common. The highest averages in a thirty day period of the enlargement era (considering that 1961), bare minimum seventy five at-bats:

Todd Helton, Rockies, Could 2000: .512

Ivan Rodriguez, Tigers, June 2004: .five hundred

George Brett, Royals, July 1980: .494

Rod Carew, Twins, June 1977: .486

Jose Altuve, Astros, July 2017: .485

Wade Boggs, Pink Sox, June 1987: .485

Meanwhile, Aaron Decide strike his MLB-primary thirty fourth household run and drew two walks as the Yankees defeat Michael Fulmer and the Tigers. MVP race update:

Altuve: .368/.430/.577, 15 HR, sixty one RBI, 74 operates, 6. WAR

Decide: .303/.429/.639, 34 HR, seventy five RBI, eighty three operates, five.two WAR

The WAR totals are getting into Monday. Decide strike .224/.350/.447 with six household operates in July, in section for the reason that his strikeout price rose from 29 p.c in Could and June to 38 p.c. His BABIP also regressed from in excess of .450 those people two months to .310. There is very little alarming in this article, just a young participant going by means of standard swings of productiveness, particularly a person with a large strikeout price.

1 knock on Decide was that he is hitting .206 in the ninth inning with a person household run and .234 in the eighth inning with two household operates. Initial of all, we are conversing about 86 plate appearances. A far better gauge of his late-recreation productiveness is “late and shut,” and Decide is hitting .271/.442/.492 in those people scenarios. Altuve, in fewer plate appearances, has been lethal, hitting .487/.565/.821 (46 PAs). Decide has been high-quality, but Altuve has elevated his recreation so considerably in those people clutch at-bats. One thing to continue to keep in brain as we evaluate the MVP race later in the time.

So this was awesome. As Adrian Beltre stepped up for his to start with at-bat, Felix Hernandez gave his close friend and previous teammate a hug of congratulations for Beltre’s 3,000th strike:

Authentic realize actual. 🐐 👑 pic.twitter.com/BgmEG7NsEl

— Texas Rangers (@Rangers) August one, 2017

Hernandez struggled early as the Rangers took a 4- guide immediately after two innings, but the Mariners rallied for a 6-4 victory as Robinson Cano drove in two operates in the ninth to climb in excess of .five hundred. David Phelps received 5 outs, all on strikeouts, and Edwin Diaz closed it out, firing a a hundred-mph fastball past Rougned Odor for his 20th help save. This recreation kicks off a stretch in which the Mariners will enjoy 21 of 28 video games on the street.

Who requirements to make a deal when you have Rafael Devers? The 20-calendar year-aged 3rd baseman went 4-for-4 for the Pink Sox. Pleasurable checklist in this article:

Rafael Devers is the 5th participant in Pink Sox record with a 4-strike recreation just before turning 21 (by using @EliasSports) pic.twitter.com/mxHfbql4Ia

— ESPN Stats & Data (@ESPNStatsInfo) August one, 2017

In other information of top rated potential customers/young players, Yoan Moncada experienced a awful collision with Willy Garcia and both equally players still left the recreation. Moncada is day-to-day with a knee contusion although Garcia will be re-evaluated Tuesday immediately after suffering a head contusion. Ultimately, the Mets introduced shortstop Amed Rosario will be identified as up and make his important league debut on Tuesday at Colorado.

Trade deadline wrap-up. I wrote about my winners and losers in this article although Bradford Doolittle breaks down the significant Yu Darvish trade for the Dodgers and Andrew Marchand claims finding Sonny Grey usually means the Yankees are the Yankees again.

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