#and i have seen some people call barry british before and i feel this mixture of amusement and confusion about it

[steakout-05]

he is not amused.....

[gastonlibrary]

2017 Oscar Nomination Predictions

Its Oscar season again! This year, the nominations will be announced at 8:15 a.m. EST on Tuesday, January 24th. Here is a sneak peak that the potential nominees from our resident Oscarologist Andrew Pierce!

Best Picture

Arrival

Fences

Hacksaw Ridge

Hell or High Water

Hidden Figures

La La Land

Lion

Manchester By the Sea

Moonlight

Other Possibilities – Nocturnal Animals, Florence Foster Jenkins, Deadpool, Loving, Sully, 20th Century Women, Captain Fantastic, I, Daniel Blake,

Commentary - Before we get in to the predictions, it’s probably best to explain how this whole nomination process works. During the nomination phase, the 6,500 or so members of the Academy vote for the category that corresponds to their branch. So costume designers pick the five nominees for Best Costume Design, the animation branch picks the five nominees for Best Animated Feature, etc. But all members are eligible to vote for Best Picture nominations across the various branches. Since 2011, the number of nominees can vary between 5 and 10 depending on the voting. The first two years there were nine, the last two years there were eight. There is a lot of math behind it, but trust the experts that say that it is nearly impossible to have just 5 or 10, it is almost always going to fall in the 6-9 range, with 8 or 9 seeming like the sweet spot. The voters rank their favorite films, and starting with first place votes, each film that hits the right number of votes gets nominated. Then it goes to second or third, and so on until a film gets the right number of votes. That means if you really want to get a film nominated for Best Picture, put it at number 1. In the second phase where a winner is picked, the preferential ballot favors a film that is well liked, and gets as many second and third place votes as first place votes. But for the nomination phase it is passion that counts. Confused yet? You’re not alone. That’s why there is simply no science to predicting the Oscars. It’s a mixture of precursor knowledge, knowledge of Academy history, and a whole lot of gut. I am picking nine films this year, because the voting has seemingly coalesced around these nine films. The BAFTA surge for Nocturnal Animals makes it a threat. Florence Foster Jenkins is set to actually do pretty well across the board, and the big surprise this year was Deadpool which managed a Producers Guild (PGA), Writers Guild (WGA), and an American Cinema Editors (ACE) Eddie nomination. So don’t discount that trio. At the top of the pack is the trio that has been there all season: La La Land, Manchester by the Sea, and Moonlight. Expect your Best Picture winner to come from that group. Arrival has shown tremendous strength across the guilds, critics, and BAFTA voters, as has Lion, whose first time director Garth Davis snagged an impressive Director’s Guild (DGA) nomination. If there were only five nominees, I think these would be the five. Beyond that it gets a bit tricky. Fences and Hidden Figures got SAG ensemble nominations, and have done well elsewhere. But neither are strong contenders for some of the other major awards like director. Still, I think they make the cut. Hell or High Water is the little indie that could this year, and despite some misses here and there, I think that the largely white, male Academy will make sure this gets in. Finally there is Hacksaw Ridge. Mel Gibson is still not off the hook with many in Hollywood, but they really respect this film. It will be interesting to see if they are willing to forgive the fallen, but talented star.

Best Director

Denis Villeneuve “Arrival”

Damien Chazelle “La La Land”

Kenneth Lonergan “Manchester By the Sea”

Barry Jenkins “Moonlight”

Tom Ford “Nocturnal Animals”

Other Possibilities – Garth Davis “Lion”, Martin Scorsese “Silence”, Denzel Washington “Fences”, David Mackenzie “Hell or High Water”, Theodore Melfi “Hidden Figures”, Mel Gibson “Hacksaw Ridge”, Stephen Frears “Florence Foster Jenkins”, Ken Loach “I, Daniel Blake”

Commentary – This is the branch that famously snubbed Ben Affleck for Argo and Ridley Scott for The Martian, and threw in some out of the box choices like Fernando Meirelles, Pedro Almodovar, David Lynch, Julian Schnabel, Benh Zeitlin, and Michael Haneke. So I’m always on the lookout for the surprise nominee. Last year it was Lenny Abrahamson for Room. The year before it was Bennett Miller for Foxcatcher, whose film didn’t even make the Best Picture cut. I think a similar thing will happen for Tom Ford this year. Nocturnal Animals is on the cusp of a Best Picture nomination. But it’s not a film people love; it’s a film people clearly respect, especially the craft of it. A similar fate just happened to it at BAFTA, where it landed in a lot of categories except the top one. It’s a long shot call, but when you have four easy slots, and one question mark with the Directors Branch, always go for the long shot. The other four are Lonergan, Jenkins, Chazelle and Villeneuve, who feel pretty safe. Davis could follow up his DGA nomination, Marty is a legend, Gibson (see Best Picture), and Mackenzie, Melfi, Washington, and Frears have potential Best Picture nominees on their hands. Finally, after getting the BAFTA nomination, don’t be shocked if this very European branch goes for a really outside the box pick with Ken Loach

Best Actor

Casey Affleck “Manchester By the Sea”

Andrew Garfield “Hacksaw Ridge”

Ryan Gosling “La La Land”

Viggo Mortensen “Captain Fantastic”

Denzel Washington “Fences”

Other Possibilities– Jake Gyllenhaal “Nocturnal Animals”, Ryan Reynolds “Deadpool”, Joel Edgerton “Loving”, Tom Hanks “Sully”

Commentary – Jake Gyllenhaal seemingly threw a wrench in this race when he beat out Denzel Washington for the fifth slot at BAFTA. But then I did a little digging and realized that in the three decades since Denzel Washington became a glorified movie star, he has received six Oscar nominations and won twice. In that same time period, he has received a whopping zero BAFTA nominations. So there is some weird think with British voters and Denzel, but that certainly is not the case over here. That leaves the same five that all got Globe and SAG nominations: Garfield, Gosling, Affleck, Washington, and Mortensen. I would be surprised if this didn’t match 5/5.

Best Actress

Amy Adams “Arrival”

Emily Blunt “The Girl on the Train”

Natalie Portman “Jackie”

Emma Stone “La La Land”

Meryl Streep “Florence Foster Jenkins”

Other Possibilities- Isabelle Huppert “Elle”, Taraji P. Henson “Hidden Figures”, Annette Bening “20th Century Women”, Ruth Negga “Loving”

Commentary – This race has become incredibly crowded this year, which is fantastic considering the lack of leading roles for women in film. The two major groups that cross over the Oscars are SAG and BAFTA, and this year they matched 5/5. A lot of folks are underestimating Emily Blunt despite these two nominations because the film was not well received. They may be right, but those folks are stupid to ignore the stats favoring her nomination. Yes Isabelle Huppert won the Globe for Elle, but did enough voters see it? Will her unlikeable character be a distraction? Yes Hidden Figures is hitting its stride, but will Taraji P. Henson make it in without any major precursors? Is an Annette Bening prediction crazy, without SAG (6 nominations and 2 wins) and BAFTA (3 nominations, 1 win), two organizations that normally love her? There are too many questions marks for the other possibiltiies, and I simply don’t know who would replace Blunt. So I’m taking the safe road, and sticking with the usually telling SAG/BAFTA combination.

Best Supporting Actor

Mahershala Ali “Moonlight”

Jeff Bridges “Hell or High Water”

Hugh Grant “Florence Foster Jenkins”

Dev Patel “Lion”

Aaron Taylor-Johnson “Nocturnal Animals”

Other Possibilities – Lucas Hedges “Manchester By the Sea”, Kevin Costner “Hidden Figures”, Michael Shannon “Nocturnal Animals”, Simon Helberg “Florence Foster Jenkins”, Ben Foster “Hell or High Water”

Commentary – When Aaron Taylor-Johnson pulled off an upset at the Globes, it seemed like one of those strange anomalies that would not cross over to the Oscars. But then his momentum continued with a BAFTA nomination and a strong showing for Nocturnal Animals overall. Unfortunately that means that the talented Lucas Hedges, in his big breakthrough Manchester By the Sea, will probably miss out, as Ali, Bridges, Grant and Patel all got Golden Globe, SAG, and BAFTA nominations.

Best Supporting Actress

Viola Davis “Fences”

Naomie Harris “Moonlight”

Nicole Kidman “Lion”

Octavia Spencer “Hidden Figures”

Michelle Williams “Manchester By the Sea”

Other Contenders – Janelle Monae “Hidden Figures”, Hayley Squires “I, Daniel Blake”

Commentary – So the Globes and SAG matched up perfectly, and the only wrench in the equation was a surprise nomination for Hayley Squires at BAFTA. I, Daniel Blake feels like a truly British effort that I was doubt was widely seen enough by Oscar voters to register. That leaves the final five looking pretty comfortable: Davis, Harris, Kidman, Spencer, and Williams.

Here are the rest of the categories:

Best Adapted Screenplay

Eric Heisserer "Arrival"

August Wilson "Fences"

Luke Davies "Lion"

Barry Jenkins and Tarell Alvin McRaney "Moonlight"

Tom Ford "Nocturnal Animals"

Best Original Screenplay

Taylor Sheridan "Hell or High Water"

Damien Chazelle "La La Land"

Efthymis Filippou and Yorgos Lanthimos "The Lobster"

Kenneth Lonergan "Manchester By the Sea"

Byron Howard, Rich Moore, Jared Bush, Jim Reardon, Josie Trinidad, Phil Johnston and Jennifer Lee "Zootopia"

Best Animated Feature

Kubo and the Two Strings

Moana

My Life as a Zucchini

The Red Turtle

Zootopia

Best Documentary Feature

13th

Cameraperson

Gleason

I Am Not Your Negro

O.J.: Made in America

Best Foreign Language Film

Land of Mine (Demark)

A Man Called Ove (Sweden)

My Life as a Zucchini (Switzerland)

The Salesman (Iran)

Toni Erdmann (Germany)

Best Cinematography

Bradford Young "Arrival"

Linus Sandgren "La La Land"

James Laxton "Moonlight"

Seamus McGarvey "Nocturnal Animals"

Rodrigo Prieto "Silence"

Best Costume Design

Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

Florence Foster Jenkins

Hail, Caesar!

Jackie

La La Land

Best Film Editing

Arrival

Hacksaw Ridge

La La Land

Manchester By the Sea

Moonlight

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Deadpool

Florence Foster Jenkins

A Man Called Ove

Best Original Score

John Williams "The BFG"

Alexandre Desplat "Florence Foster Jenkins"

Justin Hurwitz "La La Land"

Dustin O'Halloran and Hauschka "Lion"

Nicholas Britell "Moonlight"

Best Original Song

Hidden Figures - Runnin'

Jim: The James Foley Story - The Empty Chair

La La Land - Audition

La La Land - City of Stars

Moana - How Far I'll Go

Best Production Design

Arrival

Doctor Strange

Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

Hail, Caesar!

La La Land

Best Sound Mixing

Arrival

Hacksaw Ridge

La La Land

Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

Sully

Best Sound Editing

Arrival

Deepwater Horizon

Hacksaw Ridge

Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

Sully

Best Visual Effects

Arrival

Deepwater Horizon

Doctor Strange

The Jungle Book

Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

Best Animated Short

The Head Vanishes

Inner Workings

Pearl

Piper

Sous Tes Doigts

Best Documentary Short

Extremis

Joe's Violin

The Mute's House

Watani: My Homeland

The White Helmets

Best Live Action Short

Nocturne Black

The Rifle, the Jackal, The Wolf and the Boy

Sing

Timecode

The Way of Tea