#and would prefer third party to win or at least get substantial votes

[mostlysignssomeportents]

Monopolists are winning the repair wars

In 2018, dozens of states introduced Right to Repair bills. These bills are wildly popular among voters, but wildly unpopular among monopolists ranging from Apple to Microsoft to Google to GM to John Deere to Wahl. Every one of these bills was defeated.

Repair advocates regrouped for 2021. 27 R2R bills have been introduced at the state level. Every single one that came up for a vote was defeated, thanks to aggressive lobbying by an unholy alliance of the country’s largest, most profitable, least taxpaying corporations.

In 2014, a pair of American political scientists published a groundbreaking peer-reviewed paper analyzing 30 years’ worth of US policy-making that compared policy outcomes to public polling results.

https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/perspectives-on-politics/article/testing-theories-of-american-politics-elites-interest-groups-and-average-citizens/62327F513959D0A304D4893B382B992B#authors-details

They concluded that general public sentiment had almost no impact on US policy making — but the political preferences of wealthy people and large corporations were hugely predictive of what laws and regulations we’d get.

Or, in poli-sci jargon, “Economic elites and organized groups representing business interests have substantial independent impacts on U.S. government policy, while average citizens and mass-based interest groups have little or no independent influence.”

The Right to Repair fight is a hell of a proof of this principle. It’s really hard to overstate the popularity of the idea that you should be able to fix your own stuff, or choose where you get your stuff fixed.

Take auto-repair. As auto-manufacturing has grown more concentrated, car makers have squeezed independent mechanics — as close to a folk-hero as the American imagination can produce! — to the margins.

After all, forcing car owners to use official service depots has huge advantages: manufacturers can gouge on service prices, they can force drivers to buy expensive original parts, and they get to unilaterally decide when a car is beyond repair and force you to buy a new one.

Drivers have a good intuitive sense that this is going on. That’s why, when Bay Staters voted on Massachusetts Question 1 (an automotive R2R ballot initiative) in 2012, it passed with an 86% majority!

Mass Question 1 is a really good example of how monopolists can arm-twist politicians into frustrating the will of the people. Immediately after the 2012 initiative, auto-makers set about retooling their cars to escape the new right to repair rule.

The 2012 rule forced automakers to give mechanics access to diagnostic info from cars’ wired internal networks, so Big Car moved all the useful diagnostic data to their cars’ wireless networks. Hence the 2020 Massachusetts R2R ballot initiative, which closed this loophole.

The 2020 fight over the Mass. R2R ballot initiative was fuckin’ wild. The car-makers ran some seriously freaky scare-ads, in which the ability of auto mechanics to read wireless diagnostic data led directly to women being stalked and murdered.

https://pluralistic.net/2020/09/03/rip-david-graeber/#rolling-surveillance-platforms

I’m not making this up. The underlying premise was, “We turned your car into a hyper-aggressive mobile surveillance platform that incidentally gets you places. If we let other people see the data we’re nonconsensually extracting from you, it will put you in terrible danger.”

Thankfully, Bay Staters saw through this bullshit and passed 2020’s Question 1 with a 75% majority.

The thing is, people completely understand that they should be in charge of deciding who fixes their stuff.

They understand that the risk of poor repairs should be addressed through consumer protection laws (which also bind monopolists’ own authorized repair depots), not by having the repair market privately regulated by monopolists who have vast conflicts of interest.

This understanding has only deepened through the pandemic year, as authorized repair depots shuttered and vital equipment languished thanks to anti-repair laws and technological countermeasures.

For example, Medtronic’s workhorse PB840 ventilators couldn’t be refurbed without using a grey-market activation dongle that a single Polish med-tech homebrewed, encasing them in cases harvested from busted clock-radios and guitar pedals.

https://pluralistic.net/2020/07/10/flintstone-delano-roosevelt/#medtronic-again

Medtronic — a med-tech monopolist that effected the largest corporate inversion in history to escape US taxes — argues that letting independent med-techs fix its products puts patients at risk, but this argument is every bit as flimsy as the auto-makers’ Mass. scare-ads.

It ignores three important facts:

I. Med-techs have always done this kind of repair. The change isn’t that med-techs are demanding the right to do something new — it’s that Medtronic leveraged its monopoly to foreclose on the industry-standard practice

II. Medtronic’s own security track-record is comically terrible. This is the company that makes pacemakers that can be wirelessly hacked from across a room to kill its user, whose software update system doesn’t even use cryptographic signatures.

If Medtronic is an expert on any aspect of patient safety, that expertise is certainly hard-won, derived from its long history of lethal patient endangerment.

III. If there is a problem with indie technicians struggling to fix Medtronic products, the obvious answer is to provide service manuals, parts and diagnostic codes.

The case for Right to Repair is incredibly strong. Not only does R2R protect consumers from ripoffs, it also provides local jobs — 1–4% of US GDP comes from the independent repair sector, almost entirely in independent small/medium businesses.

https://pluralistic.net/2021/02/02/euthanize-rentiers/#r2r

Repair is an important environmental, labor and human rights story. As leaked internal memos demonstrate, Apple’s aggressively landfilling of devices (so customers buy more) is environmentally devastating and creates demand for conflict minerals.

https://pluralistic.net/2020/07/31/hall-of-famer/#e-waste-apple

The average American family loses $330/year because of the lack of access to independent repair, a $40b annual drag on the economy thanks to monopoly rents collected by monopoly firms.

To say nothing of the impact on jobs: landfilling a kiloton of ewaste creates <1 job; recycling that waste creates 15 jobs, while repairing it creates 200 good, local jobs that can’t be offshored (you don’t send a phone overseas for repair).

https://www.ifixit.com/Right-to-Repair/Jobs-Revolution

Then there’s the food security story: John Deere is an agribusiness monopolist that outraged farmers by claiming that they didn’t own the tractors they paid six figures for, merely “licensed” them on terms that forbade them from fixing their own machines.

Deere leads Big Ag’s anti-repair, forcing farmers to use official parts, preventing modifications that would allow third-party attachments, and collecting outrageous service call fees for a technician whose job is to unlock the tractor after the farmer replaces a part.

This policy means that farmers who fix  their own tractors still can’t use them even if there’s a hail-storm coming and they need to bring in the crop. Farmers — who’ve been fixing their own gear since the first farmer built a forge next to their farmhouse — are desperate.

Some farmers download anonymously maintained Ukrainian firmware and overwrite the Deere software, creating unknowable risk of remote attack. Others have to maintain “backup tractors” they use for weeks while waiting for Deere to fix their equipment.

https://www.npr.org/2021/05/26/1000400896/standoff-between-farmers-and-tractor-makers-intensifies-over-repair-issues

Just like Medtronic and GM, Deere claims that allowing independent service creates infosec risk — but just like its anti-repair comrades, Deere’s own infosec is a dumpster-fire, with tractors across America at risk of mass-scale cyber-attacks:

https://pluralistic.net/2021/04/23/reputation-laundry/#deere-john

The common thread joining these firms is monopoly: a lack of competition that allows them to extract billions from the public, and a cozy cohort of business leaders who can mobilize that loot to ensure that politicians and regulators don’t give the public what it demands.

American industry is experiencing a wave of monopolism not seen since the Gilded Age, and it affects every sector. Take hair-clippers — a category that exploded during the lockdown thanks to the newly created need for home haircuts.

The clipper market is monopolized by a single firm, Wahl. As I discovered — the hard way — Wahl has designed its newest clippers so they disintegrate if you try to take them apart to sharpen them.

https://twitter.com/doctorow/status/1380554358824136706

Instead of sharpening these devices, you’re expected to buy a new $40 blade (for a shaver that costs $60 all in!), and throw out the old one — or, less realistically, you can mail them your razor for factory sharpening.

You won’t be surprised to learn that Wahl is part of the war on repair, sending letters to state legislators warning that letting people sharpen their own clipper blades could lead to fatal housefires.

https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/4446374-Wahl-Opposition-Illinois.html

Two years ago, the FTC convened an inquiry on independent repair called “Nixing the Fix.” The Nixing the Fix report was released earlier this month, and it affirms everything that repair advocates have said all along.

https://pluralistic.net/2021/05/07/pro-act-class-war/#we-fixit

The FTC calls bullshit on manufacturers’ claims about cyber-risk, housefires, and whether getting your car fixed by your family’s beloved mechanic will lead to your murder. It broadly and firmly endorses Right to Repair.

Which brings me back to 2021, were every one of the 27 R2R bills that has been brought before a state legislature for a vote has been defeated, thanks to heavy corporate lobbying by monopolists.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-05-20/microsoft-and-apple-wage-war-on-gadget-right-to-repair-laws

These bills were voted down after heartbreaking testimony from ed-tech repair specialists who described the devastating impact that a broken laptop has on poor families whose kids are doing remote learning.

They were voted down despite the record, the public support, the climate questions, the food security issue, the human rights issues — voted down to preserve the monopoly profits of a tiny number of firms whose claim to being “American” is tenuous at best.

These tax-dodging, offshoring companies view the American public as an all-you-can-eat buffet, and disclaim any responsibility to the country — while still expecting its lawmakers to defend their interests, at the expense of the voters.

Image: Jcaravanos (modified) https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:E-waste_workers.jpg

CC BY-SA: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/deed.en

[patriotsnet]

Who Are Richer Democrats Or Republicans

New Post has been published on https://www.patriotsnet.com/who-are-richer-democrats-or-republicans/

Who Are Richer Democrats Or Republicans

In The Most General Terms The Biggest Difference Between The Parties Comes Down To The View Of The Proper Role Of Government

The Republican party generally believes that it is the responsibility of individuals and communities to take care of people in need.  The Democratic party generally believes that the government should take care of people.  In general, the Republican party believes that if government needs to do a job then it is best for the local governments like cities and counties to make those decisions.  The Democratic party believes that the federal government has more resources and is therefore in a better position to do those jobs.  

Practical example for a child: There are a lot of people who dont have enough food to eat. Republicans believe that people like you and me should help them, and our churches should help them. The Democrats believe that the government needs to spend its money to help them get food.

These Are The Us States Most And Least Dependent On The Federal Government

States that voted Democrat in 2016 generally rely less on federal funding than Republican states, according to a study by WalletHub.

The analysis looked at the return on taxes paid to the federal government, the share of federal jobs, and federal funding as a share of state revenue.

Thirteen out of the top 15 states found to be most dependent on the federal government voted for President Donald Trump in the 2016 presidential election. Ten out of the 15 least dependent states voted for Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton.

Health Care And Drug Addiction Seen As More Pressing Problems Than Inequality

When asked about 11 major issues facing the country today, concern about economic inequality ranks around the middle of the pack, with 44% saying this is a very big problem. By comparison, about two-thirds say the affordability of health care and drug addiction are very big problems.

The affordability of college, the federal budget deficit and climate change are also viewed as big problems by higher shares of adults. Inequality is roughly on par with concerns about illegal immigration and racism. And more view it as a very big problem than say the same about terrorism, sexism and job opportunities for all Americans.

Adults with lower incomes are more likely than those with middle or upper incomes to say that economic inequality is a very big problem in the country today. About half of lower-income adults say this, compared with 41% of middle-income Americans and 42% of those with higher incomes.

Lower-income Americans are more likely than other income groups to say reducing economic inequality should be a top priority for the federal government

The degree to which Americans see reducing income inequality as a priority differs by income and by party. Adults with lower incomes are more likely than those with middle and upper incomes to say this should be a top priority. And, by a margin of roughly three-to-one, Democrats are more likely than Republicans to say the same .

The Philosophy Behind Republican Economic Policy

Republicans advocate supply-side economics that primarily benefits businesses and investors. This theory states that tax cuts on businesses allow them to hire more workers, in turn increasing demand and growth. In theory, the increased revenue from a stronger economy offsets the initial revenue loss over time.

Republicans advocate the right to pursue prosperity without government interference. They argue this is achieved by self-discipline, enterprise, saving, and investing.

Republicans business-friendly approach leads most people to believe that they are better for the economy. A closer look reveals that Democrats are, in many respects, actually better.

How Is The Democratic Party Different From The Republican Party

Democrats are generally considered liberal, while Republicans are seen as conservative. The Democratic Party typically supports a larger government role in economic issues, backing regulations and social welfare programs. The Republicans, however, typically want a smaller government that is less involved in the economy. This contrary view on the size of government is reflected in their positions on taxesDemocrats favour a progressive tax to finance governments expanded role, while Republicans support lower taxes for all. However, Republicans do support a large budget for the military, and they often aggressively pursue U.S. national security interests, even if that means acting unilaterally. Democrats, however, prefer multilateralism. On social issues, Democrats seek greater freedoms, while Republicans follow more traditional values, supporting government intervention in such matters. For example, Democrats generally back abortion rights, while Republicans dont. In terms of geography, Democrats typically dominate in large cities, while Republicans are especially popular in rural areas.

Democrats Tend To Have A Lot More Anger And Negativity In Their Rhetoric According To Them If You Support President Trump Well Then You Are A Racist And A Nazi

They generally seem to be out to get someone making things more personal.  Why are they so afraid to use the facts to reinforce what they want to do? Its agenda first then find or make up facts to support the rhetoric.

If they cant beat you at the polling booth, they try and beat you in court and thats just a great example of something thats not a pleasant experience. And not quite working in the long run. They keep getting overturned.

Americas Top 10 Richest Families

Walton Republican  The family owns the Walmart corporation. The Walton family fortune is estimated to be about $130 billion.

Koch Republican  Businessmen, owners of Koch Industries, a manufacturing company. Koch brothers have a net worth of about $41 billion each .

Mars Republican  Own the Mars candy company. The three children of founder Forrest Mars are worth about $78 billion together.

Cargill-MacMillan Republican  The Cargill-MacMillan family owns 90 percent of the largest privately-owned corporation in the U.S. The family, as a whole, is worth about $49 billion.

Cox Democrat  The Cox family owns a number of auto consumer sites and services . They have an estimated net worth of $41 billion.

Johnson  Republican  The Johnson family is known for their cleaning products and hygiene products. They are valued at $30 billion.

Pritzker Both  Founders of Hyatt. The family has a combined value of $29 billion in 2017.

Johnson  Republican  Overseers at Fidelity, ensuring the cash of millions of Americans. The family has a combined net worth of $28.5 billion.

Hearst Republican  The Hearst family owns one of Americas largest media companies. The family is valued at $28 billion.

Duncan Republican  The Duncan family works mostly with oil and pipelines. The family is valued at about $21.5 billion.

Republican Critics Of The Progressive Squad Are Quick To Ignore Their Own Lunatic Right

OPINION It was late June 1980 when I arrived in Washington after teaching political science for three years at Bucknell University. My job was to write for The Political Report, a little-circulated weekly newsletter that reported on House and Senate races.

The nations politics were in the process of changing more than I realized.

In November, Ronald Reagan would be elected president, Republicans would make significant gains in the House and win control of the Senate for the first time since 1954, and a new crop of conservative candidates were showing their political muscle sometimes by challenging relatively moderate GOP incumbents in both the House and Senate.

In Alabama, liberal Republican Rep. John Buchanan Jr. lost his bid for renomination to ultra-conservative Albert Lee Smith Jr. Even more noteworthy for me, growing up in New York, Al DAmato scored an 11-point victory over veteran liberal Sen. Jacob Javits in the states GOP Senate primary.

Also in the Senate, conservative Republican Steve Symms ousted Idaho Democratic incumbent Frank Church; conservative Republican Bob Kasten upset Wisconsin Democratic incumbent Gaylord Nelson; conservative Republican John East ousted North Carolina Democratic incumbent Robert Morgan; and Iowa Rep. Charles E. Grassley beat Democratic Sen. John Culver .

But while both the country and the GOP were moving right, the Republican Party still had room for a substantial contingent of moderates.

Will More Republicans Die From Covid Than Democrats

razelove  |  509 opinions shared on Society & Politics topic.Influencer3 mo People lie, right and left. You’re looking not at a number comparing those immunized or not immunized against voter rolls, but asking two questions at random, what party do you affiliate with, and do you plan to get vaccinated.Either way, it’s a brain dead question. More people would die regardless. Let’s say that 45% between both parties is only 30% of Americans , that’s enough to fall short of the unknown number that we would need to reach for herd immunity, which to the best of my knowledge no country has reached yet to find that sweet spot.It will simply mutate more and more and recircle the globe again and again. Which honestly is fine by me. The panic and blow to the economy were worse than the virus. Maybe sars-cov-3 will be more exciting though. I was in panic mode until there were more concrete numbers a few months in with cov-2.You also have to figure that if a virus becomes too deadly it wipes itself out as the hosts for that virus die faster than they can transmit it, like ebola, some strains of flu or dysentery. I’m not too concerned as me and my family caught it already, and kind of figured on this sticking around like the flu. 0|0

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Investor George Marcus And His Wife Judith Gave $9610125 Mostly To Democrats

Total donations: $9,610,125

Party Affiliation: Democrat

Net worth: $1.5 billion

George Marcus is the founder of real-estate brokerage Marcus & Millichap Company, according to the company’s website. Marcus is also the chairman of Essex Property Trust, a multi-family real-estate investment trust, and he serves on the board of California-based commercial bank Greater Bay Bancorp.

The Marcuses gave $10,400 to Republicans in 2018, according to the Center for Responsive Politics. The rest went to Democrats.

Republicans Vs Democrats: Where Do The Two Main Us Political Parties Stand On Key Issues

After an impeachment, a positive coronavirus test and an unforgettable first presidential debate rounded out the final months of Donald Trumps first term, it seems fair to say the past few years have been a roller-coaster ride for US politics.

On November 3, Americans will decide which candidate will win the 2020 presidential election, sparking either the beginning, or end, for each nominee.

But how does it all work?

Well, the US political system is dominated by two main parties the Democrats and the Republicans and the next president will belong to one of those two.

Just how different are their policies?

Heres what you need to know, starting with the candidates.

Heiress Deborah Simon Donated $97 Million To Democrats

Party Affiliation: Democrat

Net worth: Unknown

Deborah Simon is the daughter of Indiana shopping mall developer Melvin Simon. Simon inherited a portion of her father’s fortune after a bitter legal battle over his estate with her stepmother Bren Simon, according to Forbes. 

Simon’s family had a net worth of $6.8 billion in 2014, according to Forbes.

Political Coalitions Are About More Than Just Income Redistribution

Posted December 8, 2014

In his 2004 book, journalist Thomas Frank asked: Whats the matter with Kansas? Ever since, many liberals have taken it as an article of faith that if working-class whites only knew what was good for them then theyd vote for Democrats.

The usual rebuttal from political science is to point out that many poorer whites in fact do vote for Democrats. Or, at least, poorer whites are much more likely to vote Democratic than are richer whites. Its just not the case — even in Kansas — that working-class whites are ignoring their redistributive interests in their voting choices. Still, it makes sense to wonder why Democrats win the poorest whites by a nose rather than a mile.

Many conservatives similarly ask: Whats the matter with Harvard? Ive studied the Harvard/Radcliffe Class of 1977 . On the whole, its a fantastically wealth group, with family incomes typically in the top 1% or 2% of the country. Yet for every Republican there are around six Democrats.

With Harvard as well, though, its still not the case that people are ignoring their redistributive interests. In the Class of 77, the richest members are less likely to favor Democrats than are the merely well-off or poorer. Still, it makes sense to wonder why Republicans are in such short supply among Ivy League alumni.

Income and Education

Parties are Coalitions

Kansas and Harvard

Jason Weeden is author of .

Related articles:

Who Gets The Most Government Benefits: Urban Democrats Or Rural Republicans

Todays Republican Party, fueled by the Tea Party movements right-wing populism, rails against government benefits and those who receive them. New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, for example, warns that Social Security and Medicare will turn us into a bunch of people sitting on a couch, waiting for their next government check. But who really receives the bulk of government benefits: urban districts represented by Democrats or rural districts represented by Republicans?

Using the New York Times map of the county-level distribution of government benefits, Ive compared Republican and Democratic districts in two states. Here is Californias 9th District compared with the 19th District :

We find a similar story in Minnesotas 5th District and the 6th District : 

This is, of course, a small and unrepresentative sample but more comprehensive studies have shown that the pattern holds: the regions of the United States most inflamed by right-wing, anti-government populism benefit disproportionately from government programs and income transfers. To put it another way, Cadillac driving welfare queens are easily outnumbered by pickup truck driving welfare cowboys.

Stephen Richer Revels In Blue Spotlight Duped Republicans

GOP political newcomer clearly displays his leftist stripes

When the GOP-hating, Hillary-endorsing local newspaper is enraptured with an elected Republican, its a clear sign something is amiss. That is exactly whats happening with Maricopa County Recorder Stephen Richer. The Recorders Office is regarded as a down ballot post, which few people can accurately identify either by the duties or the office holder.

In November 2020, Richer, the previously unknown Republican lawyer ousted the single term democrat and the victory tasted sweet, masking the toxicity aimed at conservatives that we were soon to see. Richer has appeared in a full-color, above-the-fold photo in a newspaper report standing beside democrat Sheriff Paul Penzone and using the prominently displayed word unhinged to describe President Donald Trump. Penzone, it should be remembered defeated six-term Sheriff Joe Arpaio with at least $2 million added to his campaign coffers by none other than Socialist billionaire George Soros who has resolutely donated to overhaul the criminal justice system in his leftist image.

This revealing account was published in Law Enforcement Today.

Displaying its newfound GOP defector poster boy, Sundays edition of the seriously declining local newspaper devotes two pages to a Your Turn column by Stephen Richer, titled, Playing by an awfully different set of rules.  This bold type face, foolish sentiment is directly below the headline:

Perceptions Of The Parties

Judgments about Romney and Obama mirror the views of middle-class Americans toward the Republican and Democratic parties.

According to the survey, only about a quarter to a third of the middle class says that the Republicans or Democrats primarily favor middle-class interests over those of the rich or poor. Republicans are perceived as the party of the rich, while the middle class is divided over whether the Democratic Party is more concerned about their needs or those of the poor.

To examine the intersection of social class and politics, the Pew Research survey asked respondents if each of the two major political parties favors the rich, favors the middle class or favors the poor.

Overall, the middle class was somewhat more likely to say that the Democratic Party rather than the GOP favored its interests . But about as many say the Democrats favor the poor , and 16% believe the party favors the rich.

At the same time about six-in-ten middle-class adults say the GOP favors the rich

roughly double the 26% who say the Republican Party primarily favors middle-class Americans.

The survey also found that the middle class is politically diverse: Roughly equal shares of middle-class adults identify with the Democratic Party or say they are independents , while somewhat fewer align with the Republican Party . As a group, middle-class adults are more likely to identify themselves as political conservatives than liberals . About a third say they are moderates.

One Of The Worst Offenders Is Mitch Mcconnells Home State Of Kentucky According To This Wallethub Study

Jake Krupa colors in an electoral map at an election watching party as states are called in the 2016 election.

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BOSTON Hey, isnt it time all these so-called conservatives down in the red states actually started standing on their own two feet?

Were not trying to be mean. But, you know: Tough love.

A new report from WalletHub confirms what we already suspected: The states that depend the most on big gubmint are also the states that are are always whining the most about big gubmint.

And, wouldnt you know it, one of the worst offenders is Kentucky the state represented in the Senate by Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, a Republican.

How about that? Do you think hes going to mention it any time soon?

Kentucky ranks fifth in terms of overall dependence on government, WalletHub determined using data on federal spending in each state, the share of households on welfare, the number of government workers and the total tax burden as a share of income.. No. 1 was Mississippi no surprises there followed by Alaska.

Conservative red states of the south and west make up eight of the 10 states with the highest dependency on government, and 19 of the top 25.

Oops.

Yes, isnt it time to roll back government spending? You show us the way, West Virginia . And you, Arizona and South Carolina .

Lets crack down on all those Cadillac queens. Except it turns out the real offenders are the Pickup princes in the South and West.

Quiz: Let Us Predict Whether Youre A Democrat Or A Republican

Tell us a few details about you and well guess which political party you belong to. It shouldnt be that simple, right? Were all complex people with a multiplicity of identities and values. But the reality is that in America today, how you answer a handful of questions is very likely to determine how you vote.

This quiz, based on recent surveys with more than 140,000 responses, presents a series of yes-or-no questions to predict whether someone is more likely to identify as a Democrat or a Republican. It captures divisions that should make you worried about the future of American democracy.

We wont collect your answers.

The first question is the most important: Its about race. Asking whether someone is black, Hispanic or Asian cleaves the electorate into two groups. Those who answer yes lean Democratic; the others are split roughly evenly between the parties. Among those who are not black, Hispanic or Asian , the second most important question is whether the person considers religion important. If they answer yes, they are probably Republican.

Its not just race and religion, though. Party allegiances are now also tied to education, gender and age. Americans have sorted themselves more completely and rigidly than any time in recent history.

How demographics predict party affiliation

The group most likely to be Democrats are black women older than about 30.

Meeting in the Middle

Reliable Republicans

Taking The Perspective Of Others Proved To Be Really Hard

The divide in the United States is wide, and one indication of that is how difficult our question proved for many thoughtful citizens. A 77-year-old Republican woman from Pennsylvania was typical of the voters who struggled with this question, telling us, This is really hard for me to even try to think like a devilcrat!, I am sorry but I in all honesty cannot answer this question. I cannot even wrap my mind around any reason they would be good for this country.

Similarly, a 53-year-old Republican from Virginia said, I honestly cannot even pretend to be a Democrat and try to come up with anything positive at all, but, I guess they would vote Democrat because they are illegal immigrants and they are promised many benefits to voting for that party. Also, just to follow what others are doing. And third would be just because they hate Trump so much. The picture she paints of the typical Democratic voter being an immigrant, who goes along with their party or simply hates Trump will seem like a strange caricature to most Democratic voters. But her answer seems to lack the animus of many.  

Democrats struggled just as much as Republicans. A 33-year-old woman from California told said, i really am going to have a hard time doing this but then offered that Republicans are morally right as in values, going to protect us from terrorest and immigrants, going to create jobs.

How To Explain The Difference Between Republicans And Democrats

Politics are confusing, even for adults. This years political cycle is even more confusing than most.  Anything that confuses and parents is sure to raise questions in children.

As the primaries roll on, many children are asking questions about the two major political parties and what all the arguing means.  This years political cycle is more emotionally charged than most.  Those emotions can make it difficult for parents to fairly explain political differences to children.  Goodness knows, as an avid sports fan, I could not objectively describe the rivalry between the New York Yankees and the Boston Red Sox.

The Philosophy Behind Democratic Economic Policy

Democrats gear their economic policies to benefit low-income and middle-income families. They argue that reducing income inequality is the best way to foster economic growth. Low-income families are more likely to spend any extra money on necessities instead of saving or investing it. That directly increases demand and spurs economic growth. Democrats also support a Keynesian economic theory, which says that the government should spend its way out of a recession.

One dollar spent on increased food stamp benefits generates $1.73 in economic output.

President Franklin D. Roosevelt first outlined the Economic Bill of Rights in his 1944 State of the Union address. It included taxes on war profiteering and price controls on food costs. President Harry Trumans 1949 Fair Deal proposed an increase in the minimum wage, civil rights legislation, and national health care. President Barack Obama expanded Medicaid with the 2010 Affordable Care Act.

Congress Net Worth Demographic

One way to look at the question of who is richer between republicans and democrats is to examine the people representing us in Congress.

The net worth of a democratic senator in 2011 was $13.5 million, compared to a net worth of just under $7 million for Republicans. Interestingly, Democratic senators have on average twice the net worth of a Republican senator!

The story is a little different in the House Of Representatives, where the average net worth of Democrats is $5.7 million opposed to $7.6 million for Republican representatives.

Think Republicans Are Disconnected From Reality Its Even Worse Among Liberals

A new survey found Democrats live with less political diversity despite being more tolerant of it with startling results

In a surprising new national survey, members of each major American political party were asked what they imagined to be the beliefs held by members of the other. The survey asked Democrats: How many Republicans believe that racism is still a problem in America today? Democrats guessed 50%. Its actually 79%. The survey asked Republicans how many Democrats believe most police are bad people. Republicans estimated half; its really 15%.

The survey, published by the thinktank More in Common as part of its Hidden Tribes of America project, was based on a sample of more than 2,000 people. One of the studys findings: the wilder a persons guess as to what the other party is thinking, the more likely they are to also personally disparage members of the opposite party as mean, selfish or bad. Not only do the two parties diverge on a great many issues, they also disagree on what they disagree on.

This effect, the report says, is so strong that Democrats without a high school diploma are three times more accurate than those with a postgraduate degree. And the more politically engaged a person is, the greater the distortion.

A coalition of college Republican clubs recently endorsed a tax on carbon pollution.

[brajeshupadhyay]

Chief Justice John G. Roberts Jr. joined the Supreme Court’s liberal justices to deal a surprising setback to abortion opponents on Monday, striking down a restrictive Louisiana abortion law and reaffirming the court’s past rulings that have upheld a woman’s right to choose. By a 5-4 vote, the court threw out a Louisiana law that would have required abortion doctors to have admitting privileges at a nearby hospital. If put into effect, it was expected to result in the closing of all but one of the state’s abortion providers. It came as no surprise that the four liberal justices opposed the law since they struck down a similar Texas law four years ago. But the chief justice, a conservative who has consistently opposed abortion rights in the past and had voted to uphold the Texas law, cast the fifth vote with them, citing precedent as his reason. It was the court’s first abortion ruling since President Trump’s two appointees took their seats, and it dashed hopes of abortion opponents who expected the more conservative court to move to repeal Roe vs. Wade, or at least give states more power to narrow it. It also marked the third major decision in the past two weeks in which the chief justice joined with the court’s four liberals. The court extended workplace protections for LGBTQ employees and blocked Trump’s repeal of the Obama-era policy that protected so-called Dreamers from deportation. A statement from the White House press secretary called the decision “unfortunate,” adding that “unelected justices have intruded on the sovereign prerogatives of state governments by imposing their own policy preference in favor of abortion to override legitimate abortion safety regulations.” Anti-abortion advocates cast the loss in political terms, saying the ruling underscored the need to reelect Trump in November so he could appoint another conservative justice to provide the fifth voted needed to repeal Roe vs. Wade. “Today’s ruling is a a bitter disappointment,” said Marjorie Dannenfelser, president of the Susan B. Anthony List, which opposes abortion. “It is imperative that we reelect President Trump and our pro-life majority in the U.S. Senate so we can further restore the judiciary, most especially the Supreme Court.” Former Vice President Joe Biden, the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee, said the November election would be critical to protecting abortion rights. “Let’s be clear: Republicans in state legislatures will stop at nothing to get rid of Roe — and we have to be just as strong in our defense of it,” Biden said. “They are trying to get these laws appealed to the Supreme Court in the hope that Trump’s justices will vote to overturn Roe v. Wade. It’s wrong. It’s pernicious. And we have to stop it.” Roberts, in a 16-page concurring opinion for June Medical Services vs. Russo, said he did not agree with the legal reasoning in Justice Stephen Breyer’s ruling, joined by the three other liberal justices, which said that the court should balance the health costs and benefits of each abortion regulation. A similar argument was used to strike down the Texas law. But Roberts concluded nevertheless that the court should honor the outcome of the Texas decision. “The legal doctrine of stare decisis requires us, absent special circumstances, to treat like cases alike. The Louisiana law imposes a burden on access to abortion just as severe as that imposed by the Texas law, for the same reasons. Therefore Louisiana’s law cannot stand under our precedent,” he said. Roberts’ decision to cross the ideological divide to support a liberal precedent is in keeping with his stated concerns that the court is increasingly viewed by Americans through a partisan lens. In public statements, Roberts likes to say the justices do not decides cases as Republicans or Democrats. Some Senate Republicans turned their ire on the chief justice. “If the court cares about preserving its legitimacy as a non-political institution, then it shouldn’t make decisions based on how its judgments will be perceived politically,” said Sen. Ben Sasse (R-Neb.). “The problem with today’s decision is absolutely terrible jurisprudence. Simply, bad lawyering.” Roberts’ opinion on Monday suggested he would uphold some abortion regulations, but not those that greatly hamper women. Roberts also described as precedent the court’s 1992 ruling in Planned Parenthood vs. Casey, which reaffirmed the central principle of Roe vs. Wade that states may not put a “substantial obstacle” in front of women seeking abortions. But in a line that might worry abortion rights advocates, Roberts also noted that in the Louisiana case, “neither party has asked us to reassess the constitutional validity of that standard.” That left open the possibility that he would be open to overturning Roe vs. Wade and the right to abortion if that question were squarely presented to the court. Roberts’ defection does not bode well for at least a dozen Republican states that have enacted laws in the past two years that would severely limit or entirely ban abortion. For years, former Justice Anthony M. Kennedy, a moderate Republican appointee, had cast the deciding votes with liberals to maintain the right to abortion. Four years ago, the court struck down a Texas law nearly identical to the Louisiana law on the grounds that it put a heavy burden on women seeking abortions because it had the effect of closing more than half of the state’s clinics that provided abortions. Women who lived outside the state’s major cities would be forced to travel hundreds of miles to find an open clinic. By a 5-3 vote, with Kennedy, the court said the burdens of the state’s restrictions greatly outweighed the claimed benefits to health. Roberts was among the conservative dissenters at the time. After Kennedy retired in 2018, he was replaced by the more conservative Justice Brett M. Kavanaugh. Last year, four members of the court — Justices Clarence Thomas, Samuel A. Alito Jr., Neil M. Gorsuch and Kavanaugh — voted to allow the Louisiana law to take effect once it had been upheld by the 5th Circuit Court in New Orleans. But Roberts joined with the four liberals to put the law on hold while its constitutionality was reviewed. Abortion rights advocates were relieved by Monday’s decision, but not ready to claim a final victory. Kathaleen Pittman, administrator of the Hope Medical Group for Women in Shreveport, La., described the mood at the clinic Monday morning as “absolute giddiness.” But she added, “This week, we’re winning the battle, and that means we can stay open to fight another day. But as a provider, I’ll tell you, I’m celebrating today, but I’m still worried about our future.” Others said the court narrowly avoided a devastating setback for women of color. Dariely Rodriquez, director of the economic justice project for the Lawyers’ Committee for Civil Rights Under Law, said, “Louisiana’s law would have had an especially stark impact on low-income Black women who have long faced systemic and structural barriers to healthcare, including abortion.” The court heard arguments in the case during the first week in March, shortly before the court, like much of Washington, shut down because the coronavirus outbreak. The justices sounded closely split, and the chief justice did not signal how he would vote. Lawyers for Louisiana defended the admitting privileges rule as a health and safety measure. They said it would help assure that only competent and trusted physicians were performing abortions and that their patients could be quickly transferred to a hospital in an emergency. Abortion rights lawyers called the rule a sham and a deceptive scheme designed to shut down already embattled abortion clinics. They said that because early abortions are very safe, patients rarely are sent to a hospital. Typically, hospitals extend admitting privileges to doctors who regularly send patients there. And because abortion remains controversial, many hospitals, and especially in small towns and rural areas, are wary of having an affiliation with a doctor who performs abortions. During the March argument, they told the justices that if the Louisiana law were upheld and the clinic in Shreveport closed, pregnant women could be forced to travel several hundred miles to New Orleans to see a doctor who provides an abortion. Times staff writer Jenny Jarvie in Atlanta contributed to this report. window.fbAsyncInit = function() { FB.init({ appId : '119932621434123', xfbml : true, version : 'v2.9' }); }; (function(d, s, id){ var js, fjs = d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0]; if (d.getElementById(id)) {return;} js = d.createElement(s); js.id = id; js.src = "https://ift.tt/1sGOfhN"; fjs.parentNode.insertBefore(js, fjs); }(document, 'script', 'facebook-jssdk')); The post Supreme Court ruling strikes down Louisiana abortion law appeared first on Sansaar Times.

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[mistereblue]

warrnambool car thief who fled custody

warrnambool car thief who fled custody jailed for 140 days The groups exchanged questions before the video chat and elected representatives from each class as speakers. He also told the officer that his father would blindfold him while this was happening.. The young man, now 25, testified Tuesday that Sandusky pinned him down while they were alone in the basement of the coach's home. Another Weston three pointer after the break cut the gap before Ash Bithel bagged another try for the visitors. Limit one entry per person or email address for the entire Contest Period. Karen Wilson said the scene was "very chaotic. They also lost to Ohio 34 13. The document calls for the Community Environmental Advisory Commission(CEAC) and the Zero Waste Commission to perform research and outreach to these ends.. Tampa's top cornerback at this point is past his prime 33 year old Brent Grimes, while first round draft pick Vernon Hargreaves learns the ropes. 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In the nomination race, the senators from Massachusetts and Vermont are dominant. Many expect both to pass Joe BidenBernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren hug after participating in the second Democratic primary debate in Detroit, Michigan. Photograph: Brendan Smialowski/AFP/Getty ImagesAmong the what ifs and what might have beens of politics in America there is Ready for Warren, a group that urged Elizabeth Warren to run for president in 2016.“If I’m being quite frank, I’m upset that she didn’t and haven’t really forgiven her,” said Dave Handy, a political organiser who was part of that effort. “We could have avoided a lot of trouble if she had just had the courage to run.”Handy threw in his lot with Bernie Sanders instead. “Even though progressives like myself begged her, Liz refused to run and this whole apparatus that Bernie now has – that I’m a part of and many progressives and now many democratic socialists are a part of – could have been hers. And we could have avoided the whole ‘Bernie bro’ myth that’s been carved out.”Activists such as Handy illustrate divided loyalties and an exquisite dilemma for progressives as Democrats choose their nominee to take on Donald Trump in 2020. Polls show Sanders and Warren running almost neck and neck behind the centrist Joe Biden, begging the question: to avoid splitting the vote, should one drop out and endorse the other?With both candidates drawing bigger crowds than a former vice-president who seems increasingly gaffe-prone and vulnerable, there is no sign of it happening any time soon. Indeed, some on the left believe Sanders and Warren are poised to push Biden into third and go head to head.> Warren and Bernie have been dominating the debate; I feel like the Biden campaign is very much on the defensive> > Charles ChamberlainCenk Uygur, host and founder of the online news show The Young Turks, wrote in the Washington Post this week: “While Warren and Sanders draw thousands, his audiences are far smaller. His campaign is gasping for breath, and we’re only in August. The Biden fade has begun. I’m not sure he will even be in the race by Iowa.”Uygur added: “This race now isn’t between Warren and Biden; it’s between Warren and Sanders. And for progressives, that’s a dream come true.” ‘Elizabeth Warren Is Completely Serious’Sanders, a senator from Vermont who at 77 is the oldest candidate in the field, no longer has the element of surprise he enjoyed against Hillary Clinton in 2016. He continues to promise free tuition at public universities, a $15-an-hour minimum wage and universal healthcare. He still has a peerless network of small-dollar donors and continues to generate enthusiasm at rallies.Warren, a 70-year-old senator from Massachusetts and longtime critic of Wall Street, has enjoyed a slow but inexorable surge. She has promised to “fight” – one of her favourite words – a rigged system and has released detailed policy proposals on everything from breaking up tech companies to implementing a “wealth tax” on the rich.Her populist economic message has struck a chord, drawing big crowds – 15,000 in Seattle; 12,000 in St Paul, Minnesota – and positive media buzz. “The Very Real Possibility of President Elizabeth Warren” was Rolling Stone’s headline; “Slowly and Persistently, Elizabeth Warren Is On the Rise” declared New York magazine; “Elizabeth Warren Is Completely Serious” trumpeted a profile in the New York Times.Charles Chamberlain, chair of the progressive group Democracy for America, said: “She’s the big winner of the last eight months. We’ve seen her steadily climb among our members. It’s a well run, well executed campaign, clearly engaging with voters. But Bernie Sanders has also been campaigning hard – it’s been ‘steady as she goes’.“Warren and Bernie have been dominating the debate; I feel like the Biden campaign is very much on the defensive when it comes to policy. The rallies for Biden are eerily reminiscent of the lacklustre campaign of Hillary Clinton. Warren and Bernie are going to event after event and just getting bigger.”Joe Biden listens to a question from a representative of Moms Demand Action, a pro-gun control group, in South Carolina. Photograph: Sean Rayford/Getty ImagesChamberlain shares the view that Biden will fade.“I think this is going to come down to a Democratic primary with Warren and Bernie at the top,” he said. “Neither should drop out. They need to fight this to the end, even if that means going to a convention where deals have to be made.”Who would win such a fight remains a matter of conjecture. Sanders won his first national union endorsement this week from the 35,000-member United Electrical, Radio and Machine Workers of America. But most unions remain on the fence.Liberal groups are also split. In June Warren led a MoveOn survey with the support of 38% of members, followed by Sanders with 17%. In July, Sanders topped a Democracy for America poll with 32%, followed by Warren on 26%. In both cases, Warren had gained ground.Indeed, she has gathered momentum nationally, overcoming controversy about her dubious claims of Native American ancestry, while Sanders has arguably hit a ceiling. There is a perception, at least, that she is gaining at his expense.Michael Steele, a former Republican National Committee chair now a political analyst for the MSNBC network, said: “You’ve seen, in the rise of Elizabeth Warren, the Bernie Sanders voter falling off of Bernie, finding a better, younger fort to to dock their ship to, if you will. They don’t think that they are losing a step with Elizabeth; in fact, they are probably gaining a few more steps because she checked a number of other boxes for them – in terms of being a woman, for example.> If both campaigns feel that they have traction, you won’t have an incentive there for either one of them to drop out> > John Zogby“We’ve seen that in the numbers, how she’s eclipsed him and now passed him in the polling, where in some polls she’s a lot closer to Joe Biden than Bernie was in the past.”This week Senator Kirsten Gillibrand of New York became the sixth Democrat to drop out of the race since July. Steele does not expect Sanders or Warren to throw in the towel any time soon.“If both campaigns feel that they have traction and they’re polling relatively close to each other, you won’t have an incentive there for either one of them to drop out. They’re both raising money, they’re both organising on the ground.“I think they’re going to be fairly competitive with each other until one separates clearly from the other. That has not happened yet. If I’m Elizabeth Warren, I’m not going to cede that ground to Bernie Sanders, and if I’m Bernie Sanders I’m certainly not going to cede ground to her that I established going back to 2016.” ‘Bearer of the torch’Imagined as a Venn diagram, there is common ground between Warren and Sanders voters but each has their own distinct base. A survey by the Pew Research Center this month found that about seven in 10 of Warren’s supporters are white, compared to about half of Sanders’ backers. Warren’s supporters are substantially more likely to have a college degree compared with supporters of Biden and Sanders.John Zogby, a pollster and author, said: “Because of progressive ideology there is some sort of overlap, but they are different. Warren picks up support among women that ordinarily Sanders would not get, including former Clinton supporters who regard her as the bearer of the torch to get a woman elected.“To assume that if one drops out, he or she would back the other is too facile. If Warren dropped out, she would probably consider that she had some leverage in the mainstream of the party and a chance to run again in the future, so would most likely endorse a mainstream figure like Biden.”The senators have differences in style and substance. Warren embraces the term “capitalist” and is seen by some as less disruptive to corporate interests; Sanders characterises himself as a “democratic socialist” and offers fewer policy specifics. Warren refused to appear on Fox News; Sanders held a town hall on the network. Warren has just taken her 50,000th campaign selfie with supporters who wait in long lines; Sanders retains a curmudgeonly persona and showed little appetite for small talk at the recent Iowa state fair.But when the duo, who remain fast friends, appeared together in the second debate in Detroit, distinctions appeared insignificant as they joined forces to fend off centrists on their support of policies such as Medicare for All, which would extend the existing government-run health insurance programme to all Americans, largely eliminating a role for private insurance.In the end, however, even if the progressive dream comes true, there is bound to be disappointment and compromise for someone. Handy, 31, the former Ready for Warren activist, said: “In terms of the entire political spectrum, I would much prefer a Warren administration to a [Kamala] Harris administration or a second term of Trump. But that said, it just won’t go far enough.“What this country needs now more than ever is what we had post-world war two with the building of the American middle class and FDR’s incredible social reform. That is what a Sanders administration will do, and my fear is that a Warren administration will not go far enough in addressing income inequality, in addressing criminal justice reform, in addressing our climate, in addressing all of these problems.”

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[ivankahasbeentreatedsounfairly]

We’re just a month into the Trump presidency, and already so many are wondering: How can we end it?

One poll from Public Policy Polling found that as many Americans — 46 percent — favor impeachment of President Trump as oppose it. Ladbrokes, the betting website, offers even odds that Trump will resign or leave office through impeachment before his term ends.

Sky Bet, another site, is taking wagers on whether Trump will be out of office by July.

There have been more than 1,000 references to “Watergate” in the news media in the last week, according to the Nexis archival site, with even some conservatives calling for Trump’s resignation or warning that he could be pushed out. Dan Rather, the former CBS News anchor who covered Watergate, says that Trump’s Russia scandal isn’t now at the level of Watergate but could become at least as big.

Maybe things will settle down. But what is striking about Trump is not just the dysfunction of his administration but also the — vigorously denied — allegations that Trump’s team may have cooperated with Vladimir Putin to steal the election. What’s also different is the broad concern that Trump is both: A) unfit for office, and B) dangerously unstable. One pro-American leader in a foreign country called me up the other day and skipped the preliminaries, starting with: “What the [expletive] is wrong with your country?”

Trump still has significant political support, so the obstacles are gargantuan. But the cleanest and quickest way to remove a president involves Section 4 of the 25th Amendment and has never been attempted. It provides that the cabinet can, by a simple majority vote, strip the president of his powers and immediately hand power to the vice president. The catch is that the ousted president can object, and in that case Congress must approve the ouster by a two-thirds vote in each chamber, or the president regains office.

The 25th Amendment route is to be used when a president is “unable” to carry out his duties. I asked Laurence Tribe, the Harvard professor of constitutional law, whether that could mean not just physical incapacity, but also mental instability. Or, say, the taint of having secretly colluded with Russia to steal an election?

Tribe said that he believed Section 4 could be used in such a situation.

“In the unlikely event that Pence and a majority of Trump’s bizarre cabinet were to grow the spine needed to do the right thing with the process set up by that provision, we would surely be in a situation where a very large majority of the public, including a very substantial percentage of Trump’s supporters, would back if not insist upon such a move,” Tribe said. “In that circumstance, I can’t imagine Trump and his lawyers succeeding in getting the federal courts to interfere.”

The better known route is impeachment. But for now it’s hard to imagine a majority of the House voting to impeach, and even less conceivable that two-thirds of the Senate would vote to convict so that Trump would be removed. Moreover, impeachment and trial in the Senate would drag on for months, paralyzing America and leaving Trump in office with his finger on the nuclear trigger.

My take is that unless things get much worse, removal may be a liberal fantasy. Progressives thought that Trump would never win the nomination or the election. He survived the “Access Hollywood” tape and countless crises that pundits thought would doom him, so it’s not clear why Republicans would desert him now that he’s president.

Some people believe that the 2018 midterm elections will be so catastrophic for the G.O.P. that everyone will be ready to get rid of him. I’m skeptical. In the Senate, the map is disastrous for Democrats in 2018: The Republicans will be defending only eight Senate seats, while Democrats will in effect be defending 25.

So while Democrats can gnash their teeth, it’ll be up to Republicans to decide whether to force Trump out. And that won’t happen unless they see him as ruining their party as well as the nation.

“The only incentive for Republicans to act — with or without the cabinet — is the same incentive Republicans had in 1974 to insist on Nixon’s resignation,” Larry Sabato of the University of Virginia told me. “The incentive is survival.”

Trump does have one weakness, and it’s parallel to Nixon’s. Republicans in Congress were willing to oust Nixon partly because they vastly preferred his vice president, Gerald Ford — just as congressional Republicans prefer Mike Pence today.

If I were betting, I’d say we’re stuck with Trump for four years. But as Sabato says: “Lots of things about Donald Trump’s election and early presidency have been shocking. Why should it stop now?”

And what does it say about a presidency that, just one month into it, we’re already discussing whether it can be ended early?

[folkfest-blog1]

JAMES HARDEN SAYS He's Nice BASKETBALL Player Within the International

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JAMES HARDEN SAYS He's Nice BASKETBALL Player Within the International

James Harden is Inside the midst of a career year, and he these days told Time’s Sean Gregory that he believes he’s the Excellent Player In the World.

When asked if he must be the purveyor of that illustrious name, Harden spoke back, “For positive.”

“I feel like I’m solid in the whole lot: IQ, studying the sport, I can rating the basketball, make my teammates higher,” he said. “There aren’t a lot of men who have all the one’s traits in one. They might be manner greater athletic, can shoot the ball way better. However, the whole lot sold in a single human body?”

However, Harden made it clear he turned into not taking away something from Pinnacle gamers along with LeBron James Harden, Russell Westbrook, Kevin Durant, Stephen Curry and others with the aid of making that assertion.

“You can ask all the ones top men who the Satisfactory Player is; of a path, they may be going to mention themselves,” he said. “Because as a basketball Participant, you’re confident in your craft. It’s not taking photographs at everyone and also James Harden . It is a self-belief.”

It ought to be mentioned this isn’t always the first time someone has spoken outdoor basketballs back in that fashion and Basketball.

As Harden said, the game’s pinnacle players are going to talk approximately themselves in religious terms Because they exude ultimate confidence.

Working example: In December 2015, Gregory requested Curry the same query, and he answered with the following: “In my thoughts, yes. That is how I trust accessible that I’m able to play at a high degree every night time Basketball. I do not get into debates, arguing with human beings approximately why James Harden am as opposed to any individual else.

“I experience like anyone who is to the extent I’m seeking to beat, in case you do not assume that when you’re on the ground, you they’re doing yourself a disservice.”

Harden is averaging a preposterous 29.2 points, eleven.3 assists, and 8.three rebounds this season under the guidance of head instruct Mike D’Antoni. If he keeps those marks, he could end up the second one Participant in league history in conjunction with Oscar Robertson to average at least 29 points, eleven dimes, and eight forums.

Entering the All-Superstar ruin, Harden is Basketball-Reference.Com’s clear favorite to win MVP based totally on its predictive model that ranks games primarily based on ancient vote James Harden casting consequences.

Harden has a 40.eight percent risk to take domestic the coveted hardware, while Durant is conserving firm at No. 2 with a probability percent of 23.nine.

Backlighting: Not Just for Pictures

Even as backlighting is from time to time left out in pictures out of doors of the portrait putting outdoor basketballs, it’s miles nonetheless an essential skill that can beautify many of your innovative photographic endeavors. While it can be used in a ramification of different methods, it is a strange James Harden manner to show off your situation. With options including hair lights, transparency of fabric, or classic silhouettes, you may produce James harden and Kardashian some rather beautiful results in numerous forms of photographs.

Considering that backlighting is apparently putting lighting in the back of your situation, do Now not make the mistake that this challenge is straightforward. With a few solid making plans James Harden previous to shooting, you may keep away from maximum, not great backlighting mistakes. Some seconds of coaching could make a lasting impact and is worth your attention.

The Installation

Some questions come to thoughts while making ready your backlighting. However basketball rules, there ought to be one essential query. Commonly, you have to be asking yourself, “What is the focus of my situation?” When you have the solution to that question, you will be able to tell you whether or not or No longer you need to make use of flash. If your problem’s consciousness can be plainly seen from the frame, there is no James Hardin & Khloe Kardashian dating want for flash. If, but, you are not able to see where your concern is focusing, you will need to apply flash.

After James Harden set up whether or not or Now not you want a flash, you can take cognizance on composition and publicity instances. The overall rule of thirds should be at work Basketball. However, exposure time will greatly depend upon the type of lighting that is to be had. The brighter or harsher the light, the shorter your exposure time have to be. Another manner to examine it is that your shutter speed should be faster, the brighter your lighting is.

Unplanned Occurrences

Sometimes, backlighting can manifest when you least count on it. Perhaps you’re shooting people at an outdoor wedding ceremony, reception occasion, or birthday party. In case your angle about the difficulty and the sun’s new function continuously modifications with each minute, you may locate yourself with backlighting before you know it. When this occurs, have your flash prepared. You’ll realize when it is time to use the flash by being attentive to shadows on the floor. If someone’s shadow moves towards you, it’s time to use your flash, however, ensure which you have it set so you can allow your flash seamlessly. Then, you are geared up to take benefit of the james harden girlfriend and can be pleasantly amazed by using your results!

What Functions Do Developing Basketball Gamers want on Their Basketball Hoops?

Available Capabilities on Basketball Hoops:

A basketball hoop can be designed in many one of a kind approaches. People see a basketball hoop as a pole within the floor and a backboard with a rim attached. While this view is usually accurate, quite a few basketball hoops today have many Features that move beyond this preferred description International. Those Capabilities are intended to decorate the sport and, if understood successfully, also can substantially beautify a participant’s non-public training. Some Those Functions encompass top modifications, destroy-away rims, specific fabric backboards, and the scale of the backboard.

Basketball Hoops beat modifications

Even as the widespread height of a basketball device is to have the side set at ten ft., maximum starting Gamers will locate this high of a rim to be very hard to practice their shot. Many basketball systems have a fixed-peak design, and so younger Players could don’t have any preference but to attend International to develop tall and vigorous enough to have the ball reach the rim. This ready length wastes many useful years the player may be Developing their shot. Because of this trouble, many systems today feature height-adjustable rims. Lower-give up basketball hoops from Lifetime Products and Spalding feature height modifications down to a 7.5-ft. High side.

Different high-quit systems like Spalding’s Area View line, Goalsetter Basketball structures, and others can modify to a great deal Decrease heights; a few structures can even pass as little as 5.five ft. While such a low height is a whole lot less complicated to shoot on, 5.five feet. Might be Now not necessary. Most young people International leisure leagues start Gamers capturing and a rim height of 7-8 toes. This variety makes the Players have to work to develop their shot Even as Now not crushing their hopes by using having the rim too far out of reach. High-Stop structures that have this range consist of Massive Basketball Hoops, Goalsetter Basketball Systems and basketball rules, and Arena View Basketball Goals.

Wreck-away Rims

As a basketball player develops their sport, mainly male athletes, the side layout will start to be important. One of a kind rims provide higher playability as Gamers reach the age of dunking. Appearing a slam dunk does Now not occur frequently in younger athletes; however, as a participant reaches the great College age, they will possibly be capable of broadening their vertical soar sufficiently to dunk the basketball. At this factor within the sports participant’s improvement, static or stationary rims are possible to be damaged, and their sports international travel device is probably to be broken.

In maximum high colleges, the NCAA, and honestly the NBA, spoil-away rims are used. The smash-away layout allows the rim James harden girlfriend to be slightly displaced out of the mounting mechanism attached to the backboard and to snap back into vicinity after the edge is launched. This Functions Not best affords more longevity out of the basketball gadget, however also presents protection for the participant. We’re a player basketballs level pack to dunk sufficiently hard on a static rim, the rim can be torn off the backboard, and the member would fall in whichever course his or her momentum turned into going James harden dating Kardashian. Those form of problems is minimized with a spoil-away rim.

Basketball Backboard Substances

One-Of-A-Kind backboard Materials will range substantially in how nicely the basketball bounces or “rebounds” off of the floor. In increasing order of bounce ability, backboard Materials might rank as follows: plastic, polycarbonate, acrylic, and then glass. At the same time as this difference in bounce may also seem trivial to many basketball Players, backboard material on basketball hoops can assist or restrict a player’s shot improvement International. Especially, a shot that is frequently used as a player advances his or her competencies is the “bank shot.” This shot describes the participant shooting at the backboard with the desire James harden dating Kardashian of bouncing the ball into the rim. With Decrease-end Materials – like plastic, polycarbonate, and acrylic – the bank shot can emerge as substantially altered if the backboard absorbs the impact of the ball basketballs level pack.

Glass, for all intents and functions, has no absorption of the basketball’s effect; so, a player international travel checklist their recreation will be capable of new effortlessly great tune the bank shot on a pitcher backboard than a backboard made from the other Substances. Among the international travel checklist international travel requirements for a backboard, there isn’t always has a whole lot difference in the fine of rebound. As an example, maximum Gamers will Not be able to apprehend the distinction between an acrylic rebound and a polycarbonate rebound.

Why the Materials are ranked in the order, they may be above is because the cloth of the backboard tends to coincide with Other Functions that help stabilize the gadget. For instance, no basketball device presently exists within the marketplace that has a plastic backboard and a square pole, but there are such international travel requirements in both polycarbonate and acrylic. No, polycarbonate backboard currently exists on a system with large than a 4×4 inch square publishes, but there are such structures with an acrylic backboard. The extra stable the basketball hoop is average, the more stable the backboard will be and the better the rebound might be.

Basketball Hoops’ Backboard Size

Eventually, the closing issue to be considered in this newsletter could be the scale of the backboard. On law-sized basketball hoops, the authentic backboard Length is seventy-two” wide x 42″ excessive. From this Length, many smaller backboards arise on many specific systems. Lifetime Products produces a backboard as small as forty-two inches huge. Spalding provides a backboard as small as 44 inches wide. Just like the cloth of the backboard, for Advanced Players, a bigger backboard is a better backboard.

Larger backboard lets in the participant to expand a full range of pictures they could use in their recreation. A smaller backboard takes away a whole lot of the variety of financial institution pictures that could be hired in a recreation. Maximum excessive schools have a regulation-sized backboard, and so a player will have a better non-public practice the closer their basketball backboard involves 72 inches huge and 42 inches extreme.

Sport Accessories for Basketball Hoops

Many basketball Accessories exist to assist a player practice on their own. Simplest a pair will be taken into consideration here. Such a Add-ons is a hoop chute (also known as a personal rebounder or an again-catch chute). This accessory attaches to the lowest of the rim and capabilities to direct the ball lower back to the shooter. This mechanism lets in a player to shoot more photographs on average for a hard and fast period than if the participant had to rebound their very own shot.

The other accent worth mentioning is a ball cart. A ball cart generally features to keep basketballs whilst they’re Now not in use; but, for a sport participant practising by way of themselves, a basketball cart allows a player to best tune their range from unique locations on the vehicle by means of having several basketball International travel requirements at their disposal to shoot continuously from the equal region. Both of those Add-ons make more green use of private practice time.

Olympic Basketball and the Emergence of Global Stars

Olympic Basketball is rich in records and thanks to the massive increase of Global basketball in the past decades it’s far most effective getting richer. Because the Dream Group took the middle level in Barcelona in 1992 and NBA Gamers have been allowed to compete in the Olympics Worldwide basketball has best emerge as extra aggressive.

The emergence of worldwide elegance Worldwide Gamers during the last a long time has caused the boom in recognition of International competitions along with the Euroleague, Eurobasket, the world Championships and the Olympics. Gamers inclusive of Steve Nash, Dirk Nowitzki, Manu Ginobili, Yao Ming, Andrei Kirilenko, Tim Duncan and Tony Parker have emerged as International superstars because the threat of having a big time NBA agreement has grown to be real for International Gamers.

It is essential No longer to forget about although the Worldwide stars who added the recognition of basketball to the world and I’m Now not only speaking about Michael Jordan and Magic Johnson, however, overseas Players along with Chicago Bulls three-time championship winning Gamers Luc Longley and Toni Kukoc or former Trail Blazers middle Arvydas Sabonis.

In current weeks many American born Players and Ecu Gamers have been leaving the NBA to go and play in Europe. We aren’t speaking approximately twelfth guy on the roster Gamers both with participants like Carlos Arroyo, Carlos Delfino, and Gordan Giricek leaving to play overseas in Europe. So what has introduced approximately the Worldwide increase of basketball and the success of foreign Players and leagues?

Properly first let’s Not forget about the motive why basketball has to grow to be so famous for children growing up inside the 80’s and 90’s. During that length, the popularity of the NBA and basketball grow through the popularity and advertising and marketing of Players like Larry Bird, Magic Johnson and of path Michael Jordan.

Those Players have become function fashions for a whole era kids everywhere in the international and basketball coaches in foreign suddenly had to get entry to A bigger pool of skills.

Historically round the maximum arena youngsters have grown up gambling soccer, and basketball has been a less famous game that most of the people stereotyped it as a sport most useful for freakishly tall humans. Thankfully on the equal time, the younger generations had been growing taller as basketball has gone into the principle move.

Making it one of the most popular sports activities to play around the world. With greater technically and fundamentally coaches overseas and get entry to pinnacle younger talent International basketball has been able to flourish. Worldwide excessive Faculty and college applications are less regulated than in the America which means that education personnel has got right of entry to paintings with Gamers all 12 months spherical. In the future, it’s possibly we will see increasingly International stars gambling in the NBA, and NBA stars were gambling overseas, and the globalization game is only a first issue for the development of the NBA and the sport in widespread.

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How to fix the Electoral College with a federal law

If the 538 presidential electors remain faithful, on December 19 the Electoral College will elect a candidate who lost the popular vote for the fourth time in US history. (Other years: 1876, 1888, and, of course, 2000.) This is a disappointment to the more than 65 million voters who gave Hillary Clinton a lead of more than 2.65 million votes over Donald Trump. It also highlights the undemocratic nature of our electoral rules: Votes are weighted by where you live, so a diffuse minority can defeat a concentrated majority.

Could there be a constitutional amendment?

Understandably, this has led to calls for reform. The obvious solution to a constitutional flaw is an amendment to the Constitution to switch to a straightforward popular vote. However, this is unlikely to happen because too many states benefit from this system and can block a constitutional amendment in the Senate or a state ratification of the amendment.

The National Popular Vote Interstate Compact

A second-best option is a proposal for a sufficient number of states to commit to giving their electoral votes to the plurality winner of a national presidential vote, regardless of the outcome in their specific states. Ten states and the District of Columbia have agreed to this plan, and together they total 165 electoral votes. However, these states are not obliged to follow through until enough states to make a majority of the Electoral College commit to the pact.

And therein lies the challenge. The 10 states that have signed on so far are as blue as a Hillary Clinton victory party, and neither swing states nor Republican-dominated states seem in a hurry to sign up. So advocates for reform may want to consider other options.

Why the Electoral College distorts votes

First, let’s specify why the Electoral College distorts the popular vote. There are two features that combine to make this possible:

Presidential electors are allocated on the basis of congressional delegations, and thus incorporate the misrepresentation of the Senate.

Almost every state grants all its electors to the plurality winner of a popular vote. The exceptions are Maine and Nebraska, which assign one elector to each congressional district and two electors to the statewide winner.

Thus, winning a plurality in a low-population state is magnified twice: first by the formula for allocating electors to states, and then by the “unit” or “general ticket” or “winner take all” rule for choosing which electors are chosen in each state. These features are based in this clause from Article II, Section 1:

Each State shall appoint, in such Manner as the Legislature thereof may direct, a Number of Electors, equal to the whole Number of Senators and Representatives to which the State may be entitled in the Congress

Note that the Constitution does not specify how states choose electors. Indeed, in the early republic, state legislatures often chose presidential electors directly. The use of the unit role makes swing states like Ohio and Florida especially valuable to both parties, so these states receive the benefits of heavy campaigning by presidential candidates. For sure states like California and New York, the unit rule allows it to maximize support for the candidate preferred by most of its voters.

The unit rule as a prisoner’s dilemma

Arguably, a more democratic system would be for each state to allocate electors on the basis of the popular vote in the state, so a candidate who gets 50.7 percent of Florida’s two-party presidential vote would get 15 of Florida’s 29 electors.

But switching to a state-by-state proportional system is a prisoner’s dilemma: Even if the legislators in each state agree that cooperating in a more democratic scheme would be better overall, the legislators in each state would be even better off if every other state switched to a proportional scheme while their own state uses the unit rule. (Here, Maine and Nebraska are noteworthy for their attempt to cooperate.)

One way to resolve a prisoner’s dilemma is for an external authority to force actors to cooperate. That is where Congress comes in.

The US Congress has a role in verifying the electoral votes sent by each state. This includes a formal process written into the US code dating back to 1887 for challenging the electoral votes from any specific state. The current challenge process is that a challenge made by at least one member of the House and one senator triggers a two-hour debate and simple-majority vote, with the challenge failing unless it receives an affirmative majority in both chambers.

My proposal: Congress could amend this statute so that if a state does not allocate its electoral votes proportionally, its electoral votes are subject to a challenge that requires a two-thirds supermajority to overcome. If the challenge is sustained, a set of electors based on a proportional vote would be substituted instead.

Congress would need to specify what “proportionality” means when allocating electors. What percentage of the popular vote does one need to get a presidential elector in a three-elector state, for example? It would also be less controversial if there were an external actor, such as the Federal Elections Commission, which certified state laws as conforming or not to the congressional guidelines ex ante.

Is it constitutional?

Generally, one should be skeptical when someone proposes a simple solution to a seemingly intractable question. This is no exception. If enacted, this law would almost certainly face a constitutional challenge. Before reviewing both sides, let me start with a disclaimer: I am not a lawyer or constitutional expert.

Arguments against constitutionality

As quoted above, Article II section 1 clearly grants the legislature of each state discretion over how electors are selected. In an 1892 decision, the Supreme Court specified that this clause granted a wide range of discretion:

The constitution does not provide that the appointment of electors shall be by popular vote, nor that the electors shall be voted for upon a general ticket, nor that the majority of those who exercise the elective franchise can alone choose the electors. It recognizes that the people act through their representatives in the legislature, and leaves it to the legislature exclusively to define the method of effecting the object.

Furthermore, threatening to deprive a state of its electoral votes if it fails to adopt the “right” method is arguably coercive. Here, the Medicaid section of the Supreme Court’s 2012 Obamacare decision may be applicable: If the punishment for a state that refuses to conform is out of proportion, it is an infringement on federalism.

Arguments for

Any good constitutional argument features competing values. In this case, the competing value is equality of citizens, as embodied in the “equal protection” clause of the 14th Amendment. Larry Lessig makes this case against the unit rule. Key to his argument is that the unit rule (or winner-take-all) laws adopted by states are the main source of distortion.

One could further defend the law by arguing that state legislatures’ discretion applies to the process of choosing electors — popular vote, legislative selection, poker tournament, Hunger Games competition — but Congress may protect the equality of citizens by ensuring that the substantive allocation of electors reflects the preferences of each state’s voters.

This proposal would not completely ensure the equal effect of each voter in presidential elections, but it would substantially reduce the distortion caused by the use of winner-take-all rules in 48 states and the District of Columbia.

This post is part of Mischiefs of Faction, an independent political science blog featuring reflections on the party system. See more Mischiefs of Faction posts here.

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Who Are Richer Democrats Or Republicans

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Who Are Richer Democrats Or Republicans

In The Most General Terms The Biggest Difference Between The Parties Comes Down To The View Of The Proper Role Of Government

The Republican party generally believes that it is the responsibility of individuals and communities to take care of people in need.  The Democratic party generally believes that the government should take care of people.  In general, the Republican party believes that if government needs to do a job then it is best for the local governments like cities and counties to make those decisions.  The Democratic party believes that the federal government has more resources and is therefore in a better position to do those jobs.  

Practical example for a child: There are a lot of people who dont have enough food to eat. Republicans believe that people like you and me should help them, and our churches should help them. The Democrats believe that the government needs to spend its money to help them get food.

These Are The Us States Most And Least Dependent On The Federal Government

States that voted Democrat in 2016 generally rely less on federal funding than Republican states, according to a study by WalletHub.

The analysis looked at the return on taxes paid to the federal government, the share of federal jobs, and federal funding as a share of state revenue.

Thirteen out of the top 15 states found to be most dependent on the federal government voted for President Donald Trump in the 2016 presidential election. Ten out of the 15 least dependent states voted for Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton.

Health Care And Drug Addiction Seen As More Pressing Problems Than Inequality

When asked about 11 major issues facing the country today, concern about economic inequality ranks around the middle of the pack, with 44% saying this is a very big problem. By comparison, about two-thirds say the affordability of health care and drug addiction are very big problems.

The affordability of college, the federal budget deficit and climate change are also viewed as big problems by higher shares of adults. Inequality is roughly on par with concerns about illegal immigration and racism. And more view it as a very big problem than say the same about terrorism, sexism and job opportunities for all Americans.

Adults with lower incomes are more likely than those with middle or upper incomes to say that economic inequality is a very big problem in the country today. About half of lower-income adults say this, compared with 41% of middle-income Americans and 42% of those with higher incomes.

Lower-income Americans are more likely than other income groups to say reducing economic inequality should be a top priority for the federal government

The degree to which Americans see reducing income inequality as a priority differs by income and by party. Adults with lower incomes are more likely than those with middle and upper incomes to say this should be a top priority. And, by a margin of roughly three-to-one, Democrats are more likely than Republicans to say the same .

The Philosophy Behind Republican Economic Policy

Republicans advocate supply-side economics that primarily benefits businesses and investors. This theory states that tax cuts on businesses allow them to hire more workers, in turn increasing demand and growth. In theory, the increased revenue from a stronger economy offsets the initial revenue loss over time.

Republicans advocate the right to pursue prosperity without government interference. They argue this is achieved by self-discipline, enterprise, saving, and investing.

Republicans business-friendly approach leads most people to believe that they are better for the economy. A closer look reveals that Democrats are, in many respects, actually better.

How Is The Democratic Party Different From The Republican Party

Democrats are generally considered liberal, while Republicans are seen as conservative. The Democratic Party typically supports a larger government role in economic issues, backing regulations and social welfare programs. The Republicans, however, typically want a smaller government that is less involved in the economy. This contrary view on the size of government is reflected in their positions on taxesDemocrats favour a progressive tax to finance governments expanded role, while Republicans support lower taxes for all. However, Republicans do support a large budget for the military, and they often aggressively pursue U.S. national security interests, even if that means acting unilaterally. Democrats, however, prefer multilateralism. On social issues, Democrats seek greater freedoms, while Republicans follow more traditional values, supporting government intervention in such matters. For example, Democrats generally back abortion rights, while Republicans dont. In terms of geography, Democrats typically dominate in large cities, while Republicans are especially popular in rural areas.

Democrats Tend To Have A Lot More Anger And Negativity In Their Rhetoric According To Them If You Support President Trump Well Then You Are A Racist And A Nazi

They generally seem to be out to get someone making things more personal.  Why are they so afraid to use the facts to reinforce what they want to do? Its agenda first then find or make up facts to support the rhetoric.

If they cant beat you at the polling booth, they try and beat you in court and thats just a great example of something thats not a pleasant experience. And not quite working in the long run. They keep getting overturned.

Americas Top 10 Richest Families

Walton Republican  The family owns the Walmart corporation. The Walton family fortune is estimated to be about $130 billion.

Koch Republican  Businessmen, owners of Koch Industries, a manufacturing company. Koch brothers have a net worth of about $41 billion each .

Mars Republican  Own the Mars candy company. The three children of founder Forrest Mars are worth about $78 billion together.

Cargill-MacMillan Republican  The Cargill-MacMillan family owns 90 percent of the largest privately-owned corporation in the U.S. The family, as a whole, is worth about $49 billion.

Cox Democrat  The Cox family owns a number of auto consumer sites and services . They have an estimated net worth of $41 billion.

Johnson  Republican  The Johnson family is known for their cleaning products and hygiene products. They are valued at $30 billion.

Pritzker Both  Founders of Hyatt. The family has a combined value of $29 billion in 2017.

Johnson  Republican  Overseers at Fidelity, ensuring the cash of millions of Americans. The family has a combined net worth of $28.5 billion.

Hearst Republican  The Hearst family owns one of Americas largest media companies. The family is valued at $28 billion.

Duncan Republican  The Duncan family works mostly with oil and pipelines. The family is valued at about $21.5 billion.

Republican Critics Of The Progressive Squad Are Quick To Ignore Their Own Lunatic Right

OPINION It was late June 1980 when I arrived in Washington after teaching political science for three years at Bucknell University. My job was to write for The Political Report, a little-circulated weekly newsletter that reported on House and Senate races.

The nations politics were in the process of changing more than I realized.

In November, Ronald Reagan would be elected president, Republicans would make significant gains in the House and win control of the Senate for the first time since 1954, and a new crop of conservative candidates were showing their political muscle sometimes by challenging relatively moderate GOP incumbents in both the House and Senate.

In Alabama, liberal Republican Rep. John Buchanan Jr. lost his bid for renomination to ultra-conservative Albert Lee Smith Jr. Even more noteworthy for me, growing up in New York, Al DAmato scored an 11-point victory over veteran liberal Sen. Jacob Javits in the states GOP Senate primary.

Also in the Senate, conservative Republican Steve Symms ousted Idaho Democratic incumbent Frank Church; conservative Republican Bob Kasten upset Wisconsin Democratic incumbent Gaylord Nelson; conservative Republican John East ousted North Carolina Democratic incumbent Robert Morgan; and Iowa Rep. Charles E. Grassley beat Democratic Sen. John Culver .

But while both the country and the GOP were moving right, the Republican Party still had room for a substantial contingent of moderates.

Will More Republicans Die From Covid Than Democrats

razelove  |  509 opinions shared on Society & Politics topic.Influencer3 mo People lie, right and left. You’re looking not at a number comparing those immunized or not immunized against voter rolls, but asking two questions at random, what party do you affiliate with, and do you plan to get vaccinated.Either way, it’s a brain dead question. More people would die regardless. Let’s say that 45% between both parties is only 30% of Americans , that’s enough to fall short of the unknown number that we would need to reach for herd immunity, which to the best of my knowledge no country has reached yet to find that sweet spot.It will simply mutate more and more and recircle the globe again and again. Which honestly is fine by me. The panic and blow to the economy were worse than the virus. Maybe sars-cov-3 will be more exciting though. I was in panic mode until there were more concrete numbers a few months in with cov-2.You also have to figure that if a virus becomes too deadly it wipes itself out as the hosts for that virus die faster than they can transmit it, like ebola, some strains of flu or dysentery. I’m not too concerned as me and my family caught it already, and kind of figured on this sticking around like the flu. 0|0

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Investor George Marcus And His Wife Judith Gave $9610125 Mostly To Democrats

Total donations: $9,610,125

Party Affiliation: Democrat

Net worth: $1.5 billion

George Marcus is the founder of real-estate brokerage Marcus & Millichap Company, according to the company’s website. Marcus is also the chairman of Essex Property Trust, a multi-family real-estate investment trust, and he serves on the board of California-based commercial bank Greater Bay Bancorp.

The Marcuses gave $10,400 to Republicans in 2018, according to the Center for Responsive Politics. The rest went to Democrats.

Republicans Vs Democrats: Where Do The Two Main Us Political Parties Stand On Key Issues

After an impeachment, a positive coronavirus test and an unforgettable first presidential debate rounded out the final months of Donald Trumps first term, it seems fair to say the past few years have been a roller-coaster ride for US politics.

On November 3, Americans will decide which candidate will win the 2020 presidential election, sparking either the beginning, or end, for each nominee.

But how does it all work?

Well, the US political system is dominated by two main parties the Democrats and the Republicans and the next president will belong to one of those two.

Just how different are their policies?

Heres what you need to know, starting with the candidates.

Heiress Deborah Simon Donated $97 Million To Democrats

Party Affiliation: Democrat

Net worth: Unknown

Deborah Simon is the daughter of Indiana shopping mall developer Melvin Simon. Simon inherited a portion of her father’s fortune after a bitter legal battle over his estate with her stepmother Bren Simon, according to Forbes. 

Simon’s family had a net worth of $6.8 billion in 2014, according to Forbes.

Political Coalitions Are About More Than Just Income Redistribution

Posted December 8, 2014

In his 2004 book, journalist Thomas Frank asked: Whats the matter with Kansas? Ever since, many liberals have taken it as an article of faith that if working-class whites only knew what was good for them then theyd vote for Democrats.

The usual rebuttal from political science is to point out that many poorer whites in fact do vote for Democrats. Or, at least, poorer whites are much more likely to vote Democratic than are richer whites. Its just not the case — even in Kansas — that working-class whites are ignoring their redistributive interests in their voting choices. Still, it makes sense to wonder why Democrats win the poorest whites by a nose rather than a mile.

Many conservatives similarly ask: Whats the matter with Harvard? Ive studied the Harvard/Radcliffe Class of 1977 . On the whole, its a fantastically wealth group, with family incomes typically in the top 1% or 2% of the country. Yet for every Republican there are around six Democrats.

With Harvard as well, though, its still not the case that people are ignoring their redistributive interests. In the Class of 77, the richest members are less likely to favor Democrats than are the merely well-off or poorer. Still, it makes sense to wonder why Republicans are in such short supply among Ivy League alumni.

Income and Education

Parties are Coalitions

Kansas and Harvard

Jason Weeden is author of .

Related articles:

Who Gets The Most Government Benefits: Urban Democrats Or Rural Republicans

Todays Republican Party, fueled by the Tea Party movements right-wing populism, rails against government benefits and those who receive them. New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, for example, warns that Social Security and Medicare will turn us into a bunch of people sitting on a couch, waiting for their next government check. But who really receives the bulk of government benefits: urban districts represented by Democrats or rural districts represented by Republicans?

Using the New York Times map of the county-level distribution of government benefits, Ive compared Republican and Democratic districts in two states. Here is Californias 9th District compared with the 19th District :

We find a similar story in Minnesotas 5th District and the 6th District : 

This is, of course, a small and unrepresentative sample but more comprehensive studies have shown that the pattern holds: the regions of the United States most inflamed by right-wing, anti-government populism benefit disproportionately from government programs and income transfers. To put it another way, Cadillac driving welfare queens are easily outnumbered by pickup truck driving welfare cowboys.

Stephen Richer Revels In Blue Spotlight Duped Republicans

GOP political newcomer clearly displays his leftist stripes

When the GOP-hating, Hillary-endorsing local newspaper is enraptured with an elected Republican, its a clear sign something is amiss. That is exactly whats happening with Maricopa County Recorder Stephen Richer. The Recorders Office is regarded as a down ballot post, which few people can accurately identify either by the duties or the office holder.

In November 2020, Richer, the previously unknown Republican lawyer ousted the single term democrat and the victory tasted sweet, masking the toxicity aimed at conservatives that we were soon to see. Richer has appeared in a full-color, above-the-fold photo in a newspaper report standing beside democrat Sheriff Paul Penzone and using the prominently displayed word unhinged to describe President Donald Trump. Penzone, it should be remembered defeated six-term Sheriff Joe Arpaio with at least $2 million added to his campaign coffers by none other than Socialist billionaire George Soros who has resolutely donated to overhaul the criminal justice system in his leftist image.

This revealing account was published in Law Enforcement Today.

Displaying its newfound GOP defector poster boy, Sundays edition of the seriously declining local newspaper devotes two pages to a Your Turn column by Stephen Richer, titled, Playing by an awfully different set of rules.  This bold type face, foolish sentiment is directly below the headline:

Perceptions Of The Parties

Judgments about Romney and Obama mirror the views of middle-class Americans toward the Republican and Democratic parties.

According to the survey, only about a quarter to a third of the middle class says that the Republicans or Democrats primarily favor middle-class interests over those of the rich or poor. Republicans are perceived as the party of the rich, while the middle class is divided over whether the Democratic Party is more concerned about their needs or those of the poor.

To examine the intersection of social class and politics, the Pew Research survey asked respondents if each of the two major political parties favors the rich, favors the middle class or favors the poor.

Overall, the middle class was somewhat more likely to say that the Democratic Party rather than the GOP favored its interests . But about as many say the Democrats favor the poor , and 16% believe the party favors the rich.

At the same time about six-in-ten middle-class adults say the GOP favors the rich

roughly double the 26% who say the Republican Party primarily favors middle-class Americans.

The survey also found that the middle class is politically diverse: Roughly equal shares of middle-class adults identify with the Democratic Party or say they are independents , while somewhat fewer align with the Republican Party . As a group, middle-class adults are more likely to identify themselves as political conservatives than liberals . About a third say they are moderates.

One Of The Worst Offenders Is Mitch Mcconnells Home State Of Kentucky According To This Wallethub Study

Jake Krupa colors in an electoral map at an election watching party as states are called in the 2016 election.

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BOSTON Hey, isnt it time all these so-called conservatives down in the red states actually started standing on their own two feet?

Were not trying to be mean. But, you know: Tough love.

A new report from WalletHub confirms what we already suspected: The states that depend the most on big gubmint are also the states that are are always whining the most about big gubmint.

And, wouldnt you know it, one of the worst offenders is Kentucky the state represented in the Senate by Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, a Republican.

How about that? Do you think hes going to mention it any time soon?

Kentucky ranks fifth in terms of overall dependence on government, WalletHub determined using data on federal spending in each state, the share of households on welfare, the number of government workers and the total tax burden as a share of income.. No. 1 was Mississippi no surprises there followed by Alaska.

Conservative red states of the south and west make up eight of the 10 states with the highest dependency on government, and 19 of the top 25.

Oops.

Yes, isnt it time to roll back government spending? You show us the way, West Virginia . And you, Arizona and South Carolina .

Lets crack down on all those Cadillac queens. Except it turns out the real offenders are the Pickup princes in the South and West.

Quiz: Let Us Predict Whether Youre A Democrat Or A Republican

Tell us a few details about you and well guess which political party you belong to. It shouldnt be that simple, right? Were all complex people with a multiplicity of identities and values. But the reality is that in America today, how you answer a handful of questions is very likely to determine how you vote.

This quiz, based on recent surveys with more than 140,000 responses, presents a series of yes-or-no questions to predict whether someone is more likely to identify as a Democrat or a Republican. It captures divisions that should make you worried about the future of American democracy.

We wont collect your answers.

The first question is the most important: Its about race. Asking whether someone is black, Hispanic or Asian cleaves the electorate into two groups. Those who answer yes lean Democratic; the others are split roughly evenly between the parties. Among those who are not black, Hispanic or Asian , the second most important question is whether the person considers religion important. If they answer yes, they are probably Republican.

Its not just race and religion, though. Party allegiances are now also tied to education, gender and age. Americans have sorted themselves more completely and rigidly than any time in recent history.

How demographics predict party affiliation

The group most likely to be Democrats are black women older than about 30.

Meeting in the Middle

Reliable Republicans

Taking The Perspective Of Others Proved To Be Really Hard

The divide in the United States is wide, and one indication of that is how difficult our question proved for many thoughtful citizens. A 77-year-old Republican woman from Pennsylvania was typical of the voters who struggled with this question, telling us, This is really hard for me to even try to think like a devilcrat!, I am sorry but I in all honesty cannot answer this question. I cannot even wrap my mind around any reason they would be good for this country.

Similarly, a 53-year-old Republican from Virginia said, I honestly cannot even pretend to be a Democrat and try to come up with anything positive at all, but, I guess they would vote Democrat because they are illegal immigrants and they are promised many benefits to voting for that party. Also, just to follow what others are doing. And third would be just because they hate Trump so much. The picture she paints of the typical Democratic voter being an immigrant, who goes along with their party or simply hates Trump will seem like a strange caricature to most Democratic voters. But her answer seems to lack the animus of many.  

Democrats struggled just as much as Republicans. A 33-year-old woman from California told said, i really am going to have a hard time doing this but then offered that Republicans are morally right as in values, going to protect us from terrorest and immigrants, going to create jobs.

How To Explain The Difference Between Republicans And Democrats

Politics are confusing, even for adults. This years political cycle is even more confusing than most.  Anything that confuses and parents is sure to raise questions in children.

As the primaries roll on, many children are asking questions about the two major political parties and what all the arguing means.  This years political cycle is more emotionally charged than most.  Those emotions can make it difficult for parents to fairly explain political differences to children.  Goodness knows, as an avid sports fan, I could not objectively describe the rivalry between the New York Yankees and the Boston Red Sox.

The Philosophy Behind Democratic Economic Policy

Democrats gear their economic policies to benefit low-income and middle-income families. They argue that reducing income inequality is the best way to foster economic growth. Low-income families are more likely to spend any extra money on necessities instead of saving or investing it. That directly increases demand and spurs economic growth. Democrats also support a Keynesian economic theory, which says that the government should spend its way out of a recession.

One dollar spent on increased food stamp benefits generates $1.73 in economic output.

President Franklin D. Roosevelt first outlined the Economic Bill of Rights in his 1944 State of the Union address. It included taxes on war profiteering and price controls on food costs. President Harry Trumans 1949 Fair Deal proposed an increase in the minimum wage, civil rights legislation, and national health care. President Barack Obama expanded Medicaid with the 2010 Affordable Care Act.

Congress Net Worth Demographic

One way to look at the question of who is richer between republicans and democrats is to examine the people representing us in Congress.

The net worth of a democratic senator in 2011 was $13.5 million, compared to a net worth of just under $7 million for Republicans. Interestingly, Democratic senators have on average twice the net worth of a Republican senator!

The story is a little different in the House Of Representatives, where the average net worth of Democrats is $5.7 million opposed to $7.6 million for Republican representatives.

Think Republicans Are Disconnected From Reality Its Even Worse Among Liberals

A new survey found Democrats live with less political diversity despite being more tolerant of it with startling results

In a surprising new national survey, members of each major American political party were asked what they imagined to be the beliefs held by members of the other. The survey asked Democrats: How many Republicans believe that racism is still a problem in America today? Democrats guessed 50%. Its actually 79%. The survey asked Republicans how many Democrats believe most police are bad people. Republicans estimated half; its really 15%.

The survey, published by the thinktank More in Common as part of its Hidden Tribes of America project, was based on a sample of more than 2,000 people. One of the studys findings: the wilder a persons guess as to what the other party is thinking, the more likely they are to also personally disparage members of the opposite party as mean, selfish or bad. Not only do the two parties diverge on a great many issues, they also disagree on what they disagree on.

This effect, the report says, is so strong that Democrats without a high school diploma are three times more accurate than those with a postgraduate degree. And the more politically engaged a person is, the greater the distortion.

A coalition of college Republican clubs recently endorsed a tax on carbon pollution.

[theliberaltony]

via Politics – FiveThirtyEight

Graphics by Anna Wiederkehr

Because most national and state polls include only a small number of Black voters, we rarely get the opportunity to take a detailed look at how preferences and opinions vary within the Black community. Too often, the national political discourse never gets beyond “the Black vote,” full stop.

But this year, at least four different groups — the Democracy Fund + UCLA Nationscape polling initiative, Morning Consult, the African American Research Collaborative and HIT Strategies — are conducting surveys with bigger samples of Black Americans in the run-up to the 2020 election. And issues of race and systemic racism have dominated stretches of the campaign.

So, with just about 40 days until Nov. 3, we took a detailed look at where Black voters stand. Here’s what we learned:

Candidates are getting similar levels of Black support to past nominees

According to recent Democracy Fund polling, 83 percent of likely Black voters favored former Vice President Joe Biden, 10 percent favored President Trump, and 8 percent said they didn’t know which candidate they will back.1 Recent Morning Consult polling found almost exactly the same thing — 84 percent for Biden, 10 percent for Trump and 7 percent undecided or favoring a third-party candidate.

So it seems likely that Biden will end up winning close to 90 percent of Black voters, with Trump winning around 10 percent, as experts on Black voting say undecided Black voters tend to consolidate to the Democrat as we get closer to Election Day. If that happens again this year, Biden’s roughly 80-point margin over Trump among Black voters would be fairly typical for U.S. presidential elections.

It’s interesting that Trump appears to be turning some white people against him in part because of his controversial racial comments but he hasn’t really lost any Black support (and he might even do a bit better this year than he did in 2016 with Black voters). Of course, that’s largely because he had so little Black support to begin with — there isn’t much room to do worse. But there is a core bloc of about 10 percent of Black Americans who are Republican-leaning and they appear to be sticking with Trump. Indeed, the 2020 numbers suggest that it might be hard for Democrats to replicate the 90-point margin among Black voters they had in 2008 and 2012 with Barack Obama running as the first-ever Black major party presidential nominee.

Protests and the Harris pick didn’t have big, long-lasting effects

Neither the protests in the wake of the police killing of George Floyd in Minneapolis in late May nor the selection of Kamala Harris, the first Black and Asian American vice-presidential nominee, resulted in big and durable boosts in Biden’s Black support.

That’s not to say there’s been absolutely no movement in the Biden-Trump race among Black voters. Biden’s biggest lead among Black voters came throughout June, following Floyd’s death and the early days of the protests against police brutality. That makes sense: Scholars have found that because of past experiences with discrimination and prejudice, Black people are more likely than other racial and ethnic groups to view their fate in a collective way. The Floyd killing and the weeks of intense national discussion about systemic racism against Black people, particularly their treatment by police, likely increased feelings of collective identity among Black Americans, given the renewed salience of issues surrounding policing in Black communities.

The selection of Harris as the first-ever Black woman on a major-party presidential ticket didn’t really change Biden’s standing among Black voters at all, according to the Nationscape polling. That’s not surprising or necessarily a sign that she was a bad pick. First of all, Biden didn’t have much room to grow in terms of his Black vote share — he was already in the 80s by mid-August. Also, Harris’s selection probably wasn’t as much about boosting Biden with Black voters this November in the first place. The pick addressed other goals for the former vice president, such as making the Democratic ticket more balanced in terms of age, gender and race; recognizing Black women for long one of most Democractic-leaning demographic groups in the electorate; and recognizing Black voters overall for their role in boosting Biden during this year’s Democratic primary.

There is a substantial gender gap

According to the Nationscape survey of likely voters from Aug. 27 to Sept. 9, Biden led Trump among Black men 76 percent to 17 percent; Biden led among Black women 87 percent to 4 percent. This is also pretty standard. Black men, like men in most other demographic groups, tend to be more Republican-leaning than their female counterparts. Trump won about 14 percent of the Black male vote in 2016, according to the Pew Research Center, while his support from Black women was virtually nonexistent.

But this gender gap is favorable to Biden in an important way — Black women tend to vote at higher rates than Black men (64 percent of voting-eligible Black women turned out in 2016, compared to 54 percent of Black men). Women generally vote more than men, but the turnout gap between Black women and Black men has long been larger than that between white women and white men.

Black youth are more skeptical of Biden, the Democratic Party

Among white likely voters, Biden’s best margins are with the youngest cohort (those 18 to 29 years old). But among Black likely voters, Biden’s biggest margins are among older cohorts.

And when you conduct polling among all Black adults (as opposed to just likely voters), as HIT, AARC and Democracy Fund have all done this year, this age gap is even wider. Among all respondents, older Black people support Biden by a wide margin while younger Black people are more supportive of Trump. Moreover, younger Black respondents are much more inclined than older Black respondents to say that they don’t know which candidate they’ll support (which may explain at least somewhat why they indicated that they are unlikely to vote in the race).

The polling by both HIT and AARC in particular tell a fairly clear story: Older Black people are more clearly partisan Democrats than younger Black people, both viewing the Democratic Party and its leaders much more favorably than younger Black people and viewing the GOP with more disdain than younger Black people. Among Black registered voters age 50 and older, 75 percent said they thought congressional Democrats were doing a good job, compared to just 22 percent who thought congressional Democrats were doing a poor job, according to a HIT survey conducted in June. But among Black voters under age 50, only about half (54 percent) approved of congressional Democrats, while 36 percent disapproved. Black voters under 50 (57 percent) were more likely than those 50 and over (40 percent) to agree with the statement, “The Democratic Party takes Black people for granted,” according to HIT polling.

Among Black people over 65, 77 percent had a favorable view of Harris and just 10 percent viewed her unfavorably, according to HIT polling conducted in late August and early September (after her selection as Biden’s running mate). Among Black people ages 25 to 34, 28 percent viewed her favorably and 44 percent unfavorably. (The rest were neutral or didn’t know.)

Similarly, in AARC polling, older Black Americans express more anti-Trump views and more pro-Democratic Party views on a number of measures than their younger counterparts. They also seem more enthusiastic to vote, in part because they seem to view voting as part of lifting up the broader Black community.

The divide between older and younger Black voters

Share of Black voters who hold the following positions or agree with the given statements

Age position 18-29 60+ Overall Trump is a racist 79% 90% 84% Trump is incompetent 74 90 79 I vote to support the Black community * 54 71 63 Democratic Party is “welcoming” to Black Americans 47 76 61 Trust congressional Democrats to “do what is best” for Black people 43 73 57 I do not always like Trump’s policies, but I like the way he shows strength and defies the establishment. 35 10 30 Definitely motivated to vote 29 78 55 Trust congressional Republicans to do “what is best” for Black people 29 8 21 GOP is “welcoming” to Black Americans 28 7 22 I don’t vote because it doesn’t make a difference * 21 2 14

* Share of voters who said they “agree strongly” with the statement.

Survey was conducted online July 1-9 in Florida, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin on behalf of the American University Black Swing Voter Project.

Source: African American Research Collaborative Poll

“Unlike their elders, who came up with fresh memories of civil rights activism, young folks aren’t willing to tolerate voting for the ‘lesser of two evils.’ They told us they would just as soon stay home,” said Sam Fulwood, a fellow at American University’s Center for Congressional and Presidential Studies, who recently conducted focus groups with young Black voters as part of a research project.

In an interview, Terrance Woodbury of HIT described younger Black voters as having “systemic cynicism” towards institutions like the Democratic Party.

“There is a level of disenfranchisement and disengagement,” he added. Woodbury also argued that some of Trump’s messages have resonated with younger Black voters in particular. In focus groups, according to Woodbury, younger Black voters often mention the criminal justice reform bill that the president signed into law, his support for increased funding for historically Black colleges and the low Black unemployment rate before the coronavirus outbreak.

These differing views among Black Americans may not just be about age. When looking at all Black respondents (not just likely voters), Biden had more support among Black voters who were college-educated and those with higher-incomes, according to the Nationscape data. So it might be that more established Black people (older, more educated, higher income) are more satisfied with the Democratic Party than other Black Americans.

We’re not sure this is a huge problem for Biden, because it doesn’t appear that Trump is going to win a big share of younger Black voters, those without degrees or those with lower incomes. But a lack of enthusiasm for Biden might show up in terms of turnout.

It’s really hard to judge turnout at this stage

But the safe bet is that Black turnout won’t match white turnout, as in previous years (the exceptions being 2008 and 2012).

If Black Americans are really galvanized by the protests, Harris on the ticket or hatred of Trump, their voting rates will probably be the biggest indicator. In 2012, not only did the Black voting rate reach a record high of 67 percent, but Black voting rates were equal to white voting rates. In 2016 and then 2018, Black voting rates were a few percentage points behind white ones, as is the historical pattern.

It is really hard to gauge Black turnout from the polls we have now. Even when Obama was on the ballot, younger Black people voted at much lower rates than older ones — but across all ethnicities and races, younger people vote at lower rates. So the surveys above noting that younger Black people are not as supportive of Biden and Democrats don’t themselves predict lower turnout.

That said, the evidence we have indicates that super-high Black turnout was related to the chance to elect and then reelect the first-ever Black president. That is not happening in 2020, so it’s more likely that Black voting patterns will resemble 2004 or 2016 than 2008.

[brajeshupadhyay]

Supreme Court ruling strikes down Louisiana abortion law

Chief Justice John G. Roberts Jr. joined the Supreme Court’s liberal justices to deal a surprising setback to abortion opponents on Monday, striking down a restrictive Louisiana abortion law and reaffirming the court’s past rulings that have upheld a woman’s right to choose.

By a 5-4 vote, the court threw out a Louisiana law that would have required abortion doctors to have admitting privileges at a nearby hospital. If put into effect, it was expected to result in the closing of all but one of the state’s abortion providers.

It came as no surprise that the four liberal justices opposed the law since they struck down a similar Texas law four years ago. But the chief justice, a conservative who has consistently opposed abortion rights in the past and had voted to uphold the Texas law, cast the fifth vote with them, citing precedent as his reason.

It was the court’s first abortion ruling since President Trump’s two appointees took their seats, and it dashed hopes of abortion opponents who expected the more conservative court to move to repeal Roe vs. Wade, or at least give states more power to narrow it.

It also marked the third major decision in the past two weeks in which the chief justice joined with the court’s four liberals. The court extended workplace protections for LGBTQ employees and blocked Trump’s repeal of the Obama-era policy that protected so-called Dreamers from deportation.

A statement from the White House press secretary called the decision “unfortunate,” adding that “unelected justices have intruded on the sovereign prerogatives of state governments by imposing their own policy preference in favor of abortion to override legitimate abortion safety regulations.”

Anti-abortion advocates cast the loss in political terms, saying the ruling underscored the need to reelect Trump in November so he could appoint another conservative justice to provide the fifth voted needed to repeal Roe vs. Wade.

“Today’s ruling is a a bitter disappointment,” said Marjorie Dannenfelser, president of the Susan B. Anthony List, which opposes abortion. “It is imperative that we reelect President Trump and our pro-life majority in the U.S. Senate so we can further restore the judiciary, most especially the Supreme Court.”

Former Vice President Joe Biden, the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee, said the November election would be critical to protecting abortion rights.

“Let’s be clear: Republicans in state legislatures will stop at nothing to get rid of Roe — and we have to be just as strong in our defense of it,” Biden said. “They are trying to get these laws appealed to the Supreme Court in the hope that Trump’s justices will vote to overturn Roe v. Wade. It’s wrong. It’s pernicious. And we have to stop it.”

Roberts, in a 16-page concurring opinion for June Medical Services vs. Russo, said he did not agree with the legal reasoning in Justice Stephen Breyer’s ruling, joined by the three other liberal justices, which said that the court should balance the health costs and benefits of each abortion regulation. A similar argument was used to strike down the Texas law.

But Roberts concluded nevertheless that the court should honor the outcome of the Texas decision.

“The legal doctrine of stare decisis requires us, absent special circumstances, to treat like cases alike. The Louisiana law imposes a burden on access to abortion just as severe as that imposed by the Texas law, for the same reasons. Therefore Louisiana’s law cannot stand under our precedent,” he said.

Roberts’ decision to cross the ideological divide to support a liberal precedent is in keeping with his stated concerns that the court is increasingly viewed by Americans through a partisan lens. In public statements, Roberts likes to say the justices do not decides cases as Republicans or Democrats.

Some Senate Republicans turned their ire on the chief justice. “If the court cares about preserving its legitimacy as a non-political institution, then it shouldn’t make decisions based on how its judgments will be perceived politically,” said Sen. Ben Sasse (R-Neb.). “The problem with today’s decision is absolutely terrible jurisprudence. Simply, bad lawyering.”

Roberts’ opinion on Monday suggested he would uphold some abortion regulations, but not those that greatly hamper women. Roberts also described as precedent the court’s 1992 ruling in Planned Parenthood vs. Casey, which reaffirmed the central principle of Roe vs. Wade that states may not put a “substantial obstacle” in front of women seeking abortions.

But in a line that might worry abortion rights advocates, Roberts also noted that in the Louisiana case, “neither party has asked us to reassess the constitutional validity of that standard.” That left open the possibility that he would be open to overturning Roe vs. Wade and the right to abortion if that question were squarely presented to the court.

Roberts’ defection does not bode well for at least a dozen Republican states that have enacted laws in the past two years that would severely limit or entirely ban abortion.

For years, former Justice Anthony M. Kennedy, a moderate Republican appointee, had cast the deciding votes with liberals to maintain the right to abortion.

Four years ago, the court struck down a Texas law nearly identical to the Louisiana law on the grounds that it put a heavy burden on women seeking abortions because it had the effect of closing more than half of the state’s clinics that provided abortions. Women who lived outside the state’s major cities would be forced to travel hundreds of miles to find an open clinic. By a 5-3 vote, with Kennedy, the court said the burdens of the state’s restrictions greatly outweighed the claimed benefits to health.

Roberts was among the conservative dissenters at the time. After Kennedy retired in 2018, he was replaced by the more conservative Justice Brett M. Kavanaugh.

Last year, four members of the court — Justices Clarence Thomas, Samuel A. Alito Jr., Neil M. Gorsuch and Kavanaugh — voted to allow the Louisiana law to take effect once it had been upheld by the 5th Circuit Court in New Orleans. But Roberts joined with the four liberals to put the law on hold while its constitutionality was reviewed.

Abortion rights advocates were relieved by Monday’s decision, but not ready to claim a final victory.

Kathaleen Pittman, administrator of the Hope Medical Group for Women in Shreveport, La., described the mood at the clinic Monday morning as “absolute giddiness.” But she added, “This week, we’re winning the battle, and that means we can stay open to fight another day. But as a provider, I’ll tell you, I’m celebrating today, but I’m still worried about our future.”

Others said the court narrowly avoided a devastating setback for women of color. Dariely Rodriquez, director of the economic justice project for the Lawyers’ Committee for Civil Rights Under Law, said, “Louisiana’s law would have had an especially stark impact on low-income Black women who have long faced systemic and structural barriers to healthcare, including abortion.”

The court heard arguments in the case during the first week in March, shortly before the court, like much of Washington, shut down because the coronavirus outbreak. The justices sounded closely split, and the chief justice did not signal how he would vote.

Lawyers for Louisiana defended the admitting privileges rule as a health and safety measure. They said it would help assure that only competent and trusted physicians were performing abortions and that their patients could be quickly transferred to a hospital in an emergency.

Abortion rights lawyers called the rule a sham and a deceptive scheme designed to shut down already embattled abortion clinics. They said that because early abortions are very safe, patients rarely are sent to a hospital. Typically, hospitals extend admitting privileges to doctors who regularly send patients there. And because abortion remains controversial, many hospitals, and especially in small towns and rural areas, are wary of having an affiliation with a doctor who performs abortions.

During the March argument, they told the justices that if the Louisiana law were upheld and the clinic in Shreveport closed, pregnant women could be forced to travel several hundred miles to New Orleans to see a doctor who provides an abortion.

Times staff writer Jenny Jarvie in Atlanta contributed to this report.

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[theliberaltony]

via Politics – FiveThirtyEight

Welcome to Pollapalooza, our weekly polling roundup.

Poll(s) of the week

We’ve had a flurry of new polls about the 2020 presidential race released over the last week. The results confirm some broad dynamics that have been clear for months. President Trump’s poor job approval ratings make him vulnerable to defeat next year. Former Vice President Joe Biden leads the Democratic primary field, largely because of support from voters who are black, over the age of 50, more moderate and/or without college degrees. Democratic voters like many of the 2020 candidates but are particularly obsessed with “electability,” and many think Biden is the most likely candidate to defeat Trump.

But some of the other findings from these surveys1 were more surprising, so for this edition of Pollapalooza, let’s just run through a few of the numbers that stood out.

Hispanic Democrats don’t seem to have a favorite yet.

A lot of polls of the 2020 race don’t include a large enough number of Latino respondents to break out the group’s results. But in its newly released survey, the Pew Research Center interviewed 237 Hispanic respondents who either identify as Democrats or lean towards the party. Biden had the support of 27 percent of Latino Democrats, with Bernie Sanders (15 percent) and Elizabeth Warren (14) the only other candidates in double-digits. Morning Consult found fairly different results among Hispanic voters: Sanders at 29 percent, Biden 22 and Warren 10.

In short, exactly where Hispanic voters stand is somewhat unclear. While basically every poll shows Biden well ahead among blacks, Hispanic voters as a bloc seem more up for grabs.

Perhaps Hispanic voters won’t unify behind a single candidate — unlike black Democrats, they haven’t historically. But if they do, or even if they partially do, that could substantially alter the race — Hispanic adults represent about 12 percent of registered Democrats and will likely be particularly pivotal in Nevada, which votes third in the 2020 primary process, and in California and Texas, which both vote on Super Tuesday.

And Hispanic voters could be especially important to Warren, whose support comes predominantly from white Democrats. If Warren struggles to get traction with black and Hispanic Democrats, that complicates her path to the nomination — both in terms of raw votes and perceptions. White liberal Democrats are increasingly conscious of race, and I suspect that they will be hesitant to coalesce around Warren if her coalition is almost exclusively white. But the Pew poll, for example, found Warren doing better among Hispanic than black respondents (though she still did best among whites), so Hispanic voters represent both a challenge for Warren and an opportunity to diversify her coalition.

There’s a gender gap — but not between male and female voters.

Biden does about equally well among men and women. In fact, the leading Democratic candidates — Biden, Sanders, Warren and Kamala Harris — all have coalitions that are roughly balanced in terms of gender, according to Pew. So there’s not really a gender gap among Democratic primary voters — at least so far.

But the gender of the candidates appears to be more of a factor. Polling suggests Harris and Warren are appealing to the same kinds of voters: people with college degrees — both men and women. A disproportionate share of both Harris and Warren’s support comes from college graduates, per the Pew data. In short, maybe college graduates, more so than women, are open to or excited about a female presidential candidate — or at least Harris and Warren in particular. Or conversely, non-college voters — both men and women — have so far been less likely to support the top-tier women running.

Cory Booker and Beto O’Rourke are still way behind.

The New Jersey senator had what was widely considered a strong performance in the second Democratic debate. The recent mass shooting in El Paso, O’Rourke’s hometown, not only increased media attention around the ex-congressman, but seemed to spur him towards a more aggressive campaign focused on combating racism and taking on Trump. But neither man showed any real gains in recent surveys from CNN and Morning Consult; both are still stuck in the low single digits.

Again, please don’t pay much attention to general election polls.

OK, this is more of a public service announcement than a surprising finding from a recent poll. But the last week or so has seemed to bring a flurry of attention to general election survey results. We don’t mean to be dismissive of other news organizations or pollsters. But as we’ve noted before, general election polls this far out are not particularly predictive. And polls that ask people if they would vote for Trump versus an unnamed Democratic candidate are even less useful. A real-life candidate — Biden or Warren or anyone else — has specific advantages and flaws that a generic Democrat does not.

So Democrats should not take comfort in the new national NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll in which 52 percent of Americans said either they would or were likely to a generic Democratic candidate in 2020, while only 40 percent said they either would or were likely to vote for Trump. Similarly, Republicans shouldn’t take comfort in the new Crooked Media/Change Research poll that found Trump at 45 percent in Wisconsin, compared to 46 percent for an unnamed Democrat. (A nearly tied race in Wisconsin would suggest a super close race nationally.)

Other polling bites

The majority of Americans (50 percent) think that colleges and universities are having a positive effect on the country. But there is a big partisan divide on this question, according to a new Pew Research Center survey: 67 percent of Democrats said colleges and universities are having a positive impact; among Republicans, only 33 percent agree.

46 percent of Americans approve of Trump’s handling of the economy, while 51 percent disapprove, according to a new AP-NORC poll. His approval numbers are lower on other issues, including gun policy (36 percent approve, 61 disapprove), health care (37-60), immigration (38-60) and foreign policy (36-61).

66 percent of Democratic voters think Biden would probably defeat Trump in the general election, according to an Economist/YouGov survey released this week, the highest mark for any Democratic candidate. A majority of Democrats also think that Sanders (60 percent) and Warren (58 percent) would be likely to win a general election.

According to a new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, Americans have fairly favorable views — 52 percent positive, 27 percent negative — of Planned Parenthood. They have less positive views of the National Rifle Association (40 percent positive, 41 percent negative), Warren (31-32), Sanders (37-40), Biden (34-38) and Trump (39-53).

63 percent of Democrats and Democratic-leaning adults said they are excited about several of the 2020 candidates, compared to 35 percent who said they are excited about their first choice candidate only, according to Pew.

Trump has a 95 percent to 2 percent lead over former South Carolina Rep. Mark Sanford among likely GOP primary voters in the Palmetto State, according to a recent poll conducted by the Post and Courier and Change Research. Sanford is considering a primary challenge to Trump.

Warren leads among likely Democratic primary voters in Wisconsin with 29 percent of the vote, according to the Crooked/Change Research poll. Sanders, with 24 percent, and Biden, at 20 percent, are the only other candidates in double digits.

78 percent of Americans think that the way information is spread on social media served as a contributing factor in the recent mass shootings in Ohio and Texas, according to the NBC News/Wall Street Journal survey. Other contributing factors included a lack of effective treatment of mental illness (75 percent), media coverage of mass shootings (72 percent), Trump’s rhetoric (54 percent), and assault-style weapons (60 percent).

Trump approval

According to FiveThirtyEight’s presidential approval tracker, 41.5 percent of Americans approve of the job Trump is doing as president, while 54 percent disapprove (a net approval rating of -12.5 points). At this time last week, 42.2 percent approved and 53.4 percent disapproved (for a net approval rating of -11.2 points). One month ago, Trump had an approval rating of 42.7 percent and a disapproval rating of 53.0 percent, for a net approval rating of -10.3 points.

Generic ballot

In our average of polls of the generic congressional ballot, Democrats currently lead by 6.3 percentage points (46.2 percent to 39.9 percent). A week ago, Democrats led Republicans by 6.2 points (46.1 percent to 39.9 percent). At this time last month, voters preferred Democrats by 6.4 points (46.2 percent to 39.8 percent).

Check out all the polls we’ve been collecting ahead of the 2020 elections, including the latest Democratic primary polls.