#but i am near the end of ep 104 & just thinking

[xfindingtrouble]

after percy meets pelor, he cries. in private, of course - it's not something he wants to do in the face of the potential end of the world. there is more to worry about than his own baggage, there is more to focus on than his Beef with the almighty. but there is something surreal about facing the dawnfather.

though percy claims he's never prayed much [ & i think, for the most part that's true ] I'm sure he has when things were darkest. he probably prayed that someone would come save & cass, that they would both survive it, that he may be forgiven by the end of it all... but there was never an answer. in fact, the only reason they got whitestone back at all was because they did it them damn selves. sarenrae had a hand in it via pike but the dawnfather didn't help them.

i'm sure in hindsight, he'd see that pelor had a hand in saving his people. pelor wasn't absent, not by any means, vox machina cold just handle their own problems. he & cass survived it on their own, they grow on their own terms, but not without suffering. but there were other lives in the balance! but percy is just a single perspective in the greater picture. he is mortal, he is selfish, he is petty [ i say with love ] & as much as he likes to think he knows it all, he doesn't. he can't.

but there is still this resentment that lingers forever. because percy asked for help when he needed it most & was failed by the gods again & again. i think this is also partially because the gods work with people who are willing to meet them halfway & percy spent so long looking for a sign that he never took that leap of faith necessary? in fact, Cassandra was the one who finally trusted the gods with her fate & then paid a very expensive price for it.

but anyways there is something so visceral about facing any god, let alone the one you begged for mercy & never delivered it. the god who knows who they are, greets them as vox machina. proof that he'd been paying attention. also sarenrae saying that she hears every prayer is like salt in the wound for percy because it leaves this question of what would happen if he had prayed to her? what would have been different? would he be kinder, better, more consistent? he'll never know! it's soo much worse when pelor claims that whitestone is under his watch & keep. it's honest, yes, but it's so personal.

of course he would never want to change the journey he's taken to try & heal but i feel like it poses this question of ' what if i didn't have to take that journey at all ' which of course he would have... but percy deals in a lot of extremes, especially revolving around guilt & sense of self. he wants to say he wouldn't change anything he'd been through but there's so much he would undo if he had the chance. he's plagued by regret his whole life, he just learns how to manage it. though the feeling lingers, he learns how to forgive himself & the person that was even he wished he never had to become that person to survive.

also it's worth noting that this is like the straw that breaks the camels back. he'd just fought & killed delilah, vax died & came back to life, he'd faced another god only hours before. what they're dealing with is bigger than any single perspective.

he thought that maybe his role as a hero was over, though he knew better. all while he wonders in the back of his head whether or not whitestone is safe & when vecna is going to target it because he knows it's coming. there wouldnt be a ziggeraut under his home if it wasn't. delilah would have never chosen whitestone as her base of operations if it wasn't important. There would be a big, ugly cry at some point but it just makes him sick!

especially bcs he wants to believe. it feels like he wants to say he does, but this is something he knows he can't lie about. he sees vex, finding faith, right before his eyes & there's still this bit of him that remembers. that fixates on his unanswered prayers as a scared child. he trusts her, he's happy for her, he loves her... & maybe he's jealous. just a little bit, hidden beneath the rest of it.

also it is sooo worth noting that percy is not a crier. he's cried enough, there aren't many tears left for him that he hasn't already shed. but sometimes he can't help it.

[thinkingheron]

2018 NanoWrimo Wrap up

Final Count:

Word count : 13,765

Longest streak : 16 days

Best day : 11.07, 2,365 words

Worst day : 11.11,  104 words

Average per day : NAN

Missed : 10 days

So I missed the check-in last week... partly because there was barely any progress there, which was mostly because of... stuff. November, as it turns out, is not the greatest time to do this sort of thing for students and lab rats. It was a nice escape from reality to do Nano, which has always been why I write these fics.

Also how is it that I started out intending to get a decent progress with one wip but ended up with two more ideas?? Why brain. Why.

1. Transformers Kaleidoscope verse (8,315 words)

I did not get anywhere near as much as I wanted with this... Apparently thinking up how a long stalemate battle would go is quite different from actually showing it without making it too repetitive. It’s also somewhat more difficult to get into the characters’ head/processor because it’s been a while. But I think once I start editing and add the stuff that has been written before Nov, there might be enough progress to start posting it.

2. Original fic (4,666 words)

The real reason Kaleidoscope didn’t get much progress. (Keep telling yourself that heron) New wip #1 : an original sci-fi/fantasy fic inspired by Sword & Sworcery EP game (moreover its soundtrack). I’m calling it Tale of Two for now. Act 1 of side A is done, and I’ve started with side B. Currently looking for another nice futuristic sci-fi space travel soundtrack for this part. Opus: the day we found Earth Soundtrack suits really well, but if anyone has other suggestions please let me know. If it goes well, I might return to Wattpad or create a new blog for it. IDK

3. Star Wars snippet that may or may not become its own fic (788 words)

A long conversation with @melissa18999 ended with a random 1-hour word spurt, which resulted in a slightly angsty/heartwarming scene between... you guessed it, Anakin and Obi-Wan. (The amount of Anakin & Obi-Wan angst/heartwarming moments in my wip folder is insane.) This is an AU set during the Orders arc (not my favorite arc tbh) where... I’ll just add the snippet below.

Nano website, which keeps track of these stats, tells me at this rate I’ll finish some time on February. So for the lulz I’m going to keep on and see if I can’t hit at least 30k by that time. I should get a little breathing room after Dec 7th, though there’s no guarantee for my mental well-being by that time.

Snippet is under cut. I wrote it at 2 am and have not touched on anything so warning for general messiness. 

And that’s all folks. Take care.

----

He heard the door to his quarters open, but didn't look up. He already knew who it was. With Ahsoka gone, there was only one person who would visit his room at this hour.

"Anakin," Obi-Wan said, sitting next to him on the couch. "You look troubled. Is everything alright?"

No, Anakin wanted to say. Everything was not alright. Everything was wrong.

"I'm fine. Just worried about Fives."

The familiarity of it all was exhausting. First Ahsoka, now his own men? Why couldn't anyone around him just be normal?

The Chancellor's voice echoed in his head. It's because you are special, Anakin...

Anakin pushed the voice away. Obi-Wan was too close.

"I talked to the Council," Obi-Wan said, unaware of the thoughts. "Master Ti thinks it might be one of those worms from Geonosis."

"We haven't been anywhere near Geonosis in ages," Anakin said.

"Still--"

"And besides, if it was Geonosis worm then why would Fives--" he stopped short.

But the damage was done.

Obi-Wan's eyes narrowed. "Fives what?"

Anakin bit his lips and looked away.

Obi-Wan faced him properly. "What about Fives? Did you find him?"

Anakin sighed. "He's in-- he's in good hands. He was scared so I just..."

"Anakin, this is serious! He needs to be brought here so we can examine him! If there is a parasite then Fives is just as much a danger to himself as to his brothers!"

The old anger, defiance crept back up. The Chancellor’s words replayed in his head, over and over, along with other memories.

They don't trust you...

I have to figure this out by myself, without you.

What you need is a break, Ani...

They don't trust you...

"They don't trust me, is that what this is about?"

Obi-Wan sounded more tired than angry. "Anakin, this isn't about you. It's about Fives--"

"Fives is one of my men. I can deal with him, just give me time."

"Deal with how? The Council wants to be thorough. A Jedi Master has died."

"And they don't trust me to do it!"

"That's not it, Anakin."

"But it is!"

Silence.

Anakin deflated. Obi-Wan may deny it, but he knew what he knew. He had known it from the beginning, ever since that day, standing in the council room for the first time, scared and alone and feeling so, so cold surrounded by the greatest Jedi Masters of the time.

They don't trust you. They're afraid of what you are capable of.

"I just...” Anakin buried his face in his hands. “I tried so hard. I did," He couldn't look at Obi-Wan's eyes right now, not with what he was about to do to the man, his friend, his brother.

But he had made up his mind.

"I tried so hard... to be what I should have been..." He clenched his fist, fighting back the hot feeling that welled up.

"I'm sorry it wasn't enough."

Obi-Wan flinched. It didn't take the Force to tell he was surprised by the admission. "Anakin... what are you talking about?"

Anakin could not answer. Still without looking at his old master, he slowly picked up his lightsaber and pressed it into Obi-Wan's hand.

There was dead silence as Obi-Wan slowly realized what it meant.

"Are you... sure?"

No. "Yes."

Another silence.

It went long enough that Anakin dared a peek towards his master. Obi-Wan's eyes were closed. He was doing his best to keep composed, but the devastation was clear.

He felt sickened by himself. He was doing to Obi-Wan exactly what Ahsoka had done to him. What was wrong with him?

Before Anakin could spiral any further, Obi-Wan asked. "Can you at least tell me why? This isn't just about Fives is it?"

Oh. Well if he was going to do this might as well get everything out.

"I'm... uh... married."

"...Padme."

Anakin gave a tight nod, shoulders hunching further as he crossed his arms tightly. He fixed hiis gaze at a minuscule crack on the floor, unable to face Obi-Wan's disappointment.

[add more]

Finally, Obi-Wan made a sound that sounded strangely like a laugh.

"I can't believe you didn't invite me."

What? Anakin opened his eyes.

Obi-Wan continued quietly. "Thank you for telling me. And... you have my blessings."

...what?!

Anakin was so shocked he forgot to look appropriately ashamed. Where was the anger? The disappointment? 

"You're not... angry?"

"Anakin," he said, and it was almost the exact same chiding tone. "I have known, or at least suspected, for a long time." He raised an eyebrow. "You two are not very subtle, you know."

Oh. A joke. In this moment. Typical.

But then Obi-Wan became serious again. "I only want you to be happy, Anakin."

[ibukiiemioda-blog]

Shiller Pe Guru

What Is The Shiller Pe Ratio Today

I imply, in 2007 the S&P traded at 1468 usually, and also created just $83 in EPS (nearly 18x earnings). Today we are at reduced 1400 levels, with the S&P likely to generate around $104-105 in EPS. That is a 13.4 x multiples, 24% less than in 2007.

Shiller Pe Nasdaq

For arguments purpose, allow's presume a more normalized profit margin through an additional cycle is around 8%. While S&P EPS today resembles $104, implying an 8% margin (down from nearly 11%) on 2013 income suggests something like $82 in EPS. That indicates today the marketplace is trading at 17x following year's normalized incomes. This is not just ahead looking yet extra sensible than a 22.5 x PE10 several. In truth, a 5.8% Free Cash Flow yield contrasted to 1.7% Treasuries could not seem that horrible. (I simply inverted the 17x PE several to obtain the 5.8% FCF yield).

Below, I explain partially why the PE10 ratio is relatively high, as well as recommending an alternative methods of looking at equity markets to establish cheapness. To me, an extra onward looking strategy makes more sense for the long-term investor, along with one that incorporates ahead rate of interest rates.

However neither would certainly I recommend that up until the S&P drops by 50%, I would not touch supplies. Actually, that kind of a decrease to me is very unlikely. Even in 2008, easily the scariest investment period that I have ever seen, the S&P fell 38%. Amongst the economic illuminati of the globe, it seemed that we had not just a terrible economic downturn on our hands, but a worldwide monetary disaster of impressive percentage. Stock responded accordingly.

Could Shiller's Pe10 Ratio Be Misleading Now?A financier HAS to be skeptical that the PE10 is the end-all be-all to valuing the market. Yes, it plainly indicates that the previous eras like the 1950s and the late 1970s were good times to buy stocks generally PM Capital.

Where does it make good sense to add exposure if this ends up being the case? I would certainly recommend at 8-10x a stabilized 2017 number, which is 1020 to 1270 on the S&P 500. The center of that is around 18% below today. Basically, if I have a 5 year time frame, and also think that margins may drop, however average at the very least 8%, after that I enjoy to have the marketplace at around 1100-1200 if we do head into a recession.

Initially, just what is the Shiller's PE10 Ratio? The math is basic: it's the rate of the marketplace, divided by inflation-adjusted revenues balanced over the previous 10 years. In concept a lengthy term ordinary smoothes earnings out throughout the financial cycle. The chart listed below appears to offer engaging evidence that supplies today at 22.5 x PE10 profits are merely rather expensive. Those who depend on PE10 ratios would suggest that today's P/E proportion of 13x (based only on 2012 profits) is illusory given the coming recession and prepared for normalization of profits and also margins.

I merely think no central banker in his ideal mind ever permits one more liquidity crisis to unfold again, the method the US Federal Reserve (assisted by the Bank of England) let Lehman Brothers declare personal bankruptcy. Each and every single major huge banking near-failure considering that Lehman in September 2008 has actually been thrown adequate resources, whether it's Spain's Bankia or TARP money to the US financial system. Central bankers want no component in closing down the worldwide monetary system.

Shiller Pe For S & p 500

These feel like affordable financial analyses to make. And if they do proceed, revenue margins likely aren't going to fall back to the 4-5% levels saw in the 1970s and also very early 1980s. It took exceptionally high rates of interest paired with more very levered companies in that era to press margins so low. In addition to an oil dilemma or 2. The world is much different than it was in 1980.

Shiller Pe Ratio For The S & p 500

Supply worths are inflated based upon current profits. Extra essential, we should realize that lots of companies are making use of debt to take advantage of their. With extensive experience in the rare-earth elements industry, PM Capital is the premier source for buying gold and silver in the United States. We market and distribute a variety of special items varying from gold and silver bars and rounds to rare numismatic coins. The objective of our whole service operation is committed to supplying these valuable products straight to your doorstep. Our main workplace is located in the Salt Lake Valley, where the landscapes is incredible and the service environment is primed for massive development. Many significant corporations from around the world are expanding or opening workplaces in Utah, benefiting from the unique climate and the extraordinary quality of a young and lively workforce. As strong as the Granite Mountains that surround PM Capital, our Client Care integrated with our dedication to personalized service makes PM Capital your top relied on source for obtaining rare-earth elements. The quality of our products is our leading goal and we achieve that mission with a staff devoted to serving you. Integrating our service with the market's finest wholesale network makes sure that every brand-new coin, round or bar meets or goes beyond present quality requirements developed by the NGC and PCGS. Structure your precious metals portfolio can be an obstacle which's why PM Capital is devoted to streamlining the job every step of the way.balance sheets. Other business have reduced earnings and advantages to increase the bottom line for a couple of at the cost of the numerous.

Shiller Pe Expected Return

All we truly need is for earnings margins to stay in the same ballpark as we have actually seen over the last decade. Allow's call it 7-9% rather than the long-term average of 6%. Today's close to 11% level appears extraordinary, as well as does warrant caution however. I do intend to mention that during the late 1990s margins got, primarily due to the fact that unemployment rates were so low. As it came to be extremely tough to find great hires, wage stress intensified. Today, wage stress today is nil, and unless we see some actual grip in hiring, likely to stay nil.

Where To Find Shiller Pe

As well as last but not least, do incomes in 2002 and also 2003 really influence whether I buy stocks today? To me the PE10 integrates excessive weight on earnings 8, 9 and also 10 years ago. Eli Lilly for example generated average EPS of $2.46 over the previous 10 years, indicating a PE10 ratio of 17.4 x. I am uncertain exactly what that tells me to be sincere. Does that Lilly did $2.82 in EPS in 2002 have anything to do with just what the supply will perform in 2013? I 'd suggest no.

Shiller Pe For Individual Stocks

An economic crisis in the not-to-distant future is unavoidable. An economic crisis incorporated with a liquidity dilemma? I doubt it. As a matter of fact, I would certainly argue that the marketplace still stays in worry of this feasible harmful mix. Every misstep in Greece or Spain is stressed over by the media, with capitalists continuing to avoid supplies and also acquisition unbelievably costly bonds. The market already is discounted to some level for one more 2008 failure.

Shiller Pe Definition

This is unquestionably a high-risk wager. Note though that I am not suggesting that revenue margins won't drop however. Actually I fully expect that we will experience an economic crisis sometime in the following one to three years (or months ?!). That could easily container earnings by 15%, decreasing margins also.

It's not hard to promptly detail several factors for continuously rising earnings margins given that the early 1980s. Clearly productivity enhancement is the number one reason, yet below are numerous others either owning that or contributing directly to greater success:

Shiller Pe Ratio History

While it is tough to say that we are not near an intermittent peak in incomes, I think that the Shiller PE10 is far too simplified a yardstick to establish whether equities economical. Not only that, yet it's extremely impractical. Supporters suggesting purchasing when the PE10 Ratio economicals, (below claim 12 or 13x incomes) may be waiting literally for 10 or twenty years before we get one more crack at buying supplies!

United States financial deficiencies are a huge wildcard in the equation. Federal government investing over of profits typically relates to higher levels of GDP than would or else be achieved. With $1TT deficiencies, GDP essentially is over-inflated by $1TT annually. Trimming deficits by raising tax obligations and also stopping investing likely would be a large drag out earnings. Think about shed sales, as well as lost economic climates of range at the corporate level.

Shiller Pe Black Tuesday

Assuming that the fads in efficiency continue, then 11% margins in 2017 might actually be attainable. Presuming just 1% genuine development at 11% margins implies $174 in S&P revenues per share in 5 years.

Shiller Pe Individual Stocks

The solution is remarkably basic. If the ratio is the average of the prior One Decade, after that it do without stating (or perhaps not), that profit margins should have been steadily rising. That is, throughout economic downturns in 1990, 2002, and also 2008, margins might have dipped, yet usually margins recouped, and after that got to even higher optimals.

Shiller Pe Explained

Does any of this seem like a secure market? Having a system addicted to perpetual debt is not an option. It is merely a temporary procedure to permit the monetary wizards to siphon off genuine manufacturing right into their hands. In real estate you had Wall Street buy up numerous houses owning prices higher as well as leas higher only to draw away more income from functioning families. How is that good? This was supported by the Fed with their negative rate of interest plans. Again, nothing comes for totally free in this globe.

Regardless, for this choice approach to work, you have to believe that the nine profit margin renovation fads (listed over) remain to some degree. While it is arguable that claim federal government law and also higher taxes will kink margins in the future, I also assume that unemployment rates will certainly stay high, globalization will proceed, technological change will certainly remain to cultivate performance gains, rate of interest prices will remain reduced, and also privatization of markets worldwide will continue.

At today's 1400 costs on the S&P 500, this conservative situation only gets you 3% in return annually. That is not too excellent as well as recommends to me that today's market does seem a little expensive. However 3% is still a far better return compared to bonds! In addition to that if I can pick much better carrying out stocks compared to the marketplace, after that I can do far better compared to bonds today. Needless to state I might be lightening a supply below and also there, however not dumping them by any stretch.

Layoff Extreme Forums

The P/E 10 proportion differs a lot over time. According to data initially offered in Shiller's bestseller "Irrational Exuberance" (which was launched in March 2000, coinciding with the top of the dot-com boom), upgraded to cover the period 1881 to November 2013, the proportion has varied from a reduced of 4.78 in December 1920 to a top of 44.20 in December 1999.

Shiller Pe Ratio Definition

If the S&P could reach $174 in EPS in 2017, after that if supplies traded at 13x 2017 EPS by the time we obtain there, then we can reach 2262 on the S&P, 61% greater than today! That would certainly net you 10% each year in small market gains, far much better than 1.7% bonds.

Market Indicators Suggesting A Correction Is Coming: On Black Tuesday Shiller Pe Ratio Was At 30. Today It Is At 26.2 And Volatility Is Back In A Big Way.What this

is signifying to us is that the need to deliver products is low hence pushing rates lower. The last time we saw a crash similar to this we ended up with the Great Recession. Have a look at oil prices:

Shiller Pe Data Excel

There are any variety of conclusions you could certainly make here depending upon your sight of the sustainability of high earnings margins. More compared to anything I believe capitalists need to reassess any oversimplistic step like the PE10. As a matter of fact, besides taxation and also government interference, greater margins are most likely right here to remain. I wouldn't say that 11% is lasting, but if 8% is lasting, then at 1200ish on the S&P, I get pretty excited, especially when compared with adverse real returning Treasury bonds.

Shiller Pe Data

An objection of the P/E 10 proportion is that it is not always exact in signifying market tops or bottoms. For instance, an article in the September 2011 problem of the "American Association of Individual Investors' Journal" kept in mind that the CAPE proportion for the S&P 500 was 23.35 in July 2011. Contrasting this ratio to the long-term CAPE average of 16.41 would certainly recommend that the index was greater than 40% overvalued then. The short article suggested that the CAPE ratio supplied an extremely bearish view of the marketplace, considering that standard evaluation steps like the P/E revealed the S&P 500 trading at a multiple of 16.17 (based upon reported incomes) or 14.84 (based on operating earnings). Although the S&P 500 did plunge 16% throughout a one-month period from mid-July to mid-August 2011, the index consequently climbed more than 35% from July 2011 to brand-new highs by November 2013.

Shiller Pe Ratio Index

The P/E 10 ratio is based on the job of popular capitalists Benjamin Graham and David Dodd in their epic 1934 investment tome "Security Analysis." Graham and also Dodd suggested using a multi-year average of earnings per share (EPS)-- such as 5, 7 or 10 years-- when computing P/E proportions to regulate for intermittent effects.

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