#fire your chekhov's guns already grrm

[nobodysuspectsthebutterfly]

I do think it's interesting that Cersei keeps the chain that Shae was wearing in her first chapter in Feast. The inclusion of that detail makes me think it will be relevant later on.

Yes, exactly, it's like how Sansa slipped the black amethyst (strangler) hairnet into her pocket when she left King's Landing. GRRM is a big believer in Chekhov's gun, so we had best add the Hand's chain necklace to the list.

[nobodysuspectsthebutterfly]

HI! I love your blog! I was reading your posts about "Thin Places" and I wondered if you could expand as to why the Nightfort might be one of them? It's been a while since my last reading but I can only account for the whole Rat Cook debacle and the Night King, which I guess could be enough but still curious to know if there's more. Also, do you think that played a part/was the main reason why it was abandoned? (English is not my first language so apologies if made any mistakes!)

Hi! Same anon who asked about the Nightfort yesterday, I literally *just* found the post where you give the exact Bran quote to answer my ‘why is it a thin place’ question. Sorry about that! But still curious about whether you think we can say it’s ~one of the reasons it was abandoned.

The Night’s King legend happened very early on in the Age of Heroes, soon after the first Long Night ended, as he was the 13th Lord Commander of the Night’s Watch. This was about 8000 years ago. The Rat Cook story took place some time after the Andal Invasion, as the king whose son he fed to him in a pie was an Andal king. This was probably about 2000 to 4000 years ago… though it’s possible it could have been more recent, the legendary aspects of the tale and the facts that the details are highly uncertain (the king may have been a Lannister or an Arryn) suggests it was a long while back.

Nevertheless, despite these events and the other remarkably creepy events at the Nightfort, the castle remained manned for centuries… millennia, even. Though it didn’t stay the NW’s chief castle for that long – the title moved to Castle Black some time after it was built. (Note the Nightfort, the first castle the NW built, is about twice as old as Castle Black.) And with the decline of the Watch, their numbers dwindling, the Nightfort eventually became three-quarters empty and very difficult to maintain, crumbling and cold. Still, the Night’s Watch couldn’t afford to abandon the castle, as they did not have enough money to build a replacement… until the visit to the Wall by Queen Alysanne Targaryen in 58 AC, about 240 years ago.

When Alysanne visited the Nightfort and spent the night there, she immediately noted its structural and administrative problems… and one more thing:

The Nightfort itself she found grim and sinister. “It is so huge the men seem dwarfed by it, like mice in a ruined hall,” she told Jaehaerys, “and there is a darkness there… a taste in the air… I was so glad to leave that place.” –Fire & Blood

And upon her insistent advice to the Lord Commander, and the jewels she provided to the Night’s Watch to fund the building of a new castle between Snowgate and Icemark, the NW soon abandoned the Nightfort. In fact, they moved out of the Nightfort into the new castle, Deep Lake, before it was even finished.

So… is the Nightfort’s possible status as a Thin Place a reason why it was abandoned? Well, the Night’s Watch managed to deal with it for centuries, so maybe it couldn’t have been that bad… But still, in the end, all it took was one Targaryen spending one night there, and getting soooo creeped out that she pledged her own personal possessions – her jewelry, even – to pay to get the Watch out of the Nightfort, and they left as soon as possible. So I’d say, yeah, it played a part.

And also! assuming the Wall goes down via the Others/Euron/something of the sort, do you think that would have a more negative impact on it? (I know this is pure fan speculation, but it’s very interesting/fun lol)

If/when the Wall goes down, I don’t think the Nightfort is going to implode into a Breach in the Veil Between the Worlds, no. I don’t get that kind of ticking time bomb vibe from it at all. (I would be dreadfully fascinated to see if anything happens to the seventy-nine sentinels though.) However, it may be that the Black Gate – the tunnel through the Wall beneath the Nightfort, whose gate is made of weirwood with a face that talks, that responds only to a Watchman reciting the Night’s Watch vow – will become more exposed, if the Nightfort crumbles to bits when the Wall falls. Or perhaps the Black Gate will be completely buried in the rubble, requiring someone trying to use it to find a different path. It’s a definite Chekhov’s gun, either way. We’ll just have to see…

[nobodysuspectsthebutterfly]

GRRM’s Chekhov’s guns - how can we tell what they are?

yeyaboya asked:

I love the way you analyze ASOIAF and its mysteries and how you made me enjoy them even more by revealing the “Chekhov’s guns”. The last list you made is amazing! I hope this question doesn’t bother you but how can we be sure that some minor mysteries are Chekhov’s guns and not just worldbuilding? Is there something as a literary rule to distinguish them? After all, not every story needs to be told in the books and some things may work better if left open…

Thanks so much! Regarding GRRM’s Chekhov’s guns, the most important thing to remember is where the term came from:

Remove everything that has no relevance to the story. If you say in the first chapter that there is a rifle hanging on the wall, in the second or third chapter it absolutely must go off. If it’s not going to be fired, it shouldn’t be hanging there. –Anton Chekhov

That principle can be understood in several ways: 1) if you intend to have something happen later in the story, you should set it up earlier in the story; and 2) if you mention a significant object or other element, it must be important to the plot, otherwise you shouldn’t mention it.

Therefore, deciding whether something is a Chekhov’s gun (for a plot point that hasn’t happened yet) is very similar to deciding whether something is foreshadowing (for a plot point that hasn’t happened yet). If you want to do literary analysis properly, you can’t look at an unfinished work and say definitely that things are foreshadowing or Chekhov’s guns – you need to wait until the work is complete, otherwise you’re only guessing. Sometimes you can guess in a way that turns out to have been pretty accurate, but sometimes the author was not going where you thought he was, sometimes the object was not significant at all, and you end up being just plain wrong.*

*(To step away from ASOIAF, consider the Harry Potter series: some thought that Neville’s parents giving him bubble gum wrappers was a Chekhov’s gun, and built theories about what the letters on the wrappers signified. Others thought that Lily Potter having been skilled at potions and charms was significant foreshadowing for Harry discovering that a potion or charm was needed to defeat Voldemort. Still others believed Harry and Hermione’s flight on the hippogriff was foreshadowing for their future romance, based on alchemical symbolism. While there were many arguments about the validity of these speculative Chekhov’s guns and foreshadowing during the time the story was unfinished, by the end they all turned out to be extremely wrong.)

However, even in an incomplete work, you can analyze pieces of foreshadowing where the thing they foreshadowed happened already, because there you can be definite. For example, the stag killing the mother direwolf, which foreshadowed conflict between the Starks and Baratheons, or all the visions and such foreshadowing the Red Wedding. (Sandor’s “maybe we’ll even be in time for your uncle’s bloody wedding” also counts as foreshadowing, though GRRM was extremely unsubtle by that point. Not that the visions were especially subtle, not at all.) To shift that to Chekhov’s guns (which are often but not always physical objects): for example, at the end of ACOK when Dontos gave Sansa the black amethyst hairnet, that was GRRM hanging the gun upon the wall (and we knew it was a gun because we had been told that strangler crystals looked like dark amethysts at the start of ACOK) – and then the gun was fired in ASOS at Joffrey’s wedding, with one of the “amethysts” in the hairnet used to poison his wine.

Another baseline to check the significance of potential Chekhov’s guns is GRRM’s own words regarding the direwolf Nymeria and her pack of wolves, where he stated that “you don’t hang a giant wolf pack on the wall unless you intend to use it.” He explicitly referred to them as a Chekhov’s gun – and we can see by the many times that Nymeria and the wolfpack have been mentioned in the story, ranging from frightening lords and peasants in the Riverlands, to killing the Brave Companions chasing Arya and her friends, to dragging Catelyn’s body from the river, to being a focus of Arya’s wolf dreams allowing her to keep her identity despite the Faceless Men’s attempts to make her “no one” (again even in TWOW), that GRRM considers them a very important and significant gun that will go off hard. What exact role they’ll play in endgame, we don’t know yet, but it is definite that they will have one.

Therefore we can consider things that have been referred to often, whose ultimate purpose is mysterious or as yet unknown, to be very probable Chekhov’s guns. Valyrian steel, for example, has been hinted to be one of the few things that can destroy the Others – therefore Valyrian steel swords are definite “guns” (Chekhov’s swords?), even specific swords that have not been mentioned much. (Widow’s Wail, not mentioned since Joffrey’s death, but in the Red Keep waiting for Tommen to grow up; the Targaryen swords Blackfyre and Dark Sister, as yet unnamed within the main books but significant within D&E/TWOIAF/F&B; and so on.) The powers of the Wall to repel the Others and focus or block magic have also been referred to often, therefore it seems very likely that the “gun” in this case is the fall of the Wall via the Horn of Joramun, allowing the Others into Westeros to raise the dead and begin the new Long Night. Jaime described how Aerys and his pyromancers planted thousands of jars of wildfire within King’s Landing, even in the cellars of the Red Keep – and while Tyrion and his pyromancers found many of those jars while preparing for the Battle of the Blackwater, significantly they did not discover the ones within the castle – so it seems probable that Aerys’s “fruits” are a huge Chekhov’s gun that’s not just going to be fired, it’s going to explode. It’s technically possible that this might not be a gun; it could be that the Blackwater was all the plot that the wildfire jars were needed for… but at this moment (especially with wildfire playing a major role in a KL explosion in the show), I’d take any bet.

And as for certain major or minor mysteries (Jon’s parentage, Ashara’s suicide, Tyrek’s disappearance, Benjen’s disappearance, Jaqen’s actions, Patchface, the many prophecies, etc, etc), whether they can be defined as a “Chekhov’s gun” or not… it’s kind of a matter of semantics. However, GRRM is definitely following Chekhov’s principle here, in that he is establishing these plot elements within the story, “hanging them on the wall”, so that when they are resolved or become relevant later, it won’t come out of nowhere. (Note GRRM has said he avoids looking at fan theories in case they’re right, because then he might be tempted to change things up to surprise people – but if it were a surprise, then it wouldn’t be based on the work he’s done that led people to figure things out in advance, which would be bad writing.) Also, we know that these plot elements are significant, otherwise he wouldn’t be mentioning them.

That leads to your question about worldbuilding, and whether elements of ASOIAF worldbuilding can be considered a Chekhov’s gun or if they’re just “flavor text” to give depth to the world of ASOIAF. And the answer is… it depends. Worldbuilding like the cannibals of Skagos seems like it will become very relevant to future events, as Rickon is on Skagos and Davos is heading there in order to bring him home. The mystery of Hardhome is another element of worldbuilding that may become relevant, if Jon needs to rescue the Night’s Watchmen and wildlings there. The mysteries of Asshai… alas, GRRM has said nobody’s going to Asshai, but it will still be significant through the people who have been there. The Deep Ones, the black stone, all that weirdness from TWOIAF – as they appear to be relevant to the ironborn and to the Hightower at Oldtown, as there will soon be a huge confluence of ironborn at Oldtown with whatever weird magical ritual Euron’s planning – well, that seems like a pretty big potential Chekhov’s gun to me. The demon roads of Valyria and the monsters of Mantarys might just be worldbuilding… or they might be relevant when Dany (probably) travels to Volantis.

But the mystery of whether the dragon Vermax laid a clutch of eggs by the hot springs of Winterfell? While that’s briefly hinted to in TWOIAF, that rumor is noted as being extremely dubious within the text, and nothing within ASOIAF itself has referred to the story. Not even any tales by Old Nan, who you’d think would mention it if anyone would. Though it’s possible that it will be related as one of her tales in TWOW (and the TWOIAF-only thing is just ‘cos GRRM’s so late with that book), and the crypts of Winterfell are surely significant for many reasons (Jon’s parentage, secret passages, the mystery of why the statues have swords, what might happen when the Others make the dead rise). So there could be a Chekhov’s gun involved here… or maybe not.

And there’s also the fact that GRRM doesn’t always follow Chekhov’s principle. Besides him being a gardener-writer and not an architect-writer, not everything he writes in detail is significant to the plot of the story. Sometimes he just wants to show the grim-n-grittiness of the world, therefore the constant mentions of pee. Sometimes he’s just showing the pageantry of the medieval era, or the mysteries of “here be dragons” in lands beyond common knowledge. Sometimes he’s making private jokes, including references to writer friends or fan friends or comic books or Harry Potter or the Three Stooges. Sometimes GRRM just wants to describe amazing food, because he loves food. Though once in a rare while, food actually is relevant to the plot. ;)

So, the question of whether something’s a Chekhov’s gun or not, and how you can distinguish a mystery that’s intended to stay a open mystery, from one that will be resolved and/or significant to the events of the story? Well, for things that haven’t come to a conclusion yet… you can do your best at guessing, but honestly, you can’t know. The proof is in the pudding. When the story’s over, we’ll know. Even if you take lots of English classes, even if you study classics of literature and fantasy, even if you read GRRM’s favorite books, even if you read other GRRM works and try to figure out his patterns, you may have become a better educated guesser, but it’s still no guarantee. I’m sorry, that’s just the way it is. In the end, some fans who tried to make predictions will be right and some will be wrong and many will have never even guessed where GRRM was going; some things we thought were Chekhov’s guns or foreshadowing won’t be; and some things we’ll go back and see that GRRM had been laying the groundwork all along and we never noticed. (Though it’s a big fandom, I’d bet at least someone would have noticed.)

And really, I think the possibilities of being wrong, the possibilities of being not quite right – that’s half the fun of writing about this series. If we figured out everything that was going to happen before it did, what would be the point of reading, after all? Though if it turns out you did figure things out correctly… you can be glad you did. :)

[nobodysuspectsthebutterfly]

@mangy2013 reblogged your post “GRRM’s Chekhov’s guns...” and added:

Great analysis.

Thank you!

I’ve been wondering if the the hot springs of Winterfell were themselves a ‘Chekhov’s gun/sword’. Winterfell is the millennia- old stronghold of the North, built to guard against the Others and the Long Night.  What better place to built a fortress to guard against creatures of ice, vulnerable to fire, than on top of active volcanic activity?

I dunno, I was thinking of Old Valyria and how the Doom is described like a volcanic eruption, but with a magical element, and it seemed like an interesting parallel.

But maybe they’re just there to keep people toasty warm.

Well, there’s a theory that Winterfell is the place where “winter fell”, where the Others were defeated in the last Long Night. Most variations of that theory do tend to focus on the hot springs keeping people warm, and the double moat system, and other features that make Winterfell an excellent place to have a last stand. (And likely a place where there will be another last stand in the new Long Night.)

But you may be right, it’s also possible that the geothermal activity at Winterfell could have been a greater factor than just warmth. It’s not volcanic that we know of, but maybe it used to be, maybe there’s an obsidian/dragonglass deposit deep below the crypts, as well as at Dragonstone? (Though considering how long people have lived at Winterfell, probably it’s all gone by now.) Maybe that’s the reason for those dragon egg rumors, a game of telephone with “cache of dragonglass” becoming “cache of dragon eggs”.

And re the Doom of Valyria, I theorize that what happened at Hardhome was also a massive geothermal event, and think maybe if it’s still active, it could be used to distract / destroy the Others and/or provide dragonglass if a rescue operation goes to Hardhome... maybe if that works, it could be used at Winterfell too?

Though the problem is that there’s a big castle on top of the source of Winterfell’s hot springs... and if somehow one could back up the steam from the hot springs enough to create an explosion massive enough to destroy an army of Others and wights, there probably wouldn’t be a castle afterwards...

So, yeah, maybe the “keep people toasty warm” option is the best one.

[nobodysuspectsthebutterfly]

Do you think we'll find out what exactly happened to Ashara or are we going to have to live with the theory that Brandon impregnated her and she (maybe?) lost the baby and killed herself?

Almost certainly we’ll find out. It’s not like everything we know about Ashara Dayne was infodumped on us all at once, it’s been developed throughout the series.

AGOT > rumor that Ashara is Jon’s mother, rumor that she and Ned were in love, story that she killed herself after Ned returned Dawn to the Daynes after Arthur’s death and/or because her child was stolen from her; detail that she was beautiful and had violet eyes

ASOS > story that Ashara was at the Tourney at Harrenhal and danced with several men including Ned (by Brandon’s request), detail that she was one of Elia’s companions

ADWD > story that Barristan was in unrequited love with her, mention that she had a stillborn daughter, mention that Barristan has a grudge against “Stark” for “dishonoring” her at Harrenhal; detail that her hair was dark; introduction of the mysterious Lemore (who’s probably too old to be Ashara but whatever, GRRM is teasing a connection on purpose)

There’s two books to go. The Daynes are still involved in the story via Darkstar and Edric. Dawn hasn’t shown up yet, and it’s a serious Chekhov’s gun. Why ever would GRRM not continue giving information on this topic?

[nobodysuspectsthebutterfly]

Hello! Do you know who has the dagger which was used to try to kill Bran? Either in the books or the show.

I don’t know (or care) about the show, but in the books, Ned took the dagger from Catelyn when she came to King’s Landing, and Petyr Baelish claimed Tyrion had won it from him at Joffrey’s 12th birthday tourney. (Which was not true, it was Robert that had won it.) Littlefinger took the dagger back from Ned in the throne room coup scene:

As his men died around him, Littlefinger slid Ned’s dagger from its sheath and shoved it up under his chin. His smile was apologetic. “I did warn you not to trust me, you know.”

–AGOT, Eddard XIV

The last we saw of it, he was using it to cut fruit…

Petyr cut a pomegranate in two with his dagger, offering half to Sansa. “You should try and eat, my lady.”    “Thank you, my lord.” Pomegranate seeds were so messy; Sansa chose a pear instead, and took a small delicate bite. 

…while teaching Sansa a certain lesson:

“Tell me, Alayne—which is more dangerous, the dagger brandished by an enemy, or the hidden one pressed to your back by someone you never even see?”“The hidden dagger.”“There’s a clever girl.” He smiled, his thin lips bright red from the pomegranate seeds. “When the Imp sent off her guards, the queen had Ser Lancel hire sellswords for her. Lancel found her the Kettleblacks, which delighted your little lord husband, since the lads were in his pay through his man Bronn.” He chuckled. “But it was me who told Oswell to get his sons to King’s Landing when I learned that Bronn was looking for swords. Three hidden daggers, Alayne, now perfectly placed.”“So one of the Kettleblacks put the poison in Joff’s cup?” Ser Osmund had been near the king all night, she remembered.“Did I say that?” Lord Petyr cut the blood orange in two with his dagger and offered half to Sansa. “The lads are far too treacherous to be part of any such scheme… and Osmund has become especially unreliable since he joined the Kingsguard. That white cloak does things to a man, I find. Even a man like him.” He tilted his chin back and squeezed the blood orange, so the juice ran down into his mouth. “I love the juice but I loathe the sticky fingers,” he complained, wiping his hands. “Clean hands, Sansa. Whatever you do, make certain your hands are clean.”

–ASOS, Sansa VI

The fact that the Valyrian steel dagger, one of GRRM’s biggest Chekhov’s guns (if fired already, but then hung back on the wall) appears in this highly metaphorical and foreshadowing-filled scene with Sansa… well. I think, I hope, I believe this dagger will play a certain part in Littlefinger’s downfall. And since it’s Valyrian steel, then likely Sansa will have the dagger for defense against the Others during the upcoming War for the Dawn. Hope that helps!

[nobodysuspectsthebutterfly]

@maidenoftheforestlight:

@nobodysuspectsthebutterfly:

@maidenoftheforestlight​ replied to your post:

Because I’m a shipper till the bitter end…  SAN SAN!!! It ain’t a coincidence!!!

heh, you should enjoy this post, then.

Yes! This is what I'm talking about! There's no way GRRM isn't making a point by having LF say that to Sansa... Who just so happens to a "thing" for a guy called "Sandor"! Come on! You also don't name characters similar things like this in the first place by coincidence...

I wonder if Sansa will ever make that connection... Like "aww our names sound cute together...". Isn't there some kid called Sandor somewhere at the Vale tourney? Maybe Myranda will tease Sansa about that guy, like "Ohhhh Sansa and Sandor! You'd sound so sweet together if you got married!" And Sansa will be like... "Oh! That does sound good!" It would be so awesome if she gave her favour at the tourney to that guy, just for sentimental reasons...

Right, exactly, the "San/San" could be a coincidence, but when GRRM actually has characters in the story point out relationships with alliterative or rhyming names and say how nice it is (whether sardonically in LF’s case or truly in Tysha’s), then at the very least you know he’s doing it on purpose. Though why he’s doing it on purpose... gah, I haaate waiting for this, I do.

Sandor Frey is indeed in the Vale, a squire to one of Lady Waynwood’s sons. His little sister Cynthea is her ward, as well. (Their mother was a Waynwood, though we don’t know how she was related to the family yet.) Because of this close connection to Lady Waynwood, who is also the guardian of Harry Hardyng, I am pretty darn certain that Sandor Frey and “Alayne” will interact in TWOW, yes. The fact that he’s only a little younger than Sansa is, and probably a big kid because of his Crakehall blood... makes me a little nervous, I have to admit. As does his Frey-ness, especially.

Now, Sansa will probably be able to control herself from obviously showing distaste for the name, though inside I’m sure she’ll be steaming. Actually, considering how people in the Vale (and all over Westeros) are disgusted by Freys now, maybe Sandor and Cynthea will be calling themselves Waynwoods? (Heck, since Harry is claiming the Arryn sigil for himself on his shield, it would not be unprecedented.)

But either way I don’t think Sansa will be giving him her favor -- he is only a squire, not nearly important enough to make Harry jealous -- if he’s even at the tourney, as Donnel Waynwood is the Knight of the Gate and thus has a job to do at the Bloody Gate, which would include his squire Sandor. Though surely Ser Donnel wouldn’t begrudge his young squire from seeing all the pageantry of this amazing new Tourney for the Brotherhood of the Winged Knights, so maybe he will show up for a bit? augh, I want TWOW now...

[nobodysuspectsthebutterfly]

@tylandlannister replied to your post “This might be a bit of an odd question, considering it's fantasy and...”

It could be sharp but inserted into a metal socket that protects the tissue around it? I'd love to have him headbutt an Other with it. Then again, a round one can be shattered and used, I suppose. But he is gonna use it against an Other at some point, right?

I don’t think false eyes work that way, sorry. Also, I don’t believe you can headbutt someone with your eye. Your brow bone, nose, and orbital socket prevent that kind of contact. (Which, btw, is why Sandor’s eye is still good on his burned side, it never came into contact with the coals because the rest of his face protected it.)

But yeah, I can totally see Crowfood using his dragonglass eye as a weapon against an Other in some shape or form.

Either that or his brother Hother, the might’ve-been-maester, will use it as a glass candle. Just imagine, you’re in the middle of the War for the Dawn, and some huge and tough old man with a glowing eye appears before you with an important message... ok, I’m just visualizing Cable now, but still, awesome.