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reliableremodeling · 6 years

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Seasons between 2010 and 2013 missed just one contest

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hegelbon · 8 years

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Analyzing Sports and You

Okay, I’m limiting this to a half hour because no one is going to pay for or read this, but I feel I need to concretize some ideas that I’ve had about advanced football analysis. Off the bat: advanced football analysis, the type for which we’ve seen Football Outsiders and Pro Football Focus become famous, is a noble enough endeavor. It is important that we stop seeing the games we love through the standard box score lenses we’re used to. Maybe it’s important because we want to be scouts or GMs someday; maybe it’s important just because we want to be better fans, knowing who deserves the credit and blame outside of normative stereotypes. Regardless of motive, it’s totally fine and in fact progressive and good to want better stats. It’s what baseball has been up to since Bill James decided to mimeograph a bunch of pamphlets in the garage, and it’s good and timely that football is catching up.

That said, I am not particularly impressed with the current iteration of advanced football analysis. I’d mince words, but after a war of words on twitter today, I doubt I’m anyone’s fav over at Football Outsiders, and generally my inability to market myself as a football fan makes me invisible on the gridiron freelance beat. So whatever, let’s just say what we mean: these sites do interesting work, but it’s interesting work that is outdated and flawed. I’d like to explain why I think this.

The outdated bit is arguably the less hot of these hot takes: I think advanced football analysis is slowly and unnecessarily working through the missteps and growing pains that sabermetric analysis did from, say, 1990 to now. Call it post-Moneyball the book and pre-Moneyball the movie. In that period, it was common to fetishize the three true outcomes above everything else, get furious at the valorization of any other skill attribute than patience, power, and pitch speed, and basically get real rebellious at the old Dad Figure of Joe Morgan.

In lots of ways, this period kicked ass, since it spawned Fire Joe Morgan and The Dugout, so I have almost no complaints. But a lot of the analysis, looked at now, is a bit dubious. We all have our columns where we champion Brandon Allen or Wily Mo Pena, arguing that they’re blocked by reductive/racist/boneheaded/traditionalist/etc managers and GMs who don’t know how to use them. We all had our GM heroes who could do no wrong, and the ideology of Billy Beane was – despite our clear expression that it was not – as close to a religion as the discourse had. Basically, sabermetrics hadn’t killed its heroes.

And then, as the 2010s began, something strange happened – we started questioning stuff fairly aggressively. Baseball Prospectus’ Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller (now both sadly no longer with BPro, but happily onto bigger things) and Fangraphs’ Eno Sarris and, heaven help me, Carson Cistulli were some of the most thoughtful pioneers here. They began to question whether our biases have helped us ignore players that were actually good; whether power and patience were actually the only skills that mattered or whether they were simply scarcities during a period where we cared about scarcity; and whether we really did have a good model of “player value” in Wins Above Replacement (or Wins Above Replacement Player, or Value Over Replacement Player, or rWins Above Replacement…you get the point). The step the baseball analytical community took, in other words, was to look at all the truths it had set up as sacred and question every single one.

It seems to me that the football analytics community ought to preemptively do the same thing. The specter of having an outdated draft claim akin to “Brandon Allen is better than Paul Goldschmidt” is scary enough to my mind that any analyst worth their salt would immediately doubt any sort of received thought they considered true. And yet, critiques (valid ones!) of management, drafting strategy, and racist pigeonholing of players in particular skill positions have lead analytical football writers to fall into the trap of proving others wrong instead of looking at what’s in front of them. This is what leads to hot takes about “the kind” of quarterback that can succeed, or breathless mockery of teams at the top of the draft or thereabouts who “reach” for a bad player. There’s a player every year who is a special player – Myles Jack this year, and partly Jalen Ramsey – and players who are overrated. Yes, this is about Carson Wentz.

But while I will happily let it be known that I am an Eagles fan obsessed with and convinced by Wentz, I also want to insist that this article isn’t really about him. No, it’s more about what Wentz represents, which is these analysts’ stubborn inability to study what they got wrong. And some folks do, don’t get me wrong – Ben Natan, John Barchard, Derek Klassen have all turned around on Wentz and thought about what they could have missed. And while Ramsey has hit undeniably, I’m sure there are those souls in Jags twitter doing the opposite kind of analysis on Jack, and in Rams twitter doing that analysis on Goff, etc, etc. The problem is that there are still loud voices that remain egotistically bent on justifying their pre-draft grades on players.

In baseball, this problem resolves itself – you can believe in a prospect all you want, but if they can’t make it past AA, welp. But in football, the range of results on a player are much wider and much more subject to personal interpretation. This is all well and good for casual conversation, of course – you can talk about if Joe Flacco is elite with your uncle or whatever and really enjoy yourself, and I say go with god. But the problem is that if you’re planning on having a serious scientific analysis of players and their abilities, you need to be more exact than that. And DVOA, All 22, and casual non-trained scouting of film is not exact; or put more kindly, it’s along the spectrum of exactitude, but not nearly there enough to be confident in.

And yet, on twitter there is the pretension that the whole analytical community is the smartest person in the room, empirically considering 100 percent of the data while us proles nip at their heels. I’m blocked by this guy now because I disagreed with him, but if you’re not here are some examples:

Imagining that you look at 100 percent of a deeply complex and subjectively tinted game and come away with the only empirical analysis is not just flawed thinking, it’s egotism and it’s dangerous. Even worse, we get accounts defended by stats like DYAR that gets zero skepticism or self-critique. These are tautologies – the players are good because the metrics said they’re good. And the metrics are good because they show us the good players. It’s silly and juvenile, but mention that the process looks a lot like the failed attempts of a now more mature sabermetric enterprise, and you’re out of the magic circle.

In the end, football analytics has its own problems that aren’t encompassed by sabermetric analogues, and I can admit that too. I’m not as good at interpreting the NFL as I am MLB; I’m fine admitting that also. But even if I’m wrong on Wentz or Jack or Goff or whatever, it doesn’t excuse the lack of self-critical method and intellectual doubt that’s rampant in these circles. When this is your go to sense of self

it should come as no surprise that your work is attacked as a project of ego-proof than anything else. And when your thesis is “I was right, and let me prove why” then all the All 22 and gifs in the world won’t save you from bad thinking.

Football, like any sort of thing-in-the-world, is driven by subjective analysis. When you deny that you’re vulnerable to being a subject, and when you insist that you’re immune to any bias, then you’re just a god to yourself in your own thinking. There’s a lot to be said about advanced football analysis today; it’s just not being said by the people who are trying to prove a point instead of trying to learn something new.

#footballoutsiders #cian fahey #scott kacsmar #polemic #burning bridges

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