#i mean actually i'm looking at elia because if i can deny the iron throne a valyrian match and all of dorne that only benefits me BUT.

[atopvisenyashill]

What if Ned and Catelyn were gender bent? And let's assume they still get married though this time they're betrothed from the get-go what happens? How does this change things? Who does Lysa marry now that she's the only Tully daughter? Does Littlefinger fall for her instead? Who does Robert want to marry if he's not friends with Ned? Who is Lyanna betrothed to?

i rewrote this answer ten times sorry.

firstly - we know who lysa was supposed to marry and that’s jaime. if the northern-riverlands alliance is already there with nedcat, hoster is gonna look at the westerlands and the eyrie, his powerful neighbors, for lysa. i imagine the jaime to jon arryn pipeline goes the same for her regardless of how the plot changes. however, lysa without a perfect older sister to feel inferior to is gonna be a vastly different person, and a petyr without an unattainable and perfect cat to get fixated on is also wildly different. maybe those two crazy kids try to run away when hoster & tywin start talking engagements, esp since jaime & cersei are ALSO plotting, but i canNot imagine petyr and lysa are particularly successful.

when it comes to robert, that is admittedly tricky - rickard sends ned to foster at the vale in part because robert is there, but benjen is several years younger than ned and that bond might not exist so seriously without ned there (and, if you want my opinion, the smartest thing to do in this situation is actually for brandon to marry cat and ned to marry robert, and use Lyanna's hand for someone else later on). there's also the debate over how in on the "southron ambitions" stuff Steffon, so Robert marrying Lyanna might have been more Robert's fancy and Rickard's political machinations than anything Steffon would have pushed for. Given Jon Arryn's mentorship of Robert, though, Robert would likely lean whatever way Jon Arryn leans, and Jon Arryn is very likely in on the southron ambitions shenanigans which means Robert is looking outside the Stormlands for a bride.

as for rickard - i don't know that I buy some of Barbrey Dustin's more tinfoil-y "the maesters are trying to control Westeros" ideas, but I firmly believe that the lords were getting some bad vibes from aerys and started making alliances through marriages to prepare for another civil war. rickard has the riverlands locked in, now he wants a wife for his heir. mind you, "most eligible bachelorette" for brandon has a lot of crossover with rhaegar and robert in previous asks - Mina and Jana Tyrell, Cersei Lannister, Elia Martell. Given that Rickard's maester, Walys, is a Hightower bastard, Walys might push Malora, Denyse, or Leyla for a marriage match as well. And mind you, this is the list for Robert as well, with the addition of Lyanna. Very likely when Rickard goes engagement hunting, Jon Arryn suggests Lyanna for Robert - Lyanna's options (if we're looking at the important families) include Jaime, Elbert Arryn, maybe Oberyn, Willas, and Robert. If I'm Jon Arryn, I'm probably wondering if I can get Elbert and Lyanna hitched (considering how often the Arryn line is wiped out, it's important to get your relatives hitched and having kids, lmaooo) and if I'm Rickard and I can't get the Tyrells to bite at either Brandon or Lyanna, I'm probably looking at a Hightower so I have some friends in the Reach, and Robert.