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adelaideattractions · 5 years

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'Violent tornado' hits Missouri

A violent tornado touched down in Jefferson City, Missouri, causing heavy damage as it tore through neighbourhoods. The National Weather Service reports that a confirmed large and destructive tornado was observed over Jefferson City at 11.43pm Wednesday local time, moving northeast at 64km/h. The capital city has a population of about 40,000 and is located 209 kilometres west of St. Louis. Jefferson City Police Lt. David Williams said they have received multiple calls of people being trapped in their homes. Its a chaotic situation right now, Williams said. We need people who are not affected to stay out of those areas. Williams spoke from the Cole County Sheriffs office, where debris such as insulation, roofing shingles and metal pieces lay on the ground outside the front doors. Power outages are being reported in parts of the city.

media_cameraThis still image taken from video provided by Shayla Brooks shows a tornado north of the Joplin airport. Picture: Shayla Brooks via AP More dangerous severe weather tornadoes and flash flooding expected overnight, according to a tweet from Missouri Public Safety. The National Weather Service said it had received 22 reports of tornadoes by late Wednesday evening, although some of those could be duplicate reporting of the same twister. In Jefferson City, the state capital, there is extensive damage along Ellis Boulevard near Highway 54. Power lines are down. Traffic is being diverted as @MSHPTrooperGHQ & local first responders go door-to-door. Consider all power lines live. Stay out of areas with damage. #MoWx pic.twitter.com/cPWQi1tzCJ MO Public Safety (@MoPublicSafety) May 23, 2019 One tornado skirted just a few miles north of Joplin, Missouri, on the eighth anniversary of a catastrophic tornado that killed 161 people in the city. The tornado caused some damage in the town of Carl Junction, about 6.44 kilometres north of the Joplin airport. Storms and torrential rains have ravaged the Midwest, from Texas through Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska, Iowa, Missouri and Illinois. Two barges broke loose and floated swiftly down the swollen Arkansas River in eastern Oklahoma on Wednesday, spreading alarm downstream as they threatened to hit a dam. Authorities urged residents of several small towns in Oklahoma and Kansas to leave their homes as rivers and streams rose. The Arkansas River town of Webbers Falls, Oklahoma, was one such town. Town officials ordered a mandatory evacuation Wednesday afternoon because of the rivers rising level. But Wednesday evening, a posting on the towns official Facebook page sounded the alarm about the runaway barges for its 600 residents: Evacuate Webbers Falls immediately. The barges are loose and has the potential to hit the lock and dam 16. If the dam breaks, it will be catastrophic!! Leave now!! There was no word by midnight Wednesday where the barges were on the river, but local television stations showing live video of the river and the lock and dam said they had not yet arrived. The Arkansas River was approaching historic highs, while the already high Missouri and Mississippi Rivers were again rising after a multi-day stretch of storms that produced dozens of tornadoes. Forecasters predicted parts of Oklahoma, Missouri and Kansas could see more severe weather on Thursday. Deaths from this weeks storms include a 74-year-old woman found early Wednesday morning in Iowa. Officials there say she was killed by a possible tornado that damaged a farmstead in Adair County. Missouri authorities said heavy rain was a contributing factor in the deaths of two people in a traffic accident Tuesday near Springfield. A fourth weather-related death may have occurred in Oklahoma, where the Highway Patrol said a woman apparently drowned after driving around a barricade Tuesday near Perkins, about 72 kilometres northeast of Oklahoma City. The unidentified womans body was sent to the state medical examiners office to confirm the cause of death. Oklahoma Department of Emergency Management spokeswoman Keli Cain said she isnt yet listed as what would be the states first storm-related death. Originally published as Violent tornado hits Missouri https://www.adelaidenow.com.au/technology/large-and-destructive-missouri-tornado-hits-as-locals-evacuate/news-story/1890fd6ab99c46fb69600688f1ce85d3?from=htc_rss

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georgecmatthews · 4 years

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Three reasons why this isn’t another ‘tech bubble’

It feels like investors have been on a wild ride over the past week as tech stocks plunged, dragging down major global indexes with them. A few factors contributed to the fall: The first was Senator Mitch McConnell’s comments that a US fiscal stimulus deal may not come to fruition in the next few weeks. Then, concerns rose about the potential for a contested election in the US presidential race if no clear winner is declared on election night. Add to that concerns about frothy valuations in the tech space — the result was a very substantial sell-off for tech stocks with reverberations in global markets.

Some are suggesting this is the start of another dramatic sell-off, similar to the spring of 2000 when the “tech bubble” burst. I highly doubt that. Yes, this sell-off was significant, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see it continue over the coming days. However, I warned just a few weeks ago that we should be prepared for the possibility of a sell-off after such a strong rally. I think of this rout not so much as a correction, but as a digestion given that the NASDAQ Composite rose more than 60% from its March bottom in the course of less than six months.1 All In all, I think this is a healthy period of consolidation after a dramatic run-up.

Below are three reasons why I believe that tech stocks are not experiencing another bursting bubble:

1. Today’s interest rate environment is much different

First of all, the interest rate environment is very different in 2020 than it was in 2000. Recall that in the summer of 1999, the Federal Reserve (Fed) began raising rates. By March 2000, the effective fed funds rate was 6.17%.2 After stocks began falling, the Fed kept raising rates. By June 2000, the effective funds rate was 6.86%.2

By contrast, the effective fed funds rate in August 2020 was 0.10%.2 And we just heard from Fed Chair Jay Powell in his Jackson Hole speech that the Fed is changing its inflation targeting policy to be even more accommodative. In other words, this is a very different monetary policy environment than what we saw in 2000 when the tech bubble burst.

2. Key themes may support long-term tech growth

The technology sector has been benefiting from several key themes that have emerged in the pandemic, and I believe many of those themes are likely to be enduring:

“Be at Home” theme. Spending more time at home is perhaps the most obvious theme that has emerged in the pandemic. This includes those people who are working from home, being educated from home, and/or exercising from home. I think of it as a much larger version of the “nesting” theme experienced in the United States after 9/11, when many Americans were fearful of traveling due to terrorism and spent far more time at home. Today, many people around the world are spending money to renovate and retrofit their houses to their needs, and companies are spending more on technology to ensure employees can work efficiently from home. In my view, beneficiaries have included a variety of technology companies — especially software, storage, and security — as well as home improvement companies, online education companies, and digital health companies. All these themes should endure post-pandemic, in my view, although with varying degrees of popularity (online education being the least popular given the difficulties associated with at-home learning for children; I can vouch for this conclusion personally).

E-commerce. Purchasing goods online is a long-term trend that accelerated dramatically during the pandemic for obvious reasons. The safety and ease of pressing a button at home and having goods delivered to one’s doorstep has proved indispensable during the pandemic. We expect the types of goods and services sold online to expand as the pandemic continues. Even when the pandemic has ended, e-commerce retailers are likely to retain a much higher share of overall retail sales than pre-pandemic. (Read more about the retail space in Invesco’s new “Imagine the Possibilities” series.)

Artificial intelligence. Artificial intelligence is a powerful innovation, and in my view, demand for it has only accelerated in the pandemic. For example, imaging methods and tools that utilize artificial intelligence are becoming increasingly useful in the detection and treatment of COVID-19. More generally, artificial intelligence is helping many businesses become more efficient and work smarter in this difficult environment. Natural language processing (NLP) is a subset of artificial intelligence that is specifically concerned with the interactions between human linguistics and computers, such as speech recognition. Artificial intelligence has the potential to dramatically enhance productivity, and so I believe it may be a powerful trend that has staying power beyond the pandemic.

Automation — drones and robots. The pandemic has underscored the need for robots and drones to perform essential tasks without the possibility of catching or spreading the virus. For example, the more robotics on an assembly line, the less vulnerable it is to closure because of COVID-19. Similarly, drones are being developed to deliver goods, which would also help to reduce the vulnerability of an essential service during a pandemic. Beyond the pandemic, automation is likely to accelerate even further because of the productivity enhancements and cost efficiencies it provides.

Financial technology. Another trend that has received increased attention during the pandemic is cashless payments. The spread of COVID-19 has decreased the use of cash because of concerns that the physical exchange of money could spread the virus. A number of financial technology (fintech) companies have benefited from this trend, which is likely to continue post-pandemic. In my view, one notable fintech beneficiary of the pandemic should be blockchain, which has applications in many different industries and can help facilitate commerce without physical contact. For example, public land records can be digitally recorded via blockchain, reducing the need for physical record examinations as part of a title search. While this is particularly helpful in a pandemic, it may also be more efficient, which means it is likely to be a trend that has staying power. Interest has also been growing in tokenization and distributed ledger technology.

3. Progress is being made in the fight against COVID-19

No, I’m not one of the bright-eyed optimists who believes a vaccine will be available for distribution on Nov. 1 (my assumption is that an effective vaccine will be distributed by next summer). However, progress is certainly being made on therapies to reduce the severity of the novel coronavirus. The World Health Organization (WHO) made an important announcement last week based on evidence from several recently published clinical trials. The WHO recognized the efficacy of steroid drug use in reducing the severity of COVID-19, and it recommended that doctors use steroid drugs to combat the virus in severe cases.

In general, doctors and hospitals have learned much from fighting the virus thus far, and those learnings have already reduced mortality rates — just consider how much higher the mortality rate was in the Northeast US this March and April versus the mortality rates in other parts of the US in the late spring and summer. In my view, that should be positive not only for the economy, but for stocks in general.

Conclusion

In summary, there are important reasons to be positive on the tech sector, in my view. That doesn’t mean there won’t be more down days or higher volatility, but I believe in the longer-term prospects for the sector. And I believe the bias remains upward for risk assets in general because of extremely accommodative monetary policy by central banks around the world, but most especially the Fed.

Footnotes

1 Source: Bloomberg, L.P. From March 23 through Sept. 2, 2020

2 Source for all fed funds rate numbers: Federal Reserve Economic Data

Important information

Blog header image: David Malan / Getty

All investing involves risk, including the risk of loss.

The NASDAQ Composite Index is the market capitalization-weighted index of approximately 3,000 common equities listed on the Nasdaq stock exchange.

The federal funds rate (or fed funds rate) is the rate at which banks lend balances to each other overnight.

Many products and services offered in technology-related industries are subject to rapid obsolescence, which may lower the value of the issuers.

Risk assets are generally described as any financial security or instrument, such as equities, commodities, high-yield bonds, and other financial products that carry risk and are likely to fluctuate in price.

The opinions referenced above are those of Kristina Hooper as of Sept. 8, 2020. These comments should not be construed as recommendations, but as an illustration of broader themes. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future results. They involve risks, uncertainties and assumptions; there can be no assurance that actual results will not differ materially from expectations.

from Expert Investment Views: Invesco Blog https://www.blog.invesco.us.com/three-reasons-why-this-isnt-another-tech-bubble/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=three-reasons-why-this-isnt-another-tech-bubble

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aaronsniderus · 6 years

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Government Shutdown Avoided, Consumer Sentiment Jumps – Market Update

I hope everyone had a great weekend! A bunch of family I hadn’t seen in a while was in town, and the cherry on top was that my basketball team snapped a three-game losing streak heading into their matchup with their crosstown rivals this coming Saturday. I’m feeling pretty good for a Monday.

There’s also reason for optimism in the markets. The second government shutdown in less than a month was avoided. There was also hope for a resolution of trade talks with China. Let’s jump in.

Headline News

Quicken Loans Home Price Perception Index (HPPI)

Homeowners and appraisers were further apart on opinions of home value for the third consecutive month in January. Homeowners overvalued their homes by an average of 0.47% across the country.

There are signs that home prices in the West are starting to moderate. Just a year ago, appraised values in San Francisco were coming in 2.11% higher than homeowner estimates. Now, these same estimates are less than 1% higher than appraised prices.

Despite this, homeowners in the West were still nearest to appraised value in their estimates, overvaluing their properties by just 0.37%. Meanwhile, the South and Northeast were close on each other’s heels, overestimating property value by 0.46% and 0.47%, respectively. The Midwest lagged the field, overvaluing homes by 0.62%.

Looking at the city data, Boston has the hottest market in comparison to homeowner expectations. Appraisals are coming in an average of 2.76% higher than the best guess of area homeowners. The Windy City is on the other side of the scale, but at 1.87% below homeowner estimates, they’re steadily moving closer to harmony. Riverside, California, homeowners had estimates closest to the button, undervaluing properties by just 0.02%.

Quicken Loans Home Value Index (HVI)

Home values were up 0.65% on the month and have increased 5.35% since January 2018. Home values are still on the uptick, but the rate of appreciation is slower than it was in December. This might be helpful to buyers who are looking for prices to level off slightly.

On a regional basis, the South was the hottest market, having seen values rise 1.34% on the month and 6.84% annually. Next was the Northeast, up 0.59% and 4.74% since January 2018. Meanwhile, values in the Midwest were down slightly, dropping 0.08%. They’re still up 4.42% on the year. Finally, home values are down 0.38% in the West, rising just 3.27% yearly.

MBA Mortgage Applications

Despite the average rate on a 30-year fixed conforming mortgage falling four basis points to come in at 4.69%, mortgage applications were down 3.7% overall. Refinance applications were down 0.1% while applications to purchase fell 6%.

The MBA attributes the weakness in the report to concerns about the American and world economies, although continued workforce strength still has the association expecting a strong purchase season.

Consumer Price Index (CPI)

In the first of two major inflation reports released on back-to-back days this week, prices on the consumer side were flat in January. On the year, overall prices have only risen 1.6%, down from a 1.9% pace of appreciation in December.

Energy prices were down 3.1% overall and 5.5% at the gas pump. On the year, energy prices are down 4.8% with gas prices dropping 10.1%. This has had a major effect on the overall inflation rate, which is up 0.2% on the month and 2.2% on the year when food and energy were taken out.

Transportation costs were also down 1.3%, which is blamed on weak energy prices. Even those seeing gains only saw small increases. Prices for housing, medical care, food and new vehicles were each only up 0.2%, while the price for used cars rose 0.1%.

Other categories mentioned included education, up 0.3%. Prescription drugs and communication costs were both flat. The only area that saw a serious pickup was apparel, which had a 1.1% monthly rise. Still, prices in that category are only up 0.1% on the year.

Jobless Claims

The Department of Labor reported a 4,000-claim increase in weekly jobless claims last week, settling at 239,000. The four-week average of initial claims was up 6,750 to come in at 231,750. The four-week average has been higher due to the effects of the government shutdown.

However, claims from federal employees were down more than 5,500 last week and the impact on weekly numbers does appear to be waning.

On the continuing claims side, these were up 37,000 last week, checking in at 1.773 million. The four-week moving average of continuing claims went up 11,000 to 1.75 million.

Producer Price Index (PPI)

Prices were flat for consumers, and costs fell on the producer’s side of things, down 0.1% on the month of January. As with the consumer number, the price drop could be traced back to cheap energy, where prices were down 3.8% for producers.

When food and energy were taken out, prices were up 0.3%. In addition to the drop in energy prices, there was also a dip in the cost of fruits and vegetables.

In the final breaking out of subcomponents, producer inflation was up only 0.2% when excluding food, energy and trade services. The latter, which tracks activity by producers at the wholesale and retail level, was up 0.8% in January after falling 0.1% in December.

Other categories of note included automobiles, which were up 0.5% in January including a 0.3% gain for light trucks. Construction saw a 0.6% cost uptick after being on the south side of inflation for the last couple of months. Finally, prices for cigarettes and computers were each up 0.4%.

Retail Sales

In a major miss, retail sales fell 1.2% when finally released for December. This data had been delayed due to the government shutdown. The expectation had been for a 0.1% increase in sales. It would’ve been even worse if cars didn’t have a strong month, as sales were down 1.8% when automobiles were taken out. When taking out cars and gas, sales were down 1.4%. Finally, the declines were broad-based. A control group meant to help take out some of the categories that are more prone to fluctuation was down 1.7%.

Outside of cars, the only major group to exhibit a gain was building materials, up 0.3%. Sales at non-store retailers – think e-commerce sites – were down 3.9% in what was apparently a disappointing holiday shopping season. Sales for apparel fell 0.7% and department stores fell off 3.3% on the month. Sales at restaurants were down 0.7% on the month. A 5.1% downturn in gas sales definitely didn’t help things.

Total sales growth for the year was down almost 2%, coming in at 2.3%, the lowest rate since late 2016. Some would say this is a harbinger of recession, but it’s hard to say how much these numbers were affected by furloughs and layoffs from the government shutdown. Consumer confidence and spending are the lowest they’ve been in two years, so it’s something we’ll be keeping an eye on.

Industrial Production

Industrial production didn’t have a good month in January. Led by a 0.9% fall in manufacturing, overall production was down 0.6%. There was also a sizable 0.6% decrease in the space being utilized in factories, with them using just 78.2% of their total.

Vehicle production was down 8.8% in January in contrast to recent sales numbers. Factories do switch over in December for the new model and it’s probably taking time to get back up to speed. Business equipment manufacturing was also down 1.5% in January, though.

Utilities were up 0.4%, with mining up 0.1%. Despite being on the low end of improvement in January, mining is up 15.3% on the year.

Consumer Sentiment

In a bright spot, consumer sentiment did increase in preliminary numbers for February. Sentiment was up 4.3 points to come in at 95.5. The end of the government shutdown definitely helped.

Expectations were up 6.3 points to come in at 86.2, which is just slightly below where it was before the shutdown. Meanwhile, the current conditions reading increased more than a point to 110. It’s still the lowest reading this portion of the index has seen since August of last year.

Consumers are signaling that they don’t expect prices to rise very much anytime soon. Inflation expectations over the next year were down 0.2% at 2.5%. Over the next five years, inflation is expected to rise just 2.3%, which is down 0.3% from the last reading.

Mortgage Rates

Over the past couple of months, mortgage rates have consistently been trending lower. In fact, data collected by Freddie Mac shows that fixed rates were generally lower last week than they were at the same time a year ago.

It’s a great time to lock your mortgage rate right now because rates are looking really good despite a strong labor market. Usually, when the economy is this healthy, we would expect to see higher interest rates. If you’re in the market to purchase or refinance, it’s a great time to take advantage before rates pop back up.

The average interest rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage with 0.4 points paid in fees was down four basis points to 4.37%. Last year at this time, the rate was 4.38%.

Meanwhile, the average interest rate on shorter-term 15-year fixed loans fell three basis points to come in at 3.81% with 0.4 points paid. A year ago, the rate was 3.84%.

Finally, the average rate on a 5-year treasury-indexed, hybrid adjustable rate mortgage (ARM) with 0.3 points paid was down three basis points to check in at 3.88%. This is up from 3.63% last year.

Stock Market

The stock market had renewed optimism for a trade deal between the U.S. and China. As a result, stocks were up on Friday. Stocks had also been buoyed last week when a government shutdown was averted as President Trump signed the bill put forth by Congress to provide long-term government funding. He’ll attempt to provide funding for border security measures through the declaration of a national emergency. This isn’t what either side wanted, but at least the government is operating.

Finally, energy prices were up on Friday for the first time in a while as the price of a key oil benchmark, West Texas Intermediate, was up 2.2% to $55.59 per barrel in futures trading.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 3.09% on the week after finishing Friday at 25,883.25, up 443.86 points to end the week. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 was up 29.87 points to finish at 2,775.60, up 2.5% for the week. Finally, the Nasdaq finished at 7,472.41, up 45.45 points on Friday and increasing 2.39% over the previous five-day span.

The Week Ahead

Monday, February 18

The stock and bond markets as well as many banks are closed today in observance of Presidents Day and George Washington’s birthday. Quicken Loans is open.

Tuesday, February 19

Housing Market Index (10:00 a.m. ET) – The National Association of Home Builders produces a housing market index based on a survey in which respondents from the organization are asked to rate the general economy and housing market conditions. The index is a weighted average of separate diffusion indexes, including present sales of new homes, sales of new homes expected in the next six months and traffic of prospective buyers in new homes.

Wednesday, February 20

MBA Mortgage Applications (7:00 a.m. ET) – The mortgage applications index measures applications to mortgage lenders. This is a leading indicator for single-family home sales and housing construction.

Thursday, February 21

Durable Goods Orders (8:30 a.m. ET) – These are based on new orders placed with domestic manufacturers for factory goods.

Jobless Claims (8:30 a.m. ET) – New unemployment claims are compiled weekly to show the number of individuals filing for unemployment insurance for the first time. An increasing trend suggests a deteriorating labor market. The four-week moving average of new claims smooths out weekly volatility.

Existing Home Sales (10:00 a.m. ET) – Existing Home Sales tallies the number of previously constructed homes, condominiums and co-ops that were sold during the month. Existing homes (also known as “home resales”) account for a larger share of the market than new homes and indicate housing market trends.

There’s not much market moving data coming this week outside of durable goods orders. The biggest event this week is the release of the minutes from the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee. We don’t cover that in a great deal of depth here because it involves parsing meeting dialogue for highly technical economic details. However, if the market has any reaction to insights that come out of the meeting dialogue, we’ll have the movements covered.

Economics and mortgage data aren’t always the most exciting topics. Not to worry! We’ve got plenty of home, money and lifestyle content to share with you if you subscribe to the Zing Blog below. This week, we thought we would highlight some ways you can turn your bathroom into the spa of your dreams. Have a great week!

The post Government Shutdown Avoided, Consumer Sentiment Jumps – Market Update appeared first on ZING Blog by Quicken Loans.

from Updates About Loans https://www.quickenloans.com/blog/government-shutdown-avoided-consumer-sentiment-jumps-market-update

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mikebrackett · 6 years

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Government Shutdown Avoided, Consumer Sentiment Jumps – Market Update

There’s also reason for optimism in the markets. The second government shutdown in less than a month was avoided. There was also hope for a resolution of trade talks with China. Let’s jump in.

Headline News

Quicken Loans Home Price Perception Index (HPPI)

Homeowners and appraisers were further apart on opinions of home value for the third consecutive month in January. Homeowners overvalued their homes by an average of 0.47% across the country.

Quicken Loans Home Value Index (HVI)

MBA Mortgage Applications

The MBA attributes the weakness in the report to concerns about the American and world economies, although continued workforce strength still has the association expecting a strong purchase season.

Consumer Price Index (CPI)

Jobless Claims

However, claims from federal employees were down more than 5,500 last week and the impact on weekly numbers does appear to be waning.

On the continuing claims side, these were up 37,000 last week, checking in at 1.773 million. The four-week moving average of continuing claims went up 11,000 to 1.75 million.

Producer Price Index (PPI)

When food and energy were taken out, prices were up 0.3%. In addition to the drop in energy prices, there was also a dip in the cost of fruits and vegetables.

Retail Sales

Industrial Production

Utilities were up 0.4%, with mining up 0.1%. Despite being on the low end of improvement in January, mining is up 15.3% on the year.

Consumer Sentiment

In a bright spot, consumer sentiment did increase in preliminary numbers for February. Sentiment was up 4.3 points to come in at 95.5. The end of the government shutdown definitely helped.

Mortgage Rates

The average interest rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage with 0.4 points paid in fees was down four basis points to 4.37%. Last year at this time, the rate was 4.38%.

Meanwhile, the average interest rate on shorter-term 15-year fixed loans fell three basis points to come in at 3.81% with 0.4 points paid. A year ago, the rate was 3.84%.

Finally, the average rate on a 5-year treasury-indexed, hybrid adjustable rate mortgage (ARM) with 0.3 points paid was down three basis points to check in at 3.88%. This is up from 3.63% last year.

Stock Market

Finally, energy prices were up on Friday for the first time in a while as the price of a key oil benchmark, West Texas Intermediate, was up 2.2% to $55.59 per barrel in futures trading.

The Week Ahead

Monday, February 18

The stock and bond markets as well as many banks are closed today in observance of Presidents Day and George Washington’s birthday. Quicken Loans is open.

Tuesday, February 19

Wednesday, February 20

Thursday, February 21

Durable Goods Orders (8:30 a.m. ET) – These are based on new orders placed with domestic manufacturers for factory goods.

The post Government Shutdown Avoided, Consumer Sentiment Jumps – Market Update appeared first on ZING Blog by Quicken Loans.

from Updates About Loans https://www.quickenloans.com/blog/government-shutdown-avoided-consumer-sentiment-jumps-market-update

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victorparker1-blog · 6 years

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The Most Crowded Trade + Consumer Expectations Signal Recession

Usually investors like to fade sentiment surveys because when the crowd is leaning in one direction, the pain trade is a reversal. The huge long position in oil this year eventually led to a 40% decline in WTI from the October high. The highly positive equity sentiment in January 2018 led to a correction. On the contrary, the Merrill Lynch fund managers’ survey has a great track record of predicting results.

As you can see from the chart below, the long FAANG trade was considered the most crowded trade in the summer and fall of this year.

Source: Merrill Lynch

Each stock in that grouping has subsequently fallen over 20% from its high. This survey named short volatility and long bitcoin as the most crowded trades before they reversed as well. Now the most crowded trade is long the U.S. dollar. It didn’t garner a huge percentage like long FAANG did earlier this year, but it’s still noteworthy. Two potential catalysts for a weak dollar could be the Fed ending its rate hikes and U.S. economic growth slowing.

Global Economic Weakness, But No Recession?

The December survey on the global economy is curious. As you can see from the top chart below, only about 10% of respondents think there will be a global economic recession in 2019.

Source: Merrill Lynch

On the other hand, the bottom chart above shows the lowest net percentage of fund managers since 2008 think real global growth will improve in the next 12 months. These two charts don’t necessarily contradict each other because growth can slow without a recession.

That being said, we think it makes more sense to trust the bottom chart than the top one. It is very difficult to model recessions. Fund managers don’t want to make that tough prediction. It’s rare for so many fund managers to be bearish on future growth without a recession happening afterwards. On the other hand, if fewer fund managers expect growth to be stronger than when the survey was issued in 2008, that doesn’t mean this global recession will be worse than that one. The final aspect to note is this survey was very weak in 2006, meaning it was a tad early. There could be a global recession in 2020 or 2021, if this signal is early again.

Consumer Expectations Signal A Recession Is Coming

The consumer expectations index minus the current situation index in the consumer confidence report is signaling a recession is coming. Keep in mind, we’re not saying the consumer is currently weak. In the Redbook same store sales report, year over year growth was 7.1% in the week of December 15th. Growth of 7.9% during the week that included Black Friday was a 13 year high. November year over year retail sales growth was 4.2%. It was 4.6% ex-autos and ex-gas. Online sales were up 10.8% year over year.

We are reviewing where consumer spending is headed by showing the differential between expectations and the current situation. As you can see from the chart below, the current differential is worse than the last cycle, but still higher than the 1990s cycle. Recessions come after this indicator bottoms, and there isn’t much room for it to fall further.

Source: Bloomberg

Housing Market Index Crashes

The December housing market index was a disaster as it fell from 60 to 56. This was below the consensus for 61 and below the low end of the consensus range which was 58. The index had fallen 8 points in November as well. The single family current sales index fell from 67 to 61. It was 80 last December. This is the weakest reading since May 2015.

The index of single family sales for the next 6 months fell from 65 to 61 which was the worst reading since March 2016. Finally, the traffic of prospective buyers index fell from 45 to 43. Since it is below 50, that means it is contracting. This is down from 58 in December of last year. It’s the weakest reading since March 2016. The Northeast had the weakest reading as it was 37. The other 3 regions were above 50 as the West’s index was 65.

As you can see from the chart below, the home builder sentiment reading leads the 3 month moving average of year over year consumer spending growth.

Source: Dr. Thomas K Swift

This chart shows the home builder sentiment index 12 months ahead of consumer spending to make the predictive power easier to see. It’s not a good combination to have a big negative differential between expectations and the current situation index and home building sentiment cratering. The consumer could have a rough time in the next 1-2 years.

Decent Housing Starts

The good news is seasonally adjusted November housing starts and permits increased from October. As you can see from the chart below, housing starts increased from 1.217 million to 1.256 million which beat estimates for 1.221 million.

Source: Econoday

Housing permits increased from 1.265 million to 1.328 million. This beat estimates for 1.255 million. It’s great for starts and permits to increase because starts are very low compared to previous cycle peaks. The strength was in multi-family units as starts increased from 353,000 to 432,000 and permits increased from 418,000 to 480,000. Completions rose from 279,000 to 327,000.

On the other hand, single family starts fell from 864,000 to 824,000 and permits were up slightly. Completions fell from 816,000 to 772,000. The bad news for GDP growth is that single family housing starts boost residential investment more than multi family starts.

Is Housing Affordable?

Bespoke Investment Group challenges the narrative that housing is terribly unaffordable even though surveys show it is unaffordable and shelter inflation has routinely been above wage growth this cycle. The top chart shows new ownership costs are only 20.69% of pre-tax median family income. However, this indicator shows the housing bubble peak didn’t have a very high unaffordability rate, which is a dubious claim.

Source: Bespoke Investment Group

The bottom chart above shows if a new home down payment is 70% of median family income, the percent people can put as a down payment has fallen. Even with this decline, the all-in cost shown in the top chart is manageable.

Conclusion

Being long the dollar is the new most overcrowded trade. Fund managers agree that growth will slow, but few think there will be a recession in 2019. Future consumer sentiment minus the current situation and the home builder sentiment index imply consumer spending growth will decline. Housing starts and permits improved in November. The bad news is housing starts fell 3.6% year over year and permits were only up 0.4%. Furthermore, multi family starts and permits were strong, but they were weak for single family homes. Bespoke Investment Group shows us analysis which says the all-in cost of homes is affordable.

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