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theliberaltony · 6 years

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via Politics – FiveThirtyEight

Welcome to our Election Update for Thursday, Nov. 1!

According to all three versions of our forecast — Lite, Classic and Deluxe — as of 9 a.m. Eastern, Republicans have a 6 in 7 chance of holding on to the Senate. Every time a new poll fails to show Democrats gaining ground, the party’s window to turn things around closes a little bit further. Their 15.3 percent chance of flipping the chamber (according to the Classic version of our model) is one of the lowest we’ve seen all cycle.

With numbers like that, the Senate may seem like a foregone conclusion. But that would be the wrong way to approach it. Even if Republicans hold the Senate, the margin by which they do so could be decisive for future elections. In contrast to the 2018 Senate map, which presented Democrats with very few opportunities for gains and exposed tons of vulnerabilities, the 2020 Senate map has several possible openings for Democrats. Republicans picked up seven seats from Democrats in the 2014 elections, including in the swing states of Colorado, Iowa and North Carolina. That means Democrats will be able to play offense when those seats are up again in 2020 and may have a decent chance of flipping the chamber — as long as 2018 doesn’t dig them into too deep a hole.

The 2020 Senate battleground

Senators up for re-election in 2020 and their state’s partisan lean*

Incumbent Name Party State Partisan Lean Michael Enzi R Wyoming R+47.4 James Risch R Idaho R+34.9 James Inhofe R Oklahoma R+33.9 Mike Rounds R South Dakota R+30.6 Shelley Moore Capito R West Virginia R+30.5 Lamar Alexander R Tennessee R+28.1 Doug Jones D Alabama R+26.8 Tom Cotton R Arkansas R+24.4 Ben Sasse R Nebraska R+24.0 Pat Roberts R Kansas R+23.3 Mitch McConnell R Kentucky R+23.3 Steve Daines R Montana R+17.7 Bill Cassidy R Louisiana R+17.3 Lindsey Graham R South Carolina R+17.2 John Cornyn R Texas R+16.9 Cindy Hyde-Smith† R Mississippi R+15.4 Dan Sullivan R Alaska R+14.9 David Perdue R Georgia R+11.8 OPEN (Jon Kyl)^ R Arizona R+9.3 Joni Ernst R Iowa R+5.8 Thom Tillis R North Carolina R+5.1 Jeanne Shaheen D New Hampshire R+1.7 Mark Warner D Virginia D+0.1 Gary Peters D Michigan D+1.3 Cory Gardner R Colorado D+1.5 Tina Smith† D Minnesota D+2.1 Susan Collins R Maine D+4.9 Tom Udall D New Mexico D+7.2 Jeff Merkley D Oregon D+8.7 Dick Durbin D Illinois D+13.0 Cory Booker D New Jersey D+13.3 Chris Coons D Delaware D+13.6 Jack Reed D Rhode Island D+25.7 Ed Markey D Massachusetts D+29.4

* Partisan lean is the average difference between how a state or district voted and how the country voted overall. In our new partisan lean formula, 2016 presidential election results are weighted 50 percent, 2012 presidential election results are weighted 25 percent, and results from elections for the state legislature are weighted 25 percent.

† Assuming the incumbent wins a special election in 2018.

^ Sen. Jon Kyl was appointed to serve out the remainder of the late John McCain’s term but has declared he will not run for a full term in 2020.

Sources: U.S. Senate, The New York Times

As you can see in the table above, Democrats have two obvious targets in 2020: Maine Sen. Susan Collins and Colorado Sen. Cory Gardner, the only two Republicans up for re-election in blue states. Four more Republicans sit in states that lean Republican by no more than 12 points,1 and so might be beatable in a favorable election environment or with the right candidates. Of course, it’s not a given that Democrats will add any seats at all to their total in 2020: Sen. Doug Jones faces an uphill fight in deep-red Alabama. What’s more, six more Democratic seats are also plausibly vulnerable.2

Granted, we have no idea what the political climate will be in 2020. (We’re still not sure what will happen five days from now!) But bear in mind that, although Democrats faced a terrible environment in 2010, President Barack Obama was comfortably re-elected just two years later, so even if Democrats prove to have a strong 2018, that doesn’t mean the GOP can’t turn it around in 2020. And if 2020 is a strong Republican year, Democrats probably have no chance at picking up the Senate no matter what happens in 2018. But let’s assume there’s no red wave in 2020 and that, thanks to the power of incumbency, Democrats are favored to hold all their current seats except Alabama in two years. What can they do in 2018 to make their task in 2020 as easy as possible?

Other than picking up the Senate outright, Democrats’ best bet is to make a net gain of one seat (say, picking up Arizona — where Democratic Rep. Kyrsten Sinema currently has a 3 in 5 chance — while holding on to North Dakota or ousting Sen. Dean Heller in Nevada). That would create a 50-50 tie in the chamber3 — and there’s a 14.6 percent chance that will happen, per our forecast. In that scenario, Democrats would have plenty of paths to a majority in 2020: They could hold Alabama and flip either Colorado or Maine; they could flip both Colorado and Maine while losing Alabama; they could even get away with winning just one of those three states if they also win the vice presidency (and therefore the tiebreaking vote).

But according to the model, there’s a very real chance that the Senate’s balance of power will simply stay the same: 51 Republicans, 49 Democrats. If that happens (our model gives it a 17.7 percent chance as of 9 a.m.), Democrats would need to hold on to Alabama and win both Maine and Colorado — or else pick up a seat in one of the four closest Republican-leaning states.4

But our forecast also gives Republicans a 17.3 percent chance to net one seat and secure a 52-48 majority. In this scenario, maybe Republicans win with Missouri Attorney General Josh Hawley in that state (a 2 in 5 chance) in addition to Kevin Cramer in North Dakota, while Democrats win with Sinema in Arizona. That would be a big win for the GOP because it would force Democrats to hold Alabama, win both Maine and Colorado, and pick up a Senate seat in a red state in 2020 to gain a majority. Based on states’ partisan leans,5 their easiest target would be Sen. Thom Tillis in North Carolina, which is 5 points more Republican-leaning than the nation as a whole. But we’re starting to get into scenarios where a relatively neutral political environment in 2020 would be enough for Republicans to easily keep the Senate that year.

Let’s say Republicans net two seats in 2018 — something our model assigns a 13.8 percent chance of happening. (For example, if the GOP holds on to Arizona while picking up North Dakota and Missouri.) Then in 2020 Democrats would need to hold on to all of their current seats (including Alabama) and flip four Republican seats. Their most plausible targets would be Collins, Gardner, Tillis and Sen. Joni Ernst in Iowa. Iowa is about as red as North Carolina, so Ernst wouldn’t necessarily be a tougher target than Tillis, but Democrats couldn’t afford to lose even one of those races, so the odds would be stacked against them.

Finally, there’s a roughly 21 percent chance that the dam breaks and Republicans net three or more Senate seats this year. Democrats might lose their grip on seats like Indiana (where former Republican state Rep. Mike Braun has a 2 in 7 chance) or Florida (Gov. Rick Scott also has a 2 in 7 chance) in this scenario. The party would really have its work cut out for it in this case: Democrats would have to win all the seats outlined above plus places like Arizona or Georgia. Arizona may be feasible for Democrats in 2020, since it will likely be an open seat6 in a diversifying state. But that’s true of Arizona this year, too.

This is all speculation, of course. There are lots of moving parts in both 2018 (who will win and where) and 2020 (which incumbents will retire, whether the political environment will improve or worsen for Republicans). But it’s a useful exercise in understanding why Democrats should absolutely be sweating the difference between picking up one seat and losing one. Control of the chamber is at stake in 2018 … and in 2020.

#IFTTT #Politics – FiveThirtyEight #politics #538 #Nathaniel Rakich

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patriotsnet · 3 years

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How Many Seats Do The Republicans Have In The Senate

New Post has been published on https://www.patriotsnet.com/how-many-seats-do-the-republicans-have-in-the-senate/

How Many Seats Do The Republicans Have In The Senate

Dems Keep House Gop Holds Key Senate Seats Nbc News Projects

WASHINGTON Democrats will maintain of the House of Representatives, NBC News projects, but their path to taking control of the Senate has narrowed significantly as numerous Republican incumbents fended off strong opposition.

Democrats failed to pick up some of the Senate seats they were banking on to capture a majority. Their hopes for a big night were dashed up and down the ballot, as President Donald Trump outperformed his polls against Joe Biden in a race still to be decided.

In Maine, Republican Sen. Susan Collins was by NBC News as the apparent winner.

Other GOP senators who were Democratic targets hung on: Iowa Sen. Joni Ernst, Montana Sen. Steve Daines and South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham were all re-elected, NBC News projected.

Adding some uncertainty, the Georgia special election is headed to a runoff on Jan. 5 between Democrat Raphael Warnock and Republican Sen. Kelly Loeffler, NBC News projects.

Democrats will pick up a Senate seat in Colorado as John Hickenlooper is projected by NBC News to unseat Republican Sen. Cory Gardner, marking the partyâs first gain.

Offsetting that, Republicans will pick up a seat in Alabama, where Republican Tommy Tuberville is projected to defeat Democratic Sen. Doug Jones, NBC News projects.

In Arizona, the Democratic challenger Mark Kelly leads but NBC News rates it âtoo early to call.â

In North Carolina, Republican Sen. Thom Tillis leads Democrat Cal Cunningham narrowly but the race is rated âtoo close to call.â

Will 2022 Be A Good Year For Republicans

A FiveThirtyEight Chat

Welcome to FiveThirtyEights politics chat. The transcript below has been lightly edited.

sarah : Were still more than a year away from the 2022 midterm elections, which means it will be a while before we should take those general election polls too seriously. But with a number of elections underway in 2021, not to mention a number of special elections, its worth kicking off the conversation around what we do and dont know about Republicans and Democrats odds headed into the midterms.

Lets start big picture. The longstanding conventional wisdom is that midterm elections generally go well for the party thats not in the White House. Case in point: Since 1946, the presidents party has lost, on average, 27 House seats.

What are our initial thoughts? Is the starting assumption that Republicans should have a good year in 2022?

alex : Yes, and heres why: 2022 will be the first federal election after the House map are redrawn. And because Democrats fell short of their 2020 expectations in state legislative races, Republicans have the opportunity to redraw congressional maps that are much more clearly in their favor. On top of that, Republicans are already campaigning on the cost and magnitude of President Bidens policy plans to inspire a backlash from voters.

geoffrey.skelley :Simply put, as that chart above shows, the expectation is that Democrats, as the party in the White House, will lose seats in the House.

nrakich : What they said!

United States Senate Elections 2020

November 3, 2020 U.S. Senate Elections by State U.S. House Elections

Elections to the U.S. Senate were held on November 3, 2020. A total of 33 of the 100 seats were up for regular election.

Those elected to the U.S. Senate in the 33 regular elections on November 3, 2020, began their six-year terms on January 3, 2021.

Special elections were also held to fill vacancies that occurred in the 116th Congress, including 2020 special U.S. Senate elections in Arizona for the seat that John McCain won in 2016 and in Georgia for the seat that Johnny Isakson won in 2016.

Twelve seats held by Democrats and 23 seats held by Republicans were up for election in 2020. Heading into the election, Republicans had a majority with 53 seats. Democrats needed a net gain of four seats, or three in addition to winning the presidential election, to take control of the chamber. The vice president casts tie-breaking votes in the Senate.

On this page, you will find:

Information on historical wave elections

Republicans On Course To Hold Senate Majority

WASHINGTON D.C, November 4, 2020 The Republican party looks set to hold its majority in the U.S. Senate, as election night draws to a close across the nation.

The latest figures show the Republicans with 47 confirmed seats and the Democrats with 45. At the time of writing only six seats remain unconfirmed: Alaska, Georgia, Georgia Special, Maine, Michigan, and North Carolina.

Republicans are on target to hold both North Carolina and Maine, and also have a healthy lead in Michigan which currently has 68% of the vote counted.

Georgia also looks secure for the Republicans, with Sen. Perdue on target to hold his seat.

Of the six unconfirmed seats, only Georgia Special is without a clear winner and deemed a runoff.

Alaska currently has only 39% of the vote counted, with Rep. Dan Sullivan leading his Democrat challenger by 61.7% to 33.7%. Polls predict that Republicans will hold the seat.

The Democrats took a victory in Colorado, winning the seat from the Republicans, and also took the win in the Arizona Special election, after the death of Republican John McCain left the seat open.

However, the Democrats also lost their Alabama seat, as pro-life Republican Tommy Tuberville won the seat from Sen. Doug Jones.

Republicans have held a majority in the Senate since 2014, and prior to November 3 election night, held 53 seats.

Twitter just deplatformed President Trump premanently! And, other conservatives, including General Flynn and Sidney Powell, were also deplatformed.

Incoming Biden Administration And Democratic House Wont Have To Deal With A Republican

Democrats Raphael Warnock and Jon Ossoff wave to supporters during a joint rally on Nov. 15 in Marietta, Ga.

1.285%

Democratic challengers Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock have defeated Georgias two incumbent Republican U.S. senators in the states runoff elections, the Associated Press said Wednesday, in a development that gives their party effective control of the Senate.

Ossoff and Warnock were projected the winners over Sens. David Perdue and Kelly Loeffler by the AP following campaigns that drew massive spending and worldwide attention because the runoffs were set to determine the balance of power in Washington. The AP , at about 2 a.m. Eastern, then followed with the call for Ossoff over Perdue on Wednesday afternoon.

President-elect Joe Bidens incoming administration and the Democratic-run House of Representatives now wont face the same checks on their policy priorities that they would have faced with a Republican-controlled Senate, though analysts have said the slim Democratic majority in the chamber could mean more power for moderate senators from either party.

It is looking like the Democratic campaign machine was more effective at driving turnout than the Republican one, said Eurasia Group analyst Jon Lieber in a note late Tuesday.

Warnock then made just before 8 a.m. Eastern time on Wednesday.

Iowa: Joni Ernst Vs Bruce Braley

Republican Joni Ernst defeated Rep. Bruce Braley in the Iowa Senate race to fill the open seat vacated by the retirement of Sen. Tom Harkin, a Democratic stalwart in the state. Ernst, 44, will be the first female senator to ever represent Iowa, a state that catapulted Barack Obamas career just six years ago.

Ernst, an Iraq war veteran, shocked the political establishment when she won a crowded GOP primary in June. Ernst, a little known state senator, burst onto the national scene after releasing an attention grabbing ad called Squeal, which featured her talking about castrating hogs.

Braley stumbled throughout his campaign from making remarks that insulted some Iowa farmers to threatening a lawsuit against his neighbor over roaming chickens. Republican and Democratic surrogates with potential 2016 ambitions flooded Iowa in the final weeks of the campaign to help their candidates.

Cori Bush Becomes Missouri’s First Black Congresswoman Cbs News Projects

Cori Bush, a progressive Democrat and activist, has become Missouri’s first Black congresswoman, according to CBS News projections. With 88% of votes reported, Bush is leading Republican Anthony Rogers 78.9% to 19% to represent the state’s first congressional district, which includes St. Louis and Ferguson.

Bush, 44, claimed victory on Tuesday, promising to bring change to the district. “As the first Black woman and also the first nurse and single mother to have the honor to represent Missouri in the United States Congress, let me say this: To the Black women, the Black girls, the nurses, the essential workers, the single mothers, this is our moment,” she told supporters in St. Louis.

Read more here.

The Winding Road To Democratic Control

Republicans claimed 50 Senate seats after the November election, two more than the 48 seats claimed by the Democratic Caucus at that time.

Georgias runoff election featured these match-ups:

Maine Senate Race A Toss

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The Alabama Senate race is leaning toward Republican Tommy Tuberville, who is taking on incumbent Senator Doug Jones, the most vulnerable Democrat in the Senate.

Trump’s Former Physician Wins House Seat

Republican Congressman Dan Crenshaw also won reelection. Crenshaw is a conservative firebrand and a rising GOP star in the House.

Why Is There An Election In Georgia

The election is being rerun because of Georgia’s rule that a candidate must take 50% of the vote in order to win.

None of the candidates in November’s general election met that threshold.

With 98% of votes counted, US TV networks and the Associated Press news agency called the first of the two races for Mr Warnock.

Control of the Senate in the first two years of Mr Biden’s term will be determined by the outcome of the second run-off.

Mr Warnock is set to become the first black senator for the state of Georgia – a slavery state in the US Civil War – and only the 11th black senator in US history.

He serves as the reverend of the Atlanta church where assassinated civil rights leader Martin Luther King Jr grew up and preached.

Claiming victory, he paid tribute to his mother, Verlene, who as a teenager worked as a farm labourer.

Mr Ossoff has also claimed victory in his race against Republican Senator David Perdue, but that race is even tighter. At 33, he would be the Senate’s youngest member for 40 years.

Mr Biden won at least seven million more votes than the president.

Us Election 2020: Democrats’ Hopes Of Gaining Control Of Senate Fade

Democrats are rapidly losing hope of gaining control of the US Senate after underperforming in key states.

Controlling the Senate would have allowed them to either obstruct or push through the next president’s agenda.

The party had high hopes of gaining the four necessary seats in Congress’s upper chamber, but many Republican incumbents held their seats.

The Democrats are projected to retain their majority in the lower chamber, the House, but with some key losses.

With many votes still to be counted, the final outcome for both houses may not be known for some time.

Why don’t we have a winner yet?

Among the disappointments for the Democrats was the fight for the seat in Maine, where Republican incumbent Susan Collins staved off a fierce challenge from Democrat Sara Gideon.

However, the night did see a number of firsts – including the first black openly LGBTQ people ever elected to Congress and the first openly transgender state senator.

This year’s congressional election is running alongside the battle for the White House between Donald Trump and his Democratic challenger Joe Biden.

Of the 35 Senate seats up for grabs, 23 were Republican-held and 12 were Democrat.

Senators serve six-year terms, and every two years a third of the seats are up for re-election.

Cal Cunningham Concedes North Carolina Senate Race

Democrat Cal Cunningham conceded in the North Carolina Senate race on Tuesday, saying in a statement that he had called Republican incumbent Senator Thom Tillis to congratulate him on his victory.

What Are The Magic Numbers

With numerous races still uncalled in the Senate election, so far the Democrats have flipped seats in Arizona and Colorado, but Republicans flipped an Alabama seat.

However, Republicans were leading in several Senate races that had yet to be called.

In North Carolina, Republican Thom Tillis declared victory, but, according to WSOC-TV, not all votes had yet been counted and the race was too close to call on November 4.

In one of the two Georgia Senate races, Republican David Perdue was also leading with most returns in.

Where It Stands: Election Hinges On Key States Final Results May Take A While

McConnell said the outcome of the presidential race is still unsettled and it may be another day or more before key Senate races are decided.

Could Flip Under The Right Conditions: Michigan Iowa Montana Kansas And Georgia Special Election

Democrats Probably Need To Win All Four Toss

youtube

Opinion:the House Looks Like A Gop Lock In 2022 But The Senate Will Be Much Harder

Lindsey Graham Wins Reelection In South Carolina Senate Race Cbs News Projects

Meanwhile, Republican Roger Marshall has also won the Senate race in Kansas, defeating Democrat Barbara Bollier.

Potentially Competitive Us Senate Races In 2022

Held by Republicans

Maggie Hassan Biden +7.4

Democrats control of the House is arguably more imperiled than their hold on the Senate. Thats a function of the Senate seats that are up for reelection as well as the lay of the land in the House.

About this story

source https://www.patriotsnet.com/how-many-seats-do-the-republicans-have-in-the-senate/

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vinayv224 · 4 years

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The future of the Senate majority could hinge on two Georgia runoffs

Sen. Kelly Loeffler, Rev. Raphael Warnock, Sen. David Perdue and Jon Ossoff. | Justin Sullivan; Jessica McGowan; Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call; Paras Griffin via Getty Images

It will take about two more months to know which party controls the Senate.

The battle for control of the US Senate could come down to Georgia.

Both of Georgia’s Senate races will go to a runoff election to be held on January 5, 2021. With a small number of votes still to be counted in Georgia, particularly in the Democratic-leaning Atlanta suburbs, Republican Sen. David Perdue did not hit the 50 percent threshold he needed to avoid a runoff race with Democrat Jon Ossoff.

As of 7 pm ET on November 5, Perdue was sitting at 49.89 percent, compared to 47.80 percent for Ossoff, according to Decision Desk.

That’s runoff No. 2 for Georgia voters. That result has already been determined for the race between Republican Sen. Kelly Loeffler and Democrat Rev. Raphael Warnock in the special election for a Senate seat vacated in 2019 by retiring Sen. Johnny Isakson. That special election initially featured 20 candidates in an all-party “jungle primary,” so a runoff was all but guaranteed.

Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images

Sen. Kelly Loeffler speaks to her supporters in Atlanta, Georgia, on November 3.

Jessica McGowan/Getty Images

Rev. Raphael Warnock arrives at his campaign’s election night event in Atlanta on November 3.

At first glance, this might be a surprise for national political observers. Georgia has a long history of being conservative. Even though it has elected statewide Democrats more recently than some of its Southern peers, they were often conservative white Democratic men.

But Georgia has the potential to flip for former Vice President Joe Biden and Sen. Kamala Harris, and now they have a shot at not one but two Democrats making competitive runs for the Senate.

“Democrats are going to be very excited in Georgia but also nationally,” University of Georgia political science professor Charles Bullock told Vox. “Ossoff and Warnock, any kind of resource or help they need, they’re going to get.”

Senate Democrats are still a few seats short of a Senate majority, but the fact that both Senate races in Georgia will go to a runoff means the battle for control of the Senate is not over just yet.

All eyes — and all fundraising dollars — are about to shift to Georgia for the next two months.

Why Georgia is so competitive this year

A traditionally Republican Southern state, Georgia has become more competitive for Democrats year after year.

“Counties and suburbs of Atlanta are moving at light speed away from Republicans,” said Cook Political Report Senate editor Jessica Taylor, who rates both Georgia races as toss-ups. “Trump has accelerated a more natural evolution, but that has made it hard.”

Atlanta’s diversifying suburbs were already worrisome for Republicans before 2020, but they appear to be the epicenter of Democratic strength this year. The GOP is also watching as existing trends are being hastened by a combination of white suburban voters moving away from Trump and increased turnout among Black voters.

The metro Atlanta area is booming, and a lot of people moving there are young and diverse. Increasingly, they’re voting Democratic.

Between 2010 and 2019, the area’s population grew from about 5.3 million people to more than 6 million, according to data from the US Census Bureau, reported by Curbed. That growth put the Atlanta metro area fourth in growth nationwide, behind Houston, Dallas, and Phoenix (Senate seats in Texas and Arizona were also considered Democratic targets this year).

“Every area in metro Atlanta is growing,” state Rep. Angelika Kausche, a Democrat, recently told Vox. “People come here for the education, for the schools, for the quality of life.” That has brought legions of diverse, younger voters to Atlanta’s metro area.

As the New York Times recently reported, “white residents now make up fewer than three in five voters in Georgia, and a wave of migration to the Atlanta area over the past decade has added roughly three quarters of a million people to the state’s major Democratic stronghold.”

Amid the influx to the Atlanta suburbs, political observers in Georgia have been watching elections get closer and closer. In the 2018 governor’s race, Democrat Stacey Abrams lost to then-Secretary of State Brian Kemp by a little more than 50,000 votes — a scare for Georgia Republicans. Still, Perdue’s campaign believes the Republican’s ability to draw more votes will boost him in the runoff.

“Perdue will finish this election in first place with substantially more votes than his Democrat opponent,” Perdue campaign manager Ben Fry said. “Currently, Perdue’s lead is double the margin of defeat that Stacey Abrams faced for governor just two years ago.”

John Bazemore/AP

Sen. David Perdue speaks to supporters in Atlanta on November 2.

Jessica McGowan/Getty Images

Jon Ossoff waves to supporters on November 3 in Atlanta.

The runoff could prove difficult for Democrats to win; the party’s strategy in Southern states like Georgia involved harnessing the large voter turnout that typically accompanies presidential elections. It could be hard for the candidates to muster the same level of enthusiasm for these runoff elections, which has often given Republicans the edge in past years.

“We haven’t had many general runoffs. The one constant has been Republicans won all of them,” Bullock told Vox. “Republicans have done a better job of getting their voters back to the polls.”

But, he added, “There being two high-profile runoffs, this may help Democrats get their voters out.”

Abrams’s group Fair Fight and other voting rights groups like the New Georgia Project have been putting a ton of effort into registering and turning out Black voters at high rates this year. The state has already hit record registration levels, with about 7.6 million voters registered. And since early voting started, more than 2.7 million voters have cast ballots — at least 1 million of whom were Black.

“Georgia has by far the largest percentage of Black voters of any battleground state,” Abrams told Vox in a recent email interview.

Where the battle for control of the Senate stands

Georgia represents the narrowest of paths for Democrats to flip the Senate, and it could still be a tricky feat to pull off.

The North Carolina Senate race between Republican Sen. Thom Tillis and his Democratic challenger Cal Cunningham has also not been called and likely won’t be before November 12, which is the final date for mail-in ballots postmarked by Election Day to be received in that state. Votes are also still being counted in the Republican-leaning state of Alaska, which also has a contested Senate race (albeit one that Republicans are favored to win).

Democrats needed a net gain of three seats to flip the Senate to blue if Biden wins, which is looking more likely. The race for the Senate came down to 10 or so competitive races, but Republican incumbents won the vast majority of them.

As expected, Democrats lost Sen. Doug Jones’s seat in Alabama and flipped a Republican seat in Colorado. Democrats hung on to vulnerable incumbent Gary Peters’s seat in Michigan and are expected to flip another seat in Arizona, although Vox’s partner Decision Desk hasn’t yet called that race. Longtime Maine Sen. Susan Collins (R) won her race for reelection, a major blow to Democrats’ hopes of flipping the majority.

Megan Varner/Getty Images

Georgia represents the narrowest of paths for Democrats to flip the Senate; it could be a very tricky feat to pull off.

Democrats can afford to lose North Carolina only if they flip both Georgia seats. But it’s worth repeating just how tough this could be. Throughout the year, Democrats saw North Carolina as more competitive for them than Georgia. Even though Perdue hasn’t avoided a runoff, he has more votes than Ossoff. And runoff elections historically have been worse for Democrats because turnout will likely be lower than a high-turnout presidential election.

“If overtime is required when all of the votes have been counted, we’re ready, and we will win,” Perdue campaign manager Fry said in a statement.

Ossoff’s campaign also released a defiant statement on Thursday.

“The votes are still being counted, but we are confident that Jon Ossoff’s historic performance in Georgia has forced Senator David Perdue to continue defending his indefensible record of unemployment, disease, and corruption,” Ossoff campaign manager Ellen Foster said.

The race in Georgia isn’t over yet.

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khalilhumam · 4 years

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2020: The Year of the Woman Voter

New Post has been published on http://khalilhumam.com/2020-the-year-of-the-woman-voter/

2020: The Year of the Woman Voter

By Michael D. Hais, Morley Winograd The 1992 election was called the “Year of the Woman” because the number of female senators tripled (from two all the way to six) and two dozen women were elected to their first term in the House, the largest number in congressional history. By contrast, this year’s election is being driven by the increasingly overwhelming determination of a significant number of women from every demographic to vote Democratic at every level of the ballot regardless of the gender of the candidate. After analyzing the results of the 2018 midterm elections, we wrote earlier this year about how this trend was impacting this year’s presidential campaign. Now the most recent polls of competitive Senate contests also reveal a gender gap of unprecedented size that threatens to topple the current Republican Senate majority. The Democrats’ best Senate opportunity this year seems to be Arizona, where the incumbent Republican Martha McSally, who was appointed to her seat after losing her campaign for the state’s other Senate seat in 2018, is trailing her male opponent Mark Kelly by a nearly 2:1 margin among women. Kelly is famous in his own right as a former astronaut but became best known to the American public through his tireless campaigning on behalf of gun control after the attempted assassination of his wife, former Congresswoman Gabby Giffords. Even though recent polling shows McSally with a slight edge among male voters in Arizona (48% to 45%), Kelly’s 61% to 33% lead among female voters in the state gives him a commanding 12-point lead overall (53% to 41%). The lead is of sufficient size for The Cook Political Report’s customarily cautious predictions of Senate races to categorize Arizona as the only “leans Democratic” race among those involving a Republican incumbent. The same report named six Senate seats held currently by the GOP as “toss-ups.” Of those, the public polls for the races in both Montana and Colorado do not report their results by gender. However, many analysts believe the two Democratic challengers—current Montana governor, Steve Bullock, and former Colorado governor, John Hickenlooper—have a good chance of beating the incumbent Republican senators this year. If that should happen, and no other incumbent senators lose his or her re-election bid, the Senate in 2021 would be equally divided between the parties, with the vice president elected this year casting the tie-breaking vote on organizing the Senate and its committees along partisan lines. If Joe Biden wins the presidential race, that vote would be cast by a woman, once again affirming the power of the women’s vote in this year’s election. In all likelihood, however, Alabama Democratic Senator Doug Jones will not be able to successfully defend his seat in that Republican stronghold, leaving Democrats with the need to defeat at least one more Republican incumbent senator. However, thanks to female voters in other states, there are a number of other solid opportunities for Democratic pickups this year. The most promising one is in North Carolina, where the incumbent Republican Tom Tillis currently trails his Democratic challenger Cal Cunningham by nine points, a margin greater than in any other Senate race labeled as “toss up” by the Cook Report. This race doesn’t give voters the chance to vote for a woman, but female North Carolina voters prefer Cunningham by a stunning 22-point margin (56% to 34%) in the latest poll. Tillis’s three-point margin among men is hardly large enough to make up the difference. There are potential Democratic victories driven by the women’s vote in other states as well. In Iowa, incumbent Republican Senator Joni Ernst has consistently trailed her Democratic challenger, former real estate developer Theresa Greenfield by a small margin since that state’s June primary. Not surprisingly, Greenfield’s 46% to 43% lead is based upon her strong support among women, who favor her candidacy over Ernst by twenty points (54% to 34%), while men prefer Senator Ernst by sixteen points (53% to 37%). The same dynamic holds true in another contest between two female candidates. In Maine, incumbent Republican Susan Collins trails her Democratic challenger Sarah Gideon by four points (46% to 42%). Although Gideon trails her opponent among men by three points (46% to 43%) a recent poll shows her winning the female vote by 10 points (49% to 39%). If the results in any one of these contests end up in the Democratic column, female voters will have delivered a Senate majority to the Democratic Party in this year of the woman voter. But those contests are not the only chances Democrats have to flip the Senate. The Senate contest in Georgia, involving incumbent Republican David Perdue and Democratic challenger Jon Ossoff, as well as the open Kansas Senate seat, are the most likely “upset” victories that might yet happen in states whose Senate races are rated “lean Republican” by the Cook Report. And two contests rated “likely Republican” featuring GOP veterans Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and Senator Lindsay Graham now feature unexpectedly strong challenges from candidates Amy McGrath in Kentucky and Jamie Harrison in South Carolina, respectively. Those Democratic nominees’ support is almost certainly centered among women voters. As we documented in February of this year, the gender realignment of American politics is the biggest change in party affiliation since the movement by loyal Democratic voters to the GOP in the “solid South,” in final decades of the twentieth century. This gender realignment continues to gain momentum, fueled by the misogynistic behavior of Donald Trump and other leaders of his party who can’t seem to resist attacking powerful, successful Democratic women and, more generally, hindering the full equality of women. It is spreading in almost every state and locality in America as women voters take charge of the country’s future. This year, the realignment’s most significant impact may well be not only electing Joe Biden president, but creating a Democratic majority when the Senate convenes in January of 2021.

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paulbenedictblog · 4 years

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%news%

New Post has been published on %http://paulbenedictsgeneralstore.com%

Thursday's Campaign Round-Up, 2.6.20

This day’s installment of campaign-associated recordsdata items from across the nation.

* As of this morning, with 97% of the Iowa caucus vote released, Pete Buttigieg had a itsy-bitsy lead over Bernie Sanders, 26.2% to 26%. They had been trailed by Elizabeth Warren, Joe Biden, and Amy Klobuchar

* Billionaire Tom Steyer, in his first characterize for public space of business, spent shut to $17 million on promoting in Iowa, nonetheless he appears to be like on the true song to mark a miles-off seventh, with about 0.3% abet.

* Presidential hopefuls are beginning to file their January fundraising totals, and Bernie Sanders’ crew launched it aloof $25 million final month, which is always staggering. The New York Times renowned, “The $25 million haul is extra money than any various candidate raised in any fats quarter all the blueprint thru 2019.”

* With Biden on the true song for a fourth-space mark in Iowa, the archaic vp the day prior to this described the outcomes as a “gut punch.” His campaign operation moreover parted ways with its Iowa field director, Adrienne Bogen, who will no longer switch on to a characteristic in a various speak.

* Every Elizabeth Warren and Michael Bloomberg launched new television adverts this week, prominently featuring the identical individual: Barack Obama. (I’m guessing the campaigns’ internal polling presentations abet for the archaic president at unparalleled highs.)

* With a month to head before North Carolina’s Democratic U.S. Senate predominant, and with occasion leaders enthusiastically supporting speak Sen. Cal Cunningham (D), a mark new conservative political action committee, referred to as Faith and Energy, has made a $1.56 million advert capture in abet of speak Sen. Erica Smith (D), touting her innovative bona fides. The method isn’t precisely delicate: the correct sees Cunningham as a threat to incumbent Sen. Thom Tillis (R), so Tillis’ allies hope to wait on a Democrat they like about would be a long way more uncomplicated to defeat in November.

* And talking of March 3 Senate primaries, with time running out in Texas’ Senate Democratic drag, VoteVets is reportedly investing extra than $3 million in an advert capture in abet of MJ Hegar.

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israel-jewish-news · 7 years

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Gleeful Democrats See Political Wave; GOP Says Not So Fast

New Post has been published on http://hamodia.com/2017/11/08/gleeful-democrats-see-political-wave-gop-says-not-fast/

Gleeful Democrats See Political Wave; GOP Says Not So Fast

New Jersey Gov.-elect Phil Murphy leaps as he jumps onto the stage at his victory party Tuesday, in Asbury Park, N.J. (Tom Gralish/The Philadelphia Inquirer via AP)

Jubilant Democrats across America are declaring their big election victories in Virginia and New Jersey — their first of the young Trump era — mark the beginning of an anti-Trump surge that could re-shape the balance of power in Congress in 2018. Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer says he can “smell a wave coming.”

Not so fast, Republicans said Wednesday. But they acknowledged that setbacks in Virginia, New Jersey and elsewhere on Tuesday created new urgency for the GOP to fulfill its list of campaign promises before voters head back to the polls next year. They, along with President Donald Trump, have failed to demolish “Obamacare” and now are straining to approve a far-reaching tax overhaul despite controlling the White House and both houses of Congress.

“If anything, this just puts more pressure on making sure we follow through,” House Speaker Paul Ryan said at an event hosted by the Washington Examiner. He added, “I think it simply means we’ve got to deliver.”

Whether the president’s party delivers or not, there is clear cause for concern for a Republican Party that would lose its House majority if Democrats gained 24 seats next fall.

Tuesday’s results left little doubt that Trump’s dismal approval ratings can drag down Republican allies, particularly those serving in states he lost last November. And even if his ratings show signs of improvement, history suggests that the first midterm elections for any new president often lead to major gains for the opposing party.

An early string of Republican retirement announcements in competitive districts across Florida, New Jersey and Arizona adds to the GOP’s challenge.

“We’re taking our country back from Donald Trump one election at a time,” Democratic National Committee Chairman Tom Perez said in a Wednesday conference call. “This is not just one night. It is a trend.”

Added Schumer, the New York Democrat: “Our Republican friends better look out.”

Trump declared that the blame for Tuesday’s losses was not his.

“Ed Gillespie worked hard but did not embrace me or what I stand for,” the president tweeted as he toured Asia.

As for Tuesday’s longer-term significance for the Democrats, both parties’ leaders know that much can change in the year before voters decide the 2018 midterm elections. And Republicans enjoy a redistricting advantage that limits the number of truly competitive House races, thanks in large part to GOP routs during Barack Obama’s eight years in office.

Also, Democrats wrestle with their own party strife, pitting the Bernie Sanders’ wing against the more mainstream.

Republican Party leaders also expect their political outlook to improve dramatically once the GOP-led Congress takes action on taxes or health care.

Trump’s team concedes the Republican Party’s suburban challenges but predicts voters will bounce back once Congress begins to enact his agenda. Embedded in that diagnosis, however, is a warning for Republican lawmakers that continued inaction could be disastrous.

Republican Sen. Thom Tillis of North Carolina acknowledged the urgency for his party to produce results.

“We’ve got to be RINOs,” he said, “Republicans in Need of Outcomes.”

#Democrat #Republican

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patriotsnet · 3 years

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How Did The Republicans Take Control Of Congress

New Post has been published on https://www.patriotsnet.com/how-did-the-republicans-take-control-of-congress/

How Did The Republicans Take Control Of Congress

What Is The New Balance Of Power In The House

House Democrats held onto their majority but lost seats to Republican challengers.

More than a dozen incumbent Democrats lost re-election bids, despite earlier projections they could gain up to 15 seats.

Democrats took the chamber after they netted 41 seats in the 2018 midterm elections, their largest single-year pickup since the post-Watergate midterms of 1974. But some of those new Democrats were among the partys losers in 2020.

Incoming Biden Administration And Democratic House Wont Have To Deal With A Republican

Democrats Raphael Warnock and Jon Ossoff wave to supporters during a joint rally on Nov. 15 in Marietta, Ga.

See:With sweep expected in Georgia Senate races, Democrats have high hopes for what Biden can do

It is looking like the Democratic campaign machine was more effective at driving turnout than the Republican one, said Eurasia Group analyst Jon Lieber in a note late Tuesday.

Warnock then made just before 8 a.m. Eastern time on Wednesday.

Its Not All Bad News For Democrats

While it was unquestionably a good night for Republicans, Democrats still held onto most of the seats they won in 2018 and will continue to be the majority party in the House. Thats in part because they retained most of the suburban districts they picked up in 2018.

Of the 233 seats that Democrats held coming into the election, 186 of them were in districts that were predominantly or partly suburban in nature, according to density categorizations by Bloombergs CityLab. Thus far, Democrats have lost seven of those seats, but they captured one GOP-held suburban seat around Atlanta. And thanks to redistricting, theyve also won two formerly Republican seats around Greensboro and Raleigh in North Carolina, which reflect the partys strength in more populous areas.

Because of their relative success in the suburbs, Democrats kept many seats in places President Trump won in 2016. Coming into the election, Democrats held 30 seats in districts Trump carried in 2016, and they wouldve lost their majority if theyd lost more than half of them . But theyve won 18 of them so far and picked up one from the GOP . In fact, more than half of Republicans gains have come in seats representing places that Trump won by a pretty sizable margin in 2016. Well have to wait a bit before data can tell us how congressional districts voted in 2020, but for now it seems many Republican gains were made by picking off the lowest-hanging fruit.

Gop Women Made Big Gains

While the majority of the Republican caucus will still be men come 2021, there will be far more Republican women in Congress than there were this year. So far, it looks like at least , surpassing the record of 25 from the 109th Congress. Thats thanks in part to the record number of non-incumbent Republican women 15 whove won House contests. And its also because of how well Republican women did in tight races. The table below shows the Republican women who ran in Democratic-held House districts that were at least potentially competitive, according to FiveThirtyEights forecast. As of this writing, seven of them have won.

GOP women have flipped several Democratic seats

Republican women running for potentially competitive Democratic-held House seats and the status of their race as of 4:30 p.m Eastern on Nov. 11

District D+22.1

Results are unofficial. Races are counted as projected only if the projection comes from ABC News. Excludes races in which the Republican candidate has either a less than 1 in 100 chance or greater than 99 in 100 chance of winning.

How Did Congress Take Control Of Reconstruction

In early 1866, Congressional Republicans, appalled by mass killing of ex-slaves and adoption of restrictive black codes, seized control of Reconstruction from President Johnson. The 14th Amendment also reduced representation in Congress of any southern state that deprived African Americans of the vote.

What The Midterms Mean For President Obama And 2016

Only one in three voters in exit polls said the country was on the right track, and one in five said the government in Washington could never be trusted to do whats right. Two-thirds said the economic system is unfair.

The Republican swing fit a historical pattern: The last three two-term presidents Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton and George W. Bush all served their last two years with the opposing party controlling both houses of Congress.

And the party controlling the White House has lost seats in the House in the midterm election every time but twice since World War II.

In the Senate, Democrat Mark Pryor of Arkansas was ousted by Rep. Tom Cotton, and Mark Udall of Colorado was bounced by Rep. Cory Gardner. Democratic Sen. Kay Hagan lost her seat to Thom Tillis.

Democrat Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire held off a furious challenge by ex-Sen. Scott Brown.

Republicans Joni Ernst in Iowa, Steve Daines in Montana, Mike Rounds in South Dakota and Shelley Moore Capito in West Virginia all captured seats held by retiring Democrats.

Four Flips For Democrats One For Republicans

Going into the election, the Democrats held 47 seats in the U.S. Senate while the Republicans held 53.

The Democrats have succeeded in flipping four seats: in Colorado, where former Governor John Hickenlooper easily ousted incumbent Cory Gardner, in Arizona, where former astronaut Mark Kelly defeated incumbent Martha McSally, and in Georgia, where Raphael Warnock defeated incumbent Kelly Loeffler and Jon Ossoff defeated incumbent David Perdue.

The Republicans have wrested back one previously Democratic seat in , where one-term incumbent Doug Jones was emphatically denied a second term by Tommy Tuberville, a former college head football coach, most recently at the University of Cincinnati.

Outgoing freshman Sens. Jones and Gardner were both considered vulnerable, as each was elected with less than 50% of the vote in 2018.

Republican Thom Tilliss victory over Cal Cunningham in North Carolinaby less than 2 percentage points according to the North Carolina Secretary of States latest tallyis one of several close Senate races that were not called until after election night. In addition to the seats from Georgia, close races also include the victories of incumbent senators Gary Peters and Susan Collins , which were not called until Nov. 4.

Trump Lost Everything For The Republicans

In four years, Trump has led the Republican Party from unified control of Washington to the wilderness.

About the author: David A. Graham is a staff writer at The Atlantic.

If we nominate Trump, we will get destroyed and we will deserve it, Senator Lindsey Graham .

The South Carolinians prediction didnt age well at first. Come January 2017, the Republican Party was in the catbird seat. With Trumps upset win over the Democratic candidate, Hillary Clinton, it controlled the White House, the Senate, and the House of Representatives. Trump would immediately be able to appoint a Supreme Court justice, too, giving GOP appointees an edge on the high court. Trump seemed to have cleared out the last vestiges of the Democrats New Deal coalition and built a new party that might withstand demographic changes expected to favor liberals. Graham, meanwhile, had a change of heart and became one of Trumps noisiest cheerleaders and closest allies.

Read: Its over

David A. Graham: Trump is the loser

Nonetheless, Trump insisted on making the Georgia Senate runoffs about him too. The effect was disastrous. Democrats, especially Black voters, turned out in astonishing numbers; suburban voters continued to reject Trump; and Republican turnout fell short, perhaps in part because the president had spent weeks telling his supporters that the states elections were rigged.

Read: Georgia sends a preacher to Washington

Republicans Can Win The Next Elections Through Gerrymandering Alone

Even if voting patterns remain the same, Republicans could still win more seats in Congress through redistricting

In Washington, the real insiders know that the true outrages are whats perfectly legal and that its simply a gaffe when someone accidentally blurts out something honest.

And so it barely made a ripple last week when a Texas congressman said aloud whats supposed to be kept to a backroom whisper: Republicans intend to retake the US House of Representatives in 2022 through gerrymandering.

We have redistricting coming up and the Republicans control most of that process in most of the states around the country, Representative Ronny Jackson told a conference of religious conservatives. That alone should get us the majority back.

Hes right. Republicans wont have to win more votes next year to claim the US House.

In fact, everyone could vote the exact same way for Congress next year as they did in 2020 when Democratic candidates nationwide won more than 4.7m votes than Republicans and narrowly held the chamber but under the new maps that will be in place, the Republican party would take control.

If Republicans aggressively maximize every advantage and crash through any of the usual guardrails and they have given every indication that they will theres little Democrats can do. And after a 2019 US supreme court decision declared partisan gerrymandering a non-justiciable political issue, the federal courts will be powerless as well.

Opinion:house Republicans Have Two Critical Advantages In 2022

Democrats hold the balance of power in Washington, D.C., but their margin is wafer-thin: Joe Biden is president, and the party controls both houses of Congress only very narrowly. Theyve already enacted $1.9 trillion of economic stimulus. Theyre with Republicans over the size of a bipartisan infrastructure bill. And theyre keen to pass a new voting rights law, although moderate Sen. Joe Manchin III might scuttle the effort.

Still, their time in the majority might be limited. We live in an era of bitter, closely divided elections. And in 2022, Republicans have two advantages that might soon give them the edge in the House.

The Republicans first advantage: The other party holds the White House. If Biden follows the path of other recent presidents, hell spend political capital, navigate crises and lose supporters in the process.

Barack Obama summarized this dynamic two years into his presidency: In the rush of activity, sometimes we lose track of the ways that we connected with folks that got us here in the first place. This is true of nearly every recent president. Ronald Reagan lost supporters as the 1981-82 recession tore through the economy. Obama alienated swing voters and energized tea party activists as he tried to advance the Affordable Care Act in Congress. And Bill Clinton lost voters when he attempted to pass a health-care reform bill of his own.

The GOPs second advantage: It draws the lines.

Analysis Shows Gop Can Take Control Of Congress By Gerrymandering Just 4 States

Sanders Says He Wont Let Centrists Shrink $3.5T Bill: I Already Negotiated

Republicans might be able to take control of Congress in next years midterm races without needing to win over a single additional voter.

As Democratic senators scramble to piece together a compromised version of the For the People Act, an electoral reform and voting rights bill, a new study finds that the GOP could gerrymander its way to victory in the 2022 midterms.

An analysis of Census data from a Democratic-aligned data firm called TargetSmart, first reported by Mother Jones, found that Republicans could pick up between six to 13 seats in the House of Representatives through redistricting electoral maps in just four southern states alone Georgia, Florida, North Carolina and Texas. If Republicans take five seats in the 2022 midterms, it would result in the GOP winning a majority of seats in the House, as Democrats currently have a five-seat lead in that legislative chamber.

Put another way, the GOP could win the midterm elections if voters behave the same way that they did in congressional elections in 2020, simply if Republican-run state legislatures are able to redraw maps in their own favor.

Babe Didrikson Zaharias Wins Final Lpga Tournament Of Her Career

What was not included? Details on how these bills would be executed and what they would cost.

“It probably did not matter that it was vague on costs, and that was even an advantage,” Teske says. “The goals were big picture, and ones that many voters could understand, without getting intoand bogged down bythe details of budget costs, specific programs that might go away, etc.”

Divided Government In The United States

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In the United States, divided government describes a situation in which one party controls the executive branch while another party controls one or both houses of the legislative branch.

Divided government is seen by different groups as a benefit or as an undesirable product of the model of governance used in the U.S. political system. Under said model, known as the separation of powers, the is divided into different branches. Each branch has separate and independent powers and areas of responsibility so that the powers of one branch are not in conflict with the powers associated with the others. However, the degree to which the president of the United States has control of often determines their political strength – such as the ability to pass sponsored legislation, ratify treaties, and have members and judges approved.

Early in the 19th century, divided government was rare, but since the 1970s it has become increasingly common.

When Obama Had Total Control Of Congress

The Reverend

Lies are easy to get away with if they are repeated often enough and given voice by many different people. Repeat a lie often enough and that lie often becomes conventional wisdom. Repeating a lie doesn’t change the lie into the truth, it changes the people hearing the repeated lie. They begin to accept the lie as truth. One huge example: ‘Iraq has WMD.’

Lies make it impossible for people to communicate with each other……lies make it impossible to, as the Villagers often talk about it, have a real “conversation.”

One particular lie, often stated by right-of-center advocates, is the statement….”if Barack Obama wanted to increase taxes on the rich, stop the wars, pass a budget…blah, blah…..he could have chosen to do so because he had “total control” of the House and Senate for two full years.”

Sometimes the “two full years” is omitted from the statement……but the lie is spread nevertheless, by the “total control of Congress” phrase.

Let’s clear that all up, shall we?

Starting January 2009, at the beginning of the 111th Congress, in the month that Barack Obama was inaugurated president, the House of Representatives was made up of 257 Democrats and 178 Republicans. There is no question that Democrats had total control in the House from 2009-2011.

But legislation does not become law without the Senate.

“Total control”, then, of the Senate requires 60 Democratic or Republican Senators.

*Chronology link

Senate Democrats And The Filibuster

Once again, Democrats fall short of the filibuster-proof 60-vote Senate majority by a whopping 10 votes.

The last time Democrats won a majority in the Senate was in 2008, when they rode Obamas coattails to victory. They had 59 votes in the Senate, far more than Democrats do now.

Obama was able to pull over a few Republican Senate votes in 2009 to pass the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act after the 2008 financial crisis. But on many other legislative priorities, McConnells Republican minority threw up a 60-vote barrier to passing most Democratic legislation.

McConnell admitted two years into the Obama era that he had to do everything he could to ensure the Obama presidency was one term. The former president wrote in his new memoir that the filibuster would prove to be the most chronic political headache of my presidency.

With President Obama, no matter how much outreach he tried to do with Congressional Republicans, there seemed to be absolutely no interest and no acceptance with what he was trying to do, Schiliro said. If congressional Republicans take that approach this time, it will be very difficult to get anything done.

That would break the Senate, Manchin told the . If you basically do away with the filibuster altogether for legislation, you wont have the Senate. Youre a glorified House. And I will not do that.

Democrats Lost A Long Hold On Congress

Democrats, meanwhile, characterized the plan as calling for radical changes and solutions that would make America worse off.

“They highlighted some of the more extreme elements and tried to show the damage it could cause to policies and institutions that had been in place for decades,” Teske says. “Some mocked it as the ‘Contract on America’not ‘with’as with a ‘hit job’ on the American people.”

And while Republicans won big at the ballot box that year, Teske says it was going to be a tough year for Democrats anyway, considering Clinton’s unpopularity, a weak economy and the history of midterms favoring the party not held by the president.

“But, the contract did show a coherent opposition plan that probably helped re-capture many of these seats,” he notes. “At the same time, pendulums do swing in American politics and after 60 years of pretty dominant Democratic control of both houses of Congress, there was probably going to be a change. But, it is probably fair to say that Gingrichs contract was in the right place, at the right time, for the Republican party.”

Which Congressional Action Was An Attempt By Radical Republicans To Advance Their Plan For Reconstruction

1867 Military Reconstruction ActThe 1867 Military Reconstruction Act, which encompassed the vision of Radical Republicans, set a new direction for Reconstruction in the South. Republicans saw this law, and three supplementary laws passed by Congress that year, called the Reconstruction Acts, as a way to deal with the disorder in the South.

READ: What is a lemming look like?

Current Leadership Of Key Offices

Eleven years of Democratic trifectas Seventeen years of Republican trifectasScroll left and right on the table below to view more years.

Year

Who Runs the States Report Background Main Page Part One: State Partisanship Partisanship Results Infographic Part Two: State Quality of Life Index Part Three: Overlaying Results Part 1 Executive Summary State Partisanship Analysis Partisan Control of Governorships Partisan Control of State Legislatures Partisan Control of State Senates Partisan Control of State Houses State Government Trifectas Overall Partisan Control: Bright, Medium and Soft States Changes of Partisan Domination over 22 years Year-to-Year Changes in State Partisan Control Trifectas and Presidential Election Patterns Appendix A Appendix B Part 2 Executive Summary State Quality of Life Index About the Index Overall Rankings Dramatic Changes from 1st Half to 2nd Half Individual Indicators Part 3 Comparing Partisanship and the State Quality of Life Index Rankings Description of the data Trends and correlations Key Values for Fifty-State Regressions State Reports

Republicans Set To Rebound Big In 2022 Midterms Unless

We are just 600 short days away from the 2022 midterm elections, which means it is the perfect time to handicap the Republicans chances to win back the House, Senate and prepare a serious challenge to President Biden

Patrick Joseph ToomeyBlack women look to build upon gains in coming electionsWatch live: GOP senators present new infrastructure proposalSasse rebuked by Nebraska Republican Party over impeachment vote already have Democrats scrambling to flip those seats in much easier electoral terrain.

As I noted in The Hill last month, Republicans are on the hook to defend 20 of their seats in 2022, while Team Blue has just 14 seats to hold, all in states won by Joe Biden in 2020. Since March is a perfect month for sports analogies, a good defense provides for a strong offense when the status quo is Democrats retaining control of the upper chamber. While there is clearly a power in incumbency, FiveThirtyEight suggests that senate vacancies are actually more of a mixed bag. In election cycles since 1974, the party with the most Senate retirements has actually gained seats just as often as it has lost them. For every year like 2008, when more Republicans than Democrats retired and Republicans lost seats accordingly, theres a year like 2012, when a whopping seven Democrats retired yet the party picked up two Senate seats.

How these various Rs play out in the next few months will determine if the Rs are successful in 2022.

How Republicans Could Rig The Battle For Control Of Congress

The Atlantic

Democrats face a daunting future of severe Republican gerrymandering that could flip control of the House in 2022 and suppress diverse younger generations political influence for years to come, according to a new study released today. Those findings underscore the stakes in Democrats efforts to pass national legislation combatting such electoral manipulation.

The four big states to watch are Texas, Florida, Georgia, and North Carolina, where the GOP enjoys complete control over the redistricting process, says Michael Li, a senior counsel at the Brennan Center for Justice and the author of the new report on how congressional redistricting could unfold following the 2020 census. Those four states, which are seat-rich and where Republicans control the process, could decide who controls the next Congress, he told me.

Over the longer term, Republican states could impose gerrymanders that prevent the nations growing nonwhite population from building political power commensurate with its numberseven though voters of color accounted for about four in five newly eligible voters in the past decade, the study found.

When Senate Democrats like Joe Manchin, Kyrsten Sinema, and Feinstein oppose getting rid of the filibuster, Pfeiffer added, they are deciding to make it more likely that their time in the majority is ever so brief.

The Midterms Introduced Extreme Divisive Politics

As for the contract’s lasting impact? Most of its ideas and proposals did not pass Congress, or were vetoed by Clinton, and, according to Teske, the ones that did pass were not radical departures and instead relatively minor in scope. But it did put Republicans back in power in Congress, which they’ve largely held onto in the years since.

“The Gingrich approach of extreme right ideas, combined with a scorched-earth personal level of politics in attacking opponentslater seen in Clintons investigations and impeachmenthas also had a major impact on American politics” he says. “It helped bring a much more ‘win at all costs’ mentality, and a divisiveness that persists today.”

Opinion:the House Looks Like A Gop Lock In 2022 But The Senate Will Be Much Harder

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patriotsnet · 3 years

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How Many Seats Do The Republicans Have In The Senate

New Post has been published on https://www.patriotsnet.com/how-many-seats-do-the-republicans-have-in-the-senate/

How Many Seats Do The Republicans Have In The Senate