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Can Designer brands like Birkin continue to profit despite US economic uncertainty?

A big concern for luxury brands such as Hermes is economic turmoil. The premium-priced products often fall out of favor to consumers as their budgets get tighter and money is harder to come by. This concern is being tested as economies worldwide are competing against various factors causing future economic uncertainty, and future economic uncertainty hurts current economies. As seen in the chart below, worldwide uncertainty peaks during major events such as an election, Brexit, and the coronavirus.

In more recent events, economic uncertainty is being caused by the ongoing war in Ukraine and the cost of living crisis. Recent data is showing that these events continue, and uncertainty is starting to grow causing negative effects in our economies.

The trending levels of uncertainty will be of concern for luxury brands, however, Hermes is not currently seeing the effects of it. Hermes was able to beat market expectations of 15% growth by increasing sales by 23% in the first quarter. This put Hermes' sales in the first three months of the year at $3.74 billion dollars. The fashion rival of Hermes, LVMH, only achieved an 8% growth in the US during the same period citing a "softer demand for fashion, leather goods, and jewelry."

Hermes contributes its sales success to an increase in in-store traffic within the US with April trends still being favorable. Bernstein analyst Lica Solca believes that Hermes has been able to beat market trends by "leveraging its high brand desirability and waiting lists for iconic products." Hermes was also less affected by lockdowns in China that hindered many competitors' sales.

So far, Hermes has been able to avoid the economic effects of uncertainty rising across the world, but its challenge is only getting started as it will look to continue its success. Hermes competitors will be looking to mimic their success as the whole luxury apparel industry looks to avoid the effects of economic uncertainty.

Other sources:

https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2023/01/26/global-economic-uncertainty-remains-elevated-weighing-on-growth

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