#margot robbie has been producing for years and this is her first nom i would think people would be excited about that

[whotaughtyougrammar]

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[parm4carm]

i think what irks me the most about the discourse surrounding margot and greta not getting nominated is that people are grossly downplaying either of their accomplishments? the barbie defenders have looped around to being regressive because why are you acting as if barbie is THE most important film that either of them have ever done or WILL ever do?

not even counting the unquantifiable cultural impact, greta and margot are both highly decorated entertainers. margot has been nominated for two academy awards, both acting. both of greta gerwig's films have been nominated for academy awards, and have won multiple awards. it's almost embarrassing to watch people act as if these women in their thirties haven't been in the entertainment business for years?

now what really gets me is how much these people are downplaying other accomplishments. two black women and one honduran woman in the supporting actress category! three black men nominated for acting awards! an indigenous woman being nominated for the first time in history! many lifelong actors are being recognized for their decades of work – paul giamatti, cillian murphy, jeffrey wright, sterling k. brown (to name a few). justine triet's historic best director nomination. godzilla minus one being the first japanese film to be nominated for best visual effects. killers of the flower moon, past lives, and american fiction receiving best picture noms – films with nonwhite leads.

and on top of that? margot robbie IS being recognized for her work on barbie in a historic way – she's receiving her first EVER oscar nomination as a PRODUCER of a film in the BEST PICTURE category – meaning, regardless if barbie wins or not, she is now an academy award-nominated producer who owns her own production company (luckychap) meaning she will absolutely use this momentum to put more women's stories to screen.

i'm just confused as to why we're acting like barbie didn't receive 8 nominations? you're demeaning women of color to prop up your favorites (who would hate you for that, by the way) when margot robbie and greta getwig are NOT the examples you should be using to do so, because both of them were successful before barbie, and will be even MORE successful after barbie.

you should focus your energy on supporting frontrunners like lily gladstone, da'vine joy randolph, danielle brooks, etc.

i'm also very confused as to why we're acting as if the academy voter's nominations have EVER reflected the public's opinion, especially considering they're roughly 75% middle aged white men. do you really think those men resonated with american ferrera's monologue? be honest with yourselves.

[kevinpolowy]

Our fearless picks for the 2018 Oscar nominations

Sam Rockwell and Frances McDormand in ‘Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri’ (Fox Searchlight)

The nominations for the 90th Academy Awards will be announced, per usual, at an ungodly early hour Tuesday (seriously, why?), and there’s plenty of suspense heading into the proceedings. Will The Shape of Water and Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri continue to surge? Which actresses will crack the ballot in the most competitive races we’ve seen in eons? Will James Franco still make the cut despite allegations of sexual misconduct? Will Christopher Plummer be rewarded for taking over the role of the disgraced Kevin Spacey? And does the delightful and hilarious Tiffany Haddish stand a chance for the decidedly un-Oscar-y comedy Girls Trip? Read on for our fearless picks in the top 11 categories.

BEST PICTURE

The first piece of the Best Picture puzzle is figuring out how many nominees there will be. In the six years since the Academy rejiggered its rules to allow between five and 10 nominees, the final tally has ranged between eight (twice) and nine (four times).

The sure things are Fox Searchlight’s dynamic duo of The Shape of Water and Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri. Get Out, Lady Bird, and Call Me by Your Name have passionate support behind them (their diversity doesn’t hurt, either). Dunkirk and The Post haven’t been the awards behemoths they were predicted to be, but they should be safely in the mix, too.

That leaves seven films (The Big Sick; Darkest Hour; The Florida Project; I, Tonya; Molly’s Game; Mudbound; and Wonder Woman) jockeying for the final one to three slots. I see Florida getting some shine for the eighth spot. Although Molly, Tonya, and Wonder Woman all earned Producers Guild Award noms, and Tonya would probably be the favorite, I see the Academy embracing a streaming service and selecting The Big Sick (Amazon) and/or Mudbound (Netflix). For the fun of it let’s say there will be 10.

Predictions: The Big Sick Call Me by Your Name Dunkirk The Florida Project Get Out Lady Bird Mudbound The Post The Shape of Water Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Other contenders: Darkest Hour I, Tonya Molly’s Game Wonder Woman

Longshots: Blade Runner 2049 Coco The Disaster Artist Logan Phantom Thread War for the Planet of the Apes

BEST DIRECTOR

If there’s a big surprise brewing here, it could be The Florida Project helmer Sean Baker pulling “a Lenny Abramson” (no one saw the Room director making the cut in 2016). There’s a lot of goodwill out there for Baker between Florida and his 2015 indie darling Tangerine. I also could see one big snub in the form Steven Spielberg, the eight-time directing nominee who fast-tracked The Post into production as a clear rebuttal to President Trump’s war against the media. My best guess is that the Academy ultimately aligns with the Director’s Guild Award nominations.

Predictions: Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk Jordan Peele, Get Out

Other contenders: Sean Baker, The Florida Project Luca Guadagino, Call Me by Your Name Dee Rees, Mudbound Steven Spielberg, The Post Joe Wright, Darkest Hour

Longshots: Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread Sofia Coppola, The Beguiled Patty Jenkins, Wonder Woman Ridley Scott, All the Money in the World Denis Villeneuve, Blade Runner 2049

BEST ACTRESS

It was one of the strongest years for lead female performances in ages, a refreshing change of pace that potentially signals a shift in the industry. There seem to be four locks here: Sally Hawkins, who would earn her second nom for The Shape of Water; Frances McDormand, who would earn her fifth nom for Three Billboards (she won once); Saoirse Ronan, who would earn her third nom for Lady Bird; and Meryl Streep, who would her 21st (!!!) Oscar nom for The Post (she has won three).

The nail-biting comes with slot No. 5, where it looks like a head-to-head match between Margot Robbie’s twist on Tonya Harding  in I, Tonya and Jessica Chastain’s commanding “poker princess” in Molly’s Game. Emma Stone coulda also been a contenda here, had more people actually seen her winning portrayal of Billie Jean King in Battle of the Sexes.

Predictions: Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri Margot Robbie, I, Tonya Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird Meryl Streep, The Post

Other contenders: Jessica Chastain, Molly’s Game Judi Dench, Victoria and Abdul Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes Michelle Williams, All the Money in the World

Longshots: Annette Bening, Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool Gal Gadot, Wonder Woman Salma Hayek, Beatriz at Dinner Diane Kruger, In the Fade Brooklynn Prince, The Florida Project Daniela Vega, A Fantastic Woman

BEST ACTOR

Reel talk: This might be the easiest major award pool to predict. Gary Oldman won the Oscar back in September the minute critics first feasted their eyes on his scene-chewing, liquor-swigging Winston Churchill in Darkest Hour. Call Me by Your Name breakout Timothée Chalamet is a chic pick to pull an upset, and Get Out breakout Daniel Kaluuya’s awards stock has been rising by the week. You also have two of the best in the biz, Tom Hanks and Daniel Day-Lewis, at the top of their games in The Post and Phantom Thread, respectively. The wild card here is James Franco (The Disaster Artist), who faced sexual misconduct allegations the very week Oscar voting closed. While that may have affected late ballots, there’s a good chance many votes had already been cast.

Predictions: Timothée Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread Tom Hanks, The Post Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour

Other contenders: James Franco, The Disaster Artist Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq.

Longshots: Chadwick Boseman, Marshall Steve Carell, Battle of the Sexes Jake Gyllenhaal, Stronger

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Given how things have shaken out in the awards season so far, we already know the race will come down to either Allison Janney (I, Tonya) or Laurie Metcalf (Lady Bird), so they’re in. Despite their film’s shaky chances of competing for Best Picture, Mudbound‘s Mary J. Blige and The Big Sick‘s Holly Hunter can pick out their dresses, too. That leaves The Shape of Water‘s Octavia Spencer and Downsizing‘s Hong Chau vying for the final position, though given how divisive the latter’s film has proven, odds favor the former. But don’t count out people’s (and some critics’ circles) champion Tiffany Haddish (Girl Trip), who could follow in the steps of Melissa McCarthy (Bridesmaids) and score a rare nomination for acting in a broad comedy.

Predictions: Mary J. Blige, Mudbound Holly Hunter, The Big Sick Allison Janney, I, Tonya Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water

Other contenders: Hong Chau, Downsizing Tiffany Haddish, Girls Trip Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread

Longshots: Kirsten Dunst, The Beguiled Melissa Leo, Novitiate Michelle Pfeiffer, mother!

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Given how things have shaken out in the awards season so far, we already know the race will come down to either Willem Dafoe (The Florida Project) or Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri), so they’re in. Rockwell could very well cancel out his esteemed costar Woody Harrelson. It’s also unlikely we see more than one supporting actor from Call Me by Your Name, and as powerful as Michael Stuhlbarg’s speech is in the closing minutes of the film, I think it’s Armie Hammer time. If Harrelson and Stuhlbarg do get overshadowed by the cast mates, then I see the final nod going to Christopher Plummer, whose nomination for his 11th hour reshoots of All the Money in the World would be both a tribute to the beloved 88-year-old pro and a slap to Kevin Spacey, whom Plummer replaced.

Predictions: Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project Armie Hammer, Call Me by Your Name Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Other contenders: Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri Jason Mitchell, Mudbound Michael Stuhlbarg, Call Me by Your Name

Longshots: Ben Mendelsohn, Darkest Hour Ray Romano, The Big Sick

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

It was a great year for writer-directors, and there could very well be four people up for both Best Director and Best Original Screenplay (del Toro for Shape of Water, Gerwig for Lady Bird, McDonagh for Three Billboards, and Peele for Get Out). It would be highly surprising (and highly disappointing) not to see the fifth spot go to the husband-and-wife writing team Kumail Nanjiani and Emily V. Gordon for their deeply personal (and deeply hilarious) script for The Big Sick.

Predictions: Guillermo del Toro and Vanessa Taylor, The Shape of Water Emily V. Gordon and Kumail Nanjiani, The Big Sick Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri Jordan Peele, Get Out

Other contenders: Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread Steven Rogers, I, Tonya Liz Hannah and Josh Singer, The Post

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

It was also a great year for female writers. If my predictions hold true, five of the 10 films nominated for their screenplays would have been written or co-written by women (that includes directors Sofia Coppola and Dee Rees getting in here for The Beguiled and Mudbound, respectively). That’s the most since… ever? (We’ll report back.)

Predictions: Sofia Coppola, The Beguiled James Ivory, Call Me by Your Name Scott Neustadter and Michael H. Weber, The Disaster Artist Aaron Sorkin, Molly’s Game Dee Rees and Virgil Williams, Mudbound

Other contenders: David Scarpa and John Pearson, All the Money in the World Scott Frank, James Mangold, and Michael Green, Logan Stephen Chbosky, Steve Conrad, and Jack Thorne, Wonder

BEST ANIMATED FILM

It’ll be an honor just to get nominated in this category for anything not called Coco. But in a down year for major studio animation, expect a heavy dosage of lesser-known, arthouse, and foreign titles like The Breadwinner, Loving Vincent, and Mary and the Witch’s Flower.

Predictions: The Breadwinner Coco The Lego Batman Movie Loving Vincent Mary and the Witch’s Flower

Other contenders: The Big Bad Fox and Other Tales Despicable Me 3 Ferdinand In This Corner of the World

Longshots: The Boss Baby (hey, it got a Golden Globe nomination) Captain Underpants

BEST DOCUMENTARY

Expect two highly respected women from two very different walks of life to square off here: Jane Goodall, the primatologist and subject of Nat Geo’s acclaimed doc Jane, and Agnès Varda, the beloved French filmmaker whose latest, Faces Places, could earn her a second Oscar this year (she earned a lifetime achievement statue from the Academy at November’s Governors Awards).

Predictions: Chasing Corral City of Ghosts Faces Places Jane Last Men in Aleppo

Other contenders: Human Flow Icarus An Inconvenient Sequel: Truth to Power Strong Island

BEST FOREIGN-LANGUAGE FILM

Angelina Jolie’s Cambodian genocide drama First They Killed My Father didn’t make the short list, but there’s still plenty of star power here, with likely nominees including Sweden’s The Square (featuring Elizabeth Moss in an English-speaking supporting role), Germany’s In the Fade (with a killer performance from Diane Kruger), and Chile’s A Fantastic Woman (lead by a breakout performance from transgender actress Daniela Vega).

Predictions: A Fantastic Woman Foxtrot In the Fade Loveless The Square

Other contenders: The Insult The Wound

Read more on Yahoo Entertainment:

How ‘Three Billboards,’ ‘Shape of Water’ have suddenly become the Oscar favorites

Aaron Sorkin on how ‘Molly’s Game’ presents ‘a real-life movie heroine’ in the #TimesUp era

The 5 biggest movie upsets at the 2018 Golden Globes