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freebetalerts-blog · 7 years ago

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Horse racing: Back O'Brien's after a break

(New post on FreeBetAlerts.com) - https://freebetalerts.com/2018/09/09/horse-racing-back-obriens-after-a-break/ #Freebets, #HorseRacing, #Tips

Horse racing: Back O'Brien's after a break Please share.

We identify three trainers who are in good form at present and picks out some interesting horses that may run for them in the next few days.

Flat Trainer: Aidan O’Brien (Click name to see full list of entries) It’s not a profitable venture to back Aidan O’Brien’s horses blind over the course of the season, the master of Ballydoyle having been Irish Champion Flat trainer in terms of prize money won in every season since 1999. O’Brien has been open about the virus that has affected the yard’s runners this season, the effects of which can be seen in the graph below.

However, the red line is trending upwards now, and O’Brien has had notable success of late, including with a number of horses at big prices (Kenya, won the Irish Cesarewitch at 20/1, while Isle of Innisfree broke his maiden tag at 12/1). Both of those horses were returning from breaks of at least seven weeks, so, with that in mind, it looks worth concentrating on his entries that are returning from spells on the sidelines. Listowel entry Spanish Point won at Leopardstown in June and ran as well as he was entitled to when third at Navan the following month. He should appreciate the slightly shorter trip here and could be the best value of the O’Brien team. Mount Tabora underperformed in first-time blinkers when last seen in July, but could be seen to better effect away from Galway (seemed unsuited by the track), while Snowflakes was eighth in the Albany at Royal Ascot when last seen and this sister to Winter could be hard to beat when stepped up in trip in the next few days. Jumps Trainer: Jamie Snowden Jamie Snowden’s horses have been in good form of late, with wins for Lord Topper and Carntop backed up by placed efforts for Fact Of The Matter and Filemon. Lord Topper was given a positive ride by claiming rider Page Fuller, who has recorded similar strike-rates for the past few seasons, as the table below shows.

She’s developed a good understanding with the horse, riding him to two Newton Abbot wins in succession, and it’s worth noting her riding style radar below which shows that she tends to give horses very positive rides.

Lord Topper is entered at the same track on Monday and could take some stopping despite a 7 lb higher mark. Carntop, meanwhile, chases his own hat-trick of wins at Uttoxeter on Wednesday and the formerly useful Flat performer remains open to further improvement. Next Level paid the price for jumping errors over fences at Stratford last time and may be of most interest back over hurdles at Worcester on Tuesday rather than his Monday chase entry at Newton Abbot. Under The Radar: Karl Burke The likes of Havana Mariposa, Double Reflection, Guvenor’s Choice and Mijack have all shown career-best form for Karl Burke over the past fortnight, with Guvenor’s Choice the only horse to do so in defeat. He’s of interest when next seen over Wolverhampton’s extended mile, however Burke has enjoyed a lot of his success with sprinters, as the graph below shows.

With as many in the yard as they’ve ever had, Burke has a lot of horses to consider over the coming days, however Mister Dependable could yet live up to his name in the opener at Catterick on Tuesday. He’s only hit the frame twice in five starts, and was below-form at Carlisle last time, but he should be much more at home now dropped in trip at a much sharper track. Havana Mariposa runs over seven furlongs later on the card and should be much more competitive from this 4 lb lower mark after flopping under a penalty last time. French Sonnet tackles the same trip in a Leicester seller, though she may not be seen to best effect until dropped back even further in trip (dam very precocious).

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