#my highest level card is obviously craig

[acreekinthenight]

After losing all my progress when I got a new phone I've redownload phone destroyer...

[thegloober]

Mailbag: Wild Card Game, Chapman, Realmuto, Goldschmidt

Yankeemetrics: Smackdown at Tropicana Field (Sept. 24-27)

We’ve got 12 questions in this week’s mailbag, the final mailbag of the 2018 regular season. As always, RABmailbag (at) gmail (dot) com is where you can send your mailbag questions each week.

Tanaka. (Mike Stobe/Getty)

Robert asks: Starting pitcher for the Wild Card? How about the one least likely to implode in early on. Any stats on who most often throws a scoreless 1st and 2nd inning? Probably no Didi to bail us out again this year.

The other day Aaron Boone mentioned the Yankees might only let their starting pitcher go through the lineup one time in the Wild Card Game, even if he’s effective. I’m not sure that’ll happen — if the starter goes nine up, nine down with five strikeouts, are they really taking him out? — but the Yankees have made it pretty clear they’ll be ready to go to their bullpen at the first sign of trouble. Anyway, here are the numbers (ERA/FIP/opponent’s OPS+):

Happ Severino Tanaka 1st inning 3.90/4.49/76 4.22/3.31/104 4.00/3.75/103 2nd inning 2.40/3.22/76 2.25/2.37/50 2.67/3.12/75 1st & 2nd innings 3.15/3.86/76 3.23/2.85/78 3.33/3.44/90 1st time thru lineup 3.03/4.29/92 2.60/2.74/79 2.70/3.12/87

Reminder that the first inning is the highest scoring inning, historically. That’s the only inning in which each team’s best hitters are guaranteed to hit. If the Yankees are only looking for someone to get through the lineup one time, it has to be Severino. And not just because of the numbers in the table. Tell him to air it out for nine batters and you’re getting a 100 mph heater and a razor blade slider. Severino can dominate anyone. The Yankees have to piece together 27 outs in the Wild Card Game. My guess is the bullpen get the majority of those 27 outs.

Joe asks: This might be a little extreme, any chance if Yanks make it to the ALDS, they leave Chapman off the roster and ready him for the ALCS? Don’t remember a time he looked good against the Red Sox. Maybe if they keep him on the roster, he doesn’t pitch at Fenway even in a save opportunity?

There’s no chance the Yankees will leave Aroldis Chapman off the postseason roster, in any round against any opponent. Chapman has really struggled against the Red Sox — he’s allowed 16 runs in 16 innings against the BoSox while with the Yankees — but he has the ability to dominate any lineup. You roll with your best players in the postseason and trust them to do what’s needed to win. What’s the alternative here? Tommy Kahnle? Sonny Gray? Yeah, no. Chapman’s recent history against the Red Sox is ugly and I’m not sure I’ll feel comfortable with him on the mound in a close game against the Red Sox, but he is far too good and far too talented to avoid in the postseason because of 16 bad innings spread across two and a half years.

Joe asks: Do you think that the presence of Yankees scouts with the Marlins could make an offseason swap of Sanchez for Realmuto a possibility? How would a trade look?

The Marlins would have to kick in more. I’ve gotten a lot of “why not trade Gary Sanchez for J.T. Realmuto?” questions this year and most suggest a package headlined by Sanchez for Realmuto. That is completely backwards to me. The Marlins would have to give up a package headlined by Realmuto for Sanchez. Consider …

Sanchez is two years younger.

Sanchez is under team control through 2022. Realmuto is under control through 2020.

Realmuto’s breakout season at age 27 in 2018 (.278/.342/.487/128 wRC+/+4.8 WAR) is no better than Gary’s age 24 season in 2017 (.278/.345/.531/129 wRC+/+4.4 WAR).

Aside from his caught stealing rate, the defensive numbers on Realmuto aren’t good at all.

I have no interest in selling low on Sanchez to buy high on Realmuto. Realmuto’s really good and I don’t have any reason to believe he won’t continue to be really good the next few years. But Sanchez is younger, is under control longer, and every bit as talented (if not more). If Gary were on some other team right now, I’d get a zillion questions asking whether the Yankees should buy low, and I’d say absolutely yes. Keep Sanchez. Don’t trade him for the flavor of the week. You’re never going to win anything if you cut bait the first time young players struggle.

Matt asks: Is it worth it to dismiss Josh Bard after this season and hire a former manager to be a bench coach? With bullpen management being a clear weakness for Boone perhaps an experienced manager can offer some help.

From what I understand, Josh Bard is very highly regarded within baseball. He’s considered a rising star in the coaching and managerial ranks. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if we hear him connected to some managerial openings this winter and see him possibly go for interviews. Some of Aaron Boone’s bullpen management is dumb. The A.J. Cole thing is ridiculous. But, generally speaking, Boone uses guys in the right spots, in my opinion. David Robertson is the fireman. Dellin Betances faces the other team’s best hitters. That sorta stuff. It’s up to Boone to improve his improve his bullpen management. It’s not on the bench coach. Boone has to learn and gain experience. Besides, I suspect the front office has a lot of input — let’s call it “providing guidance” — into bullpen moves. I’m not sure a veteran bench coach would change much, if at all.

Goldy. (Ralph Freso/Getty)

Craig asks: Paul Goldschmidt. Some speculation that the D-backs could deal him over the winter – do you think the Yankees would/should make a play for him? What would it take?

Next season is the last season on Goldschmidt’s contract (it’s a no-brainer $14.5M club option year) and he’ll hit free agency at 32, which makes things dicey. He’s obviously great — Goldschmidt is hitting .291/.390/.538 (146 wRC+) with 33 homers and Gold Glove caliber defense this year — but paying big dollars for a first baseman’s age 32+ seasons isn’t something teams are eager to do these days. That has led to speculation about a trade his offseason.

If the Diamondbacks are open to trading Goldschmidt, the Yankees absolutely should make a play for him. He’s a dominant player who is a big upgrade at first base. I like Luke Voit, he’s been awesome, but I wouldn’t hesitate for a second to replace him with Goldschmidt. The Yankees have a lot of players in the prime of their careers or entering the prime of their careers. Anything they can do to increase their odds of winning the World Series in the short-term is worthwhile. The time to go all-in is right now. If not now, then when?

In a perfect world the Yankees would build a trade package around Greg Bird and Chance Adams, but I’m not sure that’s realistic. I’d want Justus Sheffield as part of a package if I were the D’Backs. I don’t think that’s unreasonable for a player as good as Goldschmidt, even one year of him. I’m not convinced Arizona will trade him. I think they’re more likely to keep him and try to win in 2019. If they’re open to trading Goldschmidt, the Yankees have to at least check in. Elite players are always worth acquiring.

Luke asks: All this talk about 10+ HRs out of the ’18 Yanks, and the next closest is Tyler Austin at 8 – womp. What about how many HRs have we gotten out of each position – has to be 20 per position, right? Any records close to being broken there?

I don’t know how to look this up historically, so I don’t know whether the Yankees are approaching (or setting) any records here, but it is pretty insane how much the home run production is spread out. The Yankees have not only gotten 20+ homers from every position except one (left field), they’ve gotten 20+ homers from every lineup spot except one (ninth). The numbers:

Homers by Position Catcher: 29 First Base: 32 Second Base: 24 Shortstop: 33 Third Base: 26 Left Field: 19 Center Field: 29 Right Field: 37 Designated Hitter: 30

Homers by Lineup Spot 1. 27 2. 38 3. 26 4. 43 5. 33 6. 26 7. 23 8. 25 9. 19

That is pretty crazy. Can Gleyber Torres (or whoever ends up playing second base) hit three home runs this weekend? Can the ninth place hitter sock one? I can’t imagine many teams throughout baseball history have received 20+ homers from each position and/or each lineup spot.

Zeke asks: What’s your opinion on bad contract swap for Ellsbury and Samardzija? Maybe Yankees can throw in one low level prospect to make it work?

I think we’re heading into the third straight offseason with “Ellsbury for Samardzija?” questions. Jacoby Ellsbury was hurt all season and a non-factor. Didn’t play a single game. Jeff Samardzija pitched to a 6.25 ERA (5.44 FIP) in 44.2 innings around injuries. They both have two years left on their contracts and the money is similar enough ($43M vs. $36M) that it shouldn’t be a significant obstacle in a trade.

It boils down to this: What reclamation project do you want, the 34-year-old starter or the 35-year-old outfielder? I honestly don’t know. I feel like Ellsbury is more likely to help you as a fourth outfielder than Samardzija is as a starter or even as a reliever at this point. Plus Ellsbury just had hip surgery. If his rehab carries over into early next season, the Yankees collect insurance money to offset his salary, and the savings might be worth more than whatever Ellsbury or Samardzija gives you on the field. I dunno. Two bad options here.

Frank asks: Do you have any interest in a Robbie Cano reunion for the first base job? If so, how much of Cano’s contract would Seattle have to eat to make the deal plausible?

Nah. Robinson Cano is forever cool with me, but he’s going to turn 36 years old in October, and there’s still five (!) years and $120M remaining on his contract. It’s all downside too. Cano’s best years are behind him and you’d be acquiring his heavy decline years, the years the Yankees wanted to avoid when they reportedly capped their offer at seven years. The Mariners would have to turn him into what, a $5M a year player for the Yankees to even consider it? Even then, do you want to pay $5M a year for his age 36-40 seasons? Nah. stay away from the declining dudes on the wrong side of 35, especially when there are multiple years remaining on their contract.

Miller. (Jason Miller/Getty)

Andrew asks: Looking at your recent bullpen post. Why not bring back Andrew Miller as a FA? Let Britton walk and sign Miller who should be a cheaper? We already know he can handle NY and would give us insurance if/when Betances leaves after next year.

I suspect we’re going to hear a lot about a potential Miller reunion this winter. It’s worth a longer discussion outside a mailbag setting (and after the postseason). Miller turns 34 next May and he went into last night’s game with a 3.38 ERA (3.10 FIP) and a 31.2% strikeout rate in 32 innings this season. That is obviously very good. It also qualifies as his worst season as a full-time reliever. He’s also missed time with a shoulder impingement and ongoing knee problems that date back to last season. The Indians even sent him to see the Cleveland Cavaliers doctors to figure out the knee issue. Miller is awesome. I don’t know anyone who didn’t love him when he was with the Yankees. The question is who do you want the next three years, Miller during his age 34-36 seasons or Zach Britton during his age 31-33 seasons? As good as Miller is, I don’t think it would be unreasonable to consider Britton the better investment going forward.

John asks: Assuming a RH starter in the Wild Card game, shouldn’t Walker start over Voit?

Nah. Voit’s been hitting righties pretty hard these last few weeks. He went into yesterday’s game hitting .291/.384/.570 (158 wRC+) against right-handers this season, and that was before his 3-for-3 with a double and a homer game. Neil Walker’s had some big moments with the Yankees — what are the odds he comes up with a random huge hit in the postseason? pretty darn good, I’d say — but he is hitting .234/.326/.390 (94 wRC+) against righties. Voit will swing-and-miss a bunch against big velocity from righties. That’s not unusual though. Everyone does that. Otherwise he’s hit righties very hard and I’d go with him over Walker against a righty in the postseason. (The fact Greg Bird is not even part of this conversation tells you how terrible he’s been.)

Keane asks: Do you think the Yankees might experiment with more bullpen games or an opener next year?

I could see it, yeah. I don’t think the Yankees or any non-Rays teams would do it as often as the Rays have this year, but it’s worth considering. Inevitably there will be injuries and the Yankees will have to turn to young kids to fill out the rotation next year. That’s just part of baseball. And when you have someone like that, like Domingo German or the Chance Adams spot start this season, it’s definitely worth considering using an opener more often. It’s not something I would look to do regularly. There will be some times when it makes sense though, and I hope the Yankees embrace it.

George asks: I had one question after reading your article about re-signing Andrew McCutchen. You mention a three-man (Judge, Stanton, McCutchen) rotation in the corner outfield and DH spots, but who is the backup for center field? If Hicks gets hurt, or needs a day off?

That’s a good question and that’s something the Yankees would have to figure out. Is Ellsbury on the bench? If yes, he’d be the obvious backup center fielder. Judge played center field in a game earlier this year, so the Yankees are comfortable running him out there. Comfortable enough to let him do it fairly often? Or on an everyday basis should Aaron Hicks get hurt? I dunno. The same question applies to Clint Frazier. I wouldn’t want to play McCutchen in center field in anything more than an emergency. He’s been pretty terrible out there the last few seasons. This is definitely something the Yankees would have to figure out should they re-sign McCutchen. You need quality backup options at this up-the-middle positions. They can be awfully hard to fill.

Yankeemetrics: Smackdown at Tropicana Field (Sept. 24-27)

Source: https://bloghyped.com/mailbag-wild-card-game-chapman-realmuto-goldschmidt/

[yahoo-puck-daddy-blog]

What We Learned: The Wild are going to be expensive, but will they be good?

The Wild have a large range of outcomes for 2018-19. (Photo by Jason Halstead /Getty Images)

Off the top of your head, where do you see the Minnesota Wild finishing in the Central this season?

They’re only technically in the same league as the division’s twin titans of Nashville and Winnipeg, which seem destined to finish 1-2  (you pick the order).

Of course, the Wild finished in that third spot last year; a distant third, mind you, with a 13-point gap between Winnipeg and themselves. And that came with some serious ups and downs; they were one of the worst possession teams in the league last year, and really only got to where they were because of an a PDO that was ninth-highest in the league.

And to be fair, they had a number of key players miss a pretty good amount of time. Jared Spurgeon only played 61 games. Zach Parise just 47. Nino Niederreiter checked in at only 63. Those are all very useful players and if they’re missing a quarter or close to half of a season, your on-ice results are going to suffer, especially if they miss a bunch of games at the same time.

But at the same time, Eric Staal scored 42 goals and 76 points. Jason Zucker cleared 30 in both goals and assists. Mikael Granlund had 67 points. Ryan Suter and Matt Dumba both hit 50 points from the blue line. Devan Dubnyk was once again top-notch at .918 in 60 appearances.

The problem for the Wild, then, is that the rest of the division seems to be improving, and it was pretty tightly packed around the middle of the Central to begin with. Nine points separated Minnesota from sixth-place Dallas, with Colorado and St. Louis between them. I would argue that all those teams improved this offseason, and Chicago should be (much) better if Corey Crawford is fully healthy, even if they’re not the Chicago of old.

Note that many of the Wild players I just listed as having enjoyed great seasons are, for the most part, outside their prime production years. Staal and Suter will turn 34 during next season. Spurgeon will turn 29. Dubnyk just turned 32. Other teams have aging producers as well, obviously, but these were some pretty outsized years from past-their-primes players, so it’ll be interesting to see what they can actually put together in 2018-19.

The real problem with the Wild, though, is the playoff format. The gap between Nashville/Winnipeg and the rest of that division is so significant in terms of on-paper quality (you can never guess when injury or quirky underperformance will rear their heads) that you’re better off finishing in the wild card spot in the division and taking your chances with the winner of the Pacific than finishing third and getting as brutally crumpled as the Wild did in the first round last year.

And with the new contract Matt Dumba signed over the weekend — five years with a $6 million AAV, the value of which I’ll get to in a minute here — this team is about $5.6 million south of the cap limit, and still have to re-sign Zucker, who has 111 points over the last two seasons. That scoring total ties him for 63rd in the league in that time, just ahead of Jordan Eberle and Sean Couturier, for instance, and likely means he’s going to be looking for a fat paycheck. That probably pushed Minnesota up around the absolute top of the league in terms of cap obligations.

(Also worth noting: There are few Bruce Boudreau stans in the hockey media bigger than me, but my man only has so much to work with, y’know?)

So this is a cap-limit team with a first-round-limit ceiling in the playoffs unless things go very heavily their way. This is, I guess, why the team brought in a new front office crew this summer; there’s a recognition that they’ve built a rather expensive team that probably reached its peak in terms of reasonable competition within the division, let alone the Western Conference or league writ large. And with so many of their top players (such as they are) on the wrong side of 30, one wonders how much longer this approach is going to be kept up.

Simply put, seventy-nine-point-something million dollars a year to get bounced in the early rounds of the playoffs again isn’t and shouldn’t be viewed as a tenable situation, but as I wrote repeatedly like four or five years, simply paying a lot of money to players who are above-average but certainly not stars in the league doesn’t make them worth their contracts. The Parise and Suter contracts don’t expire for seven more seasons and it’s a hell of a lot of money to spend on two guys whose impact on the ice is going to diminish.

The good news is there aren’t too many long-term commitments otherwise — Dumba and Niedereitter, both of whom are under 26, are the only other guys signed for more than the next three seasons — and the team does have some promising, youngish players to supplement the old guard. That Dumba contract is probably a little too much in terms of AAV, but he has 35 goals over the last three seasons and you gotta pay for guys like that, I guess.

Only 12 defensemen in the salary cap era besides Dumba have cleared 50 points in a season before the age of 24, so what are you gonna do? The term is fine, for sure, but Dumba doesn’t really move the needle in terms of underlying numbers; he’s still improving given his age, but paying a lot for that particular player seems more optimistic than rational. Because of those 13 defensemen, only eight repeated their 50-performances at least once before turning 28.

Nice to have young players who can make an impact, certainly, but the Wild fall into that classic trap of having a number of goodish, cheapish young guys and goodish, expensive old guys and very little in between, which doesn’t allow for a continuity of quality over years.

And with this team in particular, what even is that quality, really? Can you really afford to run out the clock with all these early-to-mid-20s and mid-30s players over the next three years if this is where you’re gonna get?

While anyone can get on a hot run and make a deep playoff push, the Wild don’t really have a realistic chance to do that unless they land outside their own division for the playoffs. Which is theoretically possible, but in actual practice you shouldn’t want to hope you finish seventh or eighth in the West to get a viable path to the Conference Final, where you’re likely to get clubbed anyway.

So the Wild, again, seem to be at a crossroads with the direction of their franchise, but none of their paths forward seem particularly favorable.

What We Learned

Anaheim Ducks: They’re officially bringing back, well, a version of the original Mighty Ducks jersey, which should just be their actual jersey anyway. This one kinda stinks but what are you gonna do?

Arizona Coyotes: God if the Coyotes are worth $500 million, what’s Vegas worth now, a year after paying that same amount of money to be a team?

Boston Bruins: The cool thing about if the Bruins got Artemi Panarin? He would be the second-best left wing on the team.

Buffalo Sabres: Casey Mittelstadt looks like he could soon be a difference-maker at the NHL level, which is probably a little ahead of schedule to be honest.

Calgary Flames: The Flames love putting useful young depth players on waivers for no reason, but at least they didn’t lose Brett Kulak for nothing like they did Paul Byron.

Carolina Hurricanes: I would not recommend making a 19-year-old rookie your No. 1 center, no.

Chicago: Jonathan Toews wants a big bounce-back season for himself and his team. I want a million dollars. Nice to want things.

Colorado Avalanche: The Avs are probably going to avoid arbitration with Patrik Nemeth and that’s the only guy they need to re-sign at this point.

Columbus Blue Jackets: *Craig Finn voice* Don’t let Oliver Bjorkstrand explode!!!!

Dallas Stars: You can say what you want about the Stars but there really aren’t that many bad contracts on the books.

Detroit Red Wings: Wow the Red Wings might actually play talented kids instead of mediocre 29-year-olds in important situations. Signs and wonders.

Edmonton Oilers: Put Joe Gambardella in the NHL. Yes. Do it. Think about where he went to college and don’t be a coward!!!

Florida Panthers: Vinnie Viola is selling his mansion in New Jersey and I’m buying it.

Los Angeles Kings: A great mid-July pastime is to look at NHL signings and guess what percentage of them are AHL-quality goons. Here’s one now.

Minnesota Wild: The Wild have a new AHL head coach and it seems like when you’re hiring guys out of the Penguins coaching system you’re making a good decision.

Montreal Canadiens: This is brutal.

Nashville Predators: Yes. Thanks for asking.

New Jersey Devils: Only roster eight defensemen if you’re gonna play seven every night. Which, by the way, you should do that.

New York Islanders: Frankly, gang, I don’t know that they have much of a choice in the whole “should we tank?” discussion.

New York Rangers: When the richest and biggest-name teams in the league are openly saying they’re “rebuilding” that should be a good indication that it’s a perfectly okay thing for every team to do when needed.

Ottawa Senators: This is going really great.

Philadelphia Flyers: Man, that Forsberg-to-Nashville trade effectively got the Flyers Scottie Upshall, Ryan Parent, Scott Hartnell, and Kimmo Timonen plus a third-round pick? Good lord!

Pittsburgh Penguins: Okay, sure, Derek Grant. That’s someone.

San Jose Sharks: Chris Tierney? That’s even more someone.

St. Louis Blues: This is a take where I go, “Ahhhh, maybe?” Which kinda defeats the purpose of the take.

Tampa Bay Lightning: Really feels like everyone in Tampa is just sitting around going, “Well jeez hey when’s this Karlsson thing happening? Soon? Soon. Gotta be soon.”

Toronto Maple Leafs: Andreas Johnsson‘s one of those guys where it’s like, “Yeah he’s probably a real player.” He went point-a-game in his second AHL season and 1.5 a game in the playoffs. Granted, that’s on a stacked team, but he’s 23 and a guy who can score like that is probably a good bottom-six option at an absolute minimum.

Vancouver Canucks: I would not want to be in the business of extending Alex Edler, despite his long-term status with the org.

Vegas Golden Knights: It’s really too bad the Golden Knights didn’t have to change their name. That would have been so funny.

Washington Capitals: Yeah, no.

Winnipeg Jets: I’m gonna write more about Trouba this week but: yikes.

Gold Star Award

Maybe this makes me a kook in hockey circles but every NHL team should have as many jerseys as they want. Who cares as long as they’re cool or weird or whatever? I don’t like the Ducks’ new “classic-inspired” thirds but at least they’re trying something. More throwbacks would be a good thing.

Minus of the Weekend

This is some kinda take.

Perfect HFBoards Trade Proposal of the Week

User “Kshahdoo” loves this time of year.

STL gets Panarin (but only with extention) Toronto gets Parayko Columbus gets Nylander

Signoff

Help! Help!

Ryan Lambert is a Puck Daddy columnist. His email is here and his Twitter is here.

(All stats via Corsica unless otherwise noted.)