#the near future is all WWIII and Eugenics Wars

[blackbirds-on-the-marsh]

“Star Trek is about hope for the future*”

*the very, very distant future

[random-thought-depository]

One of the things that’s interesting about Space Seed is the way it makes the Star Trek universe a de facto alternate history setting. Based on the bits dropped there and elsewhere in TOS, their later twentieth and early twenty-first century looked very different from our later twentieth and early twenty-first centuries!

The Eugenics Wars supposedly happened in the 1990s. The Star Trek original series ran from 1966-69, so this would have been about 25-30 years in the future at the time; the 1990s were for 1960s people what the 2050s are to us in 2020. So, not a bad time frame for events that were supposed to be near-future-ish but not immediate.

Or, another way of looking at it, from the viewpoint of 1960s people, the Eugenics Wars would have been about as far in the future as WWII was in the past. I get the impression history felt faster in the ‘60s, because of proximity of the great upheavals of the earlier twentieth century, and because the space race and the counterculture were ongoing big things, and because after 1970 or so technological progress slowed because a lot of the technological “low-hanging fruit” was picked. Think about how much the world changed from 1940 to 1967! People expected that pace of change to continue in the future. Thus all the middle twentieth century expectations that we’d have moon colonies and commercial fusion power and so on by the early 2000s; the sort of expectations you see in science fiction like 2001. The original Star Trek series was very much part of that trend, projecting manned space exploration of the other solar system planets and suspended animation technology and genetically engineered superhumans in the late twentieth and early twenty-first centuries. There’s a line in Space Seed when Kirk, Spock, etc. are first taking a look around Khan’s ship, that went approximately “Yeah, they used suspended animation in exploration ships back then cause back then it took years just to reach other planets of the solar system, interplanetary travel with faster ships that didn’t need suspended animation only started in 2018.” As somebody sitting in a timeline where it’s now 2021 and Luna is still the most distant world a human has walked on, hearing that sure made me feel something!

I remember somebody once commenting that Star Trek TOS’s vision of the late twentieth and early twenty-first centuries reflected an idea, common during the ‘60s, that very soon we’d either get our act together or blow ourselves up. And I think what that comment was getting at was... There was an expectation that failure to do the former would quickly result in the latter so it was going to be one or the other. Something like our timeline, where we just sort of muddled through for the next fifty years, wasn’t expected; they’d have expected a scenario like that to have ended in the blow ourselves up outcome by now.

I think later Star Trek tried to kinda soft-retcon the timeline of the Eugenics Wars but never committed to explicitly changing it. According to First Contact, the “Third World War” happened around the 2050s (and this was building off stuff we saw in TNG). I think the implication is supposed to be that WWIII was the Eugenics Wars, but that requires ignoring some very explicit statements of dates in Space Seed and Wrath of Khan, and as I said, they never explicitly committed to a retcon. If we take what we see in the show at face value we’d conclude the Eugenics Wars and WWIII were two separate conflicts separated by about 50 years. Which makes it seem a bit weird that the Eugenics Wars apparently weren’t counted as a world war; based on the descriptions of them in Space Seed they were very destructive! Maybe the United States and the rest of the Americas and Australia and the Oceania nations stayed neutral, so they’re considered technically not a world war? Maybe they were less a single big war with two clearly defined sides and more a big mess of smaller interconnected conflicts like IIRC the Hundred Years War and the Thirty Years War?

Which... Star Trek has a reputation as the big optimistic science fiction, but this is making Star Trek Earth’s history from 1950 to 2070-ish look rather dystopian! We won’t be able to fully judge their history against ours until 2070 or so, but so far our post-WWII history looks more peaceful than their post-WWII history! One of the defining and good features of the post-WWII age is that it’s a long period of relative peace; it doesn’t sound like the people on Star Trek Earth would be saying the same thing from the vantage point of their 2021. I guess civilization blowing itself up every two generations would still be an improvement on the early twentieth century pattern of civilization blowing itself up every generation...

I think there have been some Star Trek novels written about the Eugenics Wars, and they squared it with real history by portraying it as a covert conflict that most people are the time were completely unaware of, kind of like the stuff that happens in Stargate and Men In Black? Eh, the descriptions of the Eugenics Wars in Space Seed really don’t fit with that idea. And I’ll just say that I don’t really like that “it’s all secret and the regular people have no idea any of this happening” trope; it’s OK in the right context but it’s got implications that limit storytelling and undertones of elitism I don’t like and I think a lot of the time it’s kind of lazy. If I were to just roll with the dates given for the Eugenics Wars, I’d take the approach of just leaning into the Star Trek universe being an honorary alternate history setting; I’d headcanon Star Trek Earth’s later twentieth and early twenty-first centuries as being 2001-ish, with commercial fusion power and moon colonies and crewed expeditions to the other planets of the solar system and lots of “futuristic” stuff (like, y’know, the process that created Khan) by the ‘90s and ‘00s. Admittedly I’m not sure how to square this with Star Trek: the Voyage Home, which mostly takes place in a 1980s that seems real-world-ish; it’d take some creative interpretation to reconcile them.

And, y’know... In some ways, Star Trek Earth’s late twentieth and early twenty-first century look better and more interesting than ours. Their world is clearly much more technologically advanced! Their space program is far more advanced than ours! On the other, looking at the descriptions of the Eugenics Wars ... if we had to choose, I think it might be a good thing that we got our history and not their history. Khan Noonien Singh sounds like a guy who’s inflicted a lot more death and suffering than Donald Trump and COVID19 ever will. Compared to Star Trek Earth’s late twentieth and early twenty-first century, our late twentieth and early twenty-first century is kind of boring, and sometimes boring is good.

And all this makes me think of something Chris Wayan (the Planetocopia guy) said about the Randomia principle:

“Let's say you're contemplating Randomia, an alternate Earth no better or worse than ours, with roughly the same biomass, same amount of arable land, about the same population... just re-distributed. Now, what regions will you notice the most? First, your home, of course, and then, other well-known regions--and well-known means inhabited.

Randomia will always look inferior! For, by definition, most readers will be from our world's high-population zones. Random changes will, on average, degrade them. And the lands that improve, that become the heartlands of Randomia's civilizations, are likely to be barren obscure lands in our world, mere names (if that) to non-Randomian readers. The Turnovian version of Europe is cold (millions of European readers groan), while the green Sahara nurtures great civilizations (a handful of Saharan readers cheer). If you love civilization, Randomia will probably kill or cripple the ones you love, and plant its greatest civilizations in places you associate with backwardness.

So the grass always looks browner in a parallel world--because what you value most, what you KNOW to value, is generally lost. This principle makes it hard to see alternate worlds fairly.”

The long post-WWII peace is something that hadn’t happened yet in the 1960s, therefore when Star Trek writers wrote a future history that didn’t contain it, they didn’t know they were writing a history that didn’t contain something important and good about the real history that was actually going to unfold. From the vantage point of 1967, it was optimistic to assume there wouldn’t be a nuclear war in the 1970s or 1980s! We, in 2021, can look back on the post-WWII period of relative peace that stretches 70 years long behind us, and know that our timeline contains this important good thing.

On the other hand, my perspective is also influenced by this Randomia effect; the more advanced technology of Star Trek 2021 Earth likely implies less poverty and more advanced medicine, which over a few decades might have saved more lives than the Eugenic Wars ended, making their timeline net better than ours (though containing great tragedies we avoided). One could certainly choose to imagine their world as being that way!